I am a capitalist, and after a 30-year career in capitalism spanning three dozen companies, generating tens of billions of dollars in market value, I'm not just in the top one percent, I'm in the top .01 percent of all earners. Today, I have come to share the secrets of our success, because rich capitalists like me have never been richer. So the question is, how do we do it? How do we manage to grab an ever-increasing share of the economic pie every year? Is it that rich people are smarter than we were 30 years ago? Is it that we're working harder than we once did? Are we taller, better looking?
Ja sam kapitalist i nakon tridesetogodišnje karijere u kapitalizmu koja obuhvaća preko trideset kompanija, generirajući tržišnu vrijednost od desetina milijardi dolara, ne samo da sam u gornjih jedan posto, ja sam u gornjih 0,01 posto svih onih koji zarađuju. Danas sam došao podijeliti tajne našeg uspjeha jer bogati kapitalisti poput mene nikada nisu bili bogatiji. Dakle, pitanje je, kako mi to radimo? Kako uspijevamo prigrabiti sve veći dio ekonomskog kolača svake godine? Jesu li bogati ljudi pametniji no što smo mi bili prije 30 godina? Radimo li mi napornije no što smo prije? Jesmo li viši, ljepši?
Sadly, no. It all comes down to just one thing: economics. Because, here's the dirty secret. There was a time in which the economics profession worked in the public interest, but in the neoliberal era, today, they work only for big corporations and billionaires, and that is creating a little bit of a problem. We could choose to enact economic policies that raise taxes on the rich, regulate powerful corporations or raise wages for workers. We have done it before. But neoliberal economists would warn that all of these policies would be a terrible mistake, because raising taxes always kills economic growth, and any form of government regulation is inefficient, and raising wages always kills jobs. Well, as a consequence of that thinking, over the last 30 years, in the USA alone, the top one percent has grown 21 trillion dollars richer while the bottom 50 percent have grown 900 billion dollars poorer, a pattern of widening inequality that has largely repeated itself across the world. And yet, as middle class families struggle to get by on wages that have not budged in about 40 years, neoliberal economists continue to warn that the only reasonable response to the painful dislocations of austerity and globalization is even more austerity and globalization.
Nažalost, ne. Sve se to svodi na samo jednu stvar: ekonomiju. Jer u ovome je prljava tajna: postojalo je vrijeme u kojem je ekonomska profesija radila u javnom interesu, za sve, ali u neoliberalnoj eri, danas, oni rade samo za velike korporacije i milijardere, i to stvara mali problem. Mogli bismo se odlučiti za provođenje ekonomskih politika kojima se povećavaju porezi za bogate, reguliraju moćne korporacije ili povećavaju plaće radnicima. To smo već radili. Ali neoliberalni ekonomist bi upozorio da bi sve takve mjere bile užasna greška jer povećanje poreza uvijek ubija ekonomski rast, a bilo koji oblik vladine regulacije je neučinkovit, a povećanje plaća uvijek ubija poslove. Kao posljedica takvog razmišljanja, tijekom proteklih 30 godina, samo u Sjedinjenim Državama, gornjih jedan posto postalo je bogatije za 21 bilijun dolara, dok je donjih 50 posto postalo siromašnije za 900 milijardi dolara, obrazac rastuće nejednakosti koji se u velikoj mjeri ponavlja diljem svijeta. A ipak, dok se obitelji srednje klase bore za preživljavanje s plaćama koje se nisu pomakle otprilike 40 godina, neoliberalni ekonomisti i dalje upozoravaju da je jedini razuman odgovor na bolne poremećaje uzrokovane štednjom i globalizacijom, još više štednje i globalizacije.
So, what is a society to do? Well, it's super clear to me what we need to do. We need a new economics. So, economics has been described as the dismal science, and for good reason, because as much as it is taught today, it isn't a science at all, in spite of all of the dazzling mathematics. In fact, a growing number of academics and practitioners have concluded that neoliberal economic theory is dangerously wrong and that today's growing crises of rising inequality and growing political instability are the direct result of decades of bad economic theory. What we now know is that the economics that made me so rich isn't just wrong, it's backwards, because it turns out it isn't capital that creates economic growth, it's people; and it isn't self-interest that promotes the public good, it's reciprocity; and it isn't competition that produces our prosperity, it's cooperation. What we can now see is that an economics that is neither just nor inclusive can never sustain the high levels of social cooperation necessary to enable a modern society to thrive.
Pa što da radi društvo? Meni je savršeno jasno što bismo trebali činiti. Potrebna nam je nova ekonomija. Dakle, ekonomija se opisuje kao turobna znanost, i to ne bez razloga, jer kako se danas predaje, to uopće nije znanost, unatoč svoj blistavoj matematici. Ustvari, sve veći broj akademika i praktičara zaključilo je da je neoliberalna ekonomija opasno pogrešna i da su današnja rastuća kriza sve veće nejednakosti i rastuća politička nestabilnost direktna posljedica više desetljeća loše ekonomske teorije. Ono što danas znamo je da ekonomija koja je mene učinila tako bogatim nije samo pogrešna, ona je naopaka jer se pokazuje da nije kapital taj koji stvara ekonomski rast, to su ljudi; i nije samoljublje ono što promiče javno dobro, to je reciprocitet; i nije natjecanje to što proizvodi naš napredak, to je suradnja. Danas možemo vidjeti da ekonomija, koja nije ni pravedna niti uključiva, nikada ne može održati visoku razinu društvene suradnje nužne za procvat modernog društva.
So where did we go wrong? Well, it turns out that it's become painfully obvious that the fundamental assumptions that undergird neoliberal economic theory are just objectively false, and so today first I want to take you through some of those mistaken assumptions and then after describe where the science suggests prosperity actually comes from.
Pa gdje smo pogriješili? Pokazuje se da je postalo bolno očito da su temeljne pretpostavke koje podupiru neoliberalnu ekonomsku teoriju jednostavno objektivno netočne. Stoga bih vas danas prvo želio provesti kroz neke od tih pogrešnih pretpostavki i nakon toga opisati odakle napredak zapravo dolazi, po viđenju znanosti.
So, neoliberal economic assumption number one is that the market is an efficient equilibrium system, which basically means that if one thing in the economy, like wages, goes up, another thing in the economy, like jobs, must go down. So for example, in Seattle, where I live, when in 2014 we passed our nation's first 15 dollar minimum wage, the neoliberals freaked out over their precious equilibrium. "If you raise the price of labor," they warned, "businesses will purchase less of it. Thousands of low-wage workers will lose their jobs. The restaurants will close." Except ... they didn't. The unemployment rate fell dramatically. The restaurant business in Seattle boomed. Why? Because there is no equilibrium. Because raising wages doesn't kill jobs, it creates them; because, for instance, when restaurant owners are suddenly required to pay restaurant workers enough so that now even they can afford to eat in restaurants, it doesn't shrink the restaurant business, it grows it, obviously.
Dakle, prva neoliberalna ekonomska pretpostavka je da je tržište učinkoviti ravnotežni sustav, što u osnovi znači da ako jedna stvar u ekonomiji, poput plaća, raste, druga stvar u ekonomiji, poput poslova, mora opadati. Tako, na primjer, u Seattlu, gdje ja živim, kad smo 2014. godine prvi u zemlji uveli minimalnu satnicu od 15 dolara, neoliberali su se izbezumili zbog svoje dragocjene ravnoteže. "Ako podignete cijenu rada," upozorili su, "biznis će ga manje kupovati. Tisuće nisko plaćenih radnika izgubit će posao. Restorani će se zatvoriti." Osim ... što se nisu. Stopa nezaposlenosti dramatično je pala. Ugostiteljski biznis u Seattlu je procvao. Zašto? Zato jer ne postoji ravnoteža. Jer povišenje plaća ne ubija poslove, već ih stvara; jer, na primjer, kad se od vlasnika restorana odjednom zahtijeva da dovoljno plaćaju svoje radnike, tako da si sada čak i radnici mogu priuštiti da jedu u restoranima, time se ne smanjuje posao restorana, povećava se, očito.
(Applause)
(Pljesak)
Thank you.
Hvala.
The second assumption is that the price of something is always equal to its value, which basically means that if you earn 50,000 dollars a year and I earn 50 million dollars a year, that's because I produce a thousand times as much value as you. Now, it will not surprise you to learn that this is a very comforting assumption if you're a CEO paying yourself 50 million dollars a year but paying your workers poverty wages. But please, take it from somebody who has run dozens of businesses: this is nonsense. People are not paid what they are worth. They are paid what they have the power to negotiate, and wages' falling share of GDP is not because workers have become less productive but because employers have become more powerful. And --
Druga pretpostavka je da je cijena nečega uvijek jednaka vrijednosti toga, što u osnovi znači da ako vi zaradite 50 tisuća dolara godišnje, a ja zaradim 50 milijuna dolara godišnje, to je zato jer ja proizvodim tisuću puta veću vrijednost od vas. Sada, neće vas iznenaditi da čujete da je to vrlo ohrabrujuća pretpostavka ako ste direktor koji sebi isplaćuje 50 milijuna dolara godišnje, a svojim radnicima plaća minimalni dohodak. No, molim vas, vjerujte nekome tko je vodio desetine firmi: to je besmislica. Ljudi nisu plaćeni koliko vrijede. Plaćeni su onoliko koliko uspiju postići pregovaranjem. A smanjenje dijela BDP-a koji se odnosi na plaće ne događa se zato jer su radnici postali manje produktivni, već zato jer su poslodavci postali moćniji. I --
(Applause)
(Pljesak)
And by pretending that the giant imbalance in power between capital and labor doesn't exist, neoliberal economic theory became essentially a protection racket for the rich.
A pretvarajući se da ogromna neravnoteža između snaga kapitala i rada ne postoji, neoliberalna ekonomska teorija postala je u suštini zaštitni reket za bogate.
The third assumption, and by far the most pernicious, is a behavioral model that describes human beings as something called "homo economicus," which basically means that we are all perfectly selfish, perfectly rational and relentlessly self-maximizing. But just ask yourselves, is it plausible that every single time for your entire life, when you did something nice for somebody else, all you were doing was maximizing your own utility? Is it plausible that when a soldier jumps on a grenade to defend fellow soldiers, they're just promoting their narrow self-interest? If you think that's nuts, contrary to any reasonable moral intuition, that's because it is and, according to the latest science, not true. But it is this behavioral model which is at the cold, cruel heart of neoliberal economics, and it is as morally corrosive as it is scientifically wrong because, if we accept at face value that humans are fundamentally selfish, and then we look around the world at all of the unambiguous prosperity in it, then it follows logically, then it must be true by definition, that billions of individual acts of selfishness magically transubstantiate into prosperity and the common good. If we humans are merely selfish maximizers, then selfishness is the cause of our prosperity. Under this economic logic, greed is good, widening inequality is efficient, and the only purpose of the corporation can be to enrich shareholders, because to do otherwise would be to slow economic growth and harm the economy overall. And it is this gospel of selfishness which forms the ideological cornerstone of neoliberal economics, a way of thinking which has produced economic policies which have enabled me and my rich buddies in the top one percent to grab virtually all of the benefits of growth over the last 40 years.
Treća pretpostavka, i daleko najopasnija, je bihevioristički model koji ljudska bića opisuje kao nešto zvano "homo economicus", što u osnovi znači da smo svi mi savršeno sebični, savršeno racionalni i neumoljivo usmjereni na povećanje vlastitog profita. No, samo se upitajte, je li moguće da je baš svaki puta tijekom cijelog svog života, kada ste nekome učinili nešto lijepo, bilo to samo radi maksimiziranja vlastite koristi? Je li moguće da kada vojnik skače na granatu da bi obranio svoje suborce, on samo promiče svoje usko samoljublje? Ako mislite da je to ludost, suprotno svakoj razumnoj moralnoj intuiciji, to je zato jer to, prema najnovijoj znanosti, nije istina. No to je bihevioralni model koji je u hladnom, okrutnom srcu neoliberalne ekonomije i on je jednako moralno korozivan koliko je i znanstveno netočan jer, ako prihvatimo kao neupitno da su ljudi u suštini sebični, i pogledamo naokolo po svijetu na sav nedvosmislen napredak u njemu, onda logički slijedi da to mora biti istina po definiciji, da se milijuni pojedinačnih nesebičnih djela nekim čudom preobražavaju u napredak i zajedničko dobro. Ako smo mi ljudi tek sebični maksimizatori, onda je sebičnost uzrok našeg napretka. Po toj ekonomskoj logici, pohlepa je dobra, povećanje nejednakosti je efikasno, a jedina svrha korporacije može biti bogaćenje dioničara, jer raditi drugačije značilo bi usporavanje ekonomskog rasta i nanošenje štete cjelokupnoj ekonomiji. I upravo je to evanđelje sebičnosti ono što čini ideološki kamen temeljac neoliberalne ekonomije, način razmišljanja koji je proizveo ekonomsku politiku, koja je omogućila meni i mojim bogatim prijateljima u gornjih jedan posto da ugrabimo praktički sve beneficije rasta tijekom zadnjih 40 godina.
But, if instead we accept the latest empirical research, real science, which correctly describes human beings as highly cooperative, reciprocal and intuitively moral creatures, then it follows logically that it must be cooperation and not selfishness that is the cause of our prosperity, and it isn't our self-interest but rather our inherent reciprocity that is humanity's economic superpower.
Ali, ako umjesto toga prihvatimo najnovije empiričko istraživanje, stvarnu znanost, koje ispravno ljudska bića opisuje kao visoko kooperativna, recipročna i intuitivno moralna stvorenja, onda iz toga logički slijedi da mora da je suradnja, a ne sebičnost, uzrok našeg napretka i nije naše samoljublje, već prije naša urođena uzajamnost, ono u čemu je ekonomska super-snaga čovječanstva.
So at the heart of this new economics is a story about ourselves that grants us permission to be our best selves, and, unlike the old economics, this is a story that is virtuous and also has the virtue of being true.
U srcu te nove ekonomije je priča o nama koja nam daje dozvolu da budemo najbolji što možemo biti, i, za razliku od stare ekonomije, to je priča koja je čestita i također ima tu vrlinu da je istinita.
Now, I want to emphasize that this new economics is not something I have personally imagined or invented. Its theories and models are being developed and refined in universities around the world building on some of the best new research in economics, complexity theory, evolutionary theory, psychology, anthropology and other disciplines. And although this new economics does not yet have its own textbook or even a commonly agreed upon name, in broad strokes its explanation of where prosperity comes from goes something like this.
Sada, želim naglasiti da ta nova ekonomija nije nešto što sam ja osobno smislio ili izumio. Ta teorija i modeli razvijani su i razrađivani na sveučilištima diljem svijeta, nadograđujući se na neke od najboljih istraživanja u ekonomiji, teoriji složenosti, teoriji evolucije, psihologiji, antropologiji i drugim disciplinama. Pa iako ta nova ekonomija još uvijek nema svoj udžbenik, čak ni zajednički prihvaćeno ime, u širokim potezima njeno objašnjenje o tome odakle dolazi napredak, ide otprilike ovako:
So, market capitalism is an evolutionary system in which prosperity emerges through a positive feedback loop between increasing amounts of innovation and increasing amounts of consumer demand. Innovation is the process by which we solve human problems, consumer demand is the mechanism through which the market selects for useful innovations, and as we solve more problems, we become more prosperous. But as we become more prosperous, our problems and solutions become more complex, and this increasing technical complexity requires ever higher levels of social and economic cooperation in order to produce the more highly specialized products that define a modern economy.
dakle, tržišni kapitalizam je evolucijski sustav u kojem se napredak pojavljuje kroz pozitivnu povratnu spregu rastuće količine inovacija i rastuće količine potražnje potrošača. Inovacija je proces kojim rješavamo ljudske probleme, potražnja potrošača je mehanizam putem koje tržište odabire korisne inovacije, i rješavajući sve više problema mi postajemo sve napredniji. No, kako postajemo sve napredniji, naši problemi i rješenja postaju složeniji, a ta rastuća tehnička složenost zahtijeva sve veći stupanj društvene i ekonomske kooperacije kako bi se proizvelo više visoko specijaliziranih proizvoda koji definiraju modernu ekonomiju.
Now, the old economics is correct, of course, that competition plays a crucial role in how markets work, but what it fails to see is that it is largely a competition between highly cooperative groups -- competition between firms, competition between networks of firms, competition between nations -- and anyone who has ever run a successful business knows that building a cooperative team by including the talents of everyone is almost always a better strategy than just a bunch of selfish jerks.
Međutim, stara ekonomija je u pravu, naravno, natjecanje igra ključnu ulogu u funkcioniranju tržišta, ali ono što propušta uvidjeti je da je to uglavnom natjecanje između visoko kooperativnih grupa -- natjecanje između poduzeća, natjecanje između mreža poduzeća, natjecanje između naroda -- a svatko tko je ikada vodio uspješno poslovanje zna da je izgradnja kooperativnog tima uključivanjem talenata svih članova gotovo uvijek bolja strategija nego tek gomila sebičnih kretena.
So how do we leave neoliberalism behind and build a more sustainable, more prosperous and more equitable society? The new economics suggests just five rules of thumb.
Pa kako ostaviti neoliberalizam iza sebe i izgraditi održivije, naprednije i pravednije društvo? Nova ekonomija predlaže tek pet općih pravila.
First is that successful economies are not jungles, they're gardens, which is to say that markets, like gardens, must be tended, that the market is the greatest social technology ever invented for solving human problems, but unconstrained by social norms or democratic regulation, markets inevitably create more problems than they solve. Climate change, the great financial crisis of 2008 are two easy examples.
Prvo, da uspješne ekonomije nisu džungle, one su vrtovi, što će reći da tržišta, poput vrtova, treba njegovati, da je tržište najveća društvena tehnologija ikada izumljena za rješavanje ljudskih problema, ali nezauzdana društvenim normama ili demokratskom regulacijom, tržišta neizbježno stvaraju više problema no što ih rješavaju. Klimatske promjene i velika financijska kriza 2008. godine dva su jednostavna primjera.
The second rule is that inclusion creates economic growth. So the neoliberal idea that inclusion is this fancy luxury to be afforded if and when we have growth is both wrong and backwards. The economy is people. Including more people in more ways is what causes economic growth in market economies.
Drugo pravilo je da inkluzija stvara ekonomski rast. Stoga je neoliberalna ideja da je inkluzija pomodni luksuz koji si možemo priuštiti ako i kada imamo rast, istovremeno pogrešna i nazadna. Ekonomija su ljudi. Uključivanje više ljudi na više načina jest ono što uzrokuje ekonomski rast u tržišnim ekonomijama.
The third principle is the purpose of the corporation is not merely to enrich shareholders. The greatest grift in contemporary economic life is the neoliberal idea that the only purpose of the corporation and the only responsibility of executives is to enrich themselves and shareholders. The new economics must and can insist that the purpose of the corporation is to improve the welfare of all stakeholders: customers, workers, community and shareholders alike.
Treći princip je da svrha korporacije nije samo bogaćenje dioničara. Najveća prijevara u suvremenom ekonomskom životu je neoliberalna ideja da je jedina svrha korporacije i jedina odgovornost rukovoditelja da obogate sebe i dioničare. Nova ekonomija mora i može inzistirati da je svrha korporacije poboljšanje blagostanja svih sudionika: klijenata, radnika, zajednice, kao i dioničara.
Rule four: greed is not good. Being rapacious doesn't make you a capitalist, it makes you a sociopath.
Četvrto pravilo: pohlepa nije dobra. Biti gramziv ne čini vas kapitalistom, čini vas sociopatom.
(Laughter)
(Smijeh)
(Applause)
(Pljesak)
And in an economy as dependent upon cooperation at scale as ours, sociopathy is as bad for business as it is for society.
A u ekonomiji velikoj poput naše i toliko ovisnoj o suradnji, sociopatija je loša za posao kao i za društvo.
And fifth and finally, unlike the laws of physics, the laws of economics are a choice. Now, neoliberal economic theory has sold itself to you as unchangeable natural law, when in fact it's social norms and constructed narratives based on pseudoscience. If we truly want a more equitable, more prosperous and more sustainable economy, if we want high-functioning democracies and civil society, we must have a new economics.
I peto i posljednje, za razliku od zakona fizike, zakoni ekonomije su izbor. Neoliberalna ekonomska teorija vam se prodala kao nepromjenljivi prirodni zakon, dok su zapravo njene društvene norme i iskonstruirani narativi utemeljeni na pseudo-znanosti. Ako uistinu želimo pravedniju, napredniju i održiviju ekonomiju, ako želimo dobro funkcionirajuće demokracije i civilno društvo, moramo imati novu ekonomiju.
And here's the good news: if we want a new economics, all we have to do is choose to have it.
A evo i dobre vijesti: ako želimo novu ekonomiju, sve što moramo učiniti je odabrati da je imamo.
Thank you.
Hvala.
(Applause)
(Pljesak)
Moderator: So Nick, I'm sure you get this question a lot. If you're so unhappy with the economic system, why not just give all your money away and join the 99 percent?
Moderator: Nick, sigurna sam da ti često postavljaju ovo pitanje. Ako si toliko nezadovoljan ekonomskim sustavom, zašto jednostavno ne daš sav svoj novac i pridružiš se 99 posto?
Nick Hanauer: Yeah, no, yes, right. You get that a lot. You get that a lot. "If you care so much about taxes, why don't you pay more, and if you care so much about wages, why don't you pay more?" And I could do that. The problem is, it doesn't make that much difference, and I have discovered a strategy that works literally a hundred thousand times better --
Nick Hanauer: Da, ne, da, točno. Često to pitaju. "Ako ti je toliko stalo do poreza, zašto ne plaćaš više, a ako brineš zbog plaća, zašto ne plaćaš više?" I mogao bih to učiniti. Problem je što to ne čini veliku razliku, i ja sam otkrio strategiju koja doslovce funkcionira sto tisuća puta bolje.
Moderator: OK.
A ta je da svoj novac koristim za gradnju narativa i donošenje zakona
NH: which is to use my money to build narratives and to pass laws that will require all the other rich people to pay taxes and pay their workers better.
koji će zahtijevati od svih drugih bogatih ljudi da plaćaju porez i da bolje plaćaju svoje radnike.
(Applause)
(Pljesak)
And so, for example, the 15-dollar minimum wage that we cooked up has now affected 30 million workers. So that works better.
Tako, na primjer, minimalna nadnica od 15 dolara koju smo skuhali danas ima utjecaj na 30 milijuna radnika. To, dakle, bolje funkcionira.
Moderator: That's great. If you change your mind, we'll find some takers for you.
Moderator: Sjajno. Ako se predomislite, naći ćemo neke primatelje za vas.
NH: OK. Thank you. Moderator: Thank you very much.
NH: OK. Hvala. Moderator: Puno vam hvala.