When it comes to toothpaste commercials, you've probably heard claims like, nine out of 10 dentists recommend "Brighter, Whiter." Or maybe it's four out of five or 80 percent. But either way, these companies expect you to see a wall of white coats, trust their authority and think no further.
Saat melihat iklan pasta gigi, Anda mungkin mendengar klaim: 9 dari 10 dokter gigi merekomendasikan suatu merek. Atau mungkin 4 dari 5, atau 80 persen. Intinya, perusahaan-perusahaan ini ingin Anda melihat sederet dokter gigi, dan memercayai mereka tanpa berpikir lebih jauh.
Now that approach is basically BS, and you probably know it's BS, but the question is: How can you trust your BS radar?
Pada dasarnya pendekatan itu hanya bualan, dan Anda mungkin menyadarinya. Namun, bagaimana cara meyakini bahwa itu sekedar bualan?
[Am I Normal? with Mona Chalabi]
[Apakah Aku Normal? dengan Mona Chalabi]
Well, when I'm faced with suspicious statistics, I tend to ask myself three questions. First, what were people actually asked? Sometimes the question that is put to survey respondents is wildly different than the one that ends up on posters and billboards. For instance, in 2007, one toothpaste ad in the UK claimed that more than 80 percent of dentists recommended their products. What that sounds like is that a majority of dentists prefer their product over all others, that those dentists were asked if this was the best product. But when the Advertising Standards Authority looked into it, they discovered that the dentists were asked to recommend several toothpastes, not one single choice. In fact, another brand was found to be almost as popular. To no one's surprise, the ad was deemed misleading.
Saat menghadapi statistik mencurigakan, biasanya saya mempertanyakan tiga hal. Pertama, apa yang sebenarnya ditanyakan pada orang-orang? Terkadang pertanyaan yang diajukan pada responden survei jauh berbeda dari yang akhirnya ada di poster dan papan iklan. Contohnya, pada tahun 2007, sebuah iklan pasta gigi di Inggris mengeklaim lebih dari 80 persen dokter gigi merekomendasikan produknya. Itu terdengar seolah mayoritas dokter gigi lebih memilih produk mereka dibandingkan produk lain, bahwa para dokter gigi itu ditanya apakah ini produk terbaik. Namun, ketika Badan Standar Periklanan memeriksanya, ternyata para dokter gigi diminta merekomendasikan beberapa pasta gigi, bukan satu pilihan saja. Faktanya, merek lain ternyata hampir sama populernya. Tak mengejutkan, iklan tersebut dianggap menyesatkan.
Now, the second question to ask is: What aren’t you telling me? In the 1970s, a sugarless gum company claimed that four out five dentists recommended their product. Now, their slogan was pretty upfront about the fact that these dentists were only recommending the product to people who already chewed gum, but they weren't so forthcoming about the fifth dentist. Decades later, the manufacturer made fun of it in a new ad campaign where they blamed the fifth dentist's different thinking on a freak accident, like a sudden squirrel bite. Now, since I'm all about the deviations in the data, I decided to look into this a little bit further. In fact, it's not that the fifth dentist recommended chewing sugary gum. What they don't say is that most of them recommended that their patients don't chew gum at all.
Pertanyaan kedua adalah: Apa yang tak diceritakan? Pada 1970-an, perusahaan permen karet bebas gula mengeklaim bahwa 4 dari 5 dokter gigi merekomendasikan produk mereka. Slogan mereka cukup lugas, tentang fakta bahwa para dokter gigi hanya merekomendasikan produknya pada mereka yang sudah mengunyah permen karet. Namun, mereka tak menjelaskan tentang dokter gigi kelima. Puluhan tahun kemudian, produsennya membuat lelucon tentang itu di iklan baru saat menyalahkan pemikiran berbeda dokter gigi kelima pada kecelakaan aneh, seperti mendadak digigit tupai. Karena saya fokus pada penyimpangan dalam data, saya memutuskan untuk memeriksanya lebih jauh. Ternyata, dokter gigi kelima bukan merekomendasikan permen karet bergula. Yang tak disebutkan adalah mayoritas dokter gigi menyarankan agar pasien tak makan permen karet sama sekali.
The last thing to ask is: What was the survey context? Because there's a really big difference between saying "nine out of 10 dentists agree," and "nine out of these 10 dentists agree." Size matters and so does methodology. According to the American Dental Association, there are about 200,000 registered dentists in the US. I’m not going to bore you with the maths here, but to get a statistically significant sample of 200,000 people, you need about 400. So if you're reading in the fine print that only 50 dentists were surveyed, you know that's not statistically significant. It's just a marketing ploy.
Pertanyaan terakhir: Apa konteks survei itu? Karena ada perbedaan yang sangat besar antara mengatakan “9 dari 10 dokter gigi setuju,” dan “9 dari 10 dokter gigi ini setuju.” Ukuran dan metodologi itu penting. Menurut Asosiasi Dokter Gigi Amerika, ada sekitar 200.000 dokter gigi terdaftar di AS. Saya tak akan membahas matematika, tetapi untuk mendapat sampel signifikan dari 200.000 orang, dibutuhkan 400 orang. Jika Anda membaca tulisan kecil hanya 50 dokter gigi yang disurvei, Anda tahu secara statistik itu tidak signifikan. Itu hanya taktik pemasaran.
So the next time you see one of these ads, ask yourself: What were people actually asked? What's gone unsaid? And what was the survey context? Hopefully, with those three questions and a little bit of skepticism, you will be able to understand when the data is legit and when it's irrelevant. Nine out of 10 Monas agree. [*No such survey took place]
Jadi, saat Anda melihat iklan seperti ini, tanyalah diri Anda: Apa yang ditanyakan dalam survei? Apa yang tak disebutkan? Dan apa konteks survei itu? Semoga dengan tiga pertanyaan itu dan sedikit keraguan, Anda bisa memahami kapan data itu nyata dan kapan dia tak relevan. 9 dari 10 Mona setuju. [*Tidak dilakukan survei]