I'm going to show you how terrorism actually interacts with our daily life. 15 years ago I received a phone call from a friend. At the time he was looking after the rights of political prisoners in Italian jails. He asked me if I wanted to interview the Red Brigades. Now, as many of you may remember, the Red Brigades was a terrorist, Marxist organization which was very active in Italy from the 1960s until the mid-1980s. As part of their strategy the Red Brigades never spoke with anybody, not even with their lawyers. They sat in silence through their trails, waving occasionally at family and friends.
Pokazaću vam kako terorizam zapravo utiče na naš svakodnevni život. Pre petnaest godina prijatelj me je pozvao telefonom. U to vreme se bavio pravima političkih zatvorenika u italijanskim zatvorima. Pitao me je da li želim da obavim razgovor sa Crvenim brigadama. Dakle, kao što se mnogi od vas sećaju, Crvene brigade su bile teroristička, marksistička organizacija koja je bila veoma aktivna u Italiji od šezdesetih do sredine osamdesetih godina dvadesetog veka. deo njihove strategije, bilo je da Crvene brigade nikada ne razgovaraju ni sa kim, čak ni sa sopstvenim advokatima. Na suđenjima bi sedeli bez reči, povremeno bi mahnuli članovima porodice ili prijateljima.
In 1993 they declared the end of the armed struggle. And they drew a list of people with whom they would talk, and tell their story. And I was one of those people. When I asked my friend why the Red Brigades want to talk to me, he said that the female members of the organization had actually supported my name. In particular, one person had put it forward. She was my childhood friend. She had joined the Red Brigades and became a leader of the organization.
1993. su proglasili okončanje oružane borbe. I sastavili su listu ljudi sa kojima bi pristali da razgovaraju, i da ispričaju ono što žele. I ja sam bila jedna od tih ljudi. Kada sam prijatelja upitala zašto Crvene brigade žele da razgovarju sa mnom, odgovorio je da su me žene, članice organizacije zapravo podržale. Jedna me je od njih kandidovala. Bila je to moja prijateljica iz detinjstva. Ona se pridružila Crvenim brigadama i postala je jedna od vođa organizacije.
Naturally, I didn't know that until the day she was arrested. In fact, I read it in the newspaper. At the time of the phone call I just had a baby, I successfully completed a management buyout to the company I was working with, and the last thing I wanted to do was to go back home and touring the high-security prisons. But this is exactly what I did because I wanted to know what had turned my best friend into a terrorist, and why she'd never tried to recruit me. (Laughter) (Applause)
Naravno, ja o tome nisam ništa znala sve dok nije bila uhapšena. Zapravo, i to sam pročitala iz novina. U vreme kad su me pozvali upravo sam rodila dete i uspešno sam okončala preuzimanje kompanije sa kojom sam poslovala, i poslednje što sam želela bilo je da se vratim kući i da obilazim zatvore sa maksimalnim obezbeđenjem Ali sam upravo to uradila jer sam želela da otkrijem šta je to uticalo na moju prijateljicu i navelo je da postane terorista i zbog čega nikada nije pokušala da mene privoli da im se pridružim. (Smeh) (Aplauz)
So, this is exactly what I did. Now, I found the answer very quickly. I actually had failed the psychological profiling of a terrorist. The center committee of the Red Brigades had judged me too single-minded and too opinionated to become a good terrorist. My friend, on the other hand, she was a good terrorist because she was very good at following orders. She also embraced violence. Because she believed that the only way to unblock what, at the time, was known as a blocked democracy, Italy, a country run by the same party for 35 years was the arms struggle.
I tako, upravo to sam i uradila. Odgovor sam, doduše, dobila vrlo brzo. U stvari nisam odgovarala psihološkom profilu teroriste. Centralni komitet Crvenih brigada procenio je da sam isuviše jasno orijentisana i da zbog svojih ubeđenja nikada ne bih bila dobar terorista. Moja je prijateljica, s druge strane, bila dobar terorista, jer je veoma uspešno sledila naređenja. A isto tako je rado prihvatila nasilje. Jer je poverovala da nema drugog načina, da se otkoči ono što se u to vreme zvalo zakočenom demokratijom. Italija, zemlja kojom je vladala ista partija već 35 godina bila je poprište oružane borbe.
At the same time, while I was interviewing the Red Brigades, I also discovered that their life was not ruled by politics or ideology, but actually was ruled by economics. They were constantly short of cash. They were constantly searching for cash. Now, contrary to what many people believe, terrorism is actually a very expensive business. I'll give you an idea. In the 1970s, the turnover of the Red Brigades on a yearly basis was seven million dollars. This is roughly between 100 and 150 million, today.
Istovremeno, dok sam radila intervjue sa Crvenim brigadama, otkrila sam da njihovim životima ne upravlja ni politika ni ideologija, već da njima upravlja ekonomija. Neprestano im je nedostajalo gotovine. Neprestano su tragali za izvorima gotovine. Nasuprot onome što većina ljudi misli, terorizam je veoma skup poduhvat. Daću vam primer. Sedamdesetih godina, promet sredstava Crvenih brigada na godišnjem nivou bio je sedam miliona dolara. To je otprilike između 100 i 150 miliona danas.
Now, you know, if you live underground it's really hard to produce this amount of money. But this also explains why, when I was interviewing the Red Brigades, and then, later on, other arms organizations, including members of al-Zarqawi group in the Middle East, everybody was extremely reluctant to talk about ideology, or politics. Because they had no idea. The political vision of a terrorist organization is decided by the leadership, which, generally, is never more than five to seven people. All the others do, day in and day out, is search for money.
I sada, ako živite u ilegali veoma je teško doći do tolikog novca. Ali istovremeno to objašnjava zašto su svi, i Crvene brigade, a kasnije i druge oružane organizacije uključujući i članove al-Zarkavijeve grupe na Bliskom Istoku veoma nerado govorili o ideologiji ili o politici. Jer nisu imali šta da kažu. Politički stav terorističke organizacije određuje njeno vođstvo, koje, po pravilu, čini tek pet do sedam ljudi. Ostali, jedino što rade iz dana u dan, jeste da traže novac.
Once, for example, I was interviewing this part-timer from the Red Brigades. It was a psychiatrist. He loved sailing. He was a really keen sailor. And he had this beautiful boat. And he told me that the best time of his life was when he was a member of the Red Brigades and he went sailing, every summer, back and forth from Lebanon, where he would pick up Soviet weapons from the PLO, and then carry them all the way to Sardinia where the other arms organization from Europe would go and take their share of the arms. For that service the Red Brigades were actually paid a fee, which went to fund their organization.
Jednom prilikom, razgovarala sam sa jednim povremenim članom Crvenih brigada. On je bio psihijatar. Obožavao je jedrenje. Bio je strastveni moreplovac. I imao je prekrasan brod. I ispričao mi je da je najbolji period njegovog života bilo vreme kada je pripadao Crvenim brigadama jer je svakog leta jedrio do Libana i nazad gde bi preuzimao sovjetsko oružje od PLOa i prevozio bi ga do Sardinije gde bi drugi oružani pokreti Evrope dolazili i uzimali pripadajuće kontingente oružja. Za tu su uslugu Crvene brigade naplaćivale honorar, koji je odlazio u fond iz koga su se finansirale njihove aktivnosti.
So, because I am a trained economist and I think in economic terms, all of the sudden I thought, maybe there is something here. Maybe there is a link, a commercial link, between one organization and another one. But it was only when I interviewed Mario Moretti, the head of the Red Brigades, the man who kidnapped and killed Aldo Moro, Italian former prime minister, that I finally realized that terrorism is actually business. I was having lunch with him in a high-security prison in Italy. And as we were eating, I had the distinct feeling that I was back in the city of London, having lunch with a fellow banker or an economist. This guy thought in the same way I did.
Tako, budući da sam po struci ekonomista i stvari sagledavam iz tog ugla, u jednom trenutku sam pomislila da tu možda ima nečega. Možda postoji veza, kroz trgovinu, između ove organizacije i neke druge organizacije. Ali tek kada sam razgovarala sa Mariom Moretijem, liderom Crvenih brigada, čovekom koji je oteo i ubio Alda Mora, bivšeg italijanskog premijera, shvatila sam da je terorizam zapravo poslovni poduhvat. Sastali smo se u vreme ručka u zatvoru maksimalnog obezbeđenja u italiji. I dok smo ručali, imala sam osećaj da sam se opet našla u londonskom Sitiju, i da ručam sa kolegom bankarom ili ekonomistom. Ovaj je tip razmišljao na isti način kao ja.
So, I decided that I wanted to investigate the economics of terrorism. Naturally, nobody wanted to fund my research. In fact, I think many people thought that I was a bit crazy. You know, that woman that goes around to foundations asking for money, thinking about the economics of terrorism. So, in the end, I took a decision that, in retrospect, did change my life. I sold my company, and funded the research myself.
Tada sam odlučila da želim da se upustim u istraživanje ekonomije terorizma. Naravno, moje istraživanje niko nije hteo da finansira. U stvari, mislim da su mnogi ljudi smatrali da sam malo šašava. Znate, žena koja obilazi razne fondacije i traži novac, razmišljajući o ekonomiji terorizma. I tako sam na kraju donela odluku koja mi je, kad pogledam unazad, promenila život. Prodala sam svoju kompaniju, i sama sam finansirala istraživanje.
And what I discovered is this parallel reality, another international economic system, which runs parallel to our own, which has been created by arms organizations since the end of World War II. And what is even more shocking is that this system has followed, step by step, the evolution of our own system, of our Western capitalism. And there are three main stages. The first one is the state sponsor of terrorism.
I ono što sam otkrila jeste jedna paralelna stvarnost, alternativni ekonomski sistem, koji postoji paralelno sa ovim našim, koji su stvorili oružani pokreti po završetku II svetskog rata. A što je bilo još gore, taj je sistem u stopu pratio razvojne faze našeg ekonomskog sistema Zapadnog kapitalizma. I tu postoje tri glavna stadijuma. Prvi jeste terorizam pod patronatom države.
The second one is the privatization of terrorism. And the third, of course, is the globalization of terrorism. So, state sponsor of terrorism, feature of the Cold War. This is when the two superpowers were fighting a war by proxy, along the periphery of the sphere of influence, fully funding arms organizations. A mix of legal and illegal activities is used. So, the link between crime and terror is established very early on.
Drugi je privatizacija terorizma. I treći, naravno, jeste globalizacija terorizma. I tako je državni terorizam odlika perioda hladnog rata. U to vreme su se dve super-sile sukobljavale posredno u okršajima na linijama razdvajanja njihovih uticajnih sfera, gde su u potpunosti finansirale oružane pokrete. Služili su se i legalnim i ilegalnim aktivnostima. Pa je tako veza kriminala i terorizma uspostavljena već na samim počecima.
And here is the best example, the Contras in Nicaragua, created by the CIA, legally funded by the U.S. Congress, illegally funded by the Reagan administration via covert operation, for example, the Iran-Contra Affair. Then comes the late 1970s, early '80s, and some groups successfully carry out the privatization of terrorism. So, they gain independence from the sponsor, and start funding themselves.
Evo najboljeg primera, pobunjeničke grupe u Nikaragvi, koje je stvorila CIA, legalno je finansirao američki Kongres, ilegalno je finansirala Reganova uprava tajnim operacijama, na primer, kroz aferu Iran-Kontra. Potom dolaze kasne sedamdesete i rane osamdesete, i neke grupe uspešno izvode privatizaciju terorizma. I tako, nisu više zavisni od svojih sponzora, i počinju sami da se finansiraju.
Now, again we see a mix of legal and illegal activities. So, Arafat used to get a percentage of the smuggling of hashish from Bekáa Valley, which is the valley between Lebanon and Syria. And the IRA, which control the private transportation system in Northern Ireland, did exactly the same thing. So, every single time that somebody got into a taxi in Belfast without knowing, actually, was funding the IRA.
Tu se opet dešavaju i legalne i ilegalne aktivnosti. Arafat je uzimao procenat od šverca hašiša iz doline Beka, koja se nalazi između Libana i Sirije. IRA je kontrolisala privatni sistem prevoza putnika u Severnoj Irskoj i postupala je na isti način. Tako da je svaki put kada bi neko seo u taksi u Belfastu zapravo finansirao IRA a da toga nije bio svestan.
But the great change came, of course, with globalization and deregulation. This is when arms organization were able to link up, also financially, with each other. But above all, they started to do serious business with the world of crime. And together they money-laundered their dirty business through the same channel. This is when we see the birth of the transnational arms organization Al Qaeda. This is an organization that can raise money across border. But also that is able to carry out attacks in more than one country.
Ali došlo je do velikih promena, sa nastupanjem globalizacije i deregulacije. Tada su se militantne organizacije povezale, i finansijski. Ali, pre svega, započeli su ozbiljan biznis u svetu kriminala. I zajednički su prali novac stečen prljavim poslovima kroz iste kanale. Ovo je trenutak kada prisustvujemo rođenju transnacionalne militantne organizacije Al-Kaida. To je organizacija koja može da prikuplja novac bez obzira na granice. A takođe je u stanju da izvede napade u više od jedne zemlje.
Now, deregulation also brought back rogue economics. So what is rogue economics? Rogue economics is a force which is constantly lurking in the background of history. It comes back at times of great transformation, globalization being one of those transformations. It is at this times in which politics actually loses control of the economy, and the economy becomes a rogue force working against us. It has happened before in history. It has happened with the fall of the Roman Empire. It has happened with Industrial Revolution. And it actually happened again, with the fall of the Berlin wall.
Dakle, deregulacija je takođe vratila u igru ekonomiju odmetništva. Šta je ekonomija odmetništva? Ekonomija odmetništva je snaga koja neprestano kroz istoriju vreba negde iz drugog plana. Vraća se u vremenima velikih promena, a globalizacija jedna od tih promena. U takvim vremenima politika nema kontrolu nad ekonomijom, i ekonomija postaje odmetnuta sila koja radi protivno našem interesu. Nešto slično se događalo i ranije. Desilo se sa padom Rimskog carstva. Desilo se i sa nastupanjem industrijske revolucije. I opet se ponovilo sa padom berlinskog zida.
Now, I calculated how big was this international economic system composed by crime, terror, and illegal economy, before 9-11. And it is a staggering 1.5 trillion dollars. It is trillions, it's not billions. This is about twice the GDP of the United Kingdom, soon will be more, considering where this country is going. (Laughter)
Izračunala sam koliko je veliki ovaj međunarodni ekonomski sistem koji stvara kriminal, teror i ilegalna ekonomija, pre 11. septembra. I došla do brojke od 1,5 biliona dolara. Radi se o bilionima ne milijardama (bilion je 1000 milijardi). To je otprilike dva puta više od bruto nacionalnog dohotka Velike Britanije, a uskoro će biti još i više s obzirom na stanje u ovoj zemlji. (smeh)
Now, until 9-11, the bulk of all this money flew into the U.S. economy because the bulk of the money was denominated in U.S. dollars and the money laundering was taking place inside the United States. The entry point, of course, of most of this money were the off-shore facilities. So, this was a vital injection of cash into the U.S. economy. Now, when I went to look at the figures of the U.S. money supply, the U.S. money supply is the amount of dollars that the Federal Reserve prints every year in order to satisfy the increase in the demand for dollars, which, of course, reflects the growth of the economy.
Sve do 11. septembra, najveći deo ovog novca ulivao se u američku ekonomiju jer je najveći deo novca bio denominacije u američkim dolarima i pranje novca se dešavalo unutar Sjedinjenih Država. Mesto ulaska za najveću količinu ovog novca, naravno, bile su of-šor kompanije. Tako je to bila injekcija kapitala od vitalnog značaja za američku ekonomiju. Kad sam pregledala brojke koje se odnose na ukupna novčana sredstva Sjedinjenih Država to je ukupna suma novca u dolarima koju Savezne rezerve puštaju u opticaj svake godine da bi zadovoljili povećanu potražnju za dolarima, koja, naravno, odražava rast ekonomije.
So, when I went to look at those figures, I noted that since the late 1960s a growing number of these dollars was actually leaving the United States, never to come back. These were money taken out in suitcases or in containers, in cash of course. These were money taken out by criminals and money launderers. These were money taken out to fund the growth of the terror, illegal and criminal economy. So, you see, what is the relationship?
Kada sam pogledala te brojke, primetila sam da je od kasnih šezdesetih sve veća količina tih dolara napuštala teritorije Sjedinjenih Država, i nikada se nije vraćala. To je novac koji je iznet u koferima i kontejnerima, u gotovini, naravno. To je novac koji su iznosili kriminalci i perači novca. To je novac koji je iznošen da bi finansirao porast terorizma, ilegalne i kriminalne ekonomije. Dakle, da li primećujete u kakvom su odnosu?
The United States actually is a country that is the reserve currency of the world. What does it mean? That means that it has a privilege that other countries do not have. It can borrow against the total amount of dollars in circulation in the world. This privilege is called seigniorage. No other country can do that. All the other countries, for example the United Kingdom, can borrow only against the amount of money in circulation inside its own borders.
Sjedinjene Države su zapravo država koja predstavlja svetske državne rezerve. Šta to znači? To znači da one imaju privilegiju koju druge države nemaju. Količina novca koju mogu da pozajme računa se naspram ukupne količine dolara u opticaju u celom svetu. Ova se privilegija naziva monetarna zarada. Nijedna druga država to ne može. Sve druge države, na primer, Velika Britanija, mogu da pozajmljuju novac, samo spram iznosa koji je u opticaju unutar njihovih granica.
So, here is the implication of the relationship between the worlds of crime, terror, and illegal economy, and our economy. The U.S. in the 1990s was borrowing against the growth of the terror, illegal and criminal economy. This is how close we are with this world. Now, this situation changed, of course, after 9-11, because George Bush launched the War on Terror. Part of the War on Terror was the introduction of the Patriot Act. Now, many of you know that the Patriot Act is a legislation that greatly reduces the liberties of Americans in order to protect them against terrorism.
Ovde postoji implikacija da postoji odnos između sveta kriminala, terorizma, i ilegalne ekonomije i naše ekonomije. Sjedinjene Države su devedesetih godina pozajmljivale novac naspram rasta terorizma, ilegalne i kriminalne ekonomije. Toliko je sve blisko povezano u svetu. Situacija se dakako promenila posle 11. septembra, jer je Džordž Buš objavio rat protiv terorizma. Deo tog rata bilo je uvođenje niza zakona poznatih kao Patriotski akt. Mnogi od vas znaju da je Patriotski akt set zakona kojim se u velikoj meri redukuje sloboda Amerikanaca da bi ih se zaštitilo od terorizma.
But there is a section of the Patriot Act which refers specifically to finance. And it is, in fact, an anti-money-laundering legislation. What the Patriot Act did was to prohibit U.S. bank, and U.S.-registered foreign banks from doing any businesses with off-shore facilities. It closed that door between the money laundering in dollars, and the U.S. economy. It also gave the U.S. monetary authorities the right to monitor any dollar transaction taking place anywhere in the world.
Ali u Patriotskom aktu postoji odeljak koji se naročito odnosi na finansije. I zapravo i jeste zakonska regulativa protiv aktivnosti vezanih za pranje novca. Patriotski akt je omogućio da se američkim bankama kao i stranim bankama registrovanim na teritoriji Sjedinjenih Država zabrani da posluju sa of-šor kompanijama. Zatvorena su vrata između pranja novca u dolarima i američke ekonomije. Takođe je američkim monetarnim vlastima data mogućnost da prate sve transakcije u dolarima koje se odvijaju bilo gde u svetu.
Now, you can imagine what was the reaction of the international finance and banking. All the bankers said to their clients, "Get out of the dollars and go and invest somewhere else." Now, the Euro was a newly born currency of great opportunity for business, and, of course, for investment. And this is what people did. Nobody wants the U.S. monetary authority to check their relationship, to monitor their relationship with their clientele. The same thing happened, of course, in the world of crime and terror. People simply moved their money-laundering activities away from the United States into Europe.
Možete zamisliti reakciju međunarodnog finansijskog i bankarskog tržišta. Svi su bankari svojim klijentima savetovali "Oslobodite se dolara i idite da ulažete negde drugo." Euro je bila nova valuta koja je pružala izvanredne poslovne i, naravno, investicione, mogućnosti. I to su ljudi uradili. Niko nije želeo da američke monetarne vlasti proveravaju njihove odnose, da nadgledaju njihove odnose sa klijentelom. Ista se stvar ponovila, naravno, i u svetu kriminala i terorizma. Jednostavno su svoje aktivnosti u vezi sa pranjem novca premestili iz Sjedinjenih Država u Evropu.
Why did this happen? This happened because the Patriot Act was a unilateral legislation. It was introduced only in the United States. And it was introduced only for the U.S. dollars. In Europe, a similar legislation was not introduced. So, within six months Europe became the epicenter of the money-laundering activities of the world. So, this is how incredible are the relationship between the world of crime and the world of terror, and our own life.
Zašto se ovo dogodilo? Dogodilo se, jer je Patriotski akt bio unilateralni set zakona. Uveden je samo u Sjedinjenim Državama. I primenjivao se samo na američke dolare. U Evropi, neki takav set zakona nikada nije uveden. Tako je u roku od šest meseci Evropa postala epicentar pranja novca iz celog sveta. Do te mere su neverovatno povezani svet kriminala i svet terorizma i naši životi.
So, why did I tell you this story? I told you this story because you must understand that there is a world that goes well beyond the headlines of the newspapers, including the personal relationship that you have with friends and family. You got to question everything that is told to you, including what I just told you today. (Laughter) This is the only way for you to step into the dark side, and have a look at it. And believe me, it's going to be scary. It's going to be frightful, but it's going to enlighten you. And, above all, it's not going to be boring. (Laughter) (Applause)
Zašto sam vam sve ovo ispričala? Ispričala sam vam, jer treba da razumete da postoji svet koji seže dalje od naslova u novinama i dotiče vaše lične odnose sa prijateljima i porodicom. Treba da preispitujete sve što vam je ikada rečeno, uključujući i ovo što sam vam rekla ja danas. (smeh) To je jedini način da pređete na mračnu stranu i da je pogledate. I verujte mi, biće veoma zastrašujuće. Biće strašno, ali će vas prosvetliti. I iznad svega, neće biti dosadno. (smeh) (aplauz)