Ten years ago, I wrote a book which I entitled "Our Final Century?" Question mark. My publishers cut out the question mark. (Laughter) The American publishers changed our title to "Our Final Hour." Americans like instant gratification and the reverse. (Laughter)
Miaka kumi iliyopita, niliandika kitabu nilichokipa jina "Karne yetu ya mwisho?" Alama ya kuuliza. Wachapishaji wa kitabu hiki waliondoa alama ya kuuliza. (Vicheko) Wachapishaji wa Marekani walibadili jina na kuwa "Lisaa Letu la Mwisho". Wamarekani hupenda kuridhishwa haraka na kinyume. (Vicheko)
And my theme was this: Our Earth has existed for 45 million centuries, but this one is special — it's the first where one species, ours, has the planet's future in its hands. Over nearly all of Earth's history, threats have come from nature — disease, earthquakes, asteroids and so forth — but from now on, the worst dangers come from us. And it's now not just the nuclear threat; in our interconnected world, network breakdowns can cascade globally; air travel can spread pandemics worldwide within days; and social media can spread panic and rumor literally at the speed of light. We fret too much about minor hazards — improbable air crashes, carcinogens in food, low radiation doses, and so forth — but we and our political masters are in denial about catastrophic scenarios. The worst have thankfully not yet happened. Indeed, they probably won't. But if an event is potentially devastating, it's worth paying a substantial premium to safeguard against it, even if it's unlikely, just as we take out fire insurance on our house.
Na ujumbe wangu ulikuwa huu: Dunia yetu imekuwepo kwa karne milioni 45, lakini hii hapa ni maalumu --- ni ya kwanza ambayo jamii moja, yetu, ina mustakabali wa sayari mikononi mwake. Zaidi karibia ya historia yote ya Dunia, vitisho vimetoka kwenye mazingira, magonjwa, mitetemeko ya ardhi na mengine mengi -- lakini kuanzia sasa, hatari kubwa inatoka kwetu. Na sasa sio matisho tu ya nuklia; kwenye dunia yetu iliyoungana, kuvunjika kwa mitandao kunaweza sambaa duniani; usafiri wa anga unaweza kusambaza magonjwa dunia nzima ndani ya siku; na mitandao ya kijamii inaweza kusambaza vitisho na uzushi kihalisi kama kasi ya mwanga. Tunagombana sana kuhusu matatizo madogo -- uwezekano wa ndege kudondoka, kemikali kwenye chakula, dozi ndogo za mionzi, na kadhalika -- lakini sisi na wakuu wetu wa siasa tupo kwenye kukana kuhusu hali za majanga. Bahati nzuri mabaya hayajatokea bado. Kweli, pengine hayatatokea. Lakini kama tukio lina maafa makubwa, linastahili kupewa faida kubwa kulinda dhidi yake, hata kama inaweza isitokee, kama tunavyotoa bima ya moto kwenye nyumba yetu.
And as science offers greater power and promise, the downside gets scarier too. We get ever more vulnerable. Within a few decades, millions will have the capability to misuse rapidly advancing biotech, just as they misuse cybertech today. Freeman Dyson, in a TED Talk, foresaw that children will design and create new organisms just as routinely as his generation played with chemistry sets. Well, this may be on the science fiction fringe, but were even part of his scenario to come about, our ecology and even our species would surely not survive long unscathed. For instance, there are some eco-extremists who think that it would be better for the planet, for Gaia, if there were far fewer humans. What happens when such people have mastered synthetic biology techniques that will be widespread by 2050? And by then, other science fiction nightmares may transition to reality: dumb robots going rogue, or a network that develops a mind of its own threatens us all.
Kama sayansi inavyoleta nguvu kubwa na ahadi, upande wa chini unazidi kuogopesha pia. Tunazidi kuwa dhaifu na waoga, Ndani ya miongo michache, mamilioni watakuwa na uwezo, wa kutumia vibaya bioteknolojia inayokua, Kama wanavyotumia teknolojia vibaya leo. Freeman Dyson, kwenye mazungumzo ya TED, aliona kuwa huko mbeleni watoto wataweza kutengeneza viumbe hai kama ambavyo kizazi chake kilivyocheza na seti za kemia. Hii inaweza kuwa sayansi ya kubuniwa zaidi, lakini tuna amini itatokea hata kwa kiasi, mazingira yetu na hata viumbe vyetu hawataweza kuishi muda mrefu bila kubadilika, Mfano, kuna wanamazingira wengi wa msimamo mkali, wanaomini kua itafaa kwa sayari yetu, kwa Gaia, kama kutakuwa na binadamu wachache. Nini kitatokea kama watu hawa wakifuzu ufundi wa kibiolojia za sanisia ambao utasambaa ifikapo mwaka 2050? Kipindi hicho, matisho mengine ya sayansi ya kubuniwa yanaweza kugeuka kweli: roboti za kijinga kujiongoza zenyewe, au mtandao unaotumia akili yake yenyewe unatutisha sote.
Well, can we guard against such risks by regulation? We must surely try, but these enterprises are so competitive, so globalized, and so driven by commercial pressure, that anything that can be done will be done somewhere, whatever the regulations say. It's like the drug laws — we try to regulate, but can't. And the global village will have its village idiots, and they'll have a global range.
Je, tutaweza kujikinga na hizi hatari kwa sheria? Itabidi tujaribu, lakini hizi biashara zina ushindani mkubwa, zipo dunia nzima, na zinasukumwa na mbinu za biashara, kwa kila kinachoweza kufanyika, kitafanyika mahali, bila kujali sheria zinasema nini. Ni kama sheria za madawa -- tunajaribu kuzipunguza, lakini hatuwezi. Na kijiji cha dunia kitakua na wajinga wa kijiji, nao watakua na masafa ya dunia.
So as I said in my book, we'll have a bumpy ride through this century. There may be setbacks to our society — indeed, a 50 percent chance of a severe setback. But are there conceivable events that could be even worse, events that could snuff out all life? When a new particle accelerator came online, some people anxiously asked, could it destroy the Earth or, even worse, rip apart the fabric of space? Well luckily, reassurance could be offered. I and others pointed out that nature has done the same experiments zillions of times already, via cosmic ray collisions. But scientists should surely be precautionary about experiments that generate conditions without precedent in the natural world. Biologists should avoid release of potentially devastating genetically modified pathogens.
Kama nilivyosema kwenye kitabu changu, tutakuwa na mwendo mtata kwenye hii karne. Kunaweza kuwa na vikwazo kwenye jamii yetu -- kweli, asilimia 50 ya vikwazo zikali. Lakini kuna matukio ya maana yanayoweza kuwa mabaya zaidi, matukio yanayoweza kutoa maisha yote? Pale punje mpya chochezi iikija mtandaoni, badhi ya watu walijiuliza kwa bidii, vinaweza kuharibu dunia, au mbaya zaidi, kuharibu kabisa mfumo wa anga? Bahati nzuri, tuliweza kujihakikishia. Mimi na wenzangu tulisema kua asili imefanya majaribio kama hayo mara zilioni tayari, kutumia kugongana kwa miali ya anga. Lakini wanasayansi wanatakiwa wawe makini kuhusu majaribio yanayotengeneza hali bila uhakiki kwenye dunia ya halisi. Wanabiolojia wanatakiwa kuepuka kuachia uharibifu muhimu wa vimelea vilivyoundwa kijenetiki.
And by the way, our special aversion to the risk of truly existential disasters depends on a philosophical and ethical question, and it's this: Consider two scenarios. Scenario A wipes out 90 percent of humanity. Scenario B wipes out 100 percent. How much worse is B than A? Some would say 10 percent worse. The body count is 10 percent higher. But I claim that B is incomparably worse. As an astronomer, I can't believe that humans are the end of the story. It is five billion years before the sun flares up, and the universe may go on forever, so post-human evolution, here on Earth and far beyond, could be as prolonged as the Darwinian process that's led to us, and even more wonderful. And indeed, future evolution will happen much faster, on a technological timescale, not a natural selection timescale.
Na pia, karaha yetu ya kipekee kwenye hatari ya mafaa makubwa inatokana na swali hili kubwa la msingi, nalo ni; Zingatia hali mbili. Hali A inaua asilimia 90 ya binadamu. Hali B inaua asilimia 100. Je B ni mbaya kiasi gani kuliko A? Baadhi watasema ni asilimia 10 mbaya zaidi. Idadi ni asilimia 10 zaidi. Lakini nasema kua B ni mbaya zaidi. Kama mwanafalaki, siamini binadamu ni mwisho wa hadithi. Ni miaka bilioni tano mpaka jua liripuke, na ulimwengu ungeendelea kuwepo, kwahiyo mageuzi ya binadamu wa baadae, hapa duniani na kwingineko mbali, inaweza kuwa ndefu kama harakati ya Darwinian iliyokuja kwetu, na nzuri zaidi. Na kweli, mageuzi ya mbeleni yatatokea kwa haraka zaidi, kwenye kipimo cha mda cha teknolojia, sio wa uchaguzi wa asili.
So we surely, in view of those immense stakes, shouldn't accept even a one in a billion risk that human extinction would foreclose this immense potential. Some scenarios that have been envisaged may indeed be science fiction, but others may be disquietingly real. It's an important maxim that the unfamiliar is not the same as the improbable, and in fact, that's why we at Cambridge University are setting up a center to study how to mitigate these existential risks. It seems it's worthwhile just for a few people to think about these potential disasters. And we need all the help we can get from others, because we are stewards of a precious pale blue dot in a vast cosmos, a planet with 50 million centuries ahead of it. And so let's not jeopardize that future.
Kwahiyo tupo katika mwanga wa hicho kipimo, kutokupokea hata hatari moja kati ya billioni ambayo kupotea kwa binadamu kutasababisha huu uwezekano mkubwa. Baadhi ya hali ambazo zilionyesha kua kweli zingekua sayansi ya kubuniwa, lakini nyingine zinaweza kuwa ni za kweli. Ni msemo muhimu kua vile visivyozoeleka sio sawa na vinavyoshindikana, na ndio maana, sisi katika Chuo cha Cambridge, tunaanda kitivo cha kujifunza jinsi ya kuepuka hizi hatari kubwa. Inaonekana ni ya maana kwa watu wachache kuwaza kuhusu haya mafaa yanayoweza kutokea. Na tunahitaji msaada wote tutakaopata kwa wengine, sababu sote ni wahudumu wa, kidoti cha bluu kwenye ulimwengu huu mkubwa, sayari yenye karne milioni 50 mbele yake. Kwa hiyo tusiharibu mustakabali wetu.
And I'd like to finish with a quote from a great scientist called Peter Medawar. I quote, "The bells that toll for mankind are like the bells of Alpine cattle. They are attached to our own necks, and it must be our fault if they do not make a tuneful and melodious sound."
Na ningependa kumalizia na nukuu kutoka kwa mwanasayansi mashuhuri aitwae Peter Medawar. nanukuu "Kengengele zinazolia kwa binadamu ni kama zile za mifugo ya Alpine. Zimefungwa shingoni mwetu wenyewe, na ni juu yetu kama hazitatengeneza mfuatano mzuri wa sauti."
Thank you very much.
Asanteni sana.
(Applause)
(Makofi)