These are grim economic times, fellow TEDsters, grim economic times indeed. And so, I would like to cheer you up with one of the great, albeit largely unknown, commercial success stories of the past 20 years. Comparable, in its own very peculiar way, to the achievements of Microsoft or Google. And it's an industry which has bucked the current recession with equanimity. I refer to organized crime.
现在是非常糟糕的经济时期 各位TED的朋友,真的是非常糟糕经济时期 所以,我想让你们振奋一下 用一个在过去20年中 大多数人都不知道的 成功的商业故事 他们用他们自己的方式 他们有他们特别的方式™ 如今,它正冷静的应对着当前的 金融危机 我指的是有组织犯罪
Now organized crime has been around for a very long time, I hear you say, and these would be wise words, indeed. But in the last two decades, it has experienced an unprecedented expansion, now accounting for roughly 15 percent of the world's GDP. I like to call it the Global Shadow Economy, or McMafia, for short.
如你所知,从很久以前开始 有组织犯罪就已经存在于我们身边了 事实确实就是这个样子 但是在过去的20年中 它以难以想象的速度扩张着 如今它已经占到了世界GDP的 近15% 我更愿意称之为”全球地下经济“ 或者简称”McMafia“(麦克黑手党),
So what triggered this extraordinary growth in cross-border crime? Well, of course, there is globalization, technology, communications, all that stuff, which we'll talk about a little bit later. But first, I would like to take you back to this event: the collapse of communism. All across Eastern Europe, a most momentous episode in our post-war history.
那么,是什么引起了这种跨国行犯罪的 异常增长呢? 当然,这其中有全球化, 科技进步,通讯发展等等方面的原因 这些我们等会儿会谈到 但是首先,我想带各位回顾一下 这个事件 东欧共产主义解体。 整个东欧在第二次世界大战后 经历的最重要的一章
Now it's time for full disclosure. This event meant a great deal to me personally. I had started smuggling books across the Iron Curtain to Democratic opposition groups in Eastern Europe, like Solidarity in Poland, when I was in my teens. I then started writing about Eastern Europe, and eventually I became the BBC's chief correspondent for the region, which is what I was doing in 1989. And so when 425 million people finally won the right to choose their own governments, I was ecstatic, but I was also a touch worried about some of the nastier things lurking behind the wall.
现在是时候大白于天下了。 这件事对我个人来说非常重要。 我曾经为走私书籍横跨铁幕(当时共产主义和资本主义的欧洲分界线) 运到东欧的民主反对党 比如波兰的团结工会等等 当时我是十几岁 后来我开始写一些关于东欧的东西 并最终成为了 BBC驻这一地区的通讯主管 这些是我在1989年做的事情 当4.25亿人最终获得了 选择他们政府的 权利的时候 我欣喜若狂 但是我也开始担心 一些潜在着的 令人烦心的事情。
It wasn't long, for example, before ethnic nationalism reared its bloody head in Yugoslavia. And amongst the chaos, amidst the euphoria, it took me a little while to understand that some of the people who had wielded power before 1989, in Eastern Europe, continued to do so after the revolutions there. Obviously there were characters like this. But there were also some more unexpected people who played a critical role in what was going on in Eastern Europe.
举例来说, 这离之前南斯拉夫的种族主义 血腥上台 并不太久 在那种混乱与 兴奋的环境中 我花了一段时间才了解到 那些在东欧1989年之前 已经掌握特殊权利的人, 在革命之后继续在那里掌控着他们的权利。 显然有些是大人物,像是... 不过也有一些我们想不到的人物 正影响着东欧的改变
Like this character. Remember these guys? They used to win the gold medals in weightlifting and wrestling, every four years in the Olympics, and they were the great celebrities of communism, with a fabulous lifestyle to go with it. They used to get great apartments in the center of town, casual sex on tap, and they could travel to the West very freely, which was a great luxury at the time. It may come as a surprise, but they played a critical role in the emergence of the market economy in Eastern Europe. Or as I like to call them, they are the midwives of capitalism. Here are some of those same weightlifters after their 1989 makeover.
像是这一位。还记得这些人吗? 他们经常在四年一次的奥运会上 赢得举重和摔跤的金牌 在共产主义国家里,他们是社会名流 过着奢华的生活 在市中心拥有高档的公寓 也有美酒佳人作陪 他们可以自由的到西方国家旅行 这在当时简直奢华到了极点 这可能出乎人的意料,但是他们扮演了一个很重要的角色 在这个市场经济危机中 在东欧。 或者我更愿意称他们为 资本主义的接生婆 这是在1989年变化之后 保加利亚的
Now in Bulgaria -- this photograph was taken in Bulgaria -- when communism collapsed all over Eastern Europe, it wasn't just communism; it was the state that collapsed as well. That means your police force wasn't working. The court system wasn't functioning properly. So what was a business man in the brave new world of East European capitalism going to do to make sure that his contracts would be honored? Well, he would turn to people who were called, rather prosaically by sociologists, privatized law enforcement agencies. We prefer to know them as the mafia. And in Bulgaria, the mafia was soon joined with 14,000 people who were sacked from their jobs in the security services between 1989 and 1991.
举重选手 这些照片是在保加利亚拍的 当东欧共产主义国家垮台时 垮的不只是共产主义 政府机制也垮了 也就是说警察和治安没了 法律系统无法正常运作 在这样的情况下,一个商人应该如何 在混乱的东欧的资本主义市场中 确保自己合约的有效性? 事实上,他可能会去求助于那些 被社会学家称之为 “私人法律强制执行机构” 我们通常称他们为黑手党。 在保加利亚,黑手党很快的 聚结了1万4千人 被聚集的都是1989到1991年间 在治安管理行业丢了工作的人
Now, when your state is collapsing, your economy is heading south at a rate of knots, the last people you want coming on to the labor market are 14,000 men and women whose chief skills are surveillance, are smuggling, building underground networks and killing people. But that's what happened all over Eastern Europe. Now, when I was working in the 1990s, I spent most of the time covering the appalling conflict in Yugoslavia.
现在,当你的政府垮台了 经济正在急速下滑 劳工市场绝不会是这1万四千人 愿意去的地方。他们擅长的 是监视 走私,建立地下秩序 和杀人。 但是当时整个东欧都是这样 在90年代,我工作的大部分时间 都花在了报道那些 南斯拉夫严重的武装冲突上
And I couldn't help notice that the people who were perpetrating the appalling atrocities, the paramilitary organizations, were actually the same people running the organized criminal syndicates. And I came to think that behind the violence lay a sinister criminal enterprise. And so I resolved to travel around the world examining this global criminal underworld by talking to policemen, by talking to victims, by talking to consumers of illicit goods and services. But above all else, by talking to the gangsters themselves.
于是我渐渐发现 犯下那些骇人暴行的人 和这些准军事机构 都实际上是那同一群 掌控着有组织的犯罪集团的人 所以我开始思考在这暴力后面隐藏着的 一个危险的犯罪集团。 然后我决心环游世界 探查全球的地下犯罪 通过与警察交谈 与受害人交谈,与那些非法商品和服务的 购买者们交谈 除此之外,还会直接与罪犯们交谈
And the Balkans was a fabulous place to start. Why? Well of course there was the issue of law and order collapsing, but also, as they say in the retail trade, it's location, location, location. And what I noticed at the beginning of my research that the Balkans had turned into a vast transit zone for illicit goods and services coming from all over the world. Heroin, cocaine, women being trafficked into prostitution and precious minerals.
巴尔干地区是一个适合开始调查的地方 为什么呢?因为显然 那里的法律和秩序已经崩溃 另外,像零售行业中所说的, 关键是位置,位置,位置 刚开始我发现的是 巴尔干已成为一个大型中转区 非法物资来源于世界各地 海洛因,可卡因 女人被非法卖到卖淫集团 还有稀有的矿物
And where were they heading? The European Union, which by now was beginning to reap the benefits of globalization, transforming it into the most affluent consumer market in history, eventually comprising some 500 million people. And a significant minority of those 500 million people like to spend some of their leisure time and spare cash sleeping with prostitutes, sticking 50 Euro notes up their nose and employing illegal migrant laborers.
这些东西最终运向什么地方? 目的地是欧盟 欧盟过去一直因为全球化而获利 于是犯罪慢慢转型到 这个历史上最富足的消费市场 涵盖了5亿人口的市场 在这5亿人中 有很少但很重要的一批人 他们愿意花点些时间和闲钱 跟妓女上床 用50欧元的钞票插到鼻子里面(吸毒) 雇佣非法移民劳工
Now, organized crime in a globalizing world operates in the same way as any other business. It has zones of production, like Afghanistan and Columbia. It has zones of distribution, like Mexico and the Balkans. And then, of course, it has zones of consumption, like the European Union, Japan and of course, the United States. The zones of production and distribution tend to lie in the developing world, and they are often threatened by appalling violence and bloodshed.
在世界全球化的今天,有组织犯罪 使用和其他大企业一样的运作模式 它拥有很多生产地区, 像阿富汗和哥伦比亚 它有自己的发货区域 像墨西哥和巴尔干地区 然后,当然,还有它的消费区 像欧盟,日本 当然 ,还有美国 生产区域和发货区域 趋向于在发展中世界 他们都经常被严重的暴力和流血事件 威胁
Take Mexico, for example. Six thousand people killed there in the last 18 months as a direct consequence of the cocaine trade. But what about the Democratic Republic of Congo? Since 1998, five million people have died there. It's not a conflict you read about much in the newspapers, but it's the biggest conflict on this planet since the Second World War. And why is it? Because mafias from all around the world cooperate with local paramilitaries in order to seize the supplies of the rich mineral resources of the region.
拿墨西哥来说 在过去18个月中,就有6000人被杀 这些都直接归因于可卡因的交易 那么民主刚果共和国怎么样呢? 从1998年起,5百万人已经死亡 这不是一个你在报纸上可以读到的冲突 但这是自二战以来 在我们星球上发生的最大的冲突 为什么会这样 ? 因为来自世界各地的黑手党 与地方军事武装合作 为了控制富矿 在地区上的 供应权。
In the year 2000, 80 percent of the world's coltan was sourced to the killing fields of the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo. Now, coltan you will find in almost every mobile phone, in almost every laptop and games console. The Congolese war lords were selling this stuff to the mafia in exchange for weapons, and the mafia would then sell it on to Western markets. And it is this Western desire to consume that is the primary driver of international organized crime.
在2000年,世界上80%的钶钽铁矿 都来源于刚果共和国东部的 杀戮地区 你可以在基本上每部手机上发现钶钽铁矿 还有笔记本电脑上 和游戏机控制器上 刚果的战争头目把这些东西卖给黑手党 去交换武器 然后黑手党把这些东西卖到西方市场 这是西方市场所需要的 所消耗的 这就是全球组织犯罪的 主要动机
Now, let me show you some of my friends in action, caught conveniently on film by the Italian police, and smuggling duty-not-paid cigarettes. Now, cigarettes out the factory gate are very cheap. The European Union then imposes the highest taxes on them in the world. So if you can smuggle them into the E.U., there are very handsome profits to be made, and I want to show you this to demonstrate the type of resources available to these groups.
现在,就让我向你们展示一些我的正在行动中的朋友, 他们正巧被意大利警察拍到了影片中 他们在走私逃税香烟 现在,工厂生产的香烟非常便宜 但欧盟要求他们付世界上最高的税。 所以如果你可以走私香烟进欧盟 就能赚到极高的利润 我想向各位展示一下 这些团体拥有着何等的资源
This boat is worth one million Euros when it's new. And it's the fastest thing on European waters. From 1994, for seven years, 20 of these boats made the trip across the Adriatic, from Montenegro to Italy, every single night. And as a consequence of this trade, Britain alone lost eight billion dollars in revenue. And instead that money went to underwrite the wars in Yugoslavia and line the pockets of unscrupulous individuals.
这艘船的造价是100万欧元 欧洲再没有什么跑得比它快了 从1994年开始,一共7年, 20艘这样的船 曾经成功的穿越过亚得里亚海, 每天晚上从黑山到意大利。 这个交易导致 英国损失了80亿美元的收入 而这些钱被用在了南斯拉夫战争中 还进了一些黑心商人的腰包
Now Italian police, when this trade started, had just two boats which could go at the same speed. And this is very important, because the only way you can catch these guys is if they run out of gas. Sometimes the gangsters would bring with them women being trafficked into prostitution, and if the police intervened, they would hurl the women into the sea so that the police had to go and save them from drowning, rather than chasing the bad guys.
这种交易刚刚开始的时候,意大利警方 只有两艘警舰可以跟他们跑得一样快 这很重要,因为唯一抓住他们的方法 就是让他们跑到没汽油 有时候黑手党会带着 被拐来卖淫的女人 如果警察干预,他们会把 这些女人抛入大海 所以警察必须去救这些人, 而不是继续追赶,
So I have shown you this to demonstrate how many boats, how many vessels it takes to catch one of these guys. And the answer is six vessels. And remember, 20 of these speed boats were coming across the Adriatic every single night. So what were these guys doing with all the money they were making?
给各位看这些是想说明 需要多少船,多少快艇 才能抓到这些人 答案是6艘 要知道,有20艘这样的快船 每晚穿梭在 亚得里亚海上 罪犯把挣到的钱都用在什么地方了呢?
Well, this is where we come to globalization, because that was not just the deregulation of global trade. It was the liberalization of international financial markets. And boy, did that make it easy for the money launderers. The last two decades have been the champagne era for dirty lucre.
这就要提到全球化问题了 因为这不只是破坏世界交易规定 还有世界金融市场的自由化 老实说,洗钱实在是 太容易了 过去的20年是一个值得用香槟庆祝的时代 对于黑钱来说
In the 1990s, we saw financial centers around the world competing for their business, and there was simply no effective mechanism to prevent money laundering. And a lot of licit banks were also happy to accept deposits from very dubious sources without questions being asked.
自1990以来,我们看见世界各地的金融中心们 为它们的生意互相竞争 然而却没有一个有效地机制 去防止洗钱活动 而且很多合法的银行也乐于 接受存款 尽管来源非常可疑 也不会问任何问题
But at the heart of this, is the offshore banking network. Now these things are an essential part of the money laundering parade, and if you want to do something about illegal tax evasion and transnational organized crime, money laundering, you have to get rid of them. On a positive note, we at last have someone in the White House who has consistently spoken out against these corrosive entities.
这些问题的根源在于跨国银行网络 现在这些事情 已经成为洗钱狂潮的核心部分 如果你想阻止非法避税 国际化有组织犯罪、洗钱 你就必须摆脱它们 好消息是,白宫里有些还在 坚持提出 反对这些腐化的集团
And if anyone is concerned about what I believe is the necessity for new legislation, regulation, effective regulation, I say, let's take a look at Bernie Madoff, who is now going to be spending the rest of his life in jail. Bernie Madoff stole 65 billion dollars. That puts him up there on the Olympus of gangsters with the Colombian cartels and the major Russian crime syndicates, but he did this for decades in the very heart of Wall Street, and no regulator picked up on it. So how many other Madoffs are there on Wall Street or in the city of London, fleecing ordinary folk and money laundering? Well I can tell you, it's quite a few of them.
如果有任何人跟我一样关心这样的问题 注意最重要的事情是 对于新的法律,规定,有效的规则 让我们看看Bernie Madoff 他将在监狱中度过他的余生 Bernie Madoff偷了650亿美元 这使他成为了可以比肩哥伦比亚三大贩毒集团 和主要俄罗斯犯罪组织的 地位最高的黑手党 不同的是,他这样做了几十年 而且就在华尔街深处 没有任何规则可以将他找出来 所以华尔街上还有多少个Madoffs在华尔街? 或者在伦敦 伪装成普通人 继续洗着钱? 我可以告诉各位,真的很多
Let me go on to the 101 of international organized crime now. And that is narcotics. Our second marijuana farm photograph for the morning. This one, however, is in central British Columbia where I photographed it. It's one of the tens of thousands of mom-and-pop grow-ops in B.C. which ensure that over five percent of the province's GDP is accounted for by this trade.
让我们来一个“有组织犯罪入门”吧 毒品。这是我们今早展示的第二张大麻工厂的照片 这张照片,是我在不列颠哥伦比亚省中部 拍摄到的 它只是成千上万的 不列颠哥伦比亚的家庭毒品农场之一 全省GDP的5%以上 都是靠这项生意提供的
Now, I was taken by inspector Brian Cantera, of the Royal Canadian Mounted Police, to a cavernous warehouse east of Vancouver to see some of the goods which are regularly confiscated by the RCMP from the smugglers who are sending it, of course, down south to the United States where there is an insatiable market for B.C. Bud, as it's called, in part because it's marketed as organic, which of course goes down very well in California. (Laughter) (Applause)
现在,Brian Cantera探长带着我, 他是加拿大皇家骑警, 他带着我去温哥华东部的一个洞穴一样的仓库 去看一些被合法没收的物品 它们是加拿大皇家骑警 从走私者那里没收来的物品 当然,走私的目标是美国的南部 那里有一个永远不能满足的市场 他们称之为不列颠哥伦比亚的花蕾 部分因为它是作为有机商品来卖的 所以在加利福尼亚的销路非常的好 (笑声) (掌声)
Now, even by the police's admission, this makes not a dent in the profits, really, of the major exporters. Since the beginning of globalization, the global narcotics market has expanded enormously. There has, however, been no concomitant increase in the resources available to police forces.
现在就就连警方也承认 这对主要出口商的利益来说 一点影响也没有 在全球化开始之际 全球的毒品市场就急速扩充得非常庞大 不过却没有相应的增加 用来对抗犯罪的资源 给警方
This, however, may all be about to change, because something very strange is going on. The United Nations recognized earlier this -- it was last month actually -- that Canada has become a key area of distribution and production of ecstasy and other synthetic drugs.
然而,这一切将有所改变 因为有些非常奇怪的事情正在发生 联合国已经意识到 确切的说是上个月意识到 加拿大已经成为了一个重要的生产和分销地区 在摇头丸和其他合成毒品交易方面
Interestingly, the market share of heroin and cocaine is going down, because the pills are getting ever better at reproducing their highs. Now that is a game changer, because it shifts production away from the developing world and into the Western world. When that happens, it is a trend which is set to overwhelm our policing capacity in the West. The drugs policy which we've had in place for 40 years is long overdue for a very serious rethink, in my opinion.
有趣的是,市场份额中 海洛因和可卡因正在下降 因为这些药丸在对它们所产生的作用进行改良。 现在游戏规则改变了 因为它把生产地从发展中国家转移到了 西方世界 当它发生成为一个趋势 它就会超越我们西方警力的能力之外 我们的缉毒警察已经原地踏步了40年 而我们早应该对此严肃的重新思考一下 这是我个人观点
Now, the recession. Well, organized crime has already adapted very well to the recession. Not surprising, the most opportunistic industry in the whole world. And it has no rules to its regulatory system. Except, of course, it has two business risks: arrest by law enforcement, which is, frankly, the least of their worries, and competition from other groups, i.e. a bullet in the back of the head.
现在来谈谈经济衰退 其实,有组织犯罪早已适应了 他们适应得非常好 说他们是全世界最投机的商人 一点也不奇怪 而且它没有规定和管制系统。 但是,他们也有两个经营上的风险 一个是被依法逮捕, 但是说真的,这是他们最不担心的 第二个是与其他组织竞争 就像是脑门后抵着一把枪
What they've done is they've shifted their operations. People don't smoke as much dope, or visit prostitutes quite so frequently during a recession. And so instead, they have invaded financial and corporate crime in a big way, but above all, two sectors, and that is counterfeit goods and cybercrime. And it's been terribly successful. I would like to introduce you to Mr. Pringle. Or perhaps I should say, more accurately, Señor Pringle.
已收到威胁他们就会马上转移生意的运作 人们不再大量吸毒,也不常去找妓女 因为经济衰退了 于是他们转而加大了金融犯罪 和企业犯罪的投入 整体而言有两个部分 一个是假冒伪劣商品 另一个是网络犯罪 而且非常成功。 我想向你们介绍Pringle先生。 或者更准确的说,Pringle先生(Señor,西班牙语中先生的意思)
I was introduced to this bit of kit by a Brazilian cybercriminal. We sat in a car on the Avenue Paulista in São Paulo, together. Hooked it up to my laptop, and within about five minutes he had penetrated the computer security system of a major Brazilian bank. It's really not that difficult. And it's actually much easier because the fascinating thing about cybercrime is that it's not so much the technology.
我是通过一位巴西网络罪犯认识他的 我们一起坐在车里,车停在圣保罗的 Paulista 街道 通过我的笔记本电脑, 不到5分钟他就侵入了电脑 安全系统 系统属于巴西某大型银行 那真的算不上难 而且可以说非常简单,因为 网络犯罪的诱人之处 就在于它并不是十分高科技
The key to cybercrime is what we call social engineering. Or to use the technical term for it, there's one born every minute. You would not believe how easy it is to persuade people to do things with their computers which are objectively not in their interest. And it was very soon when the cybercriminals learned that the quickest way to do this, of course, the quickest way to a person's wallet is through the promise of sex and love.
网络犯罪其实是一种我们称作为社会工程的东西 或者是术语上是这么用的 每一分钟都会有新的诞生 它简单到你无法想象 要人们去使用他们的电脑 多数人都不会感兴趣 但是,很快的 当网络罪犯们发现最快的一条通道 当然是直接掏空别人的钱包 用虚无的性爱承诺和爱情的盟约
I expect some of you remember the ILOVEYOU virus, one of the very great worldwide viruses that came. I was very fortunate when the ILOVEYOU virus came out, because the first person I received it from was an ex-girlfriend of mine. Now, she harbored all sorts of sentiments and emotions towards me at the time, but love was not amongst them. (Laughter) And so as soon as I saw this drop into my inbox, I dispatched it hastily to the recycle bin and spared myself a very nasty infection.
我想各位应该还记得“I-love-you"病毒吧 他是全世界最成功的病毒之一 当这个病毒出现的时候我很幸运 因为第一个把它传播给我的人 是我的前女友 她当时对我有很多的情绪以及感受 不过“爱”绝对不在其中 (笑声) 在我看见这些信在我的收信箱的时候 我马上就把它给删掉了 这让我省了不少的麻烦
So, cybercrime, do watch out for it. One thing that we do know that the Internet is doing is the Internet is assisting these guys. These are mosquitos who carry the malarial parasite which infests our blood when the mosy has had a free meal at our expense.
所以,大家真的要小心网络犯罪 我们知道网络对于犯罪者而言 是帮助犯罪的工具 他们是携带着疟原虫的蚊子 当得到免费的午餐他们就可以侵扰我们的血液 并损害我们的利益。
Now, Artesunate is a very effective drug at destroying the parasite in the early days of infection. But over the past year or so, researchers in Cambodia have discovered that what's happening is the malarial parasite is developing a resistance. And they fear that the reason why it's developing a resistance is because Cambodians can't afford the drugs on the commercial market, and so they buy it from the Internet. And these pills contain only low doses of the active ingredient. Which is why the parasite is beginning to develop a resistance.
现在,青蒿琥酯是一种非常有效的药物 它可以在感染的初期 杀死寄生虫 但是在过去的一年 柬埔寨的研究员发现 发生了些变化 这些寄生虫开始出现了抗药性 研究人员担心抗药性的产生 是由于柬埔寨人无法负担一般市场的药物 所以他们只能从互联网上购买 然而者写药品内含的 剂量不足 这导致了变异的发生、 这些病菌没有被杀死,反而产生了抗药性
The reason I say this is because we have to know that organized crime impacts all sorts of areas of our lives. You don't have to sleep with prostitutes or take drugs in order to have a relationship with organized crime. They affect our bank accounts. They affect our communications, our pension funds. They even affect the food that we eat and our governments.
我说这个原因是 因为我们必须知道 有组织犯罪 正冲击着我们生活中所有的方面 你不必去找妓女 或者吸毒 就可以跟有组织犯罪者发生关系 他们影响着我们的银行账户 他们影响着我们的交流,我们的退休金 他们甚至影响我们的食物 和我们的政府
This is no longer an issue of Sicilians from Palermo and New York. There is no romance involved with gangsters in the 21st Century. This is a mighty industry, and it creates instability and violence wherever it goes. It is a major economic force and we need to take it very, very seriously. It's been a privilege talking to you. Thank you very much. (Applause)
这已经不仅仅是一个来自于帕尔默和纽约的 西西里黑手党问题了 黑手党们并不浪漫 在21世纪的今天 他们是一个万能的行业 他们创造不稳定的局势和暴力 不管到哪里 他们都会成为当地的主要经济力量 而我们需要非常非常严肃的对待这个问题 很荣幸能跟各位聊这些 非常感谢 (掌声)