On January 4, 1934, a young man delivered a report to the United States Congress that 80 years on, still shapes the lives of everyone in this room today, still shapes the lives of everyone on this planet. That young man wasn't a politician, he wasn't a businessman, a civil rights activist or a faith leader. He was that most unlikely of heroes, an economist. His name was Simon Kuznets and the report that he delivered was called "National Income, 1929-1932."
1934年1月4日, 一位年輕人撰寫了一份報告, 呈給美國國會。 過了80年, 它仍影響著在座各位今天的生活。 它仍影響著地球上所有人的生活。 那位年輕人並不是從政者, 他不是商人, 亦非民權活動者, 甚或信仰領袖, 和英雄天差地遠, 他是經濟學家。 [西蒙.顧志耐] 他名叫西蒙.顧志耐 他提交的報告則稱為 「國家收入:1929-1932年」
Now, you might think this is a rather dry and dull report. And you're absolutely right. It's dry as a bone. But this report is the foundation of how, today, we judge the success of countries: what we know best as Gross Domestic Product, GDP.
你們可能會想, 這報告應該很艱澀無趣吧。 你完全正確。 它無聊透頂。 但這報告是項基石,時至今日, 我們都據此判斷國家的成功與否: 亦即我們最常聽到的 「國内生產總值」, GDP。
GDP has defined and shaped our lives for the last 80 years. And today I want to talk about a different way to measure the success of countries, a different way to define and shape our lives for the next 80 years.
GDP定義且形塑了我們的生活, 至今已80年。 今天我想要談的是 在未來80年 以另一種不同的方式 來衡量國家的成功, 以另一種不同的方式, 來定義和形塑我們的生活。 但首先,我們來了解一下,
But first, we have to understand how GDP came to dominate our lives. Kuznets' report was delivered at a moment of crisis. The U.S. economy was plummeting into the Great Depression and policy makers were struggling to respond. Struggling because they didn't know what was going on. They didn't have data and statistics. So what Kuznet's report gave them was reliable data on what the U.S. economy was producing, updated year by year. And armed with this information, policy makers were, eventually, able to find a way out of the slump. And because Kuznets' invention was found to be so useful, it spread around the world. And now today, every country produces GDP statistics.
GDP是如何主宰我們的生活。 顧志耐的報告, 是在經濟危機的時候寫的。 美國經濟在當時一落千丈, 造成了「經濟大蕭條」。 執政者想破頭,不知所措, 不知所措是因為 他們根本不知道怎麼回事, 他們沒有數據或統計資料。 顧志耐的報告提供了 有關美國經濟生產的可靠數據, 年復一年地更新。 有了這些資訊, 執政者終於 能夠找出谷底翻身的方法, 且因為大家發現顧志耐的發明 非常有用, 它傳到世界各地。 時至今日,每個國家 都會做出國內生產總額的統計資料。 然而,在那第一份報告裏,
But, in that first report, Kuznets himself delivered a warning. It's in the introductory chapter. On page seven he says, "The welfare of a nation can, therefore, scarcely be inferred from a measurement of national income as defined above." It's not the greatest sound bite in the world, and it's dressed up in the cautious language of the economist. But his message was clear: GDP is a tool to help us measure economic performance. It's not a measure of our well-being. And it shouldn't be a guide to all decision making.
顧志耐本人 在前言中提出一個警告 在第7頁裡他提到: 「因此一個國家的利益福祉, 不應從 前述定義之衡量國家收入的 指數來推斷。」 這並非偉大的世界名言, 而是經濟學者的謹慎囑咐, 他很清楚地傳達: GDP實為一項工具, 它協助我們量化經濟的表現, 而非人民福祉的衡量標準, 不應將之做為導引所有決策的大旗。 但我們忽視了顧志耐的警告。
But we have ignored Kuznets' warning. We live in a world where GDP is the benchmark of success in a global economy. Our politicians boast when GDP goes up. Markets move and trillions of dollars of capital move around the world based on which countries are going up and which countries are going down, all measured in GDP. Our societies have become engines to create more GDP.
我們身處的世界, GDP是全球經濟 成功與否的基準, 政客醉心於GDP成長。 市場數以兆計的資金在全球活動, 基於於哪些國家經濟成長或衰退, 都是依據GDP來衡量。 我們的社會已變成 只顧提高GDP數字的盲目機器。 但我們知道GDP並非完美,
But we know that GDP is flawed. It ignores the environment. It counts bombs and prisons as progress. It can't count happiness or community. And it has nothing to say about fairness or justice. Is it any surprise that our world, marching to the drumbeat of GDP, is teetering on the brink of environmental disaster and filled with anger and conflict?
它忽視環保議題, 它把炸彈的生產和 監獄的修建視為進步, 但卻無法計算人民幸福或社區, 亦無法反映公平與正義。 你會驚訝嗎? 訝異於我們的世界, 跟隨GDP的鼓聲大步向前, 正在環境災難的邊緣遙遙欲墜, 四處充滿憤怒與衝突?
We need a better way to measure our societies, a measure based on the real things that matter to real people. Do I have enough to eat? Can I read and write? Am I safe? Do I have rights? Do I live in a society where I'm not discriminated against? Is my future and the future of my children prevented from environmental destruction? These are questions that GDP does not and cannot answer.
我們需要更好的方式 來衡量我們的社會, 衡量人民真正在乎的事物。 我是否能糊口? 能否讀和寫? 是否安居樂業? 是否擁有人權? 社會是否平等、沒有歧視? 我的未來後代、子孫的未來 是否不會受環境破壞所影響? 這些問題都是GDP 不會也不能回答的。
There have, of course, been efforts in the past to move beyond GDP. But I believe that we're living in a moment when we are ready for a measurement revolution. We're ready because we've seen, in the financial crisis of 2008, how our fetish for economic growth led us so far astray. We've seen, in the Arab Spring, how countries like Tunisia were supposedly economic superstars, but they were societies that were seething with discontentment. We're ready, because today we have the technology to gather and analyze data in ways that would have been unimaginable to Kuznets.
在過去,當然, 已有一些努力, 希望跨越GDP。 我相信我們正處於 最適合革新測量標準的時刻, 我們覺得水到渠成了, 因為我們看見2008年的金融危機 肇因於對經濟成長的盲目崇拜 而迷失方向, 我們看到,在阿拉伯之春, 本應為經濟超級新星的 突尼西亞等國家, 國內社會卻瀰漫不滿的聲音。 一切水到渠成了,因為現今科技 足以收集並分析更多數據, 大大超越了過去顧志耐的想像, 今天,我要向各位介紹
Today, I'd like to introduce you to the Social Progress Index. It's a measure of the well-being of society, completely separate from GDP. It's a whole new way of looking at the world. The Social Progress Index begins by defining what it means to be a good society based around three dimensions. The first is, does everyone have the basic needs for survival: food, water, shelter, safety? Secondly, does everyone have access to the building blocks to improve their lives: education, information, health and sustainable environment? And then third, does every individual have access to a chance to pursue their goals and dreams and ambitions free from obstacles? Do they have rights, freedom of choice, freedom from discrimination and access to the the world's most advanced knowledge? Together, these 12 components form the Social Progress framework. And for each of these 12 components, we have indicators to measure how countries are performing. Not indicators of effort or intention, but real achievement. We don't measure how much a country spends on healthcare, we measure the length and quality of people's lives. We don't measure whether governments pass laws against discrimination, we measure whether people experience discrimination.
「社會進步指數」 (Social Progress Index), 它是評估社會人民的福祉的標準, 和GDP涇渭分明。 [社會進步指數] 這是以一個全新的視角觀看世界。 [社會進步指數] 社會進步指數 始於定義何謂理想的社會, 它基於三個面向: 第一: 是否滿足人人的基本生存需求? 如食物、水、住所、安全? 第二: 是否人人皆擁有 提昇生活品質的基礎要素, 如教育、資訊、健康及永續環境? 第三: 是否人人皆有 追求自我實現 目標、理想、抱負的可能性? 不受任何阻礙? 他們是否擁有人權, 自由選擇的權利、 不受歧視的權利、 以及接觸世界最先進知識的權利? 這12個項目共同組成 「社會進步」的架構。 12項中的每一項, 我們設定了量測基準, 來評估每個國家的表現, 不是考量努力程度、或是意向, 而是考量實際的成果。 我們不計算國家健保支出, 我們量測國民壽命長短及生活品質。 我們不考量政府是否通過反歧視法案, 我們量測民眾受歧視的親身經驗。
But what you want to know is who's top, don't you? (Laughter) I knew that, I knew that, I knew that. Okay, I'm going to show you. I'm going to show you on this chart. So here we are, what I've done here is put on the vertical axis social progress. Higher is better. And then, just for comparison, just for fun, on the horizontal axis is GDP per capita. Further to the right is more. So the country in the world with the highest social progress, the number one country on social progress is New Zealand. (Applause) Well done! Never been; must go. (Laughter) The country with the least social progress, I'm sorry to say, is Chad. I've never been; maybe next year. (Laughter) Or maybe the year after.
但你們最想知道的, 應該是各國排名,對吧? (笑聲) 我明白,我明白,我明白。 好,我給大家看看, 我給你們看看這張圖表。 來了, 這邊我把社會進步放在縱軸, 越高表示越好, 然後,我們來比較一下, 好玩嘛, 橫軸代表人均GDP。 越右邊表示越高。 所以世界上 擁有最高的社會進步, 社會進步第一高的國家 是 ‧ ‧ ‧ ‧ ‧ 紐西蘭。 (鼓掌) 做得好!我沒去過那,必須去一下。 (笑聲) 社會進步最低的國家, 很抱歉我必須說,是查德。 我沒去過那,或許明年吧。 (笑聲) 或者後年吧。
Now, I know what you're thinking. You're thinking, "Aha, but New Zealand has a higher GDP than Chad!" It's a good point, well made. But let me show you two other countries. Here's the United States — considerably richer than New Zealand, but with a lower level of social progress. And then here's Senegal — it's got a higher level of social progress than Chad, but the same level of GDP. So what's going on? Well, look. Let me bring in the rest of the countries of the world, the 132 we've been able to measure, each one represented by a dot. There we go. Lots of dots. Now, obviously I can't do all of them, so a few highlights for you: The highest ranked G7 country is Canada. My country, the United Kingdom, is sort of middling, sort of dull, but who cares — at least we beat the French. (Laughter) And then looking at the emerging economies, top of the BRICS, pleased to say, is Brazil. (Applause) Come on, cheer! Go, Brazil! Beating South Africa, then Russia, then China and then India. Tucked away on the right-hand side, you will see a dot of a country with a lot of GDP but not a huge amount of social progress — that's Kuwait. Just above Brazil is a social progress superpower — that's Costa Rica. It's got a level of social progress the same as some Western European countries, with a much lower GDP.
好,我知道你們在想什麼, 你們在想:「啊哈, 但是紐西蘭的GDP 比查德高喔! 但是紐西蘭的GDP 比查德高喔!」 你說得對,說得好。 但我給大家瞧瞧 另外兩個國家。 請看美國 - 遠比紐西蘭有錢, 但社會進步程度相對較低。 然後請看塞內加爾 - 社會進步程度優於查德, 但GDP水準相同。 這怎麼回事?好,看著, 我來把其他世界各國都放上來, 共132國,只要我們能夠測量的 一個點代表一個國家。 來了,一堆點。 顯然我無法逐一說明, 我給大家提示幾個, 七大工業國(G7)裡面, 排名最高的是加拿大。 我的祖國,英國呢, 位居中間,中庸無聊, 管他的... 好歹我們贏法國啦。 (笑聲) (掌聲) 然後看看發展中的經濟體, 金磚四國第一名, 很高興宣佈:巴西。 (鼓掌) 來啦,歡呼一下! 巴西加油! 打敗南非、 俄國、 中國、 以及印度。 藏在右手邊的, 你們可以看到那個點 有很高的GDP, 但社會進步指數不高的: 科威特。 另一個高於巴西的 是社會進步的強力代表: 哥斯大黎加。 它的生活進步 和一些西方國家旗鼓相當, GDP卻低很多。
Now, my slide is getting a little cluttered and I'd like to step back a bit. So let me take away these countries, and then pop in the regression line. So this shows the average relationship between GDP and social progress. The first thing to notice, is that there's lots of noise around the trend line. And what this shows, what this empirically demonstrates, is that GDP is not destiny. At every level of GDP per capita, there are opportunities for more social progress, risks of less. The second thing to notice is that for poor countries, the curve is really steep. So what this tells us is that if poor countries can get a little bit of extra GDP, and if they reinvest that in doctors, nurses, water supplies, sanitation, etc., there's a lot of social progress bang for your GDP buck. And that's good news, and that's what we've seen over the last 20, 30 years, with a lot of people lifted out of poverty by economic growth and good policies in poorer countries.
好,現在投影片畫面有點滿, 我要退後點看, 把國家名稱拿掉、 秀出回歸線, 如此可以顯出平均GDP 和平均生活水準的相對關係。 如此可以顯出平均GDP 和平均社會進步的相對關係。 首先注意看, 趨勢線附近有很多偏移點, 趨勢線附近有很多偏移點, 這表示, 這個基於經驗顯示的是, GDP不是一切。 相同的人均GDP水準, 人民的社會進步可能較高, 也可能更差。 第二件事: 就是對貧窮國家來說 上升斜率很大, 意思是說, 貧窮國家只要 增加一點點GDP, 將其投入在 醫護資源、水資源、 衛生條件等等, 只要一點點GDP 就能有長足的社會進步。 只要一點點GDP 就能有長足的社會進步。 這是個好消息啊, 也是我們這二、三十年看到的, 以經濟成長和良善政策 讓落後國家的民眾脫離貧困。 以經濟成長和良善政策 讓落後國家的民眾脫離貧困。 以經濟成長和良善政策 讓落後國家的民眾脫離貧困。
But go on a bit further up the curve, and then we see it flattening out. Each extra dollar of GDP is buying less and less social progress. And with more and more of the world's population living on this part of the curve, it means GDP is becoming less and less useful as a guide to our development. I'll show you an example of Brazil.
不過跟著曲線再往上走, 趨勢變得比較平緩。 多出來的GDP, 換得的社會進步程度就低很多, 而世界上越來越多的人口 都是在這個區間生存, 也就意味著GDP變得 越來越沒用, 無法卻引導未來的發展。 我給大家看看巴西的例子。
Here's Brazil: social progress of about 70 out of 100, GDP per capita about 14,000 dollars a year. And look, Brazil's above the line. Brazil is doing a reasonably good job of turning GDP into social progress. But where does Brazil go next? Let's say that Brazil adopts a bold economic plan to double GDP in the next decade. But that is only half a plan. It's less than half a plan, because where does Brazil want to go on social progress? Brazil, it's possible to increase your growth, increase your GDP, while stagnating or going backwards on social progress. We don't want Brazil to become like Russia. What you really want is for Brazil to get ever more efficient at creating social progress from its GDP, so it becomes more like New Zealand. And what that means is that Brazil needs to prioritize social progress in its development plan and see that it's not just growth alone, it's growth with social progress. And that's what the Social Progress Index does: It reframes the debate about development, not just about GDP alone, but inclusive, sustainable growth that brings real improvements in people's lives. And it's not just about countries.
這是巴西, 人民生活水準 滿分100裡面拿了70分, 一年人均GDP約1萬4千美元。 瞧,巴西優於回歸預測線。 在移轉GDP到社會進步發展上, 巴西做得很好。 在移轉GDP到社會進步發展上, 巴西做得很好。 但巴西接下來該往哪兒走? 或許巴西想要 採取大膽的經濟方案, 希望十年內讓GDP翻一倍, 但那只計劃了一半, 甚至一半都不到啊。 因為,巴西人民的社會進步 該何去何從呢? 巴西,你可以 讓經濟成長, 提昇GDP, 然而生活水準可能會退步或低迷, 然而社會進步可能會退步或低迷, 我們不希望巴西 向俄國看齊。 我們真心希望巴西 它的GDP可以有效地 創造更好的社會進步, 希望它朝紐西蘭的方向邁進。 那就表示, 巴西的發展藍圖 應該將生活水準放在優先順位, 不只看到經濟的成長, 而是要伴隨著社會進步的提昇。 這就是「社會進步指標」的作用: 它對國家發展的爭議重新定義, 不僅止於GDP, 更包含永續的發展, 為人民的生活帶來真正的改善。 而且不只是國家的而已。
Earlier this year, with our friends from the Imazon nonprofit here in Brazil, we launched the first subnational Social Progress Index. We did it for the Amazon region. It's an area the size of Europe, 24 million people, one of the most deprived parts of the country. And here are the results, and this is broken down into nearly 800 different municipalities. And with this detailed information about the real quality of life in this part of the country, Imazon and other partners from government, business and civil society can work together to construct a development plan that will help really improve people's lives, while protecting that precious global asset that is the Amazon Rainforest. And this is just the beginning, You can create a Social Progress Index for any state, region, city or municipality. We all know and love TEDx; this is Social Pogress-x. This is a tool for anyone to come and use.
今年初, 與一些我們在巴西的一個非營利組織 「伊馬遜」的朋友 我們首次發佈了第一個地方政府的 社會進步指數, 那是亞馬遜地區的。 該地區面積和歐洲大陸相同, 2千4百萬人口, 是巴西國內最為落後的區域, 調查結果如圖。 統計結果 細分到自治市層級(近800個), 有了這些細部的資訊, 反應此區域真實的生活品質, 「伊馬遜」和配合的政府機構、 商業和民間單位 「伊馬遜」和配合的政府機構、 商業和民間社群 可以共同合作 打造出一項發展計畫, 協助真正地提昇人民生活水準, 同時並保護地球的珍貴資產: 亞馬遜雨林。 同時並保護地球的珍貴資產: 亞馬遜雨林。 這只是個開始。 你可以為任何州、郡、市、縣, 做出社會進步指標, 你可以為任何州、郡、市、縣, 做出社會進步指標, 大家都知道也喜愛「TEDx」嘛, 就仿效稱之為「社會進步x」吧。 它是任何人都能使用的工具, 相對於我們常說
Contrary to the way we sometimes talk about it, GDP was not handed down from God on tablets of stone. (Laughter) It's a measurement tool invented in the 20th century to address the challenges of the 20th century. In the 21st century, we face new challenges: aging, obesity, climate change, and so on. To face those challenges, we need new tools of measurement, new ways of valuing progress.
GDP可不是由神所定, 刻在碑石上的啊。(笑聲) GDP是20世紀發明的量測工具, 用以面對20世紀的挑戰。 但在21世紀, 我們面臨新的難題, 人口老化、肥胖、氣候變遷等等, 要面對這些挑戰, 我們需要新的尺度工具, 新的評價機制。 想像如果我們可以測量
Imagine if we could measure what nonprofits, charities, volunteers, civil society organizations really contribute to our society. Imagine if businesses competed not just on the basis of their economic contribution, but on their contribution to social progress. Imagine if we could hold politicians to account for really improving people's lives. Imagine if we could work together — government, business, civil society, me, you — and make this century the century of social progress. Thank you. (Applause)
非營利、慈善機構、 志工、民間社會團體 對我們社會真正的貢獻。 想像若商業競爭 不只是基於對經濟的貢獻, 而是對社會進步的貢獻。 想像我們可以要求從政者重視 真正對人民生活有助益的事。 想像若我們能攜手合作 - 政府、商界、民間社群、我、你... 讓這個世紀成為社會進步的新紀元。 謝謝。 (掌聲)