There's a question I've been puzzling over and writing about for pretty much all of my adult life. Why do some large-scale crises jolt us awake and inspire us to change and evolve while others might jolt us a bit, but then it's back to sleep? Now, the kind of shocks I'm talking about are big -- a cataclysmic market crash, rising fascism, an industrial accident that poisons on a massive scale. Now, events like this can act like a collective alarm bell. Suddenly, we see a threat, we get organized. We discover strength and resolve that was previously unimaginable. It's as if we're no longer walking, but leaping. Except, our collective alarm seems to be busted. Faced with a crisis, we often fall apart, regress and that becomes a window for antidemocratic forces to push societies backwards, to become more unequal and more unstable.
有一个我一直在思考和写作的问题 占据了我成年的大部分生活。 为什么一些大规模的危机 可以警醒并且启示我们 去改变和进化, 而一些其他的事件却只能 造成一些小小的扰动, 然后很快归于平静? 我现在在说的危机是巨大的, 是一个灾难性的市场崩盘, 一种日渐抬头的法西斯主义, 或者一个毒害了无数人的 工业界事故。 这样的事件可以 被当作一个集体的警钟。 即使突然遇到威胁, 我们也能沉着应对。 我们找到了前所未有 的力量和决心。 就像面对威胁,我们 不再靠走,而是飞跃。 然而, 我们共同的警钟 似乎被毁坏了。 面对危机,我们总是 崩溃,倒退, 成为反民主力量的一扇窗, 使得社会退步, 变得更不平等,更不稳定。
Ten years ago, I wrote about this backwards process and I called it the "Shock Doctrine." So what determines which road we navigate through crisis? Whether we grow up fast and find those strengths or whether we get knocked back. And I'd say this is a pressing question these days. Because things are pretty shocking out there. Record-breaking storms, drowning cities, record-breaking fires threatening to devour them, thousands of migrants disappearing beneath the waves. And openly supremacist movements rising, in many of our countries there are torches in the streets. And now there's no shortage of people who are sounding the alarm. But as a society, I don't think we can honestly say that we're responding with anything like the urgency that these overlapping crises demand from us. And yet, we know from history that it is possible for crisis to catalyze a kind of evolutionary leap.
十年前,我写了一本 关于这种倒退的书, 题目是《休克主义: 灾难资本主义的兴起》。 那么,什么决定了 我们选择哪条路来度过危机呢? 无论是我们能快速成长并获得力量 还是被其击败。 这可以说是当今一个很紧迫的问题。 想想那些触目惊心的灾难: 史无前例的暴风雨, 被洪水淹没的城市, 破纪录的大火灾吞噬了一切, 数以千计的移民 被海浪吞噬。 公开的种族优越主义运动开始抬头, 在许多国家,满街都是火炬。 我们也绝不缺少 发出警告的人。 但是,作为一个社会, 我不觉得我们可以诚实地说, 我们对任何一件灾难 都做出了紧急回应, 就像这些重复发生的灾难 要求我们做的一样。 我们已经从历史中得知, 危机可能 催化某种革命性的飞跃。
And one of the most striking examples of this progressive power of crisis is the Great Crash of 1929. There was the shock of the sudden market collapse followed by all of the aftershocks, the millions who lost everything thrown onto breadlines. And this was taken by many as a message that the system itself was broken. And many people listened and they leapt into action. In the United States and elsewhere, governments began to weave a safety net so that the next time there was a crash there would be programs like social security to catch people. There were huge job-creating public investments in housing, electrification and transit. And there was a wave of aggressive regulation to reign in the banks.
其中关于这种危机的进步力量, 最惊人的例子之一是 1929 年的经济大崩溃。 突然的市场崩盘打击 和紧随而来的余波 让数以百万的人失去一切, 不得不排队领救济。 这个打击被许多人理解为 系统本身被破坏的信号。 许多人听了进去, 并且采取了行动。 在美国和其他地区, 许多政府开始建设安全保障网, 以保证下次发生这类冲击时 会有像社会保障之类的项目 来保护人们。 有大量提供就业的 公共投资项目 投资了房屋,供电和运输。 还有一波强势的法规 被用来管理银行。
Now, these reforms were far from perfect. In the US, African American workers, immigrants and women were largely excluded. But the Depression period, along with the transformation of allied nations and economies during the World War II effort, show us that it is possible for complex societies to rapidly transform themselves in the face of a collective threat. Now, when we tell this story of the 1929 Crash, that's usually the formula that it follows -- that there was a shock and it induced a wake-up call and that produced a leap to a safer place.
这些改革还很不完善。 在美国, 非裔美国工人,移民和妇女 被很大程度地排除在外。 但在大萧条时期, 伴随着同盟国 和经济在二战时期 的转型, 这告诉了我们,在复杂社会 面对集体威胁时, 快速转型是可能的。 当我们讲述 1929 年大崩溃的故事时, 通常使用这样的公式, 它遵循—— 一个震惊时间, 它为我们敲响了警钟, 二者结合会带领我们 飞跃到更安全的地方。
Now, if that's really what it took, then why isn't it working anymore? Why do today's non-stop shocks -- why don't they spur us into action? Why don't they produce leaps? Especially when it comes to climate change.
如果真是这样, 这个公式现在为什么没有用了? 为什么如今世界震荡不停, 为什么它们不鞭策我们采取行动? 为什么它们不催生飞跃, 尤其是面对气候变化时?
So I want to talk to you today about what I think is a much more complete recipe for deep transformation catalyzed by shocking events. And I'm going to focus on two key ingredients that usually get left out of the history books.
所以今天我想要讨论的是 一个我认为更完整的, 由震惊事件促成 的深层转变的奥秘。 我将专注讨论两个很关键, 却通常被历史书遗忘的成分。
One has to do with imagination, the other with organization. Because it's in the interplay between the two where revolutionary power lies. So let's start with imagination. The victories of the New Deal didn't happen just because suddenly everybody understood the brutalities of laissez-faire. This was a time, let's remember, of tremendous ideological ferment, when many different ideas about how to organize societies did battle with one another in the public square. A time when humanity dared to dream big about different kinds of futures, many of them organized along radically egalitarian lines. Now, not all of these ideas were good but this was an era of explosive imagining. This meant that the movements demanding change knew what they were against -- crushing poverty, widening inequality -- but just as important, they knew what they were for. They had their "no" and they had their "yes," too. They also had very different models of political organization than we do today.
一个和想象力有关, 另一个和组织有关。 因为革命力量就在这两者之间 的相互作用中。 让我们先从想象力说起。 罗斯福新政的胜利 并非源于突然间 大家明白了 放任自由主义的无情。 要记住,这是惊人的 思想意识形态酝酿的时期, 许多不同的关于 怎样管理社会的想法 在公共广场相互斗争。 人类敢于去 梦想不同的未来 其中许多都是按照 极端平等主义的路线组织起来的。 也许,不是所有的想法都是好的, 但是这是一个 想象爆炸的时代。 这意味着, 这些运动要求改变, 知道他们要反对什么—— 粉碎贫穷,扩大平等—— 同样重要的是, 他们知道自己的目的。 他们有说 “不” 的时候, 他们也有说 “是”的时候。 相比现在,他们也有不同 的政治组织形式。
For decades, social and labor movements had been building up their membership bases, linking their causes together and increasing their strength. Which meant that by the time the Crash happened, there was already a movement that was large and broad enough to, for instance, stage strikes that didn't just shut down factories, but shut down entire cities. The big policy wins of the New Deal were actually offered as compromises. Because the alternative seemed to be revolution.
数十年来, 社会和工人运动 已经建立起他们的成员基础, 结合共同的目标, 并提升了他们的力量。 这意味着在崩溃发生时, 已经有一个 足够大而广泛的运动, 例如去举行罢工, 不仅关闭了工厂, 甚至使整个城市停工。 罗斯福新政的政治大胜利 实际上是作为妥协提出的。 因为新政之外的选择似乎只有革命。
So, let's adjust that equation from earlier. A shocking event plus utopian imagination plus movement muscle, that's how we get a real leap.
那么让我们调整下 之前提到的公式。 一个震惊事件, 加上乌托邦式的想象, 再加上运动作为肌肉, 这就是我们如何实现 一个真正的飞跃。
So how does our present moment measure up? We are living, once again, at a time of extraordinary political engagements. Politics is a mass obsession. Progressive movements are growing and resisting with tremendous courage. And yet, we know from history that "no" is not enough. Now, there are some "yeses" out there that are emerging. And they're actually getting a lot bolder quickly. Where climate activists used to talk about changing light bulbs, now we're pushing for 100 percent of our energy to come from the sun, wind and waves, and to do it fast. Movements catalyzed by police violence against black bodies are calling for an end to militarized police, mass incarceration and even for reparations for slavery. Students are not just opposing tuition increases, but from Chile to Canada to the UK, they are calling for free tuition and debt cancellation. And yet, this still doesn't add up to the kind of holistic and universalist vision of a different world than our predecessors had. So why is that?
那么我们现有的运动 该怎样符合这个标准呢? 再强调一次,我们正生活在 在一个政治参与度惊人的时代。 政治是大众的执念。 进步的运动在成长, 在以惊人的勇气抗争着。 但是,从历史中我们得知, 只有 “不” 是不够的。 现在,有一些 “是” 出现了, 并且它们正在 快速地变得更加醒目。 气候活动家过去常常 谈论改变灯泡, 现在我们正在推动 百分百可再生的, 来自于太阳,风,和海浪的能源, 而且动作要快。 警察对黑人实施暴力所引发的运动 正在呼吁结束军事化政治, 大规模监禁, 甚至对奴隶制进行赔偿。 学生不仅反对提高学费, 从智利到加拿大再到美国, 他们也在要求 免除学费和消除债务。 可是,这些仍然没有达到 我们的前辈对一个不同世界 的整体和普遍主义的愿景。 为什么?
Well, very often we think about political change in defined compartments these days. Environment in one box, inequality in another, racial and gender justice in a couple of other boxes, education over here, health over there. And within each compartment, there are thousands upon thousands of different groups and NGOs, each competing with one another for credit, name recognition and of course, resources. In other words, we act a lot like corporate brands. Now, this is often referred to as the problem of silos. Now, silos are understandable. They carve up our complex world into manageable chunks. They help us feel less overwhelmed. But in the process, they also train our brains to tune out when somebody else's issue comes up and when somebody else's issue needs our help and support. And they also keep us from seeing glaring connections between our issues.
如今,我们经常思考在界定好的区域里 发生的政治变革。 环境问题在一个盒子里, 不平等问题在另一个盒子里, 种族和性别公平问题 在其他几个盒子里, 教育在这里, 健康在那里。 在每一个区域里, 都有数以千计不同的 团体和非政府组织, 为了信誉,名字的认可度—— 当然,还有资源——而互相竞争。 换句话说, 我们表现得很像企业品牌。 这个现象通常被称为筒仓问题。 筒仓是可以理解的。 它把我们复杂的世界 分成了方便管理的区块, 帮助我们减少了不知所措的情况。 但是在这个过程中, 它们也会训练我们的大脑, 当他人遇到问题 需要我们帮助的和支持时, 让我们的大脑不去理会。 它同时还妨碍了我们看到 我们的问题之间直接明显的联系。
So for instance, the people fighting poverty and inequality rarely talk about climate change. Even though we see time and again that it's the poorest of people who are the most vulnerable to extreme weather. The climate change people rarely talk about war and occupation. Even though we know that the thirst for fossil fuels has been a major driver of conflict. The environmental movement has gotten better at pointing out that the nations that are getting hit hardest by climate change are populated overwhelmingly by black and brown people. But when black lives are treated as disposable in prisons, in schools and on the streets, these connections are too rarely made.
例如,和贫困与不平等对抗的人 很少谈及气候变化。 即使我们一次又一次地看到, 最贫穷的人 正是那些在 极端天气面前最脆弱的人。 谈论气候改变的人 很少谈论战争和工作。 即使我们知道 对化石燃料的需求 是冲突的主要根源。 环保运动已经更好地指出了, 受到气候变化影响最大的国家 正是那些黑色人种 和棕色人种为主的国家。 但是,当黑人的生命 在监狱、学校和大街上 被视为可有可无的东西时, 这些联系就很少被注意到。
The walls between our silos also means that our solutions, when they emerge, are also disconnected from each other. So progressives now have this long list of demands that I was mentioning earlier, those "yeses." But what we're still missing is that coherent picture of the world we're fighting for. What it looks like, what it feels like, and most of all, what its core values are. And that really matters. Because when large-scale crises hit us and we are confronted with the need to leap somewhere safer, there isn't any agreement on what that place is. And leaping without a destination looks a lot like jumping up and down.
树立在我们筒仓之间的高墙 还意味着我们的解决方案在出现时, 彼此之间也缺乏联系。 进步人士现在有一个 包含我之前提到的要求的长清单, 就是那些 “是”。 但是我们还缺少 我们为之奋斗的世界 的连贯画面。 它看起来怎么样,感觉起来怎么样, 最重要的,它的核心价值是什么? 这真的很重要。 因为当大规模危机袭来时, 我们将会面临着飞跃去 一个更加安全的地方的需求, 关于那应该是一个怎样的地方, 我们并没有达成一致。 而没有目的地的飞跃, 只会看起来像上蹿下跳。
(Laughter)
(笑声)
Fortunately, there are all kinds of conversations and experiments going on to try to overcome these divisions that are holding us back. And I want to finish by talking about one of them.
幸运的是,有各种各样的对话 和实验正在进行, 试图克服这些 阻止我们飞跃的分歧。 我想以其中一个例子 来结束我的演讲。
A couple of years ago, a group of us in Canada decided that we were hitting the limits of what we could accomplish in our various silos. So we locked ourselves in a room for two days, and we tried to figure out what bound us together. In that room were people who rarely get face to face. There were indigenous elders with hipsters working on transit. There was the head of Greenpeace with a union leader representing oil workers and loggers. There were faith leaders and feminist icons and many more. And we gave ourselves a pretty ambitious assignment: agreeing on a short statement describing the world after we win. The world after we've already made the transition to a clean economy and a much fairer society. In other words, instead of trying to scare people about what will happen if we don't act, we decided to try to inspire them with what could happen if we did act.
几年前, 我们几个人在加拿大 认为,我们已经达到了 我们在不同筒仓所能达到的极限。 所以我们把我们自己 锁在一间房间里两天, 试图弄清楚是什么 将我们连接在一起。 在那个房间里是一些 平时很少能面对面的人们, 有土生土长的老人 和在运输业工作的嬉皮士们。 有绿色和平组织的负责人 和代表石油工人 和伐木工人的工会领袖。 有宗教领袖和女权主义 的代表人物,等等。 我们给了自己一个雄心勃勃的任务: 同意一个简单的声明, 描述我们胜利以后的世界, 一个已经向清洁经济转型, 实现了一个更公平社会的世界。 换句话说, 与其试图恐吓人们 如果不采取行动就会发生什么, 我们决定尝试激励他们, 如果采取行动会发生什么。
Sensible people are always telling us that change needs to come in small increments. That politics is the art of the possible and that we can't let the perfect be the enemy of the good. Well, we rejected all of that. We wrote a manifesto, and we called it "The Leap." I have to tell you that agreeing on our common "yes" across such diversity of experiences and against a backdrop of a lot of painful history was not easy work. But it was also pretty thrilling. Because as soon as we gave ourselves permission to dream, those threads connecting much of our work became self-evident.
明智人士总是告诉我们, 变化需要循序渐进。 政治是可能性的艺术, 我们不能让追求完美 成为“好”的敌人。 然而,我们对此嗤之以鼻。 我们写下了一份 我们称之为“飞跃”的声明, 我必须告诉各位, 在这么多不同的经历中, 在这么多痛苦的历史背景下, 达成我们共同的“是” 不是一件容易的事。 但是它也是非常令人兴奋的。 因为一旦我们允许自己去梦想, 那些连接我们工作的思路 就会变得不言自明。
We realized, for instance, that the bottomless quest for profits that is forcing so many people to work more than 50 hours a week, without security, and that is fueling this epidemic of despair is the same quest for bottomless profits and endless growth that is at the heart of our ecological crisis and is destabilizing our planet. It also became clear what we need to do. We need to create a culture of care-taking. In which no one and nowhere is thrown away. In which the inherent value of all people and every ecosystem is foundational. So we came up with this people's platform, and don't worry, I'm not going to read the whole thing to you out loud -- if you're interested, you can read it at theleap.org. But I will give you a taste of what we came up with.
我们认识到,例如, 正在强迫许多人 在没有安全保障的情况下 每周工作超过 50 个小时, 同时加剧了这种绝望感蔓延 的对利润无休止的追求, 同样也在追求无底的利润 和无休止的增长, 这是我们的生态危机的核心, 正在破坏我们的星球。 我们需要怎么做 也变得清晰起来。 我们需要去创造 一种关爱文化, 其中没有任何人, 没有任何地方会被抛弃, 所有人和每一额生态系统 的价值都是最基本的。 所以我们推出了这个公众平台, 别担心,我不会 把整个内容大声读出来—— 如果你感兴趣, 可以登陆 theleap.org。 但是我会简单介绍一下 我们的主张。
So we call for that 100 percent renewable economy in a hurry, but we went further. Calls for new kinds of trade deals, a robust debate on a guaranteed annual income, full rights for immigrant workers, getting corporate money out of politics, free universal day care, electoral reform and more. What we discovered is that a great many of us are looking for permission to act less like brands and more like movements. Because movements don't care about credit. They want good ideas to spread far and wide. What I love about The Leap is that it rejects the idea that there is this hierarchy of crisis, and it doesn't ask anyone to prioritize one struggle over another or wait their turn. And though it was birthed in Canada, we've discovered that it travels well. Since we launched, The Leap has been picked up around the world with similar platforms, being written from Nunavut to Australia, to Norway to the UK and the US, where it's gaining a lot of traction in cities like Los Angeles, where it's being localized. And also in rural communities that are traditionally very conservative, but where politics is failing the vast majority of people.
我们呼吁加速实现 百分百的可再生能源, 但是除此之外, 我们也呼吁新的贸易交易, 一个强大的关于基本年收入的辩论, 移民工人的全部权利, 从政治中取得企业资本, 免费的普遍性日托, 选举改革等等。 我们的发现是, 我们中的大部分 正在寻找行动起来更少像品牌, 更多像运动的许可。 因为运动不在乎名声, 他们想要的是好的想法 被广泛传播。 关于 “飞跃”,我喜欢的是, 它不赞同危机分等级的想法, 也不要求任何人把一场斗争 优先放在另一个之前 或者等着轮到他们。 虽然它诞生在加拿大, 但是我们发现它传播得很好。 自从推出, “飞跃” 已经被全世界 类似的平台所接受, 从加拿大的努勒维特到澳大利亚, 挪威,英国和美国, 在美国许多地方得到了推动, 例如在洛杉矶 被成功本土化; 还有传统保守的乡村, 那里的大部分人 对政治现状非常不满。
Here's what I've learned from studying shocks and disasters for two decades. Crises test us. We either fall apart or we grow up fast. Finding new reserves of strength and capacity that we never knew we had. The shocking events that fill us with dread today can transform us, and they can transform the world for the better. But first we need to picture the world that we're fighting for. And we have to dream it up together. Right now, every alarm in our house is going off simultaneously. It's time to listen. It's time to leap.
这二十年来,我从研究 震惊时间和灾难中学到: 危机能够考研我们。 我们要么分崩离析, 要么加快成长。 发现我们从不知道的自己 所拥有的新的力量和能力储蓄。 如今使我们充满恐惧的震惊事件 可以转化我们, 可以转化世界变得更好。 但是首先我们要描绘一个 我们为之奋斗的世界, 我们必须要一起梦想。 现在,我们家里的 每一个闹钟同时响起, 是时候聆听了。 是时候飞跃了。
Thank you.
谢谢。
(Applause)
(掌声)