In 2017, I confided in a dear friend of mine that my lifelong wish was to see the blue whales. Before I knew it, I found myself with a bunch of researchers in the Sea of Cortez studying the blue whales. We used to be in a boat 25 foot long. And next to us ... is this majestic creature feeding gracefully next to us.
2017 年,我向一位朋友傾訴 見到藍鯨是我畢生的願望 不久後我就跟著一群研究員 到了科爾蒂斯海研究藍鯨 我們坐著一艘 25 英尺長的船 在身旁的 是這嵬峨的生物 在一邊優雅地用餐
Now you have to understand, at that point in time, I knew nothing about blue whales, or whales in general. I'm just a financial economist. But I learned something from them, which was really incredible. It was already known in the science that whales capture so much carbon on their body and indirectly. And that's, of course, very important for us because we are all facing the climate calamity and we are all talking about how to grab carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Well, it turns out that the whales grab so much carbon dioxide from the atmosphere -- by the way, they eat and they poop. Yeah. It's all about food.
你們要知道,其實在當時 我對於藍鯨或是所有的鯨魚 一無所知 我只是一位金融經濟學者 但鯨魚為我上了不可思議的一課 科學上已知鯨魚會直接或間接地 吸收二氧化碳 這對我們非常重要 因為我們正面對著氣候災變 不停吵著該如何減少大氣層的二氧化碳 而鯨魚-- 從大氣層中吸收了這麼多的二氧化碳 只透過吃飯和便便 沒錯就是靠吃
So how does the whale system work? Well, it starts in the oceans. There's these microscopic organisms called phytoplankton. Those phytoplankton do something really incredible. They grab so much carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, and they return oxygen to all of us. Now how much carbon dioxide do they grab from the atmosphere? About 37 gigatons of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Truly the lungs of the planet are in the ocean. Now, if you want to visualize what 37 gigatons mean, that's the equivalent of the carbon that is grabbed by four Amazon forests per year. That's how much is being sucked in by these photosynthetic organisms.
鯨魚的系統如何運作? 從海洋開始 一種叫作浮游植物的微生物 浮游植物是大自然的奇蹟 它們從大氣中吸收大量的二氧化碳 用氧氣還給大家 它們吸收了多少二氧化碳呢? 大約 370 億噸大氣中的二氧化碳 儼然是海洋中的地球之肺 想要知道 370 億噸具體有多少 這相當於 四座亞馬遜森林一年吸收的二氧化碳 全被這些光合生物吸收了
Now larger creatures called krill love to eat phytoplankton directly or indirectly. And the whales love to feed on the krill. They feed so much on the krill that they grow bigger and bigger, and they store carbon in their body. How much carbon do they store in their body? Roughly about seven to nine tons of carbon on their body. If you want to convert that to carbon dioxide, that's about 33 tons of carbon dioxide being kept out of the atmosphere on the body of a single whale. If you want to visualize that, that’s the work of 1,500 trees on the body of a single whale. OK?
另一種大一點的生物叫磷蝦 喜歡吃浮游植物 而鯨魚喜歡吃磷蝦 鯨魚吃的超多,越長越大 並把碳儲存在身體裡 鯨魚究竟儲存了多少碳呢? 大概七到九噸的碳 換算成二氧化碳 就是 33 噸的二氧化碳離開了大氣 存在一隻鯨魚身上 具體來說 這是 1500 棵樹的工作量 由一隻鯨魚完成 明白嗎?
But those guys, because they eat a lot, what do you do next? You poop a lot. And their poop turns out to be incredibly important because it fertilizes the phyto. So you have this wonderful cycle. OK? The whale feeds on the krill, the krill feeds on the phyto, and the phyto eats the poop of the whales to get more active. And when the phyto gets more active, it grabs more carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. So just imagine: the whales, they capture carbon on their body. Unfortunately, at some point they die, and they're so heavy they sink to the bottom of the ocean. And anything below a thousand meters is sequestered almost forever. And through their poop they also fertilize phyto, making phyto even more active, grabbing more carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.
這些鯨魚吃得多 然後呢? 也排泄得多 牠們的便便其實超級重要 是浮游植物的肥料 這就是個完美循環 鯨魚吃磷蝦,磷蝦吃浮游植物 浮游植物吸收鯨魚便便的養分 浮游植物蓬勃生長 就從大氣吸收更多二氧化碳 想想看,鯨魚能在身體中儲存碳 而牠們總會死亡 因為重量,牠們的身體沉入海底 到了海底超過一千公尺深處 就等於永遠封存了 鯨魚的便便給浮游植物施肥 幫助浮游植物生長 又從大氣吸收更多二氧化碳
So in a sense, the whales are incredible allies in the fight against climate change. Now that's good news, right? Yeah. Except that whales are dying. They're dying from ship strikes. They're dying from pollution, they're dying from entanglements. In fact, they're dying because our current economic system puts a zero value on a living whale. But chop a whale, sell it for its meat, it acquires a value. The value of a living whale is zero, zero dollars, zero in any currency.
換句話說,鯨魚是對抗氣候變遷 的最佳盟友 這是好消息吧? 可惜鯨魚族群正在凋零中 牠們死於船隻撞擊 死於海洋污染,死於漁網纏繞 牠們不斷死亡,因為我們的經濟系統 對活鯨魚的價值估量為零 殺死一隻鯨魚賣掉,反而有錢賺 活的鯨魚價格只有零 任何貨幣都是零
I'm a financial economist. And I'm listening to these scientists bemoaning what's happening to the whales. And I wanted to help. I didn't know how to help. And I thought, wait a minute. Maybe I can bring your message to the audiences around the world. Maybe I can translate all of that value, those services they do for us in a language that we can all understand. Unfortunately, it's a language of dollars and cents. So I set out with my team to value the services of a whale but one service -- because the whales do a whole host of things. But I just wanted to value one thing, which is what is the value of their carbon sequestration service to us? Now how would you do something like that? After all, the whale is a living system. The whale captures carbon on her body, and she gives birth to baby whales who also grow up to capture carbon on their body. And they give birth to whales and so forth, and indirectly through the fertilization of phyto. So how would you do something like this? Well, to do that, I had to resort to what I do best, which is valuation. I looked at it, I said, wait a minute. This looks like a share of stock that pays dividends. Except those dividends are live dividends. They give birth to more dividends. So if I were to track the whale over her lifetime and keep track of all these dividends into the future, and then multiply that by the price of carbon, and discount that all the way to the present, I can figure out what is the present value, discounted present value, of the lifetime earnings of a single whale. Would you like to know how much?
我是一位金融經濟學者 聽著科學家們哀嘆鯨魚的下場 我想幫忙,卻不知道怎麼幫 然後我突發奇想 或許我可以把消息傳給全世界 或許我能把鯨魚的價值和對人類的服務 轉換成大家都懂的敘述 金錢的敘述 我的團隊開始評估鯨魚的服務工價 牠們對人類的服務眾多 我只想評估其中一種 鯨魚的碳封存服務究竟價值幾何? 這要怎麼做呢?鯨魚畢竟是活的 鯨魚用身體吸收碳 之後生下鯨魚寶寶 鯨魚寶寶長大繼續用身體吸收碳 之後新的鯨魚寶寶出生...... 還有牠們間接替浮游植物施肥 這要怎麼計算呢? 為了計算 我得回到老本行,進行估價 我想著,等一下, 這情況就像支付股息的股票 鯨魚就像活的股息,股息再生股息 如果我追蹤鯨魚的一生 追蹤牠的每股股息 推算到未來 乘以碳價 再折算成現在的價值 就可以得出現值 一頭鯨魚ㄧ生的收入 折算的現值 想知道多少嗎?
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(掌聲)
Would you like to know how much?
想知道多少嗎?
Audience: Yes!
觀眾:想!
RC: At least three million dollars. At least. Because I'm leaving so much out of this. But I just wanted to tell the good news that I heard on that boat. I didn't know what to do. I was trying to help them out. But there's more good news. Would you like to hear it?
最少三百萬美金 最少 沒有算的地方太多了 我想要傳播在那艘船上聽到的好消息 我不知道能做什麼,我只是想幫忙 還有更多好消息,你們想聽嗎?
Audience: Yes!
觀眾:想!
RC: Their cousins on land, the elephants in the forests of Africa, in the Congo Basin, they do the same thing. Turns out the way they walk and they eat and they poop, they increase carbon sequestration in the trees, in the forests between seven and 14 percent. Just imagine, just by frolicking around, they're helping us to grab carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and fix it. So I thought, hey, maybe, maybe we can value their services to. Right? Same thing. But again, use the same model of valuation. You follow the same methodology, and you discount all of that to the present. And you ask yourself, what is the value of a single elephant's carbon sequestration service? Would you like to know how much?
鯨魚陸地上的親戚,非洲雨林的大象 住在剛果盆地 也提供一樣的服務 大象透過走路、吃飯、排泄 使樹木中的碳封存增加 百分之七~十四 想像一下,只靠四處亂晃 大象就幫我們從大氣固定了二氧化碳 我就想,或許大象的服務也能估價 是同一件事,對吧? 使用相同的估價模板 相同的方法 同樣折算成現值 然後問,一頭大象的碳封存服務 價值幾何? 想知道多少嗎?
Audience: Yes!
觀眾:想!
RC: Here we go. 2.6 million dollars. Would you like to hear some more good news?
聽好囉 兩百六十萬美金 想知道更多好消息嗎?
Audience: Yes!
觀眾:想!
RC: Aside from forests -- because we are land people, we just think of forests -- go a little bit into the water. Seagrass, saltmarsh mangroves, kelp forests, peatlands, wetlands -- these are living systems that suck in so much carbon dioxide beyond your imagination, and they keep it forever in their roots as long as you leave them alone and you look after them.
除了森林 住在陸地上的我們常常只想到森林 來説説水裡吧 海草、紅樹林,海帶林、泥炭地、濕地 這些生態系統吸收的二氧化碳 遠超我們想像 碳存在它們的根中 只要不去動它,好好照顧它 碳就不會釋放出來
So ... If you think these numbers are big, wait till you see what I'm about to tell you next. In seagrass alone, seagrass alone, carbon sequestration. How much do you think is the value of the global -- If you look at globally the seagrass and you value their carbon sequestration service, how much you think it's worth? You ready? 2.3 trillion dollars. That's the size of the German stock market. Now. What does this tell us? This tells us that a living and thriving nature is not only valuable intrinsically, it's also financially valuable to us.
再來 你以為夠多了嗎 接下來的才是重頭戲 僅僅是海草 海草的碳封存 你們覺得價值有多少 全球的海草 評估它們的碳封存服務 究竟值多少? 準備好了嗎 2.3 兆美元 相當于一整個德國股市 好 這告訴我們什麼? 生機勃勃的大自然 除了本身存在的價值 同樣具備經濟價值
Question is, what do you do with this? So the science tells us what a wondrous Earth we are on. We can value it in dollars and cents. Question is, what are you going to do with it? Well, guess what? We can build a whole economy around a living and thriving nature, not an extractive view of nature, but a regenerative view of nature. And that economy --
問題是,我們該如何做? 科學告訴我們地球有多棒 可以用貨幣來計算它的價值 問題是,我們該如何做? 想想看,我們可以建立一套經濟系統 以生機勃勃的大自然為基石 大自然不再是我們獲取資源的挖掘場 而是可以再生的寶藏 這樣的經濟系統
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(掌聲)
Thank you.
謝謝
That economy is going to deliver for us sustainable and shared prosperity for all, big and small, all creatures on this planet. It does not have to be I win, you lose. It is a win-win. I'm going to show you how.
這經濟系統將導向永續發展與共榮 所有生物皆能受惠 不再是損人利己 而是雙贏的局面 我來說明如何做
From there we can build -- In order to build that economy, we need three things. We need the science, the accounting, the scientific accounting. What is it that you have? How much of it do you have? Then people like me, financial economists, come around and they say, "What is the value of what you have?" The reason we value it is just to basically translate it into the language that policymakers can understand so they can make decisions. That's all. It's a translation. But then the third pillar is very important, which is the legal framing. The legal framing is very important because we need to protect the rights of nature, a living and thriving nature.
建造這個經濟系統 需要用到三樣東西 科學、會計學、科學的會計學 你擁有什麼?你擁有多少? 然後金融經濟學家,比如我, 接下去計算: 你擁有那部分的價值是多少? 估價是為了把這個概念翻譯成一種 立法者懂得的語言 他們以此下決定 這就是一種翻譯 重要的是第三根支柱 法律成型 法律成型非常重要 因為我們必須保護大自然的權益 生機蓬勃的大自然
Three things. Once you do these three things, you can create markets around nature. When I say markets around nature, not an extractive view of nature, but a regenerative view of nature. And I'm going to show you how. I'm going to show you how.
只要完成這三件事 就能建造以大自然為基石的經濟系統 以大自然為基石 指的並不是獲取資源的挖掘場 而是可以再生的寶藏 我來展示如何做 我來展示如何做
Gabon has 57,000 elephants. If you leave them alone, they can grow to 195,000 elephants. Gabon can sell the carbon offsets of its elephants. Imagine -- because those elephants are grabbing carbon in the trees -- they can sell the carbon offsets of their elephants. To whom? To us because we're all enamored with going carbon zero, carbon negative, carbon neutral. And our money will come in to look after these elephants in perpetuity. OK? So how much revenue can Gabon get out of it? One billion dollars a year from allowing these elephants to frolic freely, not be tied to anything, just by leaving them alone. Those elephants, by the way, they walk, they poop, just being, having babies, doing whatever they do, they help carbon sequestration in the forests. A forest without animals is dead. It's not about flora. It's about flora and fauna. It's about nature itself. That's what the message is.
加彭一共有 57,000 頭大象 不要人為干預,象群能增加到 195,000 頭 加彭可以出售大象們的碳補償 想像一下,這些大象吸收樹木中的碳 加彭可以出售大象們的碳補償 出售給誰? 給我們這些夙夜匪懈 想要達成零碳、負碳、碳中和的人 這些錢可以用來保障大象們的永續生活 那麼加彭可以獲得多少收入呢? 每年十億美元,讓大象們盡情玩耍 而不是拘於一處 不要人為干預就行 這些大象呢,牠們走路、排泄、 生寶寶、隨心所欲,只要牠們存在 就能幫助森林中的碳封存 沒有動物的森林是死的 不能只有植物,植物與動物相輔相成 代表著大自然 這才是重點
Who would buy these carbon offsets? All these companies and countries that made commitments to carbon zero, carbon negative, carbon neutral. They would buy the carbon offsets, or carbon credits if you like. The money would flow in from these ecosystem services -- be it the whales, be it the elephants, be it mangrove, seagrass, saltmarsh -- and the money goes in by contract, using blockchain technology to look after nature in perpetuity -- very important -- and to look after the stewards of nature in perpetuity. And the stewards of nature are the local and the indigenous population. They're the ones who are doing the conservation, not you and me.
誰會買這些碳補償? 許下諾言要達成零碳、負碳、碳中和的 公司與國家 他們會購買碳補償,或碳權 資金會流入生態服務 不管是鯨魚、大象、紅樹林、海草、鹽沼 資金依合約流入 利用區塊鏈技術照顧生態永續經營 劃重點 -- 照顧這些生態永續經營的管家們 生態的管家是當地人以及原住民 一直在保護生態的是他們,不是我們
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(掌聲)
Once we do that -- Notice what it is. It's a win for nature. It's a win for the economy. The government will make money because the government is going to get all that revenue. It will change its fiscal stance. It will diversify its economy. It will grow in a sustainable way. It's a win for the environment. It's a win for all of these creatures that have suffered so much at our hands. It’s a win for this beautiful Earth of ours. As Carl Sagan once said, “The only Earth we’ll ever know. The only home we'll ever know." It's a win for us.
只要我們能做到 留意到它 大自然得到保護 經濟得到成長 政府賺到錢 因為這些將為政府帶來稅收 財政規劃因此改變 使經濟系統多樣化、永續成長 環境得到保護 在人類手中受苦受難的動物得到保護 我們的美麗地球得到保護 如卡爾·薩根(Carl Sagan)所說: 「我們所知的唯一地球, 我們所知的唯一家園。」 人類得以延續
We are taking this work in Africa to Liberia, Cameroon, Kenya, South Africa. We're taking this work to the Americas, Chile, Argentina. We're doing it in the US and in the UK. Imagine, it just started with just a wish of mine to see a blue whale. Little did I know it's going to end up with a vision of how we ought to live for tomorrow.
我們的工作 從非洲的賴比利亞、卡麥隆、肯亞、南非 到美洲的智利、阿根廷 到美國和英國 這一切的起點,我不過是想見見藍鯨 我也沒有料到,這趟旅程的成果 是人類未來生活的願景
Thank you.
謝謝
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