When we think about data, we usually think about averages. Average height, average salary, average number of hours spent on video calls. It’s tempting to focus on these neat little summaries of our world.
当我们想到数据时, 通常我们想到的是平均值。 平均高度、平均薪资、 花在视频电话的平均时长, 我们不由自主地关注 这些精简整齐的总结。
But the world is a lot messier than these averages can make it out to be. So instead, I look for the outliers. They can offer a better reflection of this chaos we call life. And they can offer a different perspective on the things that we think we understand.
但是世界比这些平均值 表现出来的混杂得多。 所以相反,我更关心异常值。 它们能更好地反映这些 构成我们生活的杂乱, 同时也能为我们 提供一个不同的视角 去看那些我们认为 已经理解的事物。
[Am I Normal? with Mona Chalabi]
[我正常吗?来自莫娜·沙拉比]
Take, for instance, the stats around teens and cigarettes. According to the CDC, between 1997 and 2019, the percentage of American high school students who smoked plummeted from 36 to just six percent. That seems like a pretty big win, but when you break apart the data and look at the outliers, it is a totally different picture. Among American Indian and native Alaskan students, cigarette usage is much higher than that six percent average. It comes in at a sizable 21 percent. All other racial and ethnic groups were in the single digits.
拿相关青少年和 香烟的数据来举例, 根据美国疾病控制 与预防中心(CDC), 1997 至 2019 年间 美国高中生抽烟的百分比 从 36% 直降至仅有 6%。 这看起来是一个巨大的成功, 但是当你把数据拆解开来 并关注其中的异常值, 反映出的情况就完全不同了。 在印第安人和阿拉斯加 原住民学生之间, 烟草消耗比 6% 高得多, 达到了相当高的 21%。 除此之外其他的种族和族群 百分比都在个位数。
So what first seemed like this great success story is actually an indicator of how much work we need to do to reach some of the most marginalized communities.
所以一眼看去像是一个 相当成功的案例, 实际上它指出了 我们还有许多待做的事 来接触到那些最被边缘化的社群。
In general, when we present data as a scatterplot, the average would usually look like this. And where there are outliers, the typical approach is to undervalue them, to see them as a deviation from the average or from what society thinks is normal.
总而言之,如果我们 以散点图的形式呈现数据, 平均值一般会像这样。 对于存在的异常值, 一般处理方法都是 尽可能忽略它们, 将它们看作偏离平均值的误差 或是社会认为正常值的误差。
But I like to call these outliers “lost birds.” It's a nickname I use for something or someone who has gone astray. If you look hard enough, you'll find that these lost birds pop up everywhere.
但我想称这些异常值 为“离群的鸟”, 这是我对迷失的事物或人的昵称。 如果你仔细观察, 你会发现这些离群的鸟无处不在。
Like my mom, for example. She doesn't like being on camera, so this puppet will have to do. She's a soft spoken, hijabi woman who isn't much bigger than this puppet. Because of that, it's easy for some people to underestimate her. But don't let those first impressions fool you.
举个例子,就像我妈妈, 她不愿意上镜, 所以这个木偶代表她。 她是一位说话温和、带头巾的 妇女,比这个木偶大不了多少。 因此,很容易会让有些人低估她。 但是别被这些第一印象所迷惑,
“In my generation, we used to listen and accept what they tell us. 'Do what you're told.' But when I got older, I just changed and I started to argue my point and get what I want."
“在我那个年代, 我们曾经听从别人所说的话。 ‘照吩咐的那样做。’ 但当我长大一些, 我变得开始去争论并且 争取我想要的东西。
My mom's a retired doctor, an avid ugly-dress maker, a mother of two and a grandmother of none. Though she spends a fair amount of time trying to speak that into existence,
我妈是一名退休医生, 一名狂热的丑陋衣物制造者, 两个孩子的妈以及 没有孙子的奶奶。 尽管她花费相当多的时间 试图把这种说法变成真的,
"I think for every mother, for her daughter, she wants a grandchild."
“我想每个妈妈为了她的女儿 都想要一个孙子。”
(Laughter)
(笑声)
"Sorry, Mona."
“抱歉,莫娜。”
Moving on.
继续说。
My mom is also a lost bird.
我妈也是一只“离散的鸟”
"Me?"
“我?”
She has, statistically speaking, gone astray.
统计学上来说,她已经走远了。
"Yeah, but it was a good deviation."
“没错,但是一个不错的误差。”
Back in the late '70s, my mom left Iraq and moved to the UK to further her medical training and practice. She's among the four percent of people born in Iraq who now live abroad. By the early 2000s, just three percent of UK doctors with her experience were non-white and practicing in her speciality. My mom is a lost bird because she is an outlier. She's one of the rare few to leave her home country and even rarer still among her medical peers.
回到 70 年代末, 我妈妈从伊拉克搬去英国, 继续她的医疗实践培训。 她是 4% 出生在伊拉克 但现在生活在海外的人之一。 到 21 世纪初, 仅有 3% 的英国医生 拥有她同等的经验, 他们是非白种人 并且从事着她的专业。 我妈是一只“离散的鸟”, 因为她是一个异常值。 她是极少数离开自己祖国的人, 在她的医学同僚中甚至更少见。
We all think that the people that we love are special, and there is some truth to that. But it’s worth considering the ways that we are all lost birds. Because when we focus on the average and we ignore the outliers, we lose all of the richness and insights that those stories provide.
我们都认为我们 所爱的人是特别的, 这是有道理的。 但这是值得考虑的, 我们都是“离散的鸟” 因为当我们关注平均值 而忽略异常值时, 我们失去了这些故事 所提供的一切丰富性和洞察力,
But when we dig into the deviations, we get to see the bigger picture. One from a bird's-eye view.
然而当我们挖掘这些误差时, 我们可以看到更广阔的景象。 从鸟瞰的角度看。