I've been at MIT for 44 years. I went to TED I. There's only one other person here, I think, who did that. All the other TEDs -- and I went to them all, under Ricky's regime -- I talked about what the Media Lab was doing, which today has almost 500 people in it.
我在MIT待了44年 參加過第一屆TED 我想在場應該只有一位有同等資歷 在其他屆的演講中 -我從没缺席過TED- 我解釋了媒體實驗室的工作內容 實驗室現在大約有500名研究人員
And if you read the press, last week it actually said I quit the Media Lab. I didn't quit the Media Lab, I stepped down as chairman -- which was a kind of ridiculous title, but someone else has taken it on -- and one of the things you can do as a professor is you stay on as a professor. And I will now do for the rest of my life the One Laptop Per Child, which I've sort of been doing for a year and a half, anyway. So I'm going to tell you about this, use my 18 minutes to tell you why we're doing it, how we're doing it and then what we're doing. And at some point I'll even pass around what the $100 laptop might be like.
媒體上週說我已經退出實驗室 我實際上不是退出 只是卸下主席的職位 這頭銜有點可笑 不過已有人接任 當教授的好處之一 就是一日為教授 終生為教授 我下半輩子將獻給「一個孩子、一台筆電」 畢竟這是我已經推廣一年半的計畫 也是今天演講的主題 在這18分鐘內 我將告訴各位我的動機 計畫如何運作 以及現在的進度 等一下各位甚至有機會看看 100美元的筆電到底長什麼樣子
I was asked by Chris to talk about some of the big issues, and so I figured I'd start with the three that at least drove me to do this. And the first is pretty obvious. It's amazing when you meet a head of state, and you say, "What is your most precious natural resource?" They will not say "children" at first, and then when you say, "children," they will pretty quickly agree with you. And so that isn't very hard.
克里斯希望我分享幾個重要議題 因此我先講三個促成這個計畫的動機 第一個顯而易見 當你與一國元首會晤 你問他: 「貴國最珍貴的天然資源是什麼?」 他的第一個答案可能不是兒童 但你提出時 他們十之八九都贊同 (1. 兒童是最珍貴的天然資源) 所以要說服他們一點也不難
(Laughter)
(2. 消除貧困、戰爭、污染的良方是教育) 眾所皆知,要解決貧困國家的問題
Everybody agrees that whatever the solutions are to the big problems, they include education, sometimes can be just education and can never be without some element of education. So that's certainly part of it.
(3. 除了接受教導 還有別的學習途徑) 教育是必須 甚至是唯一的必須 要解決問題 或多或少必須依賴教育 所以提供教育當然是計畫目的之一
And the third is a little bit less obvious. And that is that we all in this room learned how to walk, how to talk, not by being taught how to talk, or taught how to walk, but by interacting with the world, by having certain results as a consequence of being able to ask for something, or being able to stand up and reach it. Whereas at about the age six, we were told to stop learning that way, and that all learning from then on would happen through teaching, whether it's people standing up, like I'm doing now, or a book, or something. But it was really through teaching. And one of the things in general that computers have provided to learning is that it now includes a kind of learning which is a little bit more like walking and talking, in the sense that a lot of it is driven by the learner himself or herself.
第三個動機比較不明顯 這跟所有人學會走路、說話的模式有關 沒人教我們如何說話或走路 但與外界互動後 自然就學會了 像是開口要求 物品就到了手裡 或是站起來 就搆得到物品 但到大概六歲時 這種學習模式卻終止了 從那之後所有的學習都透過教導 不管是藉由像這樣聽講、讀書或其他方法 都透過教導而傳授 而基本上 電腦對學習的貢獻之一 在於它提供的學習模式 有點像學習走路和說話 主導權是握在學習者自己手上的
So with those as the principles -- some of you may know Seymour Papert. This is back in 1982, when we were working in Senegal. Because some people think that the $100 laptop just happened a year ago, or two years ago, or we were struck by lightning -- this actually has gone back a long time, and in fact, back to the '60s. Here we're in the '80s. Steve Jobs had given us some laptops. We were in Senegal. It didn't scale but it at least was bringing computers to developing countries and learning pretty quickly that these kids, even though English wasn't their language, the Latin alphabet barely was their language, but they could just swim like fish. They could play these like pianos.
有這幾個動機作為原則 在座可能有人認識西摩派柏 這張照片攝於1982年塞內加爾 有些人以為這個計畫去年才開始 或是前年 或這是我們突發奇想 其實計畫早在60年代就開始了 這是80年代的進度 (這是教育計畫,不是筆電或手機計畫) 賈伯斯提供幾台筆電到塞內加爾 規模不大 但至少將電腦帶到開發中國家 我們很快發現 當地孩子即使不諳英語 甚至連拉丁字母都不認識 用起電腦來卻怡然自得 得心應手
A little bit more recently, I got involved personally. And these are two anecdotes -- one was in Cambodia, in a village that has no electricity, no water, no television, no telephone, but has broadband Internet now. And these kids, their first English word is "Google" and they only know Skype. They've never heard of telephony. They just use Skype. And they go home at night -- they've got a broadband connection in a hut that doesn't have electricity. The parents love it, because when they open up the laptops, it's the brightest light source in the house. And talk about where metaphors and reality mix -- this is the actual school.
後來 我自己有機會親身參與 這裡有兩個小故事 其中一則發生在柬埔寨 有個村子沒有水電 沒有電視、電話 但現在村民有寬頻網路 村裡孩子第一個學會的英文單字是"Google" 除了Skype 不知電話為何物 他們只用Skype 晚上回家他們就用寬頻連上網 即使茅屋裡連電源都沒有 父母親也愛上了這台筆電 因為一開機 它就成了屋裡最亮的光源 讓各位看看什麼叫美夢成真 這是學校實際的樣子
In parallel with this, Seymour Papert got the governor of Maine to legislate one laptop per child in the year 2002. Now at the time, I think it's fair to say that 80 percent of the teachers were -- let me say, apprehensive. Really, they were actually against it. And they really preferred that the money would be used for higher salaries, more schools, whatever.
同一時間 派柏說服緬因州州長 立法在2002年通過該計畫 (絕非兩人共用或一間教室一台) 當時 若說八成的老師都憂心忡忡 我想絕不為過 事實上 老師們並不贊成這個計畫 他們寧可把錢用作他途 加薪、建新學校、或做其他事
And now, three and a half years later, guess what? They're reporting five things: drop of truancy to almost zero, attending parent-teacher meetings -- which nobody did and now almost everybody does -- drop in discipline problems, increase in student participation. Teachers are now saying it's kind of fun to teach. Kids are engaged -- they have laptops! -- and then the fifth, which interests me the most, is that the servers have to be turned off at certain times at night because the teachers are getting too much email from the kids asking them for help. So when you see that kind of thing -- this is not something that you have to test. The days of pilot projects are over, when people say, "We'd like to do three or four thousand in our country to see how it works." Screw you. Go to the back of the line and someone else will do it, and then when you figure out that this works, you can join as well. And this is what we're doing.
但三年半後的今天看看 情況如何? 他們回報了五個現象 曠課率降到幾乎至零 家長會參與率大幅增加 以前從沒人參加 現在全都來了 風紀問題減少 課堂參與熱絡 連老師都覺得現在教課很有意思 孩子們有參與感 因為有了筆電 然後第五項發現是我最感興趣的 就是伺服器晚上有時候得關機 因為教師收到太多電子郵件 全是孩子們寫來問問題的 因此 這種計畫是不需要前測的 前測早就不適用了 如果有人說: 「呃 先拿三四千台來 看看可不可行吧?」 去你的 閃遠點 自然有別人願意參與 等你明白計畫可行 再回來找我們吧 這就是我們的作風
(Laughter) (Applause)
(笑聲)(掌聲)
So, One Laptop Per Child was formed about a year and a half ago. It's a nonprofit association. It raised about 20 million dollars to do the engineering to just get this built, and then have it produced afterwards. Scale is truly important. And it's not important because you can buy components at a lower price, OK? It's because you can go to a manufacturer -- and I will leave the name out -- but we wanted a small display, doesn't have to have perfect color uniformity. It can even have a pixel or two missing. It doesn't have to be that bright. And this particular manufacturer said, "We're not interested in that. We're interested in the living room. We're interested in perfect color uniformity. We're interested in big displays, bright displays. You're not part of our strategic plan." And I said, "That's kind of too bad, because we need 100 million units a year."
「一個孩子、一台筆電」是一年半前誕生的 這個非營利組織已經募集資金 (透過NRE帳戶籌得2000萬美元) 解決設計的問題 然後再進行生產 (約法三章:規模,規模,規模!) (07年700-1000萬台,08年1-2億台) 規模至關重要 (在七大國推行) (免費提供給而兒童) 這不是因為可以用更低價買零組件 明白嗎? 而是因為 當你與合作廠商洽談時 這邊我就不公佈是哪家廠商了 你說 我們想要小螢幕 色彩均勻度差一點無妨 甚至缺一兩個畫素、稍暗都無所謂 這位廠商回答: 「呃,很抱歉,我們的專長是家用螢幕 強調的就是色調飽滿 賣點是又大又鮮明的畫面 您的要求實在有違敝公司的方針」 所以我回答:「喔,真可惜,
(Laughter)
因為我們一年要一億台」
And they said, "Oh, well, maybe we could become part of your strategic plan." And that's why scale counts. And that's why we will not launch this without five to 10 million units in the first run. And the idea is to launch with enough scale that the scale itself helps bring the price down, and that's why I said seven to 10 million there. And we're doing it without a sales-and-marketing team. I mean, you're looking at the sales-and-marketing team. We will do it by going to seven large countries and getting them to agree and launch it, and then the others can follow. We have partners. It's not hard to guess Google would be one. The others are all playing to pending. And this has been in the press a great deal. It's the so-called Green Machine that we introduced with Kofi Annan in November at the World Summit that was held in Tunisia.
廠商口風一轉:「噢,我們的方針是可以調整的」 所以我才說規模至關重要 也因此 我們首批的需求至少要500到1000萬台 目的在於 達到一定的規模以後 就能以規模制價 所以07年的目標才會訂這個數字 我們也沒有業務和行銷團隊 頂多像我這樣到處演講而已 我們拜訪大國 徵求同意推行計畫 這樣其他國家也會跟進 我們有合作夥伴 當然Google也名列其中 還有其他企業在觀望 就是它 最近在媒體上大出風頭 我們與安南一同推出了這台綠色機器 是在11月突尼西亞的世界高峰會上 大家乍看之下的反應是:這是筆電計畫
Now once people start looking at this, they say, "Ah, this is a laptop project." Well, no, it's not a laptop project. It's an education project. And the fun part -- and I'm quite focused on it -- I tell people I used to be a light bulb, but now I'm a laser -- I'm just going to get that thing built, and it turns out it's not so hard. Because laptop economics are the following: I say 50 percent here -- it's more like 60, 60 percent of the cost of your laptop is sales, marketing, distribution and profit. Now we have none of those, OK? None of those figure into our cost, because first of all, we sell it at cost, and the governments distribute it. It gets distributed to the school system like a textbook. So that piece disappears. Then you have display and everything else. Now the display on your laptop costs, in rough numbers, 10 dollars a diagonal inch. That can drop to eight; it can drop to seven but it's not going to drop to two, or to one and a half, unless we do some pretty clever things. It's the rest -- that little brown box -- that is pretty fascinating, because the rest of your laptop is devoted to itself. It's a little bit like an obese person having to use most of their energy to move their obesity.
其實不是 這是教育計畫 好玩的來了 這也是我努力的重點 我總說我以前是燈泡 現在是雷射 我非把這個計畫做起來不可 而且我發現其實沒那麼難 原因是筆電各項成本有固定比重 一台筆電的售價 差不多有五成、接近六成 是付給了業務、行銷、流通和利潤 這些我們都沒有 對不對? 所以這些項目沒有列在成本裡 因為我們用成本價出售 政府負責流通 透過學校系統分送 像發課本一樣 這些成本消失了 剩下的就是螢幕和其他部份 (成本壓到100美元的筆電) 至於螢幕成本 大致而言 是一英吋對角線10美元 (2005年筆電總價分析) 這價錢當然可以砍到8元或7元 但不可能降到2元或1.5元 除非我們有什麼重大突破 其他部分 棕色那一小塊 就有趣了 因為其他成本就是筆電運作所需 有點像過重的人 把大部分能量 都消耗在移動一身肥肉上 懂了吧?
(Laughter)
And we have a situation today which is incredible. I've been using laptops since their inception. And my laptop runs slower, less reliably and less pleasantly than it ever has before. And this year is worse.
我們現在的處境實在有點匪夷所思 我從筆電問世以來就開始用這東西了 我的筆電跑得越來越慢、越不穩、越令人不滿 今年的狀況更是糟糕 你們聽到這會鼓掌 甚至起立歡呼。但我問:
(Applause)
People clap, sometimes you even get standing ovations, and I say, "What the hell's wrong with you? Why are we all sitting there?" And somebody -- to remain nameless -- called our laptop a "gadget" recently. And I said, "God, our laptop's going to go like a bat out of hell. When you open it up, it's going to go 'bing.'" It'll be on. It'll be just like it was in 1985, when you bought an Apple Macintosh 512. It worked really well. And we've been going steadily downhill.
「你們怎麼了?為什麼乖乖忍受這些不便?」 有人說 百元筆電是時髦玩具 我可不認同 我們的筆電跑得飛快 開機的時候 「逬!」一聲就可以用了 就像1985年的蘋果麥金塔512電腦 運作順暢 現在的筆電一代不如一代 常有人問我筆電的規格 (WiFi網狀網路)
Now, people ask all the time what it is. That's what it is. The two pieces that are probably notable: it'll be a mesh network, so when the kids open up their laptops, they all become a network, and then just need one or two points of backhaul. You can serve a couple of thousand kids with two megabits. So you really can bring into a village, and then the villages can connect themselves, and you really can do it quite well.
就是如此 (雙模式顯示器) 其中最值得一提的應是網狀網路 孩子們同時使用筆電 就構成網路環境 只需要一兩個後置網路傳輸點 2MB的頻寬就夠滿足兩千個孩子 所以只要村內家家有筆電 整個村子就能聯成一個網路 效果非常好
The dual mode display -- the idea is to have a display that both works outdoors -- isn't it fun using your cell phone outdoors in the sunlight? Well, you can't see it. And one of the reasons you can't see it is because it's backlighting most of the time, most cell phones. Now, what we're doing is, we're doing one that will be both frontlit and backlit. And whether you manually switch it or you do it in the software is to be seen. But when it's backlit, it's color. And when it's frontlit, it's black and white at three times the resolution.
雙模顯示 讓螢幕在戶外也能用 在戶外用手機有什麼問題? 呃,你根本看不清楚螢幕 原因之一是 手機螢幕是背光式的 大部分手機都是如此 我們想做的 是正背光兩用的螢幕 切換方式是手動還是用程式轉換還有待確認 反正 背光時 就是彩色螢幕 面光時 是三倍解析度的黑白螢幕 這些都達成了嗎?還沒
Is it all worked out? No. That's why a lot of our people are more or less living in Taiwan right now. And in about 30 days, we'll know for sure whether this works. Probably the most important piece there is that the kids really can do the maintenance. And this is again something that people don't believe, but I really think it's quite true. That's the machine we showed in Tunis. This is more the direction that we're going to go. And it's something that we didn't think was possible. Now, I'm going to pass this around. This isn't a design, OK? So this is just a mechanical engineering sort of embodiment of it for you to play with. And it's clearly just a model. The working one is at MIT. I'm going to pass it to this handsome gentleman. At least you can decide whether it goes left or --
所以我們很多人員現在常跑台灣 大概30天後就會知道可不可行 而最重要的部分 應該是孩子們可以負責維修工作 這是另一個不可思議之處 但這是千真萬確的 (兒童負責維修工作) 這就是我們在突尼斯展示的筆電 這是未來設計的方向 (旋轉功能) 之前以為這是做不到的 我現在把筆電傳下去 這並不是設計圖 它只是個粗製的樣本 讓各位看看 只算是模型 實際成品在MIT 從這位帥哥這裡開始傳 讓你決定要往左還是往右傳
Chris Anderson: Before you do it, for the people down in simulcast --
噢 我忘了有現場聯播 攝影機拍一下好嗎
Nicholas Negroponte: Sorry! I forgot. CA: Just show it off a bit.
幸好你提醒 謝了 克里斯
So wherever the camera is -- OK, good point. Thank you, Chris.
這不僅是一台筆電
The idea was that it would be not only a laptop, but that it could transform into an electronic book. So it's sort of an electronic book. This is where when you go outside, it's in black and white. The games buttons are missing, but it'll also be a games machine, book machine. Set it up this way, and it's a television set. Etc., etc. -- is that enough for simulcast? OK, sorry. I'll let Jim decide which way to send it afterwards. OK. Seven countries.
還可以變身成電子書 或是具備類似的功能 這樣就可以在戶外看黑白螢幕 雖然沒有遊戲鈕 不過它也是遊戲機 把螢幕豎起來 可以當電視 有許多用途 這樣展示清楚了嗎?好 吉姆會決定等下要往哪邊傳 回到剛剛說的七大國 (笑聲)(七國:中國 印度 泰國 埃及 奈及利亞 巴西 阿根廷)
(Laughter)
麻州還不確定 因為他們必須要進行招標
I say "maybe" for Massachusetts, because they actually have to do a bid. By law you've got to bid, and so on and so forth. So I can't quite name them. In the other cases, they don't have to do bids. They can decide -- it's the federal government in each case. It's kind of agonizing, because a lot of people say, "Let's do it at the state level," because states are more nimble than the feds, just because of size. And yet we count. We're really dealing with the federal government. We're really dealing with ministries of education. And if you look at governments around the world, ministries of education tend to be the most conservative, and also the ones that have huge payrolls. Everybody thinks they know about education, a lot of culture is built into it as well. It's really hard. And so it's certainly the hard road. If you look at the countries, they're pretty geoculturally distributed.
依法行事就得遵照程序進行 所以我現在還不敢下定論 其他國家不需要招標就可以決定 決策者都是中央政府 不過惱人的是 很多人說 「我們從地方政府開始下手吧」 當然 地方政府規模小 一定比中央靈活 但是我們發現 我們交涉的對象其實是中央政府 面對的是教育部 環顧世界各國政府 教育部往往是最保守的 也是人員最多的部門 每位都自詡為教育專家 其中又牽涉許多文化層面 推行計畫真的不容易 十分艱鉅 這些國家各有不同的地理文化
Have they all agreed? No, not completely. Probably Thailand, Brazil and Nigeria are the three that are the most active and most agreed. We're purposely not signing anything with anybody until we actually have the working ones. And since I visit each one of those countries within at least every three months, I'm just going around the world every three weeks. Here's sort of the schedule and I put at the bottom we might give some away free in two years at this meeting. Everybody says it's a $100 laptop -- you can't do it. Well, guess what, we're not. We're coming in probably at 135, to start, then drift down. And that's very important, because so many things hit the market at a price and then drift up. It's kind of the loss leader, and then as soon as it looks interesting, it can't be afforded, or it can't be scaled out. So we're targeting 50 dollars in 2010.
每國都同意推行嗎?沒有 泰國 巴西 奈及利亞是比較積極的 也最願意配合 我們尚未與任一國簽署任何協議 要等筆電完工 我每三個月拜訪這些國家一次 等於我每三週就環遊世界一圈 這是我們大致的進度 希望在兩年後的TED大會上免費發送 每個人都說 成本100元的筆電 辦不到的 知道嗎 我們確實辦不到 一開始大約是135元 然後慢慢降價 這點非常重要 因為許多商品上市後 價格會逐漸上漲 就是先以低價促銷 打響知名度後 到頭來不是變得太貴 就是無法量產 我們目標是在2010年將成本降至50美元 水貨市場是一大問題
The gray market's a big issue. And one of the ways -- just one -- but one of the ways to help in the case of the gray market is to make something that is so utterly unique -- It's a little bit like the fact that automobiles -- thousands of automobiles are stolen every day in the United States. Not one single post-office truck is stolen.
防範水貨市場交易 只有一個方法 就是產品必須獨一無二 以汽車為例 美國每天有上千輛車失竊 但一定沒有人會偷郵務車 為什麼?
(Laughter)
And why? Because there's no market for post-office trucks. It looks like a post-office truck. You can spray paint it. You can do anything you want. I just learned recently: in South Africa, no white Volvos are stolen. Period. None. Zero. So we want to make it very much like a white Volvo.
因為沒辦法脫手 郵務車就是郵務車的樣子 就算漆上不同顏色、改裝都沒用 我聽說 南非沒有白色富豪車失竊 從來沒有 所以百元筆電就要像白色富豪車
Each government has a task force. This perhaps is less interesting, but we're trying to get the governments to all work together and it's not easy. The economics of this is to start with the federal governments and then later, to subsequently go to other -- whether it's child-to-child funding, so a child in this country buys one for a child in the developing world, maybe of the same gender, maybe of the same age. An uncle gives a niece or a nephew that as a birthday present. I mean, there are all sorts of things that will happen, and they'll be very, very exciting.
各國政府都有專案小組 要各部門通力合作 其實困難重重 最省事的做法是從中央政府下手 然後層層推展 例如 發起兒童一對一資助計畫 讓美國孩子替發展中國家孩子出錢 依性別或年齡將兩地的孩子配對 也可能是長輩送晚輩 當作生日禮物 可以做的事太多了 未來的發展真是讓人萬分期待
And everybody says -- I say -- it's an education project. Are we providing the software? The answer is: The system certainly has software, but no, we're not providing the education content. That is really done in the countries. But we are certainly constructionists. And we certainly believe in learning by doing and everything from Logo, which was started in 1968, to more modern things, like Scratch, if you've ever even heard of it, are very, very much part of it. And that's the rollout.
另外 既然這是教育計畫 筆電裡會附軟體嗎? 答案是 系統裡當然有軟體 不過 我們不提供教學材料 教材由各國自己負責 我們是建構主義者 認為做中學才是學習之道 例如Logo程式語言 從1968年啟用 或比較近代的Scratch程式語言 都是以此為理念而設計的 這就是我們首次展示
Are we dreaming? Is this real? It actually is real. The only criticism, and people really don't want to criticize this, because it is a humanitarian effort, a nonprofit effort and to criticize it is a little bit stupid, actually.
這是癡人說夢嗎?真的可行嗎? 可行 我們唯一受到的批評-沒人願意批評這個計畫 因為它是人道活動 非營利組織 其實任何批評都是非常不智的
(Laughter)
所以唯一會批評的就是
But the one thing that people could criticize was, "Great idea, but these guys can't do it." And that could either mean these guys, professors and so on couldn't do it, or that it's not possible. Well, on December 12, a company called Quanta agreed to build it, and since they make about one-third of all the laptops on the planet today, that question disappeared. So it's not a matter of whether it's going to happen. It is going to happen. And if it comes out at 138 dollars, so what? If it comes out six months late, so what? That's a pretty soft landing.
立意可嘉 但這些人無法付諸實行 這指的可能是 這群教授等人不自量力 或計畫本身是不可能的任務 12月12日 廣達電腦同意進行生產 該公司是製造全球1/3筆電的大廠 一舉掃除任何對可行性的疑慮 百元筆電計畫正準備上路 即使一開始售價是138美元又如何? 即使延遲六個月才上市又如何? 這個計畫一定會漸入佳境 謝謝
Thank you.
(掌聲)
(Applause)