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(Video) Announcer: Threats, in the wake of Bin Laden's death, have spiked. Announcer Two: Famine in Somalia. Announcer Three: Police pepper spray. Announcer Four: Vicious cartels. Announcer Five: Caustic cruise lines. Announcer Six: Societal decay. Announcer Seven: 65 dead. Announcer Eight: Tsunami warning. Announcer Nine: Cyberattacks. Multiple Announcers: Drug war. Mass destruction. Tornado. Recession. Default. Doomsday. Egypt. Syria. Crisis. Death. Disaster. Oh, my God.
(视频)播音员:在本拉登被击毙后,恐怖威胁数量激增。 播音员2:索马里出现饥荒。播音员3:警察使用胡椒喷雾。 播音员4:凶恶的毒枭。播音员5:破裂的游轮。 播音员6:社会风气败坏。播音员7:65人死亡。 播音员8:海啸警告。播音员9:网络攻击。 多位播音员:毒品战争、大规模破坏、飓风、 经济衰退、违约、末日、埃及、叙利亚、 危机、死亡、灾难。 哦我的天哪!
Peter Diamandis: So those are just a few of the clips I collected over the last six months -- could have easily been the last six days or the last six years. The point is that the news media preferentially feeds us negative stories because that's what our minds pay attention to. And there's a very good reason for that. Every second of every day, our senses bring in way too much data than we can possibly process in our brains.
彼得迪曼蒂斯:这是我在过去6个月里 收集的一些视频。 如果是在6天,或者过去6年里 也可以轻易收集到类似的片段。 重点是新闻媒体倾向于 向我们灌输负面信息。 因为我们的大脑特别容易关注这些。 当然大脑这样做是有很重要的理由。 每时每刻, 我们的“传感器”收集大量的信息 多到我们的大脑处理不过来。
And because nothing is more important to us than survival, the first stop of all of that data is an ancient sliver of the temporal lobe called the amygdala. Now the amygdala is our early warning detector, our danger detector. It sorts and scours through all of the information looking for anything in the environment that might harm us. So given a dozen news stories, we will preferentially look at the negative news. And that old newspaper saying, "If it bleeds it leads," is very true. So given all of our digital devices that are bringing all the negative news to us seven days a week, 24 hours a day, it's no wonder that we're pessimistic. It's no wonder that people think that the world is getting worse.
而其中没有比与生存相关的信息 更重要的。 所有信息输入的第一站就是 颞叶上一个叫做大脑扁桃体的 非常原始的部分。 大脑扁桃体是我们的早期预警侦测器, 危险探测仪。 它将所有信息分类并仔细查阅, 探测环境中任何可能的威胁。 所以每当我们打开报纸, 就会不自觉地阅读 各种负面信息。 那个过去有关报纸的说法: ”流血事件必上头条。“ 其实是很有道理的。 而现在我们有各种数字化设备, 无时无刻地向我们 输送各种负面新闻。 难怪大家这么容易悲观。 难怪人们觉得 世界在倒退。
But perhaps that's not the case. Perhaps instead, it's the distortions brought to us of what's really going on. Perhaps the tremendous progress we've made over the last century by a series of forces are, in fact, accelerating to a point that we have the potential in the next three decades to create a world of abundance. Now I'm not saying we don't have our set of problems -- climate crisis, species extinction, water and energy shortage -- we surely do. And as humans, we are far better at seeing the problems way in advance, but ultimately we knock them down.
但事实或许 并不是这样, 我们所接受的信息 是被扭曲的。 我们的社会在上世纪 一系列事件的影响下 所经历的巨大的进步 正在不断加速, 事实上,这样的速度令我们在未来三十年中, 拥有创造一个富足的世界的可能性。 我并不是说 这些问题不存在- 气候危机,物种灭绝, 水资源和能源短缺的情况都确实发生了。 作为人类,我们太擅长对 危机做出各种预估, 但最终我们会消除它们。
So let's look at what this last century has been to see where we're going. Over the last hundred years, the average human lifespan has more than doubled, average per capita income adjusted for inflation around the world has tripled. Childhood mortality has come down a factor of 10. Add to that the cost of food, electricity, transportation, communication have dropped 10 to 1,000-fold. Steve Pinker has showed us that, in fact, we're living during the most peaceful time ever in human history. And Charles Kenny that global literacy has gone from 25 percent to over 80 percent in the last 130 years. We truly are living in an extraordinary time. And many people forget this.
让我们来回顾下 上个世纪发生了什么, 来了解我们正向着什么方向在前进。 过去的几百年里, 人类的平均寿命增加了2倍以上, 经过通货膨胀调整计算,全世界的人均收入 增加了3倍。 婴儿死亡率 下降了10倍。 食品、用电、交通、 通信的成本 下降了10倍到1000倍不等。 史蒂夫平克为我们指出, 我们正生活在人类历史上 最和平的时代。 还有查尔斯·肯尼提到 世界范围的识字率在过去的130年里从25% 上升到了80%。 我们确实生活在一个伟大的时代。 然而许多人忘记了这点。
And we keep setting our expectations higher and higher. In fact, we redefine what poverty means. Think of this, in America today, the majority of people under the poverty line still have electricity, water, toilets, refrigerators, television, mobile phones, air conditioning and cars. The wealthiest robber barons of the last century, the emperors on this planet, could have never dreamed of such luxuries.
我们不断地把期望越定越高。 事实上,我们已经更改了“贫穷”的涵义。 想一下,在今天的美国 大部分生活在贫困线下的人 仍然拥有电力,饮用水,厕所,冰箱, 电视,行动电话, 空调和汽车。 上世纪最富有的强盗大亨,这个星球上的帝王们, 永远都想象不到这样的奢侈生活。
Underpinning much of this is technology, and of late, exponentially growing technologies. My good friend Ray Kurzweil showed that any tool that becomes an information technology jumps on this curve, on Moore's Law, and experiences price performance doubling every 12 to 24 months. That's why the cellphone in your pocket is literally a million times cheaper and a thousand times faster than a supercomputer of the '70s. Now look at this curve. This is Moore's Law over the last hundred years. I want you to notice two things from this curve. Number one, how smooth it is -- through good time and bad time, war time and peace time, recession, depression and boom time. This is the result of faster computers being used to build faster computers. It doesn't slow for any of our grand challenges. And also, even though it's plotted on a log curve on the left, it's curving upwards. The rate at which the technology is getting faster is itself getting faster.
而这一切的基础 是科技。 和近代 指数式增长的科技。 我的好朋友雷·库兹威尔 展示了任何信息科技的工具 都遵从这条曲线,即摩尔定律。 并经历每12到24个月 性价比翻一倍的增长。 这就是为什么你口袋里的行动电话 相比70年代的超级电脑要便宜 100万倍,而且还要快上1000倍 再看这个曲线。 这是过去几百年里的摩尔定律。 我想要大家注意这曲线所体现的2件事 第一,它非常的平滑- 无论时代是好是坏,无论战争或和平, 经济衰退或增长。 这是因为更快的电脑被用来制造 更更快的电脑所产生的结果。 它不会因为我们面临的巨大挑战所延缓。 尽管在左边 呈现出对数曲线 它也是仍然是向上弯曲。 科技前进加速的本身 也在不断变快。
And on this curve, riding on Moore's Law, are a set of extraordinarily powerful technologies available to all of us. Cloud computing, what my friends at Autodesk call infinite computing; sensors and networks; robotics; 3D printing, which is the ability to democratize and distribute personalized production around the planet; synthetic biology; fuels, vaccines and foods; digital medicine; nanomaterials; and A.I. I mean, how many of you saw the winning of Jeopardy by IBM's Watson? I mean, that was epic. In fact, I scoured the headlines looking for the best headline in a newspaper I could. And I love this: "Watson Vanquishes Human Opponents." Jeopardy's not an easy game. It's about the nuance of human language. And imagine if you would A.I.'s like this on the cloud available to every person with a cellphone.
在这摩尔定律的曲线上, 是一系列对所有人都开放 的强大的科技。 云计算, 我在Autodesk公司的朋友称之为无限计算; 传感器和网络,机器人; 3D打印,让我们获得在全世界范围普及和部署 个性化生产的能力; 人造生命; 带来新的燃料,疫苗和食物; 数字化医药;纳米材料和人工智能。 观众中多少人看到了IBM的Watson超级电脑在 Jeopardy智力竞赛的获胜? 那真是太伟大了。 我查看各种报纸的新闻头条 找到我觉得最好的 我喜欢这句:”Watson征服人类对手。“ Jeopardy不是个容易的比赛。 获胜关键在于理解人类语言中的微妙细节。 你可以想象一下 像这样的人工智能存在于云计算中 所有拥有行动电话的人都可以使用的景象。
Four years ago here at TED, Ray Kurzweil and I started a new university called Singularity University. And we teach our students all of these technologies, and particularly how they can be used to solve humanity's grand challenges. And every year we ask them to start a company or a product or a service that can affect positively the lives of a billion people within a decade. Think about that, the fact that, literally, a group of students can touch the lives of a billion people today. 30 years ago that would have sounded ludicrous. Today we can point at dozens of companies that have done just that.
四年前在TED, 雷·库兹威尔和我创立了一所新的大学 叫做“Singularity University”。 我们教给学生各种科技 特别是如何利用这些科技 来解决人类面临的巨大挑战。 每一年我们都要求学生 创立一件公司或制作一种产品或者提供一项服务 能在十年内对十亿人的生活产生 积极而实际的影响。 想象一下一群学生 今天可以影响到十亿人的生活。 30年前这听起来非常可笑。 今天我们可以列举出几十间 有这样成就的公司。
When I think about creating abundance, it's not about creating a life of luxury for everybody on this planet; it's about creating a life of possibility. It is about taking that which was scarce and making it abundant. You see, scarcity is contextual, and technology is a resource-liberating force. Let me give you an example.
当我想到创造富足社会, 并不是要为地球上的每一个人创造奢华的生活; 而是创造充满可能性的生活。 是把原先稀缺的资源 变得充沛 稀缺性是相对的, 而科技是一股解放资源的力量。 我来举一个例子。
So this is a story of Napoleon III in the mid-1800s. He's the dude on the left. He invited over to dinner the king of Siam. All of Napoleon's troops were fed with silver utensils, Napoleon himself with gold utensils. But the King of Siam, he was fed with aluminum utensils. You see, aluminum was the most valuable metal on the planet, worth more than gold and platinum. It's the reason that the tip of the Washington Monument is made of aluminum. You see, even though aluminum is 8.3 percent of the Earth by mass, it doesn't come as a pure metal. It's all bound by oxygen and silicates. But then the technology of electrolysis came along and literally made aluminum so cheap that we use it with throw-away mentality.
这是一个拿破仑三世的故事 在1800到1810年中期。 他是左边这位 邀请了泰王 共进晚餐。 所有拿破仑的士兵 使用银器用餐, 拿破仑自己则使用金器。 但是泰国国王 使用铝制的餐具。 铝 曾经是世界上最贵重的金属, 比黄金和白金还要昂贵。 这就是为什么华盛顿纪念碑的 顶端是铝制的。 即使铝占了地球 总重量的8.3%。 但它不是以纯金属的形态存在。 它都是和氧或者硅酸结合。 但是随后出现了电解技术 使得铝的价格如此低廉 以致我们就把铝制品当一次性用品般看待。
So let's project this analogy going forward. We think about energy scarcity. Ladies and gentlemen, we are on a planet that is bathed with 5,000 times more energy than we use in a year. 16 terawatts of energy hits the Earth's surface every 88 minutes. It's not about being scarce, it's about accessibility. And there's good news here. For the first time, this year the cost of solar-generated electricity is 50 percent that of diesel-generated electricity in India -- 8.8 rupees versus 17 rupees. The cost of solar dropped 50 percent last year. Last month, MIT put out a study showing that by the end of this decade, in the sunny parts of the United States, solar electricity will be six cents a kilowatt hour compared to 15 cents as a national average.
让我们把这个比喻应用到其他方面, 让我们想一想能源短缺。 女士们先生们, 我们生活的这个星球上 接收着相当于我们年平均能源消耗 5000多倍的能量。 每88分钟有16太瓦的能源 投向地球表面。 问题并不是能源稀缺, 而是可及性。 现在有几个好消息, 今年是有史以来第一次 在印度,太阳能发电的成本降低至 化石燃料发电成本的一半-- 8.8卢布相比较17卢布。 去年太阳能发电的成本降低了一半 上个月,MIT发布了一个研究报告 显示到2020年 在美国阳光充足的地区, 太阳能电力费用会降至6美分一千瓦/小时 相比较全国平均 标准是15美分。
And if we have abundant energy, we also have abundant water. Now we talk about water wars. Do you remember when Carl Sagan turned the Voyager spacecraft back towards the Earth, in 1990 after it just passed Saturn? He took a famous photo. What was it called? "A Pale Blue Dot." Because we live on a water planet. We live on a planet 70 percent covered by water. Yes, 97.5 percent is saltwater, two percent is ice, and we fight over a half a percent of the water on this planet, but here too there is hope. And there is technology coming online, not 10, 20 years from now, right now. There's nanotechnology coming on, nanomaterials.
如果我们有充足的能源, 也就会有丰富的洁净水。 下面我们来聊下水的战争。 还记得吗? 1990年,Carl Saga在航海者太空飞船 经过土星的时候, 调转其方向面对地球。 拍下了一幅著名的照片,叫什么名字? ”淡蓝色的小点。“ 因为我们生活在一颗"水行星"上 地球表面70%被水覆盖 是的,97.5%是海水 2%是冰山, 我们则在争夺世界上1.5%的水资源, 但我们仍然有希望。 有一项科技正准备投入应用, 并不是未来的10年20年以后, 就是现在。 有一种纳米科技。
And the conversation I had with Dean Kamen this morning, one of the great DIY innovators, I'd like to share with you -- he gave me permission to do so -- his technology called Slingshot that many of you may have heard of, it is the size of a small dorm room refrigerator. It's able to generate a thousand liters of clean drinking water a day out of any source -- saltwater, polluted water, latrine -- at less than two cents a liter. The chairman of Coca-Cola has just agreed to do a major test of hundreds of units of this in the developing world. And if that pans out, which I have every confidence it will, Coca-Cola will deploy this globally to 206 countries around the planet. This is the kind of innovation, empowered by this technology, that exists today.
今天早上我和一个伟大的DIY 发明家Dean Kamen聊天。 我想要和大家分享-我得到了他的允许- 他开发的技术叫做“弹弓” 在座的一些朋友可能听说过, 它是一个小房间一般大的冰箱, 每天可以从 任何水源中-海水,污染水,公共厕所- 生产出一千公升的洁净饮用水。 每公升的成本低于2美分。 可口可乐的主席最近授意 在多个发展中国家对 数百台“弹弓”进行大规模测试。 如果测试成功, 我很有信心它会成功, 可口可乐将会在全球206个国家 对该设备 进行部署。 这就是当下已经存在的由科技 驱动的创新。
And we've seen this in cellphones. My goodness, we're going to hit 70 percent penetration of cellphones in the developing world by the end of 2013. Think about it, that a Masai warrior on a cellphone in the middle of Kenya has better mobile comm than President Reagan did 25 years ago. And if they're on a smartphone on Google, they've got access to more knowledge and information than President Clinton did 15 years ago. They're living in a world of information and communication abundance that no one could have ever predicted. Better than that, the things that you and I spent tens and hundreds of thousands of dollars for -- GPS, HD video and still images, libraries of books and music, medical diagnostic technology -- are now literally dematerializing and demonetizing into your cellphone.
我们在移动电话上看到这点。 我的天哪,在2013年底,发展中国家的 移动电话渗透率将 达到70%。 想象一下。 在肯尼亚中部的一个马赛士兵 拥有的比25年前的里根总统 更好的移动通讯。 如果他们使用智能手机访问Google, 他们将得到比克林顿总统15年前 所得到的更多的知识和信息。 他们生活在一个信息和通讯富足的世界 这在过去没人能预测到的。 还有更棒的, 我们花费了 成千上百美金所获得的- GPS,高清电视和 图形图像, 以及医疗诊断技术- 被非物质化并非商业化 输入到你的行动电话中。
Probably the best part of it is what's coming down the pike in health. Last month, I had the pleasure of announcing with Qualcomm Foundation something called the $10 million Qualcomm Tricorder X Prize. We're challenging teams around the world to basically combine these technologies into a mobile device that you can speak to, because it's got A.I., you can cough on it, you can do a finger blood prick. And to win, it needs to be able to diagnose you better than a team of board-certified doctors. So literally, imagine this device in the middle of the developing world where there are no doctors, 25 percent of the disease burden and 1.3 percent of the health care workers. When this device sequences an RNA or DNA virus that it doesn't recognize, it calls the CDC and prevents the pandemic from happening in the first place.
这其中最好的 部分或许是医疗。 上个月我很荣幸和高通基金共同宣布 1000万美金高通手持移动分析仪X大赛。 我们向全世界的团队发出挑战 来将这些科技 组合进移动设备。 你可以向它说话,因为它拥有人工智能 也可以对着它咳嗽,或者扎手指验血。 要赢得竞赛,这个设备需要能为你提供比一组 经过委员会验证的医师更好的诊断。 想象这个设备 应用在缺少医师,25%的疾病负担 仅有1.3%的医疗人员 的发展中国家。 如果这个设备对病毒的RNA或者DNA进行测序后 无法识别, 它会呼叫疾病控制中心 第一时间防止大规模疫情的爆发。
But here, here is the biggest force for bringing about a world of abundance. I call it the rising billion. So the white lines here are population. We just passed the seven billion mark on Earth. And by the way, the biggest protection against a population explosion is making the world educated and healthy. In 2010, we had just short of two billion people online, connected. By 2020, that's going from two billion to five billion Internet users. Three billion new minds who have never been heard from before are connecting to the global conversation. What will these people want? What will they consume? What will they desire? And rather than having economic shutdown, we're about to have the biggest economic injection ever. These people represent tens of trillions of dollars injected into the global economy. And they will get healthier by using the Tricorder, and they'll become better educated by using the Khan Academy, and by literally being able to use 3D printing and infinite computing [become] more productive than ever before.
还有最能创造 富足的世界的力量。 我称之为“崛起的十亿人”。 这道白线代表人口。 地球上的人口最近超过了70亿。 顺便提一下, 防止人口爆炸性增长的最好方法就是 让全世界人接受更多教育 变得更健康。 在2010年, 我们有接近20亿的人 与网络连接。 到2020年, 英特网用户将会从20亿 增长到50亿。 30亿未曾 被注意的新用户。 将参与到这全球的对话中来。 他们想要什么? 他们将会消费什么?他们的愿望是什么? 我们将迎来的是最大的, 是经济活力的注入而不是衰退。 这些人代表着 几十万亿美元的消费力 将会注入全球经济体。 他们会因为使用手持移动分析仪 而更健康, 也会因为观看Khan Academy变得更有聪慧, 随着3D打印和无限计算 的普及而变得比以往 任何时代都更有生产力。
So what could three billion rising, healthy, educated, productive members of humanity bring to us? How about a set of voices that have never been heard from before. What about giving the oppressed, wherever they might be, the voice to be heard and the voice to act for the first time ever? What will these three billion people bring? What about contributions we can't even predict? The one thing I've learned at the X Prize is that small teams driven by their passion with a clear focus can do extraordinary things, things that large corporations and governments could only do in the past.
30亿健康,接受教育, 富有生产力的人类社会成员 能为我们带来什么? 一系列我们从未接触过的新思维。 还有给予受到压制的, 或者其他困难的 人们首次获得受到关注 和帮助的机会。 这30亿人会带来什么? 或许是我们都还未能预见的贡献? 我在筹办X大赛的过程中体会到的一点是 目标清晰,富有激情的 小型团队就能取得 卓越的成就, 在过去只有大企业和政府 才能做到的事情。
Let me share and close with a story that really got me excited. There is a program that some of you might have heard of. It's a game called Foldit. It came out of the University of Washington in Seattle. And this is a game where individuals can actually take a sequence of amino acids and figure out how the protein is going to fold. And how it folds dictates its structure and its functionality. And it's very important for research in medicine. And up until now, it's been a supercomputer problem.
让我来分享一个故事作为结尾, 这个故事让我非常兴奋。 在座的有一些可能听说过这个项目。 是一个叫做Foldit的游戏。 它来自西雅图的华盛顿大学。 它是一个 能让个人获取一个氨基酸序列, 并分析出其中的蛋白质是如何折叠的。 其折叠的方式决定了该氨基酸的结构和功能。 这是非常重要的医学研究。 直到目前,这都还是一个由超级电脑来处理的问题。
And this game has been played by university professors and so forth. And it's literally, hundreds of thousands of people came online and started playing it. And it showed that, in fact, today, the human pattern recognition machinery is better at folding proteins than the best computers. And when these individuals went and looked at who was the best protein folder in the world, it wasn't an MIT professor, it wasn't a CalTech student, it was a person from England, from Manchester, a woman who, during the day, was an executive assistant at a rehab clinic and, at night, was the world's best protein folder.
这个游戏起先 是给大学教授玩。 然后成百上千的人也上线 开始玩这个游戏。 它也展示出时至今日, 人类的模式辨识机能 仍然要比最好的电脑都要强。 当大家排列出最好的 蛋白质折叠专家时, 并不是MIT的教授, 也不是加州理工学院的学生, 而是一位来自曼彻斯特的英国女性。 白天在一家康复治疗整所 行政助理的工作, 而夜晚也是全世界最好的蛋白质折叠专家。
Ladies and gentlemen, what gives me tremendous confidence in the future is the fact that we are now more empowered as individuals to take on the grand challenges of this planet. We have the tools with this exponential technology. We have the passion of the DIY innovator. We have the capital of the techno-philanthropist. And we have three billion new minds coming online to work with us to solve the grand challenges, to do that which we must do. We are living into extraordinary decades ahead.
女士们先生们 给予我对未来 巨大信心的, 是我们每一位作为个人都被赋予 挑战全世界面临的难题的能力。 我们拥有快速发展的科技和工具, 也有DIY发明家的激情。 大家都有能力成为技术-慈善家。 同时还有30亿新的用户 来到线上与我们合作 一起解决巨大的挑战, 做到我们必须要做的事情。 我们正要迎来卓越的几十年。
Thank you.
谢谢大家。
(Applause)
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