I want to talk today about -- I've been asked to take the long view, and I'm going to tell you what I think are the three biggest problems for humanity from this long point of view. Some of these have already been touched upon by other speakers, which is encouraging. It seems that there's not just one person who thinks that these problems are important.
Želim vam danas nešto reći o – rekli su mi da razmišljam o utjecajima na budućnost i reći ću vam koji su to, po mom mišljenju najveći problemi čovječanstva gledano na način kako će to utjecati na budućnost. Nekih su se od ovih problema već prije dotakli drugi govornici, što je ohrabrujuće. Čini se kako ne misli samo jedna osoba da su ovi problemi važni.
The first is -- death is a big problem. If you look at the statistics, the odds are not very favorable to us. So far, most people who have lived have also died. Roughly 90 percent of everybody who has been alive has died by now. So the annual death rate adds up to 150,000 -- sorry, the daily death rate -- 150,000 people per day, which is a huge number by any standard. The annual death rate, then, becomes 56 million. If we just look at the single, biggest cause of death -- aging -- it accounts for roughly two-thirds of all human people who die. That adds up to an annual death toll of greater than the population of Canada. Sometimes, we don't see a problem because either it's too familiar or it's too big. Can't see it because it's too big. I think death might be both too familiar and too big for most people to see it as a problem.
Prvi je – smrt je veliki problem. Ako pogledate statistiku, izgledi nam nisu baš povoljni. Do sada, većina ljudi koji su živjeli, također su i umrli. Oko 90% svih koji su ikada živjeli, do sada su umrli. Godišnja stopa smrtnosti doseže 150 000 – oprostite, dnevni broj umrlih -150 000 ljudi dnevno, što je ogroman broj. Godišnja stopa smrti, tako iznosi, 56 milijuna ljudi. Ako promotrimo samo jedan, najveći uzrok smrti – starenje – ono je odgovorno za otprilike dvije trećine umrlih. To dovodi do godišnjeg gubitka ljudi, čiji je broj veći od ukupne populacije Kanade. Ponekad problem ne vidimo, ili jer ga smatramo previše svakodnevnim, ili zato što je prevelik. Ne možemo ga vidjeti jer je prevelik. Smatram da je smrt vjerojatno oboje – i previše blizak, ali i previše velik problem.
Once you think about it, you see this is not statistical points; these are -- let's see, how far have I talked? I've talked for three minutes. So that would be, roughly, 324 people have died since I've begun speaking. People like -- it's roughly the population in this room has just died. Now, the human cost of that is obvious, once you start to think about it -- the suffering, the loss -- it's also, economically, enormously wasteful. I just look at the information, and knowledge, and experience that is lost due to natural causes of death in general, and aging, in particular.
Kada jednom promislite o tome, vidjet ćete da ga se ne može razmatrati sa statističkog gledišta. To su - da vidimo, koliko dugo već pričam? Govorim tri minute. Otprilike je 324 ljudi umrlo od kada sam ja počeo govoriti. Ljudi kao - to je otprilike populacija velika kao broj vas koji se nalazite u ovoj sobi. Onda, ljudski gubitak zbog smrti je očigledan. Kada jednom počnete razmišljati o tome - patnja, gubitak - no, to je također, ekonomski gledano, izuzetno razorno. Pogledajmo samo koliko informacija, znanja i iskustva se izgubi zbog prirodnih uzroka smrti, posebice starenja.
Suppose we approximated one person with one book? Now, of course, this is an underestimation. A person's lifetime of learning and experience is a lot more than you could put into a single book. But let's suppose we did this. 52 million people die of natural causes each year corresponds, then, to 52 million volumes destroyed. Library of Congress holds 18 million volumes. We are upset about the burning of the Library of Alexandria. It's one of the great cultural tragedies that we remember, even today. But this is the equivalent of three Libraries of Congress -- burnt down, forever lost -- each year.
Pretpostavimo da izjednačimo jednu osobu s jednom knjigom. Naravno, tu sam podcijenio potencijal ljudi. Cjeloživotno učenje i iskustva jedne osobe su nešto mnogo više nego što se može staviti u jednu jedinu knjigu. No, pretpostavimo da smo to učinili. 52 milijuna ljudi koji umiru prirodnom smrću svake godine, odgovaraju brojci od 52 milijuna uništenih svezaka. Knjižnica Kongresa posjeduje 18 milijuna svezaka. Uznemireni smo zbog spaljivanja Aleksandrijske knjižnice, to je jedna od najvećih kulturnih tragedija koje pamtimo čak i dan danas. No, to možemo izjednačiti s 3 spaljene knjižnice Kongresa, zauvijek izgubljene, svake godine.
So that's the first big problem. And I wish Godspeed to Aubrey de Grey, and other people like him, to try to do something about this as soon as possible. Existential risk -- the second big problem. Existential risk is a threat to human survival, or to the long-term potential of our species. Now, why do I say that this is a big problem? Well, let's first look at the probability -- and this is very, very difficult to estimate -- but there have been only four studies on this in recent years, which is surprising. You would think that it would be of some interest to try to find out more about this given that the stakes are so big, but it's a very neglected area.
To je, dakle, prvi veliki problem. I želim svu sreću Aubrey de Grey i drugim ljudima poput njega u pokušaju što skorijeg rješavanja tog problema. Egzistencijalni rizik – drugi veliki problem. Egzistencijalni rizik je prijetnja za ljudski opstanak ili dugoročno za potencijal naše vrste. E, sada.. zašto mislim da je to veliki problem? Dakle, pogledajmo prvo na vjerojatnost – što je vrlo teško za procijeniti - u posljednjih nekoliko godina napravljene su samo četiri studije o tome, što je iznenađujuće. Vjerojatno biste pomislili da bi bilo od općeg interesa saznati nešto o tome s obzirom da je to tako bitno, no ovo je zaista zapravo vrlo zanemareno područje.
But there have been four studies -- one by John Lesley, wrote a book on this. He estimated a probability that we will fail to survive the current century: 50 percent. Similarly, the Astronomer Royal, whom we heard speak yesterday, also has a 50 percent probability estimate. Another author doesn't give any numerical estimate, but says the probability is significant that it will fail. I wrote a long paper on this. I said assigning a less than 20 percent probability would be a mistake in light of the current evidence we have. Now, the exact figures here, we should take with a big grain of salt, but there seems to be a consensus that the risk is substantial. Everybody who has looked at this and studied it agrees.
No, ipak napravljene su četiri studije – jednu je vodio John Lesley, napisao je i knjigu na tu temu. Po njegovoj je procjeni vjerojatnost da će nam vrsta biti iskorijenjena tijekom ovog stoljeća – 50 posto. Slično tome, astronom Royal, kojega smo imali priliku jučer poslušati, također je procijenio da je vjerojatnost za preživljavanje 50 posto. Još jedan autor, ne daje nikakve brojčane procjene, no ističe da je vjerojatnost da nam vrsta neće opstati značajna. Napisao sam dugačak članak na tu temu. Napisao sam da bi procjenjivanje na manje od 20 posto vjerojatnosti bila pogrješka s obzirom na sve dosadašnje dokaze koje imamo. E sada.. točne brojke koje se navode treba uzeti s velikom rezervom, no čini se da se ipak mnogo ljudi slaže oko toga kako je rizik značajan. Svatko tko se time bavio i proučavao taj problem se slaže.
Now, if we think about what just reducing the probability of human extinction by just one percentage point -- not very much -- so that's equivalent to 60 million lives saved, if we just count the currently living people, the current generation. Now one percent of six billion people is equivalent to 60 million. So that's a large number. If we were to take into account future generations that will never come into existence if we blow ourselves up, then the figure becomes astronomical. If we could eventually colonize a chunk of the universe -- the Virgo supercluster -- maybe it will take us 100 million years to get there, but if we go extinct we never will. Then, even a one percentage point reduction in the extinction risk could be equivalent to this astronomical number -- 10 to the power of 32.
No, ako samo smislimo nešto što bi smanjilo vjerojatnost izumiranja ljudske vrste za samo jedan posto – ne baš puno – to bi bilo jednako kao 60 milijuna spašenih života, i to ako računamo samo ljude koji trenutno žive. Dakle, jedan posto od šest milijardi ljudi iznosi 60 milijuna ljudi. To je, znači, veliki broj. Kada bismo uzeli u obzir buduće generacije koje nikada neće biti rođene ako sami sebe uništimo, brojka bi bila astronomski visoka. Kada bismo, recimo, mogli kolonizirati komad svemira – primjerice Virgo supercluster – možda će nam trebati 100 milijuna godina da dođemo do tamo, ali ako izumremo, nikada nećemo uspjeti. Tako da bi čak i smanjenje rizika izumiranja od samo jednog postotka bila jednaka astronomski visokom broju ljudi – čak i 10 na trideset drugu.
So if you take into account future generations as much as our own, every other moral imperative of philanthropic cost just becomes irrelevant. The only thing you should focus on would be to reduce existential risk because even the tiniest decrease in existential risk would just overwhelm any other benefit you could hope to achieve. And even if you just look at the current people, and ignore the potential that would be lost if we went extinct, it should still have a high priority. Now, let me spend the rest of my time on the third big problem, because it's more subtle and perhaps difficult to grasp. Think about some time in your life -- some people might never have experienced it -- but some people, there are just those moments that you have experienced where life was fantastic.
Dakle, ako se uzmu u obzir buduće generacije, isto kao i naša postojeća, svaki drugi moralni imperativ ljudskog gubitka postaje nevažan. Jedina stvar na koju bi se trebali usredotočiti je smanjenje egzistencijalne opasnosti zato što bi čak i najmanje smanjenje rizika izumiranja bilo značajnije od bilo koje drugog humanog cilja kojega ste se nadali postići. Čak i kada biste zanemarili potencijal budućih generacija i samo mislili na ljude koji trenutno žive, opet bi ta zadaća imala prioritet. Dopustite mi da posvetim ostatak vremena koje imam trećem velikom problemu – zato što nije toliko očit, i možda je malo teži za shvatiti. Razmislite malo o nekom razdoblju svojega života – neki ljudi možda nikada nisu doživjeli takvo što – no neki ljudi su doživjeli razdoblje u kojemu je život jednostavno bio fantastičan.
It might have been at the moment of some great, creative inspiration you might have had when you just entered this flow stage. Or when you understood something you had never done before. Or perhaps in the ecstasy of romantic love. Or an aesthetic experience -- a sunset or a great piece of art. Every once in a while we have these moments, and we realize just how good life can be when it's at its best. And you wonder, why can't it be like that all the time? You just want to cling onto this. And then, of course, it drifts back into ordinary life and the memory fades. And it's really difficult to recall, in a normal frame of mind, just how good life can be at its best. Or how bad it can be at its worst.
Tako ste se možda osjećali u razdoblju velike, kreativne inspiracije koju ste imali kada ste ušli u tu fazu života. Ili ste možda shvatili nešto novo, što vas je prosvijetlilo. Ili ste bili u ekstazi jake romantične ljubavi. Ili je to možda bio neki estetski doživljaj – zalazak sunca ili veliko umjetničko djelo. Uvijek kada proživljavamo iznova takve trenutke, shvatimo koliko život može biti divan kada je na svom vrhuncu. Pitate se zašto ne može biti takav cijelo vrijeme? Želite ga takvim zadržati. I onda se, naravno, vrati sve u svakodnevnicu i sjećanja na te divne trenutke blijede. I stvarno se nekada teško prisjetiti, u normalnim uvjetima, kako život može biti lijep kada je na vrhuncu. Ili kako može biti užasan kada je na dnu.
The third big problem is that life isn't usually as wonderful as it could be. I think that's a big, big problem. It's easy to say what we don't want. Here are a number of things that we don't want -- illness, involuntary death, unnecessary suffering, cruelty, stunted growth, memory loss, ignorance, absence of creativity. Suppose we fixed these things -- we did something about all of these. We were very successful. We got rid of all of these things. We might end up with something like this, which is -- I mean, it's a heck of a lot better than that. But is this really the best we can dream of? Is this the best we can do?
Treći veliki problem je što život većinom nije toliko dobar koliko bi mogao biti. Mislim da je to veliki, veliki problem. Lako nam je reći što ne želimo. Evo, samo nekoliko stvari koje ne želimo – bolest, neželjena smrt, nepotrebna patnja, okrutnost, poremećaj u razvoju, gubitak pamćenja, neznanje, nedostatak kreativnosti.. Pretpostavimo da te probleme riješimo – da smo učinili nešto protiv svega toga. I to vrlo uspješno. Da smo se riješili svih ovih stvari. Mogli bismo završiti s tako nečim. Što je, mislim, puno bolje od onoga. No, je li to stvarno ono najbolje što možemo zamisliti? Je li to najbolje što možemo postići?
Or is it possible to find something a little bit more inspiring to work towards? And if we think about this, I think it's very clear that there are ways in which we could change things, not just by eliminating negatives, but adding positives. On my wish list, at least, would be: much longer, healthier lives, greater subjective well-being, enhanced cognitive capacities, more knowledge and understanding, unlimited opportunity for personal growth beyond our current biological limits, better relationships, an unbounded potential for spiritual, moral and intellectual development.
Ili, je li moguće naći neku veću inspiraciju prema kojoj treba težiti? I, ako promislimo o tome, mislim da je vrlo jasno da postoje načini pomoću kojih to možemo promijeniti, ne samo eliminirajući stvari koje ne želimo da nam se dogode u životu, nego i pokušavajući ostvariti ono što želimo proživjeti. Na mojoj bi listi želja bilo: mnogo duži, zdraviji životni vijek, više subjektivnog blagostanja, poboljšane kognitivne sposobnosti, više znanja i razumijevanja, neograničene mogućnosti za osobni razvoj iznad naših trenutačnih bioloških granica, bolji međuljudski odnosi, neograničen potencijal za duhovni, moralni i intelektualni razvoj.
If we want to achieve this, what, in the world, would have to change? And this is the answer -- we would have to change. Not just the world around us, but we, ourselves. Not just the way we think about the world, but the way we are -- our very biology. Human nature would have to change. Now, when we think about changing human nature, the first thing that comes to mind are these human modification technologies -- growth hormone therapy, cosmetic surgery, stimulants like Ritalin, Adderall, anti-depressants, anabolic steroids, artificial hearts. It's a pretty pathetic list. They do great things for a few people who suffer from some specific condition, but for most people, they don't really transform what it is to be human. And they also all seem a little bit -- most people have this instinct that, well, sure, there needs to be anti-depressants for the really depressed people. But there's a kind of queasiness that these are unnatural in some way.
Što se mora promijeniti u svijetu da bismo to postigli? Postoji odgovor – MI bismo se morali promijeniti. Ne samo svijet oko nas, nego mi, osobno. Ne samo način na koji razmišljamo o svijetu, nego ono što jesmo, ono što nas čini onim što jesmo – našu biologiju. Ljudska priroda bi se morala promijeniti. Dakle, kada razmišljamo o promjeni ljudske prirode, prva stvar koja nam pada na pamet su tehnologije poboljšanja ljudskih osobina – terapija hormonima rasta, estetska kirurgija, stimulansi poput Ritalina, Adderalla, antidepresiva, anaboličkih steroida, umjetno srce.. Prilično jadna lista. Sve što sam nabrojao – odlično pomaže nekolicini ljudi koji pate od nekih određenih stanja. No, za većinu ljudi, oni ne mijenjaju ono po čemu se osjećaju ljudima. I također se svi čine pomalo – većina ljudi posjeduje predrasude... mislim, naravno, antidepresivi su korisni i potrebni za vrlo depresivne ljude. No, postoji određeni osjećaj nelagode u svijesti ljudi prema tim lijekovima, jer su neprirodni.
It's worth recalling that there are a lot of other modification technologies and enhancement technologies that we use. We have skin enhancements, clothing. As far as I can see, all of you are users of this enhancement technology in this room, so that's a great thing. Mood modifiers have been used from time immemorial -- caffeine, alcohol, nicotine, immune system enhancement, vision enhancement, anesthetics -- we take that very much for granted, but just think about how great progress that is -- like, having an operation before anesthetics was not fun. Contraceptives, cosmetics and brain reprogramming techniques -- that sounds ominous,
No, dobro je podsjetiti se kako postoji još mnogo drugih načina kojima možemo poboljšati ili izmijeniti naše tjelesne predispozicije. Primjerice, kao 'poboljšanje' naše kože – odjeću. Koliko mogu vidjeti, svi ste vi u ovoj sobi korisnici odjeće, što je odlično. Za promjenu raspoloženja koriste se još od pamtivijeka – kofein, alkohol, nikotin, pripravci za poboljšanje imunološkog sustava, operacije očiju zbog boljeg vida, anestetici.. Većinu tih stvari uzimamo zdravo za gotovo – ali zamislite samo koliki je to bio velik napredak – jer, operacije prije uporabe anestetika, zaista nisu bile zabavne. Kontraceptivi, kozmetika, tehnike reprogramiranja mozga – to zvuči zloslutno.
but the distinction between what is a technology -- a gadget would be the archetype -- and other ways of changing and rewriting human nature is quite subtle. So if you think about what it means to learn arithmetic or to learn to read, you're actually, literally rewriting your own brain. You're changing the microstructure of your brain as you go along. So in a broad sense, we don't need to think about technology as only little gadgets, like these things here, but even institutions and techniques, psychological methods and so forth. Forms of organization can have a profound impact on human nature.
No, razlika između onoga što je tehnologija – naprava bi bila prauzor– i drugih načina mijenjanja ljudske prirode prilično je malena. Recimo, kada učite aritmetiku ili učite čitati, zapravo, doslovce, reprogramirate svoj vlastiti mozak. Mijenjate mikro-strukture svojega mozga. Tako je u širem smislu – ne moramo razmišljati o tehnologiji kao samo malom programčiću – kao ove stvari ovdje. No, čak i institucije i tehnike, psihološke metode i tako dalje. Oblici organizacije mogu imati dubok utjecaj na ljudsku prirodu.
Looking ahead, there is a range of technologies that are almost certain to be developed sooner or later. We are very ignorant about what the time scale for these things are, but they all are consistent with everything we know about physical laws, laws of chemistry, etc. It's possible to assume, setting aside a possibility of catastrophe, that sooner or later we will develop all of these. And even just a couple of these would be enough to transform the human condition.
Gledajući u budućnost – postoji cijeli niz tehnologija koje će se gotovo sigurno razviti prije ili kasnije. Ne znamo ni otprilike koliko će vremena do takvih otkrića proteći – to će biti u skladu sa svime što znamo o fizikalnim i kemijskim zakonima i tako dalje. Možemo pretpostaviti da ćemo, ako zanemarimo mogućnost da se dogodi neka katastrofa, prije ili kasnije te stvari razviti. Čak i samo nekoliko takvih izuma bili bi dovoljni za potpunu promjenu ljudskoga stanja.
So let's look at some of the dimensions of human nature that seem to leave room for improvement. Health span is a big and urgent thing, because if you're not alive, then all the other things will be to little avail. Intellectual capacity -- let's take that box, which falls into a lot of different sub-categories: memory, concentration, mental energy, intelligence, empathy. These are really great things. Part of the reason why we value these traits is that they make us better at competing with other people -- they're positional goods. But part of the reason -- and that's the reason why we have ethical ground for pursuing these -- is that they're also intrinsically valuable. It's just better to be able to understand more of the world around you and the people that you are communicating with, and to remember what you have learned. Modalities and special faculties. Now, the human mind is not a single unitary information processor, but it has a lot of different, special, evolved modules that do specific things for us. If you think about what we normally take as giving life a lot of its meaning -- music, humor, eroticism, spirituality, aesthetics, nurturing and caring, gossip, chatting with people --
Obratimo pozornost na neke dimenzije ljudske prirode koje ostavljaju prostora za njihovo poboljšanje. Zdravlje je bitna i hitna stavka – jer ako umrete, sve ostale stvari nisu baš korisne. Intelektualni kapacitet – uzmimo to kao primjer – sastoji se od mnogo pod-kategorija – pamćenje, koncentracija, mentalna energija, inteligencija, empatija. To su sve bitne stvari. Razlog zašto su nam ove vrijednosti tako bitne leži u tome što nas one čine boljima u usporedbi s drugim ljudima – određuju naš položaj u društvu. No, drugi je razlog – zbog kojega imamo etičku podlogu za produbljivanje ove teme – taj što je ovo također i urođeno vrijedno. Jednostavno je bolje ako možete shvatiti svijet oko sebe i ljude s kojima razgovarate i sjetiti se onoga što ste nekada učili. Načini i posebne sposobnosti. Dakle, ljudski um nije jedan jedinstveni informacijski procesor, sastoji se od mnogo različitih posebnih, razvijenih dijelova koji za nas obrađuju informacije. Uzmimo stvari za koje obično smatramo da čine život vrijednim – glazba, humor, erotika, duhovnost, estetika, odgoj i briga, trač, razgovor s ljudima...
all of these, very likely, are enabled by a special circuitry that we humans have, but that you could have another intelligent life form that lacks these. We're just lucky that we have the requisite neural machinery to process music and to appreciate it and enjoy it. All of these would enable, in principle -- be amenable to enhancement. Some people have a better musical ability and ability to appreciate music than others have. It's also interesting to think about what other things are -- so if these all enabled great values, why should we think that evolution has happened to provide us with all the modalities we would need to engage with other values that there might be?
Sve navedeno, vrlo vjerojatno, omogućuje određeni sklop koji mi ljudi posjedujemo, ali i to da bi mogli postojati drugi inteligentni oblici života kojima to nedostaje. Možemo se nazvati sretnicima jer imamo potreban živčani sklop koji nam omogućuje obradu zvuka i uživanje u glazbi. U načelu, sve to omogućuje dobru podlogu za poboljšanja. Neki ljudi imaju bolji smisao za glazbu od drugih. Također je zanimljivo zamisliti što bi bile druge stvari koje nam promiču – dakle, ako nam ovo sve omogućuje takve vrijednosti, zašto bismo mislili da nas je evolucija opskrbila sa svime što trebamo kako bismo se bavili drugim vrijednostima koje postoje?
Imagine a species that just didn't have this neural machinery for processing music. And they would just stare at us with bafflement when we spend time listening to a beautiful performance, like the one we just heard -- because of people making stupid movements, and they would be really irritated and wouldn't see what we were up to. But maybe they have another faculty, something else that would seem equally irrational to us, but they actually tap into some great possible value there. But we are just literally deaf to that kind of value. So we could think of adding on different, new sensory capacities and mental faculties. Bodily functionality and morphology and affective self-control. Greater subjective well-being. Be able to switch between relaxation and activity -- being able to go slow when you need to do that, and to speed up. Able to switch back and forth more easily would be a neat thing to be able to do -- easier to achieve the flow state, when you're totally immersed in something you are doing. Conscientiousness and sympathy. The ability to -- it's another interesting application that would have large social ramification, perhaps. If you could actually choose to preserve your romantic attachments to one person, undiminished through time, so that wouldn't have to -- love would never have to fade if you didn't want it to. That's probably not all that difficult. It might just be a simple hormone or something that could do this.
Zamislite vrste koje jednostavno nemaju živčani sklop za obradu glazbe. Samo bi nas zbunjeno promatrali dok provodimo vrijeme slušajući prekrasnu izvedbu, poput one koju smo malo prije čuli – zato što, dok slušamo glazbu, radimo glupe pokrete. Bili bi iritirani i ne bi shvaćali zašto to činimo. No, možda oni imaju neke druge sposobnosti, nešto što je jednako tako neshvatljivo za nas, čemu oni isto tako pridaju neku posebnu vrijednost. A mi smo doslovce gluhi za takvu vrstu podražaja. Mogli bismo pokušati dodati neke drukčije, nove senzorne kapacitete i mentalne sposobnosti. Tjelesne funkcije i morfologija i afektivna samokontrola. Subjektivno bolji život. Biti sposoban prebaciti se brzo između stanja opuštanja i aktivnosti – biti sposoban po potrebi usporiti ili ubrzati. Bilo bi odlično kada bi se tako mogli lakše prebacivati – kada bismo brzo mogli doći do stanja u kojemu smo u potpunosti mislima uronjeni u to što trenutno činimo. Svijest i naklonost. Sposobnost da.. – to je još jedna vrlo zanimljiva primjena mogućih novih tehnologija oko koje bi se u društvu mogla lomiti koplja. Kada biste zapravo mogli odlučiti zadržati romantične osjećaje za neku osobu, koji ne bi vremenom blijedili, tako da ljubav više nikad ne bi morala nestati ako to ne želite.. To sve vrlo vjerojatno nije tako komplicirano. Možda se jednostavno samo radi o jednom hormonu kojim bi se to moglo pospješiti.
It's been done in voles. You can engineer a prairie vole to become monogamous when it's naturally polygamous. It's just a single gene. Might be more complicated in humans, but perhaps not that much. This is the last picture that I want to -- now we've got to use the laser pointer. A possible mode of being here would be a way of life -- a way of being, experiencing, thinking, seeing, interacting with the world. Down here in this little corner, here, we have the little sub-space of this larger space that is accessible to human beings -- beings with our biological capacities. It's a part of the space that's accessible to animals; since we are animals, we are a subset of that.
To je već učinjeno kod voluharica. Inžinjeringom možete pospješiti da prerijska voluharica postane monogamna iako je po prirodi poligamna. U pitanju je samo jedan gen. Vjerojatno je kompliciranije kod ljudi, no možda i nije toliko koliko mislimo da jest. Ovo je zadnja slika koju želim... – dakle, pokazat ću vam laserom. Mogući oblik postojanja bi bio oblik života – način postojanja, doživljavanja, razmišljanja, viđenja i interakcije sa ostatkom svijeta. Ovdje dolje, u ovom malom kutu, ovdje, vidimo mali krug koji je dio ovog većeg kruga što prikazuje zapravo dio svijeta koji je pristupačan nama ljudima – stvorenjima s našim biološkim kapacitetom. Ovo je dio svijeta koji je pristupačan životinjama, budući da smo i mi životinje, naš je krug dio tog kruga.
And then you can imagine some enhancements of human capacities. There would be different modes of being you could experience if you were able to stay alive for, say, 200 years. Then you could live sorts of lives and accumulate wisdoms that are just not possible for humans as we currently are. So then, you move off to this larger sphere of "human +," and you could continue that process and eventually explore a lot of this larger space of possible modes of being.
Zamislite da poboljšamo ljudske biološke kapacitete. Toliko bismo toga različitog mogli proživjeti kada bismo, recimo, mogli živjeti 200 godina. Mogli bismo živjeti drukčijim životom – mogli bismo nakupiti mudrosti tijekom proživljenih godina, više nego što je to trenutno moguće prosječnom čovjeku. Tako bismo mogli doći do ove veće sfere – i tako nastaviti taj proces i istražiti velik dio ove najveće, nama potpuno nepoznate sfere života.
Now, why is that a good thing to do? Well, we know already that in this little human circle there, there are these enormously wonderful and worthwhile modes of being -- human life at its best is wonderful. We have no reason to believe that within this much, much larger space there would not also be extremely worthwhile modes of being, perhaps ones that would be way beyond our wildest ability even to imagine or dream about. And so, to fix this third problem, I think we need -- slowly, carefully, with ethical wisdom and constraint -- develop the means that enable us to go out in this larger space and explore it and find the great values that might hide there. Thanks.
Zašto bi to bilo dobro? Dakle, znamo već kako u ovom malom krugu – koji označava svijet pristupačan čovjeku – postoje nevjerojatno prekrasni trenutci u životu – život je prekrasan kada je na svom vrhuncu. Nemamo razloga ne vjerovati da u ovom mnogo većem prostoru postoji nešto što može nezamislivo poboljšati naš način života. Možda nešto što ne bismo mogli ni zamisliti.. I tako – da bismo mogli rješiti ovaj treći veliki problem, mislim da bismo trebali – polako, strogo, pažljivo i s etičkom mudrošću – razviti sredstva koja nam mogu omogućiti ulazak i istraživanje ovog velikog kruga. I tako istražiti vrijednosti koje se tamo možda kriju. Hvala.