Einstein said that "I never think about the future — it comes soon enough."
Ajnštajn je rekao: "Nikada ne razmišljam o budućnosti - dovoljno brzo stiže."
And he was right, of course. So today, I'm here to ask you to think of how the future is happening now. Over the past 200 years, the world has experienced two major waves of innovation. First, the Industrial Revolution brought us machines and factories, railways, electricity, air travel, and our lives have never been the same. Then the Internet revolution brought us computing power, data networks, unprecedented access to information and communication, and our lives have never been the same.
Naravno, bio je u pravu. Danas sam tu da vas zamolim da razmislite kako se budućnost dešava sada. Tokom proteklih 200 godina, svet je iskusio dva glavna talasa inovacija. Prvo nam je industrijska revolucija donela mašine i fabrike, pruge, struju, putovanja avionom i naši životi nikada više nisu bili isti. Zatim nam je internet revolucija donela kompjutersku moć, mreže podataka, pristup bez presedana informacijama i komunikaciji i naši životi su se zauvek promenili.
Now we are experiencing another metamorphic change: the industrial Internet. It brings together intelligent machines, advanced analytics, and the creativity of people at work. It's the marriage of minds and machines. And our lives will never be the same.
Sada se suočavamo sa drugom metamorfičnom promenom: sa industrijskim internetom. On spaja inteligentne mašine, naprednu analitiku i kreativnost ljudi na poslu. To je brak umova i mašina. I naši životi nikada više neće biti isti.
In my current role, I see up close how technology is beginning to transform industrial sectors that play a huge role in our economy and in our lives: energy, aviation, transportation, health care. For an economist, this is highly unusual, and it's extremely exciting, because this is a transformation as powerful as the Industrial Revolution and more, and before the Industrial Revolution, there was no economic growth to speak of.
U svojoj trenutnoj ulozi, vidim izbliza kako tehnologija počinje da preobražava industrijske sektore od ogromnog značaja za našu privredu i živote: energiju, avijaciju, transport, zdravstvenu zaštitu. Za ekonomiste je to vrlo neobično i izuzetno uzbudljivo, jer je ovaj preobražaj snažan kao industrijska revolucija i više, a pre industrijske revolucije se nije govorilo o privrednom rastu.
So what is this industrial Internet? Industrial machines are being equipped with a growing number of electronic sensors that allow them to see, hear, feel a lot more than ever before, generating prodigious amounts of data. Increasingly sophisticated analytics then sift through the data, providing insights that allow us to operate the machines in entirely new ways, a lot more efficiently. And not just individual machines, but fleets of locomotives, airplanes, entire systems like power grids, hospitals. It is asset optimization and system optimization. Of course, electronic sensors have been around for some time, but something has changed: a sharp decline in the cost of sensors and, thanks to advances in cloud computing, a rapid decrease in the cost of storing and processing data.
Šta je taj industrijski internet? Industrijske mašine su opremljene sve većim brojem elektronskih senzora koji će im omogućiti da vide, čuju, osećaju mnogo više nego ikad pre, stvarajući iscrpne količine podataka. Sve sofisticiranije raščlanjavanje, zatim ispitivanje svih podataka, daje uvid koji nam omogućava da upravljamo mašinama na potpuno nove načine, mnogo efikasnije. I to ne samo pojedine mašine, već flote lokomotiva, aviona, celokupnih sistema kao što su energetske mreže, bolnice. To je optimizacija imovine i optimizacija sistema. Naravno, elektronski senzori su tu već neko vreme, ali nešto se promenilo: oštar pad cene senzora i zahvaljujući napretku računarstva u oblaku rapidno su se smanjili troškovi skladištenja i obrade podataka.
So we are moving to a world where the machines we work with are not just intelligent; they are brilliant. They are self-aware, they are predictive, reactive and social. It's jet engines, locomotives, gas turbines, medical devices, communicating seamlessly with each other and with us. It's a world where information itself becomes intelligent and comes to us automatically when we need it without having to look for it. We are beginning to deploy throughout the industrial system embedded virtualization, multi-core processor technology, advanced cloud-based communications, a new software-defined machine infrastructure which allows machine functionality to become virtualized in software, decoupling machine software from hardware, and allowing us to remotely and automatically monitor, manage and upgrade industrial assets.
Dakle, selimo se u svet u kome su mašine sa kojim radimo ne samo inteligentne, već brilijantne. One su samosvesne, predskazujuće, reaktivne i društvene. To su mlazni motori, lokomotive, gasne turbine, medicinski uređaji, koji s lakoćom komuniciraju jedni s drugima i sa nama. U tom svetu sama informacija postaje inteligentna i dolazi nam automatski kad nam je potrebna bez potrebe da je tražimo. Počinjemo da primenjujemo širom industrijskog sistema ugrađenu virtualizaciju, višejezgarne procesore, napredne komunikacije iz oblaka, novu, softverski definisanu mašinsku infrastrukturu koja omogućava da mašinska funkcionalnost postane virtualizirana u softveru, razdvajanjem mašinskog softvera od hardvera i dopušta nam da daljinski i automatski pratimo, upravljamo i nadograđujemo industrijska postrojenja.
Why does any of this matter at all? Well first of all, it's already allowing us to shift towards preventive, condition-based maintenance, which means fixing machines just before they break, without wasting time servicing them on a fixed schedule. And this, in turn, is pushing us towards zero unplanned downtime, which means there will be no more power outages, no more flight delays.
Zašto bi nas se bilo šta od toga uopšte ticalo? Pa, pre svega, to nam već dopušta pomak prema preventivnom, održavanju po potrebi, što znači popravljanje mašina neposredno pre nego što se pokvare, bez gubljenja vremena za servisiranje prema utvrđenom rasporedu. A to nas dalje vodi prema nuli neplaniranih ispada, što znači da neće biti nijednog nestanka struje, niti zakasnelog leta.
So let me give you a few examples of how these brilliant machines work, and some of the examples may seem trivial, some are clearly more profound, but all of them are going to have a very powerful impact.
Dopustite mi da vam dam nekoliko primera kako ove brilijantne mašine rade, iako neki od primera mogu izgledati trivijalno, neki su očigledno dublji, ali će svi imati vrlo snažan uticaj.
Let's start with aviation. Today, 10 percent of all flights cancellations and delays are due to unscheduled maintenance events. Something goes wrong unexpectedly. This results in eight billion dollars in costs for the airline industry globally every year, not to mention the impact on all of us: stress, inconvenience, missed meetings as we sit helplessly in an airport terminal. So how can the industrial Internet help here? We've developed a preventive maintenance system which can be installed on any aircraft. It's self-learning and able to predict issues that a human operator would miss. The aircraft, while in flight, will communicate with technicians on the ground. By the time it lands, they will already know if anything needs to be serviced. Just in the U.S., a system like this can prevent over 60,000 delays and cancellations every year, helping seven million passengers get to their destinations on time.
Počnimo sa avijacijom. Danas 10 posto svih otkazanih i zakasnelih letova nastaje usled nepredvidljivosti u održavanju. Neočekivano nešto krene loše. Rezultat toga je 8 milijardi dolara troškova za avio industriju na globalnom nivou svake godine, da ne spominjem uticaj na sve nas: stres, neprijatnosti, propušteni sastanci dok bespomoćno sedimo na aerodromu. Kako može industrijski internet ovde pomoći? Razvili smo preventivni sistem za održavanje koji se može instalirati na svaki avion. On se sam uči i može da predvidi pitanja koja bi čovek propustio. Dok je avion u letu komuniciraće sa tehničarima na terenu. Do sletanja oni će već znati ako nešto treba da se servisira. Samo u SAD-u ovakav sistem može da spreči više od 60.000 kašnjenja i otkazivanja svake godine, pomažući da 7 miliona putnika stigne do svojih odredišta na vreme.
Or take healthcare. Today, nurses spend an average of 21 minutes per shift looking for medical equipment. That seems trivial, but it's less time spent caring for patients. St. Luke's Medical Center in Houston, Texas, which has deployed industrial Internet technology to electronically monitor and connect patients, staff and medical equipment, has reduced bed turnaround times by nearly one hour. If you need surgery, one hour matters. It means more patients can be treated, more lives can be saved. Another medical center, in Washington state, is piloting an application that allows medical images from city scanners and MRIs to be analyzed in the cloud, developing better analytics at a lower cost. Imagine a patient who has suffered a severe trauma, and needs the attention of several specialists: a neurologist, a cardiologist, an orthopedic surgeon. If all of them can have instantaneous and simultaneous access to scans and images as they are taken, they will be able to deliver better healthcare faster. So all of this translates into better health outcomes, but it can also deliver substantial economic benefits. Just a one-percent reduction in existing inefficiencies could yield savings of over 60 billion dollars to the healthcare industry worldwide, and that is just a drop in the sea compared to what we need to do to make healthcare affordable on a sustainable basis.
Ili uzmimo zdravstvo. Danas, medicinske sestre prosečno potroše 21 minut po smeni u potrazi za medicinskom opremom. To izgleda trivijalno, ali to je manje vremena posvećenog pacijentima. Medicinski centar Svetog Luke u Hjustonu u Teksasu, koji je primenio industrijsku internetsku tehnologiju za elektronski nadzor i povezivanje pacijenata, osoblja i medicinske opreme, smanjio je vreme smenjivanja kreveta za skoro jedan sat. Ako vam je operacija potrebna, jedan sat je bitan. To znači da se više pacijenata može lečiti i više života spasiti. Drugi medicinski centar, u državi Vašington, isprobava aplikaciju kojom se medicinski snimci iz gradskih skenera i magnetne rezonance analiziraju u oblaku da bi se razvijala bolja analitika po nižoj ceni. Zamislite pacijenta koji je pretrpeo tešku traumu, i potrebna mu je pažnja nekoliko stručnjaka: neurologa, kardiologa i hirurga ortopedije. Ako svi oni mogu momentalno i simultano da pristupe skenerima i snimcima, moći će da pruže bolju zdravstvenu zaštitu brže. Dakle, sve to se pretvara u bolje zdravstvene ishode, ali takođe doprinosi znatnim ekonomskim koristima. Ako bi se samo za 1 posto smanjile postojeće neefikasnosti moglo bi se uštedeti više od 60 milijardi dolara u svetskoj zdravstvenoj industriji, a to je samo kap u moru upoređujući sa onim šta bi trebalo da uradimo da bi zdravstvo bilo pristupačno na održivoj osnovi.
Similar advances are happening in energy, including renewable energy. Wind farms equipped with new remote monitorings and diagnostics that allow wind turbines to talk to each other and adjust the pitch of their blades in a coordinated way, depending on how the wind is blowing, can now produce electricity at a cost of less than five cents per kilowatt/hour. Ten years ago, that cost was 30 cents, six times as much.
Sličan napredak se događa u energetici, uključujući obnovljive energije. Vetroelektrane opremljene novim daljinskim praćenjima i dijagnostikama koje omogućavaju turbinama da razgovaraju jedna s drugom i da koordinirano prilagođavaju visinu svojih lopatica, u zavisnosti od toga kako vetar duva, sada proizvode struju po ceni nižoj od 5 centi po kilovatu na sat. Pre 10 godina je taj trošak bio 30 centi, šest puta viši.
The list goes on, and it will grow fast, because industrial data are now growing exponentially. By 2020, they will account for over 50 percent of all digital information.
Spisak se produžava i narašće brzo, jer industrijski podaci sada rastu eksponencijalno i do 2020. će iznositi preko 50 posto od svih digitalnih informacija.
But this is not just about data, so let me switch gears and tell you how this is impacting already the jobs we do every day, because this new wave of innovation is bringing about new tools and applications that will allow us to collaborate in a smarter and faster way, making our jobs not just more efficient but more rewarding. Imagine a field engineer arriving at the wind farm with a handheld device telling her which turbines need servicing. She already has all the spare parts, because the problems were diagnosed in advanced. And if she faces an unexpected issue, the same handheld device will allow her to communicate with colleagues at the service center, let them see what she sees, transmit data that they can run through diagnostics, and they can stream videos that will guide her, step by step, through whatever complex procedure is needed to get the machines back up and running. And their interaction gets documented and stored in a searchable database.
No, ne radi se samo o podacima, pa ću se prebaciti i reći vam kako to već sad utiče na svakodnevne poslove, jer ovaj novi talas inovacija donosi nove alate i aplikacije koje će nam omogućiti saradnju na pametniji i brži način, čineći naše poslove ne samo efikasnijim već i smislenijim. Zamislite odgovarajućeg inženjera koji u vetroelektrani sa ručnog uređaja govori koje turbine je potrebno servisirati. Na njoj već postoje rezervni delovi, jer su problemi bili dijagnostikovani unapred. Ukoliko joj se pojavi neočekivani problem, isti ručni uređaj će joj omogućiti komuniciranje s kolegama na servisu, predočiće im ono što ona vidi, prenoseći podatke koji rade preko dijagnostike, a oni mogu da emituju video snimke koji će je voditi, korak po korak, kroz bilo kakav složen postupak, potreban da se mašine vrate u pogon. Njihova interakcija se dokumentuje i čuva u pretraživoj bazi podataka.
Let's stop and think about this for a minute, because this is a very important point. This new wave of innovation is fundamentally changing the way we work. And I know that many of you will be concerned about the impact that innovation might have on jobs. Unemployment is already high, and there is always a fear that innovation will destroy jobs. And innovation is disruptive. But let me stress two things here. First, we've already lived through mechanization of agriculture, automation of industry, and employment has gone up, because innovation is fundamentally about growth. It makes products more affordable. It creates new demand, new jobs. Second, there is a concern that in the future, there will only be room for engineers, data scientists, and other highly-specialized workers. And believe me, as an economist, I am also scared. But think about it: Just as a child can easily figure out how to operate an iPad, so a new generation of mobile and intuitive industrial applications will make life easier for workers of all skill levels. The worker of the future will be more like Iron Man than the Charlie Chaplin of "Modern Times." And to be sure, new high-skilled jobs will be created: mechanical digital engineers who understand both the machines and the data; managers who understand their industry and the analytics and can reorganize the business to take full advantage of the technology.
Zaustavimo se i promislimo o tome za minutu, jer je to vrlo važna stvar. Ovaj novi talas inovacija iz temelja menja način na koji radimo. I znam da će mnoge od vas zabrinuti mogući uticaj inovacije na poslove. Nezaposlenost je već visoka, a uvek postoji strah da će inovacija uništiti radna mesta. Inovacija je ta što remeti. No, dopustite mi da naglasim dve stvari. Prvo, već smo preživeli mehanizaciju poljoprivrede, automatizaciju industrije i zapošljavanje je poraslo, jer je inovacija vezana za rast. Ona čini proizvode pristupačnijim. Stvara novu potražnju, nova radna mesta. Drugo, postoji bojazan da će u budućnosti biti prostora samo za inženjere, naučnike podataka i druge visoko-specijalizovane radnike. Verujte mi da sam se kao ekonomista takođe uplašio. Ali razmislite: baš kao što dete može lako da shvati kako radi Ajped, tako će nova generacija mobilnih i intuitivnih industrijskih aplikacija olakšati život radnicima svih nivoa veštine. Radnik će u budućnosti biti više nalik "Ajron menu" nego Čarliju Čaplinu iz "Modernog vremena". I sigurno će se pojaviti novi visoko-kvalifikovani poslovi: mehanički digitalni inženjeri koji razumeju i mašine i podatke; menadžeri koji razumeju svoju industriju i analitiku i koji mogu da reorganizuju poslovanje i najviše pridobiju tehnologijom.
But now let's take a step back. Let's look at the big picture. There are people who argue that today's innovation is all about social media and silly games, with nowhere near the transformational power of the Industrial Revolution. They say that all the growth-enhancing innovations are behind us. And every time I hear this, I can't help thinking that even back in the Stone Age, there must have been a group of cavemen sitting around a fire one day looking very grumpy, and looking disapprovingly at another group of cavemen rolling a stone wheel up and down a hill, and saying to each other, "Yeah, this wheel thing, cool toy, sure, but compared to fire, it will have no impact. The big discoveries are all behind us." (Laughter)
No, vratimo se korak nazad. Pogledajmo širu sliku. Postoje ljudi koji tvrde da je današnja inovacija vezana za društvene medije i glupe igre, sa snagom preobražaja koja nije ni blizu onoj industrijske revolucije. Kažu da su sve inovacije za povećanje rasta iza nas. I svaki put kad to čujem, ne mogu se oteti dojmu da je čak i u kameno doba, morala postojati grupa pećinskih ljudi koji su sedeći oko vatre jednog dana, vrlo prgavog izgleda, gledali sa neodobravanjem na drugu grupu pećinskih ljudi koji su kotrljali kameni točak uz i niz breg, govoreći jedni drugima: "Da, taj točak jeste kul igračka, ali u poređenju sa vatrom, neće imati uticaja. Velika otkrića su iza nas ". (Smeh)
This technological revolution is as inspiring and transformational as anything we have ever seen. Human creativity and innovation have always propelled us forward. They've created jobs. They've raised living standards. They've made our lives healthier and more rewarding. And the new wave of innovation which is beginning to sweep through industry is no different. In the U.S. alone, the industrial Internet could raise average income by 25 to 40 percent over the next 15 years, boosting growth to rates we haven't seen in a long time, and adding between 10 and 15 trillion dollars to global GDP. That is the size of the entire U.S. economy today.
Ova tehnološka revolucija je jednako inspirativna i preobražajna kao bilo šta što smo ikada videli. Ljudska kreativnost i inovativnost su nas uvek gonile napred. Kreirale su radna mesta. Podigle su životne standarde. Učinile su naše živote zdravijim i vrednijim. A novi talas inovacija koji počinje da se širi industrijom nije drukčiji. Samo u SAD-u bi industrijski internet mogao podići prosečne prihode za 25 do 40 posto u idućih 15 godina, podsticanjem rasta po stopama neviđenim već dugo vremena, i dodavanjem između 10 i 15 biliona dolara globalnom BDP-u. To je iznos celokupne današnje američke privrede.
But this is not a foregone conclusion. We are just at the beginning of this transformation, and there will be barriers to break, obstacles to overcome. We will need to invest in the new technologies. We will need to adapt organizations and managerial practices. We will need a robust cybersecurity approach that protects sensitive information and intellectual property and safeguards critical infrastructure from cyberattacks. And the education system will need to evolve to ensure students are equipped with the right skills. It's not going to be easy, but it is going to be worth it. The economic challenges facing us are hard, but when I walk the factory floor, and I see how humans and brilliant machines are becoming interconnected, and I see the difference this makes in a hospital, in an airport, in a power generation plant, I'm not just optimistic, I'm enthusiastic. This new technological revolution is upon us.
Ali ovo nije preuranjen zaključak. Tek smo na početku ove transformacije i biće prepreka za probijanje, smetnji za savlađivanje. Moraćemo ulagati u nove tehnologije i prilagoditi organizacije i menadžerske prakse. Trebaće nam robustan pristup sajber obezbeđenju koji štiti osetljive informacije i intelektualnu svojinu i daje zaštitu kritičnoj infrastrukturi od sajber napada. I obrazovni sistem će morati da se razvija da bi opremio studente pravim veštinama. To neće biti lako, ali će biti toga vredno. Ekonomski izazovi s kojima se suočavamo su teški, ali dok prolazim fabrikom i vidim kako ljudi i brilijantne mašine postaju međusobno povezani i kakva je to razlika u bolnici, na aerodromu, u elektroenergetskom postrojenju, nisam samo optimističan, već i entuzijastičan. Ova nova tehnološka revolucija je pred nama.
So think about the future — it will be here soon enough.
Dakle, razmišljajte o budućnosti - biće ovde uskoro.
Thank you.
Hvala vam.
(Applause)
(Aplauz)