I want to tell you about the future of money. Let's start with a story about this culture that lived in Micronesia in the early 1900s, called the Yap. Now, I want to tell you about the Yap because their form of money is really interesting. They use these limestone discs called Rai stones. Now, the Yap don't actually move these Rai stones around or exchange them the way we do with our coins, because Rai stones can get to be pretty massive. The largest is about four tons and 12 feet across. So the Yap just keep track of who owns part of what stone.
我想要和各位談談貨幣的未來。 我們先從一個文化故事開始, 與二十世紀初期 位於密克羅尼西亞的雅浦有關。 我想要和各位談雅浦, 是因為他們的貨幣形式很有意思。 他們用一種叫做 雅浦島石幣的石灰石圓盤。 雅浦人並不會真的 把這些石幣搬來搬去, 或是像我們彼此交換硬幣, 因為雅浦島石幣又大又重。 最大的重達 4 噸,長12 英呎。 所以雅浦人只記錄石幣的所有權。
There's a story about these sailors that were transporting a stone across the ocean when they ran into some trouble and the stone actually fell in. The sailors got back to the main island and they told everyone what had happened. And everyone decided that, actually, yes, the sailors had the stone and -- why not? -- it still counted. Even though it was at the bottom of the ocean, it was still part of the Yap economy.
傳說有一群水手 要把一塊石幣運過海洋, 但他們碰上麻煩,石幣落入海中。 水手們回到主島嶼後, 告訴大家事情經過。 大家一致決定,一點也沒錯, 這些水手擁有那塊石頭, 所以,為什麼不?它還是算數。 雖然石幣沉到海底, 它仍屬於雅浦經濟的一部份。
You might think that this was just a small culture a hundred years ago. But things like this happen in the Western world as well, and the Yap actually still use a form of these stones.
你們可能認為, 這不過是個數百年前的地方文化。 但像這樣的事也會發生在西方世界, 且雅浦現在仍然以 某種形式使用這些石幣。
In 1932, the Bank of France asked the United States to convert their holdings from dollars into gold. But it was too inconvenient to think about actually shipping all of that gold over to Europe. So instead, someone went to where that gold was being stored and they just labeled it as belonging to France now. And everyone agreed that France owned the gold. It's just like those Rai stones.
1932 年,法國的中央銀行請美國 把他們的股份從美元轉換成黃金。 但試想將所有的黃金運送到歐洲 會是多麼不方便。 所以,取而代之, 有人跑去存放黃金的地方, 他們只是把黃金給標記為 「現在屬於法國」。 大家都同意法國擁有這些黃金。 這就和雅浦島的石幣一樣。
The point I want to make with these two examples is that there's nothing inherently valuable about a dollar or a stone or a coin. The only reason these things have any value is because we've all decided they should. And because we've decided that, they do. Money is about the exchanges and the transactions that we have with each other. Money isn't anything objective. It's about a collective story that we tell each other about value. A collective fiction. And that's a really powerful concept.
用這兩個例子,我想建立的論點是, 美元、石頭、或硬幣本身 並沒有與生俱來的價值。 它們會有價值的唯一原因, 是因為我們一同賦予它們價值。 因為我們這麼決定, 它們就有價值了。 貨幣的重點 在於我們彼此之間的交換和交易, 貨幣並不是客觀的。 它是人們相互認同, 有關價值的集體故事。 一個集體的虛構故事。 而這是個很強大的概念。
In the past two decades, we've begun to use digital money. So I get paid via direct deposit, I pay my rent via bank transfer, I pay my taxes online. And every month, a small amount of money is deducted from my paycheck and invested in mutual funds in my retirement account. All of these interactions are literally just changing 1's and 0's on computers. There's not even anything physical, like a stone or a coin. Digital money makes it so that I can pay someone around the world in seconds.
過去二十年, 我們開始用數位貨幣。 我透過電子轉帳的方式領薪, 我運用銀行轉帳支付房租, 我在線上付稅款。 每個月, 我的薪水會有一小部份被扣除, 投資到我退休帳戶的共同基金裡。 所有這些互動 其實就只是改變 電腦上的 0 和 1 而已。 沒有任何實體的東西, 比如石頭或硬幣。 因為有數位貨幣, 我可以在幾秒鐘內 就付錢給世界各地的人。
Now when this works, it's because there are large institutions underwriting every 1 or 0 that changes on a computer. And when it doesn't, it's often the fault of those large institutions. Or at least, it's up to them to fix the problem. And a lot of times, they don't. There's a lot of friction in the system. How long did it take the US credit card companies to implement chip and pin? Half my credit cards still don't work in Europe. That's friction. Transferring money across borders and across currencies is really expensive: friction. An entrepreneur in India can set up an online business in minutes, but it's hard for her to get loans and to get paid: friction. Our access to digital money and our ability to freely transact is being held captive by these gatekeepers. And there's a lot of impediments in the system slowing things down.
這方式能行得通, 是因為有大型機構承保 每個在電腦上改變的 1 或 0。 這方式出問題時, 通常就是這些大型機構的錯。 或至少,要由它們來解決問題。 但很多時候,它們沒解決問題。 在這個系統中有很多摩擦。 美國的信用卡公司要花多久 才能導入密碼刷卡支付系統? 我有一半的信用卡 在歐洲還是不能用。 那就是摩擦。 跨國界、跨貨幣來做轉帳 是很昂貴的: 摩擦。 印度的創業家可以在幾分鐘內 架起一間線上公司, 但那公司卻很難取得貸款和營收: 摩擦。 我們使用數位貨幣與 進行自由交易的權限, 處處受到這些守門者的控制。 而系統中的諸多阻礙, 導致效率下降。
That's because digital money isn't really mine, it's entries in databases that belong to my bank, my credit card company or my investment firm. And these companies have the right to say "no." If I'm a PayPal merchant and PayPal wrongly flags me for fraud, that's it. My account gets frozen, and I can't get paid.
那是因為數位貨幣並不真的屬於我。 它是資料庫中的記錄, 屬於我的銀行、 我的信用卡公司或投資公司。 這些公司有權說「不」。 如果我是 Paypal 商人, 而 Paypal 誤把我標記為詐欺, 就沒輒了。 我的帳戶會被凍結,無法領錢。
These institutions are standing in the way of innovation. How many of you use Facebook photos, Google Photos, Instagram? My photos are everywhere. They are on my phone, they're on my laptop, they're on my old phone, they're in Dropbox. They're on all these different websites and services. And most of these services don't work together. They don't inter-operate. And as a result, my photo library is a mess.
這些機構阻擋了創新。 在座有多少人會用 臉書照片、Google 照片、 Instagram? 我的照片到處都是。 從我的手機、筆電、 舊手機,到 Dropbox。 它們被放在各種 不同的網站和服務上。 這些服務大部份都沒有彼此合作。 它們不會互操作。 因此, 我的照片收藏是一團亂。
The same thing happens when institutions control the money supply. A lot of these services don't inter-operate, and as a result, this blocks what we can do with payment. And it makes transaction costs go up. So far, we've been through two phases of money. In an analog world, we had to deal with these physical objects, and money moved at a certain speed -- the speed of humans. In a digital world, money can reach much farther and is much faster, but we're at the mercy of these gatekeeper institutions. Money only moves at the speed of banks.
同樣的事情將一再發生, 只要機構掌控了貨幣供應。 許多這些服務無法互操作, 因此,造成我們付款時的不便。 也讓交易的成本上升。 目前,我們已經經過了 貨幣的兩個階段。 在類比的世界, 我們要處理的是實體, 貨幣移動的速度固定── 即人類的速度。 數位時代的貨幣 能更快到達更遠的地方, 但處在這些守門機構的擺佈下。 貨幣的移動速度只是銀行的速度。
We're about to enter a new phase of money. The future of money is programmable. When we combine software and currency, money becomes more than just a static unit of value, and we don't have to rely on institutions for security. In a programmable world, we remove humans and institutions from the loop. And when this happens, we won't even feel like we're transacting anymore. Money will be directed by software, and it will just safely and securely flow.
我們即將進入貨幣的一個新階段。 未來的貨幣可用程式控制。 當我們結合軟體和通貨, 貨幣不再只是價值的靜態單位, 我們不需因安全考量而依靠機構。 在可程控的世界, 我們會把人類和機構從環路中移除。 當這情況發生時, 甚至感覺不到我們在交易。 貨幣會由軟體來主導, 它將安全無慮地流動。
Cryptocurrencies are the first step of this evolution. Cryptocurrencies are digital money that isn't run by any government or bank. It's money designed to work in a world without intermediaries. Bitcoin is the most ubiquitous cryptocurrency, but there are hundreds of them. There's Ethereum, Litecoin, Stellar, Dogecoin, and those are just a few of the more popular ones. And these things are real money. The sushi restaurant down my street takes Bitcoin. I have an app on my phone that I can use to buy sashimi. But it's not just for small transactions. In March, there was a transaction that moved around 100,000 bitcoins. That's the equivalent of 40 million US dollars.
加密貨幣是這項演化的第一步。 加密貨幣是數位貨幣, 不由任何政府或銀行來操作。 它被設計來運用於沒有中間人的世界。 比特幣是最普遍的加密貨幣, 但加密貨幣的種類達數百種。 有以太坊、萊特幣、 恒星幣、多吉幣, 這些還只是比較熱門的幾種而已。 這些全是真貨幣。 我家街道上的壽司餐廳 能收比特幣。 我的手機上有個應用程式, 可以用來買生魚片。 但不只是小型交易。 三月時,有項價值 約十萬比特幣的交易。 等同於四千萬美金。
Cryptocurrencies are based on a special field of mathematics called cryptography. Cryptography is the study of how to secure communication, and it's about two really important things: masking information so it can be hidden in plain sight, and verifying a piece of information's source. Cryptography underpins so many of the systems around us. And it's so powerful that at times the US government has actually classified it as a weapon.
加密貨幣奠基於 數學的一個特別領域, 叫做密碼學。 密碼學研究如何確保通訊安全, 它的重點有兩個: 偽裝資訊,讓資訊不會顯而易見, 以及驗證資訊的來源。 密碼學是我們周遭許多系統的基礎。 它非常強大, 以致有時美國政府真把它歸類為武器。
During World War II, breaking cryptosystems like Enigma was critical to decoding enemy transmissions and turning the tide of the war. Today, anyone with a modern web browser is running a pretty sophisticated cryptosystem. It's what we use to secure our interactions on the Internet. It's what makes it safe for us to type our passwords in and to send financial information to websites. So what the banks used to give us -- trustworthy digital money transfer -- we can now get with a clever application of cryptography. And this means that we don't have to rely on the banks anymore to secure our transactions. We can do it ourselves.
二次大戰時,破解 如 Enigma 這類的加密系統, 是譯解敵人電報 和扭轉戰爭局勢的關鍵。 如今,任何使用網路瀏覽器的人, 都運作著相當精密的加密系統。 我們用它來確保安全的網路交易。 它能保障我們安全地輸入密碼 及金融資訊到許多網站。 所以,以前銀行給予我們的, 「值得信賴的數位貨幣轉帳」 我們現在只要用一個聰明的 密碼學應用程式就可以做到。 這意味著,我們不再 需要仰賴銀行來確保 我們的交易安全了。 我們自己就能做到。
Bitcoin is based on the very same idea that the Yap used, this collective global knowledge of transfers. In Bitcoin, I spend by transferring Bitcoin, and I get paid when someone transfers Bitcoin to me.
比特幣的基礎和雅浦人的 想法大同小異: 對於轉帳的共同認知。 我藉由轉帳比特幣來付款, 並透過他人轉入的比特幣, 來收取金錢。
Imagine that we had this magic paper. So the way that this paper works is I can give you a sheet of it and if you write something on it, it will magically appear on my piece as well. Let's say we just give everyone this paper and everyone writes down the transfers that they're doing in the Bitcoin system. All of these transfers get copied around to everyone else's pieces of paper. And I can look at mine and I'll have a list of all of the transfers that are happening in the entire Bitcoin economy. This is actually what's happening with the Bitcoin blockchain, which is a list of all of the transactions in Bitcoin. Except, it's not done through paper. It's done through computer code, running on thousands of networked computers around the world. All of these computers are collectively confirming who owns what Bitcoin. So the Bitcoin blockchain is core to how Bitcoin works.
想像我們有一種魔術紙。 它運作的方式是, 我可以給你一張這種紙, 如果你在上面寫字, 它也會魔術般地出現在我的紙上。 假設我們給了每個人這種紙, 每個人把自己用比特幣做的轉帳 都紀錄下來。 所有的轉帳資訊都會 複製到其他人的紙上。 當我看著我的紙時, 上面會出現整個比特幣經濟中 發生過的所有轉帳。 比特幣的區塊鏈就是這樣運作的, 它就是一長串用比特幣 進行交易的列表。 差別是,它用的不是紙。 而是電腦程式, 運行於上千台網路電腦上, 遍布世界各地。 所有的電腦會共同確認 誰擁有哪些比特幣。 所以,比特幣區塊鏈是 比特幣運作的核心。
But where do bitcoins actually come from? Well, the code is designed to create new Bitcoin according to a schedule. And the way that it works is that to get those Bitcoin, I have to solve a puzzle -- a random cryptographic puzzle. Imagine that we had 15 dice, and we were throwing these dice over and over again. Whenever the dice come up all sixes, we say that we win. This is very close to what these computers are all actually doing. They're trying over and over again to land on the right number. And when they do, we say that they've solved the puzzle.
但比特幣到底是從哪裡冒出來的? 所設計的程式根據一個清單 來創造新的比特幣。 它的運作方式是這樣的: 若要得到那些比特幣, 我得解開一個謎題, 一個隨機的密碼謎題。 想像我們有十五個骰子, 我們不斷重覆投擲這些骰子。 當所有骰子都出現六時, 我們就算贏。 這些電腦運作方式,差不多就是這樣。 它們不斷嘗試去得到對的數字。 得到的時候, 它們就算是解開了謎題。
The computer that solves the puzzle publishes its solution to the rest of the network and collects its reward: new bitcoins. And in the act of solving this puzzle, these computers are actually helping to secure the Bitcoin blockchain and add to the list of transactions.
解開謎題的那台電腦 會把它的解法公開給其餘的電腦, 然後領它的獎品:新的比特幣。 而在解這個謎題時, 這些電腦其實正在確保 比特幣區塊鏈的安全, 並擴增交易列表。
There are actually people all over the world running this software, and we call them Bitcoin miners. Anyone can become a Bitcoin miner. You can go download the software right now and run it in your computer and try to collect some bitcoins. I can't say that I would recommend it, because right now, the puzzle is so hard and the network is so powerful, that if I tried to mine Bitcoin on my laptop, I probably wouldn't see any for about two million years. The miners, professional miners, use this special hardware that's designed to solve the puzzle really fast. Now, the Bitcoin network and all of this special hardware, there are estimates that the amount of energy it uses is equivalent to that of a small country. So, the first set of cryptocurrencies are a little bit slow and a little bit cumbersome. But the next generation is going to be so much better and so much faster.
其實,世界各處都有人 在維持這套軟體運作, 我們稱他們是比特幣礦工。 人人都可以成為比特幣礦工。 各位現在就可以去下載這套軟體, 並用你們的電腦來執行, 試著去領一些比特幣。 我不會說我建議這麼做, 因為目前,謎題非常難解, 且這個網路非常強大, 如果我試著用我的筆電 來開採比特幣, 我很可能試了兩百萬年 也看不到任何成果。 這些職業礦工,會用特別的硬體, 針對謎題,迅速破解。 比特幣網路和所有這種特殊硬體, 估計所消耗的能源 等同一個小國家用掉的。 所以,第一組加密貨幣有點慢, 有點不好用。 但下一代就會好很多、快很多。
Cryptocurrencies are the first step to a world with a global programmable money. And in a world with programmable money, I can pay anyone else securely without having to sign up or ask permission, or do a conversion or worry about my money getting stuck. And I can send money around the world. This is a really amazing thing. It's the idea of permission-less innovation. The Internet caused an explosion of innovation, because it was built upon an open architecture. And just like the Internet changed the way we communicate, programmable money is going to change the way we pay, allocate and decide on value.
加密貨幣只是第一步, 朝向一個全球使用 可程控貨幣的世界前進。 在使用可程控貨幣的世界中, 我可以很安全地付錢給任何人, 不需要註冊,亦不需取得許可, 不用兌換,不用擔心取不出錢來。 且我可以將錢移到世界各地。 這是非常了不起的。 這是個無須許可的創新想法。 網際網路造成了創新的爆增, 因為它是建立在開放的結構上。 就像網際網路改變了 我們溝通的方式, 可程控貨幣也將會改變我們付款、 分配、決定價值的方式。
So what kind of world does programmable money create? Imagine a world where I can rent out my healthcare data to a pharmaceutical company. They can run large-scale data analysis and provide me with a cryptographic proof that shows they're only using my data in a way that we agreed. And they can pay me for what they find out. Instead of signing up for streaming services and getting a cable bill, what if my television analyzed my watching habits and recommended well-priced content that fit within my budget that I would enjoy? Imagine an Internet without ads, because instead of paying with our attention when we view content, we just pay.
可程控貨幣會創造出怎樣的世界? 試想這樣的世界: 我能把醫療保健資料租給藥品公司。 他們可以做大規模的資料分析, 提供我加密的證據, 證明他們只在雙方同意的 範圍內使用我的資料。 且他們可根據發現結果付我錢。 不再需要註冊串流服務, 不用收到有線帳單, 也許我的電視可以分析我的觀看習慣, 並根據我的預算來推薦 價格理想且符合喜好的內容, 這樣如何? 想像一下沒有廣告的網際網路, 我們在瀏覽內容的時候, 與其付出注意力, 我們只要付錢就好。
Interestingly, things like micro-payments are actually going to change the way security works in our world, because once we're better able to allocate value, people will use their money and their energies for more constructive things. If it cost a fraction of a cent to send an email, would we still have spam?
有趣的是, 就像微支付真的會改變 這世界運作安全機制的方式, 因為一旦我們能更好地分配價值, 人們就會把他們的金錢和精力 用在更有建設性的事物上。 如果寄一封電子郵件需要花一分錢, 還會有廣告郵件嗎?
We're not at this world yet, but it's coming. Right now, it's like we're in a world that is seeing the first automobile. The first cryptocurrency, like the first car, is slow and hard to understand and hard to use. Digital money, like the horse and carriage, works pretty well, and the whole world economy is built on it. If you were the first person on your block to get a car with an internal combustion engine, your neighbors would probably think you were crazy: "Why would you want this large, clunky machine that breaks down all the time, that lights on fire, and is still slower than a horse?" But we all know how that story turns out.
我們還沒有進入這樣的世界, 但它即將來臨。 現在就好像我們正處於 看見首部汽車問世的世界中。 最初的加密貨幣就像是第一台汽車, 它很慢,難以理解,又難用。 數位貨幣則像是馬和馬車, 它們運作得很好, 且全世界的經濟都建立在其上。 如果你是鄰坊內第一位 購入內燃機的汽車的人, 你的鄰居可能以為你瘋了: 「為什麼你要這個笨重的大機器, 時常故障,還要靠火來點著, 且速度還比馬慢?」 但我們都知道這個故事後來的發展。
We're entering a new era of programmable money. And it's very exciting, but it's also a little bit scary. Cryptocurrencies can be used for illegal transactions, just like cash is used for crime in the world today. When all of our transactions are online, what does that mean for surveillance -- who can see what we do? Who's advantaged in this new world and who isn't? Will I have to start to pay for things that I didn't have to pay for before? Will we all become slaves to algorithms and utility functions?
我們正在進入一個 可程控貨幣的新紀元。 這很讓人興奮, 但也有一點讓人害怕。 加密貨幣可以被用來做非法交易, 就像在現今的世界 現金可以用來犯罪。 當所有的交易都在線上時, 監控的意義是什麼? 誰可以看到我們在做什麼? 在這新世界中,誰有優勢、誰沒有? 我是否會需要開始支付一些 以前不用支付的費用? 我們是否都會變成 演算法和效用函數的奴隸?
All new technology comes with trade-offs. The Internet brought us a lot of ways to waste time. But it also greatly increased productivity. Mobile phones are annoying because they make me feel like I have to stay connected to work all the time. But they also help me stay connected to friends and family. The new sharing economy is going to eliminate some jobs. But it's also going to create new, flexible forms of employment. With programmable money, we decouple the need for large, trusted institutions from the architecture of the network. And this pushes innovation in money out to the edges, where it belongs. Programmable money democratizes money. And because of this, things are going to change and unfold in ways that we can't even predict.
所有的新技術都少不了權衡。 網際網路帶給我們很多 可以浪費時間的方式。 但它也大大地增加了生產力。 行動電話很煩人, 因為它讓我覺得隨時都得工作, 全天候。 但它也協助我 與朋友及家人保持聯絡。 新的共享經濟將會淘汰一些工作。 但也會創造出 具有彈性的新型就業形式。 有了可程控的貨幣, 我們就能在網路結構中脫鉤, 不再依賴大型信賴機構。 這就會把貨幣的創新 推向框架之外,它所屬之地。 可程控貨幣讓貨幣大眾化。 因此,事物改變和發生的方式 將變得難以預測。
Thank you.
謝謝。
(Applause)
(掌聲)