On January 4, 1934, a young man delivered a report to the United States Congress that 80 years on, still shapes the lives of everyone in this room today, still shapes the lives of everyone on this planet. That young man wasn't a politician, he wasn't a businessman, a civil rights activist or a faith leader. He was that most unlikely of heroes, an economist. His name was Simon Kuznets and the report that he delivered was called "National Income, 1929-1932."
4. siječnja 1934. mladić je podnio izvještaj Kongresu Sjedinjenih Američkih Država koji 80 godina kasnije, i dalje oblikuje živote svih u ovoj sobi, i dalje oblikuje živote svih na ovom planetu. Taj mladić nije bio političar, nije bio poslovni čovjek, aktivist za prava građana ili duhovni vođa. Bio je taj najneočekivaniji heroj, ekonomist. Njegovo ime bilo je Simon Kuznets i izvještaj koji je podnio zvao se "Društveni prihod, 1929.-1932."
Now, you might think this is a rather dry and dull report. And you're absolutely right. It's dry as a bone. But this report is the foundation of how, today, we judge the success of countries: what we know best as Gross Domestic Product, GDP.
Sada, možda mislite kako je ovo suhoparno i dosadno izvješće. I u potpunosti ste u pravu. Suho je kao kost. Ali ovaj izvještaj je osnova toga kako, danas, sudimo uspjeh zemalja: poznato pod nazivom bruto domaći proizvod, BDP.
GDP has defined and shaped our lives for the last 80 years. And today I want to talk about a different way to measure the success of countries, a different way to define and shape our lives for the next 80 years.
BDP je definirao i oblikovao naše živote posljednjih 80 godina. I danas želim pričati o o različitim načinima mjerenja uspjeha zemalja, drugačijeg načina za definiranje i oblikovanje života sljedećih 80 godina.
But first, we have to understand how GDP came to dominate our lives. Kuznets' report was delivered at a moment of crisis. The U.S. economy was plummeting into the Great Depression and policy makers were struggling to respond. Struggling because they didn't know what was going on. They didn't have data and statistics. So what Kuznet's report gave them was reliable data on what the U.S. economy was producing, updated year by year. And armed with this information, policy makers were, eventually, able to find a way out of the slump. And because Kuznets' invention was found to be so useful, it spread around the world. And now today, every country produces GDP statistics.
Ali prvo, moramo razumjeti kako je BDP zavladao našim životima. Kuznetsov izvještaj predan je u trenutku krize. Američka ekonomija je jurila u Veliku depresiju i stvaratelji strategija borili su se da daju odgovor. Borili su se jer nisu znali što se događa. Nisu imali podatke i statistiku. Ono što im je Kuznetsov izvještaj dao bili su pouzdani podatci o tome što američka ekonomija proizvodi, ažurirano iz godine u godinu. I oboružani ovim informacijama, stvaratelji strategija, uspjeli su pronaći izlaz iz krize. I zbog toga što je Kuznetsov izum bio vrlo koristan, proširio se čitavim svijetom. I danas, svaka zemlja izrađuje BDP statistike.
But, in that first report, Kuznets himself delivered a warning. It's in the introductory chapter. On page seven he says, "The welfare of a nation can, therefore, scarcely be inferred from a measurement of national income as defined above." It's not the greatest sound bite in the world, and it's dressed up in the cautious language of the economist. But his message was clear: GDP is a tool to help us measure economic performance. It's not a measure of our well-being. And it shouldn't be a guide to all decision making.
Ali, u prvom izvještaju, sam Kuznets dao je upozorenje. Nalazi se u uvodnom poglavlju. Na sedmoj stranici on kaže, "Dobrobit nacije može se, zbog toga, slabo zaključiti iz mjerenja društvenog prihoda kako je gore definirano." Nije najbolji slogan na svijetu, i prikazan je opreznim jezikom ekonomista. Ali poruka je bila jasna: BDP je bio alat koji nam pomaže mjeriti ekonomski uspjeh. Nije mjera naše dobrobiti. I ne bi smjela biti vodič u donošenju odluka.
But we have ignored Kuznets' warning. We live in a world where GDP is the benchmark of success in a global economy. Our politicians boast when GDP goes up. Markets move and trillions of dollars of capital move around the world based on which countries are going up and which countries are going down, all measured in GDP. Our societies have become engines to create more GDP.
Ali ignorirali smo Kuznetsovo upozorenje. Živimo u svijetu gdje je BDP mjerilo uspjeha u globalnoj ekonomiji. Naši političari hvale se kada BDP ode gore. Tržišta se pokreću i bilijuni dolara kapitala kreću se svijetom ovisno o tome koje zemlje idu gore a koje idu dolje, sve mjereno u BDP-u. Naša društva postala su strojevi za stvaranje BDP-a.
But we know that GDP is flawed. It ignores the environment. It counts bombs and prisons as progress. It can't count happiness or community. And it has nothing to say about fairness or justice. Is it any surprise that our world, marching to the drumbeat of GDP, is teetering on the brink of environmental disaster and filled with anger and conflict?
Ali znamo da je BDP pun mana. Ignorira okoliš. Broji bombe i zatvore kao napredak. Ne može brojati sreću ili zajednicu. I ne govori ništa o poštenju ili pravdi. Je li iznenađenje da naš svijet, koji maršira prema BDP-u balansira na rubu ekološke katastrofe te je pun bijesa i sukoba?
We need a better way to measure our societies, a measure based on the real things that matter to real people. Do I have enough to eat? Can I read and write? Am I safe? Do I have rights? Do I live in a society where I'm not discriminated against? Is my future and the future of my children prevented from environmental destruction? These are questions that GDP does not and cannot answer.
Trebamo bolji način za mjerenje naših društava, mjeru temeljenu na stvarnim stvarima koje su važne stvarnim ljudima. Imam li dovoljno za jelo? Mogu li čitati i pisati? Jesam li siguran? Imam li prava? Živim li u društvu koje me ne diskriminira? Jesu li moja i budućnost moje djece zaštićena od uništavanja okoliša? To su pitanja na koja BDP ne odgovara i ne može odgovoriti.
There have, of course, been efforts in the past to move beyond GDP. But I believe that we're living in a moment when we are ready for a measurement revolution. We're ready because we've seen, in the financial crisis of 2008, how our fetish for economic growth led us so far astray. We've seen, in the Arab Spring, how countries like Tunisia were supposedly economic superstars, but they were societies that were seething with discontentment. We're ready, because today we have the technology to gather and analyze data in ways that would have been unimaginable to Kuznets.
Tu su bili, naravno, pokušaji u prošlosti da se krene dalje od BDP-a. Ali vjerujem da živimo u trenutku kada smo spremni za revoluciju mjerenja. Spremni smo jer smo vidjeli, u financijskoj krizi 2008., da nas je fetiš za ekonomski rast naveo da toliko zastranimo. Vidjeli smo, u Arapskom proljeću, kako zemlje poput Tunisa trebaju biti ekonomske superzvijezde, ali su bili društva koja su bila prepuna nezadovoljstva. Spremni smo, jer danas imamo tehnologiju za prikupljanje i obradu podataka na načine koji su bili nezamislivi Kuznetsu.
Today, I'd like to introduce you to the Social Progress Index. It's a measure of the well-being of society, completely separate from GDP. It's a whole new way of looking at the world. The Social Progress Index begins by defining what it means to be a good society based around three dimensions. The first is, does everyone have the basic needs for survival: food, water, shelter, safety? Secondly, does everyone have access to the building blocks to improve their lives: education, information, health and sustainable environment? And then third, does every individual have access to a chance to pursue their goals and dreams and ambitions free from obstacles? Do they have rights, freedom of choice, freedom from discrimination and access to the the world's most advanced knowledge? Together, these 12 components form the Social Progress framework. And for each of these 12 components, we have indicators to measure how countries are performing. Not indicators of effort or intention, but real achievement. We don't measure how much a country spends on healthcare, we measure the length and quality of people's lives. We don't measure whether governments pass laws against discrimination, we measure whether people experience discrimination.
Danas, bih vam htio predstaviti Indeks Društvenog Napretka. To je mjera dobrobiti društva, potpuno odvojena od BDP-a. Ovo je potpuno nov način gledanja na svijet. Indeks Društvenog Napretka počinje s definiranjem što znači biti dobro društvo bazirano na tri dimenzije. Prva je, imaju li svi osnovno za preživljavanje: hranu, vodu, sklonište, sigurnost? Drugo, imaju li svi pristup temeljima za poboljšanje života: obrazovanje, informacije, zdravstvo i održivi okoliš? I treće, ima li svaki pojedinac pristup prilici da ostvari svoje ciljeve, snove i ambicije bez zapreka? Imaju li prava, slobodu izbora, slobodu od diskriminacije i pristup najnaprednijim znanjima svijeta? Zajedno, ovih 12 komponenti tvore okvir društvenog napretka. I za svaku od ovih 12 komponenti, imamo indikatore pomoću kojih mjerimo koliko su zemlje uspješne. Ne indikatori namjere ili truda, već pravih dosega. Ne mjerimo koliko zemlja troši na zdravstvo, mjerimo duljinu i kvalitetu života ljudi. Ne mjerimo jesu li vlade donijele zakone protiv diskriminacije, mjerimo iskuse li ljudi diskriminaciju.
But what you want to know is who's top, don't you? (Laughter) I knew that, I knew that, I knew that. Okay, I'm going to show you. I'm going to show you on this chart. So here we are, what I've done here is put on the vertical axis social progress. Higher is better. And then, just for comparison, just for fun, on the horizontal axis is GDP per capita. Further to the right is more. So the country in the world with the highest social progress, the number one country on social progress is New Zealand. (Applause) Well done! Never been; must go. (Laughter) The country with the least social progress, I'm sorry to say, is Chad. I've never been; maybe next year. (Laughter) Or maybe the year after.
Ali ono što želite znati je tko je na vrhu, zar ne? (Smijeh) Znao sam to, znao sam to, znao sam to. Dobro, pokazat ću vam. Pokazat ću vam na ovom grafu. Ovdje smo mi, ono što sam učinio ovdje je da sam na vertikalnu os stavio društveni napredak. Više je bolje. I onda, samo za usporedbu, zabave radi, na horizontalnu os sam stavio BDP po stanovniku. Na desnu stranu je više. Dakle zemlja na svijetu s najvećim društvenim napretkom, prva zemlja po društvenom napretku je Novi Zeland. (Pljesak) Svaka čast! Nisam bio, moram otići. (Smijeh) Zemlja s najmanjim društvenim napretkom, žao mi je, to je Čad. Nisam bio, možda dogodine. (Smijeh) Ili godinu nakon.
Now, I know what you're thinking. You're thinking, "Aha, but New Zealand has a higher GDP than Chad!" It's a good point, well made. But let me show you two other countries. Here's the United States — considerably richer than New Zealand, but with a lower level of social progress. And then here's Senegal — it's got a higher level of social progress than Chad, but the same level of GDP. So what's going on? Well, look. Let me bring in the rest of the countries of the world, the 132 we've been able to measure, each one represented by a dot. There we go. Lots of dots. Now, obviously I can't do all of them, so a few highlights for you: The highest ranked G7 country is Canada. My country, the United Kingdom, is sort of middling, sort of dull, but who cares — at least we beat the French. (Laughter) And then looking at the emerging economies, top of the BRICS, pleased to say, is Brazil. (Applause) Come on, cheer! Go, Brazil! Beating South Africa, then Russia, then China and then India. Tucked away on the right-hand side, you will see a dot of a country with a lot of GDP but not a huge amount of social progress — that's Kuwait. Just above Brazil is a social progress superpower — that's Costa Rica. It's got a level of social progress the same as some Western European countries, with a much lower GDP.
Sad, znam što mislite. Mislite, "Aha, Novi Zeland ima veći BDP nego Čad!" To je dobar zaključak, dobro izvučen. Ali dozvolite da vam pokažem dvije druge zemlje. Ovdje su Sjedinjene Američke Države -- bogatije od Novog Zelanda, ali s nižom razinom društvenog napretka. A onda je tu Senegal -- ima veću razinu društvenog napretka od Čada, ali istu razinu BDP-a. Što se događa? Pa pogledajte. Dozvolite da uvedem ostale zemlje svijeta, 132 koje smo uspjeli izmjeriti, svaku predstavljenu točkom. Evo ga. Puno točaka. Sad, očito ne mogu proći kroz sve njih, ali par odabranih: Najviše rangirana zemlja G7 je Kanada. Moja zemlja, Ujedinjeno Kraljevstvo, nekako stagnira, dosadna je, ali koga briga -- bar smo pobijedili Francuze. (Smijeh) (Pljesak) A gledajući rastuće ekonomije, na vrhu BRICS zemalja je, sa zadovoljstvom mogu reći, Brazil. (Pljesak) Hajde, navijajte! Idemo, Brazil! Premašivši Južnu Afriku, pa Rusiju, potom Kinu i Indiju. Smještene na desnoj strani, vidite točku zemlje s puno BDP-a ali ne velikom količinom društvenog napretka -- to je Kuvajt. Odmah iznad Brazila velesila društvenog napretka -- Kostarika. Ima razinu društvenog napretka kao neke zapadnoeuropske zemlje, s puno nižim BDP-om.
Now, my slide is getting a little cluttered and I'd like to step back a bit. So let me take away these countries, and then pop in the regression line. So this shows the average relationship between GDP and social progress. The first thing to notice, is that there's lots of noise around the trend line. And what this shows, what this empirically demonstrates, is that GDP is not destiny. At every level of GDP per capita, there are opportunities for more social progress, risks of less. The second thing to notice is that for poor countries, the curve is really steep. So what this tells us is that if poor countries can get a little bit of extra GDP, and if they reinvest that in doctors, nurses, water supplies, sanitation, etc., there's a lot of social progress bang for your GDP buck. And that's good news, and that's what we've seen over the last 20, 30 years, with a lot of people lifted out of poverty by economic growth and good policies in poorer countries.
Sad, moj slajd je pomalo zakrčen i volio bih otići korak unatrag. Maknimo ove zemlje, i ubacimo crtu regresije. Ovo pokazuje povezanost između BDP-a i društvenog napretka. Prva stvar koju primjetite, postoji puno buke oko linije kretanja. I to što pokazuje, što empirički demonstrira, je da BDP nije sudbina. Na svakoj razini BDP-a po glavi stanovnika, postoje prilike za više društvenog napretka, rizici za manje. Druga stvar koju možete primjetiti je kako siromašne zemlje, imaju vrlo strmu krivulju. To nam govori da ako siromašne zemlje mogu proizvesti malo više BDP-a, i ako to reinvestiraju u doktore, sestre, zalihe vode, sanitaciju, itd., postoji puno društvenog napretka za vaš BDP novac. I to su dobre vijesti, i to je ono što smo vidjeli posljednjih 20, 30 godina, s puno ljudi izdignutih iz siromaštva ekonomskim rastom i dobrim politikama u siromašnijim zemljama.
But go on a bit further up the curve, and then we see it flattening out. Each extra dollar of GDP is buying less and less social progress. And with more and more of the world's population living on this part of the curve, it means GDP is becoming less and less useful as a guide to our development. I'll show you an example of Brazil.
Ali odite malo više na krivulji, i vidimo da se izravnava. Svaki dodatni dolar BDP-a kupuje manje i manje društvenog napretka. Kako sve više i više svjetske populacije živi na ovom dijelu krivulje, to znači da BDP postaje sve manje i manje koristan kao vodilja u našem razvoju. Pokazat ću vam primjer Brazila.
Here's Brazil: social progress of about 70 out of 100, GDP per capita about 14,000 dollars a year. And look, Brazil's above the line. Brazil is doing a reasonably good job of turning GDP into social progress. But where does Brazil go next? Let's say that Brazil adopts a bold economic plan to double GDP in the next decade. But that is only half a plan. It's less than half a plan, because where does Brazil want to go on social progress? Brazil, it's possible to increase your growth, increase your GDP, while stagnating or going backwards on social progress. We don't want Brazil to become like Russia. What you really want is for Brazil to get ever more efficient at creating social progress from its GDP, so it becomes more like New Zealand. And what that means is that Brazil needs to prioritize social progress in its development plan and see that it's not just growth alone, it's growth with social progress. And that's what the Social Progress Index does: It reframes the debate about development, not just about GDP alone, but inclusive, sustainable growth that brings real improvements in people's lives. And it's not just about countries.
Ovdje je Brazil: društveni napredak od 70 do 100, BDP po glavi stanovnika otprilike 14.000 dolara godišnje. I pogledajte, Brazil je iznad crte. Brazil radi relativno dobar posao u pretvaranju BDP-a u društveni napredak. Ali gdje će dalje ići Brazil? Recimo da Brazil prihvati smion ekonomski plan da udvostruči BDP u sljedećem desetljeću. Ali to je samo pola plana. To je manje od pola plana, jer gdje Brazil želi ići s društvenim napretkom? Brazil, moguće je povećati rast, povećati BDP, dok stagnirate ili se vraćate unatrag s društvenim napretkom. Ne želimo da Brazil postane kao Rusija. Ono što želite je da Brazil postane učinkovitiji u stvaranju društvenog napretka iz BDP-a, kako bi postao više poput Novog Zelanda. I što to znači je da Brazil mora prioritizirati društveni napredak u svojim planovima razvoja i uvidjeti da to nije samo rast, već rast s društvenim napretkom. I to je ono što Indeks Društvenog Napretka čini: preoblikuje raspravu o razvoju, ne radi se samo o BDP-u, već o uključivom, održivom razvoju koji donosi stvarna poboljšanja u ljudske živote. Ne radi se samo o zemljama.
Earlier this year, with our friends from the Imazon nonprofit here in Brazil, we launched the first subnational Social Progress Index. We did it for the Amazon region. It's an area the size of Europe, 24 million people, one of the most deprived parts of the country. And here are the results, and this is broken down into nearly 800 different municipalities. And with this detailed information about the real quality of life in this part of the country, Imazon and other partners from government, business and civil society can work together to construct a development plan that will help really improve people's lives, while protecting that precious global asset that is the Amazon Rainforest. And this is just the beginning, You can create a Social Progress Index for any state, region, city or municipality. We all know and love TEDx; this is Social Pogress-x. This is a tool for anyone to come and use.
Ranije ove godine, s našim prijateljima iz Imazona, neprofitne organizacije ovdje, u Brazilu, lansirali smo prvi subnacionalni Indeks Društvenog Napretka. Učinili smo to za regiju Amazone. To je područje veličine Europe, 24 milijuna ljudi, jedan od najuskraćenijih dijelova zemlje. I ovdje su rezultati, razloženi na 800 općina. I s ovim detaljnim informacijama o stvarnoj kvaliteti života u ovom dijelu zemlje, Imazon i drugi partneri iz vlade, privrede i društva mogu raditi skupa kako bi stvorili plan razvoja koji će pomoći poboljšati ljudske živote dok čuva dragocjenu globalnu imovinu koja je Amazonska prašuma. I ovo je tek početak. Možete stvoriti Indeks Društvenog Napretka za bilo koju državu, regiju, grad ili općinu. Svi znamo i volimo TEDx; Ovo je Društveni Napredak-x. Ovo je alat koji svatko može koristiti.
Contrary to the way we sometimes talk about it, GDP was not handed down from God on tablets of stone. (Laughter) It's a measurement tool invented in the 20th century to address the challenges of the 20th century. In the 21st century, we face new challenges: aging, obesity, climate change, and so on. To face those challenges, we need new tools of measurement, new ways of valuing progress.
Suprotno onome kako nekad o tome pričamo, BDP nije dan od boga na kamenim pločama. (Smijeh) To je alat za mjerenje izmišljen u 20. stoljeću za bavljenje problemima 20. stoljeća. U 21. stoljeću, suočeni smo s novim izazovima: starenje, debljina, klimatske promjene, i tako dalje. Kako bi se suočili s tim izazovima, trebamo nove alate za mjerenje, nove načine vrednovanja napretka.
Imagine if we could measure what nonprofits, charities, volunteers, civil society organizations really contribute to our society. Imagine if businesses competed not just on the basis of their economic contribution, but on their contribution to social progress. Imagine if we could hold politicians to account for really improving people's lives. Imagine if we could work together — government, business, civil society, me, you — and make this century the century of social progress. Thank you. (Applause)
Zamislite da možemo mjeriti što neprofitne udruge, humanitarne udruge, volonteri, društvene organizacije zaista doprinose našem društvu. Zamislite da se poduzeća natječu ne samo na osnovi ekonomskog doprinosa, već svog doprinosa društvenom napretku. Zamislite ako bismo političare mogli držati odgovornima za stvarno poboljšanje ljudskih života. Zamislite da možemo raditi skupa — vlade, poduzeća, društvo, vi, ja — i napraviti ovo stoljeće stoljećem društvenog napretka. Hvala vam. (Pljesak)