I want to tell you about the future of money. Let's start with a story about this culture that lived in Micronesia in the early 1900s, called the Yap. Now, I want to tell you about the Yap because their form of money is really interesting. They use these limestone discs called Rai stones. Now, the Yap don't actually move these Rai stones around or exchange them the way we do with our coins, because Rai stones can get to be pretty massive. The largest is about four tons and 12 feet across. So the Yap just keep track of who owns part of what stone.
Želim vam govoriti o budućnosti novca. Započnimo pričom o kulturi, koja je živjela u Mikroneziji početkom 20. stoljeća, po imenu Yap. Želim vam govoriti o njima, jer je njihov oblik novca vrlo zanimljiv. Koriste vapnenačke diskove koji se zovu kamenje Rai. Yapi zapravo ne nose to kamenje Rai uokolo, niti ih razmjenjuju na način na koji mi koristimo novčiće, jer kamenje Rai može biti prilično krupno. Najveći ima oko četiri tone i promjer oko 3,6 metara. Tako Yapi samo prate tko posjeduje koji dio nekog kamena.
There's a story about these sailors that were transporting a stone across the ocean when they ran into some trouble and the stone actually fell in. The sailors got back to the main island and they told everyone what had happened. And everyone decided that, actually, yes, the sailors had the stone and -- why not? -- it still counted. Even though it was at the bottom of the ocean, it was still part of the Yap economy.
Postoji priča o mornarima, koji su prevozili kamen preko oceana, kada su upali u neku nevolju i kamen je pao u more. Mornari su se vratili na glavni otok i rekli svima što se dogodilo. Svi su odlučili da zapravo, da, mornari su imali kamen i, zašto ne? On još vrijedi. Iako je bio na dnu oceana, i dalje je bio dio Yap ekonomije.
You might think that this was just a small culture a hundred years ago. But things like this happen in the Western world as well, and the Yap actually still use a form of these stones.
Možda mislite da je to bila samo mala kultura prije sto godina. Međutim, ovakve stvari se dešavaju i u zapadnom svijetu, a Yapi, zapravo, i dalje koriste neki oblik ovog kamenja.
In 1932, the Bank of France asked the United States to convert their holdings from dollars into gold. But it was too inconvenient to think about actually shipping all of that gold over to Europe. So instead, someone went to where that gold was being stored and they just labeled it as belonging to France now. And everyone agreed that France owned the gold. It's just like those Rai stones.
1932. Francuska banka je zatražila od SAD-a da pretvore njihovu imovinu iz dolara u zlato. Međutim, bilo je previše nezgodno da bi pomišljali na prijevoz svog tog zlata u Europu. Umjesto toga, netko je otišao tamo gdje je zlato bilo pohranjeno i samo su ga obilježili da ono sada pripada Francuskoj. Svi su se složili da je Francuska vlasnik tog zlata. Baš kao i s kamenjem Rai.
The point I want to make with these two examples is that there's nothing inherently valuable about a dollar or a stone or a coin. The only reason these things have any value is because we've all decided they should. And because we've decided that, they do. Money is about the exchanges and the transactions that we have with each other. Money isn't anything objective. It's about a collective story that we tell each other about value. A collective fiction. And that's a really powerful concept.
Pouka koju želim naglasiti iz ova dva primjera je da ne postoji zadana vrijednost vezana za dolar, kamen ili novčić. Jedini razlog što te stvari imaju ikakvu vrijednost, je zato što smo svi odlučili da trebaju imati. I zato što smo to odlučili, tako i jest. Novac se svodi na razmjene i transakcije koje međusobno obavljamo. Novac nije ništa objektivno. Radi se o kolektivnoj priči o vrijednosti koju pričamo jedni drugima. Kolektivna fikcija. A to je vrlo moćan koncept.
In the past two decades, we've begun to use digital money. So I get paid via direct deposit, I pay my rent via bank transfer, I pay my taxes online. And every month, a small amount of money is deducted from my paycheck and invested in mutual funds in my retirement account. All of these interactions are literally just changing 1's and 0's on computers. There's not even anything physical, like a stone or a coin. Digital money makes it so that I can pay someone around the world in seconds.
U protekla dva desetljeća počeli smo koristiti digitalni novac. Tako ja primam novac putem izravnog depozita, plaćam najam preko bankovnog transfera. Plaćam poreze elektronski. I svaki mjesec, mali iznos novca odbija se od moje plaće i ulaže se u investicijske fondove za moju mirovinu. Sve te transakcije doslovno su izmjenjivanje jedinica i nula na računalima. Ne postoji čak ni nešto fizičko, poput kamena ili novčića. Digitalni novac omogućuje mi plaćanje nekome bilo gdje u svijetu, u svega nekoliko sekundi.
Now when this works, it's because there are large institutions underwriting every 1 or 0 that changes on a computer. And when it doesn't, it's often the fault of those large institutions. Or at least, it's up to them to fix the problem. And a lot of times, they don't. There's a lot of friction in the system. How long did it take the US credit card companies to implement chip and pin? Half my credit cards still don't work in Europe. That's friction. Transferring money across borders and across currencies is really expensive: friction. An entrepreneur in India can set up an online business in minutes, but it's hard for her to get loans and to get paid: friction. Our access to digital money and our ability to freely transact is being held captive by these gatekeepers. And there's a lot of impediments in the system slowing things down.
Kada ovo funkcionira, to je stoga što postoje velike institucije koje osiguravaju svaku jedinicu ili nulu koja se promijeni na računalu. A kada ne funkcionira, to je često krivica tih velikih institucija. Ili je, u najmanju ruku, na njima da riješe problem. A mnogo puta ga ne riješe. Mnogo je otpora u sustavu. Koliko je dugo trebalo kartičarskim kućama SAD-a da sprovedu čipove i PIN-ove? Polovina mojih kreditnih kartica i dalje ne vrijedi u Europi. To je otpor. Prijenos novca preko granica i u različitim valutama zaista je skupo: otpor. Poduzetnica u Indiji može pokrenuti posao elektronski u nekoliko minuta, ali joj je teško dobiti kredit i primiti uplate: otpor. Naš pristup digitalnom novcu i sposobnost slobodnog vršenja transakcija ovi čuvari drže u zatočeništvu. Postoji mnogo prepreka u sustavu koje usporavaju stvari.
That's because digital money isn't really mine, it's entries in databases that belong to my bank, my credit card company or my investment firm. And these companies have the right to say "no." If I'm a PayPal merchant and PayPal wrongly flags me for fraud, that's it. My account gets frozen, and I can't get paid.
To je zato što digitalni novac nije zaista moj, to su unosi u baze podataka koje pripadaju mojoj banci, mojoj kartičarskoj ili mojoj investicijskoj kući. A te kompanije imaju pravo odbiti. Ako trgujem putem PayPal-a, i PayPal me greškom obilježi da sam počinila pronevjeru, to je to. Moj račun postaje zamrznut i ne mogu primati uplate.
These institutions are standing in the way of innovation. How many of you use Facebook photos, Google Photos, Instagram? My photos are everywhere. They are on my phone, they're on my laptop, they're on my old phone, they're in Dropbox. They're on all these different websites and services. And most of these services don't work together. They don't inter-operate. And as a result, my photo library is a mess.
Te institucije stoje inovaciji na putu. Koliko vas koristi slike s Facebooka, Googlea, Instagrama? Moje slike su posvuda. Ima ih na mojem telefonu, laptopu, na mojem starom telefonu, u Dropboxu. Ima ih na svim tim različitim stranicama i uslugama. I većina tih usluga ne surađuje međusobno. Ne rade jedna s drugom. A kao rezultat, moja zbirka fotografija je u rasulu.
The same thing happens when institutions control the money supply. A lot of these services don't inter-operate, and as a result, this blocks what we can do with payment. And it makes transaction costs go up. So far, we've been through two phases of money. In an analog world, we had to deal with these physical objects, and money moved at a certain speed -- the speed of humans. In a digital world, money can reach much farther and is much faster, but we're at the mercy of these gatekeeper institutions. Money only moves at the speed of banks.
Isto se dešava kada institucije nadziru opskrbu novcem. Dosta ovih usluga ne surađuje međusobno i kao rezultat, to blokira ono što možemo učiniti plaćanjem. A to povećava troškove transakcije. Do sada smo prošli kroz dvije faze novca. U analognom svijetu, morali smo se baviti ovim fizičkim predmetima i novac se kretao određenom brzinom -- ljudskom brzinom. U digitalnom svijetu, novac stiže dalje i brži je, ali smo u milosti tih institucija koje nadziru pristup. Novac se pokreće samo brzinom banaka.
We're about to enter a new phase of money. The future of money is programmable. When we combine software and currency, money becomes more than just a static unit of value, and we don't have to rely on institutions for security. In a programmable world, we remove humans and institutions from the loop. And when this happens, we won't even feel like we're transacting anymore. Money will be directed by software, and it will just safely and securely flow.
Blizu smo ulaska u novu fazu novca. Budućnost novca se može programirati. Kada kombiniramo softver i valutu, novac postaje više od samo statične jedinice vrijednosti te se ne moramo oslanjati na institucije radi sigurnosti. U takvom svijetu, isključuju se ljudi i institucije. A kada se to dogodi, nećemo više čak ni imati osjećaj da obavljamo transakcije. Novcem će upravljati softver i samo će sigurno protjecati.
Cryptocurrencies are the first step of this evolution. Cryptocurrencies are digital money that isn't run by any government or bank. It's money designed to work in a world without intermediaries. Bitcoin is the most ubiquitous cryptocurrency, but there are hundreds of them. There's Ethereum, Litecoin, Stellar, Dogecoin, and those are just a few of the more popular ones. And these things are real money. The sushi restaurant down my street takes Bitcoin. I have an app on my phone that I can use to buy sashimi. But it's not just for small transactions. In March, there was a transaction that moved around 100,000 bitcoins. That's the equivalent of 40 million US dollars.
Kriptovalute su prvi korak te evolucije. Kriptovalute su digitalni novac kojim ne upravlja nikakva vlada niti banka. To je novac koji je predviđen da funkcionira u svijetu bez posrednika. Bitcoin je najprisutnija kriptovaluta, ali postoje njih stotine. Postoje Ethereum, Litecoin, Stellar, Dogecoin, a to je samo nekoliko najpopularnijih. I to je stvaran novac. Sushi restoran u mojoj ulici prima Bitcoin. Imam aplikaciju na telefonu preko koje mogu kupiti sashimi. No, to nije samo za male transakcije. U ožujku je izvršena transakcija u iznosu od oko 100.000 bitcoina. To odgovara vrijednosti od 40 milijuna američkih dolara.
Cryptocurrencies are based on a special field of mathematics called cryptography. Cryptography is the study of how to secure communication, and it's about two really important things: masking information so it can be hidden in plain sight, and verifying a piece of information's source. Cryptography underpins so many of the systems around us. And it's so powerful that at times the US government has actually classified it as a weapon.
Kriptovalute se temelje na posebnom polju matematike, koje se zove kriptografija. Kriptografija je proučavanje načina kako osigurati komunikaciju i odnosi se na dvije, zaista važne stvari: maskiranje informacija, tako da se mogu sakriti na vidnom mjestu i provjeru djelića izvora informacije. Kriptografija podržava toliko mnogo sustava oko nas. Toliko je moćna da ju je u nekim trenucima vlada SAD-a čak klasificirala kao oružje.
During World War II, breaking cryptosystems like Enigma was critical to decoding enemy transmissions and turning the tide of the war. Today, anyone with a modern web browser is running a pretty sophisticated cryptosystem. It's what we use to secure our interactions on the Internet. It's what makes it safe for us to type our passwords in and to send financial information to websites. So what the banks used to give us -- trustworthy digital money transfer -- we can now get with a clever application of cryptography. And this means that we don't have to rely on the banks anymore to secure our transactions. We can do it ourselves.
Za vrijeme Drugog svjetskog rata, provaljivanje kriptosistema poput Enigme bilo je ključno za dekodiranje neprijateljske razmjene i preokretanje tijeka rata. Danas, svatko tko koristi neki pretraživač, pokreće prilično složeni kriptosustav. To je ono što koristimo kako bismo osigurali naše interakcije na internetu. To je ono zbog čega sigurno unosimo svoje lozinke i šaljemo financijske podatke. I tako ono što su nam banke nekada davale, pouzdan digitalni prijenos novca, sada možemo dobiti pametnom primjenom kriptografije. To znači da se više ne moramo oslanjati na banke kako bismo osigurali transakcije. Možemo to i sami.
Bitcoin is based on the very same idea that the Yap used, this collective global knowledge of transfers. In Bitcoin, I spend by transferring Bitcoin, and I get paid when someone transfers Bitcoin to me.
Bitcoin se temelji na istoj ideji koju je koristila kultura Yap, na kolektivnom globalnom znanju o transferima. Kod Bitcoina, trošim tako što prebacujem Bitcoin, a primam uplatu kada netko meni prebaci Bitcoin.
Imagine that we had this magic paper. So the way that this paper works is I can give you a sheet of it and if you write something on it, it will magically appear on my piece as well. Let's say we just give everyone this paper and everyone writes down the transfers that they're doing in the Bitcoin system. All of these transfers get copied around to everyone else's pieces of paper. And I can look at mine and I'll have a list of all of the transfers that are happening in the entire Bitcoin economy. This is actually what's happening with the Bitcoin blockchain, which is a list of all of the transactions in Bitcoin. Except, it's not done through paper. It's done through computer code, running on thousands of networked computers around the world. All of these computers are collectively confirming who owns what Bitcoin. So the Bitcoin blockchain is core to how Bitcoin works.
Zamislite da imamo čarobni papir. Taj papir funkcionira na način da vam dam jedan list i ako napišete nešto na njemu, to će se pojaviti i na mojem papiru. Recimo da svima damo takav papir i svatko zapiše prijenose koje izvrši u sustavu Bitcoina. Svi ti prijenosi kopiraju se i na dio papira svih ostalih. I ako pogledam svoj, imat ću popis svih prijenosa koji se dešavaju u cjelokupnoj ekonomiji Bitcoina. To je, zapravo, ono što se dešava s blockchainom Bitcoina, koji je popis svih transakcija Bitcoina. Samo što se ne vrši preko papira. Provodi se putem računalnog kôda, na tisućama umreženih računala diljem svijeta. Sva ta računala kolektivno potvrđuju tko posjeduje koji Bitcoin. Tako je blockchain Bitcoina sama bit onoga kako Bitcoin funkcionira.
But where do bitcoins actually come from? Well, the code is designed to create new Bitcoin according to a schedule. And the way that it works is that to get those Bitcoin, I have to solve a puzzle -- a random cryptographic puzzle. Imagine that we had 15 dice, and we were throwing these dice over and over again. Whenever the dice come up all sixes, we say that we win. This is very close to what these computers are all actually doing. They're trying over and over again to land on the right number. And when they do, we say that they've solved the puzzle.
No, odakle Bitcoini, zapravo, potječu? Pa, kôd je osmišljen tako da stvara novi Bitcoin prema određenom rasporedu. A to radi na način da, kako bih dobila te Bitcoine, moram riješiti zagonetku -- nasumičnu kriptografsku zagonetku. Zamislite da imamo 15 kockica i da ih stalno iznova bacamo. Svaki put kada na svim kockicama dobijemo šestice, kažemo da smo pobijedili. To je vrlo slično onome što ova računala zapravo rade. Stalno iznova pokušavaju doći do pravog broja. I kada uspiju, kažemo da su riješili zagonetku.
The computer that solves the puzzle publishes its solution to the rest of the network and collects its reward: new bitcoins. And in the act of solving this puzzle, these computers are actually helping to secure the Bitcoin blockchain and add to the list of transactions.
Računalo koje riješi zagonetku, objavljuje svoje rješenje ostatku mreže i prikuplja svoju nagradu, nove Bitcoine. Kroz rješavanje ove zagonetke, ta računala, zapravo, pomažu osigurati blockchain Bitcoina te dodavati popis transakcija.
There are actually people all over the world running this software, and we call them Bitcoin miners. Anyone can become a Bitcoin miner. You can go download the software right now and run it in your computer and try to collect some bitcoins. I can't say that I would recommend it, because right now, the puzzle is so hard and the network is so powerful, that if I tried to mine Bitcoin on my laptop, I probably wouldn't see any for about two million years. The miners, professional miners, use this special hardware that's designed to solve the puzzle really fast. Now, the Bitcoin network and all of this special hardware, there are estimates that the amount of energy it uses is equivalent to that of a small country. So, the first set of cryptocurrencies are a little bit slow and a little bit cumbersome. But the next generation is going to be so much better and so much faster.
Postoje ljudi diljem svijeta koji upravljaju ovim softverom, i zovemo ih rudarima Bitcoina. Svatko može postati rudar Bitcoina. Možete sada skinuti softver pokrenuti ga na računalu i pokušati sakupiti Bitcoine. Ne mogu reći da bih to preporučila, jer trenutno je zagonetka toliko teška, a mreža tako jaka, da ako bih pokušala tražiti Bitcoine sa svog laptopa, vjerojatno u nekih dva milijuna godina ne bih našla niti jedan. Profesionalni rudari koriste poseban hardver, koji je osmišljen da vrlo brzo riješi zagonetku. Za mrežu Bitcoina i sav taj posebni hardver postoje procjene da koriste količinu energije jednake energiji koju troši neka mala država. Dakle, prva grupa kriptovaluta malo je spora i nezgrapna. No, sljedeća generacija će biti mnogo bolja i brža.
Cryptocurrencies are the first step to a world with a global programmable money. And in a world with programmable money, I can pay anyone else securely without having to sign up or ask permission, or do a conversion or worry about my money getting stuck. And I can send money around the world. This is a really amazing thing. It's the idea of permission-less innovation. The Internet caused an explosion of innovation, because it was built upon an open architecture. And just like the Internet changed the way we communicate, programmable money is going to change the way we pay, allocate and decide on value.
Kriptovalute su prvi korak prema svijetu globalnog novca koji se može programirati. A u svijetu s novcem koji se može programirati, mogu bilo kome sigurno platiti, bez da se moram prijaviti, ili tražiti dopuštenje, raditi konverziju ili brinuti da će mi novac negdje zaglaviti. Mogu i slati novac širom svijeta. To je zaista nevjerojatna stvar. To je ideja o inovaciji bez davanja dopuštenja. Internet je doveo do naglog rasta inovacija, jer je izgrađen na otvorenoj arhitekturi. Baš kao što je internet promijenio naš način komunikacije, novac koji se programira promijenit će način na koji plaćamo, doznačavamo i odlučujemo o vrijednosti.
So what kind of world does programmable money create? Imagine a world where I can rent out my healthcare data to a pharmaceutical company. They can run large-scale data analysis and provide me with a cryptographic proof that shows they're only using my data in a way that we agreed. And they can pay me for what they find out. Instead of signing up for streaming services and getting a cable bill, what if my television analyzed my watching habits and recommended well-priced content that fit within my budget that I would enjoy? Imagine an Internet without ads, because instead of paying with our attention when we view content, we just pay.
Kakav svijet stvara novac koji se može programirati? Zamislite svijet u kojem mogu iznajmiti svoje zdravstvene podatke farmaceutskoj kompaniji. Mogli bi pokrenuti široku analizu podataka i pružiti mi kriptografski dokaz, koji pokazuje da koriste moje podatke na način na koji smo se dogovorili. A oni mi mogu platiti za ono što otkriju. Umjesto prijavljivanja za usluge streaminga i dobivanja računa za TV, šta ako bi moj TV prijemnik analizirao moje navike gledanja i preporučio sadržaj po dobroj cijeni, koji najbolje odgovara mom budžetu, a u kome bih uživala? Zamislite internet bez oglasa, jer umjesto da platimo svojom pažnjom kada gledamo sadržaj, jednostavno samo platimo.
Interestingly, things like micro-payments are actually going to change the way security works in our world, because once we're better able to allocate value, people will use their money and their energies for more constructive things. If it cost a fraction of a cent to send an email, would we still have spam?
Zanimljivo, stvari poput mikroplaćanja zapravo će promijeniti način na koji sigurnost funkcionira u svijetu, jer jednom kada budemo bolji u raspodjeli vrijednosti, ljudi će koristiti svoj novac i energiju za konstruktivnije stvari. Kada bi slanje e-maila stajalo djelić centa, bismo li i dalje imali neželjenu poštu?
We're not at this world yet, but it's coming. Right now, it's like we're in a world that is seeing the first automobile. The first cryptocurrency, like the first car, is slow and hard to understand and hard to use. Digital money, like the horse and carriage, works pretty well, and the whole world economy is built on it. If you were the first person on your block to get a car with an internal combustion engine, your neighbors would probably think you were crazy: "Why would you want this large, clunky machine that breaks down all the time, that lights on fire, and is still slower than a horse?" But we all know how that story turns out.
Nismo još u tom svijetu, ali on dolazi. Trenutno, kao da smo u svijetu koji vidi prvi automobil. Prva kriptovaluta je, kao i prvi auto, spora, teško shvatljiva i teška za korištenje. Digitalni novac, kao konj i kočija, rade prilično dobro, i cjelokupna svjetska ekonomija je izgrađena na njemu. Ako biste bili prva osoba u svom kvartu, koja je nabavila auto s motorom na unutarnje sagorijevanje, vaši susjedi bi vjerojatno pomislili da ste ludi: "Zašto bi poželio ovako veliku i nezgrapnu mašinu, koja se stalno kvari i pali se, a i dalje je sporija od konja?" No, svi znamo kako ta priča završava.
We're entering a new era of programmable money. And it's very exciting, but it's also a little bit scary. Cryptocurrencies can be used for illegal transactions, just like cash is used for crime in the world today. When all of our transactions are online, what does that mean for surveillance -- who can see what we do? Who's advantaged in this new world and who isn't? Will I have to start to pay for things that I didn't have to pay for before? Will we all become slaves to algorithms and utility functions?
Ulazimo u novo doba novca koji se programira. To je veoma uzbudljivo, ali i pomalo zastrašujuće. Kriptovalute se mogu koristiti za nezakonite transakcije, baš kao što se gotovina koristi za kriminal u današnjem svijetu. Kada su sve naše transakcije elektronske, šta to znači za nadzor -- tko može vidjeti što mi radimo? Tko je u prednosti u ovom novom svijetu, a tko nije? Hoću li morati početi plaćati nešto što prije nisam morala? Hoćemo li svi postati robovi algoritama i funkcija korisnosti?
All new technology comes with trade-offs. The Internet brought us a lot of ways to waste time. But it also greatly increased productivity. Mobile phones are annoying because they make me feel like I have to stay connected to work all the time. But they also help me stay connected to friends and family. The new sharing economy is going to eliminate some jobs. But it's also going to create new, flexible forms of employment. With programmable money, we decouple the need for large, trusted institutions from the architecture of the network. And this pushes innovation in money out to the edges, where it belongs. Programmable money democratizes money. And because of this, things are going to change and unfold in ways that we can't even predict.
Sa svakom novom tehnologijom dolaze i kompromisi. Internet nam je donio mnogo načina za gubljenje vremena. No, isto tako je i jako povećao produktivnost. Mobiteli su iritantni, jer zbog njih osjećam kao da moram ostati vezana za posao cijelo vrijeme. Ali, pomažu mi i da ostanem povezana s prijateljima i obitelji. Zbog nove ekonomije dijeljenja nestat će neki poslovi. No, stvorit će i nove, fleksibilne oblike zaposlenja. Pomoću ovakvog novca koji se programira, razdvajamo potrebu za velikim, pouzdanim institucijama od arhitekture mreže. A to tjera inovacije novca do ruba, gdje i pripada. Novac koji se može programirati demokratizira novac. I zbog toga će se stvari promijeniti i razvijati, na načine koje ne možemo ni predvidjeti.
Thank you.
Hvala vam.
(Applause)
(Pljesak)