Let me tell you a story. It goes back 200 million years. It's a story of the neocortex, which means "new rind." So in these early mammals, because only mammals have a neocortex, rodent-like creatures. It was the size of a postage stamp and just as thin, and was a thin covering around their walnut-sized brain, but it was capable of a new type of thinking. Rather than the fixed behaviors that non-mammalian animals have, it could invent new behaviors. So a mouse is escaping a predator, its path is blocked, it'll try to invent a new solution. That may work, it may not, but if it does, it will remember that and have a new behavior, and that can actually spread virally through the rest of the community. Another mouse watching this could say, "Hey, that was pretty clever, going around that rock," and it could adopt a new behavior as well.
Htio bih vam ispričati priču. Ona počinje prije 200 milijuna godina To je priča o neokorteksu što znači "nova kora". Kod prvih sisavaca, jer samo sisavci imaju neokorteks, bića sličnih glodavcima. Neokorteks je bio veličine poštanske marke te jednako tanak, bio je to tanki sloj koji je bio omotan oko njihova mozga veličine oraha ali bio je sposoban za novu vrstu razmišljanja. Za razliku od utvrđenih ponašanja, tipičnih za ne-sisavce, neokorteks je mogao smisliti nove oblike ponašanja. Tako da miš koji bježi svom predatoru a put mu je blokiran pokušat će smisliti novo rješenje. Koje može biti uspješno ili ne ali ako bude uspješno, miš će to zapamtiti i stvoriti novo ponašanje koje se može viralno proširiti ostatkom zajednice. Drugi miš gledajući ovo bi mogao reći: "Hej, to je bilo baš pametno, tako zaobići kamen," i mogao bi također usvojiti to ponašanje.
Non-mammalian animals couldn't do any of those things. They had fixed behaviors. Now they could learn a new behavior but not in the course of one lifetime. In the course of maybe a thousand lifetimes, it could evolve a new fixed behavior. That was perfectly okay 200 million years ago. The environment changed very slowly. It could take 10,000 years for there to be a significant environmental change, and during that period of time it would evolve a new behavior.
Ne-sisavci nisu bili sposobni za nešto takvo. Oni su imali utvrđene oblike ponašanja. Mogli su naučiti novo ponašanje ali ne u toku jednog životnog vijeka. Možda u toku od tisuću života su mogli razviti novo utvrđeno ponašanje. To je bilo sasvim u redu prije 200 milijuna godina. Okoliš se mijenjao vrlo sporo. Moglo je proći i 10 000 godina da bi se dogodila značajnija promjena okoliša, a tijekom tog razdoblja mogli su razviti novo ponašanje.
Now that went along fine, but then something happened. Sixty-five million years ago, there was a sudden, violent change to the environment. We call it the Cretaceous extinction event. That's when the dinosaurs went extinct, that's when 75 percent of the animal and plant species went extinct, and that's when mammals overtook their ecological niche, and to anthropomorphize, biological evolution said, "Hmm, this neocortex is pretty good stuff," and it began to grow it. And mammals got bigger, their brains got bigger at an even faster pace, and the neocortex got bigger even faster than that and developed these distinctive ridges and folds basically to increase its surface area. If you took the human neocortex and stretched it out, it's about the size of a table napkin, and it's still a thin structure. It's about the thickness of a table napkin. But it has so many convolutions and ridges it's now 80 percent of our brain, and that's where we do our thinking, and it's the great sublimator. We still have that old brain that provides our basic drives and motivations, but I may have a drive for conquest, and that'll be sublimated by the neocortex into writing a poem or inventing an app or giving a TED Talk, and it's really the neocortex that's where the action is.
Sve je išlo svojim tijekom ali onda se nešto dogodilo. Prije 65 milijuna godina iznenada se dogodila silovita promjena okoliša. A zovemo je događaj Kreda-Tercijar izumiranja. Tada su izumrli dinosauri, tada je 75 posto životinjskih i biljnih vrsta izumrlo i tada su sisavci zauzeli svoju ekološku nišu i da antropomorfiziramo, biološka evolucija je rekla: "Hm, ovaj neokorteks je odlična stvar", i počela ga je razvijati. I sisavci su postajali sve veći i njihovi mozgovi su postajali veći još većom brzinom a neokorteks je postajao veći još brže od toga i razvio je prepoznatljive brazde i prijevoje kako bi povećao svoju površinu. Kad biste uzeli ljudski neokorteks i potpuno ga rastegli, bio bi veličine kuhinjske salvete a još uvijek bi bio tanke strukture. Otprilike je debljine kuhinjske salvete. Ali ima toliko vijuga i brazdi da sačinjava 80 posto našeg mozga, tu se odvijaju naši procesi razmišljanja i zadužen je za proces sublimiranja. Još uvijek imamo onaj stari mozak koji određuje naše osnovne nagone i motivacije ali ja mogu imati nagon za osvajanjem a to će neokorteks sublimirati u proces pisanja pjesme ili smišljanja aplikacije ili držanja govora na TED konferenciji i zapravo se u neokorteksu događa sva akcija.
Fifty years ago, I wrote a paper describing how I thought the brain worked, and I described it as a series of modules. Each module could do things with a pattern. It could learn a pattern. It could remember a pattern. It could implement a pattern. And these modules were organized in hierarchies, and we created that hierarchy with our own thinking. And there was actually very little to go on 50 years ago. It led me to meet President Johnson. I've been thinking about this for 50 years, and a year and a half ago I came out with the book "How To Create A Mind," which has the same thesis, but now there's a plethora of evidence. The amount of data we're getting about the brain from neuroscience is doubling every year. Spatial resolution of brainscanning of all types is doubling every year. We can now see inside a living brain and see individual interneural connections connecting in real time, firing in real time. We can see your brain create your thoughts. We can see your thoughts create your brain, which is really key to how it works.
Prije 50 godina sam napisao rad u kojem sam opisao kako sam mislio da mozak radi i opisao sam ga kao niz modula. Svaki modul je mogao nešto obavljati ali slijedeći uzorak. Mogao je naučiti uzorak, mogao je zapamtiti uzorak. Mogao je primijeniti uzorak. I ovi moduli su organizirani u hijerarhije, a mi stvaramo te hijerarhije svojim razmišljanjem. Bilo je vrlo malo informacija s kojim ste mogli raditi prije 50 godina. To me je dovelo do predsjednika Johnsona. Razmišljao sam o ovome 50 godina i prije godinu i pol izdao sam knjigu "Kako stvoriti um", koja ima istu postavku ali danas postoji mnoštvo dokaza. Količina podataka koju dobivamo o mozgu od neuroznanosti udvostručava se svake godine. Prostorna rezolucija skeniranja mozga svih vrsta se udvostručava svake godine. Danas možemo vidjeti unutrašnjost živog mozga i vidjeti pojedinačne među-neuronske veze kako se povezuju u realnom vremenu, kako ispaljuju impulse u relnom vremenu. Možemo vidjeti kako vaš mozak kreira misli. Možemo vidjeti kako vaše misli oblikuju vaš mozak, što je najbitnije u načinu kako radi.
So let me describe briefly how it works. I've actually counted these modules. We have about 300 million of them, and we create them in these hierarchies. I'll give you a simple example. I've got a bunch of modules that can recognize the crossbar to a capital A, and that's all they care about. A beautiful song can play, a pretty girl could walk by, they don't care, but they see a crossbar to a capital A, they get very excited and they say "crossbar," and they put out a high probability on their output axon. That goes to the next level, and these layers are organized in conceptual levels. Each is more abstract than the next one, so the next one might say "capital A." That goes up to a higher level that might say "Apple." Information flows down also. If the apple recognizer has seen A-P-P-L, it'll think to itself, "Hmm, I think an E is probably likely," and it'll send a signal down to all the E recognizers saying, "Be on the lookout for an E, I think one might be coming." The E recognizers will lower their threshold and they see some sloppy thing, could be an E. Ordinarily you wouldn't think so, but we're expecting an E, it's good enough, and yeah, I've seen an E, and then apple says, "Yeah, I've seen an Apple."
Dopustite mi da vam ukratko objasnim kako mozak radi. Zapravo, ja sam izbrojio ove module. Postoji negdje oko 300 milijuna modula i oblikujemo ih u hijerarhije. Dat ću vam jednostavan primjer. Imam gomilu modula koji mogu prepoznati poprečnu crticu velikog slova A i to je sve što ih zanima. Može svirati prelijepa pjesma, može proći prelijepa djevojka oni neće mariti za to, ali kad vide poprečnu crticu velikog slova A, uzbude se i kažu "poprečna crtica", i odašilju signal velike vjerojatnosti na izlaznom aksonu. Tada to prelazi na višu razinu, ovi slojevi su organizirani u konceptualne razine. Svaka sljedeća je apstraktnija od prethodne pa bi sljedeća mogla reći "veliko slovo A". To ide na višu razinu koja bi mogla reći "Auto". Informacija također ide prema dolje. Ako je identifikator auta vidio A-U-T-, pomislit će: " Hm, mislim da je jedno O vrlo vjerojatno", i poslat će signal svim O identifikatorima govoreći: "Pazite na slovo O, mislim da bi se jedno moglo pojaviti." 'O' identifikatori će sniziti svoj prag i ako vide neku brljotinu, mogla bi biti O. Obično to ne biste pomislili, ali sad kad očekujemo 'O', dovoljno je dobra, i da, vidio sam 'O', i tada auto kaže: "Da, vidio sam Auto".
Go up another five levels, and you're now at a pretty high level of this hierarchy, and stretch down into the different senses, and you may have a module that sees a certain fabric, hears a certain voice quality, smells a certain perfume, and will say, "My wife has entered the room."
Popnite se pet razina i sada ste na vrlo viskoj razini ove hijerarhije i spustite se prema različitim osjetilima, i mogli biste mati modul koji vidi određenu tkaninu, čuje određenu kvalitetu glasa, njuši određeni parfem, i reći će: "Moja žena je ušla u sobu".
Go up another 10 levels, and now you're at a very high level. You're probably in the frontal cortex, and you'll have modules that say, "That was ironic. That's funny. She's pretty."
Popnite se još 10 razina i sada ste na zaista visokoj razini. Vjerojatno se nalazite u frontalnom korteksu, i imat ćete module koji govore: " To je ironično. To je smiješno. Ona je lijepa."
You might think that those are more sophisticated, but actually what's more complicated is the hierarchy beneath them. There was a 16-year-old girl, she had brain surgery, and she was conscious because the surgeons wanted to talk to her. You can do that because there's no pain receptors in the brain. And whenever they stimulated particular, very small points on her neocortex, shown here in red, she would laugh. So at first they thought they were triggering some kind of laugh reflex, but no, they quickly realized they had found the points in her neocortex that detect humor, and she just found everything hilarious whenever they stimulated these points. "You guys are so funny just standing around," was the typical comment, and they weren't funny, not while doing surgery.
Mogli biste pomisliti da su oni sofisticiraniji, ali ono što je složenije jest hijerarhija koja se nalazi ispod njih. Jedna šesnaestogodišnja djevojka je imala operaciju na mozgu i bila je pri svijesti tijekom operacije jer su kirurzi željeli razgovarati s njom. To je moguće zato što nema receptora boli na mozgu. I kadgod su stimulirali određene, vrlo male točke na njezinom neokorteksu koje su ovdje pokazane crvenom bojom, ona se smijala. Prvotno su mislili da su pogodili nekakvu vrstu refleksa smijeha ali ne, ubrzo su shvatili da su pronašli točke njezinog neokorteksa koje prepoznaju humor, i njoj je jednostavno sve bilo smiješno kadgod su joj stimulirali ove točke. "Momci, što ste smiješni dok tako stojite tu", je bio uobičajen komentar, ali oni nisu bili smiješni bar ne dok su obavljali operaciju.
So how are we doing today? Well, computers are actually beginning to master human language with techniques that are similar to the neocortex. I actually described the algorithm, which is similar to something called a hierarchical hidden Markov model, something I've worked on since the '90s. "Jeopardy" is a very broad natural language game, and Watson got a higher score than the best two players combined. It got this query correct: "A long, tiresome speech delivered by a frothy pie topping," and it quickly responded, "What is a meringue harangue?" And Jennings and the other guy didn't get that. It's a pretty sophisticated example of computers actually understanding human language, and it actually got its knowledge by reading Wikipedia and several other encyclopedias.
Pa kako nam ide danas? Zapravo, računala počinju savladavati ljudski jezik tehnikama koje su slične neokorteksu. Opisao sam algoritam koji je sličan nečemu što se zove hijerarhijski skriveni Markovljev model, nešto na čemu sam radio još od 90-ih. "Izazov" je vrlo široka igra prirodnog jezika, i Watson je osvojio više bodova nego najbolja dva igrača zajedno. Točno je odgovorio na ovaj upit: " Dugi, zamoran govor pjenušavog nadjeva za pitu", i on je brzo odgovorio, "Što je meringue harangue?" A Jennings i onaj drugi tip to nisu shvatili. To je vrlo sofisticirani primjer kako računala zapravo razumiju ljudski jezik, a on je zapravo stekao znanje čitajući Wikipediu i nekoliko drugih enciklopedija.
Five to 10 years from now, search engines will actually be based on not just looking for combinations of words and links but actually understanding, reading for understanding the billions of pages on the web and in books. So you'll be walking along, and Google will pop up and say, "You know, Mary, you expressed concern to me a month ago that your glutathione supplement wasn't getting past the blood-brain barrier. Well, new research just came out 13 seconds ago that shows a whole new approach to that and a new way to take glutathione. Let me summarize it for you."
Negdje za 5 do 10 godina internetski pretraživači će raditi na principu ne samo na traženju kombinacije riječi i linkova već razumijevajući, čitajući da bi razumijeli milijarde stranica na webu i u knjigama. Tako dok se šetate, iskočit će Google i reći: "Znaš, Mary, izrazila si zabrinutost negdje prije mjesec dana da tvoj glutationski dodatak prehrani ne može proći barijeru krv-mozak. Pa, novo istraživanje je upravo izašlo prije 13 sekundi koje pokazuje jedan skroz novi pristup i novi način uzimanja glutationa. Dopusti da ga sažmem."
Twenty years from now, we'll have nanobots, because another exponential trend is the shrinking of technology. They'll go into our brain through the capillaries and basically connect our neocortex to a synthetic neocortex in the cloud providing an extension of our neocortex. Now today, I mean, you have a computer in your phone, but if you need 10,000 computers for a few seconds to do a complex search, you can access that for a second or two in the cloud. In the 2030s, if you need some extra neocortex, you'll be able to connect to that in the cloud directly from your brain. So I'm walking along and I say, "Oh, there's Chris Anderson. He's coming my way. I'd better think of something clever to say. I've got three seconds. My 300 million modules in my neocortex isn't going to cut it. I need a billion more." I'll be able to access that in the cloud. And our thinking, then, will be a hybrid of biological and non-biological thinking, but the non-biological portion is subject to my law of accelerating returns. It will grow exponentially. And remember what happens the last time we expanded our neocortex? That was two million years ago when we became humanoids and developed these large foreheads. Other primates have a slanted brow. They don't have the frontal cortex. But the frontal cortex is not really qualitatively different. It's a quantitative expansion of neocortex, but that additional quantity of thinking was the enabling factor for us to take a qualitative leap and invent language and art and science and technology and TED conferences. No other species has done that.
Za 20 godina imat ćemo nanobote, još jedan rastući trend jest smanjivanje tehnologije. Oni će ući u naš mozak kroz kapilare i zapravo spojiti naš neokorteks sa sintetskim neokorteksom u oblaku koji će biti produžetak našeg neokorteksa. Danas, imate računalo u vašem telefonu ali ako vam zatreba 10,000 računala za samo nekoliko sekundi kako biste napravili složenu pretragu, možete pristupiti tome za 1-2 sekunde u oblaku. U 2030-im ako budete trebali još neokorteksa moći ćete se povezati s njim u oblaku izravno iz vašeg mozga. Naprimjer šetam se i kažem: "Oh, evo Chris Anderson. Dolazi prema meni. Bolje da smislim nešto pametno za reći. imam tri sekunde. 300 milijuna modula u mojem neokorteksu neće to uspjeti. Trabam ih još milijardu." Moći ću im pristupiti preko oblaka. I tada će naše razmišljanje biti hibrid biološkog i ne-biološkog razmišljanja, ali nebiološki dio je podložan mom zakonu ubrzavajućih povrata. On će rasti eksponencijalno. Sjećate li se što se dogodilo zadnji put kad nam se povećao neokorteks? To je bilo prije 2 milijuna godina kada smo postali humanoidi i razvili ova visoka čela. Drugi primati imaju koso čelo. Oni nemaju frontalni korteks. Ali frontalni korteks nije kvalitativno drugačiji. On je kvantitativno proširenje neokorteksa, ali ta dodatna količina razmišljanja nam je omogućila da napravimo kvalitativan skok i izmislimo jezik i umjetnost i znanost i tehnologiju i TED konferencije. Nijednoj drugoj vrsti to nije uspjelo.
And so, over the next few decades, we're going to do it again. We're going to again expand our neocortex, only this time we won't be limited by a fixed architecture of enclosure. It'll be expanded without limit. That additional quantity will again be the enabling factor for another qualitative leap in culture and technology.
Tijekom sljedećih nekoliko desetljeća učinit ćemo to ponovno. Opet ćemo proširiti svoj neokorteks samo ovaj put nećemo biti ograničeni fiksnom arhitekturom zatvorenog prostora. Širit će se bez ograničenja. Ta dodatna količina će opet omogućiti kvalitativan skok u kulturi i tehnologiji.
Thank you very much.
Mnogo vam hvala.
(Applause)
(Pljesak)