We are at a remarkable moment in time. We face over the next two decades two fundamental transformations that will determine whether the next 100 years is the best of centuries or the worst of centuries.
Živimo u izvanrednom trenutku. U naredne dve decenije, suočićemo se sa dve ključne transformacije koje će odrediti da li je narednih 100 godina najbolji ili najgori vek.
Let me illustrate with an example. I first visited Beijing 25 years ago to teach at the People's University of China. China was getting serious about market economics and about university education, so they decided to call in the foreign experts. Like most other people, I moved around Beijing by bicycle. Apart from dodging the occasional vehicle, it was a safe and easy way to get around. Cycling in Beijing now is a completely different prospect. The roads are jammed by cars and trucks. The air is dangerously polluted from the burning of coal and diesel. When I was there last in the spring, there was an advisory for people of my age — over 65 — to stay indoors and not move much.
Dozvolite mi da objasnim kroz primer. Prvi put sam posetio Peking pre 25 godina da bih predavao na Narodnom Univerzitetu u Kini. Kina se uozbiljila na polju tržišne ekonomije i univerzitetskog obrazovanja, stoga su odlučili da pozovu strane stručnjake. Kao i većina drugih ljudi, vozio sam se biciklom po Pekingu. Osim izbegavanja ponekog vozila, to je bio siguran i lak način za kretanje naokolo, Vožnja bicikla u Pekingu danas ima u potpunosti drugačije mogućnosti. Automobili i kamioni izazivaju zastoj na putevima. Vazduh je ozbiljno zagađen od sagorevanja uglja i dizel goriva. Kada sam prošlog proleća boravio tamo, savetovali su ljude mojih godina - starije od 65. godina - da ostanu u kućama i da se ne kreću previše.
How did this come about? It came from the way in which Beijing has grown as a city. It's doubled over those 25 years, more than doubled, from 10 million to 20 million. It's become a sprawling urban area dependent on dirty fuel, dirty energy, particularly coal. China burns half the world's coal each year, and that's why, it is a key reason why, it is the world's largest emitter of greenhouse gases. At the same time, we have to recognize that in that period China has grown remarkably. It has become the world's second largest economy. Hundreds of millions of people have been lifted out of poverty. That's really important. But at the same time, the people of China are asking the question: What's the value of this growth if our cities are unlivable? They've analyzed, diagnosed that this is an unsustainable path of growth and development. China's planning to scale back coal. It's looking to build its cities in different ways.
Kako se ovo dogodilo? Nastalo je iz načina na koji je Peking rastao kao grad. U prethodnih 25 godina udvostručio se broj stanovnika i više se udvostručio, sa 10 na 20 miliona. Postao je gradsko naselje koje je teško kontrolisati i koje zavisi od prljavog goriva, energije koja zagađuje, naročito od uglja. Kina koristi polovinu svetskih rezervi uglja svake godine i to je razlog, ključni razlog zašto, spada u svetske najveće emitere štetnih gasova. Istovremeno moramo da uočimo da se u tom periodu Kina značajno proširila. Postala je druga po redu svetska ekonomska sila. Stotine miliona ljudi je izašlo iz siromaštva. A to je veoma važno. Ali istovremeno, narod Kine postavlja ovo pitanje: koja je vrednost ovog napretka ako je nemoguće živeti u našim gradovima? Oni su analizirali i ustanovili da je ovo neodrživ put porasta i razvoja. Kina planira da smanji upotrebu uglja. Razmatra izgradnju gradova na drugačije načine.
Now, the growth of China is part of a dramatic change, fundamental change, in the structure of the world economy. Just 25 years ago, the developing countries, the poorer countries of the world, were, notwithstanding being the vast majority of the people, they accounted for only about a third of the world's output. Now it's more than half; 25 years from now, it will probably be two thirds from the countries that we saw 25 years ago as developing. That's a remarkable change. It means that most countries around the world, rich or poor, are going to be facing the two fundamental transformations that I want to talk about and highlight.
Sada, porast Kine je deo dramatične promene, promene iz korena. u strukturi svetske ekonomije. Samo pre 25 godina, zemlje u razvoju, siromašnije zemlje sveta, su bile, uprkos velikoj većini ljudi, činile su samo otprilike jednu trećinu svetske proizvodnje. Sada ima više od polovine, a za 25 godina, verovatno će biti dve trećine iz država koje smo pre 25 godina smatrali u razvoju. To je izvanredna promena. Znači da će se većina država širom sveta, bogatih ili siromašnih, suočiti sa dve korenite promene o kojima želim da govorim i koje želim da naglasim.
Now, the first of these transformations is the basic structural change of the economies and societies that I've already begun to illustrate through the description of Beijing. Fifty percent now in urban areas. That's going to go to 70 percent in 2050. Over the next two decades, we'll see the demand for energy rise by 40 percent, and the growth in the economy and in the population is putting increasing pressure on our land, on our water and on our forests.
Sad, prva od ovih promena je osnovna strukturna promena privrede i društava koje sam upravo počeo da opisujem kroz opis Pekinga. U gradskim sredinama trenutno ima 50% stanovnika, što će porasti na 70% do 2050. godine. U naredne dve decenije, videćemo zahtev za porastom proizvodnje energije za 40%, i porast privrede i broja stanovnika stavlja veliki pritisak na našu zemlju, vodene površine i šume.
This is profound structural change. If we manage it in a negligent or a shortsighted way, we will create waste, pollution, congestion, destruction of land and forests. If we think of those three areas that I have illustrated with my numbers — cities, energy, land — if we manage all that badly, then the outlook for the lives and livelihoods of the people around the world would be poor and damaged. And more than that, the emissions of greenhouse gases would rise, with immense risks to our climate. Concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are already higher than they've been for millions of years. If we go on increasing those concentrations, we risk temperatures over the next century or so that we have not seen on this planet for tens of millions of years. We've been around as Homo sapiens — that's a rather generous definition, sapiens — for perhaps a quarter of a million years, a quarter of a million. We risk temperatures we haven't seen for tens of millions of years over a century. That would transform the relationship between human beings and the planet. It would lead to changing deserts, changing rivers, changing patterns of hurricanes, changing sea levels, hundreds of millions of people, perhaps billions of people who would have to move, and if we've learned anything from history, that means severe and extended conflict.
Ovo je temeljna strukturna promena. Ako sa njom postupamo nemarno ili na kratkovidan način, stvorićemo đubre, zagađenje, gužvu u saobraćaju, uništenje zemlje i šuma. Ako pomislimo na one tri oblasti koje sam opisao uz brojeve - gradovi, energija, zemlja - ako sve to loše negujemo, onda će budućnost naših života i opstanka svih ljudi širom sveta biti siromašnije i oštećene. I više od toga, emisija štetnih gasova će porasti, sa ozbiljnim rizicima po klimu. Koncentracija štetnih gasova u atmosferi je već viša nego što je bila milionima godina. Ako nastavimo s povećanjem koncentracije gasova, rizikujemo da u narednom veku i posle nastanu temperature koje nisu viđene na ovoj planeti desetinama miliona godina. Postojimo kao Homo sapiens - to je prilično velikodušna definicija, sapiens - za možda četvrtinu miliona godina, jednu četvrtinu miliona. Rizikujemo da iskusimo temperature koje nismo videli desetinama miliona godina u jednom veku. To će izmeniti odnos između ljudskih bića i planete. Kao rezultat će imati promenu pustinja, reka, modela uragana, promene nivoa mora, stotine miliona ljudi, i možda milijarde onih, koji bi morali da se presele i ako nas je istorija ičemu naučila, to znači ozbiljne i nategnute sukobe.
And we couldn't just turn it off. You can't make a peace treaty with the planet. You can't negotiate with the laws of physics. You're in there. You're stuck. Those are the stakes we're playing for, and that's why we have to make this second transformation, the climate transformation, and move to a low-carbon economy. Now, the first of these transformations is going to happen anyway. We have to decide whether to do it well or badly, the economic, or structural, transformation. But the second of the transformations, the climate transformations, we have to decide to do. Those two transformations face us in the next two decades. The next two decades are decisive for what we have to do. Now, the more I've thought about this, the two transformations coming together, the more I've come to realize that this is an enormous opportunity. It's an opportunity which we can use or it's an opportunity which we can lose. And let me explain through those three key areas that I've identified: cities, energy and land. And let me start with cities. I've already described the problems of Beijing: pollution, congestion, waste and so on. Surely we recognize that in many of our cities around the world.
I mi nismo mogli tek tako da prekinemo. Ne možete potpisati mirovni sporazum sa planetom. Ne možete da pregovarate sa zakonima fizike. U tome ste i zaglavljeni ste. To su ulozi za koje igramo, i to je razlog zašto moramo da uradimo ovu drugu promenu, klimatsku promenu, i pređemo na privredu sa niskom potrošnjom ugljenika. Sad, prva od ovih promena će se svakako dogoditi. Moramo da odlučimo hoćemo li tu privrednu ili strukturnu promenu uraditi ispravno ili ne. Ali druga promena, klimatska promena, koju smo odlučili da sprovedemo. Sa te dve promene suočićemo se u naredne dve decenije. Te dve decenije su odlučujuće za ono što moramo da uradimo. Sad, što više razmišljam o tome te dve promene dolaze zajedno, i to ja više shvatam da je ovo velika prilika. To je jedna prilika koju možemo da iskoristimo ili da je izgubimo. I dozvolite da objasnim kroz one tri ključne oblasti koje sam odredio: gradovi, energija i zemljište. I dozvolite da počnem sa gradovima. Već sam opisao probleme Pekinga: zagađenje, gužva u saobraćaju, đubre, itd. Sigurno možemo da prepoznamo ove probleme u mnogim gradovima širom sveta.
Now, with cities, like life but particularly cities, you have to think ahead. The cities that are going to be built — and there are many, and many big ones — we have to think of how to design them in a compact way so we can save travel time and we can save energy. The cities that already are there, well established, we have to think about renewal and investment in them so that we can connect ourselves much better within those cities, and make it easier, encourage more people, to live closer to the center. We've got examples building around the world of the kinds of ways in which we can do that. The bus rapid transport system in Bogotá in Colombia is a very important case of how to move around safely and quickly in a non-polluting way in a city: very frequent buses, strongly protected routes, the same service, really, as an underground railway system, but much, much cheaper and can be done much more quickly, a brilliant idea in many more cities around the world that's developing.
Sad, sa gradovima, kao i životom, ali naročito gradovima morate unapred da razmišljate. Gradovi koji će se izgraditi - kao i mnogi, mnogi veliki gradovi - moramo da osmislimo način da ih izgradimo kompaktno kako bismo mogli da uštedimo vreme putovanja i energiju. Gradovi koji su već tamo, dobro sagrađeni, moramo da razmislimo o obnovi i ulaganjima u njih tako da možemo bolje da povežemo između gradova, i da olakšamo, ohrabrimo više ljudi da žive blizu centru. Imamo primere izgradnje širom sveta i načine na koje to možemo da uradimo. Brzi autobuski sistem u Bogoti u Kolumbiji je važan primer kako da putujemo sigurno i brzo, a da ne zagađujemo okolinu u gradu; redovniji autobusi strogo zaštićene rute, ista usluga, zaista, kao sistem podzemne železnice, ali mnogo, mnogo jeftiniji i može da se sprovede mnogo brže, izvanredna ideja koja se razvija u mnogim gradovima širom sveta.
Now, some things in cities do take time. Some things in cities can happen much more quickly. Take my hometown, London. In 1952, smog in London killed 4,000 people and badly damaged the lives of many, many more. And it happened all the time. For those of you live outside London in the U.K. will remember it used to be called The Smoke. That's the way London was. By regulating coal, within a few years the problems of smog were rapidly reduced. I remember the smogs well. When the visibility dropped to [less] than a few meters, they stopped the buses and I had to walk. This was the 1950s. I had to walk home three miles from school. Again, breathing was a hazardous activity. But it was changed. It was changed by a decision. Good decisions can bring good results, striking results, quickly.
Neke izmene u gradovima zahtevaju vremena. Neke izmene se mogu sprovesti mnogo brže. Uzmite za primer moj rodni grad, London. Godine 1952, od smoga je preminulo 4000 ljudi u Londonu i oštećeni su životi mnogih drugih. I događalo se stalno. Za vas koji živite van Londona, ali u Britaniji setićete se da smo ga zvali Dim. Takav je London bio. Ali regulisanjem uglja, u nekoliko godina, problemi sa smogom su se naglo smanjili. I dobro pamtim smog. Kada se vidljivost smanjila do manje od nekoliko metara, zaustavili bi autobuse i morao sam da pešačim. To je bilo 1950-ih. Morao sam da pešačim od škole 5 km do kuće. Opet, disanje je bilo opasna aktivnost. Ali se promenilo. A promenilo se odlukom. Dobre odluke donose dobre rezultate, izvanredne rezulate, brzo.
We've seen more: In London, we've introduced the congestion charge, actually quite quickly and effectively, and we've seen great improvements in the bus system, and cleaned up the bus system. You can see that the two transformations I've described, the structural and the climate, come very much together. But we have to invest. We have to invest in our cities, and we have to invest wisely, and if we do, we'll see cleaner cities, quieter cities, safer cities, more attractive cities, more productive cities, and stronger community in those cities — public transport, recycling, reusing, all sorts of things that bring communities together. We can do that, but we have to think, we have to invest, we have to plan.
Videli smo i više: i Londonu, uveli smo taksu za zastoj u saobraćaju, zapravo jako brzo i efikasno, i videli smo velike napretke u autobuskom sistemu, i raščistili smo autobuski sistem. Možete da vidite da ove dve promene, koje sam opisao, strukturne i klimatske, idu jedna uz drugu. Ali moramo da ulažemo. Moramo da ulažemo u gradove, i moramo da ulažemo pametno, a ako to uradimo imaćemo čistije gradove, tiše gradove, bezbednije gradove. mnogo privlačnije gradove, mnogo produktivnije gradove, i snažnije zajednice u ovim gradovima - gradski prevoz, reciklaža, ponovno korišćenje, sve izmene koje će udružiti zajednice. Mi to možemo, ali moramo da razmislimo, moramo da ulažemo i moramo da imamo plan,
Let me turn to energy. Now, energy over the last 25 years has increased by about 50 percent. Eighty percent of that comes from fossil fuels. Over the next 20 years, perhaps it will increase by another 40 percent or so. We have to invest strongly in energy, we have to use it much more efficiently, and we have to make it clean. We can see how to do that. Take the example of California. It would be in the top 10 countries in the world if it was independent. I don't want to start any — (Laughter) California's a big place. (Laughter) In the next five or six years, they will likely move from around 20 percent in renewables — wind, solar and so on — to over 33 percent, and that would bring California back to greenhouse gas emissions in 2020 to where they were in 1990, a period when the economy in California would more or less have doubled. That's a striking achievement. It shows what can be done. Not just California — the incoming government of India is planning to get solar technology to light up the homes of 400 million people who don't have electricity in India. They've set themselves a target of five years. I think they've got a good chance of doing that. We'll see, but what you're seeing now is people moving much more quickly. Four hundred million, more than the population of the United States. Those are the kinds of ambitions now people are setting themselves in terms of rapidity of change. Again, you can see good decisions can bring quick results, and those two transformations, the economy and the structure and the climate and the low carbon, are intimately intertwined. Do the first one well, the structural, the second one on the climate becomes much easier.
Dozvolite mi da se vratim na energiju. Sad, energija je u prethodnih 25 godina porasla za oko 50%. Od toga 80% potiče iz fosilnih goriva. U narednih 20 godina, možda će se povećati za još oko 40%. Moramo mnogo da ulažemo u energiju, moramo da je koristimo efikasnije, i moramo da je napravimo čistijom. Možemo da vidimo način. Uzmimo primer Kalifornije. Bila bi deset najboljih država u svetu da je nezavisna. Ne želim da započinjem ništa - (Smeh) Kalifornija je veliko mesto. (Smeh) U narednih pet ili šest godina, verovatno će preći sa skoro 20% u vrstama obnovljive energije - vetar, sunce itd. - na preko 33%, i to će povratiti Kaliforniju na emisiju štetnih gasova u 2020. godini do mesta gde su bili 1990. godine, period kada bi se privreda u Kaliforniji manje - više udvostrčila. To je izvanredno ostvarenje. Pokazuje šta može da se uradi. Ne samo Kalifornija, već nadolazeća vlada Indije planira da dobije solarnu tehnologiju da osvetli domove 400 miliona ljudi koji nemaju struju u Indiji. Postavili su sebi cilj da to urade za 5 godina. Mislim da imaju dobre šanse da uspeju. Videćemo, ali ono što vidimo sada je da se ljudi sele mnogo brže. Četiri stotine miliona, što je više od broja stanovnika SAD-a. To su one ambicije sada koje ljudi postavljaju sebi u odnosu na brzinu promene. Opet, možete videti da dobre odluke mogu doneti brze rezultate, i ove dve promene, privreda i struktura, klima i smanjenje ugljenika, su međusobno isprepletane. Uradite prvu kako treba, tu strukturnu, i druga koja se tiče klime postaje mnogo jednostavnija.
Look at land, land and particularly forests. Forests are the hosts to valuable plant and animal species. They hold water in the soil and they take carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere, fundamental to the tackling of climate change. But we're losing our forests. In the last decade, we've lost a forest area the size of Portugal, and much more has been degraded. But we're already seeing that we can do so much about that. We can recognize the problem, but we can also understand how to tackle it. In Brazil, the rate of deforestation has been reduced by 70 percent over the last 10 years. How? By involving local communities, investing in their agriculture and their economies, by monitoring more carefully, by enforcing the law more strictly.
Pogledajte u zemlju, zemljište i naročito šume. Šume su staništa za dragocene biljne i životinjske vrste. One čuvaju vodu u zemljištu i uzimaju ugljen dioksid iz atmosfere, značajan za rešavanje klimatske promene. Ali mi gubimo naše šume. U prethodnoj deceniji, izgubili smo površine pod šumom u veličini Portugala, i mnogo više je degradirano. Ali već vidimo da možemo mnogo da uradimo povodom toga. Možemo da prepoznamo problem, ali takođe možemo da razumemo kako da ga rešimo. U Brazilu, stopa krčenja šuma smanjila se za 70% u prethodnih 10 godina. Kako? Uključivanjem lokalnih zajednica, ulaganjem u poljoprivredu i gazdinstva, uz pažljivije nadgledanje, i strožu primenu zakona.
And it's not just stopping deforestation. That's of course of first and fundamental importance, but it's also regrading degraded land, regenerating, rehabilitating degraded land. I first went to Ethiopia in 1967. It was desperately poor. In the following years, it suffered devastating famines and profoundly destructive social conflict. Over the last few years, actually more than a few, Ethiopia has been growing much more rapidly. It has ambitions to be a middle-income country 15 years from now and to be carbon neutral. Again, I think it's a strong ambition but it is a plausible one. You're seeing that commitment there. You're seeing what can be done. Ethiopia is investing in clean energy. It's working in the rehabilitation of land. In Humbo, in southwest Ethiopia, a wonderful project to plant trees on degraded land and work with local communities on sustainable forest management has led to big increases in living standards.
I to nije samo zaustavljanje krčenja šuma. To je naravno od prve i osnovne važnosti, ali se takođe tiče vraćanja degradiranog zemljišta, regenerisanja, obnavljanja degradiranog zemljišta. Prvi put sam posetio Etiopiju 1967. Bila je strašno siromašna. U narednim godinama, patila je od razornih nestašica hrane i prilično destruktivnih društvenih sukoba. U prethodnih nekoliko godina, zapravo više nego nekoliko, Etiopija je napredovala mnogo brže. Imala je ambicije da postane država osrednjeg prihoda, u narednih 15 godina i da postane neutralna po pitanju ugljenika. Opet, mislim da je to snažna ambicija ali je primenljiva. Vidite tu obavezu ovde. Vidite šta je moguće učiniti. Etiopija investira u čistu energiju. Radi na rehabilitaciji zemljišta. U Humbu, jugozapadnoj Etiopiji, predivan projekat za sadnju drveća na degradiranom zemljištu i rad sa lokalnim zajednicama o održivom upravljanju šumama doveo je do velikog porasta životnog standarda.
So we can see, from Beijing to London, from California to India, from Brazil to Ethiopia, we do understand how to manage those two transformations, the structural and the climate. We do understand how to manage those well. And technology is changing very rapidly. I don't have to list all those things to an audience like this, but you can see the electric cars, you can see the batteries using new materials. You can see that we can manage remotely now our household appliances on our mobile phones when we're away. You can see better insulation. And there's much more coming.
Stoga možemo da vidimo, od Pekinga do Londona, od Kalifornije do Indije, od Brazila do Etiopije, da zaista razumemo kako da upravljamo ovim dvema promenama, strukturnom i klimatskom. Mi zaista razumemo kako njima dobro da upravljamo. A tehnologija se veoma brzo menja. Ne moram da takve podatke nabrojim publici kao što je ova, ali možete da vidite električne automobile, možete da vidite baterije koje koriste nove materijale. Možete da vidite da sada možemo da upravljamo iz daljine kućnim aparatima preko mobilnih telefona, kada smo odsutni. Možete da vidite bolju izolaciju. l mnogo toga što tek dolazi.
But, and it's a big but, the world as a whole is moving far too slowly. We're not cutting emissions in the way we should. We're not managing those structural transformations as we can. The depth of understanding of the immense risks of climate change are not there yet. The depth of understanding of the attractiveness of what we can do is not there yet. We need political pressure to build. We need leaders to step up. We can have better growth, better climate, a better world. We can make, by managing those two transformations well, the next 100 years the best of centuries. If we make a mess of it, we, you and me, if we make a mess of it, if we don't manage those transformations properly, it will be, the next 100 years will be the worst of centuries. That's the major conclusion of the report on the economy and climate chaired by ex-President Felipe Calderón of Mexico, and I co-chaired that with him, and we handed that report yesterday here in New York, in the United Nations Building to the Secretary-General of the U.N., Ban Ki-moon. We know that we can do this.
Ali, tu je i to veliko ali, svet kao celina se kreće jako sporo. Mi ne smanjujemo emisiju gasova, onako kako bi trebalo. Ne upravljamo tim strukturnim promenama kako možemo. Ozbiljno shvatanje ove velike rizike klimatske promene još uvek nije prisutno. Ozbiljno shvatanje privlačnih izmena koje možemo da uradimo još uvek nije prisutno. Potrebno je da izgradimo politički pritisak. Potrebno je da se vođe istaknu. Možemo imati veći razvoj, bolju klimu, bolji svet. Uz dobro upravljanje ovim dvema promenama, možemo sledećih 100 godina načiniti najboljim vekom od svih do sada. Ako napravimo nered od toga, mi, vi i ja, ako bismo to uradili, ako nepravilno upotrebimo ove promene, narednih 100 godina biće najgori vek. To je veliki zaključak izveštaja o privredi i klimi kojeg je doneo bivši meksički predsednik Felipe Kalderon zajedno sa mnom, i juče smo predali izveštaj ovde u Njujorku, u zgradi Ujedinjenih nacija Generalnom sekretaru UN-a, Ban Ki Munu. Mi znamo da to možemo da uradimo.
Now, two weeks ago, I became a grandfather for the fourth time. Our daughter — (Baby cries) (Laughter) (Applause) — Our daughter gave birth to Rosa here in New York two weeks ago. Here are Helen and Rosa. (Applause) Two weeks old. Are we going to look our grandchildren in the eye and tell them that we understood the issues, that we recognized the dangers and the opportunities, and still we failed to act? Surely not. Let's make the next 100 years the best of centuries.
Sad, pre dve nedelje, postao sam deda po četvrti put. Naša ćerka - (Beba plače) (Smeh) (Aplauz) - Naša ćerka je rodila Rozu ovde u Njujorku pre dve nedelje. Ovde su Helen i Roza. (Aplauz) Dve nedelje stara. Da li ćemo da gledamo naše unučiće u oči i reći im da smo razumeli probleme, da smo prepoznali opasnosti i mogućnosti i da nismo delovali? Naravno da ne. Hajde da narednih 100 godina napravimo najboljim vekom.
(Applause)
(Aplauz)