Do you think the world is going to be a better place next year? In the next decade? Can we end hunger, achieve gender equality, halt climate change, all in the next 15 years?
Da li smatrate da će svet dogodine biti bolje mesto? U narednoj deceniji? Možemo li da okončamo glad, postignemo rodnu jednakost, zaustavimo klimatske promene, sve ovo u narednih 15 godina?
Well, according to the governments of the world, yes we can. In the last few days, the leaders of the world, meeting at the UN in New York, agreed a new set of Global Goals for the development of the world to 2030. And here they are: these goals are the product of a massive consultation exercise. The Global Goals are who we, humanity, want to be.
Pa, prema mišljenju vlada sveta, možemo. Proteklih nekoliko dana, svetske vođe na sastanku u UN u Njujorku, dogovorili su novi paket Globalnih ciljeva za svetski razvoj do 2030. Evo tih ciljeva: ovi ciljevi su proizvod obimnih konsultantskih vežbi. Globalni ciljevi su ono što bi mi, čovečanstvo, želeli da budemo.
Now that's the plan, but can we get there? Can this vision for a better world really be achieved? Well, I'm here today because we've run the numbers, and the answer, shockingly, is that maybe we actually can. But not with business as usual.
Pa, to je plan, ali možemo li da ga ostvarimo? Može li se ova vizija boljeg sveta zaista ostvariti? Pa, ovde sam danas jer smo proverili neke brojke i odgovor je, na iznenađenje svih, da možda zapravo i možemo. Ali ne radeći po običaju.
Now, the idea that the world is going to get a better place may seem a little fanciful. Watch the news every day and the world seems to be going backwards, not forwards. And let's be frank: it's pretty easy to be skeptical about grand announcements coming out of the UN.
Sad, misao da će svet postati bolje mesto može se činiti malčice nestvarnom. Posmatrajte vesti svaki dan i čini se da svet ide unazad, ne napred. I budimo iskreni: prilično je lako biti skeptičan prema velikim najavama koje stižu iz UN-a.
But please, I invite you to suspend your disbelief for just a moment. Because back in 2001, the UN agreed another set of goals, the Millennium Development Goals. And the flagship target there was to halve the proportion of people living in poverty by 2015. The target was to take from a baseline of 1990, when 36 percent of the world's population lived in poverty, to get to 18 percent poverty this year.
Ali, molim vas, pozivam vas da zadržite nevericu samo za momenat. Jer je 2001. UN dogovorio drugi paket ciljeva, Milenijumske ciljeve razvoja. A glavna meta je bila prepolovljanje broja ljudi koji žive u siromaštvu, do 2015. Cilj je bio krenuti od osnove iz 1990, kada je 36 procenata svetske populacije živelo u siromaštvu i stići do 18% siromašnih ove godine.
Did we hit this target? Well, no, we didn't. We exceeded it. This year, global poverty is going to fall to 12 percent. Now, that's still not good enough, and the world does still have plenty of problems. But the pessimists and doomsayers who say that the world can't get better are simply wrong.
Da li smo pogodili cilj? Pa, ne, nismo. Premašili smo ga. Ove će godine globalno siromaštvo da padne na 12 procenata. Pa, to i dalje nije dovoljno dobro i u svetu zaista i dalje ima mnogo problema. Ali pesimisti i predskazivači propasti koji tvrde da svet ne može da se popravi prosto nisu u pravu.
So how did we achieve this success? Well, a lot of it was because of economic growth. Some of the biggest reductions in poverty were in countries such as China and India, which have seen rapid economic growth in recent years. So can we pull off the same trick again? Can economic growth get us to the Global Goals? Well, to answer that question, we need to benchmark where the world is today against the Global Goals and figure out how far we have to travel.
Pa, kako smo postigli ovaj uspeh? Pa, uglavnom je to bilo zahvaljujući ekonomskom rastu. Najveća smanjenja siromaštva su se desila u zemljama poput Kine i Indije, koje su proteklih godina doživele nagli ekonomski rast. Dakle, možemo li da izvedemo ponovo isti trik? Može li nas ekonomski rast dovesti do Globalnih ciljeva? Pa, kako bismo odgovorili na to moramo da imamo reper gde je svet danas u odnosu na Globalne ciljeve i da otkrijemo koliko daleko moramo da idemo.
But that ain't easy, because the Global Goals aren't just ambitious, they're also pretty complicated. Over 17 goals, there are then 169 targets and literally hundreds of indicators. Also, while some of the goals are pretty specific -- end hunger -- others are a lot vaguer -- promote peaceful and tolerant societies.
Ali to nije lako zato što Globalni ciljevi nisu samo ambiciozni, oni su i prilično komplikovani. Na više od 17 ciljeva dolazi 169 meta i bukvalno na stotine pokazatelja. Takođe, iako su neki ciljevi prilično specifični - okončati glad - drugi su mnogo nejasniji - promocija mirnog i tolerantnog društva.
So to help us with this benchmarking, I'm going to use a tool called the Social Progress Index. What this does is measures all the stuff the Global Goals are trying to achieve, but sums it up into a single number that we can use as our benchmark and track progress over time.
Kako bih nam pomogao u nalaženju repera, koristiću oruđe koje se zove Indeks društvenog napretka. On meri sve ono što Globalni ciljevi pokušavaju da ostvare, a sumira sve to u jedan broj koji možemo da koristimo kao reper i da vremenom pratimo napredak.
The Social Progress Index basically asks three fundamental questions about a society. First of all, does everyone have the basic needs of survival: food, water, shelter, safety? Secondly, does everyone have the building blocks of a better life: education, information, health and a sustainable environment? And does everyone have the opportunity to improve their lives, through rights, freedom of choice, freedom from discrimination, and access to the world's most advanced knowledge?
Indeks društvenog napretka u suštini postavlja tri temeljna pitanja o društvu. Pre svega, da li svako ima osnovne životne potrebe: hranu, vodu, sklonište, sigurnost? Pod dva, da li svako ima građu za bolji život: obrazovanje, informisanost, zdravlje i održivu životnu sredinu? I ima li svako mogućnost da unapređuje svoj život kroz prava, slobodu izbora, slobodu od diskriminacije i kroz pristup najnaprednijem svetskom znanju?
The Social Progress Index sums all this together using 52 indicators to create an aggregate score on a scale of 0 to 100. And what we find is that there's a wide diversity of performance in the world today. The highest performing country, Norway, scores 88. The lowest performing country, Central African Republic, scores 31. And we can add up all the countries together, weighting for the different population sizes, and that global score is 61. In concrete terms, that means that the average human being is living on a level of social progress about the same of Cuba or Kazakhstan today.
Indeks društvenog napretka sve to sumira, koristeći 52 pokazatelja kako bi došao da zbira na skali od 0 do 100. A otkrili smo da postoji ogromno nesaglasje u učinku u današnjem svetu. Najuspešnija zemlja, Norveška, ima zbir 88. Najneuspešnija zemlja, Centralnoafrička Republika, ima zbir 31. Možemo sakupiti sve države, uzimajući u obzir količinu populacije i taj globalni zbir je 61. Konkretno, to znači da prosečno ljudsko biće živi na nivou društvenog napretka, otprilike kao današnja Kuba ili Kazahstan.
That's where we are today: 61 out of 100. What do we have to get to to achieve the Global Goals?
Tu smo danas: 61 od 100. Šta moramo da postignemo da bi ostvarili Globalne ciljeve?
Now, the Global Goals are certainly ambitious, but they're not about turning the world into Norway in just 15 years. So having looked at the numbers, my estimate is that a score of 75 would not only be a giant leap forward in human well-being, it would also count as hitting the Global Goals target. So there's our target, 75 out of 100. Can we get there?
Sad, Globalni ciljevi su, bez sumnje, ambiciozni, ali ne radi se o pretvaranju sveta u Norvešku za samo 15 godina. Pa, posmatrajući brojke, moja procena je da bi zbir 75, ne samo bio ogroman skok napred za opšte dobro ljudi, takođe bi značio pogađanje mete Globalnih ciljeva. Dakle, evo naše mete: 75 od 100. Možemo li stići tu?
Well, the Social Progress Index can help us calculate this, because as you might have noticed, there are no economic indicators in there; there's no GDP or economic growth in the Social Progress Index model. And what that lets us do is understand the relationship between economic growth and social progress.
Pa, Indeks društvenog napretka nam može pomoći u računanju toga jer, kako ste možda već primetili, tu nema ekonomskih pokazatelja; nema BDP ili ekonomskog rasta u modelu Indeksa društvenog napretka. A to nam dozvoljava da razumemo vezu između ekonomskog rasta i društvenog napretka.
Let me show you on this chart. So here on the vertical axis, I've put social progress, the stuff the Global Goals are trying to achieve. Higher is better. And then on the horizontal axis, is GDP per capita. Further to the right means richer. And in there, I'm now going to put all the countries of the world, each one represented by a dot, and on top of that I'm going to put the regression line that shows the average relationship. And what this tells us is that as we get richer, social progress does tend to improve. However, as we get richer, each extra dollar of GDP is buying us less and less social progress. And now we can use this information to start building our forecast. So here is the world in 2015. We have a social progress score of 61 and a GDP per capita of $14,000. And the place we're trying to get to, remember, is 75, that Global Goals target. So here we are today, $14,000 per capita GDP. How rich are we going to be in 2030? That's what we need to know next. Well, the best forecast we can find comes from the US Department of Agriculture, which forecasts 3.1 percent average global economic growth over the next 15 years, which means that in 2030, if they're right, per capita GDP will be about $23,000. So now the question is: if we get that much richer, how much social progress are we going to get? Well, we asked a team of economists at Deloitte who checked and crunched the numbers, and they came back and said, well, look: if the world's average wealth goes from $14,000 a year to $23,000 a year, social progress is going to increase from 61 to 62.4.
Pokazaću vam na ovom grafikonu. Dakle, ovde sam na vertikalnoj osi stavio društveni napredak, ono što Globalni ciljevi pokušavaju da ostvare. Što više to bolje. A potom je na horizontalnoj osi BDP po glavi stanovnika. Što više desno, to su bogatiji. I tu ću da stavim sve države sveta, svaka je predstavljena tačkom, a povrh svega ću da povučem liniju regresije koja pokazuje prosečan odnos. A ovo nam govori da što smo bogatiji, društveni napredak ima tendenciju rasta. Međutim, kako postajemo još bogatiji, svaki dodatni dolar BDP-a nam kupuje sve manje i manje društvenog napretka. Sad možemo da koristimo ove informacije da bismo počeli da pravimo predviđanja. Dakle, ovo je svet u 2015. Imamo zbir društvenog napretka 61 i BDP po glavi stanovnika od 14,000 dolara. A mesto do koga pokušavamo da stignemo, sećate se, je 75, meta Globalnih ciljeva. Dakle, tu smo danas BDP po glavi stanovnika je 14,000 dolara. Koliko ćemo biti bogati 2030? To je sledeće što moramo da otkrijemo. Pa, najbolju prognozu nalazimo u američkom Ministarstvu poljoprivrede, koje predviđa prosečan svetski ekonomski rast od 3,1 procenta u narednih 15 godina što znači da će 2030, ako su u pravu, BDP po glavi stanovnika biti oko 23,000 dolara. Sada se postavlja pitanje: ako postanemo toliko bogati, koliki ćemo društveni napredak ostvariti? Pa, upitali smo ekipu ekonomista u Delojtu, koji su proverili i usitnili brojke i vratili su se i rekli, pazite: ako prosečno svetsko bogatstvo poraste sa 14,000 na 23,000 dolara godišnje, društveni napredak će da poraste sa 61 do 62,4.
(Laughter)
(Smeh)
Just 62.4. Just a tiny increase.
Samo 62,4. Samo sićušan porast.
Now this seems a bit strange. Economic growth seems to have really helped in the fight against poverty, but it doesn't seem to be having much impact on trying to get to the Global Goals. So what's going on? Well, I think there are two things. The first is that in a way, we're the victims of our own success. We've used up the easy wins from economic growth, and now we're moving on to harder problems. And also, we know that economic growth comes with costs as well as benefits. There are costs to the environment, costs from new health problems like obesity.
Ovo se čini čudnim. Čini se da je ekonomski rast zaista pomogao u borbi protiv siromaštva, ali ne čini se da ima značajan uticaj u pokušaju dostizanja Globalnih ciljeva. Pa, o čemu se radi? Mislim da imamo dve stvari. Prva je u tome što smo mi, na neki način, žrtve sopstvenog uspeha. Iskoristili smo lake pobede ekonomskog rasta i sada prelazimo na teže probleme. A takođe, znamo da uz ekonomski rast idu i troškovi, kao i koristi. Životna sredina ispašta, troškovi od novih zdravstvenih problema, poput gojaznosti.
So that's the bad news. We're not going to get to the Global Goals just by getting richer.
Dakle, to su loše vesti. Nećemo ostvariti Globalne ciljeve pukim bogaćenjem.
So are the pessimists right?
Dakle, jesu li pesimisti u pravu?
Well, maybe not. Because the Social Progress Index also has some very good news. Let me take you back to that regression line. So this is the average relationship between GDP and social progress, and this is what our last forecast was based on. But as you saw already, there is actually lots of noise around this trend line.
Pa, možda i nisu. Jer Indeks društvenog napretka takođe donosi veoma dobre vesti. Vratićemo se liniji regresije. Dakle, ovo je prosečan odnos između BDP-a i društvenog napretka i na ovome je bazirano naše poslednje predviđanje. No, kako ste već videli mnogo je buke oko ove linije našeg kretanja.
What that tells us, quite simply, is that GDP is not destiny. We have countries that are underperforming on social progress, relative to their wealth. Russia has lots of natural resource wealth, but lots of social problems. China has boomed economically, but hasn't made much headway on human rights or environmental issues. India has a space program and millions of people without toilets. Now, on the other hand, we have countries that are overperforming on social progress relative to their GDP. Costa Rica has prioritized education, health and environmental sustainability, and as a result, it's achieving a very high level of social progress, despite only having a rather modest GDP. And Costa Rica's not alone. From poor countries like Rwanda to richer countries like New Zealand, we see that it's possible to get lots of social progress, even if your GDP is not so great.
Ona nam govori, prilično jasno, da BDP nije sudbina. Imamo nezadovoljavajuće zemlje iz društvenog napretka, u poređenju s njihovim bogatstvom. Rusija je bogata mnoštvom prirodnih resursa, ali ima i mnogo društvenih problema. Kina je imala ekonomski procvat, ali nije mnogo napredovala u ljudskim pravima i ekološkim pitanjima. Indija ima svemirski program i milione ljudi bez toaleta. Sad, s druge strane, imamo zemlje koje su uspešne iz društvenog napretka, u poređenju sa BDP. Kostarika je odredila za prioritete: obrazovanje, zdravstvo i održivost i kao rezultat toga, postiže visoke rezultate iz društvenog napretka, uprkos tome što ima prilično skroman BDP. A Kostarika nije usamljena. Od siromašnih zemalja, poput Ruande, do bogatijih zemalja, poput Novog Zelanda, vidimo da je moguće postići značajan društveni napredak, čak i kada vam BDP nije sjajan.
And that's really important, because it tells us two things. First of all, it tells us that we already in the world have the solutions to many of the problems that the Global Goals are trying to solve. It also tells us that we're not slaves to GDP. Our choices matter: if we prioritize the well-being of people, then we can make a lot more progress than our GDP might expect.
A to je zaista važno jer nam govori dve stvari. Pre svega, govori nam da u svetu već postoje rešenja za mnoge probleme koje Globalni ciljevi pokušavaju da reše. Takođe nam govori da nismo robovi BDP-a. Naši izbori su važni: ako nam je prioritet dobrobit ljudi, onda možemo da postignemo daleko više napretka nego što naš BDP nagoveštava.
How much? Enough to get us to the Global Goals? Well, let's look at some numbers. What we know already: the world today is scoring 61 on social progress, and the place we want to get to is 75. If we rely on economic growth alone, we're going to get to 62.4. So let's assume now that we can get the countries that are currently underperforming on social progress -- the Russia, China, Indias -- just up to the average. How much social progress does that get us? Well, that takes us to 65. It's a bit better, but still quite a long way to go. So let's get a little bit more optimistic and say, what if every country gets a little bit better at turning its wealth into well-being? Well then, we get to 67. And now let's be even bolder still. What if every country in the world chose to be like Costa Rica in prioritizing human well-being, using its wealth for the well-being of its citizens? Well then, we get to nearly 73, very close to the Global Goals.
Koliko? Dovoljno da ostvarimo Globalne ciljeve? Pa, pogledajmo neke brojke. Šta nam je već poznato: današnji svet ima zbir 61 iz društvenog napretka, a želimo stići do 75. Ako se oslonimo samo na ekonomski rast, stići ćemo samo do 62,4. Zato pretpostavimo da možemo da dovedemo države koje trenutno imaju nezadovoljavajući društveni napredak- Rusija, Kina, Indija - da samo budu prosečne. Koliko društvenog napretka bi nam to donelo? Pa, to bi nas dovelo do 65. Malo je bolje, ali je i dalje dug put pred nama. Pa, budimo malo optimističniji i pitajmo: šta ako bi svaka zemlja postala malo bolja u pretvaranju bogatstva u dobrobit? Pa, onda bismo stigli do 67. A sad budimo još odvažniji. Šta kad bi svaka država u svetu odlučila da bude kao Kostarika i da joj prioritet bude dobrobit ljudi, da koristi svoje bogatstvo za dobrobit svojih građana? Pa onda bismo stigli skoro do 73 veoma blizu Globalnih ciljeva.
Can we achieve the Global Goals? Certainly not with business as usual. Even a flood tide of economic growth is not going to get us there, if it just raises the mega-yachts and the super-wealthy and leaves the rest behind. If we're going to achieve the Global Goals we have to do things differently. We have to prioritize social progress, and really scale solutions around the world. I believe the Global Goals are a historic opportunity, because the world's leaders have promised to deliver them. Let's not dismiss the goals or slide into pessimism; let's hold them to that promise. And we need to hold them to that promise by holding them accountable, tracking their progress all the way through the next 15 years.
Možemo li da postignemo Globalne ciljeve? Svakako ne, radeći po običaju. Čak ni poplavni talas ekonomskog rasta nas neće dovesti do njih, ako samo poveća broj mega jahti i super bogatih i ostavi nas ostale iza sebe. Ako želimo da postignemo Globalne ciljeve moramo da radimo drugačije. Društveni napredak nam mora biti prioritet i moramo da uvećamo rešenja širom sveta. Verujem da su Globalni ciljevi istorijska šansa jer su svetske vođe obećale da će ih ispuniti. Ne odbacujmo ciljeve i ne srljajmo u pesimizam; držimo ih za to obećanje. A držaćemo ih za to obećanje tako što ćemo ih smatrati odgovornim, prateći njihov napredak svih narednih 15 godina.
And I want to finish by showing you a way to do that, called the People's Report Card. The People's Report Card brings together all this data into a simple framework that we'll all be familiar with from our school days, to hold them to account. It grades our performance on the Global Goals on a scale from F to A, where F is humanity at its worst, and A is humanity at its best. Our world today is scoring a C-. The Global Goals are all about getting to an A, and that's why we're going to be updating the People's Report Card annually, for the world and for all the countries of the world, so we can hold our leaders to account to achieve this target and fulfill this promise. Because getting to the Global Goals will only happen if we do things differently, if our leaders do things differently, and for that to happen, that needs us to demand it.
A želim da završim pokazavši vam kako da to uradite, zove se Narodna izveštajna karta. Narodna izveštajna karta spaja sve ove podatke u jednostavan okvir koji nam je svima poznat iz školskih dana, kako bismo ih držali odgovornim. Ona ocenjuje naš učinak u Globalnim ciljevima na skali od F do A, gde je F čovečanstvo u najgorem obliku, a A je čovečanstvo u najboljem obliku. Naš svet danas ima ocenu C-. Kod Globalnih ciljeva se radi o stizanju do A i zato ćemo godišnje da ažuriramo Narodnu izveštajnu kartu, čitavog sveta i svih država sveta kako bismo tražili odgovornost naših vođa da postignemo ovaj cilj i da ispunimo ovo obećanje. Jer ćemo postići Globalne ciljeve, jedino ako budemo radili drugačije, ako naše vođe budu radile drugačije, a da bi se to desilo, mi moramo to da zahtevamo.
So let's reject business as usual. Let's demand a different path. Let's choose the world that we want.
Zato odbacimo rađenje po običaju. Zahtevajmo drugi put. Izaberimo svet kakav želimo.
Thank you.
Hvala vam.
(Applause)
(Aplauz)
Bruno Giussani: Thank you, Michael. Michael, just one question: the Millennium Development Goals established 15 years ago, they were kind of applying to every country but it turned out to be really a scorecard for emerging countries. Now the new Global Goals are explicitly universal. They ask for every country to show action and to show progress. How can I, as a private citizen, use the report card to create pressure for action?
Bruno Đusani: Hvala Majkl. Majkl, imam samo jedno pitanje. Milenijumski razvojni ciljevi koji su utvrđeni pre 15 godina, teoretski su se odnosili na sve države, ali se ispostavilo da je to zaista tabela za zemlje u razvoju. Novi Globalni ciljevi su eksplicitno univerzalni. Traže od svake države da dela i da pokaže napredak. Kako mogu ja, kao privatno lice, da koristim izveštajnu kartu i da izvršim pritisak za delanje?
Michael Green: This is a really important point; it's a big shift in priorities -- it's no longer about poor countries and just poverty. It's about every country. And every country is going to have challenges in getting to the Global Goals. Even, I'm sorry to say, Bruno, Switzerland has got to work to do. And so that's why we're going to produce these report cards in 2016 for every country in the world. Then we can really see, how are we doing? And it's not going to be rich countries scoring straight A's. And that, then, I think, is to provide a point of focus for people to start demanding action and start demanding progress.
Majkl Grin: Ovo je važna tačka, to je veliki zaokret u prioritetima - ne radi se više o siromašnim zemljama i samo o siromaštvu. Radi se o svim zemljama. A svaka država će se suočiti sa izazovima prilikom postizanja Globalnih ciljeva. Čak i, žao mi je što to kažem, Bruno, Švajcarska ima mnogo posla. I zato ćemo da napravimo ove izveštačke karte 2016. za sve države sveta. Onda ćemo zaista da znamo kako nam ide. I neće se desiti da bogate države dobiju čisto A. A to će onda, mislim, obezbediti smernicu ljudima da počnu da zahtevaju delanje i da počnu da zahtevaju napredak.
BG: Thank you very much.
BĐ: Mnogo ti hvala.
(Applause)
(Aplauz)