In 2015, the leaders of the world made a big promise. A promise that over the next 15 years, the lives of billions of people are going to get better with no one left behind. That promise is the Sustainable Development Goals -- the SDGs. We're now three years in; a fifth of the way into the journey. The clock is ticking. If we offtrack now, it's going to get harder and harder to hit those goals. So what I want to do for you today is give you a snapshot on where we are today, some projections on where we're heading and some ideas on things we might need to do differently.
2015 年,世界領袖們 做出了一個大承諾。 這個承諾就是,在接下來十五年, 數十億人的生活會變得更好, 沒有人會被丟下。 那個承諾,就是永續發展目標—— 縮寫 SDGs。 現在已經過了三年, 走過了整個旅程的五分之一。 時間不斷流逝。 如果我們現在就偏離軌道, 要達成目標會變得越來越難。 所以,今天我想要做的, 是讓各位能約略了解 今天我們走到哪裡了, 對未來我們會朝哪裡 前進做一些預測, 也思考一下有哪些地方, 我們需要用不同的方式來做。
Now, the SDGs are of course spectacularly complicated. I would expect nothing less from the United Nations.
當然,永續發展目標是非常複雜的。 很符合我對聯合國的期望。
(Laughter)
(笑聲)要多少個目標?
How many goals? Maybe something tried and tested, like three, seven or 10. No, let's pick a prime number higher than 10. Seventeen goals. I congratulate those of you who've memorized them already. For the rest of us, here they are.
也許有嘗試過且有測試過的, 比如,三個、七個,或十個。 不,咱們挑個比十大的質數吧。 十七個目標。 如果你已經把那些目標 都記下來了,我要恭喜你。 至於其他人,目標在這裡。
Seventeen goals ranging from ending poverty to inclusive cities to sustainable fisheries; all a comprehensive plan for the future of our world. But sadly, a plan without the data to measure it. So how are we going to track progress? Well, I'm going to use today the Social Progress Index. It's a measure of the quality of life of countries, ranging from the basic needs of survival -- food, water, shelter, safety -- through to the foundations of well-being -- education, information, health and the environment -- and opportunity -- rights, freedom of choice, inclusiveness and access to higher education.
十七個目標,從終結貧困, 到包容城市,到永續漁業; 都是為了我們世界的未來 所做的全面計畫。 但,感傷的是,沒有資料 可以測量這個計畫。 所以,我們要如何追蹤進展? 嗯,今天,我要用的 是社會進步指數。 它是針對國家生活品質 所做的一種測量值, 範圍從基本的生存需求—— 食物、水、庇護所、安全—— 一直到幸福的基礎—— 教育、資訊、健康,及環境—— 及機會——權利、做選擇的自由、 包容,及取得高等教育的途徑。
Now, the Social Progress Index doesn't look like the SDGs, but fundamentally, it's measuring the same concepts, and the Social Progress Index has the advantage that we have the data. We have 51 indicators drawn from trusted sources to measure these concepts. And also, what we can do because it's an index, is add together all those indicators to give us an aggregate score about how we're performing against the total package of the SDGs. Now, one caveat. The Social Progress Index is a measure of quality of life. We're not looking at whether this can be achieved within the planet's environmental limits. You will need other tools to do that.
社會進步指數看起來 並不像永續發展目標, 但,根本上, 它是在測量同樣的概念, 而社會進步指數有一項優勢, 就是我們有數據。 我們有 51 項指標, 都來自可信任的來源, 可用來測量這些概念。 此外,因為它是一個指數, 我們還能把所有這些指標加起來, 得到一個合計的分數, 代表我們對於整套 永續發展目標的表現。 有件事要注意。 社會進步指數是 生活品質的測量值。 我們在看的並不是在地球的 環境限制之內是否能達成它。 需要其他工具才能做到這一點。
So how are we doing on the SDGs? Well, I'm going to put the SDGs on a scale of zero to 100. And zero is the absolute worst score on each of those 51 indicators: absolute social progress, zero. And then 100 is the minimum standard required to achieve those SDGs. A hundred is where we want to get to by 2030. So, where did we start on this journey? Fortunately, not at zero. In 2015, the world score against the SDGs was 69.1. Some way on the way there but quite a long way to go.
所以,在永續發展目標上, 我們做得如何? 我要把永續發展目標放到 零到一百的評分尺度上。 零分表示這所有 51 個 指標最糟糕的分數: 絕對的社會進展,零分。 一百分是要達到永續發展 目標的最低標準。 我們希望在 2030 年能達到一百分。 所以,我們在這趟旅程的 起始點在哪裡? 幸運的是,並非從零分開始。 世界的永續發展目標 在 2015 年的分數是 69.1 分。 已經在朝目標前進, 但還有很長的路要走。
Now let me also emphasize that this world forecast, which is based on data from 180 countries, is population weighted. So China has more weight in than Comoros; India has more weight in than Iceland. But we could unpack this and see how the countries are doing. And the country today that is closest to achieving the SDGs is Denmark. And the country with the furthest to go is Central African Republic. And everyone else is somewhere in between. So the challenge for the SDGs is to try and sweep all these dots across to the right, to 100 by 2030. Can we get there? Well, with the Social Progress Index, we've got some time series data. So we have some idea of the trend that the countries are on, on which we can build some projections.
我也得要強調一下, 這是世界預測, 它的根據是 180 個國家的資料, 以人口數做加權。 所以,中國的權重比葛摩還要高; 印度的權重比冰島還要高。 但,我們能將它拆開來, 看國家的表現。 現今,最接近達成目標的國家 是丹麥。 還有最長的路要走的 國家是中非共和國。 其他的國家都在它們之間。 所以,永續發展目標的挑戰 就是要試著在 2030 年 把所有這些資料點都掃到 最右邊一百分的地方。 我們能做到嗎? 針對社會進步指數, 我們有一些時間數列的資料。 所以,我們能多少 了解一點國家的趨勢, 我們可以再利用趨勢來做預測。
So let's have a look. Let's start with our top-performing country, Denmark. And yes, I'm pleased to say that Denmark is forecast to achieve the SDGs by 2030. Maybe not surprising, but I'll take a win. Let's look at some of the other richer countries of the world -- the G7. And we find that Germany and Japan will get there or thereabouts. But Canada, France, the UK and Italy are all going to fall short. And the United States? Quite some way back. Now, this is sort of worrying news. But these are the richest countries in the world, not the most populous. So let's take a look now at the biggest countries in the world, the ones that will most affect whether or not we achieve the SDGs.
所以,咱們來看看吧。 咱們從表現最好的國家丹麥開始。 是的,我很高興能夠說,預測丹麥 能在 2030 年達成永續發展目標。 也許不讓人意外, 但也是一場勝仗。 咱們來看看世界上其他較富有的 國家——世界七大工業國家。 我們發現,德國和日本 會達到目標,或很接近。 但加拿大、法國、英國, 和義大利都沒辦法。 美國呢? 還要再差一點。 這是蠻讓人擔心的消息。 但,這些是世界上最富有的國家, 不是最多人口的國家。 所以,現在咱們來看看 世界上最大的國家, 最會影響到我們是否能達成 永續發展目標的國家。
And here they are -- countries in the world with a population of higher than 100 million, ranging from China to Ethiopia. Obviously, the US and Japan would be in that list, but we've looked at them already. So here we are. The biggest countries in the world; the dealbreakers for the SDGs. And the country that's going to make most progress towards the SDGs is Mexico. Mexico is going to get to about 87, so just shy of where the US is going to get but quite some way off our SDG target. Russia comes next. Then China and Indonesia. Then Brazil -- might've expected Brazil to do a bit better. Philippines, and then a step down to India, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Nigeria, and then Ethiopia. So none of these countries are going to hit the SDGs. And we can then take these numbers in all the countries of the world to give ourselves a world forecast on achieving that total package of the SDGs. So remember, in 2015 we started at 69.1. I'm pleased to say that over the last three years, we have made some progress. In 2018, we've hit 70.5, and if we project that rate of progress forward to 2030, that's going to get us to 75.2, which is obviously a long way short of our target. Indeed, on current trends, we won't hit the 2030 targets until 2094. Now, I don't know about you, but I certainly don't want to wait that long.
就是這些國家——世界上 人口超過一億人的國家, 範圍從中國到衣索比亞。 很顯然,美國和日本都會在名單上, 但我們已經看過它們了。 所以,來了。世界上最大的國家: 能否達成永續發展目標的關鍵。 將會在永續發展目標上 有最大進展的國家 是墨西哥。 墨西哥會達到大約 87 分, 只比美國會達到的分數差一點, 但離我們的永續發展目標還相當遠。 下一個是俄國。 接著是中國和印尼。 然後是巴西——本來預期 巴西會比這好一點的。 菲律賓, 接著下面是印度、孟加拉共和國、 巴基斯坦、奈及利亞, 接著是衣索比亞。 這些國家通通不會 達成永續發展目標。 接著,我們可以拿全世界 所有國家的這些數字 來做一個世界預測, 預測永續發展目標的整體達成度。 別忘了,在 2015 年, 我們是從 69.1 分開始的。 我很高興能夠說,在過去三年間, 我們有一些進展。 2018 年,我們達到了 70.5 分, 如果我們把這樣的進展率 推算到 2030 年, 我們可以達到 75.2 分, 很顯然,離我們的目標還很遠。 的確,依目前的趨勢, 我們要到 2094 年才能 達到目標,不是 2030 年。 我不知道你們怎麼樣, 但我是絕對不想等那麼久。
So what can we do about this? Well, the first thing to do is we've got to call out the rich countries. Here are the countries closest to the SDGs, with the greatest resources, and they're falling short. Maybe they think that this is like the Old World where goals for the UN are just for poor countries and not for them. Well, you're wrong. The SDGs are for every country, and it's shameful that these wealthy countries are falling short. Every country needs a plan to implement the SDGs and deliver them for their citizens. G7, other rich countries -- get your act together.
所以,我們能怎麼辦? 嗯,第一件事, 我們得召集富有國家。 它們是最接近永續發展目標的國家, 且最有資源,卻又做不到目標。 也許,它們認為這就像是 舊世界(東半球), 聯合國的目標只是為 貧窮國家設定的,不是它們。 嗯,你們錯了。永續發展 目標是給每個國家的, 這些富有的國家沒達到 目標實在很可恥。 每個國家都需要一個計畫 來導入永續發展目標, 並為其公民實現這些目標。 七大工業國家,其他富有國家—— 振作起來好好做。
The second thing we can do is look a bit further into the data and see where there are opportunities to accelerate progress or there are negative trends that we can reverse. So I'm going to take you into three areas. One where we're doing quite well, one where we really should be doing better and another where we've got some real problems.
我們能做的第二件事, 就是在看資料時更深入一點, 看看哪裡有機會可以讓進展更快, 或是哪裡有我們可以逆轉的負面趨勢。 所以,我要帶各位進入三個領域。 其中一個,我們做得很好, 其中一個,我們應該要能做更好, 還有一個,我們真的 有些問題要解決。
Let's start with the good news, and I want to talk about what we call nutrition and basic medical care. This covers SDG 2 on no hunger and the basic elements of SDG 3 on health, so maternal and child mortality, infectious diseases, etc ... This is an area where most of the rich world has hit the SDGs. And we also find, looking at our big countries, that the most advanced have got pretty close. Here are our 11 big countries, and if you look at the top, Brazil and Russia are pretty close to the SDG target. But at the bottom -- Ethiopia, Pakistan -- a long way to go. That's where we are in 2018. What's our trajectory? On the current trajectory, how far are we going to get by 2030? Well, let's have a look. Well, what we see is a lot of progress. See Bangladesh in the middle. If Bangladesh maintains its current rate of progress, it could get very close to that SDG target. And Ethiopia at the bottom is making a huge amount of progress at the moment. If that can be maintained, Ethiopia could get a long way. We add this all up for all the countries of the world and our projection is a score of 94.5 by 2030. And if countries like the Philippines, which have grown more slowly, could accelerate progress, then we could get a lot closer.
咱們先從好消息開始, 我想要談的,是我們所謂的 營養和基本醫療照護。 這就包含了關於終止飢餓的 永續發展目標二, 及關於健康的目標三 底下的基本元素, 母親和孩童的死亡率, 感染性疾病…… 在這個領域中,大部分的 富有國家都達到了永續發展目標。 從這些國家當中,我們也發現, 最先進的國家最靠近目標。 這是我們的前十一大國家, 請看看頂端,巴西和俄國 都很靠近永續發展目標。 但在底部——衣索比亞、 巴基斯坦——還有很長的路要走。 這是我們 2018 年的狀況。 我們的軌道是什麼? 若依目前的軌道, 到 2030 年,我們能走多遠? 咱們來看看。 我們看到的是許多進展。 中間的是孟加拉共和國。 如果孟加拉共和國 維持目前的進展, 它可能會非常接近永續發展目標。 而衣索比亞在底下, 目前它的進展相當大, 如果能維持下去, 衣索比亞可以走得很遠。 我們把全世界所有 國家的數字都加起來, 我們預測, 2030 年的分數會是 94.5 分。 如果像菲律賓這類成長比較慢的國家 能夠加速進展, 那麼我們就能離目標更近。
So there are reasons to be optimistic about SDGs 2 and 3. But there's another very basic area of the SDGs where we're doing less well, which is SDG 6, on water and sanitation. Again, it's an SDG where most of the rich countries have already achieved the targets. And again, for our big countries -- our big 11 emerging countries, we see that some of the countries, like Russia and Mexico, are very close to the target, but Nigeria and other countries are a very long way back. So how are we doing on this target? What progress are we going to make over the next 12 years based on the current direction of travel? Well, here we go ... and yes, there is some progress. Our top four countries are all hitting the SDG targets -- some are moving forward quite quickly. But it's not enough to really move us forward significantly. What we see is that for the world as a whole, we're forecasting a score of around 85, 86 by 2030 -- not fast enough.
所以,對永續發展目標二 和三抱持樂觀是合理的。 但有另一個永續發展目標的基本領域, 我們就沒有做得很好, 那就是關於水和衛生的 永續發展目標六。 同樣的,這也是大部分富有國家 已經達成的永續發展目標。 且,同樣的,大國—— 我們的十一個新興大國, 我們可以發現,當中有些國家, 如俄國和墨西哥, 都非常接近目標, 但奈及利亞和其他國家 則落後非常多。 所以,在這個目標上, 我們做得如何? 根據目前的行進方向, 在接下來十二年, 我們會有什麼進展? 嗯,來看吧…… 是的,有一些進展。 排名前四的國家達到了 永續發展目標—— 有些國家向前進的速度非常快。 但這樣還不足夠 讓我們有顯著的進展。 我們可以看到,就整個世界來說, 我們預測 2030 年的分數 會在 85 或 86 分—— 不夠快。
Now, obviously this is not good news, but I think what this data also shows is that we could be doing a lot better. Water and sanitation is a solved problem. It's about scaling that solution everywhere. So if we could accelerate progress in some of those countries who are improving more slowly -- Nigeria, the Philippines, etc. -- then we could get a lot closer to the goal. Indeed, I think SDG 6 is probably the biggest opportunity of all the SDGs for a step change.
很顯然,這不是好消息, 但我認為這些資料也意味著 我們還可以做得更好許多。 水和衛生的問題已經解決。 重點是要把解決方案的 規模做大,擴展到各地。 所以,如果我們能幫一些 改善緩慢的國家加速進展—— 奈及利亞、菲律賓等等—— 那麼我們就可以更接近目標許多。 的確,我認為在所有永續發展目標中, 目標六可能是做到 步伐調整的最大機會。
So that's an area we could do better. Let's look finally at an area where we are struggling, which is what we call personal rights and inclusiveness. This is covering concepts across a range of SDGs. SDG 1 on poverty, SDG 5 on gender equality, SDG 10 on inequality, SDG 11 on inclusive cities and SDG 16 on peace and justice. So across those SDGs there are themes around rights and inclusiveness, and those may seem less immediate or pressing than things like hunger and disease, but rights and inclusion are critical to an agenda of no one left behind. So how are we doing on those issues? Let's start off with personal rights. What I'm going to do first is show you our big countries in 2015. So here they are, and I've put the USA and Japan back in, so it's our 13 biggest countries in the world. And we see a wide range of scores. The United States at the top with Japan hitting the goals; China a long way behind. So what's been our direction of travel on the rights agenda over the last three years? Let's have a look. Well, what we see is actually pretty ugly. The majority of the countries are standing still or moving backwards, and big countries like Brazil, India, China, Bangladesh have all seen significant declines. This is worrying.
這個領域,我們可以做得更好。 咱們最後來看看一個 讓我們很掙扎的領域, 就是我們所謂的個人權利和包容。 這領域包含了永續發展 目標的不少概念。 關於貧窮的永續發展目標一、 關於性別平等的目標五、 關於不平等的目標十、 關於包容城市的目標十一, 及關於和平與正義的目標十六。 在上述那些永續發展目標中, 都有關於權利和包容的主題, 和飢餓及疾病相比,它們可能 沒有那麼急切或迫切, 但如果要做到不丟下任何人, 權利和包容就很重要。 所以,我們該怎麼處理這些議題? 咱們從個人權利談起。 我要先讓各位看看 2015 年的大國。 這裏,我把美國和日本又重新放進來, 所以這些是世界上 最大的十三個國家。 我們看到的分數差距很大。 最上頭的美國和日本達到目標; 中國落後很多。 所以,在過去三年,在權利方面, 我們的進展方向是什麼? 咱們來看看。 嗯,我們所看到的其實十分難看。 大多數國家都沒有改變或開倒車, 像是巴西、印度、中國、 孟加拉共和國這些大國 都有明顯的下降。 這很讓人擔心。
Let's have a look now at inclusiveness. And inclusiveness is looking at things like violence and discrimination against minorities, gender equity, LGBT inclusion, etc... And as a result, we see that the scores for our big countries are generally lower. Every country, rich and poor alike, is struggling with building an inclusive society. But what's our direction of travel? Are we building more inclusive countries? Let's have a look -- progress to 2018. And again we see the world moving backwards: most countries static, a lot of countries going backwards -- Bangladesh moving backwards -- but also, two of the countries that were leading -- Brazil and the United States -- have gone backwards significantly over the last three years.
現在來看看包容。 包容要看的項目包括 針對少數族群的暴力和歧視、 性別平等、LGBT 包容性等等。 因此,我們可以看見, 一般來說,大國的分數都比較低。 每個國家,不論富有或貧窮, 在建立包容社會上,都非常掙扎。 但我們的方向是什麼? 我們在建立比較有包容性的國家嗎? 咱們來看看——到 2018 年的進展。 同樣的,我們看見 世界正在開倒車: 大部分的國家在原地踏步, 許多國家在開倒車—— 孟加拉共和國在開倒車—— 但,當中有兩個國家在領頭—— 巴西和美國—— 在過去三年間 開倒車的情況最顯著。
Let's sum this up now for the world as a whole. And what we see on personal rights for the whole world is we're forecasting actually a decline in the score on personal rights to about 60, and then this decline in the score of inclusiveness to about 42. Now, obviously these things can change quite quickly with rights and with changes in law, changes in attitudes, but we have to accept that on current trends, this is probably the most worrying aspect of the SDGs. How I've depressed you ...
現在,咱們針對全世界來做個總結。 就全世界的個人權利來說, 我們看到的是 我們預測個人權利的分數會下降 到大約 60 分, 接著,包容性的分數 則是下降到約 42 分。 很顯然,隨著權利, 隨著法律的改變、態度的改變, 這些都有可能很快就跟著改變, 但我們得要接受, 依照目前的趨勢, 這可能是永續發展目標的 各面向中最讓人擔心的一個了。 我讓大家多麼失望啊……(笑聲)
(Laughter)
I hope not because I think what we do see is that progress is happening in a lot of places and there are opportunities for accelerating progress. We are living in a world that is tantalizingly close to ensuring that no one need die of hunger or malaria or diarrhea. If we can focus our efforts, mobilize resources, galvanize the political will, that step change is possible.
我希望沒有, 因為我認為我們看見的是 在許多地方都看得到進展, 且有機會可以加速進展。 我們現在居住的世界,非常接近 可以做到確保沒有人會因為 飢餓、瘧疾,或腹瀉而死。 如果我們能把我們的 努力聚焦、動用資源、 刺激政治意願, 那麼調整步伐是可能的。
But in focusing on those really basic, solvable SDGs, we mustn't forget the whole package. The goals are an unwieldy set of indicators, goals and targets, but they also include the challenges our world faces. The fact that the SDGs are focusing attention on the fact that we face a crisis in personal rights and inclusiveness is a positive. If we forget that, if we choose to double down on the SDGs that we can solve, if we go for SDG à la carte and pick the most easy SDGs, then we will have missed the point of the SDGs, we will miss the goals and we will have failed on the promise of the SDGs.
但當我們聚焦在那些非常基本、 可解決的永續發展目標上時, 我們也不能忘記整套目標。 這些目標是非常大的一組 指標、目標,和目的, 但它們也包括了我們的 世界在面臨的挑戰。 永續發展目標的注意力是集中在 我們面臨個人權利 和包容性的危機上, 這是好事。 如果我們忘了這點, 如果我們選擇在我們能解決的 永續發展目標上加倍下注, 如果我們把各項永續發展目標拆開來, 挑選最容易的目標, 那我們就搞錯了永續發展目標的重點, 也將會錯失目標, 無法完成對於永續發展目標的承諾。
Thank you.
謝謝。
(Applause)
(掌聲)