Let's talk about trust. We all know trust is fundamental, but when it comes to trusting people, something profound is happening.
我们来一起讨论讨论 信任这个问题。 我们都知道信任 是人与人交往的基础, 当我们开始信任 一个人的时候 一些巨大的改变随之发生
Please raise your hand if you have ever been a host or a guest on Airbnb. Wow. That's a lot of you.
在“空中食宿网“ (旅行短租网站)中 当过房东或者 住客的请举手。 哇!人数真不少。
Who owns Bitcoin? Still a lot of you. OK.
那么谁有”比特币“ (一种电子货币)呢? 仍有很多人啊。
And please raise your hand if you've ever used Tinder to help you find a mate.
那么在“火线”(交友网站) 上找过男女朋友的, 请举手。
(Laughter)
(笑声)
This one's really hard to count because you're kind of going like this.
这次真的很难计算, 因为很多人都不好意思举手。
(Laughter)
(笑声)
These are all examples of how technology is creating new mechanisms that are enabling us to trust unknown people, companies and ideas. And yet at the same time, trust in institutions -- banks, governments and even churches -- is collapsing. So what's happening here, and who do you trust?
以上的这些都可以很好的证明, 科技是如何创造一种新机制的 使我们相信陌生人、 陌生的公司以及陌生的点子, 但与此同时, 对于一些组织机构, 比如说,银行,甚至教堂, 我们的信任正在崩塌。 这究竟是怎么回事呢? 你究竟信任谁呢?
Let's start in France with a platform -- with a company, I should say -- with a rather funny-sounding name, BlaBlaCar. It's a platform that matches drivers and passengers who want to share long-distance journeys together. The average ride taken is 320 kilometers. So it's a good idea to choose your fellow travelers wisely. Social profiles and reviews help people make a choice. You can see if someone's a smoker, you can see what kind of music they like, you can see if they're going to bring their dog along for the ride. But it turns out that the key social identifier is how much you're going to talk in the car.
我们先来看看 法国的一个网络平台, 确切的说是一家法国公司。 它有着一个听起来 很有意思的名字: “巴拉巴拉拼车” 这个平台可以将 想要进行长途拼车的 司机和旅客进行配对。 每次拼车的平均旅程 距离为320千米。 所以说通过这个平台 选择你的驴友是非常明智的。 人们可以通过社交 网络资料和评论进行选择, 通过这些,你可以 知道他是否吸烟, 他喜欢什么样的音乐, 你也可以知道他们是否 会带着宠物狗一起旅行。 但研究结果表示, 人们最关心的问题是: 你能在车里说多少话。
(Laughter)
(笑声)
Bla, not a lot, bla bla, you want a nice bit of chitchat, and bla bla bla, you're not going to stop talking the entire way from London to Paris.
“巴拉”的意思是没说几句话 “巴拉巴拉”的意思是你们 可能会有一个很好的交谈。 而“巴拉巴拉巴拉”就代表 从伦敦直到巴黎的一路上, 你都在说个不停。
(Laughter)
(笑声)
It's remarkable, right, that this idea works at all, because it's counter to the lesson most of us were taught as a child: never get in a car with a stranger. And yet, BlaBlaCar transports more than four million people every single month. To put that in context, that's more passengers than the Eurostar or JetBlue airlines carry. BlaBlaCar is a beautiful illustration of how technology is enabling millions of people across the world to take a trust leap.
这个点子真的很不错, 因而它大获成功。 而且它与我们小时候父母 警告我们的事情正好相反: 永远不要和陌生人 搭同一辆车。 然而,“巴拉巴拉拼车” 在每个月里 会承载超过400万的乘客 如果进行比较的话, 这些乘客数 要超过“欧洲之星”或者 “捷蓝航空”的客流量。 “巴拉巴拉拼车”很好的 证明了科技如何使得 上百万来自世界各地的人 实现一种信任上的跨越。
A trust leap happens when we take the risk to do something new or different to the way that we've always done it. Let's try to visualize this together. OK. I want you to close your eyes. There is a man staring at me with his eyes wide open. I'm on this big red circle. I can see. So close your eyes.
当我们冒险去尝试一些 新的或与众不同的事物时, 我们说这是一种信任上的跨越。 让我们一起来设想下: 现在,我希望大家 都把眼睛闭上, 那有一位先生 瞪大了眼睛看着我。 我站在这个巨大的红色圆圈中, 我能清楚的看见你, 所以,请闭上眼睛。
(Laughter) (Applause)
(笑声)(掌声)
I'll do it with you. And I want you to imagine there exists a gap between you and something unknown. That unknown can be someone you've just met. It can be a place you've never been to. It can be something you've never tried before. You got it? OK. You can open your eyes now. For you to leap from a place of certainty, to take a chance on that someone or something unknown, you need a force to pull you over the gap, and that remarkable force is trust.
我来教大家接下来怎么做。 我希望大家想象下, 你与一个陌生事物之间, 存在着一个空间上的间隔。 这个陌生的事物可能 是你刚刚认识的某个人, 也可能是你一个 你从来没去过的地方, 也可能是你从来 没尝试过的事情。 大家想好了吗? 现在,大家可以睁开眼睛了。 对于你来说,如果 你想跨越这个间隙, 想要尝试到那个地方, 或者了解那个人, 你需要一个动力去推你, 而这个了不起 的动力就是信任。
Trust is an elusive concept, and yet we depend on it for our lives to function. I trust my children when they say they're going to turn the lights out at night. I trusted the pilot who flew me here to keep me safe. It's a word we use a lot, without always thinking about what it really means and how it works in different contexts of our lives.
信任是一个捉摸不透的概念, 但是我们却需要它 成为我们生存的基石。 我相信我的孩子, 相信他们会按照他们自己 说的那样,在晚上准时关灯。 我相信飞行员,相信他们 会在飞行中保障我的安全。 信任是我们频繁使用的一个词, 但我们却不会考虑 在不同的生活环境中, 它究竟是什么意思, 起着怎样的作用。
There are, in fact, hundreds of definitions of trust, and most can be reduced to some kind of risk assessment of how likely it is that things will go right. But I don't like this definition of trust, because it makes trust sound rational and predictable, and it doesn't really get to the human essence of what it enables us to do and how it empowers us to connect with other people.
实际上,对于信任的 定义有成百上千种, 这些定义大多数可以 被简化成一种风险评估, 主要的评估内容是这件事 有多大的可能性是正确的。 但我并不喜欢这种 对信任的定义。 因为它们使得信任看起来 是理性的且可预测的。 而且这些定义并没有真正 抓住究竟是人的哪些本性 促使我们去前进, 是怎么促使我们 与他人建立联系?
So I define trust a little differently. I define trust as a confident relationship to the unknown. Now, when you view trust through this lens, it starts to explain why it has the unique capacity to enable us to cope with uncertainty, to place our faith in strangers, to keep moving forward.
所以,我对信任的 定义与它们有些不同, 我认为信任是对 未知关系的一种自信。 现在,如果大家以 这种角度来审视信任, 你就会发现为什么 信任会有一种独特的力量, 帮助我们克服 那种不确定的不安 帮助我们将信任 交付到陌生人手中, 最终帮助我们不断前进。
Human beings are remarkable at taking trust leaps. Do you remember the first time you put your credit card details into a website? That's a trust leap. I distinctly remember telling my dad that I wanted to buy a navy blue secondhand Peugeot on eBay, and he rightfully pointed out that the seller's name was "Invisible Wizard" and that this probably was not such a good idea.
人类是非常了不起的, 我们可以因信任跨越鸿沟。 你还记得你第一次上网填写 信用卡信息的时候吗? 这就是信任的飞跃。 我始终记得 当我告诉我的父亲 我想在易趣(购物网站)上 买一辆二手的深蓝色 的标致汽车时, 他理直气壮的指出 卖家的名字叫“隐形的巫师”, 这个名字不好, 不能在他这里买。
(Laughter)
(笑声)
So my work, my research focuses on how technology is transforming the social glue of society, trust between people, and it's a fascinating area to study, because there's still so much we do not know. For instance, do men and women trust differently in digital environments? Does the way we build trust face-to-face translate online? Does trust transfer? So if you trust finding a mate on Tinder, are you more likely to trust finding a ride on BlaBlaCar?
我的工作主要是研究科技 是如何改变社会凝聚力的, 是如何在人们之间建立信任的。 这个领域真的特别吸引人, 因为有太多的东西 是我们不知道的。 例如,男人和女人在网络中 的信任度是一样的吗? 我们在现实社会与在网络中 建立信任的方式是相同的吗? 信任会传递吗? 如果你相信在“火线”上 能找到你的另一半, 那么你会不会更愿意相信
But from studying hundreds of networks and marketplaces,
在“巴拉巴拉拼车”上 能找到合适的驴友呢?
there is a common pattern that people follow, and I call it "climbing the trust stack." Let me use BlaBlaCar as an example to bring it to life. On the first level, you have to trust the idea. So you have to trust the idea of ride-sharing is safe and worth trying. The second level is about having confidence in the platform, that BlaBlaCar will help you if something goes wrong. And the third level is about using little bits of information to decide whether the other person is trustworthy.
在研究过成百上千的 网络软件和商场模式之后, 我发现人们的行为 遵循一个共同的规律, 我叫它“爬上信任的阶梯”。 让我用“巴拉巴拉拼车” 为大家更直观的解释下。 在这个阶梯的第一层, 你需要首先相信 这个想法的可行性, 也就是说你要相信, 这个共同搭车的想法 是安全且值得一试的。 阶梯的第二层是 你要对这个平台有信心, 也就是说你要 相信当问题出现时, “巴拉巴拉拼车”会帮你解决。 第三层就是运用一些信息 来决定究竟谁是 值得信任的驴友。
Now, the first time we climb the trust stack, it feels weird, even risky, but we get to a point where these ideas seem totally normal. Our behaviors transform, often relatively quickly. In other words, trust enables change and innovation.
经历了这三层之后, 我们第一次爬上了 “信任阶梯”的顶峰。 我们会感觉有些不可思议, 甚至还有些冒险, 但是我们却发现了其实 这些想法是再正常不过的。 我们的行为在改变着, 而且速度相对较快。 换句话说,信任使 我们改变且不断创新。
So an idea that intrigued me, and I'd like you to consider, is whether we can better understand major waves of disruption and change in individuals in society through the lens of trust. Well, it turns out that trust has only evolved in three significant chapters throughout the course of human history: local, institutional and what we're now entering, distributed.
因而,我有了一个想法, 我希望我们可以一起考虑, 我们是否可以 在信任的角度上, 更好的理解社会中 人们的分裂及改变? 研究结果表明, 信任只参与了 人类历史进程中 的三个重要环节: 本土化,制度化 以及现在的分散化。
So for a long time, until the mid-1800s, trust was built around tight-knit relationships. So say I lived in a village with the first five rows of this audience, and we all knew one another, and say I wanted to borrow money. The man who had his eyes wide open, he might lend it to me, and if I didn't pay him back, you'd all know I was dodgy. I would get a bad reputation, and you would refuse to do business with me in the future. Trust was mostly local and accountability-based.
所以,很长一段时间内, 也就是直到19世纪中期 信任只是建立在 亲密的关系之间的。 举个例子, 我和前五排的观众, 一起生活在一个村子里 我们都互相熟悉。 如果我想借钱, 前排这个睁大眼睛看着我 的先生可能会借给我。 但是如果我没有还钱给他, 村子了的所有人就 都会知道我是个骗子, 我的名声会变臭, 以后没有人会再和我做生意。 那时的信任完全是 建立在地区范围之内,
In the mid-19th century,
且带有问责性的。
society went through a tremendous amount of change. People moved to fast-growing cities such as London and San Francisco, and a local banker here was replaced by large corporations that didn't know us as individuals. We started to place our trust into black box systems of authority, things like legal contracts and regulation and insurance, and less trust directly in other people. Trust became institutional and commission-based.
而到了19世纪中期, 我们的社会 经历了巨大的变革, 很多人搬到了 发展迅速的城市地区, 比如伦敦或者旧金山。 与此同时,当地的银行家 也被一些大企业而取代, 这些大企业并不 了解我们每一个人。 因此,我们开始将我们的信任 放入权威机构的“黑箱系统”中 它就像法律合同, 法律规范或者保险一样, 因而人与人之间的 直接信任就减少了很多, 信任开始基于各种机构组织。
It's widely talked about how trust in institutions and many corporate brands has been steadily declining and continues to do so. I am constantly stunned by major breaches of trust: the News Corp phone hacking, the Volkswagen emissions scandal, the widespread abuse in the Catholic Church, the fact that only one measly banker went to jail after the great financial crisis, or more recently the Panama Papers that revealed how the rich can exploit offshore tax regimes. And the thing that really surprises me is why do leaders find it so hard to apologize, I mean sincerely apologize, when our trust is broken?
人们现在讨论最多的就是 对于各种机构组织的信任, 是如何持续下滑的。 我一直被那些失信 的丑闻所震惊着。 比如说,新闻集团 的电话入侵事件, 大众的尾气排放丑闻, 天主教会中大量的虐童事件。 实际上,在金融危机爆发以后 只有一个低等的银行家 到监狱里做了替死鬼。 还有最近爆出的“巴拿马文件”, 这些文件向我们暴露了, 有钱人是如何通过 离岸税收制度逃税漏税的。 真正令我吃惊的是, 当人们间的信任崩盘时, 让这些人领导人 道个歉为什么这么难? 当然,我说的是真正的道歉
It would be easy to conclude that institutional trust isn't working because we are fed up with the sheer audacity of dishonest elites, but what's happening now runs deeper than the rampant questioning of the size and structure of institutions. We're starting to realize that institutional trust wasn't designed for the digital age. Conventions of how trust is built, managed, lost and repaired -- in brands, leaders and entire systems -- is being turned upside down.
我们对各种机构、组织 失去信任的原因很简单, 因为我们受够了那些 厚颜无耻、谎话连篇 的所谓的精英们。 但现在所发生的 这些事,远不止 对那些组织机构的规模、 结构的质疑那么简单。 因为我们开始意识到, 建立在组织机构上的信任, 不再适用于数字时代。 一些常规的思维, 比如说信任在 一些集团公司中、领导中, 以及整个系统之中, 是如何建立的、管理的、 失去的,最后又重建的, 已经被完全颠覆。
Now, this is exciting, but it's frightening, because it forces many of us to have to rethink how trust is built and destroyed with our customers, with our employees, even our loved ones.
就现在来说,是件 另人兴奋的事, 但这也是非常恐怖的事情。 因为这就要求我们重新思考, 信任是如何在我们 与客户之间,与雇员之间, 甚至与我们爱的人之间, 建立、摧毁的。
The other day, I was talking to the CEO of a leading international hotel brand, and as is often the case, we got onto the topic of Airbnb. And he admitted to me that he was perplexed by their success. He was perplexed at how a company that depends on the willingness of strangers to trust one another could work so well across 191 countries. So I said to him that I had a confession to make, and he looked at me a bit strangely, and I said -- and I'm sure many of you do this as well -- I don't always bother to hang my towels up when I'm finished in the hotel, but I would never do this as a guest on Airbnb. And the reason why I would never do this as a guest on Airbnb is because guests know that they'll be rated by hosts, and that those ratings are likely to impact their ability to transact in the future. It's a simple illustration of how online trust will change our behaviors in the real world, make us more accountable in ways we cannot yet even imagine.
有一天,我与一个来自 国际顶级酒店集团的 首席执行官聊天时, 我们又不自觉的 聊到了“空中食宿网”。 他说他真的不明白 这个公司是怎么成功的, 他不明白一个公司怎么可以 依靠陌生人间的信任, 将生意做得如此成功, 甚至遍布191个国家。 然后我跟他说, 我要向他承认一个错误, 他有些莫名其妙的看着我, 我说: 我相信很多在座 的各位也这样做过。 当我在离开酒店之前, 我经常不把用过的毛巾挂起来, 但我不会这样对待在 “空中食宿网”订购的民宿。 我之所在“空中食宿网”中 不会这么做, 是因为住客知道房主 会对他们进行评估打分, 这些评估打分很有可能会 影响他们将来的交易, 这就是一个非常好的例子。 它证明了网络上的信任是 如何在现实生活中 改变我们的行为的。 而且这些信任以一种 我们以前从未设想过的方式, 使得我们变得更有责任感。
I am not saying we do not need hotels or traditional forms of authority. But what we cannot deny is that the way trust flows through society is changing, and it's creating this big shift away from the 20th century that was defined by institutional trust towards the 21st century that will be fueled by distributed trust. Trust is no longer top-down. It's being unbundled and inverted. It's no longer opaque and linear. A new recipe for trust is emerging that once again is distributed amongst people and is accountability-based.
当然,我也不是说 我们不再需要酒店了, 或者说不再需要传统 的那些组织机构了。 但是我们也不能否认, 当今社会的信任 流向已经改变了。 这种巨大的改变, 是从20世纪 由组织机构定义的信任, 转向了21世纪 更加分散的信任。 信任不再仅仅 是由上到下流动了, 而是分散式的 甚至是反向的。 信任也不再是 看不见摸不着的了, 也不再是直线型的了, 一种新型的信任 正在不断兴起, 这种信任再一次 的在人群中兴起 它以问责制为基础。
And this shift is only going to accelerate with the emergence of the blockchain, the innovative ledger technology underpinning Bitcoin. Now let's be honest, getting our heads around the way blockchain works is mind-blowing. And one of the reasons why is it involves processing some pretty complicated concepts with terrible names. I mean, cryptographic algorithms and hash functions, and people called miners, who verify transactions -- all that was created by this mysterious person or persons called Satoshi Nakamoto. Now, that is a massive trust leap that hasn't happened yet.
这种改变加速了 区块链的出现, 区块链就是支持比特币 产生的分布式账本创新技术。 但是诚实的讲, 我们是很难 真正的理解究竟 区块链是怎样工作的。 其中的一个原因 就是人们总是, 给一些及其复杂的概念, 起一些特别难懂的名字, 比如说所谓的“密码规则系统” 以及“散列函数”, 还有那些核查交易的“矿工”们。 这些都是由一个神秘人创造的, 他的名字叫做中本聪 现在对我们来说,这些 概念都是还没有发生的,
(Applause)
巨大的“信任跨越”, 因为我们根本不明白。
(掌声)
But let's try to imagine this. So "The Economist" eloquently described the blockchain as the great chain of being sure about things. The easiest way I can describe it is imagine the blocks as spreadsheets, and they are filled with assets. So that could be a property title. It could be a stock trade. It could be a creative asset, such as the rights to a song. Every time something moves from one place on the register to somewhere else, that asset transfer is time-stamped and publicly recorded on the blockchain. It's that simple. Right.
但还是让我们 试着体会一下, 经济学家们将区块链 生动的比作为: 事物间最伟大的链接。 而我能想到的最好方法 就是将区块链比作表格, 这个表格里面 有着丰富的数据。 所以,我们可以将它 看做一个不动产契约, 也可以看成一次股票交易, 也可以是一种 具有创造性的资产, 比如说一首歌的版权。 一旦人们登录的地点 有所改变, 那么这些资产也是 随之实时转移的。 同时在区块链上 也有所有记录, 这样是不是就好理解些了。
So the real implication of the blockchain is that it removes the need for any kind of third party, such as a lawyer, or a trusted intermediary, or maybe not a government intermediary to facilitate the exchange. So if we go back to the trust stack, you still have to trust the idea, you have to trust the platform, but you don't have to trust the other person in the traditional sense.
所以说区块链的真正含义就是: 它为任何形式的 第三方转移他们的需求, 比如说像一名律师一样, 或者是一个可信的中介, 或者可能就是为了 不让政府做中介, 来实现交易。 那么,现在我们回到 信任层级这个问题上来。 现在的情况是, 你仍需要相信这个点子, 你仍需要相信这个平台, 但是你不需要像以前一样, 相信某个特定的人了。
The implications are huge. In the same way the internet blew open the doors to an age of information available to everyone, the blockchain will revolutionize trust on a global scale.
这对我们的启示 是非常巨大的, 同样的,互联网开启了 一个新的信息时代的大门。 这个大门允许任何人的进入, 而区块链也会在全球范围内 掀起一场信任革命。
Now, I've waited to the end intentionally to mention Uber, because I recognize that it is a contentious and widely overused example, but in the context of a new era of trust, it's a great case study. Now, we will see cases of abuse of distributed trust. We've already seen this, and it can go horribly wrong. I am not surprised that we are seeing protests from taxi associations all around the world trying to get governments to ban Uber based on claims that it is unsafe. I happened to be in London the day that these protests took place, and I happened to notice a tweet from Matt Hancock, who is a British minister for business.
我一直在等着人们 不再提起“优步”(打车应用), 因为我认为 这是一个有异议, 且被过度使用了的例子。 但在我们所说的 新的信任的领域下, “优步”确实是一个 很好的例子。 现在,我们看几个 滥用分散性信任的例子。 我们早已看过这些例子了, 而且它们都糟糕到离谱, 对于出租车协会 在全球范围内的抗议, 我一点也不觉得奇怪。 他们试图说服政府 相信“优步”并不安全, 因而请求取缔它。 有一次我在伦敦刚好 遇到了抗议的队伍, 也正巧我看到了 一个很巧妙的“推文”。 这段话那来自英国 商务大臣马特·汉考克,
And he wrote, "Does anyone have details of this #Uber app everyone's talking about?
他写到, “谁能给我一些 关于‘优步’的信息?
(Laughter)
为什么大家都 在讨论这个应用?
(笑声)
I'd never heard of it until today."
直到今天之前 我都没有听说过!“
Now, the taxi associations, they legitimized the first layer of the trust stack. They legitimized the idea that they were trying to eliminate, and sign-ups increased by 850 percent in 24 hours. Now, this is a really strong illustration of how once a trust shift has happened around a behavior or an entire sector, you cannot reverse the story. Every day, five million people will take a trust leap and ride with Uber. In China, on Didi, the ride-sharing platform, 11 million rides taken every day. That's 127 rides per second, showing that this is a cross-cultural phenomenon.
而现在,出租车协会 合理化了信任层级中的第一层。 他们将他们想要避免 的事变得合理化了。 而且在24小时内”优步“ 的注册人数增加了850%。 这个例子很好的说明了, 信任是如何在行为之间 或者整个领域中转变的。 大家可以好好 想一下这个例子: 每天,全世界会有 500万人跨越信任鸿沟, 乘坐”优步“, 在中国的“滴滴”, 这个打车应用每天 载客数会达到1100万, 也就是每秒会有 127辆车载客。 所以说这是一个 跨越文化的现象。
And the fascinating thing is that both drivers and passengers report that seeing a name and seeing someone's photo and their rating makes them feel safer, and as you may have experienced, even behave a little more nicely in the taxi cab. Uber and Didi are early but powerful examples of how technology is creating trust between people in ways and on a scale never possible before.
而且更神奇的是 司机和乘客都说, 只看到一个人的名字, 照片以及他们的评论, 会使他们感到更安全。 也许在坐的各位都体会到, 我们在”优步“上会比在 出租车上表现的好一些, 虽然”优步“和”滴滴“ 都已经出现很久了, 但是它们都有力的证明了, 科技是如何以一种前所未有 的方式和范围内, 增加人与人之间的信任的。
Today, many of us are comfortable getting into cars driven by strangers. We meet up with someone we swiped right to be matched with. We share our homes with people we do not know.
现在,很多人对于进入到 一个陌生人开的车里, 应该是感觉很舒服的了。 我们会与陌生人见面, 会刷卡买东西, 我们会与陌生人 分享我们的房子,
This is just the beginning, because the real disruption happening isn't technological. It's the trust shift it creates, and for my part, I want to help people understand this new era of trust so that we can get it right and we can embrace the opportunities to redesign systems that are more transparent, inclusive and accountable.
但是,一切一切 才只是刚刚开始。 因为真正促使改变产生的, 并不是科技, 是信任的转变刺激了 科技的创造性。 站在我的角度来说, 我希望人们能够理解 信任的这个新领域, 所以我们才能正确的掌握它。 因而我们也可以抓住 这个机会重塑我们的系统, 使得这些系统更加透明, 更加兼容也更加值得信任。
Thank you very much.
谢谢大家!
(Applause)
(掌声)
Thank you.
谢谢!
(Applause)
(掌声)