Imagine that you are a product designer. And you've designed a product, a new type of product, called the human immune system. You're pitching this product to a skeptical, strictly no-nonsense manager. Let's call him Bob. I think we all know at least one Bob, right? How would that go?
Zamislite da ste dizajner proizvoda. Dizajnirali ste proizvod, novu vrstu proizvoda, zvanu ljudski imunološki sustav. Pokušavate ga prodati skeptičnom, strogo ozbiljnom poslovođi. Nazovimo ga Bob. Svi poznajemo barem jednog Boba, zar ne? Kako bi to izgledalo?
Bob, I've got this incredible idea for a completely new type of personal health product. It's called the human immune system. I can see from your face that you're having some problems with this. Don't worry. I know it's very complicated. I don't want to take you through the gory details, I just want to tell you about some of the amazing features of this product. First of all, it cleverly uses redundancy by having millions of copies of each component -- leukocytes, white blood cells -- before they're actually needed, to create a massive buffer against the unexpected. And it cleverly leverages diversity by having not just leukocytes but B cells, T cells, natural killer cells, antibodies. The components don't really matter. The point is that together, this diversity of different approaches can cope with more or less anything that evolution has been able to throw up. And the design is completely modular. You have the surface barrier of the human skin, you have the very rapidly reacting innate immune system and then you have the highly targeted adaptive immune system. The point is, that if one system fails, another can take over, creating a virtually foolproof system.
Bobe, imam odličnu ideju za potpuno novu vrstu proizvoda za osobno zdravlje. Zove se ljudski imunološki sustav. Vidim ti na licu da imaš problem s ovime. Ne brini. Znam da je vrlo komplicirano. Ne želim ti opisivati razne detalje. Samo ti želim reći nešto o sjajnim karakteristikama ovog proizvoda. Kao prvo, pametno koristi redundanciju tako što ima milijune kopija svakog sastavnog dijela -- leukocita, bijelih krvnih stanica -- prije nego što su zapravo potrebni, da bi stvorio veliki štit protiv neočekivanog. I pametno poboljšava raznolikost tako što nema samo leukocite, već ima i B stanice, T stanice, prirodne stanice ubojice, antitijela. Sastavni dijelovi nisu važni. Stvar je u tome da se zajedno, ta raznolikost različitih pristupa, može nositi s gotovo bilo čime što nam je evolucija uspjela donijeti. I dizajn je u potpunosti modularan. Postoji površinska barijera ljudske kože, postoji prirođen imunološki sustav koji brzo reagira i zatim postoji najčešće ciljani prilagodljivi imunološki sustav. Stvar je u tome da ukoliko jedan sustav podbaci, drugi ga može zamijeniti, praktično stvarajući potpuno siguran sustav.
I can see I'm losing you, Bob, but stay with me, because here is the really killer feature. The product is completely adaptive. It's able to actually develop targeted antibodies to threats that it's never even met before. It actually also does this with incredible prudence, detecting and reacting to every tiny threat, and furthermore, remembering every previous threat, in case they are ever encountered again. What I'm pitching you today is actually not a stand-alone product. The product is embedded in the larger system of the human body, and it works in complete harmony with that system, to create this unprecedented level of biological protection. So Bob, just tell me honestly, what do you think of my product?
Vidim da te gubim Bobe, ali ostani sa mnom, jer evo stvarno najbolje karakteristike. Proizvod je u potpunosti prilagodljiv. Sposoban je proizvesti potrebna antitijela za prijetnje koje još nikada nije sreo. Zapravo, čini to s nevjerojatnom razboritošću, otkriva i reagira na svaku malu prijetnju, i štoviše, pamti svaku prethodnu prijetnju u slučaju da se ponovno susretnu. Što ti pokazujem danas, zapravo nije samostalni proizvod. Proizvod je usađen u veći sustav ljudskog tijela, i radi u potpunoj usklađenosti s tim sustavom, kako bi stvorili ovu do sada neviđenu biološku zaštitu. Stoga, Bobe, reci mi iskreno, što misliš o mom proizvodu?
And Bob may say something like, I sincerely appreciate the effort and passion that have gone into your presentation, blah blah blah --
A Bob bi mogao reći nešto kao, Iskreno cijenim trud i strast koji su uloženi u tvoju prezentaciju, bla bla bla --
(Laughter)
(Smijeh)
But honestly, it's total nonsense. You seem to be saying that the key selling points of your product are that it is inefficient and complex. Didn't they teach you 80-20? And furthermore, you're saying that this product is siloed. It overreacts, makes things up as it goes along and is actually designed for somebody else's benefit. I'm sorry to break it to you, but I don't think this one is a winner.
Ali iskreno, potpuna je bezvezarija. Čini se da govoriš da je prodajna prednost tvog proizvoda to što je neučinkovit i kompleksan. Nisu li te učili o Paretovom pravilu? Nadalje, govoriš mi da je ovaj proizvod izoliran. On pretjeruje, izmišlja stvari putem i zapravo je dizajniran za tuđu dobrobit. Žao mi je što ti moram to reći, ali ne mislim da je to ono što tražimo.
If we went with Bob's philosophy, I think we'd actually end up with a more efficient immune system. And efficiency is always important in the short term. Less complex, more efficient, more bang for the buck. Who could say no to that? Unfortunately, there's one very tiny problem, and that is that the user of this product, you or I, would probably die within one week of the next winter, when we encountered a new strain of the influenza virus.
Kada bismo pratili Bobovu filozofiju, mislim da bismo na kraju završili s puno efikasnijim imunološkim sustavom. A efikasnost je uvijek važna u kratkom roku. Manje kompleksno, više efikasno, više vrijednosti za novac. Tko bi mogao tome reći ne? Nažalost, postoji jedan vrlo mali problem, a to je taj da bi korisnik ovog proizvoda, vi ili ja, najvjerojatnije umro u roku od tjedan dana sljedeće zime, kada se susretnemo s novom vrstom virusa gripe.
I first became interested in biology and business, and longevity and resilience, when I was asked a very unusual question by the CEO of a global tech company. And the question was: What do we have to do to make sure that our company lasts 100 years? A seemingly innocent question, but actually, it's a little trickier than you might think, considering that the average US public company now can expect a life span of only 30 years. That is less than half of the life span that its employees can expect to enjoy.
Prvi sam se puta zainteresirao za biologijom i ekonomijom, dugovječnosti i otpornosti, kada sam bio upitan vrlo neuobičajeno pitanje od strane direktora globalne tehnološke kompanije. A pitanje je glasilo: Što moramo napraviti da bismo bili sigurni da će naša kompanija trajati 100 godina? Naizgled jednostavno pitanje, ali zapravo, kompliciranije nego što biste pomislili, uzimavši u obzir da prosječna kompanija u SAD-u danas može očekivati vijek trajanja od samo 30 godina. To je manje od polovine životnog vijeka koji njeni zaposlenici mogu očekivati.
Now, if you were the CEO of such a company, badgered by investors and buffeted by change, we might forgive you for not even worrying too much about what happens 30 years out. But here's something that should keep you awake at night: the probability that your company will not be around in five year's time, on average, is now a staggering 32 percent. That's a one in three chance that your company will be taken over or will fail within just five years.
I sada, da ste vi direktor takve kompanije, proganjani od strane investitora i izmučeni promjenama, mogli bismo vam oprostiti za to što ne brinete puno o tome što će biti za 30 godina. Ali evo nešto što bi vas trebalo držati budnima noću: vjerojatnost da vaša kompanija neće postojati kroz pet godina, u prosjeku je sada na zapanjujućih 32 posto. To je mogućnost jedan od tri da će vaša kompanija biti preuzeta ili će propasti kroz samo pet godina.
Let's come back to our tech CEO's question. Where better to turn for advice than nature, that's been in the business of life and death for longer than any company? As a lapsed biologist, I decided to immediately call a real biologist, my friend Simon Levin, Professor of Biology and Mathematics at Princeton University. Together, we looked at a variety of biological systems, ranging from natural tropical rainforests through to managed forests and fisheries. And we asked ourselves the question: What makes these systems resilient and enduring?
Vratimo se sada na direktorovo pitanje. Gdje bolje potražiti savjet nego u prirodi, koja je u poslu života i smrti više nego ijedna druga kompanija? Kao posrnuli biolog, odmah sam odlučio nazvati pravog biologa, svog prijatelja Simona Levina, profesora biologije i matematike na Princeton sveučilištu. Zajedno smo pogledali različite biološke sustave, krečući od prirodnih tropskih prašuma preko kontroliranih šuma i ribogojilišta. I zapitali smo se sljedeće pitanje: Što čini ove sustave otpornima i izdržljivima?
And what we found was that the same six principles that we saw underpinning the miracle of the human immune system actually cropped up again and again, from redundancy through to embeddedness. In fact, we saw these principles not only in biologically enduring systems, we also found them being very characteristic of long-lived social systems, like the Roman Empire and the Catholic Church, believe it or not. We also went on to look at business, and found that these very same properties also characterized businesses that were resilient and long-lived, and we noted their absence from ones which were short-lived.
I zaključili smo da se šest istih principa, koji podzidaju čudo ljudskog imunuloškog sustava, zapravo pojavljuju ponovno i ponovno, od suvišnosti pa sve do usađenosti. U stvari, ovi su principi, koje smo pronašli u biološki izdržljivim sustavima, vrlo karakteristični za dugovječne društvene sustave kao što su Rimsko Carstvo i Katolička Crkva, vjerovali ili ne. Također smo pogledali među poduzeća, te shvatili da su te iste osobine krasile i poduzeća koja su otporna i dugovječna, a njihov smo nedostatak uočili u onima koja su kratkog vijeka.
Let's first take a look at what happens when the corporate immune system collapses. This beautiful building is part of the Shitennoji Temple Complex in Osaka, Japan. In fact, it's one of the oldest temples in Japan. It was built by a Korean artisan, because at the time, Japan was not yet building temples. And this Korean artisan went on to found a temple-building company. Amazingly, his company, Kongō Gumi, was still around 1,428 years later. In fact, it became the oldest continuously operating company in the world.
Hajdemo prvo pogledati što se dogodi kada se imunološki sustav kompanije sruši. Ova prekrasna zgrada dio je kompleksa Shitennoji hrama u Osaki, Japanu. U stvari, to je jedan od najstarijih hramova u Japanu. Izgradio ga je korejski obrtnik, jer u to vrijeme Japan još nije gradio hramove. I taj je korejski obrntik krenuo dalje te osnovao poduzeće za izgradnju hramova. Nevjerojatno, ali njegovo je poduzeće, Kongo Gumi, postojalo i 1428 godina kasnije. U stvari, to je postalo najstarije poduzeće koje kontinuirano posluje u svijetu.
So how is Kongō Gumi doing today? Not too well, I'm afraid. It borrowed very heavily during the bubble period of the Japanese economy, to invest in real estate. And when the bubble burst, it couldn't refinance its loans. The company failed, and it was taken over by a major construction company. Tragically, after 40 generations of very careful stewardship by the Kongō family, Kongō Gumi succumbed to a spectacular lapse in the ability to apply a principle of prudence.
Pa kako je Kongo Gumi danas? Ne predobro, bojim se. Posuđivalo je jako puno tijekom velikog rasta Japanske ekonomije kako bi uložilo u nekretnine. A kada je došla recesija, nije moglo otplatiti svoje dugove. Poduzeće je propalo i preuzela ga je velika građevinska kompanija. Tragično, nakon 40 generacija vrlo opreznog upravljanja od strane Kongo obitelji, Kongo Gumi podleglo je spektakularnom propadanju u mogućnosti da primijeni načelo razboritosti.
Speaking of company failures: we're all familiar with the failure of Kodak, the company that declared bankruptcy in January 2012. Much more interesting, however, is the question: Why did Fujifilm -- same product, same pressures from digital technology, same time -- why was Fujifilm able to survive and flourish?
Govoreći o propasti kompanija : svi smo upoznati s propašću Kodaka, kompanije koja je proglasila bankrot u siječnju 2012. godine. Puno je zanimljivije, doduše, pitanje : Zašto je Fujifilm -- isti proizvod, isti pritisci digitalne tehnologije, ista vremena -- zašto je Fujifilm bio sposoban preživjeti i napredovati?
Fujifilm used its capabilities in chemistry, material science and optics to diversify into a number of areas, ranging from cosmetics to pharmaceuticals, to medical systems to biomaterials. Some of these diversification attempts failed. But in aggregate, it was able to adapt its portfolio sufficiently to survive and flourish. As the CEO, Mr. Komori, put it, the strategy succeeded because it had "more pockets and drawers" than the rivals. He meant, of course, that they were able to create more options than the rivals. Fujifilm survived because it applied the principles of prudence, diversity and adaptation.
Fujifilm je iskoristio svoja znanja u kemiji, materijalnoj znanosti i optici kako bi diversificirao u brojnim područjima, krečući od kozmetike do farmacije, od medicinskih sustava do biomaterijala. Neke su od ovih diversifikacija propale. Ali u konačnom zbroju, bio je sposoban dovoljno prilagoditi svoj portfelj kako bi preživio i napredovao. Kako je direktor, gospodin Komori, rekao : "Strategija je uspjela jer su imali više "ladica i džepova" nego konkurenti." Mislio je, naravno, da su bili sposobni stvoriti više opcija nego konkurenti. Fujifilm je preživio jer je primijenio načela razboritosti, različitosti i prilagodljivosti.
A catastrophic factory fire, like the one we see here, completely wiped out, in one evening, the only plant which supplied Toyota with valves for car-braking systems. The ultimate test of resilience. Car production ground to a screeching halt. How was it, then, that Toyota was able to recover car production? Can you imagine how long it took? Just five days. From having no braking valves to complete recovery in five days. How was this possible? Toyota managed its network of suppliers in such a collaborative manner that it could work very quickly and smoothly with suppliers to repurpose production, fill the missing braking valve capacity and have car production come online again. Toyota applied the principles of modularity of its supply network, embeddedness in an integrated system and the functional redundancy to be able to repurpose, smoothly, existing capacity.
Katastrofalni požar u tvornici, kao što vidimo jedan ovdje, u potpunosti je uništio, u jednoj večeri, jedinu tvornicu koja je opskrbljivala Toyotu ventilima za kočnice automobila. Ultimativni ispit otpornosti. Proizvodnja automobila došla je do cvilećeg zastoja. Kako je onda Toyota bila sposobna oporaviti proizvodnju automobila? Možete li zamisliti koliko je trajalo? Samo pet dana. Od situacije u kojoj nemaju kočne ventile do potpunog oporavka u pet dana. Kako je to moguće? Toyota je organizirala svoju mrežu dobavljača na suradnički način koji je omogućio vrlo brzi i lak rad s dobavljačima da preusmjere proizvodnju, da popune kapacitet nedostajećih kočnih ventila te da se proizvodnja automobila ponovno pokrene. Toyota je primijenila načela modularnosti svoje dobavljačke mreže, ugrađenosti integriranog sustava i funkcionalnog preobilja da bi lako prenamijenila postojeći kapacitet.
Now fortunately, few companies succumb to catastrophic fires. But we do read in the newspaper every day about companies succumbing to the disruption of technology. How is it, then, that the consumer optics giant Essilor is able to avoid technology disruption, and even profit from it? And yes, technology disruption is not only a big deal in software and electronics. Essilor carefully scans the competitive environment for potentially disruptive technologies. It acquires those technologies very early, before they've become expensive or competitors have mobilized around them, and it then develops those technologies itself, even at the risk of failure or the risk of self-disruption. Essilor stays ahead of its game, and has delivered spectacular performance for over 40 years, by using the principles of prudence and adaptation.
Sada, na sreću, malo kompanija podliježe katastrofalnim požarima. Ali i dalje svakodnevno čitamo u vijestima o kompanijama koje podliježu prekidu tehnologije. Kako je onda moguće da je gigant potrošačke optike Essilor sposoban izbjeći prekide u tehnologiji, te čak izvući profit iz toga? I da, tehnološki prekid nije velika stvar samo u industriji softvera i elektronike. Essilor oprezno skenira konkurentski okoliš zbog mogućih prekida u tehnologiji. On steče novu tehnologiju vrlo rano, prije nego što postane skupa ili se konkurenti mobiliziraju oko nje, te zatim sam razvija tu tehnologiju, čak i s rizikom neuspjeha ili rizikom samostalnog prekida. Essilor je uvijek korak ispred, te tako ostvaruje izvanredan učinak već više od 40 godina, koristeći načela razboritosti i prilagodljivosti.
OK, if these principles are so powerful, you might be thinking, why are they not commonplace in business? Why do we not use these words every day? Well, change has to first start in the mind. If we think back to our pitch to Bob, in order to apply the principles that underpin the miracle of the human immune system, we first need to think differently about business. Now typically, when we think about business, we use what I call "mechanical thinking." We set goals, we analyze problems, we construct and we adhere to plans, and more than anything else, we stress efficiency and short-term performance. Now, don't get me wrong -- this is a splendidly practical and effective way of addressing relatively simple challenges in relatively stable environments. It's the way that Bob -- and probably many of us, myself included -- process most business problems we're faced with every day. In fact, it was a pretty good mental model for business -- overall -- until about the mid-1980s, when the conjunction of globalization and a revolution in technology and telecommunications made business far more dynamic and unpredictable.
U redu, ako su ova načela toliko moćna, vjerojatno mislite, zašto nisu često primijenjena u poslu? Zašto ne koristimo te riječi svakodnevno? Pa, promjena mora prvo započeti u glavi. Ako se sjetimo našeg nagovaranja Boba, kako bismo primijenili načela koja podupiru čudo ljudskog imunološkog sustava, prvo moramo početi razmišljati drugačije o poslu. Sada, tipično, kada razmišljamo o poslu, koristimo, kako ja to zovem, "mehaničko razmišljanje". Postavljamo ciljeve, analiziramo probleme, konstruiramo i držimo se planova, i više nego išta drugo, naglašavamo efikasnost i kratkoročni učinak. Nemojte krivo shvatiti -- ovo je savršeno praktičan i učinkovit način za oslovljavanje relativno jednostavnih izazova u relativno stabilnim okruženjima. To je način na koji Bob -- i vjerojatno mnogi od nas, uključujući mene -- obrađujemo većinu svakodnevnih poslovnih problema. U stvari, to je bio vrlo dobar mentalni model za poslovanje -- općenito -- do sredine 1980-ih, kada je spoj globalizacije i revolucije u tehnologiji i telekomunikaciji učinio poslovanje više dinamičnim i nepredvidljivim.
But what about those more dynamic and unpredictable situations that we now increasingly face? I think in addition to the mechanical thinking, we now need to master the art of biological thinking, as embodied by our six principles. In other words, we need to think more modestly and subtly about when and how we can shape, rather than control, unpredictable and complex situations. It's a little like the difference between throwing a ball and releasing a bird. The ball would head in a straight line, probably towards the intended target, and the bird certainly would not.
Ali što je s tim dinamičnijim i nepredvidljivim situacijama s kojima se danas sve više susrećemo? Mislim da, uz dodatak mehaničkom razmišljanju, moramo savladati umijeće biološkog razmišljanja koje utjelovljuje naših šest načela. Drugim riječima, moramo razmišljati skromnije i suptilnije o tome kada i kako možemo oblikovati, rađe nego kontrolirati, nepredvidljive i kompleksne situacije. To je pomalo kao razlika između bacanja lopte i puštanja ptice. Lopta bi se kretala pravocrtno, najvjerojatnije prema određenoj meti, a ptica zasigurno ne bi.
So what do you think? Sounds a little impractical, a little theoretical, perhaps? Not at all. Every small entrepreneurial company naturally thinks and acts biologically. Why? Because it lacks the resources to shape its environment through brute force. It lacks the scale to buffer change, and it's constantly thinking about the tough odds for a start-up to survive. Now, the irony is, of course, that every large company started off as a small, entrepreneurial company. But along the way somewhere, many have lost this ability to think and act biologically. They need to rejuvenate their ability to think biologically in order to survive and thrive in today's environment.
Stoga, što mislite? Zvuči pomalo nepraktično, malo teoretski, možda? Nipošto. Svaka mala poduzetnička kompanija prirodno razmišlja i djeluje biološki. Zašto? Zato što joj nedostaju resursi da oblikuje svoj okoliš brutalnom silom. Nedostaje joj veličina da ublaži promjene, te konstantno razmišlja o teškim izgledima same mlade kompanije da preživi. Ironija je, naravno, što je svaka velika kompanija počela kao mala, poduzetnička kompanija. Ali su negdje usput, mnoge izgubile umijeće da razmišljaju i djeluju biološki. Moraju pomladiti svoje umijeće da razmišljaju biološki kako bi preživjele i napredovale u današnjem okruženju.
So let's not just think about short-term performance. Every company I know spends plenty of time thinking about the central question of strategy: How good is our competitive game? In addition, let's also consider the second, more biological and equally important question: How long will that game last?
Stoga, nemojmo razmišljati samo o kratkoročnom učinku. Svaka kompanija koju poznajem provodi puno vremena razmišljajući o centralnom pitanju strategije : Kolika je naša konkurentost? U dodatku, razmislimo također o drugom, više biološkom, ali jednako važnom pitanju : Koliko će ta konkurentnost trajati?
Thank you very much.
Hvala vam lijepa.
(Applause)
(Pljesak)