Einstein said that "I never think about the future — it comes soon enough."
爱因斯坦曾说过: “我从来不去想未来, 因为它来得已经够快的了。”
And he was right, of course. So today, I'm here to ask you to think of how the future is happening now. Over the past 200 years, the world has experienced two major waves of innovation. First, the Industrial Revolution brought us machines and factories, railways, electricity, air travel, and our lives have never been the same. Then the Internet revolution brought us computing power, data networks, unprecedented access to information and communication, and our lives have never been the same.
当然,他说得对。 今天我站在这里就是要让大家思考 未来如何正在我们眼前展开。 在过去的200年里,人类经历了 两波巨大的创新。 第一波是工业革命 给我们带来了机器、工厂、铁路、 电能、飞机, 从此我们的生活大不相同。 最近的互联网革命 给我们带来了强大的运算能力、数据网络、 和史无前例的获取信息和进行沟通的能力, 和史无前例的获取信息和进行沟通的能力, 从此我们的生活大不相同。
Now we are experiencing another metamorphic change: the industrial Internet. It brings together intelligent machines, advanced analytics, and the creativity of people at work. It's the marriage of minds and machines. And our lives will never be the same.
如今,我们正在期待 另一场质的变化: 物联网。 它将不同的智能机器、 先进的分析技术、 和人类的创造力结合在一起,进行工作。 它是大脑和机器的结合。 从此我们的生活将大不相同。
In my current role, I see up close how technology is beginning to transform industrial sectors that play a huge role in our economy and in our lives: energy, aviation, transportation, health care. For an economist, this is highly unusual, and it's extremely exciting, because this is a transformation as powerful as the Industrial Revolution and more, and before the Industrial Revolution, there was no economic growth to speak of.
我目前的工作使我可以近距离地看到 科技正在改变 那些在我们的经济和生活中 扮演了重要角色的工业部门, 比如能源、航空、交通、医疗保健等等。 对一个经济学家来说,这是非比寻常 更是让人极度兴奋的, 因为这是和工业革命一样强大 甚至更强大的转型, 在工业革命之前, 完全无经济增长可言。
So what is this industrial Internet? Industrial machines are being equipped with a growing number of electronic sensors that allow them to see, hear, feel a lot more than ever before, generating prodigious amounts of data. Increasingly sophisticated analytics then sift through the data, providing insights that allow us to operate the machines in entirely new ways, a lot more efficiently. And not just individual machines, but fleets of locomotives, airplanes, entire systems like power grids, hospitals. It is asset optimization and system optimization. Of course, electronic sensors have been around for some time, but something has changed: a sharp decline in the cost of sensors and, thanks to advances in cloud computing, a rapid decrease in the cost of storing and processing data.
那么这个物联网究竟是什么? 工业机器正被装上 越来越多的传感器, 这使得它们能够具备视觉、听觉和其它感觉 比以前强大多了, 它们可以产生惊人的数据量。 接着日益成熟的分析技术 对这些数据进行过滤, 从而给我们提供了 全新的、更有效率的 操作机器的方法。 不仅仅是单一的机器, 还有整列火车、飞机、 甚至整个电网、医院等等。 它可以做到资源和系统的最优化。 当然,传感器 已经存在了一段时间了, 但是不同的是, 感应器价格的急剧下降 还有多亏了云计算的发展, 储存和处理数据的价格 大大下降了。
So we are moving to a world where the machines we work with are not just intelligent; they are brilliant. They are self-aware, they are predictive, reactive and social. It's jet engines, locomotives, gas turbines, medical devices, communicating seamlessly with each other and with us. It's a world where information itself becomes intelligent and comes to us automatically when we need it without having to look for it. We are beginning to deploy throughout the industrial system embedded virtualization, multi-core processor technology, advanced cloud-based communications, a new software-defined machine infrastructure which allows machine functionality to become virtualized in software, decoupling machine software from hardware, and allowing us to remotely and automatically monitor, manage and upgrade industrial assets.
所以我们正进入这样一个世界: 那里与我们打交道的机器 不仅聪明,而且绝顶聪明。 它们能感知自我,有预测能力, 反应迅速,可以社交。 飞机引擎、火车、燃气轮机、 医疗器械可以互相之间、 以及和我们流畅地沟通。 在这个世界,信息变得 如此聪明,它会在我们 需要它的时候自动出现, 而不需要我们去寻找。 我们已经开始在 整个工业系统中进行部署 嵌入式虚拟化技术, 多核处理器技术, 先进的基于云的通信技术, 新的软件定义的机器基础设施—— 这使得机器 成为虚拟化软件, 使机器的软件和硬件脱钩, 并允许我们远距离地、自动地 监测、管理以及升级工业设备。
Why does any of this matter at all? Well first of all, it's already allowing us to shift towards preventive, condition-based maintenance, which means fixing machines just before they break, without wasting time servicing them on a fixed schedule. And this, in turn, is pushing us towards zero unplanned downtime, which means there will be no more power outages, no more flight delays.
这些与我们有任何关系吗? 首先,它已经使我们 能够转向预防性的、 基于条件的机器维护, 也就是在机器即将坏掉之前 就把它修理好, 而不是浪费时间 按照固定日程进行检修。 而这意味着 零计划外故障时间, 也就是说,再也不会停电、 再也不会有飞机延误。
So let me give you a few examples of how these brilliant machines work, and some of the examples may seem trivial, some are clearly more profound, but all of them are going to have a very powerful impact.
那么让我给大家举几个 这些绝顶聪明的机器如何运作的例子, 有些例子可能看上去微不足道, 有些看上去则明显更深远, 但是所有的都会产生非常巨大的影响。
Let's start with aviation. Today, 10 percent of all flights cancellations and delays are due to unscheduled maintenance events. Something goes wrong unexpectedly. This results in eight billion dollars in costs for the airline industry globally every year, not to mention the impact on all of us: stress, inconvenience, missed meetings as we sit helplessly in an airport terminal. So how can the industrial Internet help here? We've developed a preventive maintenance system which can be installed on any aircraft. It's self-learning and able to predict issues that a human operator would miss. The aircraft, while in flight, will communicate with technicians on the ground. By the time it lands, they will already know if anything needs to be serviced. Just in the U.S., a system like this can prevent over 60,000 delays and cancellations every year, helping seven million passengers get to their destinations on time.
让我们从航空业开始。 现今,10%的航班 取消或延误 是由于临时的维护事件。 突然有个部分出问题了。 每年全球的航空业要因此 遭受80亿美元的损失, 更不用提这些事件对我们的影响了: 压力,不方便, 无助地坐在机场航站楼, 眼睁睁地错过会议。 那物联网在此能起到什么作用呢? 我们开发了一套预防性的维护系统, 它可以被安装在任何一架飞机上。 它有自学的能力,能否预测 容易被人类操作员忽视的问题。 飞机在飞行过程中, 会跟地面的技术人员保持沟通。 等到降落的时候,他们就已经知道 是否有任何部分需要维护。 仅在美国,这样一个系统就可以预防 每年超过6万次的延误和取消, 帮助700万的乘客 准时到达他们的目的地。
Or take healthcare. Today, nurses spend an average of 21 minutes per shift looking for medical equipment. That seems trivial, but it's less time spent caring for patients. St. Luke's Medical Center in Houston, Texas, which has deployed industrial Internet technology to electronically monitor and connect patients, staff and medical equipment, has reduced bed turnaround times by nearly one hour. If you need surgery, one hour matters. It means more patients can be treated, more lives can be saved. Another medical center, in Washington state, is piloting an application that allows medical images from city scanners and MRIs to be analyzed in the cloud, developing better analytics at a lower cost. Imagine a patient who has suffered a severe trauma, and needs the attention of several specialists: a neurologist, a cardiologist, an orthopedic surgeon. If all of them can have instantaneous and simultaneous access to scans and images as they are taken, they will be able to deliver better healthcare faster. So all of this translates into better health outcomes, but it can also deliver substantial economic benefits. Just a one-percent reduction in existing inefficiencies could yield savings of over 60 billion dollars to the healthcare industry worldwide, and that is just a drop in the sea compared to what we need to do to make healthcare affordable on a sustainable basis.
再以医疗行业为例: 今天,护士们平均要花 每轮21分钟 寻找医疗设备。 这看上去微不足道, 但这却让病人得到照顾的时间变少了 位于德克萨斯休斯敦的圣路加医疗中心 已经利用了物联网技术 来监测,以及连接 病人、工作人员和医疗设备, 这使得其床位周转时间 减少了近一个小时。 如果你急需做手术,一个小时很重要。 这意味着更多的病人可以得到治疗, 更多的生命可以被拯救。 另一个在华盛顿州的医疗中心, 正在试验一项应用,这项应用使得 CT扫描和核磁共振的结果 能够在云端进行分析, 分析的效果更好 价格也更低。 想象一下 一位刚刚遭受了重创的病人, 他需要多个领域专家的会诊: 神经科医师,心脏病专家, 整形外科医生。 如果他们可以即时地在同一时间看到 扫描结果和图像, 他们就能够提供更好更快的医疗。 所有的这些都意味着更好的健康, 同时还可以产生可观的经济效益。 现有的低效率仅减少1% 就可以节约全球医疗行业 600亿美元, 而这只是沧海一粟, 要打造价格实惠的可持续的医疗, 我们需要做的还有很多。
Similar advances are happening in energy, including renewable energy. Wind farms equipped with new remote monitorings and diagnostics that allow wind turbines to talk to each other and adjust the pitch of their blades in a coordinated way, depending on how the wind is blowing, can now produce electricity at a cost of less than five cents per kilowatt/hour. Ten years ago, that cost was 30 cents, six times as much.
同样的技术进步也正被能源行业发生着, 包括可再生能源。 装有新的遥控监测和诊断的风电场, 风力涡轮机之间可以互相沟通 并根据风的情况协调 调整其叶片的角度, 现在每产生一度电 成本可以降低到5美分 十年前,这需要30美分, 是现在的6倍。
The list goes on, and it will grow fast, because industrial data are now growing exponentially. By 2020, they will account for over 50 percent of all digital information.
其他的例子还有很多,并在不断增加, 因为物联网的数据正以指数型增长。 到2020年,物联网产生的数据会占到 电子数据总量的50%以上。
But this is not just about data, so let me switch gears and tell you how this is impacting already the jobs we do every day, because this new wave of innovation is bringing about new tools and applications that will allow us to collaborate in a smarter and faster way, making our jobs not just more efficient but more rewarding. Imagine a field engineer arriving at the wind farm with a handheld device telling her which turbines need servicing. She already has all the spare parts, because the problems were diagnosed in advanced. And if she faces an unexpected issue, the same handheld device will allow her to communicate with colleagues at the service center, let them see what she sees, transmit data that they can run through diagnostics, and they can stream videos that will guide her, step by step, through whatever complex procedure is needed to get the machines back up and running. And their interaction gets documented and stored in a searchable database.
但这不仅仅是关于数据, 下面我要跟大家说说这已经正在影响 我们每天做的工作, 因为这新一波的创新 给我们带来了新的工具和应用, 使我们能够更聪明 更快地合作, 不仅让我们的工作更有效率, 也更有价值。 想象一下一个来到风电场的现场工程师, 她带着一个手持式装置,她已经知道 哪个涡轮需要维护。 她已经带来了所有需要的部件, 因为问题已经事先被诊断过了。 如果她碰到了意料之外的问题, 这个手持式装置使得她可以 和在服务中心的同事沟通, 让他们看见现场, 给他们发送用于诊断的数据, 然后他们可以现场视频指导她, 一步一步,不管程序多复杂, 最终修好机器并使其成功运转。 他们的这个互动过程被记录下来 并存储在一个可搜索的数据库里面。
Let's stop and think about this for a minute, because this is a very important point. This new wave of innovation is fundamentally changing the way we work. And I know that many of you will be concerned about the impact that innovation might have on jobs. Unemployment is already high, and there is always a fear that innovation will destroy jobs. And innovation is disruptive. But let me stress two things here. First, we've already lived through mechanization of agriculture, automation of industry, and employment has gone up, because innovation is fundamentally about growth. It makes products more affordable. It creates new demand, new jobs. Second, there is a concern that in the future, there will only be room for engineers, data scientists, and other highly-specialized workers. And believe me, as an economist, I am also scared. But think about it: Just as a child can easily figure out how to operate an iPad, so a new generation of mobile and intuitive industrial applications will make life easier for workers of all skill levels. The worker of the future will be more like Iron Man than the Charlie Chaplin of "Modern Times." And to be sure, new high-skilled jobs will be created: mechanical digital engineers who understand both the machines and the data; managers who understand their industry and the analytics and can reorganize the business to take full advantage of the technology.
让我们停下来思考一下, 这里有个非常重要的点。 这新一轮的创新正在从根本上 改变我们工作的方式。 我知道你们很多人担心这些创新 可能会对工作机会带来的影响。 失业率已经很高了, 而创新会消灭工作机会的担忧总是挥之不去。 创新是颠覆性的。 但是让我强调两点。 首先,我们已经经历过了 农业机械化,工业自动化, 最终就业率上去了, 因为创新是刺激增长的根本动力。 它让产品的价格更实惠, 它创造了新的需求,新的工作。 第二,有人担心未来 会只需要工程师、 数据科学家,以及其他高度专业化的劳动者。 相信我,作为一个经济学家,我也很害怕。 但是你想想: 正如一个小孩很容易就搞清楚 如何操作一个iPad, 新一代的移动的直观的 工业应用会让不同技术程度的 工作者的生活都变得更容易。 未来的工作者会更像一个钢铁侠, 而不是“摩登时代”中的查理·卓别林。 毋庸置疑,新的高技术含量的工作会被创造出来: 比如机械数据工程师,他们 不仅懂得机器,还懂数据(分析); 那些熟悉自己所在的行业 又懂数据分析技术的经理,可以利用这些技术 重新组织自己的工作使利益最大化。
But now let's take a step back. Let's look at the big picture. There are people who argue that today's innovation is all about social media and silly games, with nowhere near the transformational power of the Industrial Revolution. They say that all the growth-enhancing innovations are behind us. And every time I hear this, I can't help thinking that even back in the Stone Age, there must have been a group of cavemen sitting around a fire one day looking very grumpy, and looking disapprovingly at another group of cavemen rolling a stone wheel up and down a hill, and saying to each other, "Yeah, this wheel thing, cool toy, sure, but compared to fire, it will have no impact. The big discoveries are all behind us." (Laughter)
现在让我们退一步。 让我们看一下大的场景。 有人称现在的创新 都是关于社交媒体和无聊的游戏, 其变革的力量与工业革命时期 相差甚远。 他们说那些促进增长的创新 已经过去了。 每次我听到这些的时候,我就忍不住想: 即使在石器时代, 肯定也有那么一群洞穴人 某一天坐在篝火旁, 看上去有点生气, 不悦地看着另一群将一个石轮子 在山上来回滚动的洞穴人。 并互相说: “这个轮子的东西, 不错,是好玩,但是和火比起来, 肯定用处不大。 伟大的发现都已经过去啦。” (笑声)
This technological revolution is as inspiring and transformational as anything we have ever seen. Human creativity and innovation have always propelled us forward. They've created jobs. They've raised living standards. They've made our lives healthier and more rewarding. And the new wave of innovation which is beginning to sweep through industry is no different. In the U.S. alone, the industrial Internet could raise average income by 25 to 40 percent over the next 15 years, boosting growth to rates we haven't seen in a long time, and adding between 10 and 15 trillion dollars to global GDP. That is the size of the entire U.S. economy today.
这一波的技术创新 和以往的任何创新一样 鼓舞人心,会带来变革。 人类的创造力和创新一直推动着我们前进。 它们创造了工作。 它们提高了生活水平。 它们使我们的生活 更健康更有价值。 而这新一波刚刚开始 席卷各个行业的创新 也是如此。 仅在美国,物联网 在接下来的15年里,就可以将收入 提高平均25%到40%, 带给我们久别的快速经济增长, 并给全球GDP增加10到15万亿美元。 这是当今美国的经济总量。
But this is not a foregone conclusion. We are just at the beginning of this transformation, and there will be barriers to break, obstacles to overcome. We will need to invest in the new technologies. We will need to adapt organizations and managerial practices. We will need a robust cybersecurity approach that protects sensitive information and intellectual property and safeguards critical infrastructure from cyberattacks. And the education system will need to evolve to ensure students are equipped with the right skills. It's not going to be easy, but it is going to be worth it. The economic challenges facing us are hard, but when I walk the factory floor, and I see how humans and brilliant machines are becoming interconnected, and I see the difference this makes in a hospital, in an airport, in a power generation plant, I'm not just optimistic, I'm enthusiastic. This new technological revolution is upon us.
但这还没有发生。 我们正处于这场变革的开始, 途中会遇到各种困难 需要我们去克服。 我们需要投资新的技术, 我们需要调整组织和管理实践, 我们需要强大的网络安全管理技术 来保护敏感信息和知识产权 以及关键基础设施,免遭网络攻击。 我们的教育系统也需要改进, 以保障学生获得相应的技能。 这个过程不会很容易, 但是肯定会值得。 我们面临的经济挑战很艰难, 但是当我走进工厂, 看到人类和绝顶聪明的机器 相互协作, 我看到这将给 医院、机场, 和发电厂带来的变化。我不仅乐观, 我还非常期待。 这一新的技术革命已经到来了。
So think about the future — it will be here soon enough.
所以想想未来吧,它很快就要到了。
Thank you.
谢谢!
(Applause)
(掌声)