Today, I want to talk about how mobility is our destiny. It certainly is our past. This map shows our past one hundred thousand years of history as a species. It’s the story of humankind’s journey from the Rift Valley of Africa and spreading across all of the continents. It’s the story of how we got to where we are. For the vast majority of that time, we have been nomadic. Only in the past several thousand years did humans become sedentary. So the key question to ask is are we becoming nomadic again? To answer that question, we have to appreciate our geography, specifically the four layers of geography that shape our very civilization. The first layer is natural geography. That is the environment, ecosystems and habitats. The second layer is our political geography, the borders and the boundaries that divide us. The third layer is functional geography, the infrastructure and supply chains that connect us, whether it’s energy or transportation, or communication systems. And the fourth layer is human geography, the geography of us, our distribution around the planet. Today, these four geographies are very badly misaligned. We have aging societies in need of young people, we have depopulating countries that are actually abundant in resources. Climate change is eviscerating the habitats of many countries while allowing others to thrive and diversify their economies. That is why in the decades ahead, billions of people may be forced to uproot themselves and relocate because of the instability that has been unleashed by these cartographic misalignments. And which region in the world has the greatest number of people at risk? Asia. Asia represents the majority of the world population, but also the people that are most desperately facing the risks of droughts, floods, rising sea levels and other man-made natural disasters. Now, economists and investors say that Asia represents more than half of global GDP and that Asia will be the engine of the new global middle class. But it won’t be if Asia doesn’t also control its carbon emissions and its pollution and prepare for some of inevitable damage that climate change has already brought, and also build more sustainable economic and societal models for the future. Right now, world leaders are making noble efforts to mitigate climate change. Governments and industries are pledging to curb emissions, to switch to alternative and renewable sources of energy and undertake radical technological interventions to decarbonize the atmosphere. But as important as that is for our world of today, of tomorrow and for future generations, it doesn't help the hundreds of millions of people who are already suffering the adverse effects of climate change right now. We therefore need to invest as much effort and money into adaptation as we do into mitigation. For many people across the planet to adapt will mean to move. In recent decades, we have settled into a fairly predictable patterns of migration within regions and between regions. For example, people shifting among the republics of the former Soviet Union or between South Asia and the Gulf countries, within Europe, within Africa, from Latin America to North America. These are the largest patterns of migration in recent decades. But this past may not be a good guide to the future. Why? Because over the past ten thousand years, humanity has been concentrating within the latitudes that scientists describe as the optimal climate niche. But as global temperatures rise, that niche is shifting and so must we. Today, we're experiencing collapsing states and natural disasters, and we react to each of these crises inadequately. But what if we applied our foresight to proactively resettle at risk populations to habitable geographies, places that are shrinking in populations even as they’re actually becoming more livable? And what if we did so using the latest technologies so that our future habitats would be more self-sufficient in energy, food and water, and even designed mobile settlements so that people could shift as climate conditions do? This is what global leaders and Asian decision makers need to focus on. They need to use local and renewable resources in their energy generation, construction, transportation and supply chains. They need to invest in sustainable farming and solar powered water desalination. And they need to relocate people to more climate resilient areas but to do so sustainably without damaging our habitats. In day-to-day life, our politicians and business executives have many challenges to contend with. This is more important. Remember that even if we stopped all greenhouse gas emissions today, significant and dangerous chain reactions are already baked into our ecosystem. The environment is a complex system. It will not return to the normal of 1800, of 1900, or even of 2000. What comes next is going to be different, and whatever it is, it is not going to adapt to us. We have to adapt to it. We have to move people to resources and technologies to people. We have to think beyond sovereignty to stewardship of our planet, and we have to evolve towards the next model of civilization, one that is more mobile and more sustainable. And we will once again embrace our nomadic roots because mobility is our destiny. Thank you.
今天,我想聊一聊 为什么流动性是我们的命运。 流动性一定是我们的过去。 这张地图展示了过去十万年间 我们作为一个物种的历史。 它讲述的是人类的旅程, 从非洲的裂谷, 遍及到所有大洲。 它讲述的是我们 如何到达了身处的地方。 那段历史中的绝大多数时间, 我们都过着游牧生活。 只是在过去的几千年, 人类才开始定居。 所以关键的问题是 “我们是否会再次开始流浪?” 为了回答这个问题, 我们需要了解我们的地理, 具体到塑造了人类文明 的四个层面上的地理。 第一层是自然地理。 这指的是环境、生态系统和栖息地。 第二层是我们的政治地理, 将我们区分开的边境与界限。 第三层是功能地理, 将我们连接起来的 基础设施和供应链, 不论是能源、交通,还是通讯系统。 第四层则是人文地理, 关于我们的地理, 我们在地球上的分布。 当今,这四种地理很严重地错位了。 我们有需要年轻人口的老龄化社会, 我们有人口减少却资源富余的国家。 气候变化正在重创许多国家的环境 却让另一些国家的经济 得以繁荣和多样化发展。 这就是为什么在接下来的几十年, 数以十亿计的人 可能会被迫迁移、离开家园, 这是由于地理错位 所引发的不稳定性。 而世界上哪个地区 有最多的人口正面临风险? 亚洲。亚洲代表了 一大部分的世界人口, 但也正是这些人在绝望地面临着 干旱、洪水、海平面上升, 以及其他人为自然灾害的威胁。 现如今,经济学家和投资者们说 亚洲代表了超过一半的全球 GDP, 他们说亚洲会是 新全球中产阶级的引擎。 但其前提条件是 亚洲控制其碳排放量和污染, 并针对气候变化已经 造成的破坏做好应对准备, 同时在未来建立起 更加可持续的经济和社会模型。 现下,全球领导者们正在为减缓全球变暖 做出可贵的努力。 政府及各行各业承诺控制排放, 转向可再生的替代能源, 并采取全新的技术 干预来使大气脱碳。 但尽管这对我们当今世界、 子孙后代的未来是重要的, 它并不能帮助那些成千上万的 已经在遭受环境变化恶果的人。 因此,我们需要 在“适应现状”上投入, 与“减轻恶化”相当的金钱和努力。 对于地球上许多人来说, 适应意味着移动。 最近几十年, 我们在地区之内与地区之间 都形成了相对可预测的迁移模式。 例如,人们在 前苏联各政体之间移动, 或是在南亚与海湾国家之间, 在欧洲内部、非洲内部, 以及从拉丁美洲到北美洲。 这些是近几十年最大的迁移模式。 但这样的过去未必 能作为未来的指引。 为什么呢? 因为在过去的一万年间, 人类文明一直聚集在 科学家所称的“最适气候”纬度上。 但随着全球气温升高, 这一气候带正在移动, 而我们也必须随之移动。 当今,我们正经经历着 国家的崩溃和自然灾害的发生, 我们对这些危机的应对是不足的。 那我们能不能活用我们的远见来 积极地将面临危险的人口 重新安置到宜居的地区, 这些人口正在缩减, 尽管它们正变得更加适合居住的地区呢? 我们能不能运用最新的科技 让我们未来的栖息地拥有 更加自给自足的能源、食物和水资源, 甚至,我们能不能 设计更加灵活的定居点 让人们可以随着 气候条件的变化而迁移呢? 这是全球领导者 和亚洲决策者们需要专注于的。 他们需要将当地的 可再生的资源运用到 能源生产、建设、交通和供应链上。 他们需要投资 可持续农业和太阳能海水淡化。 他们还需要将人们迁移到 更能适应气候变化的地区, 并可持续地完成这个过程, 避免破坏我们的栖息地。 日常生活中,政治家 和商业决策者面临着许多挑战。 而我们所提到的这点更为重要。 请记住,即使我们现在 停止所有温室气体的排放, 严重而危险的连锁反应 已经在我们的生态系统中形成了。 环境是一个复杂的系统。 它不会回到 1800 年、 1900 年或甚至的 2000 年的“正常”状态。 接下来发生的将是与以往不同的, 无论如何,它不会适应我们。 我们必须去适应它。 我们必须将人口向资源移动, 让科技适应人类。 我们必须跨越国界 来进行全球的管理, 我们必须向新的文明模式进化, 一个更具流动性和可持续性的模式。 我们也将重新接受我们的游牧传统 因为流动性是我们的命运。 谢谢。