We are at a remarkable moment in time. We face over the next two decades two fundamental transformations that will determine whether the next 100 years is the best of centuries or the worst of centuries.
我們現在正處於一個不凡的時代。 在未來的 20 年 將面對二個重大的轉變 這二個轉變, 將決定未來的 100 年, 是最好的世紀,還是最壞的世紀。
Let me illustrate with an example. I first visited Beijing 25 years ago to teach at the People's University of China. China was getting serious about market economics and about university education, so they decided to call in the foreign experts. Like most other people, I moved around Beijing by bicycle. Apart from dodging the occasional vehicle, it was a safe and easy way to get around. Cycling in Beijing now is a completely different prospect. The roads are jammed by cars and trucks. The air is dangerously polluted from the burning of coal and diesel. When I was there last in the spring, there was an advisory for people of my age — over 65 — to stay indoors and not move much.
我來舉個例子讓你了解, 我在 25 年前第一次造訪北京 在中國人民大學教書。 在大學教育學程裡, 中國漸漸重視市場經濟狀況, 所以他們決定尋求國外專家。 像其他大多數人一樣, 我騎著腳踏車逛北京市區。 除了閃躲少數的車輛外, 在這裡閒逛既安全又簡單。 現在在北京騎腳踏車 已經不再有相同的光景。 馬路擠滿汽車、卡車。 燃燒煤炭和柴油 空氣受到嚴重污染。 去年春天我住在北京時, 有一則建議是:像我這個年紀的人, 年紀超過 65 歲的人, 最好待在室內,不要到處走。
How did this come about? It came from the way in which Beijing has grown as a city. It's doubled over those 25 years, more than doubled, from 10 million to 20 million. It's become a sprawling urban area dependent on dirty fuel, dirty energy, particularly coal. China burns half the world's coal each year, and that's why, it is a key reason why, it is the world's largest emitter of greenhouse gases. At the same time, we have to recognize that in that period China has grown remarkably. It has become the world's second largest economy. Hundreds of millions of people have been lifted out of poverty. That's really important. But at the same time, the people of China are asking the question: What's the value of this growth if our cities are unlivable? They've analyzed, diagnosed that this is an unsustainable path of growth and development. China's planning to scale back coal. It's looking to build its cities in different ways.
怎麼會變成這樣? 這是因為 北京已經發展成為一個大城市。 這 25 年來, 人口數超過雙倍的成長, 從 1,000 萬人, 成長為 2,000 萬人。 北京成為一個無擴展計劃的都會區, 仰賴造成污染的燃料、能源, 尤其是煤炭。 每年,中國消耗 世界用量一半的煤炭, 這就是造成污染的主要原因了, 這裡是世界上最大的 溫室氣體排放區。 同時,我們也知道 中國在這段時間有驚人的成長, 成為世界第二大經濟體, 數以億計的人 已脫離貧困。 這是相當重要的因素, 同時, 中國人民問了一個問題: 如果我們的環境不適合人們居住, 那麼,經濟成長 又帶給我們什麼好處? 透過種種的分析與診斷, 這種經濟快速成長的腳步 無法長久持續下去。 中國正在計畫減少煤炭的使用量, 尋找以不同的方式 來建立屬於自己的城市,
Now, the growth of China is part of a dramatic change, fundamental change, in the structure of the world economy. Just 25 years ago, the developing countries, the poorer countries of the world, were, notwithstanding being the vast majority of the people, they accounted for only about a third of the world's output. Now it's more than half; 25 years from now, it will probably be two thirds from the countries that we saw 25 years ago as developing. That's a remarkable change. It means that most countries around the world, rich or poor, are going to be facing the two fundamental transformations that I want to talk about and highlight.
現在,成長的中國 在世界經濟結構中, 產生了戲劇性且重大的變化, 25 年前,世界上發展中的國家, 貧窮的國家, 儘管這些國家的人民佔大多數, 但這些人的產出 只佔世界總產出的 1/3。 現在這個數字已經超過一半; 25 年後, 這些在 25 年前被我們稱為 發展中國家的產出 將達到世界產出的 2/3。 這是個驚人的成長幅度, 也就是說,世界上大部分的國家, 不論富有或貧窮, 正面臨二個重要的轉變, 這是今天我要向各位說明及強調的。
Now, the first of these transformations is the basic structural change of the economies and societies that I've already begun to illustrate through the description of Beijing. Fifty percent now in urban areas. That's going to go to 70 percent in 2050. Over the next two decades, we'll see the demand for energy rise by 40 percent, and the growth in the economy and in the population is putting increasing pressure on our land, on our water and on our forests.
第一個轉變 是經濟及社會 基礎結構的改變 如我剛剛所提到的, 北京的這個例子。 50% 是城市地區了, 在 2050 年, 這個數據將提高到 70%。 在接下來的 20 年, 我們將看到, 人類對能源的需求, 將提高 40%, 經濟及人口的成長, 對於土地資源、水資源、 森林資源來說 將產生更大的壓力,
This is profound structural change. If we manage it in a negligent or a shortsighted way, we will create waste, pollution, congestion, destruction of land and forests. If we think of those three areas that I have illustrated with my numbers — cities, energy, land — if we manage all that badly, then the outlook for the lives and livelihoods of the people around the world would be poor and damaged. And more than that, the emissions of greenhouse gases would rise, with immense risks to our climate. Concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are already higher than they've been for millions of years. If we go on increasing those concentrations, we risk temperatures over the next century or so that we have not seen on this planet for tens of millions of years. We've been around as Homo sapiens — that's a rather generous definition, sapiens — for perhaps a quarter of a million years, a quarter of a million. We risk temperatures we haven't seen for tens of millions of years over a century. That would transform the relationship between human beings and the planet. It would lead to changing deserts, changing rivers, changing patterns of hurricanes, changing sea levels, hundreds of millions of people, perhaps billions of people who would have to move, and if we've learned anything from history, that means severe and extended conflict.
這結構的改變影響非常深遠, 如果我們忽視不予理會, 或目光短淺, 我們珍貴的土地及森林, 將陷入浪費、污染、 破壞、擁擠等問題。 如果我們對於我一再闡述的 城市、能源、土地這三個方面 處理不當, 那麼全世界的人類 在生活及生計上, 將會更加貧窮及受到損害。 更重要的是, 這會增加溫室氣體 排放到大氣層的量, 對氣候造成相當大危害。 大氣中 溫室氣體的濃度 已經高於百萬年來所累積的量, 如果我們繼續增加溫室氣體的濃度, 下一世紀左右地球增溫的風險, 將是我們千萬年來 在地球上前所未見的。 我們身為所謂的現代人, 現代人是一個相當寬廣的定義。 已經存在了大約 25 萬年,25 萬年。 然而我們在這一世紀增溫的風險, 卻是千萬年所未見。 人類與地球的關係 會因此改變。 暖化導致改變沙漠, 改變河流,改變颶風的形成, 改變海平面, 數億人, 甚至上兆的人必需遷移, 如果我們以史為鏡, 就知道這代表嚴重及持續的衝突,
And we couldn't just turn it off. You can't make a peace treaty with the planet. You can't negotiate with the laws of physics. You're in there. You're stuck. Those are the stakes we're playing for, and that's why we have to make this second transformation, the climate transformation, and move to a low-carbon economy. Now, the first of these transformations is going to happen anyway. We have to decide whether to do it well or badly, the economic, or structural, transformation. But the second of the transformations, the climate transformations, we have to decide to do. Those two transformations face us in the next two decades. The next two decades are decisive for what we have to do. Now, the more I've thought about this, the two transformations coming together, the more I've come to realize that this is an enormous opportunity. It's an opportunity which we can use or it's an opportunity which we can lose. And let me explain through those three key areas that I've identified: cities, energy and land. And let me start with cities. I've already described the problems of Beijing: pollution, congestion, waste and so on. Surely we recognize that in many of our cities around the world.
而且我們無法停止其發生。 你無法與地球簽訂和平條約, 無法與物理定律協商談判。 你住在地球上,沒有選擇的餘地。 這就是我們玩的賭注, 這也是為什麼, 我們要有第二種轉變, 氣候的轉變, 轉到低碳經濟, 現在,第一種轉變 已然發生, 我們得判斷要不要把它做好, 就是經濟或結構的轉變。 但是第二種轉變, 氣候轉變的問題, 我們必須下定決心去做。 這是我們未來的 20 年 要面對的兩個轉變, 未來的 20 年,是判斷我們 要做什麼的關鍵時刻。 除此之外,我還想到 把這兩個轉變結合在一起, 我了解越多, 越是認為這是一個大機會, 它是我們可以善加利用的機會, 或是錯過這個良機。 我透過城市、能源、土地三方面, 來向各位說明, 首先從城市開始, 我已針對北京的問題作了說明, 例如:污染、擁擠、廢料等問題, 可以確定的是這個問題存在於 世界上的許多城市。
Now, with cities, like life but particularly cities, you have to think ahead. The cities that are going to be built — and there are many, and many big ones — we have to think of how to design them in a compact way so we can save travel time and we can save energy. The cities that already are there, well established, we have to think about renewal and investment in them so that we can connect ourselves much better within those cities, and make it easier, encourage more people, to live closer to the center. We've got examples building around the world of the kinds of ways in which we can do that. The bus rapid transport system in Bogotá in Colombia is a very important case of how to move around safely and quickly in a non-polluting way in a city: very frequent buses, strongly protected routes, the same service, really, as an underground railway system, but much, much cheaper and can be done much more quickly, a brilliant idea in many more cities around the world that's developing.
城市,就像生涯一般, 你必須事先想清楚, 尚未建造的城市, 有很多大城市正在規劃中, 我們必須事先設計, 以簡潔的方式來設計城市 以建造一個可以節省行程, 節省能源的城市。 而已被建造的城市, 生根似地矗立著的, 我們必需思考重建、 投入時間及金錢在城市上, 使我們在城市裡, 交通更便捷,更容易連結, 鼓勵更多人居住在市中心附近。 世界上,以此方法建造的都市中, 有一個實例證明我們辦得到。 哥倫比亞波哥大的巴士捷運系統 對如何以不污染,安全又快速的方式 在城市裡移動,是非常重要的實例。 可以看到來回穿梭的巴士, 強烈保護的行駛路線,真的, 就像地下鐵路系統一般, 但比地鐵相對便宜很多, 而且更容易建造, 這個好點子,可以給 許多發展中國家的城市當參考。
Now, some things in cities do take time. Some things in cities can happen much more quickly. Take my hometown, London. In 1952, smog in London killed 4,000 people and badly damaged the lives of many, many more. And it happened all the time. For those of you live outside London in the U.K. will remember it used to be called The Smoke. That's the way London was. By regulating coal, within a few years the problems of smog were rapidly reduced. I remember the smogs well. When the visibility dropped to [less] than a few meters, they stopped the buses and I had to walk. This was the 1950s. I had to walk home three miles from school. Again, breathing was a hazardous activity. But it was changed. It was changed by a decision. Good decisions can bring good results, striking results, quickly.
城市裡,有些事做起來費時, 有些事可以快速得到結果。 以我的家鄉,倫敦來說, 在 1952 年,有 4,000 人死於煙霧 嚴重危及許多人的生命安全, 煙霧的現象一直存在。 那些住在倫敦郊區的人 對以往大煙印象非常深刻, 這是大家所認識的以前的倫敦, 最近這幾年來, 藉由管制煤炭的使用量, 煙霧的問題已快速地減少。 我對煙霧的印象非常深刻。 當能見度 低於數公尺, 公車會停駛,而我必須走路回家。 這是 1950 年代的倫敦。 我必須從學校走三英里路回家。 況且,吸入這些煙霧對身體有害。 但是這個情況已改變, 被一個決策所改變, 好的決策帶來好的結果, 快速產生驚人的結果。
We've seen more: In London, we've introduced the congestion charge, actually quite quickly and effectively, and we've seen great improvements in the bus system, and cleaned up the bus system. You can see that the two transformations I've described, the structural and the climate, come very much together. But we have to invest. We have to invest in our cities, and we have to invest wisely, and if we do, we'll see cleaner cities, quieter cities, safer cities, more attractive cities, more productive cities, and stronger community in those cities — public transport, recycling, reusing, all sorts of things that bring communities together. We can do that, but we have to think, we have to invest, we have to plan.
我們也知道另一件事, 進倫敦市區要付入城費以避免塞車, 實行這個制度後, 結果是既快速又有效率, 在巴士運輸系統及巴士清潔系統 我們已看到很大的進步。 從這裡你可以了解 我所描述的這二個轉變, 即城市結構和氣候的問題, 是交互產生, 我們必須投資, 投資在我們居住的城市, 而且是有智慧的投資, 如果我們這麼做, 我們將會看到更乾淨、 更安靜、更安全、 更迷人、更有生產力的城市, 城市間有更強的社區連結 - 大眾運輸系統、回收再利用系統, 各式各樣的系統,將社區連結起來。 我們可以這麼做, 但是我們必須思考, 我們必須投入,必須規劃,
Let me turn to energy. Now, energy over the last 25 years has increased by about 50 percent. Eighty percent of that comes from fossil fuels. Over the next 20 years, perhaps it will increase by another 40 percent or so. We have to invest strongly in energy, we have to use it much more efficiently, and we have to make it clean. We can see how to do that. Take the example of California. It would be in the top 10 countries in the world if it was independent. I don't want to start any — (Laughter) California's a big place. (Laughter) In the next five or six years, they will likely move from around 20 percent in renewables — wind, solar and so on — to over 33 percent, and that would bring California back to greenhouse gas emissions in 2020 to where they were in 1990, a period when the economy in California would more or less have doubled. That's a striking achievement. It shows what can be done. Not just California — the incoming government of India is planning to get solar technology to light up the homes of 400 million people who don't have electricity in India. They've set themselves a target of five years. I think they've got a good chance of doing that. We'll see, but what you're seeing now is people moving much more quickly. Four hundred million, more than the population of the United States. Those are the kinds of ambitions now people are setting themselves in terms of rapidity of change. Again, you can see good decisions can bring quick results, and those two transformations, the economy and the structure and the climate and the low carbon, are intimately intertwined. Do the first one well, the structural, the second one on the climate becomes much easier.
再來看能源。 能源的消耗在過去 25 年, 增加了 50%。 這當中,石化燃料的消耗量佔 80% 往後的 20 年, 石化能源的消耗量, 或許會再增加約 40%。 我們必須大力投資於能源, 讓能源的使用更有效率, 我們也必須有乾淨的能源。 我們很清楚該如何做, 就以加州來說, 如果加州獨立, 會是世界上前 10 大的國家。 我並不想引發任何政治辯論—— (笑聲) 加州有廣大的土地。 (注:有政客在加州提議分裂) (笑聲) 在之後 5 年或 6 年, 加州的風力、太陽能等 再生能源, 將由原來的 20% 提高到 33% 以上, 這會使加州於 2020 年的 溫室氣體排放量 降到 1990 年時的量, 而這段期間,加州的經濟 大約有 2 倍的成長, 那是很驚人的成就。 再再顯示,這可以達成。 不僅是加州, 新任印度政府也正在規劃 使用太陽能科技 以點亮 沒有電力可使用的 4 億印度人口的家。 他們設定 5 年的目標, 我想印度極有可能達到這個目標。 我們等著瞧,但你現在看到的是 人們行動的速度比以前快。 4 億印度人, 比美國人口還多, 他們野心勃勃 就快速變化而言, 印度人已準備好接受挑戰。 除此之外,你可看到 好的決策,可以快速產生結果, 而這二個轉變,經濟與城市結構, 氣候與低碳, 相互交織,相互影響。 把第一個,也就是城市結構做好, 那第二個要轉變氣候, 就會變得更加容易。
Look at land, land and particularly forests. Forests are the hosts to valuable plant and animal species. They hold water in the soil and they take carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere, fundamental to the tackling of climate change. But we're losing our forests. In the last decade, we've lost a forest area the size of Portugal, and much more has been degraded. But we're already seeing that we can do so much about that. We can recognize the problem, but we can also understand how to tackle it. In Brazil, the rate of deforestation has been reduced by 70 percent over the last 10 years. How? By involving local communities, investing in their agriculture and their economies, by monitoring more carefully, by enforcing the law more strictly.
看看土地, 特別是森林。 森林是 珍貴希有植物及各類動物的家。 森林可以保持水土 減少大氣層的二氧化碳, 是解決氣候變遷的基礎。 但我們正漸漸失去森林, 過去 10 年, 我們失去葡萄牙大小的森林, 而許多森林已受到破壞。 我們已經了解 我們可以為森林做許多事。 我們了解問題所在,同時也了解 如何去解決這個問題。 在巴西,過去 10 年, 森林砍伐率 已減少了 70% 巴西人是如何做到的? 他們結合當地居民, 在投資於農業及經濟時, 更加小心地謹慎地控管, 及更嚴格地執法。
And it's not just stopping deforestation. That's of course of first and fundamental importance, but it's also regrading degraded land, regenerating, rehabilitating degraded land. I first went to Ethiopia in 1967. It was desperately poor. In the following years, it suffered devastating famines and profoundly destructive social conflict. Over the last few years, actually more than a few, Ethiopia has been growing much more rapidly. It has ambitions to be a middle-income country 15 years from now and to be carbon neutral. Again, I think it's a strong ambition but it is a plausible one. You're seeing that commitment there. You're seeing what can be done. Ethiopia is investing in clean energy. It's working in the rehabilitation of land. In Humbo, in southwest Ethiopia, a wonderful project to plant trees on degraded land and work with local communities on sustainable forest management has led to big increases in living standards.
不僅是禁止砍伐森林而已。 這當然是當務之急,也是基本原則, 並且使已退化的土地再生, 讓退化的土地重建、復原。 我於 1967 年第一次到伊索比亞, 人民極為貧困。在接下來的幾年裡, 人民飽受飢荒之苦, 及嚴重性的社會衝突。 在過去的幾年中,其實不只幾年, 伊索比亞已快速發展。 在未年的 15 年有野心 成為中等收入的國家, 並成為碳中和的國家。 我想這的確是一個很大的目標, 卻是可以實現的。 因為達成目標的承諾就在你眼前。 你知道什麼事會被實踐。 因為伊索比亞投入清潔能源。 他們投入土地復原的工作。 他們在伊索比亞西南部的洪堡 成位一個非常好的專案, 在退化的土地上種樹, 與當地居民一起從事 永續森林管理的工作, 如此一來,大大提高人民生活水準。
So we can see, from Beijing to London, from California to India, from Brazil to Ethiopia, we do understand how to manage those two transformations, the structural and the climate. We do understand how to manage those well. And technology is changing very rapidly. I don't have to list all those things to an audience like this, but you can see the electric cars, you can see the batteries using new materials. You can see that we can manage remotely now our household appliances on our mobile phones when we're away. You can see better insulation. And there's much more coming.
我們可以看到,從北京到倫敦, 從加州到印度, 從巴西到伊索比亞, 我們確實明白 如何管理這二個轉變, 即城市結構及氣候。 我們的確知道如何好好管理。 科技技術日新月異, 我不需向你們 一一列舉, 以電動車來說, 使用新材料做電池。 當你不在家, 可以用手機遙控家電用品。 你可看到有更好的絕緣材料問市。 更多的科技產品上市。
But, and it's a big but, the world as a whole is moving far too slowly. We're not cutting emissions in the way we should. We're not managing those structural transformations as we can. The depth of understanding of the immense risks of climate change are not there yet. The depth of understanding of the attractiveness of what we can do is not there yet. We need political pressure to build. We need leaders to step up. We can have better growth, better climate, a better world. We can make, by managing those two transformations well, the next 100 years the best of centuries. If we make a mess of it, we, you and me, if we make a mess of it, if we don't manage those transformations properly, it will be, the next 100 years will be the worst of centuries. That's the major conclusion of the report on the economy and climate chaired by ex-President Felipe Calderón of Mexico, and I co-chaired that with him, and we handed that report yesterday here in New York, in the United Nations Building to the Secretary-General of the U.N., Ban Ki-moon. We know that we can do this.
但是,我要強調但是, 這整個世界 往前邁進的速度太慢。 我們並沒有用對的方法 減少溫室氣體的排放量, 我們也沒有用我們能做的方法 去轉變城市結構。 人們尚未深刻了解, 氣候變遷的巨大風險。 也尚未深刻了解 我們做這些對我們 有什麼好處。 我們要建立政治影響力。 需要領導者建立機制。 我們會有更好的發展、 更好的氣候、更美好的世界。 我們肯定做得到, 要把這二個轉變管理好 使下一個 100 年,成為最好的世紀。 如果我們把它搞砸了, 我們,包括你和我,搞砸了這件事, 沒有把這二個轉變管理好, 那麼,未來的 100 年, 將會是最慘的世紀。 以上是經濟和氣候 主要研究結果的報告, 由前墨西哥總統費利佩·卡爾德龍 和我共同主持的會議中提出, 昨天在紐約的聯合國大廈 提出該報告給 聯合國秘書長 潘基文。 我們知道我們可以這麼做。
Now, two weeks ago, I became a grandfather for the fourth time. Our daughter — (Baby cries) (Laughter) (Applause) — Our daughter gave birth to Rosa here in New York two weeks ago. Here are Helen and Rosa. (Applause) Two weeks old. Are we going to look our grandchildren in the eye and tell them that we understood the issues, that we recognized the dangers and the opportunities, and still we failed to act? Surely not. Let's make the next 100 years the best of centuries.
二週以前, 我的第 4 個孫子出生了, 我的女兒 (嬰兒哭聲)(笑聲)(掌聲) 二週以前,我女兒在紐約生下羅莎。 這是海倫和羅莎。 (掌聲) 出生二週的孫子。 難道我們要看著孫子的眼睛, 然後告訴孫子們, 我們已明白這些問題, 也了解危險及機會, 卻不身體力行? 當然不會,讓我們的下一個 100 年 成為最好的世紀。
(Applause)
(掌聲)