The recent debate over copyright laws like SOPA in the United States and the ACTA agreement in Europe has been very emotional. And I think some dispassionate, quantitative reasoning could really bring a great deal to the debate. I'd therefore like to propose that we employ, we enlist, the cutting edge field of copyright math whenever we approach this subject.
Nedavna debata oko zakona o autorskim pravima kao što je SOPA u Sjedinjenim Državama i ACTA ugovor u Evropi je bila vrlo emotivna. Smatram da bi nepristrasno i kvantitativno argumentovanje moglo da doprinese ovoj raspravi. Želeo bih da predložim da uposlimo, regrutujemo, vrhunsko polje matematike zaštite autorskih prava kada god pristupamo ovoj temi.
For instance, just recently the Motion Picture Association revealed that our economy loses 58 billion dollars a year to copyright theft. Now rather than just argue about this number, a copyright mathematician will analyze it and he'll soon discover that this money could stretch from this auditorium all the way across Ocean Boulevard to the Westin, and then to Mars ... (Laughter) ... if we use pennies.
Na primer, nedavno Kinematografsko društvo Amerike je obelodanilo da naša ekonomija gubi oko 58 milijardi dolara godišnje zbog piraterije. Umesto da raspravljamo o ovom broju, matematičari koji analiziraju ovaj problem će shvatiti da je ovaj novac moguće rastegnuti od ove sale preko bulevara Okean do Vestina, pa do Marsa... (Smeh) ukoliko koristimo penije.
Now this is obviously a powerful, some might say dangerously powerful, insight. But it's also a morally important one. Because this isn't just the hypothetical retail value of some pirated movies that we're talking about, but this is actual economic losses. This is the equivalent to the entire American corn crop failing along with all of our fruit crops, as well as wheat, tobacco, rice, sorghum -- whatever sorghum is -- losing sorghum.
Očigledno je da je ovo veoma moćno, neki bi rekli opasno moćno. Ali je takođe etički bitno. Jer, to nije samo hipotetička maloprodajna vrednost nekih piratizovanih filmova o kojima govorimo, ovo je zapravo pravi ekonomski gubitak. Ovo je ekvivalent propasti proizvodnje useva, zajedno sa proizvodnjom voća, pšenice, duvana, riže, šećerne trske, štagod da je šećerna trska, cele Amerike.
But identifying the actual losses to the economy is almost impossible to do unless we use copyright math. Now music revenues are down by about eight billion dollars a year since Napster first came on the scene. So that's a chunk of what we're looking for. But total movie revenues across theaters, home video and pay-per-view are up. And TV, satellite and cable revenues are way up. Other content markets like book publishing and radio are also up. So this small missing chunk here is puzzling.
Određivanje tačnih ekonomskih gubitaka je gotovo nemoguće ukoliko ne koristimo matematiku zaštite autorskih prava. Prihodi muzičke industrije se smanjuju za 8 milijardi svake godine od kako se Nepster prvi put pojavio. To je deo onoga što tražimo. Ukupna zarada na filmovima preko bioskopa, kućnih videa i plati-pa-gledaj je u porastu. Prihodi preko TV-a, satelitske i kablovske TV su takođe u porastu. Druga tržišta kao izdavaštvo i radio su takođe u porastu. Dakle, ovaj deo koji nedostaje je zbunjujuć.
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Since the big content markets have grown in line with historic norms, it's not additional growth that piracy has prevented, but copyright math tells us it must therefore be foregone growth in a market that has no historic norms -- one that didn't exist in the 90's. What we're looking at here is the insidious cost of ringtone piracy. (Laughter) 50 billion dollars of it a year, which is enough, at 30 seconds a ringtone, that could stretch from here to Neanderthal times. (Laughter) It's true. (Applause) I have Excel.
Od kada su ovakva tržišta u porastu u smislu istorijskih normi, piraterija nije sprečila dodatnu zaradu ali matematika zaštite autorskih prava nam govori da to mora da bude prepušteni rast na tržištu koje nema istorijske norme, ono koje nije postojalo pre devedesetih. Ono što se dešava jeste podmuklo bogaćenje na piratizovanim zvucima za telefon. (Smeh) 50 milijardi dolara godišnje, što je sasvim dovoljno, 30 sekundi po zvuku za telefon, može da se razvuče odavde do vremena Neandertalaca. (Smeh) Istina je. (aplauz) Ja posedujem Eksel.
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The movie folks also tell us that our economy loses over 370,000 jobs to content theft, which is quite a lot when you consider that, back in '98, the Bureau of Labor Statistics indicated that the motion picture and video industries were employing 270,000 people. Other data has the music industry at about 45,000 people. And so the job losses that came with the Internet and all that content theft, have therefore left us with negative employment in our content industries. And this is just one of the many mind-blowing statistics that copyright mathematicians have to deal with every day. And some people think that string theory is tough.
Filmski radnici nam takođe govore da naša ekonomija gubi preko 370 hiljada radnih mesta zbog piraterije, a to je mnogo kada uzmete u obzir da je 1998. Biro za statistiku rada ukazao da je kinematografija i industrija video igara upošljavala oko 270 hiljada ljudi. Drugi podaci govore da muzička industrija zapošljava oko 45 hiljada. Gubici radnih mesta koji dolaze sa pojavom Interneta i svom tom piraterijom, nam ostavljaju rast nezaposlenosti u ovim industrijskim granama. Ovo je samo jedna od mnogih začuđujućih statistika sa kojima ovi matematičari moraju da se suočavaju svaki dan. Neki misle da je teorija struna teška.
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Now this is a key number from the copyright mathematicians' toolkit. It's the precise amount of harm that comes to media companies whenever a single copyrighted song or movie gets pirated. Hollywood and Congress derived this number mathematically back when they last sat down to improve copyright damages and made this law. Some people think this number's a little bit large, but copyright mathematicians who are media lobby experts are merely surprised that it doesn't get compounded for inflation every year.
Ovo je ključna cifra za ove matematičare. To je tačna količina štete koju trpe medijske kuće kad god se jedna autorizovana pesma ili film piratizuju. Holivud i Kongres su ovaj broj dobili matematički poslednji put kada su procenjivali štetu zbog piraterije i kada su skovali ovaj zakon. Neki misle da je ovaj broj preterano velik, ali matematičari koji su eksperti medijskog lobija su potpuno iznenađeni što se ovo ne komplikuje zbog inflacije.
Now when this law first passed, the world's hottest MP3 player could hold just 10 songs. And it was a big Christmas hit. Because what little hoodlum wouldn't want a million and a half bucks-worth of stolen goods in his pocket.
Kada je ovaj zakon prvi put donet, tadašnji MP3 plejer je mogao da sadrži samo 10 pesama. I to je bila glavna stvar tog Božića. Jer koja mala bitanga ne želi kradenu robu vrednosti od milion dolara u svom džepu.
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These days an iPod Classic can hold 40,000 songs, which is to say eight billion dollars-worth of stolen media. (Applause) Or about 75,000 jobs.
Današnji iPod može da sadrži i do 40 hiljada pesama, što je 8 milijardi dolara piratizovanog sadržaja. (Aplauz) Iliti 75 hiljada radnih mesta.
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Now you might find copyright math strange, but that's because it's a field that's best left to experts. So that's it for now. I hope you'll join me next time when I will be making an equally scientific and fact-based inquiry into the cost of alien music piracy to he American economy.
Možda će vam se ovakva matematika učiniti čudnom, ali to je zato što je ona jedno polje koje je najbolje prepustiti ekspertima. To bi bilo to za sada. Nadam se da ćete mi se pridružiti sledeći put kada ću se takođe osloniti na nauku procenjujući štetu piratizovane vanzemaljske muzike na američku ekonomiju.
Thank you very much.
Hvala najlepše.
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Thank you.
Hvala.
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