No one remembers when you're right, but no one forgets when you're wrong. That's a saying we can all probably relate to. But arguably, no one deals with the backlash of getting things wrong as regularly as a weather person.
你做对了,没人记得; 但若你错了,则无人忘却。 这种说法可能人人有体会, 但可以说,没人像天气预报员那样 经常因错报而遭受指责。
[Am I Normal? with Mona Chalabi]
[梦娜·凯乐贝《这正常吗?》]
From angry Twitter posts to hate mail, people can get really annoyed when the forecast is nothing like the reality. In 1964, the director of the Taiwan provincial weather bureau was even indicted for failing to correctly forecast the path of a typhoon.
从愤怒的推特帖子到仇恨邮件, 当预测与现实相差甚远时, 人们会非常恼火。 1964 年,台湾气象局局长 甚至因未正确预测台风路径被起诉。
So is our anger justified? I decided to find out just how accurate the weatherman really is. By comparing forecasts from 2017 to the actual temperatures that were recorded, I found that, as you'd expect, the forecast gets more accurate the closer you are to the actual date. So, for instance, when the US National Weather Service issued a forecast seven days in advance, it was off by over six degrees Fahrenheit. At one day in advance, their forecast was only off by about three degrees. But even though better modeling and better technology is expected to bring us better forecasts, we may never be able to predict the weather with 100 percent accuracy. That's because there are more than 100 tredecilion molecules in the atmosphere. That is the number one, followed by 44 zeros. So if we wanted to predict the weather with absolute certainty, we would need to know the position and movement of all of those particles, which is basically impossible for even our best computers.
那么,这样的愤怒合理吗? 我决定搞清天气预报员到底多准。 通过比较 2017 年的预测温度 与实际温度, 我发现,正如预期那样, 越接近实际日期,预测越准。 如,当美国国家气象局 提前 7 天发布预报时, 其偏差超过 6 华氏度; 若提前 1 天预测, 其预测差大约仅 3 度。 但是,即使更好的模型和技术 有望带来更好的天气预报, 可能永远做不到百分百地准确预测, 因为大气中的分子数量 达到 10 的 44 次方, 即 1 后面有 44 个 0。 即若想准确地预测天气, 就需要知道 所有这些粒子的位置和运动, 这连最好的计算机也做不到。
And our drive to know the future isn't limited to the weather. Take elections, for example. Despite what some websites or publications may lead you to believe, the most accurate election polls are the ones that are taken on election day, not the ones that are carried out in advance.
但我们了解未来的动力, 并非仅限于天气。 以选举为例, 尽管一些网站或出版物 可能会让你相信, 最准确的选举民意调查 发生在选举日当天, 而非提前进行的那些调查。
So the lesson here isn't a terribly surprising one. Accurate predictions depend on accurate information. And the further out you are, the higher the chances that information can change.
这并非令人惊异的教训, 准确预测取决于准确的信息, 预测越早, 信息改变的可能性越大。
So for better accuracy, you just need to be patient. Try to hold off as close as you can to the actual event. And for now, go easy on your local weather person.
所以,为提高准确性,要有耐心, 尽量等临近事件发生再预测。 因此,对天气预报员客气点吧。