This is a story about capitalism. It's a system I love because of the successes and opportunities it's afforded me and millions of others.
Ovo je priča o kapitalizmu. To je sistem koji volim zbog uspeha i prilika koji je pružio meni i milionima drugih.
I started in my 20s trading commodities, cotton in particular, in the pits, and if there was ever a free market free-for-all, this was it, where men wearing ties but acting like gladiators fought literally and physically for a profit.
Počeo sam u svojim 20-im da trgujem robom, pamukom naročito, na dnu, a ako je ikada postojalo slobodno tržište koje je slobodno za sve, to je bilo to, gde su se muškarci koji su nosili kravate, ali se ponašali kao gladijatori borili bukvalno i fizički za zaradu.
Fortunately, I was good enough that by the time I was 30, I was able to move into the upstairs world of money management, where I spent the next three decades as a global macro trader. And over that time, I've seen a lot of crazy things in the markets, and I've traded a lot of crazy manias. And unfortunately, I'm sad to report that right now we might be in the grips of one of the most disastrous, certainly of my career, and one consistent takeaway is manias never end well.
Srećom, išlo mi je dovoljno dobro da sam do svoje 30. godine mogao da se popnem u svet upravljanja novcem gde sam proveo naredne tri decenije kao globalni makro trgovac. Za to vreme sam video mnogo ludih stvari na tržištima i trgovao sam kroz mnogo ludih manija. Nažalost, sa žaljenjem izveštavam da smo možda u kandžama jedne od najrazornijih zasigurno u mojoj karijeri, a dosledno dokazana pouka je da se manije nikada ne završe dobro.
Now, over the past 50 years, we as a society have come to view our companies and corporations in a very narrow, almost monomaniacal fashion with regard to how we value them, and we have put so much emphasis on profits, on short-term quarterly earnings and share prices, at the exclusion of all else. It's like we've ripped the humanity out of our companies. Now, we don't do that -- conveniently reduce something to a set of numbers that you can play with like Lego toys -- we don't do that in our individual life. We don't treat somebody or value them based on their monthly income or their credit score, but we have this double standard when it comes to the way that we value our businesses, and you know what? It's threatening the very underpinnings of our society. And here's how you'll see.
Tokom proteklih 50 godina, kao društvo, došli smo do sagledavanja naših kompanija i korporacija na vrlo ograničen, gotovo monomanijakalni način u pogledu načina na koji ih vrednujemo, a toliko smo stavili naglaska na profit, na kratkoročne kvartalne zarade i cene akcija, da smo isključili sve ostalo. Kao da smo istrgli čovečnost iz naših kompanija. Mi to ne radimo - nećemo nešto prikladno svesti na skup brojeva sa kojima se možemo igrati poput Lego kockica - to ne radimo u našem ličnom životu. Ne tretiramo osobu niti je cenimo na osnovu njenog mesečnog prihoda ili kreditnih poena, ali imamo dvostruki standard kada je u pitanju način na koji vrednujemo naše firme, a znate šta? To preti samim temeljima našeg društva. Evo kako ćete to uvideti.
This chart is corporate profit margins going back 40 years as a percentage of revenues, and you can see that we're at a 40-year high of 12.5 percent. Now, hooray if you're a shareholder, but if you're the other side of that, and you're the average American worker, then you can see it's not such a good thing. ["U.S. Share of Income Going to Labor vs. CEO-to-Worker Compensation Ratio"]
Na ovom grafikonu su prikazane korporativne profitne marže 40 godina unazad kao procenat prihoda i možete videti da se nalazimo na 40-godišnjem vrhuncu od 12,5 procenata. Ura ako ste vlasnik akcija, ali ako se nalazite na drugoj strani, ako ste prosečan američki radnik, onda možete videti da to nije tako dobra stvar. [„Udeo prihoda koji ide radnicima u SAD u odnosu na naknade rukovodiocima“]
Now, higher profit margins do not increase societal wealth. What they actually do is they exacerbate income inequality, and that's not a good thing. But intuitively, that makes sense, right? Because if the top 10 percent of American families own 90 percent of the stocks, as they take a greater share of corporate profits, then there's less wealth left for the rest of society.
Veće profitne marže ne povećavaju društveno bogatstvo. One zapravo pogoršavaju nejednakost prihoda, a to nije dobra stvar. Ipak, intuitivno, to ima smisla, zar ne? Ako 10 procenata američkih porodica na vrhu poseduje 90 posto akcija, dok one uzimaju veći deo korporativnih profita, onda manje bogatstva ostaje za ostatak društva.
Again, income inequality is not a good thing. This next chart, made by The Equality Trust, shows 21 countries from Austria to Japan to New Zealand. On the horizontal axis is income inequality. The further to the right you go, the greater the income inequality. On the vertical axis are nine social and health metrics. The more you go up that, the worse the problems are, and those metrics include life expectancy, teenage pregnancy, literacy, social mobility, just to name a few. Now, those of you in the audience who are Americans may wonder, well, where does the United States rank? Where does it lie on that chart? And guess what? We're literally off the chart. Yes, that's us, with the greatest income inequality and the greatest social problems, according to those metrics.
Opet, nejednakost prihoda nije dobra stvar. Sledeći grafikon koji je napravio Fond ravnopravnosti pokazuje 21 zemlju, od Austrije preko Japana do Novog Zelanda. Na horizontalnoj osi je nejednakost u visini dohotka. Što dalje idete desno, veća je nejednakost u visini dohotka. Na vertikalnoj osi je dato devet socijalnih i zdravstvenih merila. Što više idete gore, gori su problemi, a ta merila obuhvataju očekivani životni vek, trudnoću u tinejdžerskom dobu, pismenost, društvenu pokretljivost, da navedemo samo neke. Oni među vama u publici koji su Amerikanci se možda pitaju na kom rangu se nalaze Sjedinjene Države. Gde leže na ovom grafikonu? Pogodite šta? Bukvalno smo van grafikona. Da, to smo mi, sa najvećom nejednakošću u visini dohotka i najvećim društvenim problemima prema tim merilima.
Now, here's a macro forecast that's easy to make, and that's, that gap between the wealthiest and the poorest, it will get closed. History always does it. It typically happens in one of three ways: either through revolution, higher taxes, or wars. None of those are on my bucket list. (Laughter)
Evo makro prognoze koju je lako sačiniti, a to je da će taj jaz između najbogatijih i najsiromašnijih biti zatvoren. Istorija to uvek čini. To se tipično dogodi na jedan od tri načina: kroz revoluciju, veće poreze ili ratove. Ništa od toga nije na mojoj listi želja. (Smeh)
Now, there's another way to do it, and that's by increasing justness in corporate behavior, but the way that we're operating right now, that would require a tremendous change in behavior, and like an addict trying to kick a habit, the first step is to acknowledge that you have a problem. And let me just say, this profits mania that we're on is so deeply entrenched that we don't even realize how we're harming society. Here's a small but startling example of exactly how we're doing that: this chart shows corporate giving as a percentage of profits, not revenues, over the last 30 years. Juxtapose that to the earlier chart of corporate profit margins, and I ask you, does that feel right?
Postoji još jedan način da se to uradi, a to je povećanjem pravednosti u korporativnom ponašanju, ali imajući u vidu način na koji sada poslujemo, to bi zahtevalo ogromne promene u ponašanju, i kao zavisnik koji pokušava da se otarasi navike, prvi korak je priznati da imate problem. I dozvolite mi da kažem, ova profitna manija u kojoj se nalazimo je toliko duboko ukorenjena da čak ni ne shvatamo kako škodimo društvu. Evo malog, ali iznenađujućeg primera o tome kako tačno to radimo. Ovaj grafikon pokazuje korporativna davanja kao procenat profita, a ne prihoda, tokom poslednjih 30 godina. Uporedite to sa prethodnim grafikonom korporativnih profitnih marži i pitam vas, da li se to čini ispravno?
In all fairness, when I started writing this, I thought, "Oh wow, what does my company, what does Tudor do?" And I realized we give one percent of corporate profits to charity every year. And I'm supposed to be a philanthropist. When I realized that, I literally wanted to throw up. But the point is, this mania is so deeply entrenched that well-intentioned people like myself don't even realize that we're part of it.
Iskreno, kada sam počeo da pišem ovo, pomislio sam: „O, vau, šta moja kompanija čini, šta Tjudor čini?“ i shvatio sam da dajemo jedan procenat korporativnih profita u dobrotvorne svrhe svake godine. A ja bi trebalo da budem filantrop. Kada sam to shvatio, bukvalno sam hteo da povratim. Poenta je da je ova manija toliko duboko ukorenjena da dobronamerni ljudi poput mene čak ni ne shvataju da su deo toga.
Now, we're not going to change corporate behavior by simply increasing corporate philanthropy or charitable contributions. And oh, by the way, we've since quadrupled that, but -- (Applause) -- Please. But we can do it by driving more just behavior. And one way to do it is actually trusting the system that got us here in the first place, and that's the free market system. About a year ago, some friends of mine and I started a not-for-profit called Just Capital. Its mission is very simple: to help companies and corporations learn how to operate in a more just fashion by using the public's input to define exactly what the criteria are for just corporate behavior. Now, right now, there's no widely accepted standard that a company or corporation can follow, and that's where Just Capital comes in, because beginning this year and every year we'll be conducting a nationwide survey of a representative sample of 20,000 Americans to find out exactly what they think are the criteria for justness in corporate behavior. Now, this is a model that's going to start in the United States but can be expanded anywhere around the globe, and maybe we'll find out that the most important thing for the public is that we create living wage jobs, or make healthy products, or help, not harm, the environment. At Just Capital, we don't know, and it's not for us to decide. We're but messengers, but we have 100 percent confidence and faith in the American public to get it right. So we'll release the findings this September for the first time, and then next year, we'll poll again, and we'll take the additive step this time of ranking the 1,000 largest U.S. companies from number one to number 1,000 and everything in between. We're calling it the Just Index, and remember, we're an independent not-for-profit with no bias, and we will be giving the American public a voice. And maybe over time, we'll find out that as people come to know which companies are the most just, human and economic resources will be driven towards them, and they'll become the most prosperous and help our country be the most prosperous.
E, sad, nećemo izmeniti korporativno ponašanje jednostavnim povećanjem filantropije u korporacijama ili dobrotvornih priloga. Uzgred, od tada smo to učetvorostručili, ali - (Aplauz) - molim vas. Možemo to učiniti podsticanjem pravednog ponašanja. Jedan način za to je verovati sistemu koji nas je ovde prvobitno doveo, a to je sistem slobodnog tržišta. Pre oko godinu dana, neki moji prijatelji i ja započeli smo neprofitnu organizaciju pod imenom Pravedni kapital. Njena misija je vrlo jednostavna: da pomogne kompanijama i korporacijama da nauče kako da posluju na pravedniji način koristeći podatke dobijene od javnosti da bi definisali koji su tačno kriterijumi za pravedno korporativno ponašanje. U ovom trenutku ne postoji široko prihvaćeni standard koji kompanija ili korporacija može slediti, a upravo tu nastupa Pravedni kapital, jer počevši od ove godine i svake naredne ćemo sprovoditi nacionalno istraživanje na reprezentativnom uzorku od 20 000 Amerikanaca da bismo otkrili tačno šta misle da su kriterijumi pravednosti u korporativnom ponašanju. To je model koji će otpočeti u Sjedinjenim Državama, ali se može proširiti bilo gde na planeti, i možda ćemo otkriti da je najvažnija stvar za javnost da stvorimo poslove sa minimalnom satnicom ili da napravimo zdrave proizvode, ili da pomognemo životnoj sredini umesto da joj nanosimo štetu. U Pravednom kapitalu, mi to ne znamo, i nije na nama da odlučimo. Mi samo prenosimo poruku, ali imamo 100 posto poverenja i vere u američku javnost da će se to razumeti kako treba. Objavićemo zaključke prvi put ovog septembra, a zatim ćemo sledeće godine ponoviti anketu i tada ćemo načiniti dodatne korake rangirajući 1 000 najvećih kompanija u SAD od broja jedan do broja 1 000 i sve između. To nazivamo Pravedni indeks, i upamtite, mi smo nezavisna neprofitna organizacija bez predrasuda i davaćemo glas američkoj javnosti. Možda ćemo vremenom otkriti da, kako ljudi budu dolazili do saznanja koje kompanije su najpravednije, ljudski i ekonomski resursi će biti usmereni ka njima, postaće najuspešnije i pomoći će našoj zemlji da bude najuspešnija.
Now, capitalism has been responsible for every major innovation that's made this world a more inspiring and wonderful place to live in. Capitalism has to be based on justice. It has to be, and now more than ever, with economic divisions growing wider every day. It's estimated that 47 percent of American workers can be displaced in the next 20 years. I'm not against progress. I want the driverless car and the jet pack just like everyone else. But I'm pleading for recognition that with increased wealth and profits has to come greater corporate social responsibility.
Kapitalizam je odgovoran za svaku veću inovaciju koja je učinila ovaj svet inspirativnijim i divnijim mestom za život. Kapitalizam mora biti zasnovan na pravdi. Mora da bude, a sada više nego ikada, sa ekonomskim podelama koje svakodnevno postaju sve veće. Procenjuje se da se 47 posto američkih radnika može ukloniti u narednih 20 godina. Nisam protiv napretka. Želim auto bez vozača i raketni pojas baš kao i svi ostali, ali zalažem se za prepoznavanje da uz povećano bogatstvo i profite mora da ide veća korporativna društvena odgovornost.
"If justice is removed," said Adam Smith, the father of capitalism, "the great, the immense fabric of human society must in a moment crumble into atoms."
„Ako se pravda ukloni“, rekao je Adam Smit, otac kapitalizma, „veliko, neizmerno tkivo ljudskog društva se mora u trenutku raspasti na atome.“
Now, when I was young, and there was a problem, my mama used to always sigh and shake her head and say, "Have mercy, have mercy." Now's not the time for us, for the rest of us to show them mercy. The time is now for us to show them fairness, and we can do that, you and I, by starting where we work, in the businesses that we operate in. And when we put justness on par with profits, we'll get the most wonderful thing in all the world. We'll take back our humanity.
Kada sam bio mlad i postojao je neki problem, moja mama bi uvek uzdahnula, odmahnula glavom i rekla: „Imaj milosti, imaj milosti.“ Sada nije vreme da im mi, ostatak nas, pokažemo milost. Vreme je da im pokažemo ispravnost, a mi to možemo, vi i ja, počevši od mesta na kome radimo, od firmi u kojima poslujemo, a kada stavimo pravednost rame uz rame sa profitom, dobićemo najdivniju stvar na svetu - povratićemo našu čovečnost.
Thank you.
Hvala vam.
(Applause)
(Aplauz)