I'm going to show you how terrorism actually interacts with our daily life. 15 years ago I received a phone call from a friend. At the time he was looking after the rights of political prisoners in Italian jails. He asked me if I wanted to interview the Red Brigades. Now, as many of you may remember, the Red Brigades was a terrorist, Marxist organization which was very active in Italy from the 1960s until the mid-1980s. As part of their strategy the Red Brigades never spoke with anybody, not even with their lawyers. They sat in silence through their trails, waving occasionally at family and friends.
我将要向你们展示恐怖主义 是如何渗入日常生活。 15年前,我接到一个朋友的电话。 昔时,他正为意大利监狱里的犯人的政治权利 而奔走。 他问我是否想去采访红色旅的成员。 正如你们所想 红色旅是恐怖组织、马克思主义组织, 于60年代至80年代中期 他们一度气焰嚣张。 (审判时)他们将沉默是金 贯彻于 于审判中,他们一致保持沉默 并时常向他们的家人及朋友挥手致意
In 1993 they declared the end of the armed struggle. And they drew a list of people with whom they would talk, and tell their story. And I was one of those people. When I asked my friend why the Red Brigades want to talk to me, he said that the female members of the organization had actually supported my name. In particular, one person had put it forward. She was my childhood friend. She had joined the Red Brigades and became a leader of the organization.
于1993年,这场武装斗争最终被结束了。 不过他们却愿接受某一群人的采访 以讲述他们的故事。 我就是其中之一。 而我则询问我的朋友,他们为何会想到我? 他回答道是该组织里的女性成员们 提议我的名字。 特别是由一位女成员提出的。 她曾是我儿时好友。 然而她加入了红色旅 且成为其中的领导人物。
Naturally, I didn't know that until the day she was arrested. In fact, I read it in the newspaper. At the time of the phone call I just had a baby, I successfully completed a management buyout to the company I was working with, and the last thing I wanted to do was to go back home and touring the high-security prisons. But this is exactly what I did because I wanted to know what had turned my best friend into a terrorist, and why she'd never tried to recruit me. (Laughter) (Applause)
直到她被捕的那天 我才知道她是红色旅的成员。 我实际是从报纸中才知道。 在我接到电话时, 我刚刚有了一个小孩, 适时,我成功收购了 我所在的公司, 当时我最不想做的就是回到家里 参观被严密守卫的监狱。 我也得偿夙愿, 以便了解 我最好的朋友 为何会成为一名恐怖分子, 却偏偏没找上我。 (笑声) (鼓掌)
So, this is exactly what I did. Now, I found the answer very quickly. I actually had failed the psychological profiling of a terrorist. The center committee of the Red Brigades had judged me too single-minded and too opinionated to become a good terrorist. My friend, on the other hand, she was a good terrorist because she was very good at following orders. She also embraced violence. Because she believed that the only way to unblock what, at the time, was known as a blocked democracy, Italy, a country run by the same party for 35 years was the arms struggle.
因此我如愿以偿地去了。 我瞬时就知悉了答案。 由于我的心理素质 使我不适合成为一名恐怖分子。 红色旅的中央委员会 认为我是一根筋且自以为是 因此不是做恐怖分子的料。 相反,我的朋友却是一位适合做恐怖分子的人 因为她会遵守上级命令。 何况她还信奉暴力。 她认为只有通过 武装斗争 才能打破意大利的封闭民主, 当时,意大利已被同一政党 统治了35年。
At the same time, while I was interviewing the Red Brigades, I also discovered that their life was not ruled by politics or ideology, but actually was ruled by economics. They were constantly short of cash. They were constantly searching for cash. Now, contrary to what many people believe, terrorism is actually a very expensive business. I'll give you an idea. In the 1970s, the turnover of the Red Brigades on a yearly basis was seven million dollars. This is roughly between 100 and 150 million, today.
同一时间,当我在采访红色旅的成员时, 我发觉,支配他们的 不是政治或意识形态, 不料却是经济。 他们长年地缺乏金钱。 他们长年地搜刮金钱。 与很多人的认识大相迳庭, 恐怖主义是一项十分昂贵的生意。 举一个例子说。 在70年代,红色旅 每年的营业额大约是 七百万美元。 换算成现在的购买力, 这大约是1亿到1.5亿之间。
Now, you know, if you live underground it's really hard to produce this amount of money. But this also explains why, when I was interviewing the Red Brigades, and then, later on, other arms organizations, including members of al-Zarqawi group in the Middle East, everybody was extremely reluctant to talk about ideology, or politics. Because they had no idea. The political vision of a terrorist organization is decided by the leadership, which, generally, is never more than five to seven people. All the others do, day in and day out, is search for money.
正如你们所知,地下工作者 很难赚得那么多钱。 只是这也解释了当我采访红色旅的成员时, 以及随后采访其他武装组织的成员时, 如中东的扎卡维组织成员时, 他们都抗拒回答有关 意思形态或政治的问题。 因为他们对这些都一无所知。 一个恐怖组织的政治目的 都是由首领们决定, 这群人一般都只有五至七人。 其他成员都在 日夜搜刮金钱。
Once, for example, I was interviewing this part-timer from the Red Brigades. It was a psychiatrist. He loved sailing. He was a really keen sailor. And he had this beautiful boat. And he told me that the best time of his life was when he was a member of the Red Brigades and he went sailing, every summer, back and forth from Lebanon, where he would pick up Soviet weapons from the PLO, and then carry them all the way to Sardinia where the other arms organization from Europe would go and take their share of the arms. For that service the Red Brigades were actually paid a fee, which went to fund their organization.
例如,有一次当我采访 一位红色旅的临时成员。 他是一位精神病医生。他热爱开船。 他是一位热情洋溢的水手。何况他还有一艘出色的航船。 因此他告诉我他一生中最美好的时光 是他还是一名红色旅的成员时, 每年夏天,他都会航行至 黎巴嫩,以从巴解组织 接取来自苏联的武器, 然后运送至撒丁岛, 欧洲其他的武装组织 都会前往那里分赃。 不过红色旅会从中提成, 这笔钱就成为他们组织的基金。
So, because I am a trained economist and I think in economic terms, all of the sudden I thought, maybe there is something here. Maybe there is a link, a commercial link, between one organization and another one. But it was only when I interviewed Mario Moretti, the head of the Red Brigades, the man who kidnapped and killed Aldo Moro, Italian former prime minister, that I finally realized that terrorism is actually business. I was having lunch with him in a high-security prison in Italy. And as we were eating, I had the distinct feeling that I was back in the city of London, having lunch with a fellow banker or an economist. This guy thought in the same way I did.
由于我是一名经济学家 所以我会从经济学角度进行思考, 于那一瞬间我想到 在这其中或许会有什么奥妙。 或许会有一条链接,一条商业链接, 以联系各个组织。 可是直到我采访马里奥·莫雷蒂, 红色旅的首脑, 他策划绑架并杀死莫罗, 他是前意大利总理, 我终于意识到 恐怖主义实际上是一项生意。 我和他在一间意大利监狱里 共进午餐。 当我们正在进餐时, 我仿佛感觉到 我现在是在伦敦, 同一名银行家或经济学家一起吃午餐。 这人的想法和居然我一摸一样。
So, I decided that I wanted to investigate the economics of terrorism. Naturally, nobody wanted to fund my research. In fact, I think many people thought that I was a bit crazy. You know, that woman that goes around to foundations asking for money, thinking about the economics of terrorism. So, in the end, I took a decision that, in retrospect, did change my life. I sold my company, and funded the research myself.
因此我决定要探索恐怖主义经济。 固然没有人会赞助我。 事实上,很多人都认为我疯了。 你们想象一下,有一位女士每天奔走于各个基金会, 寻求赞助,以研究恐怖主义经济。 最终,我决定, 回想起来,这改变了我的一生, 我变卖了我的公司, 以便供我研究这个项目。
And what I discovered is this parallel reality, another international economic system, which runs parallel to our own, which has been created by arms organizations since the end of World War II. And what is even more shocking is that this system has followed, step by step, the evolution of our own system, of our Western capitalism. And there are three main stages. The first one is the state sponsor of terrorism.
是故,我发掘出了 一个平行的社会, 另一个国际经济体系, 和明面上的同时发展, 它是由武装组织们建立的, 大概建立于二战结束时。 岂料,更使我震惊的是, 这个体系 是紧紧跟随着我们自己的体系 进化历程的, 这个由西方资本主义支撑的体系。 其中有三个主要阶段。 第一阶段,国家资助的恐怖主义。
The second one is the privatization of terrorism. And the third, of course, is the globalization of terrorism. So, state sponsor of terrorism, feature of the Cold War. This is when the two superpowers were fighting a war by proxy, along the periphery of the sphere of influence, fully funding arms organizations. A mix of legal and illegal activities is used. So, the link between crime and terror is established very early on.
第二阶段,恐怖主义的私有化。 第三阶段,恐怖主义的全球化。 国家资助的恐怖主义, 是冷战的产物。 昔日,两个超级大国 在明争暗斗, 于他们斗争的余威中, 各种武装组织建立起来了。 他们则是八仙过海各显神通。 所以,犯罪和恐怖活动 很早就建立关系。
And here is the best example, the Contras in Nicaragua, created by the CIA, legally funded by the U.S. Congress, illegally funded by the Reagan administration via covert operation, for example, the Iran-Contra Affair. Then comes the late 1970s, early '80s, and some groups successfully carry out the privatization of terrorism. So, they gain independence from the sponsor, and start funding themselves.
这里有个最好的例子, 尼加拉瓜的反抗局,是由中情局建立的, 中情局是通过美国国会合法成立的, 而反抗军则由里根政府暗中成立, 又例如,伊朗门事件。 到达80年代时, 一些成功地 私有化。 适时,他们就不再受制于他们的赞助者, 同时开始自力更生。
Now, again we see a mix of legal and illegal activities. So, Arafat used to get a percentage of the smuggling of hashish from Bekáa Valley, which is the valley between Lebanon and Syria. And the IRA, which control the private transportation system in Northern Ireland, did exactly the same thing. So, every single time that somebody got into a taxi in Belfast without knowing, actually, was funding the IRA.
我们再次见识到了他们的能耐。 阿拉法特一般都会从 由贝卡谷地来的走私大麻中 抽成,贝卡谷地处于黎巴嫩和叙利亚之间。 再如爱尔兰共和军,他们实际掌控着北爱尔兰的 私营运输系统,他们做了同阿拉法特一模一样的事。 每当有人在贝尔法斯特 坐的士时, 他们自己不知,他们是 在赞助爱尔兰共和军。
But the great change came, of course, with globalization and deregulation. This is when arms organization were able to link up, also financially, with each other. But above all, they started to do serious business with the world of crime. And together they money-laundered their dirty business through the same channel. This is when we see the birth of the transnational arms organization Al Qaeda. This is an organization that can raise money across border. But also that is able to carry out attacks in more than one country.
不料巨大的变化正在来临, 它们正是全球化和放松管制。 此时,各个武装组织可以相互联系, 当然也包括经济上的联系。 从此,黑色经济 开始成形。 他们都是用同样的渠道 进行洗钱。 跨国武装组织—基地组织就是 从中诞生的。 这个组织可以跨大陆的赚钱。 以至于他们能跨国 进行恐怖袭击。
Now, deregulation also brought back rogue economics. So what is rogue economics? Rogue economics is a force which is constantly lurking in the background of history. It comes back at times of great transformation, globalization being one of those transformations. It is at this times in which politics actually loses control of the economy, and the economy becomes a rogue force working against us. It has happened before in history. It has happened with the fall of the Roman Empire. It has happened with Industrial Revolution. And it actually happened again, with the fall of the Berlin wall.
然而,管制放松同时带回了 无赖经济。 什么是无赖经济呢? 无赖经济一直是雌伏于 历史的黑暗面。 每当巨变到来时它的身影就会出现, 固然全球化就是一场时代巨变。 当政治无法控制经济走向时, 经济力量就会转变成一种无赖力量 而这股力量 是与我们作对的。 回顾历史,我们经常可以看见其身影, 如,罗马帝国倾覆时, 和工业革命时。 当柏林墙倒塌时,它再一次显现了。
Now, I calculated how big was this international economic system composed by crime, terror, and illegal economy, before 9-11. And it is a staggering 1.5 trillion dollars. It is trillions, it's not billions. This is about twice the GDP of the United Kingdom, soon will be more, considering where this country is going. (Laughter)
我计算了下国际黑色经济 每年的 生产总值, 当然是在9-11前。 结果是令人震惊的1.5万亿美元。 注意是万亿,不是十亿。 这大概是英国每年GDP的双倍, 而这个差距会继续扩大, 考虑到这个国家正走下坡路。 (笑声)
Now, until 9-11, the bulk of all this money flew into the U.S. economy because the bulk of the money was denominated in U.S. dollars and the money laundering was taking place inside the United States. The entry point, of course, of most of this money were the off-shore facilities. So, this was a vital injection of cash into the U.S. economy. Now, when I went to look at the figures of the U.S. money supply, the U.S. money supply is the amount of dollars that the Federal Reserve prints every year in order to satisfy the increase in the demand for dollars, which, of course, reflects the growth of the economy.
直到9-11, 这笔钱大部分 都飞进了美国的经济 因为这笔钱大部分都是美元 而且他们是美国国内 进行洗钱的。 大部分的金钱都是通过离岸设施 进入美国的 因此这股生力军就此 进入美国的经济。 我前去查看了美金的供应数量, 美金的供应数量 正是每年美联储印出 的钞票数量, 他们的数量 是根据人们的需求而定, 这当然也反映出 经济的增长。
So, when I went to look at those figures, I noted that since the late 1960s a growing number of these dollars was actually leaving the United States, never to come back. These were money taken out in suitcases or in containers, in cash of course. These were money taken out by criminals and money launderers. These were money taken out to fund the growth of the terror, illegal and criminal economy. So, you see, what is the relationship?
当我去查看具体数量时,我察觉到自从 60年代末期以来 每年都有一些美金流出国外 并再未返还。 这些钱都通过纸币 装在皮箱或其它容器里带往国外。 这些钱都是被罪犯或者洗钱者带出的。 这些钱都贡献给 恐怖组织的发展, 以及黑色经济的增长。 现在,你们认识到这之间的联系吗?
The United States actually is a country that is the reserve currency of the world. What does it mean? That means that it has a privilege that other countries do not have. It can borrow against the total amount of dollars in circulation in the world. This privilege is called seigniorage. No other country can do that. All the other countries, for example the United Kingdom, can borrow only against the amount of money in circulation inside its own borders.
美国实际上是作为世界的 货币贮备基地。 这意味着什么?这意味着 美国将会拥有特权。 他们可以凭在世界流通 美元借钱。 这项特权就叫做铸币税。 其它国家都无法做到。 其它的国家,如,英国 只能凭借在国内流通的 货币借钱。
So, here is the implication of the relationship between the worlds of crime, terror, and illegal economy, and our economy. The U.S. in the 1990s was borrowing against the growth of the terror, illegal and criminal economy. This is how close we are with this world. Now, this situation changed, of course, after 9-11, because George Bush launched the War on Terror. Part of the War on Terror was the introduction of the Patriot Act. Now, many of you know that the Patriot Act is a legislation that greatly reduces the liberties of Americans in order to protect them against terrorism.
这就是世界经济体系和 黑色经济体系的关系。 美国于90年代 通过黑色经济的增长 以来借贷。 两个世界是极其靠近的。 在9-11之后,情况有所改变, 乔治布什发动了一场反恐战争。 这场战争是爱国者法案 颁布的序幕。 正如你们所知,爱国者法案 极大地缩减了 美国人的自由度,以图保护他们 及避免恐怖主义。
But there is a section of the Patriot Act which refers specifically to finance. And it is, in fact, an anti-money-laundering legislation. What the Patriot Act did was to prohibit U.S. bank, and U.S.-registered foreign banks from doing any businesses with off-shore facilities. It closed that door between the money laundering in dollars, and the U.S. economy. It also gave the U.S. monetary authorities the right to monitor any dollar transaction taking place anywhere in the world.
只是在爱国者法案中 有专门的针对金融的条款。 这同时也是一个反洗钱的法案。 爱国者法案中 明文禁止美国的银行 和在美国注册的外资银行 与离岸设施做任何交易。 这关闭了利用美国 经济进行洗钱作业的大门。 法案同时也赐予美国货币当局监管权利, 以监管世界上所有用 美元进行的交易。
Now, you can imagine what was the reaction of the international finance and banking. All the bankers said to their clients, "Get out of the dollars and go and invest somewhere else." Now, the Euro was a newly born currency of great opportunity for business, and, of course, for investment. And this is what people did. Nobody wants the U.S. monetary authority to check their relationship, to monitor their relationship with their clientele. The same thing happened, of course, in the world of crime and terror. People simply moved their money-laundering activities away from the United States into Europe.
你们可以想象世界金融和银行市场 的反应是什么了。 所有的银行从业者都对他们的 顾客说:“赶快抽出对美元的投资以向其它地方投资。” 欧元作为一新生的货币 是为商业投资提供了巨大的机会。 而人们也这样做了。 没有任何人希望美国货币当局 来监察他们 与他们顾客之间的关系。 对于地下世界, 也发生了同样事情。 他们只是把他们的洗钱活动 从美国移至 欧洲。
Why did this happen? This happened because the Patriot Act was a unilateral legislation. It was introduced only in the United States. And it was introduced only for the U.S. dollars. In Europe, a similar legislation was not introduced. So, within six months Europe became the epicenter of the money-laundering activities of the world. So, this is how incredible are the relationship between the world of crime and the world of terror, and our own life.
为什么会这样?因为爱国者法案 只是美国单方面颁布的。 这项法案只适用于美国国内。 同时也只适用于美元。 但是在欧洲,这样的法案 还尚未颁布。 欧洲仅用六个月的 时间,就成为了 世界洗钱作业的 中心。 这就是我们地上世界 与犯罪世界 及恐怖活动世界 之间的联系。
So, why did I tell you this story? I told you this story because you must understand that there is a world that goes well beyond the headlines of the newspapers, including the personal relationship that you have with friends and family. You got to question everything that is told to you, including what I just told you today. (Laughter) This is the only way for you to step into the dark side, and have a look at it. And believe me, it's going to be scary. It's going to be frightful, but it's going to enlighten you. And, above all, it's not going to be boring. (Laughter) (Applause)
我为什么要告诉你们这个故事? 我与你们分享这个故事 是想你们知道,这个世界中 还存在另一世界,而且远超报纸头条, 抑或你的与你朋友、家庭之间的 个人关系。 你需要对所有的事都持怀疑态度, 包括我今天所讲述的故事。 (笑声) 这是你能了解 世界黑暗面的唯一途径。 相信我, 这将会是可怕的。 虽然这是可怕的一件事,但同时它也会启发你。 最重要的一点就是,这很有趣。 (笑声) (鼓掌)