So why do you think the rich should pay more in taxes? Why did you buy the latest iPhone? Why did you pick your current partner? And why did so many people vote for Donald Trump? What were the reasons, why did they do it?
為什麼你會認為 有錢人應該繳比較多稅? 為什麼你要買最新出的 iPhone? 為什麼你會選上你現在的伴侶? 為什麼有那麼多人投給川普? 理由是什麼?為什麼他們會這樣做?
So we ask this kind of question all the time, and we expect to get an answer. And when being asked, we expect ourselves to know the answer, to simply tell why we did as we did. But do we really know why? So when you say that you prefer George Clooney to Tom Hanks, due to his concern for the environment, is that really true? So you can be perfectly sincere and genuinely believe that this is the reason that drives your choice, but to me, it may still feel like something is missing. As it stands, due to the nature of subjectivity, it is actually very hard to ever prove that people are wrong about themselves.
我們總是在問這類的問題, 且我們期望能得到答案。 當被問的時候,我們也 期望我們自己知道答案, 很簡單地說出我們 所做所為背後的理由。 但我們真的知道為什麼嗎? 所以,當你說,你喜歡 喬治克隆尼多於湯姆漢克, 是因為他對環境比較關心, 真的是這樣嗎? 這麼一來,你就可以 非常真誠且真正相信 這就是驅使你做出 這個選擇的背後理由, 但對我而言,還是覺得少了什麼。 在目前的條件下, 因為主觀性的本質, 其實非常難去證明人們 對自己的看法是錯的。
So I'm an experimental psychologist, and this is the problem we've been trying to solve in our lab. So we wanted to create an experiment that would allow us to challenge what people say about themselves, regardless of how certain they may seem. But tricking people about their own mind is hard. So we turned to the professionals. The magicians. So they're experts at creating the illusion of a free choice. So when they say, "Pick a card, any card," the only thing you know is that your choice is no longer free. So we had a few fantastic brainstorming sessions with a group of Swedish magicians, and they helped us create a method in which we would be able to manipulate the outcome of people's choices. This way we would know when people are wrong about themselves, even if they don't know this themselves. So I will now show you a short movie showing this manipulation. So it's quite simple. The participants make a choice, but I end up giving them the opposite. And then we want to see: How did they react, and what did they say? So it's quite simple, but see if you can spot the magic going on. And this was shot with real participants, they don't know what's going on.
我是一名實驗心理學家, 這是我們在實驗室中 一直想解決的問題。 我們想要創造出一種實驗, 讓我們來挑戰人們對自己的說詞, 不論他們看起來有多肯定。 但要欺騙一個人關於 他自己大腦的事,是很困難的。 所以我們轉向專業人士求助。 魔術師。 他們的專業就是創造出 有自由選擇權的幻覺。 當他們說:「挑一張牌, 任何一張牌。」 你唯一能知道的就是, 你的選擇已不是自由的。 我們和一群瑞典的魔術師進行了 幾次很棒的腦力激盪, 他們協助我們創造了 一種方式,讓我們能 操控別人的選擇結果。 這樣,當人們對自己的看法 有誤時,我們就會知道, 即使他們自己都不知道。 我現在要播放一段影片, 說明這種操控要如何進行。 它相當簡單。 受試者要做一個選擇, 但我卻會給他們沒有選的那一個。 接著,我們想看看: 他們會如何反應、會說什麼? 所以它很簡單,但試試 你能否看到有魔術在發生。 這是在拍攝真實的受試者, 他們不知道會發生什麼事。
(Video) Petter Johansson: Hi, my name's Petter.
(影片)佩特強納森: 嗨,我是佩特。
Woman: Hi, I'm Becka.
女子:嗨,我是貝卡。
PJ: I'm going to show you pictures like this. And you'll have to decide which one you find more attractive.
佩特:我會給你看像這樣的照片。 你得要決定,你覺得 哪一張比較吸引人。
Becka: OK.
貝卡:好。
PJ: And then sometimes, I will ask you why you prefer that face.
佩特:有時,我會問你, 你為什麼偏好那張臉。
Becka: OK.
貝卡:好。
PJ: Ready? Becka: Yeah.
佩特:準備好了? 貝卡:好了。
PJ: Why did you prefer that one?
佩特:你為什麼比較喜歡那張臉?
Becka: The smile, I think.
貝卡:我想,是微笑。
PJ: Smile.
佩特:微笑。
Man: One on the left. Again, this one just struck me. Interesting shot. Since I'm a photographer, I like the way it's lit and looks.
男子:左邊的。 一樣,這張照片有觸到我的點。 有趣的拍攝鏡頭。 我是個攝影師,我喜歡它 打燈和看起來的感覺。
Petter Johansson: But now comes the trick.
佩特:但,現在來看一下騙局。
(Video) Woman 1: This one.
(影片)女子 1:這張。
PJ: So they get the opposite of their choice. And let's see what happens.
佩特:他們拿到的照片 是他們沒選的那張。 咱們來瞧瞧會發生什麼事。
Woman 2: Um ... I think he seems a little more innocent than the other guy.
女子 2:呃… 我覺得他看起來比另一個人無辜些。
Man: The one on the left. I like her smile and contour of the nose and face. So it's a little more interesting to me, and her haircut.
男子:左邊的。 我喜歡她的微笑, 還有鼻子和臉頰的輪廓。 所以我覺得這張比較有趣, 還有她的髮型。
Woman 3: This one. I like the smirky look better.
女子 3:這張。 我比較喜歡嘻嘻笑的外表。
PJ: You like the smirky look better?
佩特:你比較喜歡嘻嘻笑的外表?
(Laughter)
(笑聲)
Woman 3: This one.
女子 3:這張。
PJ: What made you choose him?
佩特:你為什麼選他?
Woman 3: I don't know, he looks a little bit like the Hobbit.
女子 3:我不知道, 他看起來有點像哈比人。
(Laughter)
(笑聲)
PJ: And what happens in the end when I tell them the true nature of the experiment? Yeah, that's it. I just have to ask a few questions.
佩特:在實驗結束時, 當我告訴他們這個實驗 真正在做什麼,會如何? 是的,就這樣。 我只需要問幾個問題。
Man: Sure.
男子:沒問題。
PJ: What did you think of this experiment, was it easy or hard?
佩特:你覺得這個實驗如何, 容易或困難?
Man: It was easy.
男子:容易。
PJ: During the experiments, I actually switched the pictures three times. Was this anything you noticed?
佩特:在實驗過程中, 我其實把照片偷換了三次。 你有注意到這點嗎?
Man: No. I didn't notice any of that.
男子:沒有,我沒注意到。
PJ: Not at all? Man: No. Switching the pictures as far as ...
佩特:完全沒有? 男子:沒有。 換照片的意思是……
PJ: Yeah, you were pointing at one of them but I actually gave you the opposite.
佩特:是的,你指著其中一張照片, 但我其實給你的是另一張。
Man: The opposite one. OK, when you -- No. Shows you how much my attention span was.
男子:另一張。好,當你── 不。這展現我的注意力持續多長。
(Laughter)
(笑聲)
PJ: Did you notice that sometimes during the experiment I switched the pictures?
佩特:你有注意到,在實驗過程中, 我有時偷換了照片?
Woman 2: No, I did not notice that.
女子 2:沒有,我沒注意到。
PJ: You were pointing at one, but then I gave you the other one. No inclination of that happening?
佩特:你指著這一張照片時, 我接著會給你另一張。 不知道有發生這件事?
Woman 2: No.
女子 2:不知道。
Woman 2: I did not notice.
女子 2:我沒注意到。
(Laughs)
(笑聲)
PJ: Thank you.
佩特:謝謝你。
Woman 2: Thank you.
女子 2:謝謝你。
PJ: OK, so as you probably figured out now, the trick is that I have two cards in each hand, and when I hand one of them over, the black one kind of disappears into the black surface on the table. So using pictures like this, normally not more than 20 percent of the participants detect these tries. And as you saw in the movie, when in the end we explain what's going on, they're very surprised and often refuse to believe the trick has been made. So this shows that this effect is quite robust and a genuine effect. But if you're interested in self-knowledge, as I am, the more interesting bit is, OK, so what did they say when they explained these choices?
(現場)佩特:好, 所以現在你們可能已經想通, 技倆在於我每隻手上有兩張牌, 當我把上面的牌移過去時, 因為桌子表面是黑的,所以 下面黑色的那張就像消失了一樣。 用像這樣的照片, 通常不到 20% 的 受試者會發現有詐。 如同在影片中看到的, 在最後我們會解釋發生了什麼事, 他們會很驚訝,通常會拒絕 相信我有使用這個技倆。 這表示,這種效應是 相當可靠且真實的效應。 但,如果你和我一樣, 對「自我知識」感興趣, 更有趣的部分是, 當他們在解釋他們的選擇時, 他們說了什麼?
So we've done a lot of analysis of the verbal reports in these experiments. And this graph simply shows that if you compare what they say in a manipulated trial with a nonmanipulated trial, that is when they explain a normal choice they've made and one where we manipulated the outcome, we find that they are remarkably similar. So they are just as emotional, just as specific, and they are expressed with the same level of certainty.
我們做了很多分析, 分析這些實驗中的口頭報告。 這張圖顯示的是 如果你把他們在有詐的 那幾回當中的說詞, 拿來和沒詐的那幾回做比較, 也就是他們解釋正常選擇時的說詞, 和我們在選擇結果動手腳之後 他們的說詞做比較, 我們發現,說詞是非常像的。 這些說詞都一樣情緒化、一樣明確, 而且是用相同的肯定度說出來的。
So the strong conclusion to draw from this is that if there are no differences between a real choice and a manipulated choice, perhaps we make things up all the time.
這實驗能導出一個強力的結論, 如果在真正的選擇 和被操控的選擇之間沒有差異的話, 也許我們隨時隨地都是在編理由。
But we've also done studies where we try to match what they say with the actual faces. And then we find things like this. So here, this male participant, he preferred the girl to the left, he ended up with the one to the right. And then, he explained his choice like this. "She is radiant. I would rather have approached her at the bar than the other one. And I like earrings." And whatever made him choose the girl on the left to begin with, it can't have been the earrings, because they were actually sitting on the girl on the right. So this is a clear example of a post hoc construction. So they just explained the choice afterwards.
但我們也有做些研究, 試著把他們的說詞 和真實面孔來匹配。 我們的發現是這樣的。 這裡,這位男性受試者 偏好左邊的女子, 但他拿到的是右邊的照片。 接著,他是這樣解釋他的選擇。 「她容光煥發。 在酒吧,我會比較想 接近她而不是其他人。 且我喜歡她的耳環。」 不論一開始他是 為什麼選左邊的女子, 絕對不會是因為耳環, 因為其實只有右邊的女子才有耳環。 這是個很清楚的例子, 說明了「事後建構」。 他們是在事後才解釋他們的選擇。
So what this experiment shows is, OK, so if we fail to detect that our choices have been changed, we will immediately start to explain them in another way. And what we also found is that the participants often come to prefer the alternative, that they were led to believe they liked. So if we let them do the choice again, they will now choose the face they had previously rejected. So this is the effect we call "choice blindness." And we've done a number of different studies -- we've tried consumer choices, choices based on taste and smell and even reasoning problems.
這個實驗所顯示的是, 如果我們沒能發現 我們的選擇被掉包了, 我們會馬上用另一種方式 來解釋我們的選擇。 我們也發現, 受試者會漸漸喜歡上另一個選擇, 他們被誤導以為 自己喜歡的那個選擇。 如果我們再讓他們選一次, 他們現在會選的, 是他們先前沒選的那個。 這個效應是所謂的「選擇盲目」。 我們做了許多不同的研究── 我們試過消費者選擇, 依據味覺和嗅覺做的選擇, 甚至試過推理問題。
But what you all want to know is of course does this extend also to more complex, more meaningful choices? Like those concerning moral and political issues.
但,當然,你們都想知道的是, 這個現象也會延伸到更複雜、 更有意義的選擇上嗎? 比如和道德以及政治有關的選擇?
So the next experiment, it needs a little bit of a background. So in Sweden, the political landscape is dominated by a left-wing and a right-wing coalition. And the voters may move a little bit between the parties within each coalition, but there is very little movement between the coalitions. And before each elections, the newspapers and the polling institutes put together what they call "an election compass" which consists of a number of dividing issues that sort of separates the two coalitions. Things like if tax on gasoline should be increased or if the 13 months of paid parental leave should be split equally between the two parents in order to increase gender equality.
接下來的實驗需要一點點背景說明。 在瑞典,政治的狀況是 由左翼和右翼組的聯合政府在主導。 投票人可能會在每個聯盟中的 兩黨之間有一點點猶疑, 但對不同聯盟之間的選擇 就幾乎不會猶疑。 在每次大選之前, 報紙和民意調查機構 會做出所謂的「選舉羅盤」, 它包含了數個很有區分性的議題, 那些議題可以把兩個聯盟給區別開。 比如,汽油稅應該要提高, 或是十三個月的育嬰假是否應該 應該平等分給父親和母親, 來改善性別平權。
So, before the last Swedish election, we created an election compass of our own. So we walked up to people in the street and asked if they wanted to do a quick political survey. So first we had them state their voting intention between the two coalitions. Then we asked them to answer 12 of these questions. They would fill in their answers, and we would ask them to discuss, so OK, why do you think tax on gas should be increased? And we'd go through the questions. Then we had a color coded template that would allow us to tally their overall score. So this person would have one, two, three, four five, six, seven, eight, nine scores to the left, so he would lean to the left, basically. And in the end, we also had them fill in their voting intention once more.
所以,在上次瑞典大選之前, 我們做了我們自己的選舉羅盤。 我們到街上找人, 問他們是否願意做個 快速的政治調查。 首先,我們請他們說出他們傾向於 投票給兩個聯盟中的哪一個。 接著我們請他們回答 十二個這樣的問題。 他們會填寫他們的答案, 接著我們會請他們討論, 好,那你為什麼認為 汽油稅應該要提高? 我們把問題都問完。 接著,我們有個用顏色編碼的樣板, 讓我們能計算他們的總分數。 這個人會有一、二、三、四、 五、六、七、八、九分都是靠左的, 所以,基本上,他傾向左翼。 最後,我們會再次請他們 填寫他們的投票傾向。
But of course, there was also a trick involved. So first, we walked up to people, we asked them about their voting intention and then when they started filling in, we would fill in a set of answers going in the opposite direction. We would put it under the notepad. And when we get the questionnaire, we would simply glue it on top of the participant's own answer. So there, it's gone. And then we would ask about each of the questions: How did you reason here? And they'll state the reasons, together we will sum up their overall score. And in the end, they will state their voting intention again.
當然,我們耍了個小技倆。 首先,我們走向路人, 我們問他們的投票傾向, 接著,當他們開始填寫時, 我們會填寫一組相反的答案。 我們把這張紙放在筆記本的下方。 當我們拿到問卷時, 我們就把它黏在受測者的答案上面。 就這樣,它不見了。 接著,我們會針對 每個問題再問他們: 你在這題的理由是什麼? 他們會說明理由, 我們會一起把總分加起來。 最終,他們會再次陳述 他們的投票傾向。
So what we find first of all here, is that very few of these manipulations are detected. And they're not detected in the sense that they realize, "OK, you must have changed my answer," it was more the case that, "OK, I must've misunderstood the question the first time I read it. Can I please change it?" And even if a few of these manipulations were changed, the overall majority was missed. So we managed to switch 90 percent of the participants' answers from left to right, right to left, their overall profile.
首先,我們發現的是, 很少有人察覺到我們的技倆。 意思是說,他們並沒有發現: 「你一定有偷改我的答案。」 通常比較會是: 「我一定是在第一次讀 問題時誤解了它的意思。 我能改正嗎?」 即使有少數我們操控的部分被改了, 總的來說大部分都還是被忽視了。 所以受試者的答案有 90% 都被我們成功偷換掉了, 整體的側寫上, 左翼換到右翼,右翼換到左翼。
And what happens then when they are asked to motivate their choices? And here we find much more interesting verbal reports than compared to the faces. People say things like this, and I'll read it to you. So, "Large-scale governmental surveillance of email and internet traffic ought to be permissible as means to combat international crime and terrorism." "So you agree to some extent with this statement." "Yes." "So how did you reason here?" "Well, like, as it is so hard to get at international crime and terrorism, I think there should be those kinds of tools." And then the person remembers an argument from the newspaper in the morning. "Like in the newspaper today, it said they can like, listen to mobile phones from prison, if a gang leader tries to continue his crimes from inside. And I think it's madness that we have so little power that we can't stop those things when we actually have the possibility to do so." And then there's a little bit back and forth in the end: "I don't like that they have access to everything I do, but I still think it's worth it in the long run." So, if you didn't know that this person just took part in a choice blindness experiment, I don't think you would question that this is the true attitude of that person.
當他們被問及為什麼要做 這個選擇時,會發生什麼事? 在這裡,我們得到的口頭報告, 比之前面孔比較時的更有意思許多。 人們會這樣回答,讓我讀給你們聽。 「對電子郵件及網路流量的 大規模政府監控 應該要被允許,做為對抗 國際犯罪和恐怖主義的手段。」 「所以,你對這段陳述 算是認同。」「是的。」 「你的理由是什麼?」 「嗯,因為國際犯罪 和恐怖主義很難處理, 我認為應該要有這類的工具。」 接著,這個人記起 在早報上的一段論述。 「就像今天的報紙寫的, 它說,他們能夠聽到 從監獄打的行動電話, 如果幫派首領試圖從監獄內 繼續他的犯罪就會被發現。 而我認為,如果我們沒有什麼力量 能阻止這類事情,那就太瘋狂了, 因為我們其實是有可能做到的。」 到最後,重申了一點: 「我不喜歡他們能 知道我所做的任何事, 但我仍然認為長期來看是值得的。」 所以,如果你不知道這個人 剛剛參與了一項選擇盲目實驗, 我想你應該不會質疑 這是不是這個人的真實態度。
And what happens in the end, with the voting intention? What we find -- that one is also clearly affected by the questionnaire. So we have 10 participants shifting from left to right or from right to left. We have another 19 that go from clear voting intention to being uncertain. Some go from being uncertain to clear voting intention. And then there is a number of participants staying uncertain throughout. And that number is interesting because if you look at what the polling institutes say the closer you get to an election, the only people that are sort of in play are the ones that are considered uncertain. But we show there is a much larger number that would actually consider shifting their attitudes.
最後的投票傾向又會發生什麼狀況? 我們發現── 人也會明顯受到問卷的影響。 我們共有十名受試者 從左翼變成右翼, 或從右翼變成左翼。 我們還有十九名受試者, 投票傾向從明確變成不確定。 有些是從不確定變成明確。 還有許多受試者 從頭到尾都一直不確定。 那個數字很有意思, 因為如果你看民意調查機構的說法, 越接近大選時, 唯一還會有影響力的人, 就是被認為還不確定的人。 但我們發現,有更多的人 是確實會考慮轉變他們的態度的。
And here I must point out, of course, that you are not allowed to use this as an actual method to change people's votes before an election, and we clearly debriefed them afterwards and gave them every opportunity to change back to whatever they thought first. But what this shows is that if you can get people to see the opposite view and engage in a conversation with themselves, that could actually make them change their views. OK.
在這裡,我必須要指出, 當然你不能夠用這個方式 來真正在選舉前去改變選民 要投給誰, 我們在事後有明確地跟他們做匯報, 給他們機會改回答案, 改回他們一開始的想法。 但這實驗發現的是, 如果你能讓人民去看另一方的觀點, 並讓他們和自己進行對話, 其實有可能改變他們的觀點。 好。
So what does it all mean? What do I think is going on here? So first of all, a lot of what we call self-knowledge is actually self-interpretation. So I see myself make a choice, and then when I'm asked why, I just try to make as much sense of it as possible when I make an explanation. But we do this so quickly and with such ease that we think we actually know the answer when we answer why. And as it is an interpretation, of course we sometimes make mistakes. The same way we make mistakes when we try to understand other people. So beware when you ask people the question "why" because what may happen is that, if you asked them, "So why do you support this issue?" "Why do you stay in this job or this relationship?" -- what may happen when you ask why is that you actually create an attitude that wasn't there before you asked the question.
所以這一切的意思是什麼? 我認為這裡發生了什麼事? 首先, 我們所謂的自我知識, 其實大部分是自我詮釋。 我看到我自己做了一個選擇, 接著,當我被問到為什麼時, 我就是盡可能去做解釋 來讓這個選擇合理化。 但我們這麼做的過程既快又輕易, 誤以為自己知道「為什麼」的答案。 既然它只是一種詮釋, 當然我們有可能詮釋錯誤, 就像我們試圖了解他人時發生誤解。 所以,當你問別人「為什麼」 這個問題時,要很小心, 因為很有可能當你問他們為什麼, 「你為什麼支持這個議題?」 「你為什麼不換工作, 為什麼持續這段戀情?」── 當你問為什麼時 很可能會造出一種態度, 造出在你發問前不存在的態度。
And this is of course important in your professional life, as well, or it could be. If, say, you design something and then you ask people, "Why do you think this is good or bad?" Or if you're a journalist asking a politician, "So, why did you make this decision?" Or if indeed you are a politician and try to explain why a certain decision was made.
當然,這對你的職涯也很重要, 或可能很重要。 比如你設計一樣東西,接著問別人: 「你為什麼覺得它很好或不好?」 如果你是記者,去問政治人物: 「你為什麼做這個決策?」 或如果你本身是政治人物, 試著要解釋為什麼會做出某個決策。
So this may all seem a bit disturbing. But if you want to look at it from a positive direction, it could be seen as showing, OK, so we're actually a little bit more flexible than we think. We can change our minds. Our attitudes are not set in stone. And we can also change the minds of others, if we can only get them to engage with the issue and see it from the opposite view. And in my own personal life, since starting with this research -- So my partner and I, we've always had the rule that you're allowed to take things back. Just because I said I liked something a year ago, doesn't mean I have to like it still. And getting rid of the need to stay consistent is actually a huge relief and makes relational life so mush easier to live.
這一切聽起來有點讓人不安。 但如果從正面來看, 可以把它視為是展示出…… 我們其實比自認的還更有彈性。 我們能改變心意。 我們的態度不是一成不變的。 我們也能改變他人的心意, 只要我們能讓他們 真正去了解那個問題, 從另一個角度去看那問題。 在我自己的生活中── 自從開始這項研究之後, 我的搭擋和我就一直遵守一條規則, 那就是:你可以反悔。 因為一年前我說過喜歡某樣東西, 並不表示我現在仍然得要喜歡它。 擺脫「需要維持一致性」的需求, 其實能讓人大大鬆一口氣, 也讓我們能夠輕鬆過人際的生活。
Anyway, so the conclusion must be: know that you don't know yourself. Or at least not as well as you think you do.
總之,結論就是: 要知道你並不了解自己, 或是至少沒有你想像的那麼了解。
Thanks.
謝謝。
(Applause)
(掌聲)