Africa is perhaps the continent that needs least convincing about the clean energy opportunity for health, livelihoods and economy. As the fastest-growing, yet least-electrified continent on the globe most in need of power systems that can help fortify against the onslaught of climate shocks and with both abundant fossil and renewable energy resources to build them, Africa's energy transitions and how to dissuade the use of fossil fuels have become an intense international debate. But what the debates often miss is that Africa is not a single story.
非洲也许是最不需要 说服人们相信清洁能源可以 为健康、生计和经济带来机遇的大陆。 作为发展最快,但电气化 程度全球最低的大陆, 非洲最需要的是 能抵抗气候冲击的电力系统。 在拥有丰富的化石能源 和可再生能源资源的情况下, 非洲的能源转型以及 如何劝阻化石燃料的使用 已经成为一场激烈的国际辩论。 但这些争论大多忽略了一件事, 即非洲的问题并不是个例。
As an energy systems modeler, I can tell you that though the baseline is low, where they do have power, many Sub-Saharan African countries already rely on low-carbon resources. Kenya, where I live, generates 90 percent of its power from renewables like geothermal and hydropower. Even in West Africa, where renewable shares tend to be lower, countries like Ghana generate over a third of their power from renewable energy resources. And countries like Namibia are at the forefront of innovation on clean fuels like green hydrogen. Couple all of that with housing one of the world's largest carbon sinks, the Congo Basin, and Sub-Saharan Africa is consistently recognized as pulling more than its fair share of the global decarbonization effort.
作为电力系统的建模师, 我可以肯定地说, 即使基线很低, 许多拥有电力的、 撒哈拉沙漠以南的非洲国家 已经能依靠低碳资源生活。 肯尼亚,我居住的地方, 它 90% 的电力都来自可再生能源, 如:地热能和水能。 甚至在可再生能源更少的西非也是如此。 像加纳这样的国家 有超过三分之一的电力 来自于可再生能源。 而像纳米比亚这样的国家 则在绿色氢气等清洁燃料的 创新方面处于领先地位。 再加上拥有世界上 最大的碳汇之一的刚果盆地, 撒哈拉以南非洲一直被认为 在全球去碳化努力中承担了 超过其职责的份额。
So unlike the deep emissions reductions, and urgent pivot away from fossil fuels we need to see from heavy emitters, Sub-Saharan Africa and energy transitions are more a question of how to quickly ramp up generation and distribution capacities in ways that are affordable, accessible, resilient, while staying the course of climate compatibility.
因此,与我们需要 从重度排放国看到的 深度减排和化石燃料的 紧急转向不同, 撒哈拉以南非洲和能源转型 更重要的是如何以负担得起、 可获得、有弹性的方式 迅速提高发电和配电能力, 同时坚持气候兼容性。
So if the need is urgent and if the resources are bountiful, then why are we still so far away from this clean energy future for Africa? I've led the design and deployment of energy projects here myself. And I found and what I've learned is that though the world loves to remind Africa about its vast clean energy potential, the financial flows to deliver that potential remain troublingly scarce.
如果说需求是迫切的,资源是丰富的, 那为什么我们离在非洲使用 清洁能源的未来仍然如此遥远? 我曾在这里领导过 能源项目的设计和部署。 我发现和了解到的是, 尽管世界喜欢提醒非洲 其具有巨大的清洁能源潜力, 但挖掘这一潜力的现金流 依然是极度匮乏的。
Projects and businesses incur a number of hidden compounding costs and premiums. Like the risk perception premium. Or the “paying back your US dollar loan in a constantly depreciating local currency” premium. Or the “expected to deliver conventionally high rates of return while raising your revenues from customers that earn less than a dollar a day” premium. So international finance markets are not appetized and financial flows here remain a trickle despite a pipeline of ready projects. Effectively, this prioritizes risk to capital over risk to human life. In fact, though, 17 percent of the global population and almost 90 percent of those still without access to basic energy, today, Africa accounts for a mere two percent of global clean energy finance.
项目和企业会产生一些 隐藏的复合成本和溢价。 比如说风险认知溢价。 或者 “用不断贬值的当地货币 偿还美元贷款 “的溢价。 或者是 “希望提供常规的高回报率, 同时从每天收入低于一美元的 客户那里提高收入”的溢价。 所以,国际金融市场对此毫无兴趣, 尽管有一系列准备就绪的项目, 但这里的资金流动仍然是涓涓细流。 实际上,这将资本的风险置于 人类生命的风险之上。 事实上,全球人口的17% 或者说这 17% 的人口中 的 90% 仍然无法获得基本能源, 直到今天,非洲只占了 全球清洁能源融资的 2% 。
These realities of local enterprise rarely make it into the models or the debates, leaving us with a skewed perception of what transition really takes or why progress might seem so slow. From this perspective, we can see a key missing ingredient: International cooperation to deliver the finance flows that Africa sorely needs because there’s so much potential waiting right at the cusp. If local enterprise had access to long-term, low-cost financing, like their counterparts in other regions of the world can simply take for granted, then Africa's clean energy future would build itself. We know this because African communities, by their actions, show us the kinds of futures that they want.
地方企业的这些现实情况 很少被考虑进模型中, 也很少出现在那些争论中, 这使我们对转型真正需要的东西、 或进展可能看起来如此 缓慢的原因产生歪曲的认知。 从这个角度来看,我们可以看到 一个关键的缺失因素: 即通过国际合作为非洲提供 其迫切需要的资金流, 因为在这个风口浪尖上 有如此多的潜力在等待我们发掘。 就像他们在世界其他地区的同行一样, 如果当地企业能够理所当然地 获得长期的、低成本的融资, 那么非洲的清洁能源 就能建设它自己的未来。 我们之所以知道这一点, 是因为非洲社区通过他们的行动, 向我们展示了他们想要的未来。
As our cushioned conferences wax on year after year, my friend Jeffrey runs a solar company that targets commercial and industrial customers, helping to kick-start what has become the fastest growing wave of solar across the continent. And also demonstrating that African businesses see value in being powered by renewables.
当我们的缓冲会议年复一年地进行时, 我的朋友杰弗里(Jeffrey) 经营着一家太阳能公司, 该公司的目标客户是商业和工业群体, 并帮助启动已经成为 整个非洲大陆增长最快的 太阳能使用热潮。 同时也证明非洲企业看到了 可再生能源供电的价值。
My neighborhood buddy, Samir, runs a solar irrigation company. It's estimated that about 95 percent of farmers in Africa still rely entirely on increasingly erratic rains. So this is a game changer for food security.
我的邻居萨米尔(Samir) 经营着一家太阳能灌溉公司。 据估计,大约 95% 的非洲农民 仍完全靠越来越不稳定的雨水灌溉。 因此,太阳能灌溉将改变游戏规则。
My former student, Phoebe, she now designs fuel-efficient cook stoves that reach into thousands of homes from Zambia to Mozambique, providing sustainable alternatives to what is actually the largest energy use on the continent, household cooking.
我之前有个学生,她叫菲比。 她现在设计的节能炉灶 已经进入赞比亚到莫桑比克的 成千上万个家庭。 这些炉灶为非洲大陆最大的 能源使用方——家庭烹饪, 提供可持续的替代方案。
And at the World Resources Institute, we support dozens of young Rwandan, Ugandan and Kenyan electric mobility start-ups that are revolutionizing the face of transit in East Africa.
而在世界资源研究所, 我们支持数十家年轻的卢旺达、 乌干达和肯尼亚的电动汽车初创企业, 这些企业将彻底改变 东非的交通面貌。
These are real people, real stories, real families representing a real wave of local enterprise, successfully serving communities across an entire spectrum of energy needs. These are real salaries, real rents, real mortgages, real savings being put on the line every day. Is that not the utmost confidence in Africa's clean energy business potential?
这些都是真实的人、 真实的故事、真实的家庭, 他们代表了当地企业的真实浪潮, 成功地为需要能源的社区提供服务。 这些是真实的工资、 真实的租金、真实的抵押贷款, 以及真实的储蓄, 人们愿意用它们去冒险。 这难道不是对非洲清洁能源的 商业潜力的最大信心吗?
Imagine how fast we could go and how far we could move if they had a level playing field instead of yet more obstacles to climb. And if they can be invested, then what excuse remains for those with the means and the responsibility?
想象一下,如果他们有一个 公平的竞争环境,而不是更多的障碍, 我们能走多快,能走多远。 如果他们可以得到投资, 那么那些有能力和责任的人 还有什么借口失败?
Africa is speaking. But it's not one story. It's not even 54 stories. It's the stories of thousands of communities mobilizing the features they want and inviting the world's partnership in it.
非洲在讲述它的故事。 但是,这不只是一个故事。 它甚至不是 54 个故事。 而是数以千计的社区 调动他们所需的能源、 并邀请世界参与其中的故事。
Partnership. Not charity, not a victim song, but fairness and cooperation. Ambitious, time-bound commitments to deliver long-term, low cost financing at scale from countries, banks and development finance institutions.
合作伙伴。 不是慈善,不是对受害者的同情 而是公平和合作。 国家、银行和提供发展基金的机构 做出雄心勃勃的、有时限的承诺, 以提供长期、低成本的大规模融资。
Two, increased concessional financing, not reclassified financing, that doesn’t just target the easily profitable projects, but that is leveraged to drive global capital to least-electrified communities.
第二点,增加优惠融资, 而不是重新分类的融资, 不只是针对容易获利的项目, 而是通过杠杆作用将全球资本 推向最电气化程度最低的社区。
And three. Programs that expand the access to that finance and initiatives that bolster local supply chains, generating value, revenues, employment and skills at home.
第三点, 增加融资渠道的方案、 实施支持当地供应链的举措, 在国内创造价值、 收入、就业和技能。
These are the solutions that the international community must make an urgent priority, even as African countries do their own homework to improve the local business environment. And this, delivering accessible, clean energy financing at scale will be a far more productive show of partnership and trust than debating what countries should do with their available resources.
这些都是国际社会必须作为 紧急优先事项的解决方案, 即使是非洲国家正在为改善 当地商业环境做出自己的努力。 比起争论各国应该如何利用其现有资源, 提供大规模的、可获得的清洁能源融资 才是一种更有成效的 伙伴关系和信任的展示。
Climate justice is heavy emitters cooperating to realize clean energy futures for those countries that have been denied, locked out of their fair share of a global carbon budget. So today, let's cut past the talk and focus on unleashing the avalanche of a clean-energy future that Africa is ready to deliver.
碳排放大国进行合作, 帮助那些无法获得全球碳预算的 公平份额的国家实现清洁能源的未来, 才是真正的气候正义。 所以今天,让我们抛开空谈, 把注意力放在如何释放 非洲准备带来的大量清洁能源的未来上。
Thank you.
谢谢。
(Cheers and applause)
(欢呼与掌声)