This is a story about capitalism. It's a system I love because of the successes and opportunities it's afforded me and millions of others.
这是个关于资本主义的故事。 我喜欢这个体系, 因为它提供给每个人成功和机遇。
I started in my 20s trading commodities, cotton in particular, in the pits, and if there was ever a free market free-for-all, this was it, where men wearing ties but acting like gladiators fought literally and physically for a profit.
我在20多岁时开始在市场上做货物交易, 尤其是棉花, 如果曾经有一个对所有人都 免费的自由市场,那就是, 在那里穿着得体的人为了利益, 像角斗士一样竭尽所能。
Fortunately, I was good enough that by the time I was 30, I was able to move into the upstairs world of money management, where I spent the next three decades as a global macro trader. And over that time, I've seen a lot of crazy things in the markets, and I've traded a lot of crazy manias. And unfortunately, I'm sad to report that right now we might be in the grips of one of the most disastrous, certainly of my career, and one consistent takeaway is manias never end well.
幸运的是,30岁的时候表现很好, 我步入了资金管理的上层社会, 我花了接下来的30年 做一名环球宏观交易商。 在那段时间里,我看到了 市场里的许多疯狂的事情, 我做了许多狂热的投机。 不幸的是, 我很难过地说 目前我可能正处于 我职业生涯最灾难性的 一个阶段的关键时刻, 一个永恒的教训就是 投机狂热不会善终。
Now, over the past 50 years, we as a society have come to view our companies and corporations in a very narrow, almost monomaniacal fashion with regard to how we value them, and we have put so much emphasis on profits, on short-term quarterly earnings and share prices, at the exclusion of all else. It's like we've ripped the humanity out of our companies. Now, we don't do that -- conveniently reduce something to a set of numbers that you can play with like Lego toys -- we don't do that in our individual life. We don't treat somebody or value them based on their monthly income or their credit score, but we have this double standard when it comes to the way that we value our businesses, and you know what? It's threatening the very underpinnings of our society. And here's how you'll see.
在过去的50年里, 关于如何评价我们的公司和企业 我们这个社会以 非常狭隘,近乎偏执的方式 看待它们, 我们对利润, 对短期季度盈利和股价强调太多了, 无视其他一切。 仿佛我们的公司已经没有了人性。 现在我们不这么做了-- 适当地减少一些东西, 减少到你可以像玩乐高玩具一样参与-- 正如我们在各自的生活中 并不是这么做的。 我们没有基于人们的 收入和信用积分, 来对待或评价他们, 但是我们用这种双重标准, 来评价我们的公司, 你知道吗? 它威胁到我们的社会基础。 这些就是你们看到的。
This chart is corporate profit margins going back 40 years as a percentage of revenues, and you can see that we're at a 40-year high of 12.5 percent. Now, hooray if you're a shareholder, but if you're the other side of that, and you're the average American worker, then you can see it's not such a good thing. ["U.S. Share of Income Going to Labor vs. CEO-to-Worker Compensation Ratio"]
这个图表是40年来的企业利润率, 以收入的百分比形式, 你可以看到我们处于 40年来得最高点,利润高达12.5%。 如果你是股东,万岁! 但是如果你是另一边, 普通的美国工人, 你会发现这并不是什么好事情。 ["美国工人劳动收入份额 vs. CEO 对工人的补偿比例"]
Now, higher profit margins do not increase societal wealth. What they actually do is they exacerbate income inequality, and that's not a good thing. But intuitively, that makes sense, right? Because if the top 10 percent of American families own 90 percent of the stocks, as they take a greater share of corporate profits, then there's less wealth left for the rest of society.
更高的利润率没有提高社会财富。 仅仅是加剧了收入的不平等, 这不是个好事情。 但是直觉上,这是有道理的,对吧? 因为如果最富的10%的美国家庭 拥有90%的股份, 他们拿走了公司利润的大部分, 然后很少的部分留给了社会其他人。
Again, income inequality is not a good thing. This next chart, made by The Equality Trust, shows 21 countries from Austria to Japan to New Zealand. On the horizontal axis is income inequality. The further to the right you go, the greater the income inequality. On the vertical axis are nine social and health metrics. The more you go up that, the worse the problems are, and those metrics include life expectancy, teenage pregnancy, literacy, social mobility, just to name a few. Now, those of you in the audience who are Americans may wonder, well, where does the United States rank? Where does it lie on that chart? And guess what? We're literally off the chart. Yes, that's us, with the greatest income inequality and the greatest social problems, according to those metrics.
再一次,收入的不平等不是个好事情。 这是下一个图表,由Equality Trust制作, 展示了21个国家, 从澳大利亚到日本到新西兰。 横轴代表收入不平等程度。 越往右,收入越不平等。 竖轴代表9个社会和健康的度量。 越往上,问题越严重, 这些度量包括寿命, 未成年人怀孕,读写能力, 社会流动性,等等。 在座的美国人可能会想知道, 美国排在什么位置? 美国在图表里什么地方? 知道吗? 我们实际上在图表之外。 对的,这就是我们, 拥有最大的收入不平等 以及根据这些度量标准显示, 拥有最严重的社会问题。
Now, here's a macro forecast that's easy to make, and that's, that gap between the wealthiest and the poorest, it will get closed. History always does it. It typically happens in one of three ways: either through revolution, higher taxes, or wars. None of those are on my bucket list. (Laughter)
这是很容易做的一个宏观预测, 这就是最富有与最贫穷之间的鸿沟, 将被拉近。 历史总是这么做。 它以典型的3种方式之一发生: 革命,更高的赋税或是战争。 没有一个在我的遗愿清单上。 (笑声)
Now, there's another way to do it, and that's by increasing justness in corporate behavior, but the way that we're operating right now, that would require a tremendous change in behavior, and like an addict trying to kick a habit, the first step is to acknowledge that you have a problem. And let me just say, this profits mania that we're on is so deeply entrenched that we don't even realize how we're harming society. Here's a small but startling example of exactly how we're doing that: this chart shows corporate giving as a percentage of profits, not revenues, over the last 30 years. Juxtapose that to the earlier chart of corporate profit margins, and I ask you, does that feel right?
有另一种方法实现它, 那就是通过提高企业行为的公正性, 但是我们目前运作的方式, 需要在行为上做出巨大改变, 就像成瘾之后尝试戒掉, 第一步就是承认你出了问题。 让我来说,我们追逐利润的狂热 已经如此根深蒂固, 我们甚至没有觉察到 我们如何损害着社会。 这是一个关于我们所作所为的 小的却令人吃惊地例子: 这个图表显示在过去30年里企业捐献 的利润百分数,不是收入百分数。 将它与先前的企业 利润率图表并列, 我问你,这个对吗?
In all fairness, when I started writing this, I thought, "Oh wow, what does my company, what does Tudor do?" And I realized we give one percent of corporate profits to charity every year. And I'm supposed to be a philanthropist. When I realized that, I literally wanted to throw up. But the point is, this mania is so deeply entrenched that well-intentioned people like myself don't even realize that we're part of it.
平心而论,当我开始 写这个,我想, “”哇,我的公司做了什么, Tudor做了什么?“ 我发现我们每年只将企业利润的1% 捐给慈善机构。 我被称为慈善家。 当我发现这个事实的时候, 我简直想吐。 但关键是,这种 狂热如此根深蒂固, 以致怀有像我一样好意的人们甚至 没有觉察我们是其中一部分。
Now, we're not going to change corporate behavior by simply increasing corporate philanthropy or charitable contributions. And oh, by the way, we've since quadrupled that, but -- (Applause) -- Please. But we can do it by driving more just behavior. And one way to do it is actually trusting the system that got us here in the first place, and that's the free market system. About a year ago, some friends of mine and I started a not-for-profit called Just Capital. Its mission is very simple: to help companies and corporations learn how to operate in a more just fashion by using the public's input to define exactly what the criteria are for just corporate behavior. Now, right now, there's no widely accepted standard that a company or corporation can follow, and that's where Just Capital comes in, because beginning this year and every year we'll be conducting a nationwide survey of a representative sample of 20,000 Americans to find out exactly what they think are the criteria for justness in corporate behavior. Now, this is a model that's going to start in the United States but can be expanded anywhere around the globe, and maybe we'll find out that the most important thing for the public is that we create living wage jobs, or make healthy products, or help, not harm, the environment. At Just Capital, we don't know, and it's not for us to decide. We're but messengers, but we have 100 percent confidence and faith in the American public to get it right. So we'll release the findings this September for the first time, and then next year, we'll poll again, and we'll take the additive step this time of ranking the 1,000 largest U.S. companies from number one to number 1,000 and everything in between. We're calling it the Just Index, and remember, we're an independent not-for-profit with no bias, and we will be giving the American public a voice. And maybe over time, we'll find out that as people come to know which companies are the most just, human and economic resources will be driven towards them, and they'll become the most prosperous and help our country be the most prosperous.
仅仅通过提高企业慈善或慈善捐赠 不会改变企业行为。 噢,顺便说一下,我们已经把 捐赠变成原来的4倍了, 但是--(掌声)-谢谢。 但是我们能够通过运转 更公正的行为来完成。 其中一种方法实际就是相信 这个最初带领我们走到现在的体系, 就是这个自由市场体系。 大约一年前,我的我的一些朋友 成立了一个叫做 Just Capital的公益公司。 任务很简单: 帮助公司和企业 学习如何以一个更公正的 模式运作,通过使用公共参与 来准确定义公正企业行为的准则。 目前,没有广泛接受的 公司或企业能够遵守的标准, 这就是为什么Just Capital 成立了, 因为从今年开始, 每年我们将做全国性的调查 选用具有代表性的2万美国人的样本, 来发现他们认为的 企业行为公正的准则。 这是将在美国开始的模型, 但是可以扩展到全球任何地方, 或许我们能找出 对公众最重要的事, 也许就是我们创造足以谋生的 工作岗位或者生产健康的产品, 或是保护而不是伤害环境。 在 Just Capital,我们不知道, 也不是我们能决定的。 我们仅仅是信使, 但是我们有100%的信心, 相信美国大众 能做对。 所以我们将在9月份第一次发布这些发现, 然后明年,我们再做民意测验, 这次我们将更近一步, 排出美国最大的1000个公司, 从第1到1000,以及这之间的。 我们称之为公正指数, 记住我们是一个独立的 公益的没有偏见的公司, 我们将给美国大众发声。 或许一段时间后,我们 会发现人们开始知道 哪些公司最公正, 人力和经济资源会奔它们而去, 它们会成为最繁荣的公司, 并帮我们的国家成为最繁荣的国家。
Now, capitalism has been responsible for every major innovation that's made this world a more inspiring and wonderful place to live in. Capitalism has to be based on justice. It has to be, and now more than ever, with economic divisions growing wider every day. It's estimated that 47 percent of American workers can be displaced in the next 20 years. I'm not against progress. I want the driverless car and the jet pack just like everyone else. But I'm pleading for recognition that with increased wealth and profits has to come greater corporate social responsibility.
资本主义有责任担负起每一个大变革, 使我们的世界成为更 激励人心和美好的居住地。 资本主义必须以公正为根基。 必须这样,如今更甚从前, 随着经济部门的逐日壮大。 据估计,大约47%的美国工人 在下一个20年里被取代。 我不反对发展。 我像其他人一样想要 无人驾驶的车和飞行器。 但是我恳求一个认知, 就是财富和利润的增长 应该伴随更大的企业社会责任。
"If justice is removed," said Adam Smith, the father of capitalism, "the great, the immense fabric of human society must in a moment crumble into atoms."
”如果公正消失了,“ 资本主义之父 Adam Smith 说, ”巨大的人类社会组织一定瞬间 崩溃成碎片“。
Now, when I was young, and there was a problem, my mama used to always sigh and shake her head and say, "Have mercy, have mercy." Now's not the time for us, for the rest of us to show them mercy. The time is now for us to show them fairness, and we can do that, you and I, by starting where we work, in the businesses that we operate in. And when we put justness on par with profits, we'll get the most wonderful thing in all the world. We'll take back our humanity.
当我年轻的时候,有一个问题, 我的母亲过去常常叹息 并且摇着她的头说, ”要有怜悯之心“ 现在不是我们怜悯其他人的时候。 而是我们向他们展示公正的时候, 我们能够做到,你和我, 从我们工作的公司开始。 当我们把公正看得和利润一样重要的时候, 我们就会得到世上最美好的东西。 我们会赎回我们的人性。
Thank you.
谢谢
(Applause)
(掌声)