Let's talk about trust. We all know trust is fundamental, but when it comes to trusting people, something profound is happening.
Razgovarajmo o povjerenju. Svi znamo da je povjerenje zaista važno, no kada se radi o povjerenju među ljudima, događa se nešto neobično.
Please raise your hand if you have ever been a host or a guest on Airbnb. Wow. That's a lot of you.
Molim vas, podignite ruku ako ste ikad bili domaćin ili gost u Airbnb sustavu. Opa! Zaista vas je mnogo.
Who owns Bitcoin? Still a lot of you. OK.
Tko posjeduje Bitcoin? Još uvijek velik broj. OK.
And please raise your hand if you've ever used Tinder to help you find a mate.
Molim vas dignite ruku ako ste ikad koristili Tinder da biste pronašli srodnu dušu.
(Laughter)
(Smijeh)
This one's really hard to count because you're kind of going like this.
Sad je zaista teško prebrojati jer to pokazujete ovako.
(Laughter)
(Smijeh)
These are all examples of how technology is creating new mechanisms that are enabling us to trust unknown people, companies and ideas. And yet at the same time, trust in institutions -- banks, governments and even churches -- is collapsing. So what's happening here, and who do you trust?
To su sve primjeri kako tehnologija kreira nove obrasce koji nam omogućavaju da vjerujemo nepoznatim ljudima, poduzećima i idejama. Ipak, istovremeno, povjerenje u institucije -- banke, vlade, pa čak i crkve -- opada. Što se zapravo događa, i kome vjerujemo?
Let's start in France with a platform -- with a company, I should say -- with a rather funny-sounding name, BlaBlaCar. It's a platform that matches drivers and passengers who want to share long-distance journeys together. The average ride taken is 320 kilometers. So it's a good idea to choose your fellow travelers wisely. Social profiles and reviews help people make a choice. You can see if someone's a smoker, you can see what kind of music they like, you can see if they're going to bring their dog along for the ride. But it turns out that the key social identifier is how much you're going to talk in the car.
Krenimo s francuskom platformom -- s poduzećem, rekla bih -- prilično smiješna imena - BlaBlaCar. Ta platvorma spaja vozače i putnike koji se na duža putovanja žele uputiti zajedno. Prosječna udaljenost iznosi 320 kilometara, pa bi bilo dobro mudro izabirati suputnike. Društveni profili i ocjene pomažu ljudima izabrati. Možete vidjeti je li netko pušač, možete vidjeti kakvu vrstu glazbe voli, možete vidjeti i hoće li sa sobom povesti i svog psa. No, izgleda da se ključna društvena oznaka odnosi na to koliko ćete pričati za vrijeme vožnje.
(Laughter)
(Smijeh)
Bla, not a lot, bla bla, you want a nice bit of chitchat, and bla bla bla, you're not going to stop talking the entire way from London to Paris.
Bla, ne puno, bla bla, želite neobavezni razgovor i bla bla bla, pričat ćete za cijelog puta od Londona do Pariza
(Laughter)
(Smijeh)
It's remarkable, right, that this idea works at all, because it's counter to the lesson most of us were taught as a child: never get in a car with a stranger. And yet, BlaBlaCar transports more than four million people every single month. To put that in context, that's more passengers than the Eurostar or JetBlue airlines carry. BlaBlaCar is a beautiful illustration of how technology is enabling millions of people across the world to take a trust leap.
Nevjerojatno je kako ta ideja uopće funkcionira jer se protivi svemu čemu su nas učili u djetinjstvu: nikad ne ulazi u auto sa strancem. Ipak, BlaBlaCar prevozi više od četiri milijuna ljudi svakog mjeseca. Stavimo to u kontekst - to je više putnika nego što prevoze Eurostar ili JetBlue. BlaBlaCar prekrasna ilustrira kako nova tehnologija omogućuje milijunima ljudi širom svijeta da naprave korak prema povjerenju.
A trust leap happens when we take the risk to do something new or different to the way that we've always done it. Let's try to visualize this together. OK. I want you to close your eyes. There is a man staring at me with his eyes wide open. I'm on this big red circle. I can see. So close your eyes.
Korak prema povjerenju događa se kad riskiramo i činimo nešto novo i drugačije od onoga što nam je uobičajeno. Pokušajmo sve to vizualizirati. Molim vas zatvorite oči. Muškarac bulji u mene širom otvorenih očiju. Ja sam u ovom velikom crvenom krugu. Vidim vas. Dakle, zatvorite oči.
(Laughter) (Applause)
(Smijeh) (Pljesak)
I'll do it with you. And I want you to imagine there exists a gap between you and something unknown. That unknown can be someone you've just met. It can be a place you've never been to. It can be something you've never tried before. You got it? OK. You can open your eyes now. For you to leap from a place of certainty, to take a chance on that someone or something unknown, you need a force to pull you over the gap, and that remarkable force is trust.
Ja ću vam se pridružiti. Želim da zamislite jaz koji postoji između vas i nečeg nepoznatog. To nepoznato može biti netko koga ste upravo sreli. Može biti i nepoznato mjesto. Može biti i nešto što do sada još niste isprobali. Shvaćate? Sada možete otvoriti oči. Kako biste mogli iskoračiti iz sigurne zone i iskušati sreću s nečim ili nekim novim trebate snagu koja će vas povući preko jaza, a ta posebna snaga je povjerenje.
Trust is an elusive concept, and yet we depend on it for our lives to function. I trust my children when they say they're going to turn the lights out at night. I trusted the pilot who flew me here to keep me safe. It's a word we use a lot, without always thinking about what it really means and how it works in different contexts of our lives.
Povjerenje je neuhvatljiv koncept, a ipak nam je potrebno da bismo živjeli. Ja vjerujem svojoj djeci, kad mi kažu da će ugasiti svjetlo. Vjerovala sam pilotu da će mi put avionom biti siguran. To je riječ koju puno koristimo iako rijetko razmišljamo o tome što zaista znači i kako funkcionira u različitim kontekstima našh života.
There are, in fact, hundreds of definitions of trust, and most can be reduced to some kind of risk assessment of how likely it is that things will go right. But I don't like this definition of trust, because it makes trust sound rational and predictable, and it doesn't really get to the human essence of what it enables us to do and how it empowers us to connect with other people.
Postoje stotine definicija povjerenja i većina se svodi na to da je povjerenje neka vrsta procjene rizika koliko je vjerojatno da će se nešto razviti kako treba. Ne sviđa mi se ta definicija jer se povjerenje prikazuje kao nešto racionalno i predvidljivo i ne bavi se time što je u ljudskoj srži i onoga što nam povjerenje omogućava, koliko nas osnažuje da se povezujemo s drugima.
So I define trust a little differently. I define trust as a confident relationship to the unknown. Now, when you view trust through this lens, it starts to explain why it has the unique capacity to enable us to cope with uncertainty, to place our faith in strangers, to keep moving forward.
Stoga definiram povjerenje malo drugačije. Definiram ga kao pouzdanu povezanost s nepoznatim. Kada povjerenje gledate kroz te naočale, postaje vam jasnije zašto ima tako jednistvenu sposobnost koja nam omogućava da izlazimo na kraj s neizvjesnosti, da svoje sudbine prepustimo u ruke stranaca kako bi smo nastavili napredovati.
Human beings are remarkable at taking trust leaps. Do you remember the first time you put your credit card details into a website? That's a trust leap. I distinctly remember telling my dad that I wanted to buy a navy blue secondhand Peugeot on eBay, and he rightfully pointed out that the seller's name was "Invisible Wizard" and that this probably was not such a good idea.
Ljudska bića izvanredno poduzimaju korake prema povjerenju. Sjećate li se prvog puta kad ste podatke svoje kreditne kartice stavili na internet? To je korak prema povjerenju. Kao kroz maglu sjećam se da sam rekla svom tati da želim kupiti mornarsko plavi polovni Peugeot preko eBaya, a on je s pravom naglasio da je prodavačevo ime "Nevidljvi čarobnjak" i da to vjerojatno nije baš dobra ideja.
(Laughter)
(Smijeh)
So my work, my research focuses on how technology is transforming the social glue of society, trust between people, and it's a fascinating area to study, because there's still so much we do not know. For instance, do men and women trust differently in digital environments? Does the way we build trust face-to-face translate online? Does trust transfer? So if you trust finding a mate on Tinder, are you more likely to trust finding a ride on BlaBlaCar?
Stoga se moj rad, moje istraživanje fokusira na to kako tehnologija transformira društvenu povezanost zajednice, povjerenje među ljudima i to je fascinantno područje za proučavanje jer postoji još puno toga što ne znamo. Npr., imaju li muškarci i žene drugačije povjerenje u digitalnom okruženju? Može li se način građenja povjerenja u osobnom kontaktu prenijeti na virtualu? Je li povjerenje moguće prenijeti? Ako vjerujete da ćete naći partnera preko Tindera, jeste li skloniji tražiti i suputnika preko BlaBlaCar-a?
But from studying hundreds of networks and marketplaces, there is a common pattern that people follow, and I call it "climbing the trust stack." Let me use BlaBlaCar as an example to bring it to life. On the first level, you have to trust the idea. So you have to trust the idea of ride-sharing is safe and worth trying. The second level is about having confidence in the platform, that BlaBlaCar will help you if something goes wrong. And the third level is about using little bits of information to decide whether the other person is trustworthy.
Proučavanjem stotine mreža i trgovina doznali smo da ljudi koriste zajedničke obrasce ponašanja koji nazivam "penjanje stogom povjerenja". Kao primjer iz života koristit ćemo BlaBlaCar. Na prvoj razini trebate vjerovati ideji. Trebate vjerovati da je zajednička vožnja sigurna ideja koju vrijedi isprobati. Druga razina odnosi se na imanje povjerenja u platformu, da će vam BlaBlaCar pomoći ako nešto pođe po zlu. Treća razina odnosi se na korištenje malih količina informacija pomoću kojih trebamo odlučiti možemo li vjerovati drugoj osobi.
Now, the first time we climb the trust stack, it feels weird, even risky, but we get to a point where these ideas seem totally normal. Our behaviors transform, often relatively quickly. In other words, trust enables change and innovation.
Kada se prvi put penjemo stogom povjerenja, čini nam se čudno, pa i riskantno, no dolazimo do točke u kojoj se ove ideje čine sasvim normalne. Naša se ponašanja mijenjaju, često vrlo brzo. Drugim riječima, povjerenje omogućava promjenu i inovativnost.
So an idea that intrigued me, and I'd like you to consider, is whether we can better understand major waves of disruption and change in individuals in society through the lens of trust. Well, it turns out that trust has only evolved in three significant chapters throughout the course of human history: local, institutional and what we're now entering, distributed.
Želim da razmislite o tome možemo li bolje razumjeti glavne valove remećenja i promjene kod pojedinaca u društvu kroz naočale povjerenja. Povjerenje se rezvilo u samo tri značajna oblika tijekom čitave ljudske povijesti: lokalni, institucionalni, a sada i raspršeni.
So for a long time, until the mid-1800s, trust was built around tight-knit relationships. So say I lived in a village with the first five rows of this audience, and we all knew one another, and say I wanted to borrow money. The man who had his eyes wide open, he might lend it to me, and if I didn't pay him back, you'd all know I was dodgy. I would get a bad reputation, and you would refuse to do business with me in the future. Trust was mostly local and accountability-based.
Dugo vremena, do sredine 19. stoljeća, povjerenje se gradilo oko čvrsto integriranih odnosa. Recimo da sam živjela u selu s prvih pet redova ove publike i svi smo se dobro poznavali i recimo da sam htjela posuditi novac. Čovjek širom otvorenih očiju mogao bi mi ih posuditi, a ako ih ne bih vratila, svi biste znali da sam nepouzdana. Imala bih lošu reputaciju, i vi biste odbijali poslovati sa mnom u budućnosti. Povjerenje je bilo lokalno i utemeljeno na odgovornosti.
In the mid-19th century, society went through a tremendous amount of change. People moved to fast-growing cities such as London and San Francisco, and a local banker here was replaced by large corporations that didn't know us as individuals. We started to place our trust into black box systems of authority, things like legal contracts and regulation and insurance, and less trust directly in other people. Trust became institutional and commission-based.
Sredinom 19. stoljeća društvo je prošlo silnu promjenu. Ljudi su se selili u brzorastuće gradove poput Londona i San Francisca, a tamošnje lokalne bankare zamijenila su velika poduzeća koja nas nisu poznavala kao pojedince. Počeli smo vjerovati u modele crne kutije nadležnih sustava poput zakonitih ugovora, pravila i osiguranja, stoga je nastalo manje direktnog povjerenja u druge ljude. Povjerenje je postalo institucionalno i temeljilo se na vjerovanju vladajućima.
It's widely talked about how trust in institutions and many corporate brands has been steadily declining and continues to do so. I am constantly stunned by major breaches of trust: the News Corp phone hacking, the Volkswagen emissions scandal, the widespread abuse in the Catholic Church, the fact that only one measly banker went to jail after the great financial crisis, or more recently the Panama Papers that revealed how the rich can exploit offshore tax regimes. And the thing that really surprises me is why do leaders find it so hard to apologize, I mean sincerely apologize, when our trust is broken?
Široke rasprave vode se o padu povjerenja u institucije i mnoge proizvodne marke, a taj se trend nastavlja i dalje. Neprestano sam osupnuta stalnim povredama povjerenja: provala u telefonske sustave News Corpa, skandal s VW-emisijama štetnih plinova, rasprostranjeno zlostavljanje u katoličkoj Crkvi, činjenica da je samo jedan jedini bankar otišao u zatvor nakon financijske krize ili u novije vrijeme Panama Papers koji otkrivaju kako bogati iskorištavaju porezne režime drugih zemalja. A ono što me najviše iznenađuje jest zašto je čelnicima tako teško ispričati se, iskreno se ispričati kad izigraju tuđe povjerenje?
It would be easy to conclude that institutional trust isn't working because we are fed up with the sheer audacity of dishonest elites, but what's happening now runs deeper than the rampant questioning of the size and structure of institutions. We're starting to realize that institutional trust wasn't designed for the digital age. Conventions of how trust is built, managed, lost and repaired -- in brands, leaders and entire systems -- is being turned upside down.
Bilo bi lako zaključiti da institucionalno povjerenje ne funkcionira jer nam je dosta drskosti nepoštenih elita, a ono što se sad događa puno je ozbiljnije od stalnog ispitivanja veličine i strukture institucija. Počinjemo shvaćati da institucionalno povjerenje nije stvoreno za digitalno doba. Poimanje o tome kako se gradi, upravlja, gube i popravlja povjerenje u brandove, čelnike i čitave sustave -- potpuno se promijenilo.
Now, this is exciting, but it's frightening, because it forces many of us to have to rethink how trust is built and destroyed with our customers, with our employees, even our loved ones.
To je istovremeno i uzbudljivo i zastrašujuće jer nas prisiljava da promislimo o tome kako se povjerenje stvara i gubi s našim klijentima ili našim radnicima, pa čak i našim voljenima.
The other day, I was talking to the CEO of a leading international hotel brand, and as is often the case, we got onto the topic of Airbnb. And he admitted to me that he was perplexed by their success. He was perplexed at how a company that depends on the willingness of strangers to trust one another could work so well across 191 countries. So I said to him that I had a confession to make, and he looked at me a bit strangely, and I said -- and I'm sure many of you do this as well -- I don't always bother to hang my towels up when I'm finished in the hotel, but I would never do this as a guest on Airbnb. And the reason why I would never do this as a guest on Airbnb is because guests know that they'll be rated by hosts, and that those ratings are likely to impact their ability to transact in the future. It's a simple illustration of how online trust will change our behaviors in the real world, make us more accountable in ways we cannot yet even imagine.
Neki dan razgovarala sam s direktorom vodećeg međunarodnog hotelskog lanca i, naravno, dotaknuli smo se teme Airbnb-a. Priznao mi je da ga čudi njihov uspjeh. Čudi se kako poduzeće koje ovisi o volji neznanaca da vjeruju jedni drugima tako dobro funkcionira u 191 državi. Rekla sam mu da mu moram nešto priznati, a on me čudno pogledao pa sam rekla -- i sigurna sam da nisam jedina -- često ne vratim ručnike na mjesto kad napuštam hotel, a to mi nikad ne bi palo na pamet da sam gost Airbnb-a. To nikad ne bih napravila na Arbnb-iju zato što gosti znaju da će domaćini ocijeniti njihov boravak i da će te ocjene vjerojatno utjecati na mogućnost njihovog budućeg korištenja usluge. To oslikava kako će internetsko povjerenje mijenjati naše ponašanje u stvarnom svijetu., činiti nas odgovornijima na načine koje ne možemo ni zamisliti.
I am not saying we do not need hotels or traditional forms of authority. But what we cannot deny is that the way trust flows through society is changing, and it's creating this big shift away from the 20th century that was defined by institutional trust towards the 21st century that will be fueled by distributed trust. Trust is no longer top-down. It's being unbundled and inverted. It's no longer opaque and linear. A new recipe for trust is emerging that once again is distributed amongst people and is accountability-based.
Ne kažem da ne trebamo hotele ili tradicionalne oblike autoriteta. No, ne možemo zanijekati da se način na koji povjerenje utječe na društvo mijenja i odmiče od 20. stoljeća koje je određeno povjerenjem u institucije prema 21. stoljeću koje će pokretati dijeljeno povjerenje. Povjerenje više ne ide odozgo prema dolje. Odvaja se i preokreće. Nije više nejasno i pravocrtno. Javlja se novi recept za povjerenje koji se ponovno dijeli među ljudima i temelji na povjerenju.
And this shift is only going to accelerate with the emergence of the blockchain, the innovative ledger technology underpinning Bitcoin. Now let's be honest, getting our heads around the way blockchain works is mind-blowing. And one of the reasons why is it involves processing some pretty complicated concepts with terrible names. I mean, cryptographic algorithms and hash functions, and people called miners, who verify transactions -- all that was created by this mysterious person or persons called Satoshi Nakamoto. Now, that is a massive trust leap that hasn't happened yet.
Ta će se promjena samo ubrzati pojavom blockchain-a, inovativne tehnologije koja pokreće digitalni novac Bitcoin. Budimo iskreni, način na koji Blockchain funkcionira nevjerojatan je. Dijelom zato što uključuje razumijevanje nekih prilično kompliciranih koncepata groznih imena. Mislim, šifrirani algoritmi i hash-funkcije ljudi-rudari koji odobravaju transakacije -- i sve je to kreirala tajanstvena osoba ili osobe zvane Satoshi Nakamoto. E, to je stvarno novi korak prema povjerenju.
(Applause)
(Pljesak)
But let's try to imagine this. So "The Economist" eloquently described the blockchain as the great chain of being sure about things. The easiest way I can describe it is imagine the blocks as spreadsheets, and they are filled with assets. So that could be a property title. It could be a stock trade. It could be a creative asset, such as the rights to a song. Every time something moves from one place on the register to somewhere else, that asset transfer is time-stamped and publicly recorded on the blockchain. It's that simple. Right.
Pokušajmo zamisliti ovo. Časopis "The Economist" rječito je opisao Blockchain kao veliki lanac povjerenja u to što se događa. Najlakše ga je opisati kao blokove u obliku tablice koje su ispunjene sredstvima. To može biti ime vlasništvo imovine. Može biti trgovina dionicama ili nematerijalna imovina, poput autorskih prava na pjesmu. Svaki put kada se nešto pomakne s jednog mjesta u evidenciji na drugo taj transfer imovine dobiva vremensku oznaku i javno je obznanjen na Blockchainu. Zvuči jednostavno, zar ne?
So the real implication of the blockchain is that it removes the need for any kind of third party, such as a lawyer, or a trusted intermediary, or maybe not a government intermediary to facilitate the exchange. So if we go back to the trust stack, you still have to trust the idea, you have to trust the platform, but you don't have to trust the other person in the traditional sense.
Pravi, dublji smisao Blockchaina leži u isključivanju potrebe za bilo kakvim posrednikom poput odvjetnika, ovlaštenog ili možda neovlaštenog posrednika da potrebe provedbe razmjene. Da se vratimo stogu povjerenja - još uvijek trebate vjerovati ideji, trebate vjerovati platformi, ali ne morate vjerovati drugoj osobi u tradicionalnom smislu.
The implications are huge. In the same way the internet blew open the doors to an age of information available to everyone, the blockchain will revolutionize trust on a global scale.
Posljedice su ogromne. Na isti način na koji je internet otvorio vrata u doba informacija dostupnih svima, Blockchain će revolucionirati povjerenje na globalnoj razini.
Now, I've waited to the end intentionally to mention Uber, because I recognize that it is a contentious and widely overused example, but in the context of a new era of trust, it's a great case study. Now, we will see cases of abuse of distributed trust. We've already seen this, and it can go horribly wrong. I am not surprised that we are seeing protests from taxi associations all around the world trying to get governments to ban Uber based on claims that it is unsafe. I happened to be in London the day that these protests took place, and I happened to notice a tweet from Matt Hancock, who is a British minister for business.
Namjerno sam čekala sam kraj da spomenem Uber jer mi se čini da je to problematičan i previše korišten, ali odličan primjer u kontekstu novog doba povjerenja. Sada ćemo vidjeti primjere zloupotrebe raspršenog povjerenja. Već smo to vidjeli i znamo da može krenuti u sasvim pogrešnom pravcu. Ne iznenađuje me što udruženja taksista prosvjeduju diljem svijeta pokušavajući prisiliti vlade da zabrane Uber zbog njegove nesigurnosti. Slučajno sam bila u Londonu na dan kada su se takvi prosvjedi odvijali, a vidjela sam i tweet Matta Hancocka, britanskog ministra gospodarstva
And he wrote, "Does anyone have details of this #Uber app everyone's talking about?
koji kaže: "Je l' itko zna nešto o toj #Uber aplikaciji o kojoj svi govore?
(Laughter)
(Smijeh)
I'd never heard of it until today."
Prvi put čujem."
Now, the taxi associations, they legitimized the first layer of the trust stack. They legitimized the idea that they were trying to eliminate, and sign-ups increased by 850 percent in 24 hours. Now, this is a really strong illustration of how once a trust shift has happened around a behavior or an entire sector, you cannot reverse the story. Every day, five million people will take a trust leap and ride with Uber. In China, on Didi, the ride-sharing platform, 11 million rides taken every day. That's 127 rides per second, showing that this is a cross-cultural phenomenon.
Udruženja taksista prvu razinu stoga povjerenja učinila su pravovaljanom Učinili su pravovaljanom ideju koju su pokušali uništiti, a postigli su da se broj korisnika u 24 sata poveća za 850%. To je zaista snažna ilustracija kako je, kada se promjeni povjerenje u neko ponašanje ili u čitavi sektor, teško vratiti priču na početak. Svaki će dan 5 milijuna ljudi napraviti korak prema povjerenju i voziti se Uberom. U Kini, na Didiju, platformi za zajedničku vožnju, 11 milijuna ljudi vozi se svaki dan. To je 127 vožnji svake sekunde koje nam govore da je to međukulturalni fenomen.
And the fascinating thing is that both drivers and passengers report that seeing a name and seeing someone's photo and their rating makes them feel safer, and as you may have experienced, even behave a little more nicely in the taxi cab. Uber and Didi are early but powerful examples of how technology is creating trust between people in ways and on a scale never possible before.
Fascinira i činjenica da i vozači i putnici izvještavaju da im uvid u nečije ime, fotografiju i ocjene pomaže osjećati se sigurno i, kao što ste i vi mogli iskusiti, pomaže da se ponašaju pristojnije u taksiju. Uber i Didi su rani, ali snažni primjeri tehnologije koja stvara povjerenje među ljudima na način i u količini koja dosada nije bila moguća.
Today, many of us are comfortable getting into cars driven by strangers. We meet up with someone we swiped right to be matched with. We share our homes with people we do not know.
Danas mnogi od nas rado sjedamo u auto kojim upravljaju stranci. Sastanemo se s nekim da provjerimo jesmo li stvarno dobar par. Dijelimo naše domove s ljudima koje ne poznajemo.
This is just the beginning, because the real disruption happening isn't technological. It's the trust shift it creates, and for my part, I want to help people understand this new era of trust so that we can get it right and we can embrace the opportunities to redesign systems that are more transparent, inclusive and accountable.
To je tek početak jer pravo remećenje koje se događa nije tehnološko. Stvara promjenu povjerenja i što se mene tiče, želim pomoći ljudima razumijeti novo doba povjerenja kako bismo ga shvatili i prihvatili mogućnosti za poboljšanje sustava koji će biti transparentniji, inkluzivan i na koji će se moći računati.
Thank you very much.
Hvala najljepša.
(Applause)
(Pljesak)
Thank you.
Hvala.
(Applause)
(Pljesak)