So, let me add to the complexity of the situation we find ourselves in. At the same time that we're solving for climate change, we're going to be building cities for three billion people. That's a doubling of the urban environment. If we don't get that right, I'm not sure all the climate solutions in the world will save mankind, because so much depends on how we shape our cities: not just environmental impacts, but our social well-being, our economic vitality, our sense of community and connectedness.
让我们来整理一下思绪, 看看我们目前所处的复杂情况。 在我们解决气候变化问题的同时, 我们还要建造 供三十亿人口居住的城市。 这将是我们目前城市规模的两倍。 这件事如果我们没做好, 我不确定全球的气候变化解决方案 能否拯救人类, 因为这在很大程度上 取决于我们如何建造我们的城市: 不仅是对环境的冲击, 还有我们的社会福利, 经济活力, 我们对于社区和交流的感受。
Fundamentally, the way we shape cities is a manifestation of the kind of humanity we bring to bear. And so getting it right is, I think, the order of the day. And to a certain degree, getting it right can help us solve climate change, because in the end, it's our behavior that seems to be driving the problem. The problem isn't free-floating, and it isn't just ExxonMobil and oil companies. It's us; how we live. How we live.
从根本上说,我们建造城市的方式 体现了我们的人性。 因此我认为,把这件事情做好, 是我们的当务之急。 从某种意义上来说, 做好这件事有助于解决气候变化问题, 因为归根结底, 是我们的行为造成了气候问题。 气候问题并不是孤立的, 不仅仅因为埃克森美孚 或者其他石油公司。 原因在于我们,我们的生活方式。 我们如何生活。
There's a villain in this story. It's called sprawl, and I'll be upfront about that. But it's not just the kind of sprawl you think of, or many people think of, as low-density development out at the periphery of the metropolitan area. Actually, I think sprawl can happen anywhere, at any density. The key attribute is that it isolates people. It segregates people into economic enclaves and land-use enclaves. It separates them from nature. It doesn't allow the cross-fertilization, the interaction, that make cities great places and that make society thrive. So the antidote to sprawl is really what we all need to be thinking about, especially when we're taking on this massive construction project.
这个故事里有一个坏人。 它的名字叫城市蔓生, 我会实话实说。 但它并不是你们大家, 或者许多人想象的那样, 好像只会在低密度区域, 或都会区外围的郊区发生。 实际上,我觉得这样杂乱无序的拓展 在任何地方,任何密度下,都有可能发生。 它的主要特色就是 隔离了人与人之间的距离。 它造成经济上的贫富差距, 并形成了土地利用上的单一化。 将他们同自然隔离开。 它不允许异业的结合, 限制了人际的交流与沟通, 而这些恰恰是使城市变得伟大 让社会繁荣发展的因素。 所以我们要好好思考 城市蔓生的解药, 尤其是当我们 要建设如此大的项目的时候。
So let me take you through one exercise. We developed the model for the state of California so they could get on with reducing carbon emissions. We did a whole series of scenarios for how the state could grow, and this is just one overly simplified one. We mixed different development prototypes and said they're going to carry us through the year 2050, 10 million new crew in our state of California. And one was sprawl. It's just more of the same: shopping malls, subdivisions, office parks. The other one was dominated by, not everybody moving to the city, but just compact development, what we used to think of as streetcar suburbs, walkable neighborhoods, low-rise, but integrated, mixed-used environments. And the results are astounding. They're astounding not just for the scale of the difference of this one shift in our city-making habit but also because each one represents a special interest group, a special interest group that used to advocate for their concerns one at a time. They did not see the, what I call, "co-benefits" of urban form that allows them to join with others.
让我来举一个例子。 我们为加州设计了一个模型, 来降低碳排放量。 我们做了一系列的 都市发展情境的模拟, 经过我们高度简化, 与溷合了不同的发展原型, 假定持续直到2050年, 加州将有一千万的新成员加入, 其中一种情境就是蔓生。 跟过去的情况差不多: 购物中心、土地分割、 办公园区。 另外一种情况, 并不是所有人都涌向城市, 而是密集的发展, 比如将郊区的有轨电车搬到市区、 方便散步的社区, 建筑物的层高有限, 但整体密集发展、综合使用的环境。 最后的结果令人震惊。 这样的改变不仅与过去的 城市设计习惯有很大的不同, 也与特殊利益群体的认知不同,因为 每种类型都代表了一个特殊利益群体, 这些群体过去只关注自己眼前的利益, 而无长远的计划。 他们看不到城市形态带来的好处, 我称之为“共赢利益”, 可以让他们彼此融合。
So, land consumption: environmentalists are really concerned about this, so are farmers; there's a whole range of people, and, of course, neighborhood groups that want open space nearby. The sprawl version of California almost doubles the urban physical footprint.
比如,土地消耗问题: 环保主义者很关心, 还有农民, 还有很多人 社区团体想开放临近的空间。 加州的蔓生版本 其都市实体的碳足迹 几乎是(图上智能成长版本)的两倍。
Greenhouse gas: tremendous savings, because in California, our biggest carbon emission comes from cars, and cities that don't depend on cars as much obviously create huge savings.
(智能成长版本的)温室气体: 排放大幅下降, 因为在加州, 碳排放的最大来源是汽车, 如果城市不再像以往一样依赖汽车, 当然会降低排放。
Vehicle miles traveled: that's what I was just talking about. Just reducing the average 10,000 miles per household per year, from somewhere in the mid-26,000 per household, has a huge impact not just on air quality and carbon but also on the household pocketbook. It's very expensive to drive that much, and as we've seen, the middle class is struggling to hold on.
汽车的行驶里程, 就是我刚刚提到的。 每户每年平均下降了一万英里, 有些地方甚至达到 每户两万六千多英里, 这不仅大幅改善 空气质量,降低碳排放, 对节省家庭开支也大有好处。 因为开车真的非常贵, 我们能看到, 中产阶级都有点无力承担。
Health care: we were talking about how do you fix it once we broke it -- clean the air. Why not just stop polluting? Why not just use our feet and bikes more? And that's a function of the kinds of cities that we shape.
关于医疗,我们以前谈论的是, 一旦出了问题我们该如何补救, 改善空气质量。 那为什么不停止污染它呢? 为什么不多走路和骑自行车呢? 这也是我们要打造的城市 所拥有的功能。
Household costs: 2008 was a mark in time, not of just the financial industry running amok. It was that we were trying to sell too many of the wrong kind of housing: large lot, single family, distant, too expensive for the average middle-class family to afford and, quite frankly, not a good fit to their lifestyle anymore. But in order to move inventory, you can discount the financing and get it sold. I think that's a lot of what happened. Reducing cost by 10,000 dollars -- remember, in California the median is 50,000 -- this is a big element. That's just cars and utility costs. So the affordable housing advocates, who often sit off in their silos separate from the environmentalists, separate from the politicians, everybody fighting with everyone, now begin to see common cause, and I think the common cause is what really brings about the change.
家庭开支。 2008年是历史性的一年, 不仅金融业失去控制。 我们当时也销售了 太多不合宜的住宅建筑: 大地块,独门独户,遥远的距离, 一般中产阶级根本负担不起, 更明显的一点是, 不再符合他们的生活方式。 但为了摆脱债务, 你可以把它卖掉,减少按揭。 我想这种情况很常见。 减少1万美元的支出—— 不要忘记,加州 中产阶级的收入是5万—— 这是笔很大的支出。 那才只计算车辆跟设备的费用而已。 那些提倡可负担住房的人, 常常只坐在自己家中, 不跟环境学家或政治领袖 交换意见。 造成大家谁也不让谁, 总算开始注意到共同的原因了, 但我认为认知到这些共同的原因, 才能带来真正的变革。
Los Angeles, as a result of these efforts, has now decided to transform itself into a more transit-oriented environment. As a matter of fact, since '08, they've voted in 400 billion dollars of bonds for transit and zero dollars for new highways. What a transformation: LA becomes a city of walkers and transit, not a city of cars.
洛杉矶,由于这些努力的结果, 决定将自己转型为 一个以公共交通导向的环境。 实际上,从2008年开始, 洛杉矶就投票表决将4000亿美元的 债券拿来建设公共交通, 但建设高速公路的预算是零。 转变是巨大的: 洛杉矶成为了一座散步 和公共交通之城, 而不是汽车城。
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How does it happen? You take the least desirable land, the strip, you add where there's space, transit and then you infill mixed-use development, you satisfy new housing demands and you make the existing neighborhoods all around it more complex, more interesting, more walkable.
怎么做到的呢? 把那些人们最不喜欢的车道 放上公交系统, 然后加上多功能的开发区, 满足人们新的住房需求, 建设令人兴奋的社区, 更加综合性, 更加有趣,更适合步行。
Here's another kind of sprawl: China, high-density sprawl, what you think of as an oxymoron, but the same problems, everything isolated in superblocks, and of course this amazing smog that was just spoken to. Twelve percent of GDP in China now is spent on the health impacts of that. The history, of course, of Chinese cities is robust. It's like any other place. Community was all about small, local shops and local services and walking, interacting with your neighbors. It may sound utopian, but it's not. It's actually what people really want. The new superblocks -- these are blocks that would have 5,000 units in them, and they're gated as well, because nobody knows anybody else. And of course, there isn't even a sidewalk, no ground floor shops -- a very sterile environment. I found this one case here in one of the superblocks where people had illicitly set up shops in their garages so that they could have that kind of local service economy. The desire of people to get it right is there. We just have to get the planners on board and the politicians.
还有另一种蔓生方式, 在中国,高密度的, 你们也许会觉得这有点矛盾, 但其实是一样的问题。 每个人都被高楼大厦孤立, 当然还有刚才提到过的雾霾。 中国GDP总量的12% 被用在处理雾霾带来的健康问题。 毫无疑问,中国城市的 发展非常迅猛。 跟其他任何地方一样。 所谓社区,应该有小店铺, 本地化的服务,可以散步, 与邻居互动。 听起来不切实际, 但并非遥不可及。 这正是人们真正想要的。 新的超级小区—— 可能有5000户人家住在里面, 大家都门户紧闭,互不相识。 当然,也没有 散步步道,没有底层商铺, 非常无趣的环境。 我在其中一个超级小区中 发现了一件事, 人们在自家车库私自开了商店, 这样他们就能获得本地化服务。 人们想让都市更美好的 需求就摆在那儿。 我们只是需要让规划者 和政治家意识到。
All right. Some technical planning stuff. Chongqing is a city of 30 million people. It's almost as big as California. This is a small growth area. They wanted us to test the alternative to sprawl in several cities across China. This is for four-and-a-half million people. What the takeaway from this image is, every one of those circles is a walking radius around a transit station -- massive investment in metro and BRT, and a distribution that allows everybody to work within walking distance of that.
好的,下面是一些 规划技术层面的内容。 重庆是一座拥有 3000万人口的城市。 几乎跟加州一样多。 这是一个小的开发区。 他们想让我们 在中国的一些城市中 测试城市蔓生的替代方案。 这里将会有450万人口。 这幅图里最重要的一点是, 每一个圆圈代表的 是步行的区域, 圆心位置是公共交通系统, 他们投入大量资金 建设地铁和快速公交, 并且合理分布, 每一个人都可以步行上班。
The red area, this is a blow-up. All of a sudden, our principles called for green space preserving the important ecological features. And then those other streets in there are auto-free streets. So instead of bulldozing, leveling the site and building right up to the river, this green edge was something that really wasn't normative in China until these set of practices began experimentation there. The urban fabric, small blocks, maybe 500 families per block. They know each other. The street perimeter has shops so there's local destinations. And the streets themselves become smaller, because there are more of them. Very simple, straightforward urban design.
红色的区域,就更厉害了。 一夜之间,所有的设计原则 全转向诉求绿色空间 以及保护生态特征。 其它的街道都是禁止车辆通行的。 他们并没有推平岸边的树木, 或把房子建到河边, 而是将以往并不常见的 绿化带观念带进中国, 从我们在这片区域 做实验性的行动就开始进行了。 这里的城市结构,是小区块的, 每个区块可能有500户人家。 他们相互认识。 街道两旁有商店, 居民有地方可去。 街道变小了, 因为数量增加了。 非常简单, 直接的城市设计理念。
Now, here you have something I dearly love. Think of the logic. If only a third of the people have cars, why do we give 100 percent of our streets to cars? What if we gave 70 percent of the streets to car-free, to everybody else, so that the transit could move well for them, so that they could walk, so they could bike?
还有一点我非常喜欢。 想象一下。 如果只有三分之一的人有车, 那我们为什么要 把街道的使用权全部给车呢? 如果我们把70%的街道 让给步行街,让给行人, 这样公共交通就能更好地提供服务, 他们可以选择步行,选择骑车。
Why not have --
为什么不……
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geographic equity in our circulation system? And quite frankly, cities would function better. No matter what they do, no matter how many ring roads they build in Beijing, they just can't overcome complete gridlock. So this is an auto-free street, mixed use along the edge. It has transit running down the middle. I'm happy to make that transit autonomous vehicles, but maybe I'll have a chance to talk about that later.
建立一个土地使用平等的 交通系统? 显而易见,城市会运行得更好。 在北京,无论采取什么措施, 无论修多少环线, 他们都无法解决堵车问题。 这是一条步行街, 两边是综合利用区。 中间有公交系统。 我很乐意看到公交系统 使用无人驾驶车辆, 但也许过一会儿 我们再来讨论这个问题。
So there are seven principles that have now been adopted by the highest levels in the Chinese government, and they're moving to implement them. And they're simple, and they are globally, I think, universal principles. One is to preserve the natural environment, the history and the critical agriculture.
目前有七项原则, 已经被中国政府最高层所接受, 他们准备要付诸实施了。 这些原则很简单, 我觉得对其他国家也适用。 第一条就是保护自然环境,保护历史, 保护关键性的农业。
Second is mix. Mixed use is popular, but when I say mixed, I mean mixed incomes, mixed age groups as well as mixed-land use.
第二条是溷合发展。 溷合利用很流行,我所指的溷合, 是指不同收入,不同年龄的群体, 还有对于土地的综合利用。
Walk. There's no great city that you don't enjoy walking in. You don't go there. The places you go on vacation are places you can walk. Why not make it everywhere?
步行。 所有伟大的城市都欢迎你漫步其中。 否则你就不会去那里。 你去的度假地 肯定是可以散步的地方。 那为什么不把所有的地方 都变成这样呢?
Bike is the most efficient means of transportation we know. China has now adopted policies that put six meters of bike lane on every street. They're serious about getting back to their biking history.
自行车是最高效的交通方式。 中国已经采取政策, 要在每条街道 设立六米宽的自行车道。 他们真的想回归骑自行车的年代。
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Complicated planner-ese here: connect. It's a street network that allows many routes instead of singular routes and provides many kinds of streets instead of just one.
下面是比较复杂的规划了: 连通。 这是一个街道网络, 允许有多种路线组合, 而不仅仅是单一路线, 也可以建造多种多样的街道。
Ride. We have to invest more in transit. There's no silver bullet. Autonomous vehicles are not going to solve this for us. As a matter of fact, they're going to generate more traffic, more VMT, than the alternative.
汽车 公共交通系统需要更多投资。 没有捷径可走。 无人驾驶汽车无法帮我们解决问题。 实际上,跟传统车相比, 无人车会产生更多交通流量, 更多车辆行驶里程。
And focus. We have a hierarchy of the city based on transit rather than the old armature of freeways. It's a big paradigm shift, but those two things have to get reconnected in ways that really shape the structure of the city. So I'm very hopeful. In California, the United States, China -- these changes are well accepted.
另外还有,集中性。 我们在城市的公交系统上 是分层级的, 这跟老式的以高速公路 为枢纽的老城市相比 是非常大的一种改变, 但是这两种形式必须 重新连接起来, 来重新构建城市的结构。 我对此充满希望。 在加州,在美国,在中国, 这些变化都被广泛接受。
I'm hopeful for two reasons. One is, most people get it. They understand intrinsically what a great city can and should be. The second is that the kind of analysis we can bring to bear now allows people to connect the dots, allows people to shape political coalitions that didn't exist in the past. That allows them to bring into being the kinds of communities we all need.
我充满希望有两个原因。 第一,大部分人都懂。 他们打从心底认同, 一个伟大的城市可以, 而且也必须要有的样貌; 第二个原因是这样的分析结果 可以发挥作用, 它将人们连接起来, 让人们建立起 前所未有的政治联盟。 进而让他们建立起 我们梦寐以求的社区。
Thank you.
谢谢大家。
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Chris Anderson: So, OK: autonomous driving, self-driving cars. A lot of people here are very excited about them. What are your concerns or issues about them?
克里斯·安德森(CA): 好的,自动驾驶,无人驾驶汽车。 在座有很多人都对此非常兴奋。 你为什么会对此表示担忧呢?
Peter Calthorpe: Well, I think there's almost too much hype here. First is, everybody says we're going to get rid of a lot of cars. What they don't say is you're going to get a lot more vehicle miles. You're going to get a lot more cars moving on streets. There will be more congestion.
皮特·卡尔索普(PC):因为我觉得 这裡头有太多炒作了。 首先,每个人都说 我们会减少许多车辆。 但是他们不敢说 这反而会增加许多行车里程。 因为会有更多的车行驶在路上。 会更加拥堵。
CA: Because they're so appealing -- you can drive while reading or sleeping.
CA:因为它们是如此方便, 你可以在阅读和睡觉的时候行驶。
PC: Well, a couple of reasons. One is, if they're privately owned, people will travel greater distances. It'll be a new lease on life to sprawl. If you can work on your way to work, you can live in more remote locations. It'll revitalize sprawl in a way that I'm deeply frightened. Taxis: about 50 percent of the surveys say that people won't share them. If they don't share them, you can end up with a 90 percent increase in vehicle miles traveled. If you share them, you're still at around a 30 percent increase in VMT.
PC:有很多原因。 其中一点是,如果车辆是私人的, 大家会行驶更远的距离。 会让城市蔓生重新开始。 如果你可以在上班途中工作, 你就可以选择住在更远的地方。 这会使城市蔓生 以一种我非常害怕的方式复苏。 出租车, 有50%的调查结果显示, 人们不愿意拼车。 如果不拼车, 可能会增加90%的车辆行驶里程。 如果拼车, 也会增加大约30%。
CA: Sharing them, meaning having multiple people riding at once in some sort of intelligent ride-sharing?
CA:拼车,就是说几个人 通过某种智能共享的方式 同时乘坐一辆车?
PC: Yeah, so the Uber share without a steering wheel. The reality is, the efficiency of vehicles -- you can do it with or without a steering wheel, it doesn't matter. They claim they're the only ones that are going to be efficient electric, but that's not true. But the real bottom line is that walking, biking and transit are the way cities and communities thrive. And putting people in their private bubbles, whether they have a steering wheel or not, is the wrong direction. And quite frankly, the image of an AV on its way to McDonald's to pick up a pack without its owner, just being sent off on these kind of random errands is really frightening to me.
PC:是的,就是无人驾驶的优步。 但实际情况是,车辆的效率 跟有没有方向盘并没有太大关系。 他们宣称自己将是 唯一能让电动车变得高效的, 但这并不是真的。 说到底,步行,自行车和公共交通 才能让城市和社区繁荣发展。 让人们藏在自己私密的小空间里, 无论有没有方向盘, 都是错误的发展方向。 坦白来说, 我一想象,一辆无人驾驶车 去麦当劳取餐, 它的主人并不在车里, 它被派出去做各种差事, 就让我觉得害怕。
CA: Well, thank you for that, and I have to say, the images you showed of those mixed-use streets were really inspiring, really beautiful.
CA:好的,谢谢你的分享, 我不得不说,你给我们展示的 综合利用的街道, 非常有启发性,非常美妙。
PC: Thank you. CA: Thank you for your work.
PC:谢谢你。 CA:谢谢你所做的工作。
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