Jeg vil vise jer hvordan terrorisme virkelig interagerer med vores daglige liv. For 15 år siden modtog jeg et opkald, fra en ven. Han holdte han øje med rettighederne for politiske fangere i italienske fængsler. Han spurgte mig, om jeg ville lave et interview med "Den Røde Brigade." Som mange af jer måske husker, så var "Den Røde Brigade" en terroristisk og marxistisk organisation som var meget oppe i Italien fra 1960erne til midt i 1980erne. Som del af deres strategi talte "Den Røde Brigade" aldrig med nogen, end ikke deres egne advokater. De sad tavse igennem deres retsag, med lejlighedsvise vink til familie og venner.
I'm going to show you how terrorism actually interacts with our daily life. 15 years ago I received a phone call from a friend. At the time he was looking after the rights of political prisoners in Italian jails. He asked me if I wanted to interview the Red Brigades. Now, as many of you may remember, the Red Brigades was a terrorist, Marxist organization which was very active in Italy from the 1960s until the mid-1980s. As part of their strategy the Red Brigades never spoke with anybody, not even with their lawyers. They sat in silence through their trails, waving occasionally at family and friends.
I 1993 erklærede de afslutningen på væbnet kamp. Og de lavede en liste af folk de ville tale og fortælle deres historie til. Og jeg var en af de mennesker. Da jeg spurgte min ven, om hvorfor de ville tale med mig, svarede han, at de kvindelige medlemmer af denne organisation faktisk havde understøtte mit navn. Særdeles én person, havde fået den frem. Hun var min barndomsven. Hun havde tilsluttet sig "Den Røde Brigade" og blevet en leder i organisationen.
In 1993 they declared the end of the armed struggle. And they drew a list of people with whom they would talk, and tell their story. And I was one of those people. When I asked my friend why the Red Brigades want to talk to me, he said that the female members of the organization had actually supported my name. In particular, one person had put it forward. She was my childhood friend. She had joined the Red Brigades and became a leader of the organization.
Naturligvis vidste jeg ikke det før den dag hun blev arresteret. Faktisk så læste jeg det i avisen. På det tidspunkt opkaldet kom havde jeg lige fået en baby. Jeg gennemførte en erhvervelse af det firma som jeg arbejdede med, og det sidste jeg havde lyst til, var at gå hjem igen og gå rundt i højsikkerheds-fængsler. Men det var præcis hvad jeg gjorde fordi jeg ville vide hvad der havde fået min bedste veninde til at blive terrorist og hvorfor hun aldrig prøvede, at rekrutere mig. (Latter) (Bifald)
Naturally, I didn't know that until the day she was arrested. In fact, I read it in the newspaper. At the time of the phone call I just had a baby, I successfully completed a management buyout to the company I was working with, and the last thing I wanted to do was to go back home and touring the high-security prisons. But this is exactly what I did because I wanted to know what had turned my best friend into a terrorist, and why she'd never tried to recruit me. (Laughter) (Applause)
Så, det gjorde jeg. Jeg fandt hurtigt svaret. Jeg havde faktisk fejlet den psykologiske profilering af en terrorist. Hovedudvalget af "Den Røde Brigade" havde vurderet mig værende for målbevidst og for påståelig til at blive en god terrorist. Min veninde, på den anden side, hun var en god terrorist fordi hun var meget god til at følge ordre. Hun omfavnede også vold. Fordi hun troede at den eneste måde at fjerne blokeringen, som på tidspunktet, var kendt for at være et blokeret demokrati Italien, et land styret af det samme parti i 35 år var gruppens konflikt.
So, this is exactly what I did. Now, I found the answer very quickly. I actually had failed the psychological profiling of a terrorist. The center committee of the Red Brigades had judged me too single-minded and too opinionated to become a good terrorist. My friend, on the other hand, she was a good terrorist because she was very good at following orders. She also embraced violence. Because she believed that the only way to unblock what, at the time, was known as a blocked democracy, Italy, a country run by the same party for 35 years was the arms struggle.
På samme tid, mens jeg interviewede "Den Røde Brigade", opdagede jeg, at deres liv ikke var styret af politik eller ideologier, men faktisk var styret af økonomi. De var hele tiden i pengenød. De søgte konstant efter penge. I modsætning til hvad mange folk tror, så er terror faktisk en meget dyr forrretning. Lad mig give jeg en fornemmelse. I 1970erne, var omsætningen for "Den Røde Brigade" på årsbasis syv millioner dollars. Det er rundt regnet mellem 100 og 150 millioner idag.
At the same time, while I was interviewing the Red Brigades, I also discovered that their life was not ruled by politics or ideology, but actually was ruled by economics. They were constantly short of cash. They were constantly searching for cash. Now, contrary to what many people believe, terrorism is actually a very expensive business. I'll give you an idea. In the 1970s, the turnover of the Red Brigades on a yearly basis was seven million dollars. This is roughly between 100 and 150 million, today.
Som I nok ved, hvis I lever under jorden så er det meget svært at producere den mængde penge. Men det forklarer også hvorfor, at da jeg interviewede "Den Røde Brigade" og senere, andre væbnede organisationer, inklusiv medlemmer af al-Zarqawi gruppen i Mellemøsten, var alle ekstremt modstræbende for at tale om ideologier eller politik. Fordi de ingen anelse havde derom. Den politiske holdning i en terrororganisation er valgt af lederne, hvilket, generelt, ikke er mere end fem til syv personer. Alt hvad de andre laver, dag ud og dag ind er at lede efter penge.
Now, you know, if you live underground it's really hard to produce this amount of money. But this also explains why, when I was interviewing the Red Brigades, and then, later on, other arms organizations, including members of al-Zarqawi group in the Middle East, everybody was extremely reluctant to talk about ideology, or politics. Because they had no idea. The political vision of a terrorist organization is decided by the leadership, which, generally, is never more than five to seven people. All the others do, day in and day out, is search for money.
For eksempel, engang jeg interviewede en deltidsarbejder i "Den Røde Brigade." Det var en psykiater. Han elskede at sejle. Han var allerede en ivrig sejler. Og han havde denne smukke båd. Han fortalte, at den bedste tid i hans liv var da han var medlem af "Den Røde Brigade" og sejlede, hver sommer, frem og tilbage fra Libanon, hvor han skulle samle sovjetiske våben op fra PLO og sejle dem hele vejen til Sardinien, hvor de andre væbnede organisationer fra Europa, ville tage hen og tage deres del af våbene. For den ydelse fik "Den Røde Brigade" faktisk en betaling hvilket gik til at støtte organisationen.
Once, for example, I was interviewing this part-timer from the Red Brigades. It was a psychiatrist. He loved sailing. He was a really keen sailor. And he had this beautiful boat. And he told me that the best time of his life was when he was a member of the Red Brigades and he went sailing, every summer, back and forth from Lebanon, where he would pick up Soviet weapons from the PLO, and then carry them all the way to Sardinia where the other arms organization from Europe would go and take their share of the arms. For that service the Red Brigades were actually paid a fee, which went to fund their organization.
Fordi jeg er en erfaren økonom og tænker i økonomiske baner, tænkte jeg lige pludselig: måske er der noget her. Måske er der en kommerciel forbindelse, mellem en organisation og en anden. Men det var kun da jeg interviewede Mario Moretti, leder af "Den Røde Brigade" manden som kidnappede og dræbte Aldo Moro, Italiens forhenværende statsminister, at jeg endeligt opdagede at terrorisme faktisk er en forretning. Jeg spiste forkost med ham i et højsikkerhedsfængsel i Italien. Og mens vi spiste, havde jeg en særskilt følelse af at jeg var tilbage i London hvor jeg spiste frokost med en kollega eller en økonom. Denne fyr tænkte på samme måde som mig.
So, because I am a trained economist and I think in economic terms, all of the sudden I thought, maybe there is something here. Maybe there is a link, a commercial link, between one organization and another one. But it was only when I interviewed Mario Moretti, the head of the Red Brigades, the man who kidnapped and killed Aldo Moro, Italian former prime minister, that I finally realized that terrorism is actually business. I was having lunch with him in a high-security prison in Italy. And as we were eating, I had the distinct feeling that I was back in the city of London, having lunch with a fellow banker or an economist. This guy thought in the same way I did.
Så jeg besluttede, at jeg ville undersøge økonomien bag terrorisme. Naturligvis ville ingen betale for min undersøgelse. Jeg tror faktisk mange troede jeg var skør. Kvinden der går rundt til fonde og spørger om penge, mens hun tænker på økonomien bag terrorisme. Til sidst tog jeg en beslutning, som, set i bakspejlet, ændrede mit liv. Jeg solgte mit firma og finansierede undersøgelsen selv.
So, I decided that I wanted to investigate the economics of terrorism. Naturally, nobody wanted to fund my research. In fact, I think many people thought that I was a bit crazy. You know, that woman that goes around to foundations asking for money, thinking about the economics of terrorism. So, in the end, I took a decision that, in retrospect, did change my life. I sold my company, and funded the research myself.
Og hvad jeg opdagede var denne parallelle virkelighed, et andet internationalt økonomisk system, som fungere parallelt til vores eget, hvilket er blevet lavet af organisationer siden slutningen af 2. verdenskrig. Og endnu mere chokerende er at dette system, skridt efter skridt, har fulgt udviklingen af vores eget system, af vores vestlige kapitalisme. Og der er tre hovedfaser. Den første er at staten sponsorerer terror.
And what I discovered is this parallel reality, another international economic system, which runs parallel to our own, which has been created by arms organizations since the end of World War II. And what is even more shocking is that this system has followed, step by step, the evolution of our own system, of our Western capitalism. And there are three main stages. The first one is the state sponsor of terrorism.
Det andet er privatisering af terrorisme. Og det tredje er, selvfølgelig, globaliseringen af terrorisme. Statsstøtte til terrorisme var en funktion i den kolde krig. Det var da to supermagter kæmpede en stedfortræderkrig langs periferien af deres indflydelsessfære, fuldt støttende væbnede organisationer. En blanding af lovlig og ulovlig aktivitet blev brugt. Forbindelsen mellem forbrydelse og terror etableres meget tidligt.
The second one is the privatization of terrorism. And the third, of course, is the globalization of terrorism. So, state sponsor of terrorism, feature of the Cold War. This is when the two superpowers were fighting a war by proxy, along the periphery of the sphere of influence, fully funding arms organizations. A mix of legal and illegal activities is used. So, the link between crime and terror is established very early on.
Her er et af det bedste eksempel, "Contras" i Nicaragua, oprettet af CIA, lovligt støttet af den amerikanske kongres ulovligt støttet af Reagan-administrationen via dækoperationer, f.eks. Iran-Contra-skandalen. Så kommer de sene 1970ere, tidlig '80ere, og nogle grupper udfører, succesfuldt, privatisering af terrorisme. Så de opnår uafhængighed fra sponsorerne og begynder at finansierer sig selv.
And here is the best example, the Contras in Nicaragua, created by the CIA, legally funded by the U.S. Congress, illegally funded by the Reagan administration via covert operation, for example, the Iran-Contra Affair. Then comes the late 1970s, early '80s, and some groups successfully carry out the privatization of terrorism. So, they gain independence from the sponsor, and start funding themselves.
Igen ser man en blanding af lovlig og ulovlig aktiviteter. Arafat plejede at få en procentdel af hashsmuglingen fra Bekáa dalen, som er en dal mellem Libanon og Syrien. Og IRA, som styrede det private transportsystem i Nordirland, gjorde præcis det samme. Så hver eneste gang at nogen tog en taxi i Belfast, uden at vide det, støttede faktisk IRA.
Now, again we see a mix of legal and illegal activities. So, Arafat used to get a percentage of the smuggling of hashish from Bekáa Valley, which is the valley between Lebanon and Syria. And the IRA, which control the private transportation system in Northern Ireland, did exactly the same thing. So, every single time that somebody got into a taxi in Belfast without knowing, actually, was funding the IRA.
Men den store forandring kom, selvfølgelig, med globalisering og deregulering. Det er, når de væbnede organisationerne er i stand til at knytte, også finansielt, sig med hinanden. Men frem for alt, begyndte de at lave seriøs foretning med verdens kriminalitet. Og sammen hvidvaskede de deres beskidte foretning igennem den samme kanal. Det er her vi ser fødslen af den tværnationale væbnet organisation Al-Qaeda. Det er en organisation som kan rejse penge på tværs af grænserne. Men som også er i stand til at udføre angreb i mere end et land.
But the great change came, of course, with globalization and deregulation. This is when arms organization were able to link up, also financially, with each other. But above all, they started to do serious business with the world of crime. And together they money-laundered their dirty business through the same channel. This is when we see the birth of the transnational arms organization Al Qaeda. This is an organization that can raise money across border. But also that is able to carry out attacks in more than one country.
Deregulering bragte også slyngeløkonomien tilbage. Had er slyngeløkonomi? Slyngeløkonomi er en kraft som konstant lurer i baggrunden i historien. Det kommer tilbage på tidspunkter med stor forandring, globalisering er en af de forandringer. Det er på disse tidspunkter, at politikere faktisk mister kontrollen over økonomien og økonomien bliver en uberegnelig kraft som modarbejder os. Det er sket før. Det skete ved faldet af det romerske rige. Det skete med industrialiseringen. Og det skete faktisk igen, ved faldet af muren i Berlin.
Now, deregulation also brought back rogue economics. So what is rogue economics? Rogue economics is a force which is constantly lurking in the background of history. It comes back at times of great transformation, globalization being one of those transformations. It is at this times in which politics actually loses control of the economy, and the economy becomes a rogue force working against us. It has happened before in history. It has happened with the fall of the Roman Empire. It has happened with Industrial Revolution. And it actually happened again, with the fall of the Berlin wall.
Jeg har regnet på hvor stort dette internationale økonomiske system, etableret af kriminalitet, terror og ulovlig økonomi, var, før 9/11. Og det er svimlende 1,5 billioner dollars. Det er billioner, ikke milliarder. Det er omkring det dobbelte af Storbritaniens BNP, snart vil det være mere, i betragtning af hvor landet er på vej hen. (Latter)
Now, I calculated how big was this international economic system composed by crime, terror, and illegal economy, before 9-11. And it is a staggering 1.5 trillion dollars. It is trillions, it's not billions. This is about twice the GDP of the United Kingdom, soon will be more, considering where this country is going. (Laughter)
Indtil 9-11 fløj hovedparten af de penge ind i den amerikanske økonomi fordi størstedelen af pengene var denomineret i amerikanske dollars og hvidvaskningen tog sted i USA. Den fleste penge kom selvfølgelig fra aktiviteter udenfor USA. Det var en vital indsprøjtning af penge direkte ind i den amerikanske økonomi. Da jeg så ville se på talene af den amerikanske pengemængde, den amerikanske pengemængde er den mængde dollars som centralbanksystemet printer hvert år med henblik på at opfylde den øgede efterspørgsel på dollars, hvilket, selvfølgelig, afspejler væksten af økonomien.
Now, until 9-11, the bulk of all this money flew into the U.S. economy because the bulk of the money was denominated in U.S. dollars and the money laundering was taking place inside the United States. The entry point, of course, of most of this money were the off-shore facilities. So, this was a vital injection of cash into the U.S. economy. Now, when I went to look at the figures of the U.S. money supply, the U.S. money supply is the amount of dollars that the Federal Reserve prints every year in order to satisfy the increase in the demand for dollars, which, of course, reflects the growth of the economy.
Da jeg ville se på disse tal, lod jeg mærke til at siden de sene 1960ere havde et stigenede antal dollars faktisk forladt USA og aldrig kommet tilbage. De er penge, som blev taget ud i kufferter eller containers, kontanter selvfølgelig. Det var penge som var taget ud, af kriminelle og hvidvaskere. De penge var taget ud, for at støtte væksten af terror, ulovlig og kriminel økonomi. Kan du se hvordan det forholder sig?
So, when I went to look at those figures, I noted that since the late 1960s a growing number of these dollars was actually leaving the United States, never to come back. These were money taken out in suitcases or in containers, in cash of course. These were money taken out by criminals and money launderers. These were money taken out to fund the growth of the terror, illegal and criminal economy. So, you see, what is the relationship?
USA er i virkeligheden et land som er reservevaluta for verden. Hvad betyder det? Det betyder, at det har et privilegium som ingen andre lande har. Det kan låne imod den totale mængde dollars der cirkulerer i verdenen. Dette privilegie kaldes møntningsgevinst. Ingen andre lande kan gøre det. Alle andre lande, f.eks. England, kan kun låne penge op imod den mængde penge som cirkulerer indenfor egne grænser.
The United States actually is a country that is the reserve currency of the world. What does it mean? That means that it has a privilege that other countries do not have. It can borrow against the total amount of dollars in circulation in the world. This privilege is called seigniorage. No other country can do that. All the other countries, for example the United Kingdom, can borrow only against the amount of money in circulation inside its own borders.
Her er så konsekvenserne af forholdet mellem verdens kriminelle, terrorister og ulovlig økonomi, og vores økonomi. I 1990erne lånte USA imod væksten af terror, ulovlig og kriminel økonomi. Det er så tæt vi er med denne verden. Selvfølgelig ændrede det sig efter 9/11 fordi George Bush lancerede kampagnen "Kampen mod Terror." En del af "Kampen mod Terror" var introduktionen af "Patriot Act." Som mange af jer ved, er "Patriot Act" en lovgivning som reducerer friheden for amerikanerne, med henblik på at beskytte dem mod terrorisme.
So, here is the implication of the relationship between the worlds of crime, terror, and illegal economy, and our economy. The U.S. in the 1990s was borrowing against the growth of the terror, illegal and criminal economy. This is how close we are with this world. Now, this situation changed, of course, after 9-11, because George Bush launched the War on Terror. Part of the War on Terror was the introduction of the Patriot Act. Now, many of you know that the Patriot Act is a legislation that greatly reduces the liberties of Americans in order to protect them against terrorism.
Men der er et afsnit i "Patriot Act" som refererer specifikt til finans. Og det er, faktisk, en anti-hvidvasknings lov. Hvad "Patriot Act" gjorde, var at forbyde banker i USA og USA-registrerede udlandske banker i at lave foretning med offshore faciliteter. Det lukkede den dør mellem hvidvaskningen af dollars og den amerikanske økonomi. Det gav også USAs pengepolitiske myndigheder ret til at overvåge alle dollars transaktioner hvor som helst i verdenen.
But there is a section of the Patriot Act which refers specifically to finance. And it is, in fact, an anti-money-laundering legislation. What the Patriot Act did was to prohibit U.S. bank, and U.S.-registered foreign banks from doing any businesses with off-shore facilities. It closed that door between the money laundering in dollars, and the U.S. economy. It also gave the U.S. monetary authorities the right to monitor any dollar transaction taking place anywhere in the world.
Du kan vel forestille dig reaktionen fra den internationale finans- og bankverden. Alle bankmænd sagde til deres kunder: "Kom ud af dollaren, og invester i noget andet." Nu var euroen en nyfødt valuta, en glimrende mulighed for foretning, og selvfølgelig, investering. Og det var hvad folk gjorde. Ingen ville have USAs pengepolitiske myndighed til at se deres forhold, overvåge deres forhold med deres klienter. Det samme skete, selvfølgelig, i verdenen af kriminalitet og terror. Folk flyttede simpelthen deres hvisvasknings aktiviteter væk fra USA og ind i Europa.
Now, you can imagine what was the reaction of the international finance and banking. All the bankers said to their clients, "Get out of the dollars and go and invest somewhere else." Now, the Euro was a newly born currency of great opportunity for business, and, of course, for investment. And this is what people did. Nobody wants the U.S. monetary authority to check their relationship, to monitor their relationship with their clientele. The same thing happened, of course, in the world of crime and terror. People simply moved their money-laundering activities away from the United States into Europe.
Hvorfor skete det? Det skete fordi "Patriot Act" er en ensidig lovgivning. Det blev kun introduceret i USA. Og den blev kun indført på amerikanske dollars. I Europa, blev en lignende lovgivning ikke indført. Så, indenfor seks måneder var Europa blevet epicenter af hvidvaskningsaktiviteter fra hele verdenen. Det er så utroligt forholdet er mellem verdenen af kriminalitet, verdenen af terror og vores eget liv.
Why did this happen? This happened because the Patriot Act was a unilateral legislation. It was introduced only in the United States. And it was introduced only for the U.S. dollars. In Europe, a similar legislation was not introduced. So, within six months Europe became the epicenter of the money-laundering activities of the world. So, this is how incredible are the relationship between the world of crime and the world of terror, and our own life.
Hvorfor fortæller jeg jer denne historie? Jeg fortalte denne historie, for I må forstå, at der er en verden som går langt ud over overskifterne på aviserne, inklusiv de personlige forhold du har med venner og familie. Du skal stille spørgsmål, ved alt du bliver fortalt også hvad jeg har fortalt jer i dag. (Latter) Det er den eneste måde for jer til at træde ind i mørket og se på det. Og tro mig, det bliver meget skræmmende. Det bliver frygteligt, men det kommer til at oplyse dig. Og frem for alt, så bliver det ikke kedeligt. (Latter) (Bifald)
So, why did I tell you this story? I told you this story because you must understand that there is a world that goes well beyond the headlines of the newspapers, including the personal relationship that you have with friends and family. You got to question everything that is told to you, including what I just told you today. (Laughter) This is the only way for you to step into the dark side, and have a look at it. And believe me, it's going to be scary. It's going to be frightful, but it's going to enlighten you. And, above all, it's not going to be boring. (Laughter) (Applause)