Many of you could ask the question, you know, why is a flying car, or maybe more accurately, a roadable aircraft, possible at this time? A number of years ago, Mr. Ford predicted that flying cars of some form would be available. Now, 60 years later, I'm here to tell you why it's possible. When I was about five years old, not very much -- about a year after Mr. Ford made his predictions, I was living in a rural part of Canada, on the side of a mountain in a very isolated area. Getting to school, for a kid that was actually pretty short for his age, through the Canadian winter, was not a pleasant experience. It was a trying and scary thing for a young kid to be going through.
你知道,許多人會問這個問題, 為什麼飛天車,或用更正確的講法, 一個可以旋轉的飛行器,在現在是可行的? 許多年以前, 亨利.福特預測飛天車 會以某種型態出現在世界上。 而六十年後的今天, 我在這裡告訴你,為何它是可行的。 在我五歲的時候, 時間差不多大概是 福特發表他的預測之後一年, 我當時住在加拿大的一個農村, 位在一個很偏僻的山腳下。 對一個在同年紀裡身材較矮小的小孩而言, 在加拿大的冬天要去上學並不是件開心的經歷。 對那麼小的小孩而言 那是又難受又可怕的事情。
At the end of my first year in school, in the summer of that year, I discovered a couple hummingbirds that were caught in a shed near my home. They'd worn themselves out, beating themselves against the window, and, well, they were easy to capture. I took them outside and as I let them go, that split second, even though they were very tired, that second I let them go they hovered for a second, then zipped off into the distance. I thought, what a great way to get to school.
那年夏天,當我在學校的第一年結束時, 我發現我家附近的一個倉庫裡, 發現了幾隻被困住的蜂鳥。 它們不停地衝撞著玻璃, 並把體力都消耗掉了, 所以我很容易就抓住它們了。 當我把它們帶到外面要放它們走的瞬間,它們會先在空中盤旋一下, 即使它們已經很累了, 然後一瞬間就飛到很遠的地方了。 我心想,這可真是上學的好方法。
(Laughter)
(笑聲)
For a kid at that age, this was like infinite speed, disappearing, and I was very inspired by that. And so the next -- over the next six decades, believe it or not, I've built a number of aircraft, with the goal of creating something that could do for you, or me, what the hummingbird does, and give you that flexibility. I've called this vehicle, generically, a volantor, after the Latin word "volant," meaning, to fly in a light, nimble manner. Volantor-like helicopter, perhaps. The FAA, the controlling body above all, calls it a "powered lift aircraft." And they've actually issued a pilot's license -- a powerlift pilot's license -- for this type of aircraft. It's closer than you think. It's kind of remarkable when you consider that there are no operational powered lift aircraft. So for once, perhaps, the government is ahead of itself.
對這年紀的小孩來說,這種消失的速度真是不可思議的快啊, 給我有相當大的激勵。 於是在六十年之後, 信不信由你, 我為了要製造出能夠像蜂鳥飛行的東西, 讓它搭載著人們, 給予人們更多的彈性, 而製造了許多的飛行器。 我把這部汽車,一般稱為直昇機,取名為 Volantor(飛行者), 源自於拉丁文中 "volant(飛行)" 這個字的意義, 以期能夠輕盈、靈巧的飛行。 也許算是一種直昇機型態的飛行器。 聯邦航空總署(FAA),那個管控在天上飛行的機構, 稱它為 "動力升降飛行器"。 並且他們特別為了這台飛行器 而核發了一張飛行執照 - 一種動力升降機的飛行執照。 如你所想的,這相當的引人注目, 在這個沒有人相信有動力升降飛行器的年代。 也許是頭一次,政府進度超前了。
The press calls my particular volantor a "Skycar." This is a little bit earlier version of it, that's why it's given the X designation, but it's a four-passenger aircraft that could take off vertically, like a helicopter -- therefore it doesn't need an airfield. On the ground, it's powered electrically. It's actually classified as a motorcycle because of the three wheels, which is a great asset because it allows you, theoretically, to use this on the highways in most states, and actually in all cities. So that's an asset because if you've got to deal with the crash protection issues of the automobile, forget it -- you're never going to fly it.
記者把我這獨特飛行器取名為"Skycar(飛天車)"。 這是一台比較早期的版本, 所以被稱為 X。 但它是台可以當載四人的飛行器 - 可以垂直升降,就像直昇機一樣, 因此它不需要跑道。 在地上的時候,它是靠電力在運作。 事實上它被歸類於摩托車, 因為它有三個輪子,這可是很有用的, 因為理論上它可以讓你在許多州的高速公路上奔馳, 事實上在所有的城市都可以。 它的另一項好處是,如果你連開車都會遇到車禍的話, 那別作夢吧,你不可能開著它飛的。
(Laughter)
(笑聲)
One could say that a helicopter does pretty much what the hummingbird does, and gets around in much the same way, and it's true, but a helicopter is a very complex device. It's expensive -- so expensive that very few people could own or use it. It's often been described because of its fragile nature and its complexity, as a series of parts -- a large number of parts -- flying in formation.
你可以說直昇機的飛行方式, 很類似蜂鳥的行為模式, 移動方式幾乎是一樣的,這並沒有錯, 但是直昇機的結構很複雜。 而且它很貴, 只有極少數人負擔得起。 由於它天性很脆弱,以及過於複雜, 常被人形容它像是一組零件 - 一大群零件 - 在空中排列出隊形飛行著。
(Laughter)
(笑聲)
Another difference, and I have to describe this, because it's very personal, another great difference between the helicopter and the volantor -- in my case the Skycar volantor -- is the experience that I've had in flying both of those. In a helicopter you feel -- and it's still a remarkable sensation -- you feel like you're being hauled up from above by a vibrating crane. When you get in the Skycar -- and I can tell you, there's only one other person that's flown it, but he had the same sensation -- you really feel like you're being lifted up by a magic carpet, without any vibration whatsoever. The sensation is unbelievable. And it's been a great motivator. I only get to fly this vehicle occasionally, and only when I can persuade my stockholders to let me do so, but it's still one of those wonderful experiences that reward you for all that time.
另一個差異在於,我必須說明一下, 因為它非常個人化, 直昇機與飛行者之間 有著另一項巨大差異 - 對我來說,飛天車-飛行者, 以我搭乘過這兩種(直昇機、飛天車) 的經歷而言。 在直昇機上你會有一種很特殊的感覺, 你覺得好像是被大型吊車 從上面拉起來的感覺。 當你乘坐飛天車時,我可以告訴你, 還有另一個人也乘坐過它飛行,但他也有和我一樣的感覺 - 你覺得你好像是被一張神奇魔毯 從下面將你舉起來一般, 而不是靠任何動力機具。那是一種不可思議的感覺。 對我來說這是一種很大的動力。 只有在我能說服的股東們 讓我去開這台車的時候, 我才能偶爾去駕駛它飛行。 但在那段時間裡,這件事仍然是 能夠鼓舞你的美好經驗之一.
What we really need is something to replace the automobile for those 50-plus mile trips. Very few people realize that 50 mile-plus trips make up 85 percent of the miles traveled in America. If we can get rid of that, then the highways will now be useful to you, as contrasted by what's happening in many parts of the world today. On this next slide, is an interesting history of what we really have seen in infrastructure, because whether I give you a perfect Skycar, the perfect vehicle for use, it's going to have very little value to you unless you've got a system to use it in. I'm sure any of you have asked the question, yeah, are there great things up there -- what am I going to do, get up there? It's bad enough on a highway, what's it going to be like to be in the air? This world that you're going to be talking about tomorrow is going to be completely integrated. You're not going to be a pilot, you're going to be a passenger. And it's the infrastructure that really determines whether this process goes forward.
我們真正需要的,是能夠取代汽車 進行超過五十英哩旅程的東西。 很少人知道這些超過五十英哩的旅程 佔美國所有旅程中的百分之八十五。 如果我們能夠將這部分移除, 那麼高速公路就會變得很有效率, 就不會像現在世界各地 到處都有交通壅塞問題。 接下來這張是在說 我們對於一些必要設施的計畫, 因為即使我給你一台完美的飛天車, 一台完美的車子讓你使用, 對你幫助並不大 除非你有完整的系統來使用它。 我相信會有人問, 是啊,會有什麼很棒的東西嗎?我能得到什麼呢? 高速公路就已經夠糟了,上了天空更是難以想像吧? 你所討論的未來 將會有整合好的系統。你不用擔任駕駛, 你只要當乘客就好了。 這個設施將會決定這整個計畫是否能夠施行。
I can tell you, technically we can build Skycars -- my God, we went to the moon! The technology there was much more difficult than what I'm dealing with here. But we have to have these priority changes, we have to have infrastructure to go with this. Historically you see that we got around 200 years ago by canals, and as that system disappeared, were replaced by railroads. As that disappeared we came in with highways. But if you look at that top corner -- the highway system -- you see where we are today. Highways are no longer being built, and that's a fact. You won't see any additional highways in the next 10 years. However, the next 10 years, if like the last 10 years, we're going to see 30 percent more traffic. And where is that going to lead you to? So the issue then, I've often asked, is when is it going to happen?
我可以告訴你,我們有技術去製造飛天車 - 老天,我們都已經登上月球了! 上月球需要的技術可比製造飛天車難多了。 但是我們需要先有一些改變, 我們需要一些設施來配合整個計畫。 在歷史紀錄上 你知道運河人們被使用了兩百多年, 隨之,我們使用鐵路來取代運河。 接下來我們用高速公路取代一般鐵路。 但你看看上面角落這裡 - 高速公路系統 - 你知道現況是什麼。我們不再繼續蓋高速公路了, 這就是事實。未來十年內, 你不會看見任何新的高速公路。 但在未來的十年,如果和過去十年一樣的話, 我們會再增加百分之三十的交通量。 這會導致我們使用什麼呢? 所以我常常問我自己, 什麼時候才會有改變?
When are we going to be able to have these vehicles? And of course, if you ask me, I'm going to give you a really optimistic view. After all, I've been spending 60 years here believing it's going to happen tomorrow. So, I'm not going to quote myself on this. I'd prefer to quote someone else, who testified with me before Congress, and in his position as head of NASA put forward this particular vision of the future of this type of aircraft. Now I would argue, actually, if you look at the fact that on the highways today, you're only averaging about 30 miles per hour -- on average, according to the DOT -- the Skycar travels at over 300 miles an hour, up to 25,000 feet. And so, in effect, you could see perhaps a tenfold increase in the ability to get around as far as speed is concerned.
我們何時才能有這些飛天車呢? 當然,如果你問我,我會給你很樂觀的看法。 畢竟我已經花了六十年,相信它未來一定會成真。 所以我不自己來說這些。 我比較想引用別人的話來說明, 他和我一起證實了飛天車的存在給國會議員看, 當時他正擔任太空總署(NASA)的首長, 曾經對於這台飛天車的未來 提出過這個特別的看法。 這邊我要修正一下,事實上,如果你看現在的高速公路, 依據交通部的資料, 每小時的平均速度大概只有30英哩, 飛天車的速度每小時可以超過300英哩, 而且是在兩萬五千英呎的空中。 所以在實際效果上,你會發現 當考慮到速度時, 增加的幅度將近十倍。
Unbeknownst to many of you, the highway in the sky that I'm talking about here has been under construction for 10 years. It makes use of the GPS -- you're familiar with GPS in your automobile, but you may not be familiar with the fact that there's a GPS U.S., there's a Russian GPS, and there's a new GPS system going to Europe, called Galileo. With those three systems, you have what is always necessary -- a level of redundancy that says, if one system fails, you'll still have a way to make sure that you're being controlled. Because if you're in this world, where computers are controlling what you're doing, it's going to be very critical that something can't fail on you.
大部分的人都不知道, 我現在所提的空中交通這件事, 已經建構了約十年。 它使用了GPS - 就是在你車上那個你熟悉的 GPS, 但你可能不知道 GPS 還有分美國的 GPS, 俄國的 GPS, 還有一個新的 在歐洲使用的 GPS 系統叫做 Galileo(伽利略)。 藉由這三套系統, 你就有了某種程度上 所必要的備用系統﹔ 當某個系統失去作用時,你還能夠確認 一切都在掌握之中。 因為你生活在這個依靠電腦控制一切的世界中, 想要不遇到電腦當機實在是很困難的事啊。
How would a trip in a Skycar work? Well, you can't right now take off from your home because it's too noisy. I mean to be able to take off from your home, you'd have to be extremely quiet. But it's still fairly quiet. You'd motor, electrically, to a vertiport, which may be a few blocks, maybe even a few miles away. This is clearly, as I said earlier, a roadable aircraft, and you're not going to spend that much time on the road. After all, if you can fly like that, why are you going to drive around on a highway? Go to a local vertiport, plug in your destination, delivered almost like a passenger. You can play computer games, you can sleep, you can read on the way. This is the world -- there won't be you as a pilot. And I know the pilots in the audience aren't going to like that -- and I've had a lot of bad feedback from people who want to be up there, flying around and experiencing that. And of course, I suppose like recreational parks you can still do that. But the vehicle itself is going to be a very, very controlled environment. Or it's going to have no use to you as a person who might use such a system.
要如何利用飛天車完成一趟旅程呢? 嗯,你現在不可能直接從你家起飛, 因為實在太吵了。 如果要從你家起飛的話,那必須要非常安靜才行。 不過它已經算是很安靜了。 你可以先駕駛到一個飛天車起降場, 也許是幾個路口遠,或甚至幾英哩遠。 如我先前所說,當你搭乘飛天車時, 你不需要花太多時間在道路上。 畢竟,如果你可以讓它飛, 你又何必在高速公路上跑? 到了當地的飛天車起降場後, 輸入你的目的地, 然後就當一個乘客被送到目的地。 在路上你可以玩電動玩具、可以睡覺也可以看書。 在這構想中,飛行員是過去式了。我知道聽眾裡的飛行員可能會不高興, 我也收到許多想要在天空中飛行 感受遨遊天際的人們 給我的不好回應。 當然,我想你還是可以在遊樂場中開飛天車。 不過這台車的控制介面將會有所限制。 否則對於想用這系統的人而言,它可能會變成毫無用處。
We flew the first vehicle for the international press in 1965, when I really got it started. I was a professor at the U.C. Davis System, and I got a lot of excitement around this, and I was able to fund the initiation of the program back in that time. And then through the various years we invented various vehicles. Actually the critical point was in 1989, when we demonstrated the stability of this vehicle -- how completely stable it was in all circumstances, which is of course very critical. Still not a practical vehicle during all of this, but moving in the right direction, we believe. Finally, in the early part of -- or actually the middle of 2002, we flew the 400 -- M400, which was the four-passenger vehicle. In this case here, we're flying it remotely, as we always did at the beginning. And we had very small power plants in it at this time. We are now installing larger powerplants, which will make it possible for me to get back on board.
在1965年,我剛開始這一切時, 我們曾經飛行第一架飛天車給國際記者看過。 我當時是UC Davis系統公司的教授, 對於這個我是相當興奮的, 而那時我因此替這個計畫募集到足夠的款項。 過了幾年之後, 我們發明了各種飛天車。 事實上關鍵點在1989年, 當時我們展示這台飛天車的的穩定性 - 它不論是任何狀況下都很穩定, 這是相當重要的。 那時我們還沒研發出真正可以投入應用的車型, 不過我們相信我們的方向是對的。 終於,在最近幾年 - 正確來說是 2002 年中期, 我們讓 M400 飛了起來,這是一台四人座的飛天車。 我們使用遙控的方式駕駛它,如同我們一開始所做的一樣。 這次我們使用了很小的發電機。 我們現在改裝幾個較大的發電機, 這樣才能讓我重新坐到車上。
A vertical-takeoff aircraft is not the safest vehicle during the test flight program. There's an old adage that applied for the years between 1950s and 1970s, when every aeronautical company was working on vertical-takeoff aircraft. A vertical-takeoff aircraft needs an artificial stabilization system -- that's essential. At least for the hover, and the low-speed flight. If that single-stability system, that brain that flies that aircraft, fails, or if the engine fails, that vehicle crashes. There is no option to that. And the adage that I'm referring to, that applied at that time, was that nothing comes down faster than a VTOL aircraft upside down.
這種垂直起降的飛行器 在試飛期間並不是一個最安全的飛天車。 在 1950 到 1970 年這段期間, 許多製造飛機的公司 都在努力發展垂直起降飛行器, 當時有一句格言。 一台垂直身降的飛行器 需要一個人造的平衡系統 - 這是絕對必要的。 至少對於盤旋 和低速飛行是如此。 如果那唯一的平衡系統 駕駛飛天車的大腦當機了,或是引擎故障了, 這台飛天車就會墜毀。沒有其他選擇。 我剛提到的格言, 就是用在這種時候, 是說沒有東西下降的速度 可以比得上飛天車倒栽蔥的時候還快。
(Laughter)
(笑聲)
That's a macabre comment because we lost a lot of pilots. In fact, the aircraft companies gave up on vertical-takeoff aircraft more or less for a number of years. And there's really only one operational aircraft in the world today that's a vertical-takeoff aircraft -- as distinct from a helicopter -- and that's the Hawker Harrier jump jet. A vertical-takeoff aircraft, like the hummingbird, has a very high metabolism, which means it requires a lot of energy. Getting that energy is very, very difficult. It all comes down to that power plant -- how to get a large amount of power in a small package.
這是個可怕的說法,因為我們已經失去了許多的飛行員。 事實上這幾年來, 有許多製造飛機的公司, 放棄製造垂直升降的飛行器。 現今世界上只有唯一一架算得上實用的飛行器, 這是台垂直升降的飛行器 - 不同於直昇機 - 那就是鷹式戰鬥噴射機。 一架垂直升降飛行器, 就像蜂鳥一樣, 有著快速的新陳代謝系統, 意思是說它會消耗大量能量。 要得到這種能量很不容易。問題在於那顆發電機 - 要怎麼用較小的尺寸獲得較大的能量。
Fortunately, Dr. Felix Wankel invented the rotary engine. A very unique engine -- it's round, it's small, it's vibration-free. It fits exactly where we need to fit it, right in the center of the hubs of the ducts in the system -- very critical. In fact that engine -- for those who are into the automobile -- know that it recently is applied to the RX8 -- the Mazda. And that sportscar won Sports Car of the Year. Wonderful engine. In that application, it generates one horsepower per pound, which is twice as good as your car engine today, but only half of what we need. My company has spent 35 years and many millions of dollars taking that rotary engine, which was invented in the late '50s, and getting it to the point that we get over two horsepower per pound, reliably, and critical. We actually get 175 horsepower into one cubic foot. We have eight engines in this vehicle. We have four computers. We have two parachutes.
幸好,Felix Wankel 博士 發明了轉子引擎。 一種很獨特的引擎 - 它是圓的, 它很小,幾乎不太會震動。 剛好符合我們所需的尺寸, 可以裝置在系統的正中心 - 很不容易做到。事實上這顆引擎 - 對於汽車愛好者來說 應該很熟悉,它就是 馬自達 RX-8 所使用的引擎。 那台跑車贏得了當年的車賽。 那是很棒的引擎。 使用時,每磅可以產生一匹馬力, 已經比現在的車子好上兩倍, 但只有我們需要的一半。 我們公司花了35年 以及幾百萬美金去改良這個轉子引擎, 事實上它早在50年代末期就出現了, 最後終於能穩定的達到每磅兩匹馬力以上。 事實上我們只用一立方英呎的空間 就可以得到175匹馬力。 我們在這台飛天車上裝了八顆引擎。 我們有四部電腦還有兩具降落傘。
Redundancy is the critical issue here. If you want to stay alive you've got to have backups. And we have actually flown this vehicle and lost an engine, and continued to hover. The computers back up each other. There's a voting system -- if one computer is not agreeing with the other three, it's kicked out of the system. And then you have three -- you still have the triple redundancy. If one of those fails, you still have a second chance. If you stick around, then good luck. There won't be a third chance. The parachutes are there -- hopefully, more for psychological than real reasons, but they will be an ultimate backup if it comes to that.
備用系統在這兒是很重要的。 如果你想活下去,你就要準備一些備用品。 我們過去試飛這台飛天車時,確實曾發生過一具引擎故障, 而且還能維持盤旋狀態。 這些電腦互為備用系統。這兒有個投票系統 -- 如果某台電腦的判斷被另外三台否決, 它就會被踢出這個系統。 於是你剩下三台電腦 -- 你還有三個備用系統。 如果這三台其中一台故障,你還有第二個逃生的機會。 如果你還不回航,那就多保重了。 不會有第三次機會的。 上面還有降落傘, 希望只是求心安而不是真的會用到, 真的需要時,它們就是最好的備用品了。
(Laughter)
(笑聲)
I'd like to show you an animation in this next one, which is one element of the Skycar's use, but it's one that demonstrates how it could be used. You could think of it personally in your own terms, of how you might use it. Video: Skycar dispatched, launch rescue vehicle for San Francisco. Paul Moller: I believe that personal transportation in something like the Skycar, probably in another volantor form as well, will be a significant part of our lives, as Dr. Goldin says, within the next 10 years. And it's going to change the demographics in a very significant way. If you can live 75 miles from San Francisco and get there in 15 minutes, you're going to sell your 700,000-dollar apartment, buy an upscale home on the side of a mountain, buy a Skycar, which I think would be priced at that time perhaps in the area of 100,000 dollars, put money in the bank ... that's a very significant incentive for getting out of San Francisco. But you better be the first one out of town as the real estate values go to hell.
接下來我要給你們看一段動畫, 它是關於, 飛天車的使用原理, 並示範我們可以怎麼去運用它。 你可以用自己的角度去思考, 你會怎麼去使用它。 飛天車出發了,前往舊金山進行拯救任務。 我相信如同 Goldin 博士所說, 在未來十年內, 類似於飛天車的個人交通工具 或其他型態的飛行器, 將會成為人們生活中重要的一部份。 這將會明顯的改變人們的居住型態。 如果你能住在離舊金山75英哩但只需要15分鐘的交通時間, 那你就可以賣掉價值七十萬美金的公寓, 然後在山邊買一棟更高檔的房子, 再買一部飛天車, 我想那時後飛天車的價格大概 只要十萬美金左右,剩下的錢可以存進銀行 ... 讓你把錢存下來是購買的一大誘因 ... 但你最好是第一個搬離都市的,因為房地產價格會暴跌。
(Laughter)
(笑聲)
Developing the Skycar has been a real challenge. Obviously I'm dependent on a lot of other people believing in what I'm doing -- both financially and in technical help. And that has -- you run into situations where you have this great acceptance of what you're doing, and a lot of rejection of the same kind of thing. I characterized this emerging technology in an aphorism, as it's described, which really talks about what I've experienced, and I'm sure what other people may have experienced in emerging technologies.
開發飛天車是一項很大的挑戰。 很明顯的,我仰賴很多相信我的人們 提供給我金錢上與技術上的幫助。 畢竟對於同一件事情, 你可能會遇到接受度很高的人, 也可能遇到完全不認同的人。 我用一句格言來描述 這項嶄新的技術, 而這格言描述的是 我所經歷過的一切, 以及我相信其他人對於嶄新的技術 也會有的經驗。
There's an interesting poll that came out recently under NAS -- I think it's MSNBC -- in which they asked the question, "Are you in the market for a volantor?" Twenty-three percent said, "Yes, as soon as possible." Forty-seven percent -- yes, as soon as they could -- price could come down. Twenty-three percent said, "As soon as it's proven safe." Only seven percent said that they wouldn't consider buying a Skycar. I'm encouraged by that. At least it makes me feel like, to some extent, it is becoming self-evident. That we need an alternative to the automobile, at least for those 50-mile trips and more, so that the highways become usable in today's world. Thank you.
最近有個有趣的投票 在 NAS -- 應該是 MSNBC 上 -- 他們問了這個問題, "你會想買飛天車嗎?" 23% 的人說,「會,我想趕快入手。」 47% 的人說,「會,只要價格不要太高我就買。」 23% 的人說,「只要能證明它是安全的我就買。」 只有 7% 的人說 他們不會想買飛天車。 這個結果給予我很大的鼓勵。至少讓我覺得, 某個角度來看,它可以證明 我們需要汽車的替代品 至少是對於超過 50英哩的旅程, 這樣高速公路才會變得有效率。 謝謝大家。