I'm not at all a cook. So don't fear, this is not going to be a cooking demonstration. But I do want to talk to you about something that I think is dear to all of us. And that is bread -- something which is as simple as our basic, most fundamental human staple. And I think few of us spend the day without eating bread in some form. Unless you're on one of these Californian low-carb diets, bread is standard. Bread is not only standard in the Western diet. As I will show to you, it is actually the mainstay of modern life.
我完全不是一个厨师。 所以用不着害怕,这不会变成一个饮食示范栏目。 但是我的确会谈谈一个 让我们都感到惊讶的事情。 那就是面包 -- 一个简单的就像 人类最基本最根本的主食。 我想我们中只有很少数人在今天 没有吃以面包为形式的食物。 除非你是那些加州低碳水化合物饮食者之一, 面包是标准的。 面包不仅仅在西方的饮食中是一个标准。 就像我要给你们展示的,它实际上 是现代生活的一个基石。
So I'm going to bake bread for you. In the meantime I'm also talking to you, so my life is going to be complicated. Bear with me. First of all, a little bit of audience participation. I have two loaves of bread here. One is a supermarket standard: white bread, pre-packaged, which I'm told is called a Wonderbread. (Laughter) I didn't know this word until I arrived. And this is more or less, a whole-meal, handmade, small-bakery loaf of bread. Here we go. I want to see a show of hands. Who prefers the whole-meal bread? Okay let me do this differently. Is anybody preferring the Wonderbread at all? (Laughter) I have two tentative male hands. (Laughter)
所以我要为你们烤一份面包。 同时呢,我也会跟你们聊聊天。 所以我的生活将变得复杂了。忍着点吧。 第一,一点点观众参与节目。 我这有两条面包。 一个是超市标准, 白面包,包装好的, 我被告知这叫做神奇面包。 (笑) 在我来之前我还不知道这个名词。 然后这个就是, 一个全麦,手工制作, 小面包房里的一条面包。 开始吧,我想看一场手上的表演。 谁更喜欢全麦面包? 好吧,让我换个方式说。有人喜欢神奇面包吗? (笑) 我得到了两个精明的男士的手。 (笑)
Okay, now the question is really, why is this so? And I think it is because we feel that this kind of bread really is about authenticity. It's about a traditional way of living. A way that is perhaps more real, more honest. This is an image from Tuscany, where we feel agriculture is still about beauty. And life is really, too. And this is about good taste, good traditions. Why do we have this image? Why do we feel that this is more true than this? Well I think it has a lot to do with our history. In the 10,000 years since agriculture evolved, most of our ancestors have actually been agriculturalists or they were closely related to food production. And we have this mythical image of how life was in rural areas in the past. Art has helped us to maintain that kind of image. It was a mythical past. Of course, the reality is quite different. These poor farmers working the land by hand or with their animals, had yield levels that are comparable to the poorest farmers today in West Africa. But we have, somehow, in the course of the last few centuries, or even decades, started to cultivate an image of a mythical, rural agricultural past.
好吧,现在真正的问题是, 为什么会这样? 我认为这是因为 我们认为这一类面包(全麦) 多多少少真实一点。 这就是传统的生活方式。 一种大约更真实,更诚恳的方法。 这是一副托斯卡纳的图片,一个让我们 感觉农业仍然是美丽的地方。 事实上,也是一样的。 而且这是好吃的,好的传统。 我们为什么会这么想? 我们为什么会认为这比另外一个更真实一点呢? 我认为这和我们的历史有很大的关系。 在农业发展的1万年里, 大多数我们的祖先实际上都是农业生产者 或者和食物生产有着紧密的联系。 然后我们有着这个神话般的印象 关于过去田园般的生活是怎么样的。 艺术帮助我们维持了这样的一种印象。 这是一个神话般的过去。 当然了,现实是十分不一样的。 这些可怜的农民们 在用自己的双手或靠动物在土地上耕耘, 他们的收入水平可以和 今年西非最贫困的地方相提并论。 但是,我们,不知道怎么样的, 在过去的几十上百年里 开始刻画出一幅 神话般的,田园般的农业历史印象。
It was only 200 years ago that we had the advent of the Industrial Revolution. And while I'm starting to make some bread for you here, it's very important to understand what that revolution did to us. It brought us power. It brought us mechanization, fertilizers. And it actually drove up our yields. And even sort of horrible things, like picking beans by hand, can now be done automatically. All that is a real, great improvement, as we shall see. Of course we also, particularly in the last decade, managed to envelop the world in a dense chain of supermarkets, in a chain of global trade. And it means that you now eat products, which can come from all around the world. That is the reality of our modern life. Now you may prefer this loaf of bread. Excuse my hands but this is how it is.
大约在两百年前 我们才有了工业革命的开端。 而且就在我要开始给你们做些面包的时候, 了解这个革命对我们有什么影响 是十分重要的。 它给我们带来了力量。它给我们带来了机械化,化肥。 而且它实际上提高了我们的产出。 而且像某些可怕的工作,如用手来剥豆子, 可以用自动化来代替。 所有的一切真的都是伟大的提高,我们也应该这样来看待。 当然我们也,特别是在前几十年里, 让我们的世界包裹在 一个超市链里, 一个全球贸易里。 而且它意味着,你们现在所吃的产品, 可以是来自世界各地。 这就是我们现代生活的现实。 现在也许你更喜欢这条面包。 请原谅我的手,但是现在它只能这样。
But actually the real relevant bread, historically, is this white Wonder loaf. And don't despise the white bread because it really, I think, symbolizes the fact that bread and food have become plentiful and affordable to all. And that is a feat that we are not really conscious of that much. But it has changed the world. This tiny bread that is tasteless in some ways and has a lot of problems has changed the world. So what is happening? Well the best way to look at that is to do a tiny bit of simplistic statistics. With the advent of the Industrial Revolution with modernization of agriculture in the last few decades, since the 1960s, food availability, per head, in this world, has increased by 25 percent. And the world population in the meantime has doubled. That means that we have now more food available than ever before in human history. And that is the result, directly, of being so successful at increasing the scale and volume of our production. And this is true, as you can see, for all countries, including the so-called developing countries.
但是一个真正贴切的面包, 从历史上发展角度讲,应该是这个白色的神奇面包。 而且不要瞧不起这个白面包 因为真的,我想, 它是象征着面包以及食物 已经是丰富的,而且大家都可以承受的。 而且这是我们大家 都没有察觉到的一个功绩。 但是它已经改变了世界。 这个吃起来有点无味, 并且有很多问题的面包 已经改变了世界。 所以,发生了什么? 解释这个的最好办法是做一点点的简单数据处理。 在工业革命的开端, 在农业的现代化 在过去几十年里,自从1960年来, 食品供应,每人,在这个世界里 已经上升了25%。 同时世界的人口数也升了一倍。 这意味这我们的食物供应 比以前人类历史还要多。 而结果是,直接的 让提升我们产品的规模和数量 是十分成功的。 而且这是真的,就像你所看到的,这是对所有的国家而言, 包括那些所谓的发展中国家。
What happened to our bread in the meantime? As food became plentiful here, it also meant that we were able to decrease the number of people working in agriculture to something like, on average, in the high income countries, five percent or less of the population. In the U.S. only one percent of the people are actually farmers. And it frees us all up to do other things -- to sit at TED meetings and not to worry about our food. That is, historically, a really unique situation. Never before has the responsibility to feed the world been in the hands of so few people. And never before have so many people been oblivious of that fact.
那同时我们的面包又怎么样了呢? 当这里的食物变的十分丰富的时候, 这也意味着我们可以降低 从事与农业有关的人员数量, 平均算下来,在高收入国家, 只占人口的5%或更少。 在美国,只有1%的人算的上是农民。 而这解放了我们去做其他的事情 -- 比如来TED开会而不用去担心我们的食物。 这是,历史性的,一个十分独特的情况。 喂养全世界的责任从未 掌握在如此少数人的手中。 而且从来没有这么多人 忘记了这个事实。
So as food became more plentiful, bread became cheaper. And as it became cheaper, bread manufacturers decided to add in all kinds of things. We added in more sugar. We add in raisins and oil and milk and all kinds of things to make bread, from a simple food into kind of a support for calories. And today, bread now is associated with obesity, which is very strange. It is the basic, most fundamental food that we've had in the last ten thousand years. Wheat is the most important crop -- the first crop we domesticated and the most important crop we still grow today.
所以当食物变的丰富的时候,面包变的更便宜了。 当面包变的便宜了,面包制造商决定加入各种各样的食物。 我们加入更多的糖。 我们加入葡萄干,油和牛奶, 以及所有的东西去做面包, 从一个简单的食物到一种卡路里的补给品。 现在今天,面包则代表着肥胖, 这很奇怪。 这是基础,最基础的食物, 我们在上一万年前都在食用它。 面粉是最重要的作物 -- 第一种我们培育的作物, 以及我们现在仍然在种植的重要植物。
But this is now this strange concoction of high calories. And that's not only true in this country, it is true all over the world. Bread has migrated to tropical countries, where the middle classes now eat French rolls and hamburgers and where the commuters find bread much more handy to use than rice or cassava. So bread has become from a main staple, a source of calories associated with obesity and also a source of modernity, of modern life. And the whiter the bread, in many countries, the better it is.
现在却奇怪的变成了 卡路里炮制品。 这不仅仅是在这个国家, 而是存在于全世界。 面包已经被移植热带国家 那里的中产阶层现在食用着法棍和汉堡包 那里的上班族 发现面包比米和木薯 要更方便。 所以面包已经从主要的主食, 一种卡路里的食物 变成肥胖的代名词, 也变成现代生活的 一种现代资源。 而且在很多国家,面包越白越好。
So this is the story of bread as we know it now. But of course the price of mass production has been that we moved large-scale. And large-scale has meant destruction of many of our landscapes, destruction of biodiversity -- still a lonely emu here in the Brazilian cerrado soybean fields. The costs have been tremendous -- water pollution, all the things you know about, destruction of our habitats.
所以现在我们知道了面包的故事。 但是当然,大规模生产的代价是 我们改变的都很大。 做大意味这我们的很多土地都被破坏了, 对生物多样化的破坏 -- 在巴西的cerrado(巴西一个区域)大豆田里 仍然只有一种鸸鹋。 代价是巨大的 -- 水污染了,你所知道的所有事情都破坏了我们的居住地。
What we need to do is to go back to understanding what our food is about. And this is where I have to query all of you. How many of you can actually tell wheat apart from other cereals? How many of you actually can make a bread in this way, without starting with a bread machine or just some kind of packaged flavor? Can you actually bake bread? Do you know how much a loaf of bread actually costs? We have become very removed from what our bread really is, which, again, evolutionarily speaking, is very strange. In fact not many of you know that our bread, of course, was not a European invention. It was invented by farmers in Iraq and Syria in particular. The tiny spike on the left to the center is actually the forefather of wheat. This is where it all comes from, and where these farmers who actually, ten thousand years ago, put us on the road of bread.
我们所需要做的事情是,退回去了解我们的食物是什么。 这就是我要来考考你们所有的人。 你们其中有多少人可以分辨小麦和其他的谷物? 你们其中有多少人可以不用开启面包机 不用其他的添加剂, 手工制作一个面包 你们可以烤面包吗?你们知道一条面包到底要花多少钱吗? 我们离面包真正是什么 越来越远了, 这再一次的,就进化来说, 是十分奇怪的。 事实上,我们其中很多人不知道 我们的面包,显然的,不是来自欧洲。 它是被伊拉克的农民所发明的 特别是在叙利亚。 在中间靠左的小尖尖 其实是小麦的祖先。 这是所有的开端。 这也是1万年前那些农民 带领我们走上面包之路的时候。
Now it is not surprising that with this massification and large-scale production, there is a counter-movement that emerged -- very much also here in California. The counter-movement says, "Let's go back to this. Let's go back to traditional farming. Let's go back to small-scale, to farmers' markets, small bakeries and all that." Wonderful. Don't we all agree? I certainly agree. I would love to go back to Tuscany to this kind of traditional setting, gastronomy, good food. But this is a fallacy. And the fallacy comes from idealizing a past that we have forgotten about.
现在这毫不惊奇的, 在大规模大产量的生产下, 这里掀起了一种反运动 -- 很多,加利福尼亚也有。 反运动说道,“让我们回到过去。 让我们回到传统的农业。 让我们回到小规模,农业市场, 小面包房和所有的一切。真奇妙。 我们都不同意吗?我当然同意。 我愿意回到托斯卡纳 回到这种传统的设置, 美食,和好食物。 但是这是一个谬论。 这个谬论来自于理想化一个 我们已经忘记的过去。
If we do this, if we want to stay with traditional small-scale farming we are going, actually, to relegate these poor farmers and their husbands -- among whom I have lived for many years, working without electricity and water, to try to improve their food production -- we relegate them to poverty. What they want are implements to increase their production: something to fertilize the soil, something to protect their crop and to bring it to a market. We cannot just think that small-scale is the solution to the world food problem. It's a luxury solution for us who can afford it, if you want to afford it. In fact we do not want this poor woman to work the land like this. If we say just small-scale production, as is the tendency here, to go back to local food means that a poor man like Hans Rosling cannot even eat oranges anymore because in Scandinavia we don't have oranges. So local food production is out. But also we do not want to relegate to poverty in the rural areas. And we do not want to relegate the urban poor to starvation. So we must find other solutions.
如果我们这样做,如果我们停留在传统的小型农业 我们会,就会,去贬低 这些农民和她们的老公。 他们和我们共同生活了很多年, 不用电力和水工作着,尝试提高他们的食物生产。 我们压制他们到贫穷。 他们所需要的是实现 提高他们的产量 -- 一些肥化他们土壤的东西, 一些保护他们作物的东西,然后运输他们的产品进入市场。 我们不能就去想小作坊 是全球食物问题的解决方法。 那是一个我们不能承受的奢侈解决方案, 如果你想去承受它。 事实上我们不想让贫穷的女人 在这样的土地上工作。 如果我们就说小作坊生产, 就像这里的趋势一样, 回到区域食物,意味着这个像汉斯罗素玲的贫穷女人 则不能再吃橙子了 因为北欧地区我们没有橙子。 所以区域食物被淘汰了。 但是同时我们也不想 去贬低农村地区的贫困。 而且我们也不想让 城市内的穷人受饿。 所以我们必须找到另外的解决方法。
One of our problems is that world food production needs to increase very rapidly -- doubling by about 2030. The main driver of that is actually meat. And meat consumption in Southeast Asia and China in particular is what drives the prices of cereals. That need for animal protein is going to continue. We can discuss alternatives in another talk, perhaps one day, but this is our driving force. So what can we do? Can we find a solution to produce more? Yes. But we need mechanization. And I'm making a real plea here. I feel so strongly that you cannot ask a small farmer to work the land and bend over to grow a hectare of rice, 150,000 times, just to plant a crop and weed it. You cannot ask people to work under these conditions. We need clever low-key mechanization that avoids the problems of the large-scale mechanization that we've had.
我们其中的一个问题是世界食物产量 必须快速增长 -- 在2030年要翻倍。 其中主要的推动力是肉类。 特别是东南亚和中国对肉的消耗 是对谷物价格影响的重要因素 对动物蛋白的需要会继续 也许在另一天的另一个演讲里我们可以谈谈可选择性。 但是这是我们的驱动力。 所以我们能怎么办? 我们可以找到生产更多的解决方法吗? 可以,但是我们需要机械化。 所以这里我要认个罪。 我强烈的感受到,你不能去要求一个农民 去田地里工作,去不辞劳苦的种一公顷大米, 弯上15万次腰,就是种植一种作物和施肥。 你不能要求这些人们在这样的条件下工作。 我们需要智能易操作机械化 那能避免一些大规模机械化所带来的问题。
So what can we do? We must feed three billion people in cities. We will not do that through small farmers' markets because these people have no small farmers' markets at their disposal. They have low incomes. And they benefit from cheap, affordable, safe and diverse food. That's what we must aim for in the next 20 to 30 years.
所以我们能做什么呢? 我们必须喂养城市中的30亿人。 我们不会通过小的农贸市场 因为这些人的处境中没有小农业市场。 他们是低收入。而且他们从 便宜的,可承受的,安全和多样化的食物中获利。 我们必须在以后20到30年达到那个目标
But yes there are some solutions. And let me just do one simple conceptual thing: if I plot science as a proxy for control of the production process and scale. What you see is that we've started in the left-hand corner with traditional agriculture, which was sort of small-scale and low-control. We've moved towards large-scale and very high control. What I want us to do is to keep up the science and even get more science in there but go to a kind of regional scale -- not just in terms of the scale of the fields, but in terms of the entire food network. That's where we should move. And the ultimate may be, but it doesn't apply to cereals, that we have entirely closed ecosystems -- the horticultural systems right at the top left-hand corner. So we need to think differently about agriculture science. Agriculture science for most people -- and there are not many farmers among you here -- has this name of being bad, of being about pollution, about large-scale, about the destruction of the environment. That is not necessary. We need more science and not less. And we need good science.
但是的确这里有一些解决方法。 让我来做一个简单的概念化的事情: 如果我假设科学是个常数 用来控制生产速度和规模。 你可以看到的是, 在左手边角我们开始了传统的农业, 那是一种小规模和低控制度的。 我们已经像大规模和高控制的方向前进。 我想让大家做的是,在这里保持这个科学甚至在这里去开阔更多的科学。 但是深入到一种区域范围 -- 不仅仅只着眼于土地, 但是就整个食物关系网而言。 那才是我们要达到的。 而且最终也许会,但是不会对谷物有影响, 我们有一整个封闭的生态系统 -- 在左手上方角里的园艺系统。 所以我们必须去用不同的角度来思考科学。 农业科学对大多数人来说,而且在坐的 没有太多农民, 有了一个不好的名声, 有了一个污染,大规模化, 破坏环境的名声。 那没有必要。 我们需要更多科学而不是更少,而且我们需要好的科学。
So what kind of science can we have? Well first of all I think we can do much better on the existing technologies. Use biotechnology where useful, particularly in pest and disease resistance. There are also robots, for example, who can recognize weeds with a resolution of half an inch. We have much cleverer irrigation. We do not need to spill the water if we don't want to. And we need to think very dispassionately about the comparative advantages of small-scale and large-scale. We need to think that land is multi-functional. It has different functions. There are different ways in which we must use it -- for residential, for nature, for agriculture purposes. And we also need to re-examine livestock. Go regional and go to urban food systems. I want to see fish ponds in parking lots and basements. I want to have horticulture and greenhouses on top of residential areas. And I want to use the energy that comes from those greenhouses and from the fermentation of crops to heat our residential areas. There are all kinds of ways we can do it. We cannot solve the world food problem by using biological agriculture. But we can do a lot more.
所以我们可以有什么样的科学呢? 好吧,我想第一个是 我们可以在现存的科技上做的更好。 用有用的生物技术, 特别是在对疾病和害虫的防御上。 这里也有机器人,比如说, 那些可以在半尺内 辨认种子的机器人。 我们有更聪明的灌溉系统。 我们如果不想可以不去洒水。 我们必须去十分冷静的思考 去比较 小规模的和大规模的优势。 我们必须想到土地是多功能的。 土地有不同的功能。 有着我们必须使用的不同的方法 -- 为居住,为自然,为农业目的。 我们也必须去重估畜牧业。 到地区里去,到城市里的食物系统里。 我想看到在停车场和地下室里的鱼塘。 我想看到在居住区域顶层的 园艺和温室。 而且我想用从温室里和 作物发酵所产生的能量 来供应居住区域的热能。 这里有我们所有可以运用的方法。 我们不能用生态农业来 解决世界粮食问题。 但是我们我们做的更多。
And the main thing that I would really ask all of you as you go back to your countries, or as you stay here: ask your government for an integrated food policy. Food is as important as energy, as security, as the environment. Everything is linked together. So we can do that. In fact in a densely populated country like the River Delta, where I live in the Netherlands, we have combined these functions. So this is not science fiction. We can combine things even in a social sense of making the rural areas more accessible to people -- to house, for example, the chronically sick. There is all kinds of things we can do.
其中一个主要的事情就是,我真的想让所有的在座的 当你们回到你们的国家里时,或当你们就在这里时, 去要求你们政府出台一个综合性的粮食政策。 食物和能量一样重要, 和安全一样重要,和环境一样重要。 所有的事情都是交融在一起的。 我们可以做到。实际上在一个密集人口的国家 像我住的荷兰的河流三角流域, 我们已经融合了这些功能。 所以这不是一个科学幻想。我们可以组合事情 甚至在社会上 让田园区域更能接近人民 -- 接近房间,比如,长期病患者。 我们可以做很多种事情。
But there is something you must do. It's not enough for me to say, "Let's get more bold science into agriculture." You must go back and think about your own food chain. Talk to farmers. When was the last time you went to a farm and talked to a farmer? Talk to people in restaurants. Understand where you are in the food chain, where your food comes from. Understand that you are part of this enormous chain of events. And that frees you up to do other things. And above all, to me, food is about respect. It's about understanding, when you eat, that there are also many people who are still in this situation, who are still struggling for their daily food. And the kind of simplistic solutions that we sometimes have, to think that doing everything by hand is going to be the solution, is really not morally justified. We need to help to lift them out of poverty. We need to make them proud of being a farmer because they allow us to survive. Never before, as I said, has the responsibility for food been in the hands of so few. And never before have we had the luxury of taking it for granted because it is now so cheap.
但是有些事情是你们必须去做的。光说是不够的, “让我们在农业科学里更大胆一些。” 你必须回去, 想想你自己的食物链。 和农民谈谈。你们上一次到农民那去 和农民聊天是什么时候? 和饭店里的人谈谈。 了解你在食物链的那个地方, 你的食物从何而来。 了解到你是这 不平凡的链条中的一部分。 而那会解放你去做其他的事情。 综上所述,就我而言,食物就是尊重。 那是有关于理解当你在吃饭时 还有很多人民仍然处在这种情况, 他们仍然在会他们的每日粮食所挣扎。 而那些所有我们时常会有的简单解决方式, 想到用手工来做所有的事情 就是解决问题的方法, 实际上从道德角度讲是不合理的。 我们需要帮助他们脱离贫穷。 我们需要让他们感到为做为一个农民而自豪 因为他们让我们生存。 从未,就像我说过的, 粮食的责任 掌握在如此少数人的手上。 而且从未,我们对我们奢侈 的存在如此的不感恩 因为现在它是如此的廉价。
And I think there is nobody else who has expressed better, to me, the idea that food, in the end, in our own tradition, is something holy. It's not about nutrients and calories. It's about sharing. It's about honesty. It's about identity. Who said this so beautifully was Mahatma Gandhi, 75 years ago, when he spoke about bread. He did not speak about rice, in India. He said, "To those who have to go without two meals a day, God can only appear as bread."
我想,这里没有人比我能更好的 来表达,粮食的重要性,最后, 在我们的传统里,粮食是神圣的。 它不仅仅是营养和卡路里。 它是一种分享。它是诚恳的。它是代表我们形象的。 圣雄甘地,在75年前在谈面包时 说道它是美丽的。 他提到的不是大米。在印度它说道, “对于那些每天只吃一餐的人来说, 面包就是上帝。”
And so as I'm finishing my bread here -- and I've been baking it, and I'll try not to burn my hands. Let me share with those of you here in the first row. Let me share some of the food with you. Take some of my bread. And as you eat it, and as you try it -- please come and stand up. Have some of it. I want you to think that every bite connects you to the past and the future: to these anonymous farmers, that first bred the first wheat varieties; and to the farmers of today, who've been making this. And you don't even know who they are. Every meal you eat contains ingredients from all across the world. Everything makes us so privileged, that we can eat this food, that we don't struggle every day. And that, I think, evolutionarily-speaking is unique. We've never had that before. So enjoy your bread. Eat it, and feel privileged. Thank you very much. (Applause)
所以就当我要在这里完成我的面包时 -- 同时我也烤好了。现在我要注意不要烫了我的手。 让我来分享 和你们坐在第一排的人分享。 让我和你们一起分享下食物。 拿我的一些面包。 就当你在吃它时,在你品尝它时 -- 请站起来。 尝尝。 我想让你们想象,你们的每一口都联系 到你的过去和未来, 联系到那些无名的农民, 联系到那第一个孕育的小麦品种, 和联系到今天的农民, 那些做出这些的农民。而且你甚至不知道他们是谁。 你吃的每一顿 包含着世界各地的调料。 那让我们被感荣幸, 我们今天不用挣扎的生活,而去吃每一粒粮食。 就那,我想到, 就进化来说是独特的。 我们从未如此, 那么享受你们的面包。 尝尝,感受到那份荣誉。 十分感谢。 (掌声)