No one remembers when you're right, but no one forgets when you're wrong. That's a saying we can all probably relate to. But arguably, no one deals with the backlash of getting things wrong as regularly as a weather person.
Niko ne pamti kada ste u pravu, ali niko ne zaboravlja kada niste. S tom izrekom verovatno svi možemo da se poistovetimo. Ali kladim se da se niko ne suočava sa posledicama grešenja toliko redovno koliko meteorolog.
[Am I Normal? with Mona Chalabi]
[Da li sam ja normalan? sa Monom Šalabi]
From angry Twitter posts to hate mail, people can get really annoyed when the forecast is nothing like the reality. In 1964, the director of the Taiwan provincial weather bureau was even indicted for failing to correctly forecast the path of a typhoon.
Od ljutih tvitova do mejlova punih mržnje, ljudi se prilično iznerviraju kada se prognoza ne slaže sa stvarnošću. Godine 1964, direktor Tajvanskog provincijskog vremeskog biroa bio je osuđen za pogrešnu prognozu putanje jednog tajfuna.
So is our anger justified? I decided to find out just how accurate the weatherman really is. By comparing forecasts from 2017 to the actual temperatures that were recorded, I found that, as you'd expect, the forecast gets more accurate the closer you are to the actual date. So, for instance, when the US National Weather Service issued a forecast seven days in advance, it was off by over six degrees Fahrenheit. At one day in advance, their forecast was only off by about three degrees. But even though better modeling and better technology is expected to bring us better forecasts, we may never be able to predict the weather with 100 percent accuracy. That's because there are more than 100 tredecilion molecules in the atmosphere. That is the number one, followed by 44 zeros. So if we wanted to predict the weather with absolute certainty, we would need to know the position and movement of all of those particles, which is basically impossible for even our best computers.
Da li je naš bes opravdan? Odlučila sam da saznam koliko je vremenska prognoza tačna. Poredeći prognoze iz 2017. sa stvarnim zabeleženim temperaturama, otkrila sam da je, kao što biste očekivali, prognoza tačnija što ste bliži tačnom datumu. Na primer, kada je Nacionalna vremenska služba SAD-a objavila prognozu sedam dana unapred, ona je bila pogrešna za više od šest stepeni Farenhajta. Jedan dan unapred njihova prognoza je grešila za samo oko tri stepena. Ali iako bi bolji modeli i bolja tehnologija trebalo da nam daju bolje prognoze, možda nikada nećemo moći da damo prognozu sa 100 posto tačnosti. To je zato što u atmosferi postoji više od 100 septiliona molekula. To je borj jedan praćen sa 42 nule. Ako želimo da predvidimo vreme sa apsolutnom sigurnošću, trebalo bi da znamo položaj i kretanje svih tih čestica, što je u osnovi nemoguće čak i najboljim računarima.
And our drive to know the future isn't limited to the weather. Take elections, for example. Despite what some websites or publications may lead you to believe, the most accurate election polls are the ones that are taken on election day, not the ones that are carried out in advance.
Naša težnja da znamo budućnost nije ograničena na vreme. Uzmimo, na primer, izbore. Uprkos tome što neki sajtovi i publikacije žele da verujete, najtačniji rezultati izbora su oni koji se beleže na dan izbora, a ne oni koji se mere unapred.
So the lesson here isn't a terribly surprising one. Accurate predictions depend on accurate information. And the further out you are, the higher the chances that information can change.
Ova lekcija nije strašno iznenađujuća. Tačna predviđanja zavise od tačnih informacija. Što ste dalje, veća je šansa da se informacije promene.
So for better accuracy, you just need to be patient. Try to hold off as close as you can to the actual event. And for now, go easy on your local weather person.
Dakle za veću preciznost treba samo da budete strpljivi. Probajte da sačekate što više do određenog događaja. I za sada, budite blagi prema lokalnom meteorologu.