So if I was to ask you what the connection between a bottle of Tide detergent and sweat was, you'd probably think that's the easiest question that you're going to be asked in Edinburgh all week. But if I was to say that they're both examples of alternative or new forms of currency in a hyperconnected, data-driven global economy, you'd probably think I was a little bit bonkers. But trust me, I work in advertising.
如果我问你 一瓶汰渍洗涤剂和汗水 之间有什么联系 你可能觉得这是本周在爱丁堡期间 遇到的最简单的问题. 如果我说这两个例子 在这个紧密联系,高度依赖数据的全球经济中 都属于一种新型货币, 你大概觉得我脑子不太正常. 但请相信我,我可是个做广告的
(Laughter)
(笑声)
And I am going to tell you the answer, but obviously after this short break.
我将会告诉你们答案, 但我们先谈点别的.
So a more challenging question is one that I was asked, actually, by one of our writers a couple of weeks ago, and I didn't know the answer: What's the world's best performing currency? It's actually Bitcoin. Now, for those of you who may not be familiar, Bitcoin is a crypto-currency, a virtual currency, synthetic currency. It was founded in 2008 by this anonymous programmer using a pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto. No one knows who or what he is. He's almost like the Banksy of the Internet.
有一个更难回答的问题 是几星期前公司的文案问我的 我当时没答上来: 全世界表现最好的货币是什么? 答案其实是比特币. 也许你们有人对它不熟悉. 比特币是一种隐匿的、虚拟的、人造的货币 它诞生于 2008 年 是由一个化名中本聪的程序员提出的, 没人知道他的真实身份. 他就像因特网界的 Banksy(英国匿名街头画家)
And I'm probably not going to do it proper service here, but my interpretation of how it works is that Bitcoins are released through this process of mining. So there's a network of computers that are challenged to solve a very complex mathematical problem and the person that manages to solve it first gets the Bitcoins. And the Bitcoins are released, they're put into a public ledger called the Blockchain, and then they float, so they become a currency, and completely decentralized, that's the sort of scary thing about this, which is why it's so popular. So it's not run by the authorities or the state. It's actually managed by the network. And the reason that it's proved very successful is it's private, it's anonymous, it's fast, and it's cheap. And you do get to the point where there's some wild fluctuations with Bitcoin. So in one level it went from something like 13 dollars to 266, literally in the space of four months, and then crashed and lost half of its value in six hours. And it's currently around that kind of 110 dollar mark in value.
也许我的解释并不到位 但我是这样理解比特币的: 比特币通过计算机“挖矿”产生 一群电脑通过互联网 竞相破解一个非常复杂的数学问题 第一个找到答案的人就能拿到比特币 新的比特币产生后 会被放到一个叫“区块链”的总账 它们可以流通使用,成了一种货币 比特币最可怕也是最迷人之处 在于它是"无政府"的, 没有机构或者国家可以管理它 它通过网络节点进行集体管理 私人的,不记名,交易迅捷,低成本 这些特点让比特币变得非常成功. 当然,比特币也有弊端, 它的价格有时疯狂浮动. 在四个月的时间里 比特币兑美元的价格从13美元暴涨至266美元 然后又在6小时里损失了一半的价值 现在比特币巿价 差不多在110美元左右.
But what it does show is that it's sort of gaining ground, it's gaining respectability. You get services, like Reddit and Wordpress are actually accepting Bitcoin as a payment currency now. And that's showing you that people are actually placing trust in technology, and it's started to trump and disrupt and interrogate traditional institutions and how we think about currencies and money. And that's not surprising, if you think about the basket case that is the E.U. I think there was a Gallup survey out recently that said something like, in America, trust in banks is at an all-time low, it's something like 21 percent. And you can see here some photographs from London where Barclays sponsored the city bike scheme, and some activists have done some nice piece of guerrilla marketing here and doctored the slogans. "Sub-prime pedaling." "Barclays takes you for a ride." These are the more polite ones I could share with you today. But you get the gist, so people have really started to sort of lose faith in institutions.
但很明显,比特币的影响力在变大, 越来越多的人承认它 包括 Reddit 和 Wordpress 在内的一些服务商 现在已经接受比特币作为付款方式. 从中可以看出 人们信任这种科技 而一些传统货币机构 则感到了来自比特币的威胁 从而使我们逐步改变对货币和金钱的看法. 只要想想欧盟那个烂摊子, 这就一点也不让人惊讶. 盖洛普最近做了个调查 在美国,人们对于银行的信任度达到史上最低值 只有21%的人信任银行. 再来看看这些来自伦敦的照片, 这是由伯克莱银行赞助的公共自行车项目, 一些抗议者以这种 很棒的游击式营销方式篡改了活动标语. “次级踏(暗示次贷危机)" “巴克莱带着你团团转(被人利用了)" 这些算是比较客气的, 可以拿来和你们分享. 但是意思已经够明白了 人们对金融机构开始失去信心
There's a P.R. company called Edelman, they do this very interesting survey every year precisely around trust and what people are thinking. And this is a global survey, so these numbers are global. And what's interesting is that you can see that hierarchy is having a bit of a wobble, and it's all about heterarchical now, so people trust people like themselves more than they trust corporations and governments. And if you look at these figures for the more developed markets like U.K., Germany, and so on, they're actually much lower. And I find that sort of scary. People are actually trusting businesspeople more than they're trusting governments and leaders.
有个叫爱德曼的公关公司 每年都会围绕信任度和人们的想法 作一个有趣的调查. 调查是全球性的,这些数据也反映了全球的情况 有意思的是 你可以看出 等级制度有点摇摇欲坠了 未来是属于扁平合作式结构的 也就是说人们更愿意相信他们自己, 而非企业或是政府. 在英国、德国等发达国家 信任度就更低了. 想起来有点吓人 比起政府和领导人 人们居然更相信商人
So what's starting to happen, if you think about money, if you sort of boil money down to an essence, it is literally just an expression of value, an agreed value. So what's happening now, in the digital age, is that we can quantify value in lots of different ways and do it more easily, and sometimes the way that we quantify those values, it makes it much easier to create new forms and valid forms of currency. In that context, you can see that networks like Bitcoin suddenly start to make a bit more sense.
而这对于货币有什么影响呢 归结货币的本质, 其实它是一种价值的表达形式,一种约定的价值. 在当下的数字时代, 我们拥有很多方式去量化价值 其中有一些很简单 有时候 当我们需要量化价值时 最简单的方式 是创造一种新的、靠谱的货币 从这个角度看 我们就能更好地理解比特币
So if you think we're starting to question and disrupt and interrogate what money means, what our relationship with it is, what defines money, then the ultimate extension of that is, is there a reason for the government to be in charge of money anymore? So obviously I'm looking at this through a marketing prism, so from a brand perspective, brands literally stand or fall on their reputations. And if you think about it, reputation has now become a currency. You know, reputations are built on trust, consistency, transparency. So if you've actually decided that you trust a brand, you want a relationship, you want to engage with the brand, you're already kind of participating in lots of new forms of currency.
如果顺着这个思路走 继续质疑货币的意义、与人类的关系, 是什么因素定义了货币, 那最终必然导致这样一个问题: 政府是否有理由 继续掌管货币. 显然我是用市场营销的眼光看待这个问题 从品牌角度说 品牌的生存依靠口碑 仔细想想,口碑也是一种货币 口碑基于信任, 持久,信息公开. 如果你信任一个品牌 想要与之建立长久的关系 那么你已经在无意间 使用了很多新型货币了
So you think about loyalty. Loyalty essentially is a micro-economy. You think about rewards schemes, air miles. The Economist said a few years ago that there are actually more unredeemed air miles in the world than there are dollar bills in circulation. You know, when you are standing in line in Starbucks, 30 percent of transactions in Starbucks on any one day are actually being made with Starbucks Star points. So that's a sort of Starbucks currency staying within its ecosystem.
说到品牌忠诚度 忠诚度事实上就是一个微观经济. 我们都知道激励计划、里程兑换等等 《经济学人》几年前有一篇报道说 全世界没有兑换的里程数 比流通的美元数额还多 当你在星巴克排队等候时 星巴克一天的交易额中 有30%是通过积分卡进行的. 所以在星巴克的生态系统里 星享卡积分就是一种货币
And what I find interesting is that Amazon has recently launched Amazon coins. So admittedly it's a currency at the moment that's purely for the Kindle. So you can buy apps and make purchases within those apps, but you think about Amazon, you look at the trust barometer that I showed you where people are starting to trust businesses, especially businesses that they believe in and trust more than governments. So suddenly, you start thinking, well Amazon potentially could push this. It could become a natural extension, that as well as buying stuff -- take it out of the Kindle -- you could buy books, music, real-life products, appliances and goods and so on. And suddenly you're getting Amazon, as a brand, is going head to head with the Federal Reserve in terms of how you want to spend your money, what money is, what constitutes money.
另外我还注意到 亚马逊最近推出了亚马逊币 这显然是一种货币 当然暂时只能在Kindle上使用 你可以用它购买应用或是进行应用内购买 亚马逊的这个例子 正说明了我刚才讲的 人们开始信任企业 特别是那些 他们觉得比政府更靠谱的企业 顺着这个思路往下想 亚马逊的潜力有多大呢 如果把它的服务延伸出去 不限制在Kindle上 而是可以用亚马逊币 买书、买碟、家电和生活有关的一切商品 那么亚马逊作为一个品牌 它的竞争对手就是美联储了 这关系到你决定如何花钱 以及金钱的定义和组成
And I'll get you back to Tide, the detergent now, as I promised. This is a fantastic article I came across in New York Magazine, where it was saying that drug users across America are actually purchasing drugs with bottles of Tide detergent. So they're going into convenience stores, stealing Tide, and a $20 bottle of Tide is equal to 10 dollars of crack cocaine or weed. And what they're saying, so some criminologists have looked at this and they're saying, well, okay, Tide as a product sells at a premium. It's 50 percent above the category average. It's infused with a very complex cocktail of chemicals, so it smells very luxurious and very distinctive, and, being a Procter and Gamble brand, it's been supported by a lot of mass media advertising. So what they're saying is that drug users are consumers too, so they have this in their neural pathways. When they spot Tide, there's a shortcut. They say, that is trust. I trust that. That's quality. So it becomes this unit of currency, which the New York Magazine described as a very oddly loyal crime wave, brand-loyal crime wave, and criminals are actually calling Tide "liquid gold."
现在我们回到一开始 汰渍洗涤剂的例子 这是我在《纽约杂志》读到的一篇很棒的文章 文章提到美国各地的吸毒者 正在用一瓶瓶汰渍洗涤剂 来购买毒品 他们跑到便利店 去偷汰渍 一瓶20美元的汰渍 可以买到价值10美元的可卡因或是大麻 一些犯罪学家注意到了这个现象 他们的结论是什么呢 汰渍作为一个产品是溢价销售的 它比同类产品要贵50% 它包含了非常复杂的化学成分组合 闻起来气味芬芳又很特别, 并且作为宝洁旗下的品牌 它的广告曝光率非常高 那些吸毒的人也是消费者 他们已经形成了这个思路 一看到汰渍就有条件反射 觉得这是个值得信任的产品,有品质保证 所以它成为了一种货币 《纽约杂志》称之为一种古怪的犯罪潮 一股具有品牌忠诚度的犯罪潮 事实上犯罪分子还把汰渍称作“液体黄金”
Now, what I thought was funny was the reaction from the P&G spokesperson. They said, obviously tried to dissociate themselves from drugs, but said, "It reminds me of one thing and that's the value of the brand has stayed consistent." (Laughter) Which backs up my point and shows he didn't even break a sweat when he said that.
宝洁对此是如何回应的呢 也很有意思 宝洁显然不想和毒品扯上关系 它们认为这件事说明了一点 就是汰渍的品牌价值很稳定(笑) 这证明了我之前的观点 也看得出发言人表态时滴汗未出
So that brings me back to the connection with sweat. In Mexico, Nike has run a campaign recently called, literally, Bid Your Sweat. So you think about, these Nike shoes have got sensors in them, or you're using a Nike FuelBand that basically tracks your movement, your energy, your calorie consumption. And what's happening here, this is where you've actually elected to join that Nike community. You've bought into it. They're not advertising loud messages at you, and that's where advertising has started to shift now is into things like services, tools and applications. So Nike is literally acting as a well-being partner, a health and fitness partner and service provider.
下面就来说说汗渍 耐克最近在墨西哥发起了一个宣传活动 叫“用你的汗水出价” 原理是这样的 这些耐克鞋里装有感应器 或者你戴了耐克的运动腕带 它就能检测你的移动 能量的变化和卡路里的消耗 实际上你是主动加入了耐克的社区 你相信它了 而不是说耐克的宣传力度有多大 现如今的广告更多地是在宣传 某种服务、工具和应用 耐克扮演的角色 是一个健康助手、健身伙伴、服务提供者
So what happens with this is they're saying, "Right, you have a data dashboard. We know how far you've run, how far you've moved, what your calorie intake, all that sort of stuff. What you can do is, the more you run, the more points you get, and we have an auction where you can buy Nike stuff but only by proving that you've actually used the product to do stuff." And you can't come into this. This is purely for the community that are sweating using Nike products. You can't buy stuff with pesos. This is literally a closed environment, a closed auction space.
这个活动是这样的 显示屏上有你跑步的距离 卡路里消耗等等数据 你跑的越多得到的点数就越多 你就可以以这些点数去购买耐克的产品 也就是说只有当你确实使用了耐克的产品 才能参加这个活动 买家局限在耐克的使用群体 你不能拿钱来买里面的产品 相当于一个封闭的环境 封闭的拍卖场所
In Africa, you know, airtime has become literally a currency in its own right. People are used to, because mobile is king, they're very, very used to transferring money, making payments via mobile. And one of my favorite examples from a brand perspective going on is Vodafone, where, in Egypt, lots of people make purchases in markets and very small independent stores. Loose change, small change is a real problem, and what tends to happen is you buy a bunch of stuff, you're due, say, 10 cents, 20 cents in change. The shopkeepers tend to give you things like an onion or an aspirin, or a piece of gum, because they don't have small change. So when Vodafone came in and saw this problem, this consumer pain point, they created some small change which they call Fakka, which literally sits and is given by the shopkeepers to people, and it's credit that goes straight onto their mobile phone. So this currency becomes credit, which again, is really, really interesting.
下一个例子来自非洲 在那里 通话时间已经变成了一种货币. 因为手机的重要性 那里的人已经非常习惯于 通过手机进行转账或者支付 我很喜欢的一个品牌例子 来自沃达丰 在埃及 人们在市场 或是小商店购物的时候 找零钱是件很麻烦的事 所以一般情况下 假设你买了一堆东西 算下来有10美分20美分的找零 店主就会给你一个洋葱 一粒阿司匹林或者一片口香糖 因为他们找不开零钱 沃达丰发现了这个现象 这种消费者的“痛点” 于是它们发明了一种叫 Fakka 的零钱 方便店主可以 用来支付给顾客 Fakka 里的金额可以直接充值到手机里 所以这种零钱就变成了信用 这是个非常有趣的例子
And we did a survey that backs up the fact that, you know, 45 percent of people in this very crucial demographic in the U.S. were saying that they're comfortable using an independent or branded currency. So that's getting really interesting here, a really interesting dynamic going on. And you think, corporations should start taking their assets and thinking of them in a different way and trading them. And you think, is it much of a leap? It seems farfetched, but when you think about it, in America in 1860, there were 1,600 corporations issuing banknotes. There were 8,000 kinds of notes in America. And the only thing that stopped that, the government controlled four percent of the supply, and the only thing that stopped it was the Civil War breaking out, and the government suddenly wanted to take control of the money. So government, money, war, nothing changes there, then.
我们作过的一个调查显示 在美国 25-34岁这个很重要的年龄阶层里 有45%的人 表示他们愿意使用 某种独立货币或是品牌货币 所以事情变的很有趣 有一种很有趣的趋势 你会觉得 企业应该将品牌货币视作自己的资产 从全新的角度看待它们 把它们投入交易进行流通 这听上去是个巨大的飞跃 感觉遥不可及 但是要知道 在1860 年的时候, 美国大约有 1600 家企业发行纸币 全美有 8000 种纸币在流通 之所以这个局面没有继续 政府只控制 4% 货币供给的这个局面 之所以没有继续 是因为内战爆发了 突然间政府想要控制货币的发行流通 政府、货币、战争,这些元素都没有变
So what I'm going to ask is, basically, is history repeating itself? Is technology making paper money feel outmoded? Are we decoupling money from the government? You know, you think about, brands are starting to fill the gaps. Corporations are filling gaps that governments can't afford to fill. So I think, you know, will we be standing on stage buying a coffee -- organic, fair trade coffee -- next year using TED florins or TED shillings?
所以我想提出的问题是 历史是否在重演 纸质货币会不会被高科技所淘汰 货币是否会和政府脱钩 细想一下 品牌和企业正在填补 那些政府填补不了的空隙 我想也许明年 我们能在台上用 TED 币买一杯咖啡 一杯公平贸易有机咖啡
Thank you very much.
非常感谢
(Applause)
(掌声)
Thank you. (Applause)
谢谢(掌声)