Let me talk about India through the evolution of ideas. Now I believe this is an interesting way of looking at it because in every society, especially an open democratic society, it's only when ideas take root that things change. Slowly ideas lead to ideology, lead to policies that lead to actions.
讓我們透過觀念進化的觀點 來談談印度, 我認為用這個角度來討論印度是很有趣的, 因為在每個社會,特別是民主開放社會 只有當觀念徹底札根,事情才會有轉變。 長期累積的觀念會形成思想、 會形成政策,進而導致行動的產生。
In 1930 this country went through a Great Depression, which led to all the ideas of the state and social security, and all the other things that happened in Roosevelt's time. In the 1980s we had the Reagan revolution, which lead to deregulation. And today, after the global economic crisis, there was a whole new set of rules about how the state should intervene. So ideas change states.
在1930年時美國經歷大蕭條, 那促成了有關國家和社會安全觀念的發展, 還有一些在羅斯福時代發生的改變。 在1980年代我們有"雷根革命",為管制規定鬆綁。 今天,在經歷全球經濟危機之後, 政府確立了一套介入金融體系 的全新規則。 所以觀念可以改變國家。
And I looked at India and said, really there are four kinds of ideas which really make an impact on India. The first, to my mind, is what I call as "the ideas that have arrived." These ideas have brought together something which has made India happen the way it is today. The second set of ideas I call "ideas in progress." Those are ideas which have been accepted but not implemented yet. The third set of ideas are what I call as "ideas that we argue about" -- those are ideas where we have a fight, an ideological battle about how to do things. And the fourth thing, which I believe is most important, is "the ideas that we need to anticipate." Because when you are a developing country in the world where you can see the problems that other countries are having, you can actually anticipate what that did and do things very differently.
現在我們來看印度, 現在有四種觀念 衝擊著印度。 在我來看,第一種是 我稱作"已經成熟的觀念", 那些觀念融合了一些 造就現今印度的因素。 第二種觀念我稱作"逐漸成熟的觀念", 那些觀念是已經被社會接受了的, 但還沒有開始執行。 第三種觀念我叫它是 "引起討論的觀念", 這些觀念會引發爭論, 人們會在執行面上進行想法上的爭辯。 最後是第四種,我覺得是最重要的觀念, "必須預期到的觀念"。 因為當你處在一個發展中的國家, 你可以看到其他國家已經出現的問題, 你其實可以預測出問題的後果, 然後用不同的方式來處理。
Now in India's case I believe there are six ideas which are responsible for where it has come today. The first is really the notion of people. In the '60s and '70s we thought of people as a burden. We thought of people as a liability. Today we talk of people as an asset. We talk of people as human capital. And I believe this change in the mindset, of looking at people as something of a burden to human capital, has been one of the fundamental changes in the Indian mindset. And this change in thinking of human capital is linked to the fact that India is going through a demographic dividend. As healthcare improves, as infant mortality goes down, fertility rates start dropping. And India is experiencing that. India is going to have a lot of young people with a demographic dividend for the next 30 years. What is unique about this demographic dividend is that India will be the only country in the world to have this demographic dividend. In other words, it will be the only young country in an aging world. And this is very important. At the same time if you peel away the demographic dividend in India, there are actually two demographic curves. One is in the south and in the west of India, which is already going to be fully expensed by 2015, because in that part of the country, the fertility rate is almost equal to that of a West European country. Then there is the whole northern India, which is going to be the bulk of the future demographic dividend. But a demographic dividend is only as good as the investment in your human capital. Only if the people have education, they have good health, they have infrastructure, they have roads to go to work, they have lights to study at night -- only in those cases can you really get the benefit of a demographic dividend. In other words, if you don't really invest in the human capital, the same demographic dividend can be a demographic disaster. Therefore India is at a critical point where either it can leverage its demographic dividend or it can lead to a demographic disaster.
以印度來說,我相信有六種觀念 造成印度今日的模樣。 第一是"人口"的觀念, 在60和70年代, 我們把人口當成重擔、 當成是負擔, 現在人口則是我們的資產。 我們把人口當作人力資本, 我相信在我們心中對"人口"的看法, 已經從"重擔" 轉變成"人力資本"了, 而這是印度人最重要的觀念改革之一。 人們以人力資本來看待印度人口, 是因為印度正在享受人口成長 所帶來的好處。 印度目前的醫療照護水準已提升, 新生兒死亡率也已下降, 出生率也開始下降。 印度在未來30年內, 將嚐到大量年輕人口 所帶來的好處。 印度是世界上 唯一能夠因為人口增加, 而享有好處的國家。 換句話說,印度是在人口老化的世界中唯一保有年輕勞動力的國家。 而這非常重要。在此同時, 如果你分析印度的人口結構, 會發現有兩個人口曲線, 一個是在印度的南部和西部, 這個地區在2015年前就會用盡所有好處, 因為這個地區的出生率, 幾乎和西歐國家一樣。 再來是整個印度北部地區, 未來會因為人口增加而得到滿滿的好處, 但這只有在你願意投資你的人力資本時, 才能得到這種好處。 只有當人民受到教育、 擁有健康和基礎建設、 讓他們上班時有馬路可使用、晚上念書時有燈光... 只有在這些前提下,你才可以享受到 人口增加所帶來的好處。 換句話說,如果你不肯投資在人力資本上, 人口增加就沒有好處, 反而會變成災難。 因此印度正處於一個關鍵時刻, 端看它是否可以將人口增加轉化成優勢, 抑或是讓它變成一場災難。
The second thing in India has been the change in the role of entrepreneurs. When India got independence entrepreneurs were seen as a bad lot, as people who would exploit. But today, after 60 years, because of the rise of entrepreneurship, entrepreneurs have become role models, and they are contributing hugely to the society. This change has contributed to the vitality and the whole economy.
第二個觀念,印度正在經歷 企業家角色的轉變。 印度獨立之後,企業家曾被視為 剝削人民的壞角色, 但六十年過後,由於企業體的增加, 今天的企業家卻變成眾人的楷模, 因為他們對社會做出重大貢獻。 這個轉變 為整體經濟注入了活力。
The third big thing I believe that has changed India is our attitude towards the English language. English language was seen as a language of the imperialists. But today, with globalization, with outsourcing, English has become a language of aspiration. This has made it something that everybody wants to learn. And the fact that we have English is now becoming a huge strategic asset.
我相信改變印度的第三觀念, 是我們對英文的態度。 英文曾被視為是帝國主義的語言, 但今天隨著全球化和外包事業的發展, 英文變成了可以帶來希望的語言。 現在每個人都想學習英文。 事實上,英文現在已經成為 一個重要的戰略資產。
The next thing is technology. Forty years back, computers were seen as something which was forbidding, something which was intimidating, something that reduced jobs. Today we live in a country which sells eight million mobile phones a month, of which 90 percent of those mobile phones are prepaid phones because people don't have credit history. Forty percent of those prepaid phones are recharged at less than 20 cents at each recharge. That is the scale at which technology has liberated and made it accessible. And therefore technology has gone from being seen as something forbidding and intimidating to something that is empowering. Twenty years back, when there was a report on bank computerization, they didn't name the report as a report on computers, they call them as "ledger posting machines." They didn't want the unions to believe that they were actually computers. And when they wanted to have more advanced, more powerful computers they called them "advanced ledger posting machines." So we have come a long way from those days where the telephone has become an instrument of empowerment, and really has changed the way Indians think of technology.
接下來是科技, 四十年前, 電腦曾被視為可怕、難以親近的東西, 而且會造成勞工失業。 今天我們住在一個 每個月賣出八百萬支手機的國家, 而其中百分之九十的手機, 都使用預付卡, 因為人們沒有信用紀錄。 在預付卡中還有百分之四十的手機, 每次充電還會被索取低於20分的費用。 這個規模顯示 科技已經被自由使用,而且讓人廣泛接受。 科技也因此從原本 被視為可怕、難以親近的東西, 轉變成強而有力的工具。 20年前, 有一篇關於銀行電腦化的報告, 他們不把這報告叫做 關於電腦的報告, 他們把電腦稱作過帳機。 他們不想讓工會認為這些機器就是電腦, 然後當銀行想要更高階、更強大的電腦時, 他們就把這些電腦稱作"高階過帳機"。 我們經歷了一段很長的科技黑暗期, 在電話被視為強而有力的工具之後, 印度人才真正地改變了對科技的態度。
And then I think the other point is that Indians today are far more comfortable with globalization. Again, after having lived for more than 200 years under the East India Company and under imperial rule, Indians had a very natural reaction towards globalization believing it was a form of imperialism. But today, as Indian companies go abroad, as Indians come and work all over the world, Indians have gained a lot more confidence and have realized that globalization is something they can participate in. And the fact that the demographics are in our favor, because we are the only young country in an aging world, makes globalization all the more attractive to Indians.
接下來,我認為另一個觀念 是印度人對全球化這件事, 己經可以坦然面對了。 在經歷了帝國主義和東印度公司 超過兩百年的統治之後, 印度人很自然的相信 全球化是帝國主義的另一種形式。 但今天當許多印度公司躍上國際舞台, 許多印度人在世界各地工作, 印度人重新拾回信心, 並相信全球化是他們可以參與的。 而龐大的人口成為我們的優勢, 因為我們是這高齡化世界中唯一有年輕勞動力的國家, 這讓全球化對印度人更具吸引力。
And finally, India has had the deepening of its democracy. When democracy came to India 60 years back it was an elite concept. It was a bunch of people who wanted to bring in democracy because they wanted to bring in the idea of universal voting and parliament and constitution and so forth. But today democracy has become a bottom-up process where everybody has realized the benefits of having a voice, the benefits of being in an open society. And therefore democracy has become embedded.
最後, 印度更深化了它的民主程度, 當印度在六十年前首度實施民主政治時, 它只是屬於菁英階級的觀念, 有一群人想把民主帶進印度, 因為他們想要引進全民投票、國民議會 和憲法等先進的觀念。 但今天民主已經成為每個人都能參與的活動, 大家都能享有 言論自由帶來的好處, 及身處在一個開放社會的好處, 因此民主已經深植於每個人的心中。
I believe these six factors -- the rise of the notion of population as human capital, the rise of Indian entrepreneurs, the rise of English as a language of aspiration, technology as something empowering, globalization as a positive factor, and the deepening of democracy -- has contributed to why India is today growing at rates it has never seen before.
我相信這六個觀念-- 人口被視為人力資本、 印度企業家的興起、 英文被視為能夠帶來希望的語言、 科技被視為強而有力的工具、 全球化被當作正面因素看待、 和民主的深化, 都讓今日的印度 以前所未有的速度成長。
But having said that, then we come to what I call as ideas in progress. Those are the ideas where there is no argument in a society, but you are not able to implement those things. And really there are four things here. One is the question of education. For some reason, whatever reason -- lack of money, lack of priorities, because of religion having an older culture -- primary education was never given the focus it required. But now I believe it's reached a point where it has become very important. Unfortunately the government schools don't function, so children are going to private schools today. Even in the slums of India more than 50 percent of urban kids are going into private schools. So there is a big challenge in getting the schools to work. But having said that, there is an enormous desire among everybody, including the poor, to educate their children. So I believe primary education is an idea which is arrived but not yet implemented.
但就像我說的, 我們已進入了我所說的"逐漸成熟的觀念", 就是社會對這些觀念已經形成共識, 但還未能付諸實行。 在這裡有四個重點, 其一是教育問題。 基於某些原因,各式各樣的原因,像是缺乏經費, 或是因為宗教的歷史比較悠久,所以教育就比較不重要等, 基礎教育從來未曾獲得應有的重視。 但現在我相信,基礎教育已經到了 變得非常重要的時間點。 不幸的是,現在的公立學校沒有作用, 所以學童只能選擇私立學校。 即使在印度的貧民窟裡, 仍有超過百分之五十的學童就讀私立學校。 所以讓公立學校恢復功能是一項艱鉅的挑戰, 但就像我說的,每個人--甚至是窮人-- 都極度渴望讓他們的孩子受教育。 所以我相信,在印度,基礎教育這個觀念 還只是共識,但還未實行。
Similarly, infrastructure -- for a long time, infrastructure was not a priority. Those of you who have been to India have seen that. It's certainly not like China. But today I believe finally infrastructure is something which is agreed upon and which people want to implement. It is reflected in the political statements. 20 years back the political slogan was, "Roti, kapada, makaan," which meant, "Food, clothing and shelter." And today's political slogan is, "Bijli, sadak, pani," which means "Electricity, water and roads." And that is a change in the mindset where infrastructure is now accepted. So I do believe this is an idea which has arrived, but simply not implemented.
基礎建設也是一樣。 長久以來,基礎建設一直都不是優先項目, 你們如果曾去過印度就會知道, 印度完全不像中國。 但現在我相信,大家對基礎建設 已經有了共識,而且大家會想要去做。 這反映在政策上, 20年前的政治口號是"Roti, kapra, makan", 意思是"食物、衣物和房屋", 但現在的政治口號變成"Bijli, sarak, paani", 那代表"電力、自來水和柏油馬路"。 而心中想法的改變就表示 "基礎建設"的觀念已經廣被接受了, 所以我相信這是個已經有共識、 但僅僅還沒被實行的觀念。
The third thing is again cities. It's because Gandhi believed in villages and because the British ruled from the cities, therefore Nehru thought of New Delhi as an un-Indian city. For a long time we have neglected our cities. And that is reflected in the kinds of situations that you see. But today, finally, after economic reforms, and economic growth, I think the notion that cities are engines of economic growth, cities are engines of creativity, cities are engines of innovation, have finally been accepted. And I think now you're seeing the move towards improving our cities. Again, an idea which is arrived, but not yet implemented.
第三件事是都市化-- 由於甘地在農村發展, 而英國統治都市, 因此尼赫魯認為新德里不是典型的印度城市。 長久以來我們一直忽略我們的都市發展, 結果反映到現在你所看到的情況。 現在,在我們經歷了經濟改革 和經濟成長之後, 我認為大家都已經知道 都市是經濟成長的引擎, 都市是創意的引擎, 都市是創新的引擎, 這個觀念已經被廣為接受了。 我想你可以看到我們正在改善我們的都市環境, 這又是一個大家已經有共識但還沒被實行的觀念。
The final thing is the notion of India as a single market -- because when you didn't think of India as a market, you didn't really bother about a single market, because it didn't really matter. And therefore you had a situation where every state had its own market for products. Every province had its own market for agriculture. Increasingly now the policies of taxation and infrastructure and all that, are moving towards creating India as a single market. So there is a form of internal globalization which is happening, which is as important as external globalization. These four factors I believe -- the ones of primary education, infrastructure, urbanization, and single market -- in my view are ideas in India which have been accepted, but not implemented.
最後是把印度當作單一市場的觀念, 因為如果你不把印度當作一個市場, 印度是不是一個單一市場就不是那麼重要了。 以往的情形 就是每個省都有自己的產品市場, 每個省都有自己的農產品市場。 現在稅務和基礎建設的政策 都在大量增加, 促使印度成為一個單一市場, 所以一個與"全球化"同等重要的 "印度內部全球化"正在進行中。 "基礎教育" 、"基礎建設"、 "都市化"和"單一市場" 這四點,我相信 在印度是大家已經有共識, 但還沒被實行的觀念。
Then we have what I believe are the ideas in conflict. The ideas that we argue about. These are the arguments we have which cause gridlock. What are those ideas? One is, I think, are ideological issues. Because of the historical Indian background, in the caste system, and because of the fact that there have been many people who have been left out in the cold, a lot of the politics is about how to make sure that we'll address that. And it leads to reservations and other techniques. It's also related to the way that we subsidize our people, and all the left and right arguments that we have. A lot of the Indian problems are related to the ideology of caste and other things. This policy is causing gridlock. This is one of the factors which needs to be resolved.
再來就是我所謂的"引發討論的觀念", 也就是我們彼此會進行爭論的觀念, 或是會因爭論而導致僵局的觀念。 那些觀念指的是什麼?我認為其中之一是意識形態。 因為印度有"種姓制度"的歷史背景, 也因為這樣,有許多人 受到排擠, 因此,有許多政見就致力於 讓大家知道有這種排擠存在, 也因此產生了保護區及其他的相關政策。 這也關係到我們如何補助人民, 以及左派和右派之間的論戰。 很多印度的問題都與種姓制度 和其他的觀念有關, 這制度形成了阻礙進步的僵局, 這也是一個需要被解決的問題。
The second one is the labor policies that we have, which make it so difficult for entrepreneurs to create standardized jobs in companies, that 93 percent of Indian labor is in the unorganized sector. They have no benefits: they don't have social security; they don't have pension; they don't have healthcare; none of those things. This needs to be fixed because unless you can bring these people into the formal workforce, you will end up creating a whole lot of people who are completely disenfranchised. Therefore we need to create a new set of labor laws, which are not as onerous as they are today. At the same time give a policy for a lot more people to be in the formal sector, and create the jobs for the millions of people that we need to create jobs for.
第二個是我們目前的勞工政策, 我們的勞工政策讓企業 很難在公司裡創造出標準化的工作空缺, 因此有百分之九十三的印度勞工, 都在為沒有制度的企業工作。 他們沒有福利、沒有社會保險、 沒有退休金、也沒有醫療保障,一樣都沒有。 我們得改善這個狀況,因為除非你可以 讓這些人成為正式員工, 否則你只是在讓一堆人被剝奪公民權而已。 因此我們需要一套全新的勞工法, 一套不像現在一樣繁文縟節的法律。 在此同時,我們要制定政策,讓更多人在有制度的企業工作, 並讓更多人享有更多工作機會。
The third thing is our higher education. Indian higher education is completely regulated. It's very difficult to start a private university. It's very difficult for a foreign university to come to India. As a result of that our higher education is simply not keeping pace with India's demands. That is leading to a lot of problems which we need to address.
第三點是印度的高等教育。 印度的高等教育體制極度僵化, 要開設一間私立大學是非常困難的事, 外國大學想在印度設分校也極為困難, 這讓我們的高等教育 沒辦法跟上時代的需求, 於是產生了很多我們需要去面對的問題。
But most important I believe are the ideas we need to anticipate. Here India can look at what is happening in the west and elsewhere, and look at what needs to be done. The first thing is, we're very fortunate that technology is at a point where it is much more advanced than when other countries had the development. So we can use technology for governance. We can use technology for direct benefits. We can use technology for transparency, and many other things.
但最重要的觀念,我相信是那些 我們必須預期到的觀念。 現在印度可以先看看西方國家和其他地方 發生了什麼事,然後有什麼事是我們需要去完成的。 首先,我們很幸運的是, 現在的科技已經比 許多國家在發展時的科技 還要進步許多了。 所以我們可以把科技導入管理, 我們可以從科技獲得直接的好處, 我們可以用科技提高公開透明度,還可以用科技做其它許多事情。
The second thing is, the health issue. India has equally horrible health problems of the higher state of cardiac issue, the higher state of diabetes, the higher state of obesity. So there is no point in replacing a set of poor country diseases with a set of rich country diseases. Therefore we're to rethink the whole way we look at health. We really need to put in place a strategy so that we don't go to the other extreme of health.
再來是健康議題, 印度也有同樣嚴重的健康問題, 像心臟疾病、 糖尿病和肥胖問題, 所以現在拿富國的疾病來取代 窮國的疾病是不必要的。 因此我們要重新思考我們對健康的整體概念, 我們迫切需要實行一個 不會讓國民健康走向另一個極端的策略。
Similarly today in the West you're seeing the problem of entitlement -- the cost of social security, the cost of Medicare, the cost of Medicaid. Therefore when you are a young country, again you have a chance to put in place a modern pension system so that you don't create entitlement problems as you grow old.
相同的,今天在西方國家, 你會看到福利問題-- 社會保險的費用、醫療的費用、醫療補助等。 因此一個年輕的國家, 就可以趁早推行現代退休金制度, 然後當國家步入成熟階段時,就不會有福利方面的問題。
And then again, India does not have the luxury of making its environment dirty, because it has to marry environment and development. Just to give an idea, the world has to stabilize at something like 20 gigatons per year. On a population of nine billion our average carbon emission will have to be about two tons per year. India is already at two tons per year. But if India grows at something like eight percent, income per year per person will go to 16 times by 2050. So we're saying: income growing at 16 times and no growth in carbon. Therefore we will fundamentally rethink the way we look at the environment, the way we look at energy, the way we create whole new paradigms of development.
再來,印度沒有 污染環境的本錢, 因為印度必須在環保和經濟發展間保持均衡。 給大家一些數據參考一下, 全球的垃圾量必須固定在每年200億噸左右, 而全球有九十億人口, 每年平均的碳排放量必須維持在兩噸左右, 印度現在每年的排放量就已經有二噸了。 但如果印度保持每年百分之八的成長率, 2050年每人每年的收入將比現在成長16倍, 這就是說收入成長了16倍,但碳排放量卻不能增加。 因此我們要重新思考我們對待環境的態度、 我們使用能源的方式、 以及我們創造一個全新發展模式的方式。
Now why does this matter to you? Why does what's happening 10 thousand miles away matter to all of you? Number one, this matters because this represents more than a billion people. A billion people, 1/6th of the world population. It matters because this is a democracy. And it is important to prove that growth and democracy are not incompatible, that you can have a democracy, that you can have an open society, and you can have growth. It's important because if you solve these problems, you can solve the problems of poverty in the world. It's important because you need it to solve the world's environment problems.
這和你有什麼關係? 你為什麼要關心發生在一萬英哩外的事情? 第一點,這件事關係到十億人口, 所以很重要。 十億人,是地球總人口的六分之一, 重要的是,它是一個民主政權。 重要的是,印度能證明民主與 經濟成長並不衝突, 你可以擁有一個民主政府,你也可以擁有一個開放的社會, 然後你同時也有經濟成長。 重要的是,如果你可以解決印度的問題, 那你就可以解決這世界上所有的貧窮問題。 重要的是, 你需要印度的經驗來解決這世界上的環境問題。
If we really want to come to a point, we really want to put a cap on our carbon emission, we want to really lower the use of energy -- it has to be solved in countries like India. You know if you look at the development in the West over 200 years, the average growth may have been about two percent. Here we are talking about countries growing at eight to nine percent. And that makes a huge difference. When India was growing at about three, 3.5 percent and the population was growing at two percent, its per capita income was doubling every 45 years. When the economic growth goes to eight percent and population growth drops to 1.5 percent, then per capita income is doubling every nine years. In other words, you're certainly fast-forwarding this whole process of a billion people going to prosperity. And you must have a clear strategy which is important for India and important for the world. That is why I think all of you should be equally concerned with it as I am. Thank you very much. (Applause)
如果我們想解決問題, 我們就必須要限制碳排放量、 我們就必須要減少能源的使用, 尤其是像印度這樣的國家,更需要解決這類問題。 當你回頭看看 西方世界在過去兩百年來的發展, 年平均經濟成長率可能只有百分之二, 這裡我們所談的是那些每年成長百分之八、九的國家, 這完全是不一樣的情況。 以前,當印度經濟成長率有百分之3或3.5, 而人口成長率有百分之二的時候, 它的國民年平均收入每四十五年將會成長一倍; 而現在,經濟成長率來到每年百分之八, 而人口成長率則衰退至百分之一點五時, 國民年平均收入只要每九年就會成長一倍。 換句話說,印度是在加速這整個經濟發展過程, 讓十億人走向富裕。 而我們必須要有清楚的策略, 因為這對印度和整個世界都是很重要的。 這就是為什麼我希望你們 能跟我一樣的關心印度。 謝謝大家。 (鼓掌)