This is a story about capitalism. It's a system I love because of the successes and opportunities it's afforded me and millions of others.
Ovo je priča o kapitalizmu. To je sustav koji volim radi uspjeha i mogućnosti koje je priuštio meni i milijunima drugih.
I started in my 20s trading commodities, cotton in particular, in the pits, and if there was ever a free market free-for-all, this was it, where men wearing ties but acting like gladiators fought literally and physically for a profit.
Počeo sam u svojim 20-tima trgujući robom, posebno pamukom, u rupama, i ako je ikad bilo slobodnog tržišta otvorenog za sve, to je bilo to, gdje su se ljudi sa kravatama ali i ponašanjem gladijatora borili doslovno i fizički za dobit.
Fortunately, I was good enough that by the time I was 30, I was able to move into the upstairs world of money management, where I spent the next three decades as a global macro trader. And over that time, I've seen a lot of crazy things in the markets, and I've traded a lot of crazy manias. And unfortunately, I'm sad to report that right now we might be in the grips of one of the most disastrous, certainly of my career, and one consistent takeaway is manias never end well.
Srećom, bio sam dovoljno dobar da do vremena kad sam imao 30, bilo mi je moguće popeti se do svijeta upravljanja novcem, gdje sam proveo slijedeća tri desetljeća kao globalni makro trgovac. I tijekom tog vremena, vidio sam puno ludih stvari na tržištima, i trgovao sam kroz puno ludih manija. I nažalost, žao mi je što moram reći kako smo upravo sada u stisku jedne od najrazornijih, sigurno tijekom moje karijere, a jedna od dosljednih poslijedica je kako manije nikad ne završe dobro.
Now, over the past 50 years, we as a society have come to view our companies and corporations in a very narrow, almost monomaniacal fashion with regard to how we value them, and we have put so much emphasis on profits, on short-term quarterly earnings and share prices, at the exclusion of all else. It's like we've ripped the humanity out of our companies. Now, we don't do that -- conveniently reduce something to a set of numbers that you can play with like Lego toys -- we don't do that in our individual life. We don't treat somebody or value them based on their monthly income or their credit score, but we have this double standard when it comes to the way that we value our businesses, and you know what? It's threatening the very underpinnings of our society. And here's how you'll see.
Sad, tijekom zadnjih 50 godina, mi smo kao društvo počeli gledati na naše kompanije i korporacije na vrlo uzak, gotovo bolesno usredotočen način s obzirom na to kako ih vrednujemo, i stavili smo toliki naglasak na dobit, na kratkoročne kvartalne zarade i cijene dionica, do isključenja svega ostalog. Kao da smo otkinuli čovječnost iz naših kompanija. Sad, to ne činimo -- prikladno svesti nešto na skup brojeva kojima se možete igrati poput lego kockica -- ne činimo to u našem osobnom životu. Ne postupamo s nekim ili ih vrednujemo temeljem njihovih mjesečnih primanja ili kreditne ocjene, ali imamo to dvostruko mjerilo kada dođemo do načina na koji vrednujemo naše poslove. I znate što? To prijeti samim temeljima našeg društva. A evo kako ćete to i vidjeti.
This chart is corporate profit margins going back 40 years as a percentage of revenues, and you can see that we're at a 40-year high of 12.5 percent. Now, hooray if you're a shareholder, but if you're the other side of that, and you're the average American worker, then you can see it's not such a good thing. ["U.S. Share of Income Going to Labor vs. CEO-to-Worker Compensation Ratio"]
Ovaj dijagram su korporativne zarade unazad 40 godina kao postotak prihoda, i možete vidjeti da smo na 40-godišnjem vrhu od 12,5 posto. Sad, hura ako ste dioničar, ali ako ste druga strana toga, i ako ste prosječan američki radnik, onda možete vidjeti kako to nije tako dobra stvar. ["U.S. udio prihoda koji ide radništvu vs. omjer kompenzacije uprave i radnika "]
Now, higher profit margins do not increase societal wealth. What they actually do is they exacerbate income inequality, and that's not a good thing. But intuitively, that makes sense, right? Because if the top 10 percent of American families own 90 percent of the stocks, as they take a greater share of corporate profits, then there's less wealth left for the rest of society.
Sad, više zarade ne povećavaju društveno bogatstvo. Ono što zapravo čine je pogoršavaju nejednakost dohodaka, a to nije dobra stvar. Ali intuitivno, to ima smisla, jel tako? Jer ako gornjih 10% američkih obitelji posjeduje 90% dionica, dok oni uzimaju veći udio korporativne dobiti, onda ostaje manje bogatstva za ostatak društva.
Again, income inequality is not a good thing. This next chart, made by The Equality Trust, shows 21 countries from Austria to Japan to New Zealand. On the horizontal axis is income inequality. The further to the right you go, the greater the income inequality. On the vertical axis are nine social and health metrics. The more you go up that, the worse the problems are, and those metrics include life expectancy, teenage pregnancy, literacy, social mobility, just to name a few. Now, those of you in the audience who are Americans may wonder, well, where does the United States rank? Where does it lie on that chart? And guess what? We're literally off the chart. Yes, that's us, with the greatest income inequality and the greatest social problems, according to those metrics.
Ponovo, nejednakost dohotka nije dobra stvar. Slijedeći dijagram, napravljen od Equality Trusta, pokazuje 21 zemlju od Austrije preko Japana do Novog Zelanda. Na vodoravnoj osi je nejednakost dohotka. Što idete dalje desno, veća nejednakost dohotka. Na okomitoj osi je devet društvenih i zdravstvenih metrika Što idete više, problemi su gori, a te metrike uključuju očekivani životni vijek, maloljetničke trudnoće, pismenost, društvenu pokretljivost, samo da navedemo nekoliko. Sad, oni od vas u publici koji su Amerikanci se mogu zapitati, dobro, kako stoje Sjedinjene države? Gdje one leže na ovoj slici? I pogodite što? Doslovno smo izvan slike. Da, to smo mi, sa najvećom nejednakosti dohotka i najvećim društvenim problemima, prema ovim metrikama.
Now, here's a macro forecast that's easy to make, and that's, that gap between the wealthiest and the poorest, it will get closed. History always does it. It typically happens in one of three ways: either through revolution, higher taxes, or wars. None of those are on my bucket list. (Laughter)
Sad, evo makro prognoze koju je lako napraviti, a to je, jaz između najbogatijih i najsiromašnijih, biti će zatvoren. Povijest to uvijek čini. Tipično se dešava na jedan od tri načina: ili kroz preokret, više poreze, ili ratove. Nijedno od toga nije na mom popisu želja. (Smijeh)
Now, there's another way to do it, and that's by increasing justness in corporate behavior, but the way that we're operating right now, that would require a tremendous change in behavior, and like an addict trying to kick a habit, the first step is to acknowledge that you have a problem. And let me just say, this profits mania that we're on is so deeply entrenched that we don't even realize how we're harming society. Here's a small but startling example of exactly how we're doing that: this chart shows corporate giving as a percentage of profits, not revenues, over the last 30 years. Juxtapose that to the earlier chart of corporate profit margins, and I ask you, does that feel right?
Sad, postoji drugi način kako to postići, a to je povećavanjem pravednosti u korporativnom ponašanju, ali obzirom na način na koji radimo sada, to bi zahtjevalo ogromnu promjenu ponašanja, i poput ovisnika koji pokušava odbaciti naviku, Prvi je korak priznati kako imate problem. A dajte samo da kažem, ta manija dobiti koju imamo je tako duboko ukopana da čak niti ne shvaćamo kako štetimo društvu. Ovdje je maleni ali zapanjujući primjer točno kako to radimo: Ovaj dijagram pokazuje korporativna davanja kao postotak dobiti, ne prihoda, tijekom zadnjih 30 godina. Postavite ga uz raniji dijagram korporativnih zarada, pa vas pitam, čini li se to ispravnim?
In all fairness, when I started writing this, I thought, "Oh wow, what does my company, what does Tudor do?" And I realized we give one percent of corporate profits to charity every year. And I'm supposed to be a philanthropist. When I realized that, I literally wanted to throw up. But the point is, this mania is so deeply entrenched that well-intentioned people like myself don't even realize that we're part of it.
U svem poštenju, kad sam počeo pisati ovo, mislio sam, "O vau, što moja kompanija, što Tudor čini?" I shvatio sam kako dajemo jedan posto korporativne dobiti u dobrotvorne svrhe svake godine. A ja bih trebao biti čovjekoljubac. Kad sam to shvatio, doslovno sam htio povratiti. Ali stvar je, ova je manija toliko duboko ukopana da dobronamjerni ljudi poput mene čak i ne shvaćaju da smo njenim dijelom.
Now, we're not going to change corporate behavior by simply increasing corporate philanthropy or charitable contributions. And oh, by the way, we've since quadrupled that, but -- (Applause) -- Please. But we can do it by driving more just behavior. And one way to do it is actually trusting the system that got us here in the first place, and that's the free market system. About a year ago, some friends of mine and I started a not-for-profit called Just Capital. Its mission is very simple: to help companies and corporations learn how to operate in a more just fashion by using the public's input to define exactly what the criteria are for just corporate behavior. Now, right now, there's no widely accepted standard that a company or corporation can follow, and that's where Just Capital comes in, because beginning this year and every year we'll be conducting a nationwide survey of a representative sample of 20,000 Americans to find out exactly what they think are the criteria for justness in corporate behavior. Now, this is a model that's going to start in the United States but can be expanded anywhere around the globe, and maybe we'll find out that the most important thing for the public is that we create living wage jobs, or make healthy products, or help, not harm, the environment. At Just Capital, we don't know, and it's not for us to decide. We're but messengers, but we have 100 percent confidence and faith in the American public to get it right. So we'll release the findings this September for the first time, and then next year, we'll poll again, and we'll take the additive step this time of ranking the 1,000 largest U.S. companies from number one to number 1,000 and everything in between. We're calling it the Just Index, and remember, we're an independent not-for-profit with no bias, and we will be giving the American public a voice. And maybe over time, we'll find out that as people come to know which companies are the most just, human and economic resources will be driven towards them, and they'll become the most prosperous and help our country be the most prosperous.
Sad, nećemo promijeniti korporativno ponašanje jednostavnim povećanjem korporativnog čovjekoljublja ili dobrotvornih priloga. A da, usput, to smo učetverostručili od tada, ali -- (aplauz) -- Molim vas. Ali možemo potičući pravednije ponašanje. A jedan je način kako to učiniti je zbilja vjerovati sustavu koji nas je uopće doveo do ovdje, a to je sustav slobodnog tržišta. Prije oko godinu dana, neki moji prijatelji i ja smo pokrenuli neprofitnu udrugu nazvanu Pravedan kapital. Njeno je poslanje jako jednostavno: pomoći kompanijama i korporacijama naučiti kako da djeluju na pravedniji način koristeći javno mnijenje kako bi točno definirali koji su kriteriji za pravedno korporativno ponašanje. Sad, upravo sada ne postoje široko prihvaćen standard koji korporacija ili kompanija može slijediti, i to je mjesto gdje ulazi Pravedan kapital, jer počevši od ove godine ćemo svaku godinu vršiti nacionalno mjerenje reprezentativnog uzorka od 20.000 Amerikanaca kako bi otkrili što točno oni misle da su kriteriji za pravednost u korporativnom ponašanju. Sad, to je model koji će započeti u Sjedinjenim državama ali može biti proširen bilo gdje na svijetu, i možda ćemo otkriti kako je najvažnija stvar za javnost da stvaramo poslove s plaćom dovoljnom za život, ili da izrađujemo zdrave proizvode, ili pomažemo, ne štetimo, okolišu. U Pravednom kapitalu, ne znamo, a niti nije do nas da odlučimo. Mi smo tek glasnici. Ali imamo 100% povjerenje i vjeru u američku javnost da će to shvatiti ispravno. Tako da ćemo nalaze objaviti ovaj rujan po prvi put, i potom slijedeće godine, anketirat ćemo ponovno, a taj ćemo put napraviti i dodatni korak rangiranja 1.000 najvećih nacionalnih kompanija od broja jedan do broja 1.000 i sve između. Nazivamo to kazalom pravednosti, i zapamtite, mi smo neovisna neprofitna udruga bez naginjanja, a davat ćemo američkoj javnosti glas. I možda tijekom vremena, otkrijemo da kako ljudi počinju znati koje su kompanije najpravednije, ljudski i gospodarski resursi će biti usmjereni prema njima, te će postati najuspješnije i pomoći našoj zemlji biti najuspješnija.
Now, capitalism has been responsible for every major innovation that's made this world a more inspiring and wonderful place to live in. Capitalism has to be based on justice. It has to be, and now more than ever, with economic divisions growing wider every day. It's estimated that 47 percent of American workers can be displaced in the next 20 years. I'm not against progress. I want the driverless car and the jet pack just like everyone else. But I'm pleading for recognition that with increased wealth and profits has to come greater corporate social responsibility.
Sad, kapitalizam je bio odgovoran za svaku značajnu inovaciju koja je ovaj svijet učinila uzdižućim i prekrasnim mjestom za život. Kapitalizam mora biti temeljen na pravdi. Mora biti, i to sada više nego ikad, s ekonomskim podjelama koje rastu šire iz dana u dan. Procjenjuje se kako 47 posto američkih radnika može biti istisnuto u slijedećih 20 godina. Nisam protiv napretka. Želim auto bez vozača i jet pack baš kao i svatko drugi. Ali molim za prepoznavanje kako sa povećanim bogatstvom i dobiti mora doći veća korporativna društvena odgovornost.
"If justice is removed," said Adam Smith, the father of capitalism, "the great, the immense fabric of human society must in a moment crumble into atoms."
"Ako je pravda odstranjena," rekao je Adam Smith, otac kapitalizma, "Veličanstveno, neizmjerno tkanje ljudskog društva mora se u trenutku raspasti od atoma."
Now, when I was young, and there was a problem, my mama used to always sigh and shake her head and say, "Have mercy, have mercy." Now's not the time for us, for the rest of us to show them mercy. The time is now for us to show them fairness, and we can do that, you and I, by starting where we work, in the businesses that we operate in. And when we put justness on par with profits, we'll get the most wonderful thing in all the world. We'll take back our humanity.
Sad, kad sam bio mlad, i postojao bi problem, moja bi mama uvijek uzdahnula i tresla glavom i govorila: "Imaj milosti, imaj milosti." Sad nije vrijeme za nas, za ostatak nas da im pokažemo milost. Vrijeme je sad za nas da im pokažemo poštenje, a to možemo učiniti, vi i ja, počevši od svog radnog mjesta, od poslova u kojima djelujemo. A kad stavimo pravdu na istu razinu sa dobiti, dobit ćemo najčudesniju stvar u cijelom svijetu, uzet ćemo nazad našu čovječnost.
Thank you.
Hvala vam.
(Applause)
(Aplauz)