On January 4, 1934, a young man delivered a report to the United States Congress that 80 years on, still shapes the lives of everyone in this room today, still shapes the lives of everyone on this planet. That young man wasn't a politician, he wasn't a businessman, a civil rights activist or a faith leader. He was that most unlikely of heroes, an economist. His name was Simon Kuznets and the report that he delivered was called "National Income, 1929-1932."
Četvrtog januara 1934. jedan mladić je dostavio izveštaj Kongresu SAD koji i posle 80 godina oblikuje živote svih danas ovde prisutnih, kao i živote svih na ovoj planeti. Taj mladić nije bio političar, niti biznismen, ni aktivista za građanska prava, ni verski vođa. Bio je najneupadljiviji od svih junaka, bio je ekonomista. Zvao se Sajmon Kuznets, a izveštaj koji je dao nazvan je "Nacionalni dohodak, 1929-1932".
Now, you might think this is a rather dry and dull report. And you're absolutely right. It's dry as a bone. But this report is the foundation of how, today, we judge the success of countries: what we know best as Gross Domestic Product, GDP.
Pomislićete da je ovo veoma suvoparan i dosadan izveštaj. I potpuno ste u pravu. I suviše je suvoparno. Ali danas je ovaj izveštaj osnov za procenu uspeha zemalja: ono što je poznato kao bruto domaći proizvod. BDP.
GDP has defined and shaped our lives for the last 80 years. And today I want to talk about a different way to measure the success of countries, a different way to define and shape our lives for the next 80 years.
BDP definiše i oblikuje naše živote poslednjih 80 godina. Danas želim da govorim o jednom drugačijem načinu merenja uspeha zemalja, drugačijem načinu merenja i oblikovanja naših života u narednih 80 godina.
But first, we have to understand how GDP came to dominate our lives. Kuznets' report was delivered at a moment of crisis. The U.S. economy was plummeting into the Great Depression and policy makers were struggling to respond. Struggling because they didn't know what was going on. They didn't have data and statistics. So what Kuznet's report gave them was reliable data on what the U.S. economy was producing, updated year by year. And armed with this information, policy makers were, eventually, able to find a way out of the slump. And because Kuznets' invention was found to be so useful, it spread around the world. And now today, every country produces GDP statistics.
Ali prvo moramo razumeti kako je BDP počeo da dominira našim životima. Kuznets je dostavio izveštaj u trenutku krize. Američka ekonomija je strmoglavo padala u veliku ekonomsku krizu, a kreatori politike su se mučili da nađu rešenje. Mučili su se jer nisu znali šta se dešava. Nisu imali podatke i statistiku. Kuznetsov izveštaj im je pružio pouzdane podatke o onome što je američka ekonomija proizvodila, ažuriran iz godine u godinu. Naoružani ovim informacijama, kreatori politike su konačno uspeli da nađu izlaz iz recesije. Pošto se Kuznetsovo otkriće pokazalo korisnim, proširilo se celim svetom. Danas svaka zemlja pruža statistiku o BDP-u.
But, in that first report, Kuznets himself delivered a warning. It's in the introductory chapter. On page seven he says, "The welfare of a nation can, therefore, scarcely be inferred from a measurement of national income as defined above." It's not the greatest sound bite in the world, and it's dressed up in the cautious language of the economist. But his message was clear: GDP is a tool to help us measure economic performance. It's not a measure of our well-being. And it shouldn't be a guide to all decision making.
Ali u tom prvom izveštaju, sam Kuznets upozorava. U uvodnom poglavlju. Na sedmoj strani kaže: "Stoga se o blagostanju naroda teško može šta zaključiti na osnovu merenja nacionalnog dohotka kako je to gore definisano." Ovo nije najprivlačniji odlomak i obavijen je opreznim rečima ekonomista. Ali poruka je jasna: BDP je sredstvo koje nam pomaže u merenju ekonomskog učinka. To nije mera za blagostanje. I ne treba se njim voditi pri donošenju svih odluka.
But we have ignored Kuznets' warning. We live in a world where GDP is the benchmark of success in a global economy. Our politicians boast when GDP goes up. Markets move and trillions of dollars of capital move around the world based on which countries are going up and which countries are going down, all measured in GDP. Our societies have become engines to create more GDP.
Ali ignorisali smo Kuznetsovo upozorenje. Živimo u svetu u kome je BDP standard uspeha u globalnoj ekonomiji. Naši političari se hvale kada BDP poraste. Tržišta se kreću i bilioni dolara kapitala kruže svetom na osnovu porasta i pada određenih zemalja, u merenju BDP-a. Naša društva su postala mašine za stvaranje većeg BDP-a.
But we know that GDP is flawed. It ignores the environment. It counts bombs and prisons as progress. It can't count happiness or community. And it has nothing to say about fairness or justice. Is it any surprise that our world, marching to the drumbeat of GDP, is teetering on the brink of environmental disaster and filled with anger and conflict?
Ali znamo da BDP ima mana. Ignoriše okruženje. Bombe i zatvore računa kao napredak. Ne može da uračuna sreću ili zajednicu. I ne govori ništa o pravdi. Da li iznenađuje da se naš svet, koračajući u ritmu BDP-a, nalazi na ivici ekološke katastrofe i ispunjen je besom i konfliktom?
We need a better way to measure our societies, a measure based on the real things that matter to real people. Do I have enough to eat? Can I read and write? Am I safe? Do I have rights? Do I live in a society where I'm not discriminated against? Is my future and the future of my children prevented from environmental destruction? These are questions that GDP does not and cannot answer.
Potreban nam je bolji način da merimo naša društva, mera koja je zasnovana na realnim stvarima koje su važne realnim ljudima. Da li imam dovoljno da jedem? Da li umem da čitam i pišem? Da li sam bezbedan? Da li imam prava? Da li živim u društvu u kom nisam diskriminisan? Da li je moja i budućnost moje dece zaštićena od ekološkog uništavanja? Ovo su pitanja na koja BDP ne odgovara i ne može da odgovori.
There have, of course, been efforts in the past to move beyond GDP. But I believe that we're living in a moment when we are ready for a measurement revolution. We're ready because we've seen, in the financial crisis of 2008, how our fetish for economic growth led us so far astray. We've seen, in the Arab Spring, how countries like Tunisia were supposedly economic superstars, but they were societies that were seething with discontentment. We're ready, because today we have the technology to gather and analyze data in ways that would have been unimaginable to Kuznets.
Naravno, u prošlosti je bilo pokušaja da se ode korak dalje od BDP-a. Ali mislim da živimo u trenuktu kad smo spremni za mernu revoluciju. Spremni smo, jer smo u ekonomskoj krizi 2008. videli kako nas je opsednutost ekonomskim rastom odvela na pogrešan put. U Arapskom proleću smo videli kako su zemlje kao što je Tunis, navodno bile ekonomske zvezde, ali to su bila društva koja su ključala od nezadovoljstva. Spremni smo, jer danas imamo tehnologiju za skupljanje i analiziranje podataka, na načine koji bi Kuznetsu bili nezamislivi. Danas želim da vam predstavim Indeks društvenog napretka.
Today, I'd like to introduce you to the Social Progress Index. It's a measure of the well-being of society, completely separate from GDP. It's a whole new way of looking at the world. The Social Progress Index begins by defining what it means to be a good society based around three dimensions. The first is, does everyone have the basic needs for survival: food, water, shelter, safety? Secondly, does everyone have access to the building blocks to improve their lives: education, information, health and sustainable environment? And then third, does every individual have access to a chance to pursue their goals and dreams and ambitions free from obstacles? Do they have rights, freedom of choice, freedom from discrimination and access to the the world's most advanced knowledge? Together, these 12 components form the Social Progress framework. And for each of these 12 components, we have indicators to measure how countries are performing. Not indicators of effort or intention, but real achievement. We don't measure how much a country spends on healthcare, we measure the length and quality of people's lives. We don't measure whether governments pass laws against discrimination, we measure whether people experience discrimination.
To je mera dobrostanja društva, potpuno odvojena od BDP-a. To je potpuno novi način gledanja na svet. Indeks društvenog napretka počinje definišući šta znači biti dobro društvo, na osnovu tri dimenzije. Prva: da li svi imaju osnovne životne potrebe: hranu, vodu, skrovište, sigurnost? Drugo: da li svi imaju pristup elementima za unapređenje života: obrazovanju, informacijama, zdravlju i održivom okruženju? I treće: da li svaka osoba ima pristup mogućnostima da ostvaruje svoje ciljeve, snove i ambicije, bez prepreka? Da li ima prava, slobodu izbora, slobodu od diskriminacije, i pristup najnaprednijem svetskom znanju? Zajedno, ovih 12 komponenti oblikuju okvir Društvenog napretka. I za svaku od ovih 12 komponenti imamo indikatore da izmerimo kako se države kotiraju. Ne indikatore truda ili namere, nego stvarnog postignuća. Ne merimo koliko neka zemlja troši na zdravstvo, merimo trajanje i kvalitet života ljudi. Ne merimo da li vlade donose zakone protiv diskriminacije, merimo da li ljudi doživljavaju diskriminaciju.
But what you want to know is who's top, don't you? (Laughter) I knew that, I knew that, I knew that. Okay, I'm going to show you. I'm going to show you on this chart. So here we are, what I've done here is put on the vertical axis social progress. Higher is better. And then, just for comparison, just for fun, on the horizontal axis is GDP per capita. Further to the right is more. So the country in the world with the highest social progress, the number one country on social progress is New Zealand. (Applause) Well done! Never been; must go. (Laughter) The country with the least social progress, I'm sorry to say, is Chad. I've never been; maybe next year. (Laughter) Or maybe the year after.
Ali vi želite da znate ko je na vrhu, zar ne? (Smeh) Znam, znam. Okej, pokazaću vam. Pokazaću vam na ovom grafiku. Dakle, ovde sam na vertikalnu osu postavio društveni napredak. Više je bolje. I kao poređenje, samo radi zabave, na horizontalnoj osi je BDP po glavi stanovnika. Dalje desno je više. Dakle, ona zemlja na svetu koja ostvaruje najviši društveni napredak, prva zemlja po društvenom napretku, je Novi Zeland. (Aplauz) Bravo! Nikad nisam bio, moram da odem. (Smeh) Zemlja sa najnižim društvenim napretkom, žao mi je, to je Čad. Nikad nisam bio, možda dogodine. (Smeh) Ili godinu dana kasnije.
Now, I know what you're thinking. You're thinking, "Aha, but New Zealand has a higher GDP than Chad!" It's a good point, well made. But let me show you two other countries. Here's the United States — considerably richer than New Zealand, but with a lower level of social progress. And then here's Senegal — it's got a higher level of social progress than Chad, but the same level of GDP. So what's going on? Well, look. Let me bring in the rest of the countries of the world, the 132 we've been able to measure, each one represented by a dot. There we go. Lots of dots. Now, obviously I can't do all of them, so a few highlights for you: The highest ranked G7 country is Canada. My country, the United Kingdom, is sort of middling, sort of dull, but who cares — at least we beat the French. (Laughter) And then looking at the emerging economies, top of the BRICS, pleased to say, is Brazil. (Applause) Come on, cheer! Go, Brazil! Beating South Africa, then Russia, then China and then India. Tucked away on the right-hand side, you will see a dot of a country with a lot of GDP but not a huge amount of social progress — that's Kuwait. Just above Brazil is a social progress superpower — that's Costa Rica. It's got a level of social progress the same as some Western European countries, with a much lower GDP.
Znam šta razmišljate. Mislite: "Aha, ali Novi Zeland ima viši BDP od Čada!" Odličan komentar, sasvim na mestu. Dozvolite da vam pokažem još dve zemlje. Evo ih Sjedinjene Države - mnogo bogatije od Novog Zelanda, na nižem nivou društvenog napretka. I potom Senegal - koji je na višem nivou društvenog napretka od Čada, ali ima isti nivo BDP-a. Šta se dešava? Pogledajte. Ubaciću i ostale svetske zemlje, 132 koje smo uspeli da izmerimo, svaka je predstavljena tačkom. Evo ga. Mnogo tačaka. Naravno, ne mogu da predstavim sve, pa evo nekoliko primera: zemlja iz G7 koja je najbolje kotirana je Kanada. Moja zemlja, Ujedinjeno Kraljevstvo, nekako je osrednja, dosadna, ali koga briga - bar smo bolji od Francuza. (Smeh) I gledajući zemlje u razvoju, zadovoljstvo mi je da kažem, na vrhu BRIK grupe, je Brazil. (Aplauz) Hajde, navijajte! Bravo za Brazil! Ispred Južne Afrike, Rusije, potom Kine i onda Indije. Ušuškanu u desnom uglu, videćete jednu tačku zemlje sa visokim BDP-om, ali sa malo društvenog napretka, a to je Kuvajt. Tik iznad Brazila je supersila društvenog napretka, Kosta Rika. Na istom nivou društvenog napretka kao neke zapadnoevropske zemlje, ali sa mnogo nižim BDP-om.
Now, my slide is getting a little cluttered and I'd like to step back a bit. So let me take away these countries, and then pop in the regression line. So this shows the average relationship between GDP and social progress. The first thing to notice, is that there's lots of noise around the trend line. And what this shows, what this empirically demonstrates, is that GDP is not destiny. At every level of GDP per capita, there are opportunities for more social progress, risks of less. The second thing to notice is that for poor countries, the curve is really steep. So what this tells us is that if poor countries can get a little bit of extra GDP, and if they reinvest that in doctors, nurses, water supplies, sanitation, etc., there's a lot of social progress bang for your GDP buck. And that's good news, and that's what we've seen over the last 20, 30 years, with a lot of people lifted out of poverty by economic growth and good policies in poorer countries.
Nastala je gužva na slajdu, pa ću se vratiti malo unazad. Izbaciću ove zemlje, i ubaciću regresionu liniju. Ovo pokazuje prosečnu vezu između BDP-a i društvenog napretka. Prvo što ćete primetiti je da postoji mnogo gužve oko linije trenda. To pokazuje, i empirijski pokazuje, da BDP nije sudbina. Na svakom nivou BDP-a po glavi stanovnika postoje prilike za dodatni društveni napredak, i rizici za manje. Sledeće što se primećuje, je da je linija vrlo strma kod siromašnih zemalja. To nam govori da ako siromašne zemlje dobiju malo dodanog BDP-a, i ako ga ulože u lekare, sestre, zalihe vode, sanitarije i tako dalje, društveni napredak se značajno povećava za svaki uloženi dinar. I to su dobre vesti, to viđamo poslednjih 20, 30 godina, kod mnogo ljudi koji su izašli iz siromaštva uz ekonomski rast i dobru politiku u siromašnijim zemljama.
But go on a bit further up the curve, and then we see it flattening out. Each extra dollar of GDP is buying less and less social progress. And with more and more of the world's population living on this part of the curve, it means GDP is becoming less and less useful as a guide to our development. I'll show you an example of Brazil.
Ali pođite dalje uz liniju, i videćete da postaje ravna. Svaki dodatni dinar BDP-a kupuje manje i manje društvenog napretka. I kako sve više svetske populacije živi na ovom delu krive, to znači da BDP postaje sve manje koristan kao vodič našeg razvoja. Pokazaću vam na primeru Brazila.
Here's Brazil: social progress of about 70 out of 100, GDP per capita about 14,000 dollars a year. And look, Brazil's above the line. Brazil is doing a reasonably good job of turning GDP into social progress. But where does Brazil go next? Let's say that Brazil adopts a bold economic plan to double GDP in the next decade. But that is only half a plan. It's less than half a plan, because where does Brazil want to go on social progress? Brazil, it's possible to increase your growth, increase your GDP, while stagnating or going backwards on social progress. We don't want Brazil to become like Russia. What you really want is for Brazil to get ever more efficient at creating social progress from its GDP, so it becomes more like New Zealand. And what that means is that Brazil needs to prioritize social progress in its development plan and see that it's not just growth alone, it's growth with social progress. And that's what the Social Progress Index does: It reframes the debate about development, not just about GDP alone, but inclusive, sustainable growth that brings real improvements in people's lives. And it's not just about countries.
Evo ga Brazil: društveni napredak je oko 70 od 100, BDP po glavi stanovnika je oko 14,000 dolara godišnje. I vidite, Brazil je iznad linije. Brazil na prilično dobar način pretvara BDP u društveni napredak. Ali kuda Brazil ide? Recimo da Brazil usvoji hrabar ekonomski plan za udvostručavanje BDP-a u sledećoj deceniji. Ali to je samo polovina plana. Čak i manje od polovine, jer kuda Brazil želi da ide na društvenom napretku? Brazil, moguće je da povećate svoj rast, povećate svoj BDP, ali da stagnirate ili nazadujete u društvenom napretku. Ne želimo da Brazil postane kao Rusija. Ono što želite je da Brazil postane efikasniji u pretvaranju BDP-a u društveni napredak da bi postao sličniji Novom Zelandu. A to znači da društveni napredak mora Brazilu da bude prioritet u razvojnom planu, i da ne bude samo rast, nego rast sa društvenim napretkom. I to je ono što Indeks društvenog napretka radi: preformuliše debatu o razvoju, ne samo o BDP-u, nego o inkluzivnom, održivom rastu, koji donosi prava unapređenja u živote ljudi. Ne radi se samo o zemljama.
Earlier this year, with our friends from the Imazon nonprofit here in Brazil, we launched the first subnational Social Progress Index. We did it for the Amazon region. It's an area the size of Europe, 24 million people, one of the most deprived parts of the country. And here are the results, and this is broken down into nearly 800 different municipalities. And with this detailed information about the real quality of life in this part of the country, Imazon and other partners from government, business and civil society can work together to construct a development plan that will help really improve people's lives, while protecting that precious global asset that is the Amazon Rainforest. And this is just the beginning, You can create a Social Progress Index for any state, region, city or municipality. We all know and love TEDx; this is Social Pogress-x. This is a tool for anyone to come and use.
Ranije ove godine, sa prijateljima iz neprofitne organizacije Imazon, ovde u Brazilu, lansirali smo prvi podnacionalni Indeks društvenog napretka. Uradili smo to za region Amazona. To je oblast veličine Evrope, sa 24 miliona ljudi, jedan od najsiromašnijih delova zemlje. I evo rezultata, ovo je rasparčano na skoro 800 različitih opština. Sa ovim detaljnim informacijama o stvarnom kvalitetu života u ovom delu zemlje, Imazon i drugi partneri iz vlade, društvenog i poslovnog sektora mogu zajedno da naprave razvojni plan koji će pomoći da se unaprede životi ljudi, dok se istovremeno štiti to vredno globalno blago, amazonska prašuma. A ovo je samo početak. Indeks društvenog napretka možete napraviti za bilo koju zemlju, region, grad ili opštinu. Svi znamo i volimo TEDx; ovo je Društveni napredak-x. Ovaj alat svako može da koristi.
Contrary to the way we sometimes talk about it, GDP was not handed down from God on tablets of stone. (Laughter) It's a measurement tool invented in the 20th century to address the challenges of the 20th century. In the 21st century, we face new challenges: aging, obesity, climate change, and so on. To face those challenges, we need new tools of measurement, new ways of valuing progress.
Nasuprot uobičajenom mišljenju, BDP nije urezan u kamen i poslat od boga. (Smeh) To je merni instrument izmišljen u 20. veku kako bi se suočio sa izazovima 20. veka. U 21. veku suočeni smo sa novim izazovima: starenjem, gojaznošću, klimatskim promenama, itd. Da bismo se sa njima suočili, potrebni su nam novi merni instrumenti, novi načini vrednovanja napretka.
Imagine if we could measure what nonprofits, charities, volunteers, civil society organizations really contribute to our society. Imagine if businesses competed not just on the basis of their economic contribution, but on their contribution to social progress. Imagine if we could hold politicians to account for really improving people's lives. Imagine if we could work together — government, business, civil society, me, you — and make this century the century of social progress. Thank you. (Applause)
Zamislite kad bismo mogli da merimo stvaran doprinos koji u našem društvu ostvaruju neprofitne i dobrotvorne organizacije, volonteri, organizacije civilnog društva. Zamislite da se firme ne takmiče samo na osnovu ekonomskog doprinosa, nego na osnovu doprinosa društvenom napretku. Zamislite da političari odgovaraju za stvarno unapređenje života ljudi. Zamislite da zajedno radimo - vlade, firme, građansko društvo, ja, vi - i da ovaj vek napravimo vekom društvenog napretka. Hvala vam. (Aplauz)