(Applause)
(掌聲)
(Video) Announcer: Threats, in the wake of Bin Laden's death, have spiked. Announcer Two: Famine in Somalia. Announcer Three: Police pepper spray. Announcer Four: Vicious cartels. Announcer Five: Caustic cruise lines. Announcer Six: Societal decay. Announcer Seven: 65 dead. Announcer Eight: Tsunami warning. Announcer Nine: Cyberattacks. Multiple Announcers: Drug war. Mass destruction. Tornado. Recession. Default. Doomsday. Egypt. Syria. Crisis. Death. Disaster. Oh, my God.
(賓拉登死後,威脅層出不窮。) (索馬利亞嘅飢荒。) (警方用嘅胡椒噴霧。) (企業使用惡意壟斷。) (遊船上嘅混亂。) (社會嘅腐敗。) (六十五人死亡。) (海嘯警報。) (網路上嘅駭客攻擊。) (毒品罪行。) (大規模毀滅。龍捲風。) (經濟衰退。債務拖欠。 世界末日。埃及。敘利亞。) (危機。死亡。災難。) 「喔!我嘅天啊!」
Peter Diamandis: So those are just a few of the clips I collected over the last six months -- could have easily been the last six days or the last six years. The point is that the news media preferentially feeds us negative stories because that's what our minds pay attention to. And there's a very good reason for that. Every second of every day, our senses bring in way too much data than we can possibly process in our brains.
呢啲新聞頭條只係我喺過去六個月 收集到嘅一小部分 同過去六日嘅頭條 或者過去六年嘅頭條冇咩差別 重點係,新聞媒體 鐘意報導負面新聞 因為呢類新聞可以吸引我哋關注 理由係 每日 我哋接收嘅資訊 超過我哋大腦負荷
And because nothing is more important to us than survival, the first stop of all of that data is an ancient sliver of the temporal lobe called the amygdala. Now the amygdala is our early warning detector, our danger detector. It sorts and scours through all of the information looking for anything in the environment that might harm us. So given a dozen news stories, we will preferentially look at the negative news. And that old newspaper saying, "If it bleeds it leads," is very true. So given all of our digital devices that are bringing all the negative news to us seven days a week, 24 hours a day, it's no wonder that we're pessimistic. It's no wonder that people think that the world is getting worse.
對我哋嚟講 冇嘢比生存更加重要 我哋嘅大腦接收信息嘅第一站 係一片發現已久嘅 叫做「扁桃體」嘅腦葉 扁桃體係我哋身體最初期嘅 警告同危險偵測系統 佢搜尋同整理所有訊息 揾出喺環境裡邊對我哋有害嘅物質 所以喺眾多嘅新聞裡邊 我哋會鍾意睇 負面嘅新聞 有一份舊報紙寫話: 「有血嘅嘢最好賣。」 呢句嘢好啱 宜家各種數碼設備 一個禮拜七日、一日 24 小時 猛咁對我哋輸啲負面新聞 唔怪得我哋咁悲觀 難怪啲人諗 世界越來越冇希望
But perhaps that's not the case. Perhaps instead, it's the distortions brought to us of what's really going on. Perhaps the tremendous progress we've made over the last century by a series of forces are, in fact, accelerating to a point that we have the potential in the next three decades to create a world of abundance. Now I'm not saying we don't have our set of problems -- climate crisis, species extinction, water and energy shortage -- we surely do. And as humans, we are far better at seeing the problems way in advance, but ultimately we knock them down.
事實上可能唔係噉 其實,有可能係 媒體帶畀我哋嘅消息 係扭曲咗嘅 可能我哋喺上個世紀 藉一連串努力 而創造嘅進步 加速到一個位 使我哋喺未來三十年有潛力 去創造一個富足嘅世界 我唔係話 我哋冇問題 氣候危機、物種滅絕、水源同能源匱乏 呢哋問題都一直存在 身為人類,我哋比其他動物 早睇到問題好多 然後我哋解決呢哋問題
So let's look at what this last century has been to see where we're going. Over the last hundred years, the average human lifespan has more than doubled, average per capita income adjusted for inflation around the world has tripled. Childhood mortality has come down a factor of 10. Add to that the cost of food, electricity, transportation, communication have dropped 10 to 1,000-fold. Steve Pinker has showed us that, in fact, we're living during the most peaceful time ever in human history. And Charles Kenny that global literacy has gone from 25 percent to over 80 percent in the last 130 years. We truly are living in an extraordinary time. And many people forget this.
我哋睇下 上個世紀到底發生咗咩事 同我哋下一步會去邊到 過去百幾年嚟 人類嘅平均壽命係以前嘅兩倍 通貨膨脹調整之後 嘅各國平均國民所得 係以前嘅三倍 童年嘅死亡率 都下降到原來嘅十分之一 仲有,糧食、電能、 交通、通訊嘅花費 變成以前嘅十分之一到千分之一 史迪芬.平克話俾我哋聽 宜家係 人類史上最和平嘅時代 Charles Kenny 話 過去 130 年,全球識字率 從 25% 升到 80% 我哋宜家生活喺一個黃金時期 但係好多人都唔記得呢樣嘢
And we keep setting our expectations higher and higher. In fact, we redefine what poverty means. Think of this, in America today, the majority of people under the poverty line still have electricity, water, toilets, refrigerators, television, mobile phones, air conditioning and cars. The wealthiest robber barons of the last century, the emperors on this planet, could have never dreamed of such luxuries.
我哋不斷噉將期望設得越來越高 事實上,我哋重寫咗貧窮嘅定義 諗下宜家嘅美國 喺貧窮線以下嘅大多數人 都仲擁有水、電、馬桶、冰箱 電視、手機 甚至冷氣同車 上個世紀最富有嘅強盜、貴族、國王 都冇呢啲奢侈品
Underpinning much of this is technology, and of late, exponentially growing technologies. My good friend Ray Kurzweil showed that any tool that becomes an information technology jumps on this curve, on Moore's Law, and experiences price performance doubling every 12 to 24 months. That's why the cellphone in your pocket is literally a million times cheaper and a thousand times faster than a supercomputer of the '70s. Now look at this curve. This is Moore's Law over the last hundred years. I want you to notice two things from this curve. Number one, how smooth it is -- through good time and bad time, war time and peace time, recession, depression and boom time. This is the result of faster computers being used to build faster computers. It doesn't slow for any of our grand challenges. And also, even though it's plotted on a log curve on the left, it's curving upwards. The rate at which the technology is getting faster is itself getting faster.
令呢種現象出現 全靠以前嘅科技 以至最近嘅 幾何級數發展嘅科技 我嘅好朋友 Ray Kurzweil 畫咗一幅圖 說明只要物件變成資訊科技工具 就會按著摩爾定律嘅曲線 每一至兩年 性能就會翻倍 咁就係點解你哋衫袋裡邊嘅手機 比起 70 年代嘅超級電腦 仲要平咗一百萬倍 同快咗一千倍 睇下呢個曲線 呢個係一百幾年前嘅摩爾定律 留意下呢條曲線上嘅兩樣嘢 第一,條曲綫好平穩 唔受時期嘅好壞,或者戰爭同和平 經濟衰退、低迷或者繁榮嘅影響 個結果就係速度快嘅電腦 用來造更快嘅電腦 電腦冇因爲任何我哋面對嘅問題而慢咗 雖然曲線圖採用咗 對數曲線 佢嘅方向係向上嘅 即係,科技進步嘅比率 越來越快
And on this curve, riding on Moore's Law, are a set of extraordinarily powerful technologies available to all of us. Cloud computing, what my friends at Autodesk call infinite computing; sensors and networks; robotics; 3D printing, which is the ability to democratize and distribute personalized production around the planet; synthetic biology; fuels, vaccines and foods; digital medicine; nanomaterials; and A.I. I mean, how many of you saw the winning of Jeopardy by IBM's Watson? I mean, that was epic. In fact, I scoured the headlines looking for the best headline in a newspaper I could. And I love this: "Watson Vanquishes Human Opponents." Jeopardy's not an easy game. It's about the nuance of human language. And imagine if you would A.I.'s like this on the cloud available to every person with a cellphone.
喺呢條摩爾定律曲線上邊 係一連串可供我哋利用嘅 強大而先進嘅科技 我喺 Autodesk 嘅朋友 叫雲端運算做無限運算 感應器。網路。自動化設備 3D 印刷有可能喺全球將產品 大眾化同人性化 人造生物學 燃料、疫苗同食物 數位醫學。納米材料。人工智慧 在座有幾多人睇到 IBM 沃森 喺《危險邊緣》贏通街? 嗰次個節目真係好經典 我摷勻好多報紙 想揾個最好嘅頭條 我好鐘意呢個:《沃森擊敗人類對手》 《危險邊緣》呢個比賽好難 字眼上差小小,答案就唔一樣 想像一下 呢種雲端嘅人工智慧 喺人人嘅手機度都有
Four years ago here at TED, Ray Kurzweil and I started a new university called Singularity University. And we teach our students all of these technologies, and particularly how they can be used to solve humanity's grand challenges. And every year we ask them to start a company or a product or a service that can affect positively the lives of a billion people within a decade. Think about that, the fact that, literally, a group of students can touch the lives of a billion people today. 30 years ago that would have sounded ludicrous. Today we can point at dozens of companies that have done just that.
四年前喺 TED Ray Kurzweil 同我創辦咗 一間叫「奇點大學」嘅新大學 我哋向學生傳授呢啲全部嘅科技 尤其係點樣用嚟 解決人類面對嘅巨大挑戰 每一年, 我哋要求佢哋 開新公司、開發新產品或者新服務 希望喺十年內 幫助到十億人 試諗下,呢班學生真係 可以幫到十億人 呢種諗法喺 30 年前係幾荒唐 宜家我哋可以講出邊間公司 喺度做緊呢件事
When I think about creating abundance, it's not about creating a life of luxury for everybody on this planet; it's about creating a life of possibility. It is about taking that which was scarce and making it abundant. You see, scarcity is contextual, and technology is a resource-liberating force. Let me give you an example.
對我來講,創造富足嘅社會 唔係話要世界上 每個人都享受奢華生活 而係要創造出生活嘅可能性 係要使我哋缺乏嘅嘢 變得豐富 每個人缺乏嘅嘢唔同 而科技係一個解放資源嘅力量 我舉個例
So this is a story of Napoleon III in the mid-1800s. He's the dude on the left. He invited over to dinner the king of Siam. All of Napoleon's troops were fed with silver utensils, Napoleon himself with gold utensils. But the King of Siam, he was fed with aluminum utensils. You see, aluminum was the most valuable metal on the planet, worth more than gold and platinum. It's the reason that the tip of the Washington Monument is made of aluminum. You see, even though aluminum is 8.3 percent of the Earth by mass, it doesn't come as a pure metal. It's all bound by oxygen and silicates. But then the technology of electrolysis came along and literally made aluminum so cheap that we use it with throw-away mentality.
呢個係十八世紀中葉 關於拿破崙三世嘅故事 佢就係左邊嗰個人 佢邀請暹羅國王 共進晚餐 拿破崙嘅成個軍隊 用銀製餐具 拿破崙自己就用金製餐具 但係暹羅國王 用嘅竟然係鋁製餐具 原來 鋁曾經係世上最貴嘅金屬 甚至貴過黃金同埋白金 咁就係點解華盛頓紀念碑嘅頂端 係由鋁所製成 雖然鋁嘅礦量 佔地球質量嘅 8.3% 但係金屬鋁好罕見 鋁多數喺礦物裡邊 佢多數同氧或者矽酸鹽 反應生成化合物 有咗電解科技之後 提煉鋁就變得好平 平到用完就掟
So let's project this analogy going forward. We think about energy scarcity. Ladies and gentlemen, we are on a planet that is bathed with 5,000 times more energy than we use in a year. 16 terawatts of energy hits the Earth's surface every 88 minutes. It's not about being scarce, it's about accessibility. And there's good news here. For the first time, this year the cost of solar-generated electricity is 50 percent that of diesel-generated electricity in India -- 8.8 rupees versus 17 rupees. The cost of solar dropped 50 percent last year. Last month, MIT put out a study showing that by the end of this decade, in the sunny parts of the United States, solar electricity will be six cents a kilowatt hour compared to 15 cents as a national average.
如此類推 我哋試諗下能源缺乏 各位 我哋生活緊嘅地球,係一個 擁有我哋一年用嘅能源 5,000 倍嘅星球 每 88 分鐘就有 16 兆瓦嘅能源 來到地球嘅表面 所以問題唔係缺乏 而係獲取能源嘅途徑 有個好消息 今年係印度有史以來第一次 太陽能發電嘅花費 係柴油發電嘅一半 8.8 盧比對 17 盧比 舊年太陽能發電花費就降咗一半 上個月麻省理工學院發表咗一項研究 話喺 2020 年之前 美國陽光充足嘅地區 太陽能電嘅平均價格 會降到 6 仙美金一度 宜家平均一度要 1 毫 5 仙美元
And if we have abundant energy, we also have abundant water. Now we talk about water wars. Do you remember when Carl Sagan turned the Voyager spacecraft back towards the Earth, in 1990 after it just passed Saturn? He took a famous photo. What was it called? "A Pale Blue Dot." Because we live on a water planet. We live on a planet 70 percent covered by water. Yes, 97.5 percent is saltwater, two percent is ice, and we fight over a half a percent of the water on this planet, but here too there is hope. And there is technology coming online, not 10, 20 years from now, right now. There's nanotechnology coming on, nanomaterials.
我哋有咗充足嘅能源 我哋就會有充足嘅水源 我哋來講下水源嘅戰爭 你記唔記得 1990 年 無人探測船航海家 1 號 飛過土星之後 卡爾.薩根叫探測船擰轉身 同太陽系影張全家福 嗰張相好出名,叫咩? 《蒼藍小點》 我哋住喺一個水星球 一個 70% 嘅表面俾水覆蓋嘅星球 其中 97.5% 係鹹水 2% 係冰 我哋喺度爭地球上 0.5% 嘅水 天無絕人之路 有一個新科技出現咗 唔係喺十、二十年後 係宜家 納米科技同納米材料誕生咗
And the conversation I had with Dean Kamen this morning, one of the great DIY innovators, I'd like to share with you -- he gave me permission to do so -- his technology called Slingshot that many of you may have heard of, it is the size of a small dorm room refrigerator. It's able to generate a thousand liters of clean drinking water a day out of any source -- saltwater, polluted water, latrine -- at less than two cents a liter. The chairman of Coca-Cola has just agreed to do a major test of hundreds of units of this in the developing world. And if that pans out, which I have every confidence it will, Coca-Cola will deploy this globally to 206 countries around the planet. This is the kind of innovation, empowered by this technology, that exists today.
我今朝同 Dean Kamen 傾偈 佢係一個偉大嘅 DIY 發明家 佢畀我同你哋分享 佢嘅發明︰「Slingshot」 可能好多人都聽過 佢係一個宿舍用嘅冰箱噉大 佢可以 每日淨化一千升嘅水 咩水都可以淨化 鹹水、污染水、廁所污水 而且成本低於一升 2 仙美元 可口可樂董事長啱啱批准咗 一個大規模嘅實驗 喺發展中國家試用幾百套呢種設備 如果成功—— 當然我有信心佢會成功 可口可樂公司就會 將呢個計畫推廣至 全球 206 個國家 呢種創新就係 現代科技帶來嘅
And we've seen this in cellphones. My goodness, we're going to hit 70 percent penetration of cellphones in the developing world by the end of 2013. Think about it, that a Masai warrior on a cellphone in the middle of Kenya has better mobile comm than President Reagan did 25 years ago. And if they're on a smartphone on Google, they've got access to more knowledge and information than President Clinton did 15 years ago. They're living in a world of information and communication abundance that no one could have ever predicted. Better than that, the things that you and I spent tens and hundreds of thousands of dollars for -- GPS, HD video and still images, libraries of books and music, medical diagnostic technology -- are now literally dematerializing and demonetizing into your cellphone.
手機就係表表者 天啊,喺 2013 之前 手機喺開發中國家嘅使用率 就嚟達到 70% 試諗下 一個肯尼亞馬賽族戰士用嘅手機 比 25 年前雷根總統在位時 用嘅通訊產品仲要好 如果佢哋用谷歌嘅智能手機 佢哋就比 15 年前克林頓總統在位時 接收到更多嘅知識同資訊 佢哋生活喺一個 資訊同通訊都充足嘅世界 冇人原本預料到嘅 更好嘅係 以前花費 好幾十萬美金嘅嘢: GPS、高畫質影片、靜止圖像 書庫、音樂庫 醫療診斷科技 宜家都漸漸融入 你哋嘅手機度
Probably the best part of it is what's coming down the pike in health. Last month, I had the pleasure of announcing with Qualcomm Foundation something called the $10 million Qualcomm Tricorder X Prize. We're challenging teams around the world to basically combine these technologies into a mobile device that you can speak to, because it's got A.I., you can cough on it, you can do a finger blood prick. And to win, it needs to be able to diagnose you better than a team of board-certified doctors. So literally, imagine this device in the middle of the developing world where there are no doctors, 25 percent of the disease burden and 1.3 percent of the health care workers. When this device sequences an RNA or DNA virus that it doesn't recognize, it calls the CDC and prevents the pandemic from happening in the first place.
而最好嘅係 醫療成本會下降 上個月我好榮幸同高通基金會一齊宣布 高通 Tricorder X 大獎 我哋向全球嘅參賽者提出挑戰 要求將呢啲全部功能 融合入一個移動設備度 佢要有人工智慧,令你可以同佢講嘢 你可以對佢咳或者做手指血液採樣 要贏得呢個獎,個儀器嘅診斷技術 要好過一隊摞牌營業嘅醫師 想像一下呢個儀器 可以被用喺缺乏醫生嘅發展中國家 發展中國家有全世界 25% 嘅病症 但係只有全世界 1.3% 嘅醫務人員 當呢個儀器遇到一個 RNA 或者 DNA 排列 係佢未見過嘅 佢就會通報美國疾病防治中心 進而防止疾病從一個地區蔓延開去
But here, here is the biggest force for bringing about a world of abundance. I call it the rising billion. So the white lines here are population. We just passed the seven billion mark on Earth. And by the way, the biggest protection against a population explosion is making the world educated and healthy. In 2010, we had just short of two billion people online, connected. By 2020, that's going from two billion to five billion Internet users. Three billion new minds who have never been heard from before are connecting to the global conversation. What will these people want? What will they consume? What will they desire? And rather than having economic shutdown, we're about to have the biggest economic injection ever. These people represent tens of trillions of dollars injected into the global economy. And they will get healthier by using the Tricorder, and they'll become better educated by using the Khan Academy, and by literally being able to use 3D printing and infinite computing [become] more productive than ever before.
至於為世界帶來富足嘅 最強大力量 我叫佢做「上升十億」 白線代表人口 我哋啱啱超過咗七十億大關 順便提一下 防止人口爆炸嘅最大力量 就是教育 同埋醫療 喺 2010 年 全球有唔到 20 億人口 上網 到 2020 年 網民從 20 億 躍進到 50 億 新加入嘅 30 億人口 之前從來冇上過網 但佢哋終於能夠同個世界對話 呢啲人想要咩? 佢哋會消費咩?佢哋渴望咩? 經濟唔會再蕭條 而係要迎接有史以來最繁榮嘅經濟 呢啲人意味著 有幾十兆美元 投入全球嘅經濟市場 佢哋就會藉由 Tricorder 診斷儀器變得更健康 同藉由可漢學院接受好嘅教育 佢哋可以藉使用 3D 打印技術同無限運算功能 變得更有生產力
So what could three billion rising, healthy, educated, productive members of humanity bring to us? How about a set of voices that have never been heard from before. What about giving the oppressed, wherever they might be, the voice to be heard and the voice to act for the first time ever? What will these three billion people bring? What about contributions we can't even predict? The one thing I've learned at the X Prize is that small teams driven by their passion with a clear focus can do extraordinary things, things that large corporations and governments could only do in the past.
所以呢 30 億 健康、教育良好同高生産力嘅人口 能帶畀我哋咩? 之前講到被忽視嘅聲音 世界各地 被壓迫嘅聲音 宜家終於會被聽到 同受重視 呢 30 億人能帶來咩? 佢哋帶來嘅貢獻可能冇人可以估算 我喺 X 大獎學到嘅一件事 就係即使係一個細團隊 當佢嘅目標明確同俾熱情所驅動 都可以做一番大事業 完成喺以前 只有大企業同政府先至作到嘅事
Let me share and close with a story that really got me excited. There is a program that some of you might have heard of. It's a game called Foldit. It came out of the University of Washington in Seattle. And this is a game where individuals can actually take a sequence of amino acids and figure out how the protein is going to fold. And how it folds dictates its structure and its functionality. And it's very important for research in medicine. And up until now, it's been a supercomputer problem.
最尾,我想分享一個故事 佢真係好激勵我 應該有人聽過呢個項目 有個遊戲叫 Foldit 佢係由西雅圖華盛頓大學開發嘅 佢係一個遊戲 玩家可以決定胺基酸嘅排列順序 進而計算出蛋白質跟住會點折疊 蛋白質嘅折疊決定咗佢嘅結構同埋功能 呢樣對藥物嘅研究好重要 目前為止,呢個問題得超級電腦先做到
And this game has been played by university professors and so forth. And it's literally, hundreds of thousands of people came online and started playing it. And it showed that, in fact, today, the human pattern recognition machinery is better at folding proteins than the best computers. And when these individuals went and looked at who was the best protein folder in the world, it wasn't an MIT professor, it wasn't a CalTech student, it was a person from England, from Manchester, a woman who, during the day, was an executive assistant at a rehab clinic and, at night, was the world's best protein folder.
呢個遊戲 最初俾大學教授之類嘅人玩 宜家有幾十萬人 上網玩緊 事實顯示 人類對模式嘅識別 好過宜家最好嘅電腦 呢啲玩家都想知道 世界上最識折疊蛋白質嘅人係邊個 佢唔係麻省理工學院嘅一個教授 唔係加州理工學院嘅一個學生 佢係一個住喺英國曼徹斯特嘅女人 喺日頭 佢係一個復健診所嘅行政助理 到咗晚黑,她就係 世界上最會折疊蛋白質嘅人
Ladies and gentlemen, what gives me tremendous confidence in the future is the fact that we are now more empowered as individuals to take on the grand challenges of this planet. We have the tools with this exponential technology. We have the passion of the DIY innovator. We have the capital of the techno-philanthropist. And we have three billion new minds coming online to work with us to solve the grand challenges, to do that which we must do. We are living into extraordinary decades ahead.
各位 係咩嘢令我 對未來非常有信心? 係因為我哋宜家活得更自主更有能力 可以應對各種巨大嘅挑戰 我哋嘅科技幾何級數發展 我哋有 DIY 發明家嘅熱情 我哋亦都有科技慈善家嘅資本 仲有 30 億第一次接觸互聯網嘅人 嚟幫我哋解決艱鉅嘅難題 做我哋應該做嘅嘢 未來嘅黃金年代等緊我哋
Thank you.
多謝
(Applause)
(掌聲)