The informal markets of Africa are stereotypically seen as chaotic and lackadaisical. The downside of hearing the word "informal" is this automatic grand association we have, which is very negative, and it's had significant consequences and economic losses, easily adding -- or subtracting -- 40 to 60 percent of the profit margin for the informal markets alone. As part of a task of mapping the informal trade ecosystem, we've done an extensive literature review of all the reports and research on cross-border trade in East Africa, going back 20 years. This was to prepare us for fieldwork to understand what was the problem, what was holding back informal trade in the informal sector.
非洲的非正式市場 被很刻板印象地認為是混亂且懶散的。 聽到「非正式」這個詞的缺點就是 會讓我們自動產生聯想, 且是很負面的聯想。 它會有嚴重的後果和經濟上的損失, 很容易就會增加或減少 40%~60% 的毛利率, 這僅是非正式市場的數據。 為了對映非正式貿易生態系統, 我們的部分工作是大量探討文獻, 包括所有關於東非 跨境貿易的報告和研究, 共回溯了二十年。 讓我們準備好田野調查工作, 去實際了解問題, 到底是什麼讓非正式貿易 一直留在非正式部門中。
What we discovered over the last 20 years was, nobody had distinguished between illicit -- which is like smuggling or contraband in the informal sector -- from the legal but unrecorded, such as tomatoes, oranges, fruit. This criminalization -- what in Swahili refers to as "biashara," which is the trade or the commerce, versus "magendo," which is the smuggling or contraband -- this criminalization of the informal sector, in English, by not distinguishing between these aspects, easily can cost each African economy between 60 to 80 percent addition on the annual GDP growth rate, because we are not recognizing the engine of what keeps the economies running.
我們發現過去二十年來, 沒有人去區分「非法」, 像是非正式部門中的 走私或非法買賣, 與「合法但沒被記錄的貿易」, 比如蕃茄、橘子、水果。 這種犯罪化── 斯華西里語的「biashara」 意思是貿易或商業, 相對於表示走私或非法買賣的 「magendo」── 這種把非正式部門犯罪化的現象── 在英文中並沒有區別這些面向── 很容易就會讓每個非洲經濟體 在每年的 GDP 成長率上 增加了 60%~80% 的成本, 因為我們沒有認清 什麼是讓經濟持續運行和成長的引擎。
The informal sector is growing jobs at four times the rate of the traditional formal economy, or "modern" economy, as many call it. It offers employment and income generation opportunities to the most "unskilled" in conventional disciplines. But can you make a french fry machine out of an old car?
非正式部門增加的工作機會 是傳統「正式」經濟── 有時被許多人稱為 「現代」經濟──的四倍。 它提供就業機會和金錢收入 給傳統產業中最沒技術的人。 但你能用一台老車子 來做一台炸薯條機器嗎?
So, this, ladies and gentlemen, is what so desperately needs to be recognized. As long as the current assumptions hold that this is criminal, this is shadow, this is illegal, there will be no attempt at integrating the informal economic ecosystem with the formal or even the global one.
所以,各位先生女士, 這就是迫切需要被認清的事情。 只要目前的假設仍然認為這是犯罪、 這是陰影、 這是非法的, 就不會有人嘗試將 非正式經濟生態系統 和正式或甚至全球 經濟生態系統做整合。
I'm going to tell you a story of Teresia, a trader who overturned all our assumptions, made us question all the stereotypes that we'd gone in on, based on 20 years of literature review. Teresia sells clothes under a tree in a town called Malaba, on the border of Uganda and Kenya. You think it's very simple, don't you? We'll go hang up new clothes from the branches, put out the tarp, settle down, wait for customers, and there we have it. She was everything we were expecting according to the literature, to the research, right down to she was a single mom driven to trade, supporting her kids.
我要告訴各位關於泰瑞西雅的故事, 她是個推翻我們所有假設的商人, 她讓我們質疑根據過去二十年文獻探討 產生出的所有刻板印象。 在一個叫馬拉巴的鎮上, 泰瑞西雅在樹下販售衣服, 馬拉巴位在烏干達與肯亞的交界。 你認為這很簡單,是嗎? 我們只要把新衣服掛在樹枝上, 準備好防水布, 安頓好,等客人上門, 這樣就好了。 她完全是我們根據文獻及研究 所期待的樣子, 包括她是單親媽媽,被迫去做生意, 以供養孩子。
So what overturned our assumptions? What surprised us? First, Teresia paid the county government market fees every single working day for the privilege of setting up shop under her tree. She's been doing it for seven years, and she's been getting receipts. She keeps records. We're seeing not a marginal, underprivileged, vulnerable African woman trader by the side of the road -- no. We were seeing somebody who's keeping sales records for years; somebody who had an entire ecosystem of retail that comes in from Uganda to pick up inventory; someone who's got handcarts bringing the goods in, or the mobile money agent who comes to collect cash at the end of the evening. Can you guess how much Teresia spends, on average, each month on inventory -- stocks of new clothes that she gets from Nairobi? One thousand five hundred US dollars. That's around 20,000 US dollars invested in trade goods and services every year. This is Teresia, the invisible one, the hidden middle.
是什麼推翻了我們的假設? 什麼讓我們吃驚? 首先,泰瑞西雅每個工作日 都支付郡政府市場費, 才被允許在她的樹下設立商店。 她七年來都這麼做, 且她一直有拿收據。 她都有做記錄。 我們看到的並不是邊緣的、 弱勢的、 脆弱的非洲路邊女商人──不是。 我們看到的是數年來 都保有銷售記錄的人; 她有完整的零售生態系統,包括: 來自烏干達的回收存貨零售商, 用以進貨的手推車, 以及晚上收攤後來收款的 行動貨幣代理人。 猜猜看泰瑞西雅 每個月在存貨上平均花多少錢? 也就是她花多少錢 從奈洛比買進新的衣服? $1,500 美金。 換算出來是每年投資 美金兩萬元在貿易商品 以及服務上。 這就是泰瑞西雅, 隱形人, 隱藏的中間部份。
And she's only the first rung of the small entrepreneurs, the micro-businesses that can be found in these market towns. At least in the larger Malaba border, she's at the first rung. The people further up the value chain are easily running three lines of business, investing 2,500 to 3,000 US dollars every month. So the problem turned out that it wasn't the criminalization; you can't really criminalize someone you're charging receipts from. It's the lack of recognition of their skilled occupations. The bank systems and structures have no means to recognize them as micro-businesses, much less the fact that, you know, her tree doesn't have a forwarding address.
她只是這些市場小鎮中找得到的 小型創業家、微企業的第一線而已。 至少她在更大的馬拉布邊境是第一線。 在價值鏈更上方的人 輕易就能經營三種行業, 每月投資 $2,500~$3,000 美金。 結果發現了問題並不在於犯罪化; 你不能把你收了費 還給了收據的對象犯罪化。 問題在於缺乏 對於他們擅長之職業的認知。 銀行制度和結構 無法將它們認可為微企業, 更不用說,你們知道的, 她的樹沒有轉交地址。
So she's trapped in the middle. She's falling through the cracks of our assumptions. You know all those microloans to help African women traders? They're going to loan her 50 dollars or 100 dollars. What's she going to do with it? She spends 10 times that amount every month just on inventory -- we're not talking about the additional services or the support ecosystem. These are the ones who fit neither the policy stereotype of the low-skilled and the marginalized, nor the white-collar, salaried office worker or civil servant with a pension that the middle classes are allegedly composed of.
所以她被困在中間。 她落入我們假設間的裂縫。 你們知道有微貸款可以 協助非洲女商人吧? 這些貸款可以借她 $50 或 $100。 用這些錢她能做什麼? 她每個月的花費是十倍之多; 而且只是存貨的花費而已, 我們還沒談到額外的服務 或是支援生態系統。 這些人既不符合 低技能、被邊緣化的政策刻板印象, 也不是坐辦公桌的白領薪水階級 或領退休金的公職人員, 那些所謂的中產階級。
Instead, what we have here are the proto-SMEs these are the fertile seeds of businesses and enterprises that keep the engines running. They put food on your table. Even here in this hotel, the invisible ones -- the butchers, the bakers the candlestick makers -- they make the machines that make your french fries and they make your beds. These are the invisible businesswomen trading across borders, all on the side of the road, and so they're invisible to data gatherers. And they're mashed together with the vast informal sector that doesn't bother to distinguish between smugglers and tax evaders and those running illegal whatnot, and the ladies who trade, and who put food on the table and send their kids to university.
我們有的反而是中小型企業的雛形, 是富饒的公司、企業種子, 它們能保持經濟的引擎運作, 讓你能溫飽。 即使在這個飯店中,隱形人── 屠夫、麵包師、做蠟燭的人── 他們製做你的炸薯條機器、 製做你的床。 她們是隱形的女商人,做跨境貿易, 都在路邊做生意, 所以對於資料收集者而言 他們是隱形的。 而他們被算在廣大的 非正式部門當中, 這個部門不願花心力去 把走私者、避稅者、 非法經營者, 與做貿易的女子、 為家計和送孩子上大學 而工作的女子給區別開來。
So that's really what I'm asking here. That's all that we need to start by doing. Can we start by recognizing the skills, the occupations? We could transform the informal economy by beginning with this recognition and then designing the customized doorways for them to enter or integrate with the formal, with the global, with the entire system.
所以,這是我在此要請求的。 我們需要開始有所行動。 我們能否從認可 這些技能、職業開始? 從認可開始, 我們能轉換非正式經濟, 接著設計出客製化的門徑讓他們進入, 或和正式經濟、 全球經濟、 整個系統做整合。
Thank you, ladies and gentlemen.
各位先生女士,謝謝你們。
(Applause)
(掌聲)