On January 4, 1934, a young man delivered a report to the United States Congress that 80 years on, still shapes the lives of everyone in this room today, still shapes the lives of everyone on this planet. That young man wasn't a politician, he wasn't a businessman, a civil rights activist or a faith leader. He was that most unlikely of heroes, an economist. His name was Simon Kuznets and the report that he delivered was called "National Income, 1929-1932."
1934年一月四日, 一个年轻人向美国国会提交了 一份报告。 如今80年过去了, 那份报告依然塑造着我们在座各位生活 塑造着地球所每一个人的生活 那个年轻人不是一位政治家, 不是一位商人, 不是一位民权活动者 也不是一位宗教领袖。 他是最不可能成为英雄的那类人, 一位经济学家。 他叫西蒙·库兹涅茨 他提交的报告叫做 “国民收入,1929-1932”
Now, you might think this is a rather dry and dull report. And you're absolutely right. It's dry as a bone. But this report is the foundation of how, today, we judge the success of countries: what we know best as Gross Domestic Product, GDP.
现在,你可能会想 这该是一份多么枯燥无味的报告 毫无疑问你是对的 这枯燥得像骨头。 但这份报告是我们今天衡量一个国家 成功与否的标准: 我们最了解的莫过于国内生产 总值, GDP。
GDP has defined and shaped our lives for the last 80 years. And today I want to talk about a different way to measure the success of countries, a different way to define and shape our lives for the next 80 years.
GDP已经定义和塑造我们的生活 有80年之久了。 今天我想讨论的是 另外一种衡量国家是否成功的方法, 另外一种,在未来80年里将 定义和塑造我们生活的方法。
But first, we have to understand how GDP came to dominate our lives. Kuznets' report was delivered at a moment of crisis. The U.S. economy was plummeting into the Great Depression and policy makers were struggling to respond. Struggling because they didn't know what was going on. They didn't have data and statistics. So what Kuznet's report gave them was reliable data on what the U.S. economy was producing, updated year by year. And armed with this information, policy makers were, eventually, able to find a way out of the slump. And because Kuznets' invention was found to be so useful, it spread around the world. And now today, every country produces GDP statistics.
但首先,我们必须明白 GDP是如何支配我们生活的。 库兹涅茨的报告 是在危及时刻提交的。 美国经济正在 跌入大萧条当中, 而政策制定者正疲于挣扎着应对这种状况 挣扎是因为他们并不明白到底怎么回事儿。 他们没有统计数据。 所以库兹涅兹的报告给他们的 是有关美国经济 正在创收的可靠数据, 并且逐年更新。 掌握了这些数据之后, 执政者们终于能够找到 对策应付这场衰退了。 而库兹涅兹的发明 是如此的成功, 它被传播到世界各地。 今天,每一个国家都进行 GDP统计。
But, in that first report, Kuznets himself delivered a warning. It's in the introductory chapter. On page seven he says, "The welfare of a nation can, therefore, scarcely be inferred from a measurement of national income as defined above." It's not the greatest sound bite in the world, and it's dressed up in the cautious language of the economist. But his message was clear: GDP is a tool to help us measure economic performance. It's not a measure of our well-being. And it shouldn't be a guide to all decision making.
但是,在那份最初的报告里 库兹涅兹自己还提交了一份警告 就在引言那一章中 在第七页,他说道: “因此,一个国家的国民福利 勉强可以通过测定 上述定义的国民收入 推断出来。“ 这并不是世界上最伟大的一句话 它是用经济学家谨慎的语言表述出来的 但是他的信息是清楚的: GDP是一个工具, 它帮助我们测量国家经济表现, 它并不能用来测量我们的幸福感。 而且它也不应该成为制定所有政策的导向。
But we have ignored Kuznets' warning. We live in a world where GDP is the benchmark of success in a global economy. Our politicians boast when GDP goes up. Markets move and trillions of dollars of capital move around the world based on which countries are going up and which countries are going down, all measured in GDP. Our societies have become engines to create more GDP.
但是我们忽视了库兹涅兹的警告。 我们生活在一个世界, GDP成为衡量一个国家在全球经济化中 是否成功的基准。 我们的政治家们因为GDP增长而自吹自擂。 市场的走向 和数万亿资本 在世界范围内的流通 是基于哪一个国家正在崛起, 哪一个国家正在衰落, 这些都是由GDP测量出来的。 我们的社会已经成为 生产GDP的巨大发动机了。
But we know that GDP is flawed. It ignores the environment. It counts bombs and prisons as progress. It can't count happiness or community. And it has nothing to say about fairness or justice. Is it any surprise that our world, marching to the drumbeat of GDP, is teetering on the brink of environmental disaster and filled with anger and conflict?
但是我们知道GDP是存在缺陷的。 它忽略了环境。 随着进步它也算上了炸弹和监狱 但它却无法算上幸福或者和谐。 它也谈不上公平或正义 这有什么好惊讶的呢? 我们的世界正走在GDP的节奏上 在环境灾难的边缘摇摇欲坠 并且充满了愤怒和冲突
We need a better way to measure our societies, a measure based on the real things that matter to real people. Do I have enough to eat? Can I read and write? Am I safe? Do I have rights? Do I live in a society where I'm not discriminated against? Is my future and the future of my children prevented from environmental destruction? These are questions that GDP does not and cannot answer.
为了整个社会,我们需要更好的测量工具, 是基于真实的东西, 对人们真正重要的测量。 我能不能填饱肚子? 我可以读书写字吗? 我安全吗? 我有任何权利吗? 我是否生活在一个没有歧视我的社会? 我和我孩子的未来是否受到环境毁坏的威胁? 这些问题都是GDP 没有也无法回答的。
There have, of course, been efforts in the past to move beyond GDP. But I believe that we're living in a moment when we are ready for a measurement revolution. We're ready because we've seen, in the financial crisis of 2008, how our fetish for economic growth led us so far astray. We've seen, in the Arab Spring, how countries like Tunisia were supposedly economic superstars, but they were societies that were seething with discontentment. We're ready, because today we have the technology to gather and analyze data in ways that would have been unimaginable to Kuznets.
当然,已经有人 在努力尝试 超越GDP的行动。 但是,我相信,我们正生活 在这样的时刻, 为一场检验方法的革命做好了准备。 我们准备好了,是因为我们看到了 发生在2008年的经济危机, 看到了我们对经济增长的迷恋如何把我们 带到一条不归路上。 我们已经看到了,在阿拉伯之春 像突尼斯这样的国家 本应该是经济上的巨星, 但是他们的社会 却在不公中沸腾。 我们已经准备好了,因为今天我们 掌握了这样的技术 去收集和分析数据, 这种方式是库兹涅兹无法想象的。
Today, I'd like to introduce you to the Social Progress Index. It's a measure of the well-being of society, completely separate from GDP. It's a whole new way of looking at the world. The Social Progress Index begins by defining what it means to be a good society based around three dimensions. The first is, does everyone have the basic needs for survival: food, water, shelter, safety? Secondly, does everyone have access to the building blocks to improve their lives: education, information, health and sustainable environment? And then third, does every individual have access to a chance to pursue their goals and dreams and ambitions free from obstacles? Do they have rights, freedom of choice, freedom from discrimination and access to the the world's most advanced knowledge? Together, these 12 components form the Social Progress framework. And for each of these 12 components, we have indicators to measure how countries are performing. Not indicators of effort or intention, but real achievement. We don't measure how much a country spends on healthcare, we measure the length and quality of people's lives. We don't measure whether governments pass laws against discrimination, we measure whether people experience discrimination.
今天,我想向大家介绍一下 社会进步指数。 这才是测量 社会健康程度的工具。 是完全不同于GDP的。 是以一个全新的视角看待世界。 社会进步指数 首先定义 什么是良好的社会, 这基于三个方面。 第一个是,人们能够满足基本生存需求吗? 比如食物,水,房屋,安全 第二:人们能 通过各种途径提升自己的生活质量吗? 比如教育,信息,健康和可持续发展的环境。 第三个,每一个个体都有机会 追寻他们的目标、 梦想和抱负 而不受阻扰吗? 他们能有权利, 有选择的自由, 并不受歧视 并能学到世界上最先进的知识吗? 这12个部分一起 组成了社会进步的骨架。 我们对这12个部分, 都有相应的指标,来测定不同国家的表现。 这些指标都不指示努力或者意向, 但都是真实的成就。 我们不看一个国家在医疗保健上投入了多少钱, 我们看国民生活质量和寿命长短。 我们不看政府是否通过针对歧视的法律, 我们看人们是否遭受着歧视。
But what you want to know is who's top, don't you? (Laughter) I knew that, I knew that, I knew that. Okay, I'm going to show you. I'm going to show you on this chart. So here we are, what I've done here is put on the vertical axis social progress. Higher is better. And then, just for comparison, just for fun, on the horizontal axis is GDP per capita. Further to the right is more. So the country in the world with the highest social progress, the number one country on social progress is New Zealand. (Applause) Well done! Never been; must go. (Laughter) The country with the least social progress, I'm sorry to say, is Chad. I've never been; maybe next year. (Laughter) Or maybe the year after.
但是,你们想知道的 是谁排第一,对不对? (笑) 我知道,我知道,我知道。 好,我会展示给你们。 看到这个坐标图了吧 就是这个, 在这个坐标系上, 纵坐标是社会进步指数。 越高越好。 然后呢,我们开始比较, 只是为了好玩, 在横坐标是人均GDP。 越向右边越大。 所以呢,世界上 社会进步指数最高的国家, 排名第一的国家是 新西兰。 (掌声) 干得漂亮!没去过;一定得去一趟。 (笑) 社会指数最低的国家, 很抱歉,是乍得。 我也没有去过那里,也许明年吧。 (笑) 或者是后年。
Now, I know what you're thinking. You're thinking, "Aha, but New Zealand has a higher GDP than Chad!" It's a good point, well made. But let me show you two other countries. Here's the United States — considerably richer than New Zealand, but with a lower level of social progress. And then here's Senegal — it's got a higher level of social progress than Chad, but the same level of GDP. So what's going on? Well, look. Let me bring in the rest of the countries of the world, the 132 we've been able to measure, each one represented by a dot. There we go. Lots of dots. Now, obviously I can't do all of them, so a few highlights for you: The highest ranked G7 country is Canada. My country, the United Kingdom, is sort of middling, sort of dull, but who cares — at least we beat the French. (Laughter) And then looking at the emerging economies, top of the BRICS, pleased to say, is Brazil. (Applause) Come on, cheer! Go, Brazil! Beating South Africa, then Russia, then China and then India. Tucked away on the right-hand side, you will see a dot of a country with a lot of GDP but not a huge amount of social progress — that's Kuwait. Just above Brazil is a social progress superpower — that's Costa Rica. It's got a level of social progress the same as some Western European countries, with a much lower GDP.
现在,我知道你们在想什么。 你们在想:“啊哈, 但是新西兰的GDP 相对于乍得要高得多!“ 有道理,有见地。 但是,让我告诉你 另外两个国家的情况。 这是美国—— 比新西兰富裕多了, 但是其社会进步指数要低一点。 这是塞内加尔- 它的社会进步指数要比乍得高, 但是却处于同一GDP水平。 这发生了什么?好,接下来。 我把剩下的国家都放上去, 我们一共测到了132个国家, 每一个国家都用一个点表示。 我们看到好多的点。 现在,很明显我不能每一个都介绍一遍, 所以选取一些突出的: G7国家里面排名最高的是加拿大。 我的祖国,英国, 大概在中间,比较沉闷, 但谁在乎呢—— 至少我们击败了法国。 (笑) 然后再看看正在崛起的经济体, 金砖各国里排名最高的,很高兴的说,是巴西 (掌声) 拜托,欢呼起来! 好样的,巴西! 击败了南非, 俄罗斯, 然后中国 还有印度, 隐藏在右手边, 你会看到有一个点,这个点代表的国家GDP非常大 但是它的社会进步指数却不那么高- 这是科威特。 在巴西上面 是一个社会进步指数的超级大国- 那是哥斯达黎加。 它的社会进步指数与欧洲国家处在同一水平上, 但是GDP却要低得多。
Now, my slide is getting a little cluttered and I'd like to step back a bit. So let me take away these countries, and then pop in the regression line. So this shows the average relationship between GDP and social progress. The first thing to notice, is that there's lots of noise around the trend line. And what this shows, what this empirically demonstrates, is that GDP is not destiny. At every level of GDP per capita, there are opportunities for more social progress, risks of less. The second thing to notice is that for poor countries, the curve is really steep. So what this tells us is that if poor countries can get a little bit of extra GDP, and if they reinvest that in doctors, nurses, water supplies, sanitation, etc., there's a lot of social progress bang for your GDP buck. And that's good news, and that's what we've seen over the last 20, 30 years, with a lot of people lifted out of poverty by economic growth and good policies in poorer countries.
现在我的幻灯片开始变得凌乱了, 我想我应该退后几张。 好,让我把这些国家移除, 然后放一条回归曲线。 这显示除了GDP和社会进步指数之间的 大致关系。 我们首先注意到, 在趋势线的附近有许多的 背景噪声。 这表示 从经验上已经证实, GDP并不是目的。 处在任何一个人均GDP水平上, 我们都有机会提高社会进步指数, 并且风险更低。 我们应该注意到的第二件事情是 对于贫穷的国家来说, 曲线是非常陡峭的。 这告诉我们 如果贫穷的国家可以 得到一点额外的GDP 并且把这部分重新投资在 医疗设施建设和供水系统 改善卫生状况当中, 那么你的GDP增长还可以引起 很多的社会进步反响。 这是一个好消息,这也是我们在过去 20年,30年之内所见到的, 在更加贫困的国家, 因为经济增长和有利政策 许多人都脱离了贫困。
But go on a bit further up the curve, and then we see it flattening out. Each extra dollar of GDP is buying less and less social progress. And with more and more of the world's population living on this part of the curve, it means GDP is becoming less and less useful as a guide to our development. I'll show you an example of Brazil.
再看曲线较高的那一部分, 然后我们看到曲线变得渐渐平坦。 之后每增加的一份GDP 将得到越来越少的社会进步的增长。 随着世界上越来越多的人 生活在这一部分的曲线当中, 这意味着GDP 作为发展导向的作用 正变得越来越小。 我会拿巴西作为一个例子。
Here's Brazil: social progress of about 70 out of 100, GDP per capita about 14,000 dollars a year. And look, Brazil's above the line. Brazil is doing a reasonably good job of turning GDP into social progress. But where does Brazil go next? Let's say that Brazil adopts a bold economic plan to double GDP in the next decade. But that is only half a plan. It's less than half a plan, because where does Brazil want to go on social progress? Brazil, it's possible to increase your growth, increase your GDP, while stagnating or going backwards on social progress. We don't want Brazil to become like Russia. What you really want is for Brazil to get ever more efficient at creating social progress from its GDP, so it becomes more like New Zealand. And what that means is that Brazil needs to prioritize social progress in its development plan and see that it's not just growth alone, it's growth with social progress. And that's what the Social Progress Index does: It reframes the debate about development, not just about GDP alone, but inclusive, sustainable growth that brings real improvements in people's lives. And it's not just about countries.
这是巴西: 社会进步指数大概在70(满分100), 人均GDP大概在14,000美元一年。 看,巴西是处于这条线的上方。 在把GDP转化为社会进步指数这方面, 巴西做得相当不错。 但是,接下来巴西会走向那里呢? 我们假设巴西 采取了一个风险较大的经济计划 在未来十年内,GDP翻了一翻。 但这是计划的一半。 应该是一半都不到 因为巴西的社会进步指数又会怎么变化呢? 巴西有可能 增加发展, 增加GDP, 但是却在社会进步上 变得停滞不前甚至倒退。 我们都不希望巴西 变得和俄罗斯一样。 我们真正希望巴西做的 是从GDP那里更有效地助动社会进步, 所以这会让它变得更象新西兰。 这意味着 巴西在其发展计划当中 需要优先提高社会进步。 而且弄清楚这不仅仅是经济增长, 而是社会的进步。 这就是社会进步指数所做的: 它重新构架了关于发展的讨论, 这并不只是GDP而已, 而是更包容的,可持续的增长, 给人们的生活水平带来实质性的提高。 而不只是不同国家的比较。
Earlier this year, with our friends from the Imazon nonprofit here in Brazil, we launched the first subnational Social Progress Index. We did it for the Amazon region. It's an area the size of Europe, 24 million people, one of the most deprived parts of the country. And here are the results, and this is broken down into nearly 800 different municipalities. And with this detailed information about the real quality of life in this part of the country, Imazon and other partners from government, business and civil society can work together to construct a development plan that will help really improve people's lives, while protecting that precious global asset that is the Amazon Rainforest. And this is just the beginning, You can create a Social Progress Index for any state, region, city or municipality. We all know and love TEDx; this is Social Pogress-x. This is a tool for anyone to come and use.
今年早些时候, 在巴西当地,和我们来自 Imazon非营利组织的朋友一起, 我们开展了第一个地方性的社会进步指数。 我们是为了亚马逊地区办的。 这片区域大概有一个欧洲那么大, 两千四百万人口, 是这个国家里面最落后的地区之一。 这里是我们的一些成果, 这细分成了 将近800个不同的城市。 有了这些有关于 这个国家当中这些地区的人 真实生活水平的细节性信息, Imanzon和其他 来自政府的,企业的,民间的伙伴 可以合作,共同构建 一个发展计划, 来真正帮助人们提高生活水平, 同时还可以保护地球的宝贵财富, 那就是亚马逊热带雨林。 而这只是一个开始, 我们可以得到 任何一个国家,一个地区,城市, 直辖市的社会进步指数。 我们都知道并热爱TEDx; 这就是社会进步的x因素。 这是一个任何人都可以利用的工具
Contrary to the way we sometimes talk about it, GDP was not handed down from God on tablets of stone. (Laughter) It's a measurement tool invented in the 20th century to address the challenges of the 20th century. In the 21st century, we face new challenges: aging, obesity, climate change, and so on. To face those challenges, we need new tools of measurement, new ways of valuing progress.
与我们平时讨论方式相反的是, GDP并不是上帝掷给我们的一块石头。(笑) 它是20世纪开发出来的测量工具 用来解决20世纪的问题。 在21世纪, 我们面对的是全新的挑战: 人口老龄化,肥胖,气候转变等等。 为了解决这些挑战, 我们需要新的测量工具, 新的评价进步的方法。
Imagine if we could measure what nonprofits, charities, volunteers, civil society organizations really contribute to our society. Imagine if businesses competed not just on the basis of their economic contribution, but on their contribution to social progress. Imagine if we could hold politicians to account for really improving people's lives. Imagine if we could work together — government, business, civil society, me, you — and make this century the century of social progress. Thank you. (Applause)
想像一下,假如我们可以测量 非营利组织,慈善机构, 志愿者,民间社会组织 对我们社会的做了什么贡献。 想象假如企业之间的竞争 并不只是基于经济效益, 而是关于他们对社会进步的贡献。 想象我们可以让政治家们 为真正提高人们生活水平而负起责任来。 想象假如我们可以一起合作—— 政府,企业,社会组织,我,你—— 使这个世纪成为社会进步的世纪。 谢谢。 (掌声)