I want to tell you about the future of money. Let's start with a story about this culture that lived in Micronesia in the early 1900s, called the Yap. Now, I want to tell you about the Yap because their form of money is really interesting. They use these limestone discs called Rai stones. Now, the Yap don't actually move these Rai stones around or exchange them the way we do with our coins, because Rai stones can get to be pretty massive. The largest is about four tons and 12 feet across. So the Yap just keep track of who owns part of what stone.
Želim da vam govorim o budućnosti novca. Započnimo pričom o kulturi koja je živela u Mikroneziji početkom 20. veka, po imenu Jap. Htela bih da vam govorim o Japima jer je njihov oblik novca veoma zanimljiv. Koriste krečnjačke diskove koji se zovu kamenje rai. Japi zapravo ne nose to kamenje rai unaokolo niti ih razmenjuju na način na koji mi to činimo sa novčićima, jer kamenje rai može biti prilično krupno. Najveći ima oko četiri tone i prečnik od oko 3,6 metara. Tako Japi samo prate ko poseduje koji deo kog kamena.
There's a story about these sailors that were transporting a stone across the ocean when they ran into some trouble and the stone actually fell in. The sailors got back to the main island and they told everyone what had happened. And everyone decided that, actually, yes, the sailors had the stone and -- why not? -- it still counted. Even though it was at the bottom of the ocean, it was still part of the Yap economy.
Postoji priča o mornarima koji su prevozili kamen preko okena kada su upali u neku nevolju i kamen je upao. Mornari su se vratili na glavno ostrvo i rekli svima šta se dogodilo. Svi su odlučili da zapravo, da, mornari su imali kamen i - zašto da ne - on još važi. Iako je bio na dnu okeana, i dalje je bio deo ekonomije Japa.
You might think that this was just a small culture a hundred years ago. But things like this happen in the Western world as well, and the Yap actually still use a form of these stones.
Možda mislite da je to bila samo mala kultura pre sto godina. Međutim, ovakve stvari se dešavaju i u zapadnom svetu, a Japi zapravo i dalje koriste neki oblik ovog kamenja.
In 1932, the Bank of France asked the United States to convert their holdings from dollars into gold. But it was too inconvenient to think about actually shipping all of that gold over to Europe. So instead, someone went to where that gold was being stored and they just labeled it as belonging to France now. And everyone agreed that France owned the gold. It's just like those Rai stones.
Godine 1932, Francuska banka je zatražila od Sjedinjenih Država da pretvore ono što poseduju iz dolara u zlato. Međutim, bilo je previše nezgodno da bi pomišljali na prevoz celokupnog tog zlata u Evropu. Umesto toga, neko je otišao tamo gde se to zlato čuvalo i samo su obeležili da sada pripada Francuskoj. Svi su se složili da je Francuska vlasnik tog zlata. To je baš kao i sa kamenjem rai.
The point I want to make with these two examples is that there's nothing inherently valuable about a dollar or a stone or a coin. The only reason these things have any value is because we've all decided they should. And because we've decided that, they do. Money is about the exchanges and the transactions that we have with each other. Money isn't anything objective. It's about a collective story that we tell each other about value. A collective fiction. And that's a really powerful concept.
Poenta koju želim da naglasim pomoću ova dva primera jeste da ne postoji suštinska vrednost vezana za dolar, kamen ili novčić. Jedini razlog zbog kojeg te stvari imaju bilo kakvu vrednost je zato što smo svi odlučili da treba da je imaju. Zato što smo to odlučili, imaju je. Novac se svodi na razmene i transakcije koje vršimo međusobno. Novac nije ništa objektivno. Radi se o kolektivnoj priči o vrednosti koju pričamo jedni drugima, o kolektivnoj fikciji. To je veoma moćan koncept.
In the past two decades, we've begun to use digital money. So I get paid via direct deposit, I pay my rent via bank transfer, I pay my taxes online. And every month, a small amount of money is deducted from my paycheck and invested in mutual funds in my retirement account. All of these interactions are literally just changing 1's and 0's on computers. There's not even anything physical, like a stone or a coin. Digital money makes it so that I can pay someone around the world in seconds.
Tokom protekle dve decenije, počeli smo da koristimo digitalni novac. Tako ja primam novac putem direktnog depozita, plaćam kiriju preko bankovnog transfera. Plaćam poreze onlajn, a svakog meseca, mali iznos novca se odbija od moje plate i ulaže se u investicione fondove na mom penzijskom računu. Sve te interakcije bukvalno samo menjaju jedinice i nule na kompjuterima. Čak ne postoji ni nešto fizičko poput kamena ili novčića. Digitalni novac omogućava da mogu da platim nekome širom sveta u roku od nekoliko sekundi.
Now when this works, it's because there are large institutions underwriting every 1 or 0 that changes on a computer. And when it doesn't, it's often the fault of those large institutions. Or at least, it's up to them to fix the problem. And a lot of times, they don't. There's a lot of friction in the system. How long did it take the US credit card companies to implement chip and pin? Half my credit cards still don't work in Europe. That's friction. Transferring money across borders and across currencies is really expensive: friction. An entrepreneur in India can set up an online business in minutes, but it's hard for her to get loans and to get paid: friction. Our access to digital money and our ability to freely transact is being held captive by these gatekeepers. And there's a lot of impediments in the system slowing things down.
Kada ovo funkcioniše, to je zato što postoje velike institucije koje daju garancije za svaku jedinicu ili nulu koja se promeni na kompjuteru. A kada ne funkcioniše, to je često krivicom tih velikih institucija ili je, u najmanju ruku, na njima da reše problem. A mnogo puta ga ne reše. Postoji mnogo otpora u sistemu. Koliko je dugo trebalo kompanijama za kreditne kartice u SAD-u da sprovedu čipove i PIN brojeve? Polovina mojih kreditnih kartica i dalje ne funkcioniše u Evropi. To je otpor. Prenos novca preko granica i u različitim valutama je veoma skupo - otpor. Preduzetnica u Indiji može da pokrene onlajn posao za nekoliko minuta, ali joj je teško da dobije kredit i da prima uplate - otpor. Naš pristup digitalnom novcu i sposobnost da slobodno vršimo transakcije ovi čuvari drže u zarobljeništvu. Postoji mnogo prepreka u sistemu koje usporavaju stvari.
That's because digital money isn't really mine, it's entries in databases that belong to my bank, my credit card company or my investment firm. And these companies have the right to say "no." If I'm a PayPal merchant and PayPal wrongly flags me for fraud, that's it. My account gets frozen, and I can't get paid.
To je zato što digitalni novac nije zaista moj; to su unosi u baze podataka koje pripadaju mojoj banci, mojoj kompaniji za kreditnu karticu ili mojoj investicionoj firmi, a te kompanije imaju pravo da odbiju. Ako trgujem putem Pejpala i Pejpal nepravedno označi da sam počinila proneveru, to je to. Moj račun postaje zamrznut i ne mogu da primam uplate.
These institutions are standing in the way of innovation. How many of you use Facebook photos, Google Photos, Instagram? My photos are everywhere. They are on my phone, they're on my laptop, they're on my old phone, they're in Dropbox. They're on all these different websites and services. And most of these services don't work together. They don't inter-operate. And as a result, my photo library is a mess.
Te institucije stoje na putu inovacije. Koliko vas koristi slike na Fejsbuku, Gugl slike, Instagram? Moje slike su svuda. Ima ih na mom telefonu, na mom laptopu, na mom starom telefonu, u Dropboksu. Nalaze se na svim tim različitim veb-sajtovima i uslugama. Većina tih usluga ne sarađuje međusobno. Ne posluju jedna sa drugom. Kao rezultat, moja kolekcija fotografija je u haosu.
The same thing happens when institutions control the money supply. A lot of these services don't inter-operate, and as a result, this blocks what we can do with payment. And it makes transaction costs go up. So far, we've been through two phases of money. In an analog world, we had to deal with these physical objects, and money moved at a certain speed -- the speed of humans. In a digital world, money can reach much farther and is much faster, but we're at the mercy of these gatekeeper institutions. Money only moves at the speed of banks.
Ista stvar se desi kada institucije kontrolišu zalihe novca. Dosta ovih usluga ne posluje međusobno i kao rezultat, to blokira ono što možemo uraditi sa plaćanjem. To takođe povećava troškove transakcije. Do sada smo prošli kroz dve faze novca. U analognom svetu, morali smo da se bavimo ovim fizičkim predmetima i novac se kretao određenom brzinom - ljudskom brzinom. U digitalnom svetu, novac može mnogo dalje i brže da stigne, ali smo u milosti tih institucija koje kontrolišu pristup. Novac se pokreće samo brzinom banaka.
We're about to enter a new phase of money. The future of money is programmable. When we combine software and currency, money becomes more than just a static unit of value, and we don't have to rely on institutions for security. In a programmable world, we remove humans and institutions from the loop. And when this happens, we won't even feel like we're transacting anymore. Money will be directed by software, and it will just safely and securely flow.
Nadomak smo ulaženja u novu fazu novca. Budućnost novca se može programirati. Kada kombinujemo softver i valutu, novac postaje više od samo statične jedinice vrednosti i ne moramo se oslanjati na institucije zbog bezbednosti. U svetu koji se može programirati, uklanjamo ljude i institucije iz ciklusa. Kada se to dogodi, nećemo više čak ni imati osećaj da vršimo transakcije. Novcem će upravljati softver i samo će bezbedno i sigurno proticati.
Cryptocurrencies are the first step of this evolution. Cryptocurrencies are digital money that isn't run by any government or bank. It's money designed to work in a world without intermediaries. Bitcoin is the most ubiquitous cryptocurrency, but there are hundreds of them. There's Ethereum, Litecoin, Stellar, Dogecoin, and those are just a few of the more popular ones. And these things are real money. The sushi restaurant down my street takes Bitcoin. I have an app on my phone that I can use to buy sashimi. But it's not just for small transactions. In March, there was a transaction that moved around 100,000 bitcoins. That's the equivalent of 40 million US dollars.
Kriptovalute su prvi korak ove evolucije. Kriptovalute su digitalni novac kojim ne upravlja nikakva vlada niti banka. To je novac koji je predviđen da funkcioniše u svetu bez posrednika. Bitkoin je najprisutnija kriptovaluta, ali postoje njih stotine. Tu su itirijum, lajtkoin, stelar, dodžkoin, a to je samo nekoliko najpopularnijih. To je stvaran novac. Suši restoran na kraju moje ulice prima bitkoin. Imam aplikaciju na telefonu koju mogu koristiti da kupim sašimi. Međutim, nije samo za male transakcije. U martu je izvršena transakcija koja je izmestila oko 100 000 bitkoina. To je jednake vrednosti kao 40 miliona američkih dolara.
Cryptocurrencies are based on a special field of mathematics called cryptography. Cryptography is the study of how to secure communication, and it's about two really important things: masking information so it can be hidden in plain sight, and verifying a piece of information's source. Cryptography underpins so many of the systems around us. And it's so powerful that at times the US government has actually classified it as a weapon.
Kriptovalute se zasnivaju na posebnom polju matematike koje se zove kriptografija. Kriptografija je proučavanje načina na koji obezbeđujemo komunikaciju i odnosi se na dve zaista važne stvari - maskiranje informacija tako da se mogu sakriti na vidnom mestu i proveru dela izvora informacije. Kriptografija podržava toliko sistema oko nas. Toliko je moćna da ju je u nekim trenucima vlada SAD-a klasifikovala kao oružje.
During World War II, breaking cryptosystems like Enigma was critical to decoding enemy transmissions and turning the tide of the war. Today, anyone with a modern web browser is running a pretty sophisticated cryptosystem. It's what we use to secure our interactions on the Internet. It's what makes it safe for us to type our passwords in and to send financial information to websites. So what the banks used to give us -- trustworthy digital money transfer -- we can now get with a clever application of cryptography. And this means that we don't have to rely on the banks anymore to secure our transactions. We can do it ourselves.
Za vreme Drugog svetskog rata, provaljivanje kriptosistema kao što je Enigma bilo je kritično za dekodiranje neprijateljske razmene i preokretanje toka rata. Danas, svako ko ima savremeni pretraživač interneta upravlja prilično složenim kriptosistemom. To je ono što koristimo da bismo osigurali naše interakcije na internetu. To je ono zbog čega je za nas bezbedno da unesemo svoju šifru i da veb-sajtovima šaljemo finansijske informacije. Tako ono što su nam banke nekad davale - pouzdan digitalni prenos novca - sada možemo dobiti pametnom primenom kriptografije. To znači da više ne moramo da se oslanjamo na banke da bismo osigurali svoje transakcije. To možemo da uradimo sami.
Bitcoin is based on the very same idea that the Yap used, this collective global knowledge of transfers. In Bitcoin, I spend by transferring Bitcoin, and I get paid when someone transfers Bitcoin to me.
Bitkoin se zasniva na istoj ideji koju Japi koriste, na kolektivnom globalnom saznanju o transferima. Kod bitkoina trošim tako što prebacujem bitkoin, a primam uplatu kada neko meni prebaci bitkoin.
Imagine that we had this magic paper. So the way that this paper works is I can give you a sheet of it and if you write something on it, it will magically appear on my piece as well. Let's say we just give everyone this paper and everyone writes down the transfers that they're doing in the Bitcoin system. All of these transfers get copied around to everyone else's pieces of paper. And I can look at mine and I'll have a list of all of the transfers that are happening in the entire Bitcoin economy. This is actually what's happening with the Bitcoin blockchain, which is a list of all of the transactions in Bitcoin. Except, it's not done through paper. It's done through computer code, running on thousands of networked computers around the world. All of these computers are collectively confirming who owns what Bitcoin. So the Bitcoin blockchain is core to how Bitcoin works.
Zamislite da imamo čarobni papir. Taj papir funkcioniše tako da, ako da vam dam jedan list i napišete nešto na njemu, to će se magično pojaviti i na mom papiru. Recimo da svima damo taj papir i svako zapiše transfere koje izvrše u sistemu bitkoina. Svi ti transferi se kopiraju na svačiji papir. Mogu da pogledam svoj papir i imaću spisak svih transfera koji se dešavaju u čitavoj ekonomiji bitkoina. To je zapravo ono što se dešava sa blokčejnom bitkoina, a to je spisak svih transakcija bitkoina, samo što se ne vrše preko papira. Sprovode se putem kompjuterskog koda koji cirkuliše na hiljadama umreženih kompjutera širom sveta. Svi ti kompjuteri kolektivno potvrđuju ko poseduje koji bitkoin. Tako je bitkoinov blokčejn u srži načina na koji bitkoin funkcioniše.
But where do bitcoins actually come from? Well, the code is designed to create new Bitcoin according to a schedule. And the way that it works is that to get those Bitcoin, I have to solve a puzzle -- a random cryptographic puzzle. Imagine that we had 15 dice, and we were throwing these dice over and over again. Whenever the dice come up all sixes, we say that we win. This is very close to what these computers are all actually doing. They're trying over and over again to land on the right number. And when they do, we say that they've solved the puzzle.
Međutim, odakle bitkoini zapravo potiču? Pa, kod je osmišljen tako da stvara novi bitkon u skladu sa rasporedom. To funkcioniše na taj način što, da bih dobila te bitkoine, moram da rešim zagonetku - nasumičnu kriptografsku zagonetku. Zamislite da imamo 15 kockica i da ih stalno iznova bacamo. Kad god na svim kockicama budu šestice, kažemo da smo pobedili. To je vrlo slično onome što ovi kompjuteri zapravo rade. Stalno iznova pokušavaju da dođu do pravog broja. Kada se to desi, kažemo da su rešili zagonetku.
The computer that solves the puzzle publishes its solution to the rest of the network and collects its reward: new bitcoins. And in the act of solving this puzzle, these computers are actually helping to secure the Bitcoin blockchain and add to the list of transactions.
Kompjuter koji reši zagonetku objavljuje svoje rešenje ostatku mreže i prikuplja svoju nagradu, nove bitkoine. U činu rešavanja ove zagonetke, ovi kompjuteri zapravo pomažu da se osigura bitkoinov blokčejn i pridodaju spisku transakcija.
There are actually people all over the world running this software, and we call them Bitcoin miners. Anyone can become a Bitcoin miner. You can go download the software right now and run it in your computer and try to collect some bitcoins. I can't say that I would recommend it, because right now, the puzzle is so hard and the network is so powerful, that if I tried to mine Bitcoin on my laptop, I probably wouldn't see any for about two million years. The miners, professional miners, use this special hardware that's designed to solve the puzzle really fast. Now, the Bitcoin network and all of this special hardware, there are estimates that the amount of energy it uses is equivalent to that of a small country. So, the first set of cryptocurrencies are a little bit slow and a little bit cumbersome. But the next generation is going to be so much better and so much faster.
Postoje ljudi širom sveta koji upravljaju ovim softverom, a zovemo ih rudari bitkoina. Svako može postati rudar bitkoina. Možete sada skinuti softver, pokrenuti ga na kompjuteru i pokušati da sakupite bitkoine. Ne mogu reći da bih to preporučila, jer je zagonetka u ovom trenutku tako teška i mreža je tako jaka, da ako bih pokušala da kopam bitkoine na svom laptopu, verovatno ne bih našla nijedan jedno dva miliona godina. Profesionalni rudari koriste specijalni hardver koji je osmišljen da veoma brzo reši zagonetku. Za mrežu bitkoina i sav taj specijalni hardver postoje procene da koriste količinu energiju koja je jednaka energiji koju troši manja država. Dakle, prva grupa kriptovaluta je malo spora i malo glomazna. Međutim, sledeća generacija će biti toliko bolja i brža.
Cryptocurrencies are the first step to a world with a global programmable money. And in a world with programmable money, I can pay anyone else securely without having to sign up or ask permission, or do a conversion or worry about my money getting stuck. And I can send money around the world. This is a really amazing thing. It's the idea of permission-less innovation. The Internet caused an explosion of innovation, because it was built upon an open architecture. And just like the Internet changed the way we communicate, programmable money is going to change the way we pay, allocate and decide on value.
Kriptovalute su prvi korak ka svetu sa globalnim novcem koji se može programirati. A u svetu sa novcem koji se može programirati, mogu bilo kome bezbedno platiti a da ne moram da se prijavim, da tražim dozvolu, da vršim konverziju ili da brinem da će mi se novac zaglaviti. Mogu i da šaljem novac širom sveta. Ovo je zaista neverovatno. Radi se o ideji o inovacijama bez davanja dozvole. Internet je doveo do naglog porasta inovacija, jer je izgrađen na otvorenoj arhitekturi. Baš kao što je internet promenio način na koji komuniciramo, novac koji se programira će promeniti način na koji plaćamo, dodeljujemo i odlučujemo o vrednosti.
So what kind of world does programmable money create? Imagine a world where I can rent out my healthcare data to a pharmaceutical company. They can run large-scale data analysis and provide me with a cryptographic proof that shows they're only using my data in a way that we agreed. And they can pay me for what they find out. Instead of signing up for streaming services and getting a cable bill, what if my television analyzed my watching habits and recommended well-priced content that fit within my budget that I would enjoy? Imagine an Internet without ads, because instead of paying with our attention when we view content, we just pay.
Kakvu vrstu sveta stvara novac koji se može programirati? Zamislite svet u kome mogu da iznajmim svoje zdravstvene podatke farmaceutskoj kompaniji. Oni mogu da izvrše obimnu analizu podataka i pruže mi kriptografski dokaz koji pokazuje da koriste moje podatke samo na dogovoreni način. Mogu i da mi plate za ono što otkriju. Umesto prijavljivanja za usluge strimovanja i dobijanja računa za kablovsku, šta ako bi moj televizor analizirao moje navike gledanja i preporučivao sadržaj po dobroj ceni koji se uklapa u moj budžet, a u kome bih uživala? Zamislite internet bez reklama, jer umesto da platimo svojom pažnjom kada gledamo sadržaj, jednostavno platimo.
Interestingly, things like micro-payments are actually going to change the way security works in our world, because once we're better able to allocate value, people will use their money and their energies for more constructive things. If it cost a fraction of a cent to send an email, would we still have spam?
Zanimljivo je da će stvari poput mikroplaćanja promeniti način na koji bezbednost funkcioniše u našem svetu, jer kada budemo bili veštiji u pridavanju vrednosti, ljudi će koristiti svoj novac i energiju za konstruktivnije stvari. Kada bi slanje imejla koštalo delić centa, da li bismo i dalje imali nepoželjne poruke?
We're not at this world yet, but it's coming. Right now, it's like we're in a world that is seeing the first automobile. The first cryptocurrency, like the first car, is slow and hard to understand and hard to use. Digital money, like the horse and carriage, works pretty well, and the whole world economy is built on it. If you were the first person on your block to get a car with an internal combustion engine, your neighbors would probably think you were crazy: "Why would you want this large, clunky machine that breaks down all the time, that lights on fire, and is still slower than a horse?" But we all know how that story turns out.
Nismo još u tom svetu, ali on dolazi. Sada je kao da smo u svetu koji vidi prvi automobil. Prva kriptovaluta, kao prvi auto, je spora, teška za razumevanje i za korišćenje. Digitalni novac, kao konj i kočija, funkcioniše prilično dobro, i celokupni svet ekonomije izgrađen je na njemu. Kada biste bili prva osoba u ulici koja je nabavila auto sa motorom sa unutrašnjim sagorevanjem, vaše komšije bi verovatno pomislile da ste ludi: „Zašto bi hteo ovu veliku, nezgrapnu mašinu koja se stalno kvari i zapali se, a i dalje je sporija od konja?“ No, svi znamo kako se ta priča završava.
We're entering a new era of programmable money. And it's very exciting, but it's also a little bit scary. Cryptocurrencies can be used for illegal transactions, just like cash is used for crime in the world today. When all of our transactions are online, what does that mean for surveillance -- who can see what we do? Who's advantaged in this new world and who isn't? Will I have to start to pay for things that I didn't have to pay for before? Will we all become slaves to algorithms and utility functions?
Ulazimo u novo doba novca koji se programira. To je veoma uzbudljivo, ali i pomalo zastrašujuće. Kriptovalute se mogu koristiti za nezakonite transakcije, baš kao što se gotovina koristi za kriminal u današnjem svetu. Kada su sve naše transakcije onlajn, šta to znači za nadgledanje - ko može da vidi šta radimo? Ko ima prednosti u tom novom svetu, a ko ne? Da li ću morati da počnem da plaćam stvari za koje ranije nisam plaćala? Hoćemo li svi postati robovi algoritama i funkcija korisnosti?
All new technology comes with trade-offs. The Internet brought us a lot of ways to waste time. But it also greatly increased productivity. Mobile phones are annoying because they make me feel like I have to stay connected to work all the time. But they also help me stay connected to friends and family. The new sharing economy is going to eliminate some jobs. But it's also going to create new, flexible forms of employment. With programmable money, we decouple the need for large, trusted institutions from the architecture of the network. And this pushes innovation in money out to the edges, where it belongs. Programmable money democratizes money. And because of this, things are going to change and unfold in ways that we can't even predict.
Svaka nova tehnologija nastupa uz kompromise. Internet nam je doneo mnogo načina za traćenje vremena, ali je takođe znatno uvećao produktivnost. Mobilni telefoni su iritantni jer čine da se osećam kao da stalno moram da budem vezana za posao, ali mi i pomažu da ostanem u vezi sa prijateljima i porodicom. Nova ekonomija deljenja će ukloniti neke poslove. Međutim, takođe će stvoriti nove, fleksibilne oblike zaposlenja. Sa novcem koji se programira, razdvajamo potrebu za velikim, pouzdanim institucijama od arhitekture mreže, a to istiskuje novčane inovacije ka ivicama, tamo gde pripadaju. Novac koji se može programirati demokratizuje novac. Zbog ovoga će se stvari promeniti i razvijati na načine koje ne možemo ni predvideti.
Thank you.
Hvala.
(Applause)
(Aplauz)