Wow, this is bright. It must use a lot of power. Well, flying you all in here must have cost a bit of energy too. So the whole planet needs a lot of energy, and so far we've been running mostly on fossil fuel. We've been burning gas. It's been a good run. It got us to where we are, but we have to stop. We can't do that anymore.
哇,这儿很亮堂。 它肯定消耗很多能量。 你们都乘飞机来到这里 一定也耗费了一些能量。 整个地球需要大量的能源, 迄今,我们主要都在使用化石燃料。 我们一直到在使用天然气。 到目前看来效果还不错。 它让我们来到要来的地方,但我们不得不停止使用它。 我们不能再使用它了。
So we are trying different types of energy now, alternative energy, but it proved quite difficult to find something that's as convenient and as cost-effective as oil, gas and coal. My personal favorite is nuclear energy. Now, it's very energy-dense, it produces solid, reliable power, and it doesn't make any CO2.
因此我们正在尝试不同种类的能源, 异形能源, 但要事实证明要发现 像石油,天然气,和煤炭一样方便 和经济有效的东西是很难的。 我个人最喜欢的是核能。 核能能量密度高, 它可以产生出稳固可靠的电源, 而且不排放二氧化碳。
Now we know of two ways of making nuclear energy: fission and fusion. Now in fission, you take a big nucleus, you break it in part, in two, and it makes lots of energy, and this is how the nuclear reactor today works. It works pretty good. And then there's fusion. Now, I like fusion. Fusion's much better. So you take two small nuclei, you put it together, and you make helium, and that's very nice. It makes lots of energy. This is nature's way of producing energy. The sun and all the stars in the universe run on fusion. Now, a fusion plant would actually be quite cost-effective and it also would be quite safe. It only produces short term radioactive waste, and it cannot melt down. Now, the fuel from fusion comes from the ocean. In the ocean, you can extract the fuel for about one thousandth of a cent per kilowatt-hour, so that's very, very cheap. And if the whole planet would run on fusion, we could extract the fuel from the ocean. It would run for billions and billions of years.
现在我们知道两种 产生核能的方法:核裂变和核聚变。 在核裂变中,你将用一个大的原子核 把它分裂成两部分 便会产生很多能量, 这也是现在核反应堆运行的原理。 它效果非常好。 其次是核聚变。 我倾向核聚变,因为它更好。 你将两个小原子核 放在一起形成一个氦原子, 那是很好的, 它产生很多能量。 这是自然产生能量的方式。 太阳和宇宙中的恒星 都靠核聚变运作。 一个核聚变电厂 事实上非常经济有效 并且很安全。 它只产生短期的放射性废物, 而且它不会熔化。 核聚变的原料来自于海洋。 在海洋中你可以开采原料, 每千瓦时的成本只有千分之一美分, 所以,那非常,非常便宜。 如果整个地球依赖核聚变, 我们可以从海洋中提取原料。 它会运行上百亿年。
Now, if fusion is so great, why don't we have it? Where is it? Well, there's always a bit of a catch. Fusion is really, really hard to do. So the problem is, those two nuclei, they are both positively charged, so they don't want to fuse. They go like this. They go like that. So in order to make them fuse, you have to throw them at each other with great speed, and if they have enough speed, they will go against the repulsion, they will touch, and they will make energy. Now, the particle speed is a measure of the temperature. So the temperature required for fusion is 150 billion degrees C. This is rather warm, and this is why fusion is so hard to do.
但如果核聚变这么有用,我们为什么还没用上呢? 它在哪儿呢? 总是有原因的。 核聚变非常难实行。 问题在于,那两个原子核 都带有正电荷, 所以它们不想融合。 它们像这样背道而行,就像那样背道而去 为了要让它们融合, 你必须以极大的速度把它们抛向对方, 如果速度够大, 它们就能克服斥力, 它们就会接触,并产生能量。 现在,颗粒的速度是 衡量温度的一种方式。 那么核聚变 所需要的融合的温度是 1500 亿 摄氏度。 这温度是相当暖和的, 这也是为什么核聚变十分困难的原因。
Now, I caught my little fusion bug when I did my Ph.D. here at the University of British Columbia, and then I got a big job in a laser printer place making printing for the printing industry. I worked there for 10 years, and I got a little bit bored, and then I was 40, and I got a mid-life crisis, you know, the usual thing: Who am I? What should I do? What should I do? What can I do? And then I was looking at my good work, and what I was doing is I was cutting the forests around here in B.C. and burying you, all of you, in millions of tons of junk mail. Now, that was not very satisfactory. So some people buy a Porsche. Others get a mistress. But I've decided to get my bit to solve global warming and make fusion happen.
当我在英属哥伦比亚大学攻读博士学位时 我发现了核聚变这个难题, 之后我在为印刷工业的激光打印场 找到一份任重而道远的工作。 我在那里工作了 10 年, 感觉工作有些无聊了, 那时我 40 岁,处于中年危机, 你知道,很平常的事: 我是谁?我应该做什么? 我该做什么?我能做什么? 然后我反思我的好工作, 我所做的只是在不列颠哥伦比亚省周围 砍伐森林而已, 并且将你们所有人 埋在百万吨的垃圾邮件里。 而现在,那不是非常令人满意。 所以有些人买了保时捷。 其他人找了情妇。 但我决定去得到自己的赌注 解决全球变暖的问题,让核聚变成为可能。
Now, so the first thing I did is I looked into the literature and I see, how does fusion work? So the physicists have been working on fusion for a while, and one of the ways they do it is with something called a tokamak. It's a big ring of magnetic coil, superconducting coil, and it makes a magnetic field in a ring like this, and the hot gas in the middle, which is called a plasma, is trapped. The particles go round and round and round the circle at the wall. Then they throw a huge amount of heat in there to try to cook that to fusion temperature. So this is the inside of one of those donuts, and on the right side you can see the fusion plasma in there.
现在,我做的第一件事是 我阅览文献记载 了解核聚变如何运行。 物理学家研究核聚变已有一段时间, 它们所做的实现核聚变的方法之一是 使用一个叫做托卡马克的装置。 这是一个有着磁性超导体 线圈的大圆环, 它在圆环内部 形成磁场, 中间部分的被困的灼热气体 叫做等离子体, 那些粒子不断的 在圆环璧上绕圈子。 然后他们将大量的热加入其中 试图加热以达到核聚变的温度。 这是在其中的一个圆环, 在右侧你可以看到的是 聚变等离子体。
Now, a second way of doing this is by using laser fusion. Now in laser fusion, you have a little ping pong ball, you put the fusion fuel in the center, and you zap that with a whole bunch of laser around it. The lasers are very strong, and it squashes the ping pong ball really, really quick. And if you squeeze something hard enough, it gets hotter, and if it gets really, really fast, and they do that in one billionth of a second, it makes enough energy and enough heat to make fusion. So this is the inside of one such machine. You see the laser beam and the pellet in the center.
做这种东西的第二种 方式是激光核聚变。 在激光核聚变中,你有一个乒乓球大小的球, 你将核聚变原料放在中间, 然后用很多束激光在周围向其射击。 那激光非常强, 将那乒乓球在瞬间压扁。 如果你用足够的力挤压某样东西, 它会变热, 如果这个过程发生得非常快, 在十亿分之一秒之内, 它便会产生足够的能量和热量 核聚变便可以发生。 这是这种机器的内部。 你可以看到激光光线和 小球在中间。
Now, most people think that fusion is going nowhere. They always think that the physicists are in their lab and they're working hard, but nothing is happening. That's actually not quite true. This is a curve of the gain in fusion over the last 30 years or so, and you can see that we're making now about 10,000 times more fusion than we used to when we started. That's a pretty good gain. As a matter of fact, it's as fast as the fabled Moore's Law that defined the amount of transistors they can put on a chip. Now, this dot here is called JET, the Joint European Torus. It's a big tokamak donut in Europe, and this machine in 1997 produced 16 megawatts of fusion power with 17 megawatts of heat. Now, you say, that's not much use, but it's actually pretty close, considering we can get about 10,000 times more than we started. The second dot here is the NIF. It's the National Ignition Facility. It's a big laser machine in the U.S., and last month they announced with quite a bit of noise that they had managed to make more fusion energy from the fusion than the energy that they put in the center of the ping pong ball. Now, that's not quite good enough, because the laser to put that energy in was more energy than that, but it was pretty good.
很多人都认为核聚变的研究方面没有任何进展。 他们认为物理学家在实验室中努力研究 但一无所成。 事实并非如此。 这是过去 30 年中 在核聚变方面获得成就的统计图, 和以前当我们开始的时候相比 你可以看到我们现在可以 完成10000 次多核聚变。 那是很大的一个成就。 事实上,核聚变的发展速度和传说中的摩尔定律 事实上,核聚变的发展速度和传说中的摩尔定律 所描述的人们可以将三极管 放在芯片上的发展速度一样。 这个点叫做JET 也就是欧联磁核聚变设备。 它是位于欧洲的一个巨大的托卡马克圆环, 这台机器在 1997 年 在产生 16 兆瓦核聚变功率同时 产生了 17 兆瓦的热量。 现在,你说,那没多大用处, 但事实上,它非常接近, 考虑到我们能得到的 是比我们开始时所产生核聚变能量的10000倍。 这第二个点是NIF。 全称是国家点火装置。 它是在美国的一个大型激光机器, 上个月他们宣布 有不少争议, 他们已经设法 从核聚变那里产生了更多的核聚变能源 比给那个中间乒乓球的更多的能量。 那还不够好, 因为激光投入的能量 是比那个更多的能量。 但已经很不错了。
Now this is ITER, pronounced in French: EE-tairh. So this is a big collaboration of different countries that are building a huge magnetic donut in the south of France, and this machine, when it's finished, will produce 500 megawatts of fusion power with only 50 megawatts to make it. So this one is the real one. It's going to work. That's the kind of machine that makes energy.
这是ITER, 在法语里发音为:EE-tairh。 这是不同国家的一项了不起的合作 建造了一个巨大的磁环, 在法国的南部, 当这个机器被建成后 将可以利用50兆瓦 产生出500兆瓦的核聚变能量。 这一个是真的。 它将会投入工作。 这就是那个能够制造能量的机器。
Now if you look at the graph, you will notice that those two dots are a little bit on the right of the curve. We kind of have fallen off the progress. Actually, the science to make those machines was really in time to produce fusion during that curve. However, there has been a bit of politics going on, and the will to do it was not there, so it drifted to the right. ITER, for example, could have been built in 2000 or 2005, but because it's a big international collaboration, the politics got in and it delayed it a bit. For example, it took them about three years to decide where to put it.
如果你留心了这幅图,你会注意到 那两个点 在曲线右侧。 我们似乎没有赶上进度。 事实上,可以制造那些机器的科学技术 非常及时地 在曲线间实现了核聚变。 但是,有一些政治上的原因 导致此项目的停止 因此那两个点向右侧偏移。 举个例子,ITER本可以在 2000 至 2005 年间建造, 但因为这是一个国际间的合作, 政治因素拖延了它。 而且,人们花了三年去决定把它 放在哪里。
Now, fusion is often criticized for being a little too expensive. Yes, it did cost a billion dollars or two billion dollars a year to make this progress. But you have to compare that to the cost of making Moore's Law. That cost way more than that. The result of Moore's Law is this cell phone here in my pocket. This cell phone, and the Internet behind it, cost about one trillion dollars, just so I can take a selfie and put it on Facebook. Then when my dad sees that, he'll be very proud. We also spend about 650 billion dollars a year in subsidies for oil and gas and renewable energy. Now, we spend one half of a percent of that on fusion. So me, personally, I don't think it's too expensive. I think it's actually been shortchanged, considering it can solve all our energy problems cleanly for the next couple of billions of years.
核聚变总是被批评 因为成本过高, 的确,它要花费 10 至 20 亿美元一年去 取得这样的进步。 但是你得将它的花费和 建造摩尔定律的花费比一下。 是远远超过了核聚变研究的花费的。 摩尔定律的成果 是我口袋里的这个手机。 这个手机,和其使用的互联网 花费将尽一万亿美元, 只是为了我可以拍张自拍, 然后发表到脸谱网上。 当我爸看到的时候 会感到非常骄傲。 我们一年里还花费 6500 亿美元 去补贴石油,燃气 和可再生能源。 迄今,对于核聚变变我们只花了其 0.5% 的开支。 所以我个人认为,我们并没有花费过多。 我认为这实际上是很节约的, 就核聚变在未来几十亿年 可以环保地解决我们所有的能源问题来说,
Now I can say that, but I'm a little bit biased, because I started a fusion company and I don't even have a Facebook account. So when I started this fusion company in 2002, I knew I couldn't fight with the big lads. They had much more resources than me. So I decided I would need to find a solution that is cheaper and faster.
我有些个人偏见,但我这样说 是因为我创建了一家核聚变公司 而且我压根儿不用脸谱网。 在 2002 我刚创建这家核聚变公司时, 我知道我不能跟那些巨头们抗衡。 他们拥有更多的资源。 我决意要找到一个 便宜并迅速的解决方法。
Now magnetic and laser fusion are pretty good machines. They are awesome pieces of technology, wonderful machines, and they have shown that fusion can be done. However, as a power plant, I don't think they're very good. They're way too big, way too complicated, way too expensive, and also, they don't deal very much with the fusion energy. When you make fusion, the energy comes out as neutrons, fast neutrons comes out of the plasma. Those neutrons hit the wall of the machine. It damages it. And also, you have to catch the heat from those neutrons and run some steam to spin a turbine somewhere, and on those machines, it was all a bit of an afterthought. So I decided that surely there is a better way of doing that.
磁场和激光核聚变发生装置 是很不错的机器。 它们是了不起的科研成果, 神奇的机器,而且它们已经展示了 核聚变可以被完成。 但是作为电力工厂, 我不认为它们非常适合。 它们过大,过于复杂, 过于昂贵 而且它们不能处理 很多核聚变能量。 在你制造核聚变时,能量 以中子,以快速的中子形式从等离子体中快速释放出来。 那些中子撞击到机器的边墙 会造成损坏。 而且,你还需要捕获中子所产生的热量 并用蒸汽在某处旋转涡轮, 对于那些机器来说, 这些都有点儿马后炮。 所以我想一定会有更好的方法。
So back to the literature, and I read about the fusion everywhere. One way in particular attracted my attention, and it's called magnetized target fusion, or MTF for short. Now, in MTF, what you want to do is you take a big vat and you fill that with liquid metal, and you spin the liquid metal to open a vortex in the center, a bit like your sink. When you pull the plug on a sink, it makes a vortex. And then you have some pistons driven by pressure that goes on the outside, and this compresses the liquid metal around the plasma, and it compresses it, it gets hotter, like a laser, and then it makes fusion. So it's a bit of a mix between a magnetized fusion and the laser fusion. So those have a couple of very good advantages. The liquid metal absorbs all the neutrons and no neutrons hit the wall, and therefore there's no damage to the machine. The liquid metal gets hot, so you can pump that in a heat exchanger, make some steam, spin a turbine. So that's a very convenient way of doing this part of the process. And finally, all the energy to make the fusion happen comes from steam-powered pistons, which is way cheaper than lasers or superconducting coils.
我又回头阅读文献记录, 读遍了关于核聚变的记载。 有一种方法格外让我着迷, 叫做磁化目标核聚变, 或简称为MTF。 你所需要做的事 是去用一个大桶 装满液态金属, 然后你旋转液态金属 在中心形成一个漩涡, 就像你家里的水槽一样。 当你将水槽中塞子拔掉时,便会形成一个漩涡。 之后由气压驱动的活塞 在机器外围开动, 并压缩等离子体周围的 液态金属,当压缩它的时候 液态金属变热,就像激光一样, 核聚变也就发生了。 那么这就是 磁化核聚变 和激光核聚变的一种混合 这样的核聚变有几点优势。 液态金属吸收所有的中子 没有中子会冲撞墙壁, 因此机器也不会被损坏。 液态金属变热, 你可以将其抽入热量交换器中, 形成一些蒸汽,并旋转涡轮。 这是实现这部分过程的 一个非常便利的方法 这样一来呢,所有用来制造核聚变的能量 都来自于蒸汽动力活塞 其开支要比激光 或超导线圈便宜得多。
Now, this was all very good except for the problem that it didn't quite work. (Laughter) There's always a catch. So when you compress that, the plasma cools down faster than the compression speed, so you're trying to compress it, but the plasma cooled down and cooled down and cooled down and then it did absolutely nothing.
这是个非常好的方法 只是不怎么管用。 (笑声) 总会有意想不到的事。 当你压缩时, 等离子体冷却速率 比压缩速率更快, 虽然你试图进行压缩, 但是那等离子体逐渐冷却, 最后却一无所成。
So when I saw that, I said, well, this is such a shame, because it's a very, very good idea. So hopefully I can improve on that. So I thought about it for a minute, and I said, okay, how can we make that work better? So then I thought about impact. What about if we use a big hammer and we swing it and we hit the nail like this, in the place of putting the hammer on the nail and pushing and try to put it in? That won't work. So what the idea is is to use the idea of an impact. So we accelerate the pistons with steam, that takes a little bit of time, but then, bang! you hit the piston, and, baff!, all the energy is done instantly, down instantly to the liquid, and that compresses the plasma much faster. So I decided, okay, this is good, let's make that.
当看到那时我感到耻辱, 因为那本是一个很好的主意。 但愿我可以改进它。 我想了一会, 怎样才能让它更好的运行呢? 所想到了冲击力。 如果我们是用一个大锤子 用力摆动它,并像用力敲打钉子一样。 我们不能将锤子 放在钉子上推,那不管用。 其核心思想 就是使用撞击力。 我们花些时间 使用蒸汽来加速活塞, 然后就“砰”的一声,活塞受到撞击, 所有能量即刻都有了, 金属变为液体 并且那可以更快的压缩等离子体。 我便决定制作这样的机器。
So we built this machine in this garage here. We made a small machine that we managed to squeeze a little bit of neutrons out of that, and those are my marketing neutrons, and with those marketing neutrons, then I raised about 50 million dollars, and I hired 65 people. That's my team here. And this is what we want to build. So it's going to be a big machine, about three meters in diameter, liquid lead spinning around, big vortex in the center, put the plasma on the top and on the bottom, piston hits on the side, bang!, it compresses it, and it will make some energy, and the neutron will come out in the liquid metal, going to go in a steam engine and make the turbine, and some of the steam will go back to fire the piston. We're going to run that about one time per second, and it will produce 100 megawatts of electricity.
我们便在这个仓库里建造这台机器。 我们做了一个小的机器, 我们成功地从中 挤出了一点中子, 那些便是我们的市场营销中子 那些中子 帮助我们筹集了 5000 万美元, 我雇佣了65个人。这是我的团队。 这就是我们想要建造的。 这将是一台巨大的机器, 直径三米, 液态铅在周围旋转, 巨大的漩涡位于中间, 将等离子体置于顶部和底部, 活塞从周围向内压缩, 嗙!活塞压缩等离子体, 会产生一些能量, 中子便从液态金属中出来, 进入蒸汽引擎带动涡轮 一些蒸汽便会回来 再次弹射出活塞。 我们让它一秒钟运行一次, 便可以得到100兆瓦的电力。
Okay, we also built this injector, so this injector makes the plasma to start with. It makes the plasma at about a lukewarm temperature of three million degrees C. Unfortunately, it doesn't last quite long enough, so we need to extend the life of the plasma a little bit, but last month it got a lot better, so I think we have the plasma compressing now. Then we built a small sphere, about this big, 14 pistons around it, and this will compress the liquid. However, plasma is difficult to compress. When you compress it, it tends to go a little bit crooked like that, so you need the timing of the piston to be very good, and for that we use several control systems, which was not possible in 1970, but we now can do that with nice, new electronics.
我们还造了这个注射器, 这个注射器会让等离子准备继续, 让等离子体达到 微温的300万摄氏度。 不幸的是,它并不能坚持足够长时间, 我们的延长等离子存在的时间, 上个月我们有所进展, 我想我们已经有了等离子体压缩器了。 然后我们建造了一个小球体,大概这么大, 周围有 14 个活塞, 活塞将会压缩液体。 但是压缩等离子体并不简单。 当你压缩它时, 它往往会像这样歪斜, 所以你需要准确的 控制好活塞的时间, 我们用了几个控制系统 来解决这个在1970年不能解决的问题, 但是我们现在可以用 新的,好的电子设备解决此问题。
So finally, most people think that fusion is in the future and will never happen, but as a matter of fact, fusion is getting very close. We are almost there. The big labs have shown that fusion is doable, and now there are small companies that are thinking about that, and they say, it's not that it cannot be done, but it's how to make it cost-effectively. General Fusion is one of those small companies, and hopefully, very soon, somebody, someone, will crack that nut, and perhaps it will be General Fusion.
最后要说的,很多人认为核聚变 是我们的未来但永不会发生, 但事实上,核聚变就要成为现实了。 我们快要成功了。 大型的实验证明了核聚变的可行性, 现在有些小公司都在想这个问题 他们说,核聚变不是不可行的, 问题在于怎么让其经济高效。 通用核聚变是那些小公司之一 未来非常有希望,很快就会有人可以 解决这个难题。 并且可能会是通用核聚变公司
Thank you very much.
非常感谢。
(Applause)
(掌声)