The recent debate over copyright laws like SOPA in the United States and the ACTA agreement in Europe has been very emotional. And I think some dispassionate, quantitative reasoning could really bring a great deal to the debate. I'd therefore like to propose that we employ, we enlist, the cutting edge field of copyright math whenever we approach this subject.
Nedavna debata o zakonodaji o avtorskih pravicah, kot je SOPA v ZDA in ACTA v Evropi, je bila nadvse čustvena. Zato mislim, da bi neprizadet in kvantitativen pogled bistveno prispeval k temu dialogu. Zato bi rad predlagal, da uporabimo popolnoma novo znanost matematike avtorskih pravic, vsakič, ko govorimo o tem področju.
For instance, just recently the Motion Picture Association revealed that our economy loses 58 billion dollars a year to copyright theft. Now rather than just argue about this number, a copyright mathematician will analyze it and he'll soon discover that this money could stretch from this auditorium all the way across Ocean Boulevard to the Westin, and then to Mars ... (Laughter) ... if we use pennies.
Na primer, pred kratkim je organizacija Motion Picture Association razkrila, da naše gospodarstvo na leto izgubi 58 milijard USD zaradi kraje intelektualne lastnine. Namesto, da bi se prerekal o tej številki, jo matematik avtorskih pravic raje analizira in kmalu ugotovi, da bi se lahko ta vsota raztezala od te dvorane preko ulice Ocean Boulevard do hotela Westin in nato do Marsa... (smeh) ...če uporabimo kovance za en peni.
Now this is obviously a powerful, some might say dangerously powerful, insight. But it's also a morally important one. Because this isn't just the hypothetical retail value of some pirated movies that we're talking about, but this is actual economic losses. This is the equivalent to the entire American corn crop failing along with all of our fruit crops, as well as wheat, tobacco, rice, sorghum -- whatever sorghum is -- losing sorghum.
To je očitno izjemno prepričljiv, morda celo nevarno prepričljiv podatek. Ob tem pa je pomemben tudi z moralnega vidika. Tu ne gre le za hipotetično maloprodajno vrednost piratiziranih filmov, temveč za dejanske gospodarske izgube. Ta izguba je enaka, kot da bi izpadla celotna ameriška žetev koruze, sadja, pšenice, tobaka, riža, sireka... karkoli že je sirek.
But identifying the actual losses to the economy is almost impossible to do unless we use copyright math. Now music revenues are down by about eight billion dollars a year since Napster first came on the scene. So that's a chunk of what we're looking for. But total movie revenues across theaters, home video and pay-per-view are up. And TV, satellite and cable revenues are way up. Other content markets like book publishing and radio are also up. So this small missing chunk here is puzzling.
Toda dejanske izgube v gospodarstvu je skoraj nemogoče v celoti oceniti, če ne uporabimo matematike avtorskih pravic. Prihodki od glasbe so se letno zmanjšali za približno osem milijard USD odkar se je prvič pojavil Napster. Tu lahko torej odkrijemo del teh izgub. Toda skupni prihodki od filmov v kinodvoranah, domačem videu in plačljivem videu so se povečali. Prihodki tv postaj, satelitske in kabelske tv pa so se zelo povečali. Drugi trgi z vsebinami, kot sta založništvo knjig in radio, so tudi rasli. Torej nam ta mali manjkajoči košček dela sive lase.
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Since the big content markets have grown in line with historic norms, it's not additional growth that piracy has prevented, but copyright math tells us it must therefore be foregone growth in a market that has no historic norms -- one that didn't exist in the 90's. What we're looking at here is the insidious cost of ringtone piracy. (Laughter) 50 billion dollars of it a year, which is enough, at 30 seconds a ringtone, that could stretch from here to Neanderthal times. (Laughter) It's true. (Applause) I have Excel.
Ker so veliki trgi z vsebinami rasli v skladu z zgodovinskimi normami, piratstvo ni preprečilo dodatne rasti, a matematika avtorskih pravic nam pove, da mora zato biti izgubljena rast na trgu, ki nima zgodovinskih norm - ker v 90-ih še ni obstajal. Kar tukaj vidimo, je zahrbtni strošek piratiziranja melodij zvonjenja telefonov. (smeh) 50 milijard USD na leto, kar je, pri 30 sekundah na melodijo, dovolj, da sega nazaj do neandertalcev. (smeh) Resnično. (aplavz) Imam Excel.
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(smeh)
The movie folks also tell us that our economy loses over 370,000 jobs to content theft, which is quite a lot when you consider that, back in '98, the Bureau of Labor Statistics indicated that the motion picture and video industries were employing 270,000 people. Other data has the music industry at about 45,000 people. And so the job losses that came with the Internet and all that content theft, have therefore left us with negative employment in our content industries. And this is just one of the many mind-blowing statistics that copyright mathematicians have to deal with every day. And some people think that string theory is tough.
Filmska industrija nam govori tudi, da gospodarstvo zaradi kraje vsebin izgubi več kot 370.000 delovnih mest, kar je kar precej, če upoštevate, da je v letu 1998 ameriški Urad za statistiko dela navedel, da filmska industrija zaposluje 270.000 ljudi. (smeh) Drugi podatki kažejo, da glasbena industrija zaposluje 45.000 ljudi. Tako sta nas izguba delovnih mest, ki je prišla z internetom, in vsa ta kraja vsebin pustila z negativno zaposlenostjo v naši industriji vsebin. In to je samo ena od neverjetnih statistik, s katerimi se matematiki avtorskih pravic dnevno soočajo. Nekateri pa mislijo, da je teorija strun težka.
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Now this is a key number from the copyright mathematicians' toolkit. It's the precise amount of harm that comes to media companies whenever a single copyrighted song or movie gets pirated. Hollywood and Congress derived this number mathematically back when they last sat down to improve copyright damages and made this law. Some people think this number's a little bit large, but copyright mathematicians who are media lobby experts are merely surprised that it doesn't get compounded for inflation every year.
To je ključna številka med orodji matematikov avtorskih pravic. Je natančna vsota škode, ki jo utrpijo medijska podjetja, vsakič, ko se ena pesem ali film z avtorskimi pravicami spiratizira. Hollywood in ameriški kongres sta to številko matematično izpeljala, ko sta nazadnje skupaj sedla, da bi izboljšala odškodnine zaradi kršenja avtorskih pravic in naredila ta zakon. Nekaterim se zdi ta številka nekoliko visoka, a matematiki avtorskih pravic, ki so eksperti medijskega lobiranja, so le presenečeni, da se ne uskladi vsako leto z inflacijo.
Now when this law first passed, the world's hottest MP3 player could hold just 10 songs. And it was a big Christmas hit. Because what little hoodlum wouldn't want a million and a half bucks-worth of stolen goods in his pocket.
Ko je bil ta zakon prvič sprejet, je najboljši MP3 predvajalnik na svetu lahko vseboval vsega 10 pesmi. In bil je velik božični hit. Kajti le kateri mali lopov si v svojem žepu ne bi želel ukradene robe vredne milijona in pol čukov.
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These days an iPod Classic can hold 40,000 songs, which is to say eight billion dollars-worth of stolen media. (Applause) Or about 75,000 jobs.
Te dni lahko na iPod Classic naložimo 40.000 pesmi, kar je za 8 milijard dolarjev ukradene glasbe. (aplavz) Ali približno 75.000 delovnih mest.
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Now you might find copyright math strange, but that's because it's a field that's best left to experts. So that's it for now. I hope you'll join me next time when I will be making an equally scientific and fact-based inquiry into the cost of alien music piracy to he American economy.
Matematika avtorskih pravic se vam morda zdi čudna, a le zato, ker je to področje bolje prepustiti strokovnjakom. To je zaenkrat vse. Upam, da se mi pridružite naslednjič, ko bom na enako znanstven način in na podlagi dejstev pogledal, kakšne stroške ameriškemu gospodarstvu povzroča vesoljsko piratiziranje glasbe.
Thank you very much.
Najlepša hvala.
(Applause)
(aplavz)
Thank you.
Hvala.
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