Ten years ago, I wrote a book which I entitled "Our Final Century?" Question mark. My publishers cut out the question mark. (Laughter) The American publishers changed our title to "Our Final Hour." Americans like instant gratification and the reverse. (Laughter)
Pre deset godina, napisao sam knjigu koju sam nazvao "Naš poslednji vek?" sa znakom pitanja. Moji izdavači su izbacili upitnik. (Smeh) Američki izdavači su promenili naslov u "Naš poslednji čas". Amerikanci vole trenutno zadovoljavanje i obrnuto. (Smeh)
And my theme was this: Our Earth has existed for 45 million centuries, but this one is special — it's the first where one species, ours, has the planet's future in its hands. Over nearly all of Earth's history, threats have come from nature — disease, earthquakes, asteroids and so forth — but from now on, the worst dangers come from us. And it's now not just the nuclear threat; in our interconnected world, network breakdowns can cascade globally; air travel can spread pandemics worldwide within days; and social media can spread panic and rumor literally at the speed of light. We fret too much about minor hazards — improbable air crashes, carcinogens in food, low radiation doses, and so forth — but we and our political masters are in denial about catastrophic scenarios. The worst have thankfully not yet happened. Indeed, they probably won't. But if an event is potentially devastating, it's worth paying a substantial premium to safeguard against it, even if it's unlikely, just as we take out fire insurance on our house.
Moja tema je bila ovo: naša Zemlja postoji 45 miliona vekova, ali ovaj je poseban - to je prvi gde jedna vrsta, naša, drži budućnost planete u svojim rukama. Tokom skoro cele istorije Zemlje, pretnju je predstavljala priroda - zaraze, zemljotresi, asteroidi i drugo - ali od sada, mi predstavljamo najveću opasnost. To sada nije samo nuklearna pretnja - u našem povezanom svetu, pad mreže može da se manifestuje globalno, avionski letovi mogu da rašire epidemije širom sveta za nekoliko dana, a društveni mediji mogu da šire paniku i glasine bukvalno brzinom svetlosti. Previše strahujemo oko manjih pretnji - neverovatnih sudara u letu, karcinogena u hrani, malih doza radijacije i tako dalje - ali mi i naši politički gospodari živimo u poricanju oko katastrofalnih scenarija. Na sreću, najgori se još nisu desili. Zaista, verovatno ni neće. Ali ako je događaj potencijalno razarajući, vredi platiti značajno osiguranje da se od njega zaštitite, čak i ako nije verovatan, kao što osiguravamo kuće protiv požara.
And as science offers greater power and promise, the downside gets scarier too. We get ever more vulnerable. Within a few decades, millions will have the capability to misuse rapidly advancing biotech, just as they misuse cybertech today. Freeman Dyson, in a TED Talk, foresaw that children will design and create new organisms just as routinely as his generation played with chemistry sets. Well, this may be on the science fiction fringe, but were even part of his scenario to come about, our ecology and even our species would surely not survive long unscathed. For instance, there are some eco-extremists who think that it would be better for the planet, for Gaia, if there were far fewer humans. What happens when such people have mastered synthetic biology techniques that will be widespread by 2050? And by then, other science fiction nightmares may transition to reality: dumb robots going rogue, or a network that develops a mind of its own threatens us all.
A kako nauka nudi sve veću moć i obećanja, loša strana takođe postaje sve strašnija. Postajemo sve ranjiviji. Kroz nekoliko decenija, milioni će imati mogućnost zloupotrebe biotehnologije koja se brzo razvija, isto kao što danas zloupotrebljavaju sajber tehnologiju. U TED govoru, Friman Dajson je predvideo da će deca dizajnirati i stvarati nove organizme rutinski kao što se njegova generacija igrala kompletima za hemiju. Ovo je možda na ivici naučne fantastike, ali ukoliko se obistini samo deo njegovog scenarija, naša ekologija i čak i naša vrsta ne bi dugo preživele nedirnute. Na primer, postoje neki eko-ekstremisti koji misle da bi bilo bolje za planetu, za Gaju, da postoji mnogo manje ljudi. Šta bi se desilo kada bi takvi ljudi ovladali tehnikama sintetičke biologije koje će biti sveprisutne do 2050? Do tada, drugi košmari iz naučne fantastike možda postanu stvarnost: glupi roboti koji podivljaju ili mreža koja počne sama da misli i preti svima nama.
Well, can we guard against such risks by regulation? We must surely try, but these enterprises are so competitive, so globalized, and so driven by commercial pressure, that anything that can be done will be done somewhere, whatever the regulations say. It's like the drug laws — we try to regulate, but can't. And the global village will have its village idiots, and they'll have a global range.
Možemo li se regulisanjem braniti od takvih rizika? Sigurno moramo pokušati, ali ova preduzeća su toliko takmičarski nastrojena, toliko globalizovana i vođena komercijalnim pritiskom da će sve što može da bude urađeno biti urađeno negde, bez obzira na pravila. To je poput zakona o drogama - pokušavamo da regulišemo, ali ne možemo. Globalno selo će imati svoje seoske idiote, a oni će imati globalni opseg.
So as I said in my book, we'll have a bumpy ride through this century. There may be setbacks to our society — indeed, a 50 percent chance of a severe setback. But are there conceivable events that could be even worse, events that could snuff out all life? When a new particle accelerator came online, some people anxiously asked, could it destroy the Earth or, even worse, rip apart the fabric of space? Well luckily, reassurance could be offered. I and others pointed out that nature has done the same experiments zillions of times already, via cosmic ray collisions. But scientists should surely be precautionary about experiments that generate conditions without precedent in the natural world. Biologists should avoid release of potentially devastating genetically modified pathogens.
Kao što sam rekao u svojoj knjizi, čeka nas nezgodna vožnja kroz ovaj vek. Možda će biti prepreka za naše društvo - zaista, šanse za veliku prepreku su 50%. Ali da li postoje zamislivi događaji koji bi mogli biti još gori, događaji koji bi ugasili sav život? Kada se na internetu pojavio novi akcelerator čestica, neki ljudi su se nervozno upitali da li bi mogao da uništi Zemlju, ili još gore, razori materiju svemira? Na sreću, postoji uteha. Ja i drugi smo istakli da je priroda izvodila iste eksperimente već nebrojeno puta, preko sudara kosmičkih zraka. Ali naučnici bi svakako trebalo da paze na eksperimente koji stvaraju uslove bez presedana u prirodnom svetu. Biolozi bi trebalo da izbegavaju puštanje potencijalno razarajućih genetski modifikovanih patogena.
And by the way, our special aversion to the risk of truly existential disasters depends on a philosophical and ethical question, and it's this: Consider two scenarios. Scenario A wipes out 90 percent of humanity. Scenario B wipes out 100 percent. How much worse is B than A? Some would say 10 percent worse. The body count is 10 percent higher. But I claim that B is incomparably worse. As an astronomer, I can't believe that humans are the end of the story. It is five billion years before the sun flares up, and the universe may go on forever, so post-human evolution, here on Earth and far beyond, could be as prolonged as the Darwinian process that's led to us, and even more wonderful. And indeed, future evolution will happen much faster, on a technological timescale, not a natural selection timescale.
Usput, naša naročita averzija prema riziku od zaista egzistencijalnih katastrofa zavisi od filozofskog i etičkog pitanja, a to je sledeće. Zamislite dva scenarija. Prvi scenario će zbrisati 90% čovečanstva. Drugi će zbrisati 100%. Koliko je drugi gori od prvog? Neki bi rekli 10% gori. Broj mrtvih je 10% veći. Ali ja mislim da je drugi nemerljivo gori. Kao astronom, ne mogu da verujem da su ljudi kraj priče. Ima pet milijardi godina pre nego što se Sunce zapali i univerzum se možda zauvek nastavi, dakle post-ljudska evolucija, na Zemlji i dalje od nje, može da se produži kao i Darvinov proces koji je doveo do nas, i da bude još lepša. Evolucija u budućnosti će se zaista dešavati mnogo brže na tehnološkoj skali, ne na skali prirodne selekcije.
So we surely, in view of those immense stakes, shouldn't accept even a one in a billion risk that human extinction would foreclose this immense potential. Some scenarios that have been envisaged may indeed be science fiction, but others may be disquietingly real. It's an important maxim that the unfamiliar is not the same as the improbable, and in fact, that's why we at Cambridge University are setting up a center to study how to mitigate these existential risks. It seems it's worthwhile just for a few people to think about these potential disasters. And we need all the help we can get from others, because we are stewards of a precious pale blue dot in a vast cosmos, a planet with 50 million centuries ahead of it. And so let's not jeopardize that future.
U svetlu tih ogromnih rizika, sigurno ne bi trebalo da prihvatimo ni rizik jednog u milijardu da bi istrebljenje ljudi moglo da prekine ovaj ogromni potencijal. Neki scenariji koji su zamišljeni zaista mogu da budu naučna fantastika, ali drugi mogu da budu razočaravajuće realni. Važna je maksima da nepoznato nije isto što i nemoguće i zato zapravo na Univerzitetu Kembridž osnivamo centar za izučavanje toga kako da se umanje ovi egzistencijalni rizici. Čini se kao da vredi da samo nekoliko ljudi razmišlja o ovim potencijalnim katastrofama. Potrebna nam je sva pomoć koju možemo dobiti od drugih jer smo posada na dragocenoj bledoj plavoj tački u ogromnom kosmosu, na planeti koja ispred sebe ima 50 miliona vekova. Hajde da ne ugrozimo tu budućnost.
And I'd like to finish with a quote from a great scientist called Peter Medawar. I quote, "The bells that toll for mankind are like the bells of Alpine cattle. They are attached to our own necks, and it must be our fault if they do not make a tuneful and melodious sound."
Želeo bih da završim citatom sjajnog naučnika, Pitera Medavara. On kaže: "Zvona koja zvone za čovečanstvom su poput zvona na grlima stoke u Alpima. Prikačena su za naše vratove i mora da je naša krivica ako ne proizvode harmoničan i melodičan zvuk."
Thank you very much.
Mnogo vam hvala.
(Applause)
(Aplauz)