We are at a remarkable moment in time. We face over the next two decades two fundamental transformations that will determine whether the next 100 years is the best of centuries or the worst of centuries.
我们正处在一个关键时刻。 在下一个20年,我们面临两个重大变革, 这将决定下一个100年 是最美好的世纪,还是最糟糕的世纪。
Let me illustrate with an example. I first visited Beijing 25 years ago to teach at the People's University of China. China was getting serious about market economics and about university education, so they decided to call in the foreign experts. Like most other people, I moved around Beijing by bicycle. Apart from dodging the occasional vehicle, it was a safe and easy way to get around. Cycling in Beijing now is a completely different prospect. The roads are jammed by cars and trucks. The air is dangerously polluted from the burning of coal and diesel. When I was there last in the spring, there was an advisory for people of my age — over 65 — to stay indoors and not move much.
我举一个例子来阐述一下。 25年前我去了北京, 在中国人民大学教书。 那时中国正重视市场经济和大学教育的问题, 所以他们打算向国外专家求助。 像大多数人一样, 我骑自行车在北京游逛。 除了偶尔要躲一下其他车辆, 自行车出行既简单又快捷。 现在在北京骑自行车是完全不同的体验了。 轿车和卡车拥堵在路上, 因为燃烧煤炭和柴油,空气污染严重。 上一次去北京是一个春天, 有建议针对我这个年纪的人—— 超过65岁—— 留在室内,减少活动。
How did this come about? It came from the way in which Beijing has grown as a city. It's doubled over those 25 years, more than doubled, from 10 million to 20 million. It's become a sprawling urban area dependent on dirty fuel, dirty energy, particularly coal. China burns half the world's coal each year, and that's why, it is a key reason why, it is the world's largest emitter of greenhouse gases. At the same time, we have to recognize that in that period China has grown remarkably. It has become the world's second largest economy. Hundreds of millions of people have been lifted out of poverty. That's really important. But at the same time, the people of China are asking the question: What's the value of this growth if our cities are unlivable? They've analyzed, diagnosed that this is an unsustainable path of growth and development. China's planning to scale back coal. It's looking to build its cities in different ways.
如今这种状况是怎么产生的? 这种状况是由北京城市的发展方式导致的。 北京人口在过去25年的时间里, 翻了不止一番,从1千万增长到2千万。 北京正变成一个依赖不清洁的燃料、能源的城市, 煤炭首当其冲。 中国每年烧掉的煤占掉全世界的一半, 这是中国为何是世界上 排放温室气体最多的国家的重要原因。 与此同时,我们必须认识到, 在这段时期,中国取得了卓越的发展, 已经成为世界第二经济大国, 数以亿计的人民已摆脱贫困。 这是非常重要的。 但与此同时,中国人民在问: 如果城市变得不宜居,这样的发展有何意义? 他们已经研究并确信, 这不是一个可持续发展的路线。 中国正计划缩减煤炭使用规模, 正以不同的路线来发展城市。
Now, the growth of China is part of a dramatic change, fundamental change, in the structure of the world economy. Just 25 years ago, the developing countries, the poorer countries of the world, were, notwithstanding being the vast majority of the people, they accounted for only about a third of the world's output. Now it's more than half; 25 years from now, it will probably be two thirds from the countries that we saw 25 years ago as developing. That's a remarkable change. It means that most countries around the world, rich or poor, are going to be facing the two fundamental transformations that I want to talk about and highlight.
中国的发展是世界经济格局的 重要而深远的变革之一。 就在25年前,发展中国家, 世界上这些相对较贫困的国家, 尽管拥有世界上最多的人口, 它们只占了全世界产出的三分之一, 如今已超过一半了, 25年之后,会达到三分之二, 正是这些25年之前的发展中国家。 这真是一个不可思议的转变。 这意味着,世界上大部分国家, 无论是贫困的还是富裕的,都将面临这两个深刻的变革, 这两个变革就是我想谈论并强调的。 第一个变革是经济和社会基础结构的变化,
Now, the first of these transformations is the basic structural change of the economies and societies that I've already begun to illustrate through the description of Beijing. Fifty percent now in urban areas. That's going to go to 70 percent in 2050. Over the next two decades, we'll see the demand for energy rise by 40 percent, and the growth in the economy and in the population is putting increasing pressure on our land, on our water and on our forests.
这个变化在我谈及北京时就已开始说明了。 50%的人目前居住在城市, 到2050年,这一数字将达到70%。 未来的20年中, 对能源的需求将增长40%, 经济的发展和人口的增长 正对我们的土地、水源和森林施加越来越大的压力。
This is profound structural change. If we manage it in a negligent or a shortsighted way, we will create waste, pollution, congestion, destruction of land and forests. If we think of those three areas that I have illustrated with my numbers — cities, energy, land — if we manage all that badly, then the outlook for the lives and livelihoods of the people around the world would be poor and damaged. And more than that, the emissions of greenhouse gases would rise, with immense risks to our climate. Concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are already higher than they've been for millions of years. If we go on increasing those concentrations, we risk temperatures over the next century or so that we have not seen on this planet for tens of millions of years. We've been around as Homo sapiens — that's a rather generous definition, sapiens — for perhaps a quarter of a million years, a quarter of a million. We risk temperatures we haven't seen for tens of millions of years over a century. That would transform the relationship between human beings and the planet. It would lead to changing deserts, changing rivers, changing patterns of hurricanes, changing sea levels, hundreds of millions of people, perhaps billions of people who would have to move, and if we've learned anything from history, that means severe and extended conflict.
这是深刻的结构的变化。 如果我们忽视这一问题, 或目光短浅地看待这一问题, 土地和森林将被我们浪费、污染、破坏或变得拥堵。 考虑到我刚才用数字说明的 三方面——城市、能源、土地——的问题, 如果我们不予以善待, 那么人类以及地球上所有生物的处境都将不堪设想。 不仅如此, 温室气体的排放将会上升, 这将对气候带来巨大的威胁。 大气中温室气体的浓度, 已经是数百万年以来最高值。 如果浓度持续增加, 到下个世纪,地球的温度 会有达到数千万年来最高值的风险。 智人——或更宽泛的定义,现代人——时期, 大约25万年,是的,25万年。 在一个世纪内,我们将面临 数千万年来没遇到过的气温上升的风险。 这将改变人类和地球的关系, 这将改变沙漠, 改变河流,改变飓风的模式, 改变海平面高度, 数以亿计,甚至数以十亿计的人将不得不搬迁。 如果我们从历史中学到了点什么的话, 这意味着更严重和广泛的冲突矛盾。
And we couldn't just turn it off. You can't make a peace treaty with the planet. You can't negotiate with the laws of physics. You're in there. You're stuck. Those are the stakes we're playing for, and that's why we have to make this second transformation, the climate transformation, and move to a low-carbon economy. Now, the first of these transformations is going to happen anyway. We have to decide whether to do it well or badly, the economic, or structural, transformation. But the second of the transformations, the climate transformations, we have to decide to do. Those two transformations face us in the next two decades. The next two decades are decisive for what we have to do. Now, the more I've thought about this, the two transformations coming together, the more I've come to realize that this is an enormous opportunity. It's an opportunity which we can use or it's an opportunity which we can lose. And let me explain through those three key areas that I've identified: cities, energy and land. And let me start with cities. I've already described the problems of Beijing: pollution, congestion, waste and so on. Surely we recognize that in many of our cities around the world.
我们不能简单地一关了之, 不可能跟地球签订一个和平协议, 不能跟物理定律讨价还价。 身处其中,别无他法。 刚才所描述的正是我们行为的赌注, 正因此,我们不得不进行第二项变革, 即气候的转变,并转向低碳经济。 第一项变革,即经济和社会结构的变革, 迟早都会发生, 我们能做的只是决定它是往好还是坏的方向发展。 但这第二项变革, 即气候的转变,需要我们决定去做。 未来的二十年,我们将面临这两项变革。 我们决定要做的事情,对未来二十年会有决定性影响。 我越想这个问题, 即两项变革一起到来, 我越觉得这是一个巨大的机会。 我们要么把握住这个机会,要么错失。 我来解释刚才提到的三个关键方面:城市、能源和土地。 从城市开始吧。 我已经描述北京存在的问题了: 污染、拥堵、浪费等等。 当然,世界范围内很多城市都存在这些问题。 如今,对于城市的发展,你必须放远目光。
Now, with cities, like life but particularly cities, you have to think ahead. The cities that are going to be built — and there are many, and many big ones — we have to think of how to design them in a compact way so we can save travel time and we can save energy. The cities that already are there, well established, we have to think about renewal and investment in them so that we can connect ourselves much better within those cities, and make it easier, encourage more people, to live closer to the center. We've got examples building around the world of the kinds of ways in which we can do that. The bus rapid transport system in Bogotá in Colombia is a very important case of how to move around safely and quickly in a non-polluting way in a city: very frequent buses, strongly protected routes, the same service, really, as an underground railway system, but much, much cheaper and can be done much more quickly, a brilliant idea in many more cities around the world that's developing.
有很多很多大城市将在未来建成, 我们必须考虑如何以更紧凑的方式来规划城市, 这样我们就能节省花在路上的时间,并节约能源。 对于那些已经发展起来的城市, 我们需要考虑如何城市重塑,如何投资, 这样我们就能更和谐地在城市居住, 生活得以简单化, 让更多的人在靠近城中心的地方居住。 这种理念的实践, 我们在世界范围内已看到很多例子。 哥伦比亚的波哥大市的快速公交系统是一个非常好的例子, 展现了公共交通如何在城市内实现安全、快捷、无污染: 高频次公交车、 全封闭专用道, 这真的跟地铁是一样的服务, 但便宜得多。 而且这项政策可在短时间内实现。 目前世界上很多城市都在仿效这个绝佳的主意。
Now, some things in cities do take time. Some things in cities can happen much more quickly. Take my hometown, London. In 1952, smog in London killed 4,000 people and badly damaged the lives of many, many more. And it happened all the time. For those of you live outside London in the U.K. will remember it used to be called The Smoke. That's the way London was. By regulating coal, within a few years the problems of smog were rapidly reduced. I remember the smogs well. When the visibility dropped to [less] than a few meters, they stopped the buses and I had to walk. This was the 1950s. I had to walk home three miles from school. Again, breathing was a hazardous activity. But it was changed. It was changed by a decision. Good decisions can bring good results, striking results, quickly.
对于城市而言,一些事情确实要耗时良久, 但有些能更快地实现。 以我的家乡伦敦为例。 1952年,4000人在伦敦因烟雾丧生, 更多更多的人的身体因烟雾而受到严重损伤。 烟雾事件频频发生。 那些不在伦敦住的英国人 都知道伦敦过去被称为“雾都”。 这就是伦敦的情况。 但通过管控燃煤,几年之内, 烟雾问题得到极大改善。 我记得烟雾的样子, 当能见度降到几米以内, 公交车辆无法行驶,我不得不下车行走, 这是上世纪五十年代。 从学校到家,我不得不步行三英里。 还有,呼吸是一件危险活动。 但这已经改变了,由一项决策而变。 好的决策会在短时间内显著地带来良好的效果。 我们已经看到了更多的决策:在伦敦,引入拥堵费政策,
We've seen more: In London, we've introduced the congestion charge, actually quite quickly and effectively, and we've seen great improvements in the bus system, and cleaned up the bus system. You can see that the two transformations I've described, the structural and the climate, come very much together. But we have to invest. We have to invest in our cities, and we have to invest wisely, and if we do, we'll see cleaner cities, quieter cities, safer cities, more attractive cities, more productive cities, and stronger community in those cities — public transport, recycling, reusing, all sorts of things that bring communities together. We can do that, but we have to think, we have to invest, we have to plan.
这真的是立竿见影, 我们看到这项决策极大程度地改善公交系统, 并让公交系统变得清洁友好。 你们可以看到,我所描述的两项变革——结构和气候, 可以相辅相成。 但我们不得不投资,在我们的城市里投资, 而且我们必须明智地投资,如果我们做到了, 我们将看到更清洁的、更安静、更安全的城市, 更有吸引力、更有效率的城市, 城市中也会有更完善的社区—— 公共交通、废物回收利用, 所有的付出都会促进社区的发展。 我们可以实现,但我们要思考, 要投资,要做计划。
Let me turn to energy. Now, energy over the last 25 years has increased by about 50 percent. Eighty percent of that comes from fossil fuels. Over the next 20 years, perhaps it will increase by another 40 percent or so. We have to invest strongly in energy, we have to use it much more efficiently, and we have to make it clean. We can see how to do that. Take the example of California. It would be in the top 10 countries in the world if it was independent. I don't want to start any — (Laughter) California's a big place. (Laughter) In the next five or six years, they will likely move from around 20 percent in renewables — wind, solar and so on — to over 33 percent, and that would bring California back to greenhouse gas emissions in 2020 to where they were in 1990, a period when the economy in California would more or less have doubled. That's a striking achievement. It shows what can be done. Not just California — the incoming government of India is planning to get solar technology to light up the homes of 400 million people who don't have electricity in India. They've set themselves a target of five years. I think they've got a good chance of doing that. We'll see, but what you're seeing now is people moving much more quickly. Four hundred million, more than the population of the United States. Those are the kinds of ambitions now people are setting themselves in terms of rapidity of change. Again, you can see good decisions can bring quick results, and those two transformations, the economy and the structure and the climate and the low carbon, are intimately intertwined. Do the first one well, the structural, the second one on the climate becomes much easier.
我们再说能源。 过去25年间,能源的消耗增加了50%, 其中80%的来自化石燃料。 在未来20年内, 也许还会增加40%左右。 我们必须加大对能源的投资力度、 更有效地利用能源、 使用更多的清洁能源。 我们来看如何实现, 以加利福尼亚为例。 如果加州独立的话, 它的经济总量排名将在世界前十, 我不想引发任何—— (笑声) 加州“幅员辽阔”。 (笑声) 在未来五到六年, 加州所使用的清洁能源——风能,太阳能等——的比例 将从20%左右上升至33%以上, 这样的结果是,到2020年, 加州的温室气体排放量将回落至1990年的水平, 而相对1990年,到2020年时, 加州的经济总量将翻番。 这真是丰功伟业。 事实已证明这是可以实现的。 不仅是加州,印度新一届政府 正计划将太阳能送入民众家, 用于照明, 受惠的民众达4亿, 这些家庭目前没有电力供应。 他们已给自己制定了五年期目标, 我认为实现这一目标的前景乐观, 我们会见证的。 如今,我们已经看到人们在尤为积极地行动着, 4亿民众啊,这比美国人口都多。 这正是人们为迅速变革而许下的雄心壮志。 再次强调,你们可以看到, 好的决策会迅速看到成效, 另外,经济结构和气候、低碳这两项变革相辅相成。 如果前者,即经济变革进行顺利, 那气候变革也会容易许多。 我们再来看土地,
Look at land, land and particularly forests. Forests are the hosts to valuable plant and animal species. They hold water in the soil and they take carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere, fundamental to the tackling of climate change. But we're losing our forests. In the last decade, we've lost a forest area the size of Portugal, and much more has been degraded. But we're already seeing that we can do so much about that. We can recognize the problem, but we can also understand how to tackle it. In Brazil, the rate of deforestation has been reduced by 70 percent over the last 10 years. How? By involving local communities, investing in their agriculture and their economies, by monitoring more carefully, by enforcing the law more strictly.
土地,尤其是森林。 森林是孕育珍贵动植物的地方, 森林有助于土壤蓄水, 并吸收大气中的二氧化碳, 森林是气候变化的关键所在。 但森林在逐渐消失。 过去的十年内, 消失的森林的面积相当于葡萄牙的国土面积, 有更大面积的森林在退化。 但我们已知道, 我们可以为之做很多努力。 我们能发现问题,我们知道如何解决问题。 在巴西,过去的十年内,森林滥砍滥伐的速度已降低70%, 如何实现的? 通过联合当地的社区,投资农业和经济, 更严密地管控,更严格地实施法律。 带来的效益不只是阻止了滥砍滥伐。
And it's not just stopping deforestation. That's of course of first and fundamental importance, but it's also regrading degraded land, regenerating, rehabilitating degraded land. I first went to Ethiopia in 1967. It was desperately poor. In the following years, it suffered devastating famines and profoundly destructive social conflict. Over the last few years, actually more than a few, Ethiopia has been growing much more rapidly. It has ambitions to be a middle-income country 15 years from now and to be carbon neutral. Again, I think it's a strong ambition but it is a plausible one. You're seeing that commitment there. You're seeing what can be done. Ethiopia is investing in clean energy. It's working in the rehabilitation of land. In Humbo, in southwest Ethiopia, a wonderful project to plant trees on degraded land and work with local communities on sustainable forest management has led to big increases in living standards.
当然阻止滥砍滥伐是最重要的, 但这些举措也造福了退化的土地, 让这些土地再生,重新变得可以利用。 我1967年第一次去埃塞俄比亚, 当地的穷困令人绝望。在接下来的几年, 埃塞俄比亚经历了严重的饥荒和破坏性极强的社会动乱。 过去几年,事实上不止几年, 埃塞俄比亚发展飞快, 决心要在15年后成为中等收入的国家, 并达到碳平衡。 再次强调,我认为这是雄心壮志, 但是可以实现。 你们看到了他们的承诺,你们看到了是什么可以实现。 埃塞俄比亚正投资清洁能源, 致力于土地再生。 在埃塞俄比亚西南部Humbo市, 一项绝佳的项目显著地提升了居民生活水平, 该项目一方面在退化土地上种植树木, 另一方面与当地社区合作,致力于森林可持续发展管理。
So we can see, from Beijing to London, from California to India, from Brazil to Ethiopia, we do understand how to manage those two transformations, the structural and the climate. We do understand how to manage those well. And technology is changing very rapidly. I don't have to list all those things to an audience like this, but you can see the electric cars, you can see the batteries using new materials. You can see that we can manage remotely now our household appliances on our mobile phones when we're away. You can see better insulation. And there's much more coming.
所以我们可以看到,从北京到伦敦, 从加州到印度, 从巴西到埃塞俄比亚, 我们确实明白, 如何进行这两项变革——结构和气候。 我们确实明白如何有效地进行。 技术发展日新月异, 我不必向你们列举出全部的技术革新, 你们可以看到电动汽车, 你们可以看到利用新材料的电池, 你们可以看到如今当我们出门在外时, 能用手机远程控制家里的电器, 你们可以看到更好的隔热材料。 而且,远远不止这些。 但是,严重的问题在于,
But, and it's a big but, the world as a whole is moving far too slowly. We're not cutting emissions in the way we should. We're not managing those structural transformations as we can. The depth of understanding of the immense risks of climate change are not there yet. The depth of understanding of the attractiveness of what we can do is not there yet. We need political pressure to build. We need leaders to step up. We can have better growth, better climate, a better world. We can make, by managing those two transformations well, the next 100 years the best of centuries. If we make a mess of it, we, you and me, if we make a mess of it, if we don't manage those transformations properly, it will be, the next 100 years will be the worst of centuries. That's the major conclusion of the report on the economy and climate chaired by ex-President Felipe Calderón of Mexico, and I co-chaired that with him, and we handed that report yesterday here in New York, in the United Nations Building to the Secretary-General of the U.N., Ban Ki-moon. We know that we can do this.
世界作为一个整体的革新速度太慢了。 我们没有按照应有的方式减少排放, 我们没有尽我们所能开展结构变革。 气候变化潜在的巨大风险还没有被人们充分地认识, 我们能付出的努力的意义还没有被人们充分地理解。 政治压力需要施加, 领导者需要站出来, 我们才会让世界获得更好的发展、 拥有更好的气候和更美好的地球。 通过有效地进行这两项变革, 我们可以让下一个100年成为最好的世纪。 如果我们做得不好, 我们,你和我,如果做得不好, 如果我们没有有效地进行这两项变革, 下一个100年将成为最糟糕的世纪。 以上就是经济和气候研究报告的重要结论, 该研究报告由墨西哥前总统费利佩·卡尔德龙 和我共同牵头。 昨天在纽约的联合国大厦, 我们将这份报告呈交联合国秘书长潘基文。 我们知道可以实现目标。
Now, two weeks ago, I became a grandfather for the fourth time. Our daughter — (Baby cries) (Laughter) (Applause) — Our daughter gave birth to Rosa here in New York two weeks ago. Here are Helen and Rosa. (Applause) Two weeks old. Are we going to look our grandchildren in the eye and tell them that we understood the issues, that we recognized the dangers and the opportunities, and still we failed to act? Surely not. Let's make the next 100 years the best of centuries.
两周前, 我第四次成为祖父, 我的女儿—— (婴儿哭声)(笑声)(掌声)—— 两周前,我的女儿在纽约生了罗斯, 欢迎海伦和罗斯。 (掌声) 罗斯只有两周大, 我们会看着孙辈的眼睛, 告诉他们我们理解了世界的问题所在, 意识到了危险和机会所在, 但依然没能行动? 当然不会,让我们一起将下一个100年变成最好的世纪。 (掌声)
(Applause)